Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2015 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference Barcelona, 12 May 2015
Forward looking statements
This document contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward looking statements” which are prospective in nature. These forward looking statements may be identified by the use of forward looking terminology, or the negative thereof such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “continues”, “assumes”, “is subject to”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “aims”, “forecasts”, “risks”, “intends”, “positioned”, “predicts”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words or comparable terminology and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “should”, “shall”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. Such statements are qualified in their entirety by the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding future expectations. Forward-looking statements are not based on historical facts, but rather on current predictions, expectations, beliefs, opinions, plans, objectives, goals, intentions and projections about future events, results of operations, prospects, financial condition and discussions of strategy.
By their nature, forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Glencore’s control. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and may and often do differ materially from actual results. Important factors that could cause these uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those discussed in the Principal Risks and Uncertainties in Glencore’s Annual Report 2014.
Neither Glencore nor any of its associates or directors, officers or advisers, provides any representation, assurance or guarantee that the occurrence of the events expressed or implied in any forward looking statements in this document will actually occur. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements which only speak as of the date of this document. Other than in accordance with its legal or regulatory obligations (including under the UK Listing Rules and the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the Financial Conduct Authority and the Rules Governing the Listing of Securities on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and the Listing Requirements of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Limited), Glencore is not under any obligation and Glencore and its affiliates expressly disclaim any intention, obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This document shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in the business or affairs of Glencore since the date of this document or that the information contained herein is correct as at any time subsequent to its date.
No statement in this document is intended as a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this document should be interpreted to mean that earnings per Glencore share for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings per Glencore share.
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for any securities. The making of this document does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities.
2
Summary
The mining sector is suffering a crisis of confidence • Oversupplying markets regardless of demand is damaging the credibility of the industry • Worst performing sector over the last twelve months – Commodity investment flows now $60bn below their 2012 peak – Prices, equities and credit ratings all impacted
Supply/Demand fundamentals matter
• Critical to understand the evolution of supply and demand • Key emerging markets are maturing – the demand cycle will transition away from early cycle
towards medium and late cycle commodities as fixed asset investments are completed
Not all commodities are equal – differentiation is crucial • Our key commodities are in deficit or transitioning towards deficit
Glencore – by far the most diversified resources company
• Unrivalled marketing business and geographic footprint • Significant operational leverage when prices inevitably recover • Leading positions and growth optionality in the right commodities • Owner management team with a commitment to return excess capital - $9.3bn since IPO
3
Tintaya concentrator, Peru
Where are we ?
12 months ago … the mining sector was looking more positive
• Management change across the majors was providing a more disciplined focus
• Mining sector underperformance was reducing
• Plans for significant capex cuts and shareholder distributions
5 Source: Glencore presentation at 2014 Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference, Miami, May 2014.
Today, the worst performing sector
6
Last 12 months: indices, mining lagging the market Funds are flowing out of the sector ($bn) (1)
Last 12 months: prices (oversupply in bulk) Last 12 months: major mining peers
Source: Bloomberg, 6 May 2015. (1) Barclays, The Commodity Investor, 15 April 2015
5%
17%
9% 6%
1%
(17%) (17%) (19%) -25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Sto
xx G
loba
l 180
0
Tech
nolo
gy
Aut
os
Rea
l Est
ate
Sto
xx E
urop
e M
inin
g
Bas
ic R
esou
rces
Oil
& G
as
HS
BC
Glo
bal M
inin
g
-41.9%
-36.7%
-24.8% -20.3%
-5.4%
9.3%
16.3%
-38.8%
-31.3%
-25.2%
-16.6%
-6.4%
-1.5%
Iron
ore
Oil
Ther
mal
C
oal
Nic
kel
Cop
per
Zinc
Al
Pee
r 1 P
eer 2
Pee
r 3
Pee
r 4
Pee
r 5
Gle
ncor
e
66
80
103
55 35 40 44
42
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Cumulative commodity
investment flows since 2010
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
May14
Jun14
Jul 14 Aug14
Sep14
Oct14
Nov14
Dec14
Jan15
Feb15
Mar15
Apr15
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
May14
Jun14
Jul14
Aug14
Sep14
Oct14
Nov14
Dec14
Jan15
Feb15
Mar15
Apr15
Today, the worst performing sector
7
Significant reduction in earnings forecasts .. .. credit ratings and CDS(1) also impacted
Peer 1
Peer 2 GLEN
Peer 3 2015 forecast net income
GLEN
Peer 3
Peer 2 Peer 1
Source: Bloomberg, 6 May 2015. (1) 5 year CDS, 6 May 2014=100
Peer 4
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Copper Zinc Aluminium Nickel Thermal Coal Iron Ore Oil
Annual average 2011 to 20142015F
Demand favours base over bulks again in 2015 …
8 Source: Glencore estimates, various broker reports, Wood Mackenzie.
Global demand growth
… but ignore demand and market balance at your peril
9
“If we don’t supply it, somebody else will”
“This is rational, normal economics”
“..the fundamentals have not changed. Prices don’t dip down to tier one levels, it just doesn’t happen.”
“… we are winning huge benefits for shareholders”
“our iron ore strategy makes perfect commercial sense”
“We’re doing this because it makes sound economic sense”
“We have the opportunity to substantially increase our iron ore production through productivity and getting more out of the existing infrastructure” “You tell me the logic of
pouring iron ore into a depressed market. That is not commercially sound”
“I’m not quite sure why anyone would want to be the last man standing in a low-price, low-return environment”
Source: Bloomberg; The Australian; Management Today.
Wheat crop in Bute, Australia
Differentiation by commodity is crucial
36% 5% 7% 5% 42%
Coal Rebalancing Some supply shutting and new investment delayed. Coal essential to meet energy demand
Our key commodities …
• Accounted for 95% of EBIT in 2014 • Market balances for many of our commodities are transitioning into deficit
11 Data: 2014 Adjusted EBIT.
Cu Deficit “Consensus” surplus elusive so far, increasing downside risk to supply in 2015/16
Zn Deficit An additional 3-3.5Mt of zinc supply needed over the next 5 years to balance the market
Marketing Resilient Defensive earnings, less sensitive to falling prices. Benefits from own source production
Ni Transitioning to deficit Balanced 2015 and deficits thereafter; substantial from 2018
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Early Cycle Mid Cycle Late Cycle
12
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4
Significant Glencore exposure to mid and late demand cycle commodities
Source: UBS, weighted by contribution to 2018F EBITDA
Copper Zinc Nickel Aluminium Lead
Oil & Gas PGMs Diamonds Thermal Coal
Iron Ore Coking coal Manganese
… underpining the maturing growth of emerging economies …
13 Source: UBS, Glencore estimates, company reports, broker reports, 2018F surplus/(deficit) for each commodity calculated as a percentage of 2018F demand and applied to respective 2018F EBITDA. Peer 1: 10.0%, Peer 2: 9.3%, Peer 3 5.7%, Peer 4: 0.5%, Glencore: -3%.
2018F weighted average commodity surplus / (deficit)
… provides us with the right commodities mix
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4
Com
mod
ities
in s
urpl
us a
s a
% o
f dem
and
wei
ghte
d by
EBI
TDA
Com
mod
ities
in
defic
it as
a %
of
dem
and
wei
ghte
d by
EB
ITD
A
Conclusions
14
The mining sector is suffering a crisis of confidence • Oversupplying markets regardless of demand is damaging the credibility of the industry • Worst performing sector over the last twelve months
Supply/Demand fundamentals matter
• Critical to understand the evolution of supply and demand • Key emerging markets are maturing – the demand cycle will transition away from early cycle
towards medium and late cycle
Not all commodities are equal – differentiation is crucial • Our key commodities are in deficit or transitioning towards deficit
Glencore – by far the most diversified resources company
• Unrivalled marketing business and geographic footprint • Significant operational leverage when prices inevitably recover • Leading positions and growth optionality in the right commodities • Owner management team with a commitment to return excess capital - $9.3bn since IPO
Asturiana de Zinc, electrolysis plant, Spain
Q&A
DVM
Alumbrera copper concentrator, Argentina
Appendix
Sustainability and governance
Safety • Regrettably 16 fatalities in 2014 (26 in 2013) • Reduction on 2013 reflects ‘SafeWork’ focus on safety
leadership, culture and implementation of Fatal Hazard Protocols
• 118,000 employees completed “SafeWork” awareness
Governance • Consolidation of Board: A. Hayward, Chair; P. Grauer
SID; Patrice Merrin, new NED • Reviewed Code of Conduct and policies on bribery and
corruption, human rights and position on carbon. Re-issued in 2015
External Recognition and Memberships
• ICMM, UN Global Compact, EITI, PACI (Partnering Against Corruption Initiative – World Economic Forum)
• Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights • Mopani Copper awarded “Company of the Year” from
Zambia for EITI reporting transparency
17
LTIFR(1) 2009 to 2014 2.96
2.74
2.49
2.06
1.87
1.58
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Note: (1) Lost time incidents (LTIs) are recorded when an employee or contractor is unable to work following an incident. In the past Glencore recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next calendar day after the incident whilst Xstrata recorded LTIs which resulted in lost days from the next rostered day after the incident - therefore the combined LTI figure is not based on data of consistent definition (historically, prior to merger). From 2014 Glencore records LTIs when an incident results in lost days from the first rostered day absent after the day of the injury. The day of the injury is not included. LTIFR is the total number of LTIs recorded per million working hours. LTIs do not include Restricted Work Injuries (RWI) and fatalities (fatalities were included up to 2013). Historic data has been restated to exclude fatalities and to reflect data collection improvements.
47% reduction
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2009 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025
18 Source: Wood Mackenzie
Mined copper head grades at twice the reserve grade are not sustainable
Growing risks to long-term copper supply
Mined copper head grade
Reserve grade
Forecast
Chinese GDP growth rate is falling
19 Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files
Chinese GDP Growth y-o-y (percent)
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chinese yearly GDP Growth is much larger today in absolute terms
20 Source: Bloomberg
Chinese GDP (current $bn)
2006 vs 2005: $2.3tn x 20.2% = $450bn
2014 vs 2013: $9.2tn x 7.4% = $680bn
2015 @ 5% 2015 @ 6% 2015 @ 7%