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2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference Barcelona, 12 May 2015

2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

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Page 1: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference Barcelona, 12 May 2015

Page 2: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Forward looking statements

This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “continues”, “assumes”, “is subject to”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “aims”, “forecasts”, “risks”, “intends”, “positioned”, “predicts”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “should”, “shall”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy.

By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those discussed in the Principal Risks and Uncertainties in Glencore’s Annual Report 2014.

Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements which only speak as of the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date.

No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share.

This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.

2

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Summary

The mining sector is suffering a crisis of confidence • Oversupplying markets regardless of demand is damaging the credibility of the industry • Worst performing sector over the last twelve months – Commodity investment flows now $60bn below their 2012 peak – Prices, equities and credit ratings all impacted

Supply/Demand fundamentals matter

• Critical to understand the evolution of supply and demand • Key emerging markets are maturing – the demand cycle will transition away from early cycle

towards medium and late cycle commodities as fixed asset investments are completed

Not all commodities are equal – differentiation is crucial • Our key commodities are in deficit or transitioning towards deficit

Glencore – by far the most diversified resources company

• Unrivalled marketing business and geographic footprint • Significant operational leverage when prices inevitably recover • Leading positions and growth optionality in the right commodities • Owner management team with a commitment to return excess capital - $9.3bn since IPO

3

Page 4: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Tintaya concentrator, Peru

Where are we ?

Page 5: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

12 months ago … the mining sector was looking more positive

• Management change across the majors was providing a more disciplined focus

• Mining sector underperformance was reducing

• Plans for significant capex cuts and shareholder distributions

5 Source: Glencore presentation at 2014 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference, Miami, May 2014.

Page 6: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Today, the worst performing sector

6

Last 12 months: indices, mining lagging the market Funds are flowing out of the sector ($bn) (1)

Last 12 months: prices (oversupply in bulk) Last 12 months: major mining peers

Source: Bloomberg, 6 May 2015. (1) Barclays, The Commodity Investor, 15 April 2015

5%

17%

9% 6%

1%

(17%) (17%) (19%) -25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Sto

xx G

loba

l 180

0

Tech

nolo

gy

Aut

os

Rea

l Est

ate

Sto

xx E

urop

e M

inin

g

Bas

ic R

esou

rces

Oil

& G

as

HS

BC

Glo

bal M

inin

g

-41.9%

-36.7%

-24.8% -20.3%

-5.4%

9.3%

16.3%

-38.8%

-31.3%

-25.2%

-16.6%

-6.4%

-1.5%

Iron

ore

Oil

Ther

mal

C

oal

Nic

kel

Cop

per

Zinc

Al

Pee

r 1 P

eer 2

Pee

r 3

Pee

r 4

Pee

r 5

Gle

ncor

e

66

80

103

55 35 40 44

42

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15

Cumulative commodity

investment flows since 2010

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40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

May14

Jun14

Jul 14 Aug14

Sep14

Oct14

Nov14

Dec14

Jan15

Feb15

Mar15

Apr15

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

May14

Jun14

Jul14

Aug14

Sep14

Oct14

Nov14

Dec14

Jan15

Feb15

Mar15

Apr15

Today, the worst performing sector

7

Significant reduction in earnings forecasts .. .. credit ratings and CDS(1) also impacted

Peer 1

Peer 2 GLEN

Peer 3 2015 forecast net income

GLEN

Peer 3

Peer 2 Peer 1

Source: Bloomberg, 6 May 2015. (1) 5 year CDS, 6 May 2014=100

Peer 4

Page 8: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Copper Zinc Aluminium Nickel Thermal Coal Iron Ore Oil

Annual average 2011 to 20142015F

Demand favours base over bulks again in 2015 …

8 Source: Glencore estimates, various broker reports, Wood Mackenzie.

Global demand growth

Page 9: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

… but ignore demand and market balance at your peril

9

“If we don’t supply it, somebody else will”

“This is rational, normal economics”

“..the fundamentals have not changed. Prices don’t dip down to tier one levels, it just doesn’t happen.”

“… we are winning huge benefits for shareholders”

“our iron ore strategy makes perfect commercial sense”

“We’re doing this because it makes sound economic sense”

“We have the opportunity to substantially increase our iron ore production through productivity and getting more out of the existing infrastructure” “You tell me the logic of

pouring iron ore into a depressed market. That is not commercially sound”

“I’m not quite sure why anyone would want to be the last man standing in a low-price, low-return environment”

Source: Bloomberg; The Australian; Management Today.

Page 10: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Wheat crop in Bute, Australia

Differentiation by commodity is crucial

Page 11: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

36% 5% 7% 5% 42%

Coal Rebalancing Some supply shutting and new investment delayed. Coal essential to meet energy demand

Our key commodities …

• Accounted for 95% of EBIT in 2014 • Market balances for many of our commodities are transitioning into deficit

11 Data: 2014 Adjusted EBIT.

Cu Deficit “Consensus” surplus elusive so far, increasing downside risk to supply in 2015/16

Zn Deficit An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the next 5 years to balance the market

Marketing Resilient Defensive earnings, less sensitive to falling prices. Benefits from own source production

Ni Transitioning to deficit Balanced 2015 and deficits thereafter; substantial from 2018

Page 12: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Early Cycle Mid Cycle Late Cycle

12

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

Significant Glencore exposure to mid and late demand cycle commodities

Source: UBS, weighted by contribution to 2018F EBITDA

Copper Zinc Nickel Aluminium Lead

Oil & Gas PGMs Diamonds Thermal Coal

Iron Ore Coking coal Manganese

… underpining the maturing growth of emerging economies …

Page 13: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

13 Source: UBS, Glencore estimates, company reports, broker reports, 2018F surplus/(deficit) for each commodity calculated as a percentage of 2018F demand and applied to respective 2018F EBITDA. Peer 1: 10.0%, Peer 2: 9.3%, Peer 3 5.7%, Peer 4: 0.5%, Glencore: -3%.

2018F weighted average commodity surplus / (deficit)

… provides us with the right commodities mix

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

Com

mod

ities

in s

urpl

us a

s a

% o

f dem

and

wei

ghte

d by

EBI

TDA

Com

mod

ities

in

defic

it as

a %

of

dem

and

wei

ghte

d by

EB

ITD

A

Page 14: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Conclusions

14

The mining sector is suffering a crisis of confidence • Oversupplying markets regardless of demand is damaging the credibility of the industry • Worst performing sector over the last twelve months

Supply/Demand fundamentals matter

• Critical to understand the evolution of supply and demand • Key emerging markets are maturing – the demand cycle will transition away from early cycle

towards medium and late cycle

Not all commodities are equal – differentiation is crucial • Our key commodities are in deficit or transitioning towards deficit

Glencore – by far the most diversified resources company

• Unrivalled marketing business and geographic footprint • Significant operational leverage when prices inevitably recover • Leading positions and growth optionality in the right commodities • Owner management team with a commitment to return excess capital - $9.3bn since IPO

Page 15: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Asturiana de Zinc, electrolysis plant, Spain

Q&A

DVM

Page 16: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Alumbrera copper concentrator, Argentina

Appendix

Page 17: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Sustainability and governance

Safety • Regrettably 16 fatalities in 2014 (26 in 2013) • Reduction on 2013 reflects ‘SafeWork’ focus on safety

leadership, culture and implementation of Fatal Hazard Protocols

• 118,000 employees completed “SafeWork” awareness

Governance • Consolidation of Board: A. Hayward, Chair; P. Grauer

SID; Patrice Merrin, new NED • Reviewed Code of Conduct and policies on bribery and

corruption, human rights and position on carbon. Re-issued in 2015

External Recognition and Memberships

• ICMM, UN Global Compact, EITI, PACI (Partnering Against Corruption Initiative – World Economic Forum)

• Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights • Mopani Copper awarded “Company of the Year” from

Zambia for EITI reporting transparency

17

LTIFR(1) 2009 to 2014 2.96

2.74

2.49

2.06

1.87

1.58

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: (1) Lost time incidents (LTIs) are recorded when an employee or contractor is unable to work following an incident. In the past Glencore recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next calendar day after the incident whilst Xstrata recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next rostered day after the incident - therefore the combined LTI figure is not based on data of consistent definition (historically, prior to merger). From 2014 Glencore records LTIs when an incident results in lost days from the first rostered day absent after the day of the injury. The day of the injury is not included. LTIFR is the total number of LTIs recorded per million working hours. LTIs do not include Restricted Work Injuries (RWI) and fatalities (fatalities were included up to 2013). Historic data has been restated to exclude fatalities and to reflect data collection improvements.

47% reduction

Page 18: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

18 Source: Wood Mackenzie

Mined copper head grades at twice the reserve grade are not sustainable

Growing risks to long-term copper supply

Mined copper head grade

Reserve grade

Forecast

Page 19: 2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conferencec76ca3c5-1d30-4c1... · 5/12/2015  · risk to supply in 2015/16 . Zn . Deficit . An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the

Chinese GDP growth rate is falling

19 Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files

Chinese GDP Growth y-o-y (percent)

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Chinese yearly GDP Growth is much larger today in absolute terms

20 Source: Bloomberg

Chinese GDP (current $bn)

2006 vs 2005: $2.3tn x 20.2% = $450bn

2014 vs 2013: $9.2tn x 7.4% = $680bn

2015 @ 5% 2015 @ 6% 2015 @ 7%