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Publication details Published by:

Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, PO Box 1752, Shepparton 3632 © Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, 2016. Please cite this document as: GBCMA (2016). Goulburn River Seasonal Watering Proposal 2016-2017. Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Shepparton. Disclaimer:

This publication may be of assistance to you, but the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority does not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequences which may arise from you relying on information in this publication. It should be noted that specific reference to funding levels in this strategy are for indicative purposes only. The level of Government investment in this plan is contingent on budgets and government priorities. For further information, please contact:

Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority P.O. Box 1752, Shepparton 3632 Ph (03) 5822 7700 or visit: www.gbcma.vic.gov.au

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Executive summary This proposal is for the use of available water in the Goulburn River to maximise environmental flow related outcomes in 2016-17. The proposal is for the Goulburn River between Lake Eildon and the confluence of the Murray River. The section below Goulburn Weir has the most altered flow regime and hence has a large proportion of deliverable flow objectives. Delivering flows to this reach also provides recommended benefits to the reach between Lake Eildon and Goulburn Weir.

The Goulburn River, its floodplain and wetland habitats support intact river red gum forests, and numerous threatened species such as Murray cod, Trout cod, Macquarie perch and Eastern Great egret. The region also contains many important cultural heritage sites, provides water for agriculture and urban centres, and supports a variety of recreational activities such as fishing, boating and camping. Conditions leading into 2016-17 have been characterised by a thirteen year drought between 1997 and 2010, floods and very wet conditions in 2010-11, and a subsequent series of three dry years. Floods in 2010-11 left river banks bare of vegetation. Following targeted environmental releases in 2015-16, recovery of bank vegetation has occurred, especially amphibious and aquatic plants low on the bank. Vegetation recovery is still spatially patchy and ideally should improve higher up the bank. Since 2010-11 environmental water releases have allowed most priority environmental flow components to be met. In 2015-16 some of the lower priorities were not met due to lower water allocations than in recent years.

The focus for 2016-17 is to continue to pursue vegetation and fish objectives in the lower Goulburn River by implementing baseflows and freshes, particularly in spring and autumn. Fish objectives are achieved by providing a baseflow of 500 and 540 ML/day at Murchison and McCoys Bridge respectively throughout the year as well as potentially one short spring/summer fresh to stimulate Golden perch breeding. Vegetation objectives are provided by implementing a two week fresh in September/October (where water is available) to maintain existing plants, and promote the establishment of new seed/plants in the growing season and a shorter duration autumn fresh to maintain vegetation and encourage germination. An additional fresh may be provided in summer to encourage migration of native fish into the Goulburn River. The ability to deliver this fresh is reliant on a number of factors and is given a low priority in 2016-17. For freshes, the priority is to provide spring and autumn freshes to target bank vegetation. Given the progress made in the last two year in re establishing flood tolerant and amphibious lower bank vegetation, it is important to capitalise on this initial investment and continue to encourage re-establishment. The freshes would also achieve macroinvertebrate objectives such as resuspension of fine sediment from macroinvertebrate habitats. Where water is limited, the 2016 spring period is most important, followed by the 2016-17 summer/autumn period (summer is potentially more biologically productive than winter) and then the 2017 winter period. A winter fresh (e.g. June) is desirable to encourage bank vegetation, and to improve macroinvertebrate habitat. It can often be provided by catchment runoff, but in a dry winter it would be desirable to deliver this fresh with environmental water where available. Avoidance of environmental damage (bank slumping and biota stranding) from rapid falls in water level from environmental freshes or other flows is provided by managing rates of rise and fall and potentially using environmental water to slow rates of fall of unregulated flows. The feasibility of delivering overbank flows, including how best to deliver or supplement natural flows whilst avoiding

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damage to public and private assets requires further investigation and is being considered via the MDBA constraints project. Therefore, overbank flows will not be delivered in the immediate future.

This proposal considers environmental water management under a range of possible climate scenarios from extremely dry to wet. The priority watering actions that could be met under the climate scenarios are outlined in the table below. Under dry conditions, the majority of the available water is targeted to meet baseflows throughout the year and meet requirements for the 2016 spring vegetation watering. Inter-Valley Transfers offer the opportunity to meet some of the summer/autumn baseflow needs. In the wetter scenarios, Inter-Valley Transfers may not reliably provide all required summer flows and some environmental water will be needed to fill gaps left in the flow regime. Under the average to wetter scenarios, winter/spring flow needs are partially provided by catchment runoff, resulting in use of environmental water progressively transitioning to lower priority flow components. Low inflows over the last two seasons has led to reduced storage levels. Average inflow is required to achieve significant early season allocations and provide water for use. In 2016-17, carryover of Commonwealth water is likely to be available to deliver baseflows in winter and part of spring 2016. Unless provided by significant natural flows a winter fresh will not be delivered. Consequently, it is proposed to commence 2016-17 by delivering baseflows of 500 ML/day at Murchison. Summary of environmental priority watering events provided under each climate scenario

Priority Environmental Objective Climate Scenario

Extreme Dry

Dry Below

Average Average Wet

1 Provide a baseflow of 500-540 ML/d from July to June for fish and macroinvertebrate habitat

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

2 Provide a spring fresh (>5,600 ML for 14 days) between September and October for lower bank vegetation establishment and maintenance

Partially Yes Yes Yes Yes

3 Provide an autumn fresh (>5,600 ML for 2 days) between February and April for lower bank vegetation establishment and maintenance

Partially Yes Yes Yes Yes

4 Bank water (carryover) for baseflow of 500-540 ML/d in July to September (17/18) for fish and macroinvertebrate habitat

Yes Yes Not needed

Not needed

5-7 Provide a higher baseflow of 830-940 ML/d from July to June for increased macroinvertebrate habitat

Yes Yes Yes

8 Golden Perch Spawning - Provide a fresh (up to 15,000 ML/d for 2 days) in November/December to stimulate Golden Perch spawning

Yes Yes Yes

9 Provide higher flow for native fish migration Yes Yes

10 Provide slower recession to unregulated flows, or add to pulses following natural cues/unregulated flows

Yes Yes Yes

11 A fresh in winter/ 2017 up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 6,600 ML to provide for vegetation and macroinvertebrate habitat

Partially

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The volumes of environmental water assumed to be used in 2016-17 under each scenario are summarised in the following table. The table assumes all environmental entitlements are available for use in the Goulburn River. The table also shows how much additional water could be used in each scenario if available.

Reaches 4 and 5 Scenario 1

Extreme dry 99% POE

Scenario 2 Dry

90% POE

Scenario 3 Below

average 70% POE

Scenario 4 Average 50% POE

Scenario 5 Wet

10% POE

Planned environmental water use

135 237 378 375 378

Additional water that could be used if available

400 400 193 120 -

Consultation with key stakeholders was undertaken as part of the development of this proposal. Stakeholders include (but not limited to) formal community advisory groups comprising landholder representatives, recreational users, local environment groups, traditional owners, and agency partners. Communication of this plan during its implementation has three key audiences. Namely, agencies involved in delivering the proposed flows, people or agencies potentially affected or interested in environmental water and the broader community. Communication and engagement with these three audiences during next years operations are outlined in Section 10 of this plan . In summary, the Goulburn Broken CMA is seeking access to, or be involved in the timing of releases of all water available under environmental entitlements in the Goulburn system (Commonwealth, The Living Murray and Victorian, Inter-Valley Transfers).

Although the proposal specifies water volumes required to achieve environmental objectives under a range of climatic scenarios, the climate may not follow one scenario throughout the year. Therefore, as the season unfolds the design of specific flow regimes to optimise outcomes will be necessary, requiring flexible and adaptive water deployment, and reviewing estimated water volumes required for events.

This proposal does not take into account competing needs for environmental water use from other river/creek systems or downstream along the Murray River. As all of the flows proposed are well within the river channel, there is very low risk of adverse outcomes from releasing environmental water. Water delivery through the lower Goulburn River to meet downstream consumptive and environmental targets is possible, but raises risks which need to be managed.

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Table of Contents

Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 3

Tables ...................................................................................................................................................... 7

Figures ..................................................................................................................................................... 7

Glossary and acronyms ........................................................................................................................... 8

1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 10

1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 10

1.2 Priority reaches and measuring points ................................................................................. 10

1.3 Water sources ....................................................................................................................... 10

2. Engagement .............................................................................................................................. 13

3. Flow objectives and recommendations .................................................................................... 14

4. Seasonal Review ........................................................................................................................ 19

4.1 Flow history ........................................................................................................................... 19

4.2 Flow components delivered .................................................................................................. 22

4.3 Current ecological conditions ............................................................................................... 25

4.4 Key observations and learnings from 2015-16 ..................................................................... 30

5. Priority watering actions ........................................................................................................... 32

6. Scenario planning ...................................................................................................................... 36

7. Implementation arrangements and delivery constraints ......................................................... 43

7.1 Delivery constraints .............................................................................................................. 43

7.2 Notice and time required ...................................................................................................... 43

7.3 Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 43

8. Risk management ...................................................................................................................... 44

8.1 Environmental water delivery ............................................................................................... 44

8.2 Other water delivery ............................................................................................................. 46

9. Monitoring and reporting ......................................................................................................... 47

9.1 Current monitoring programs ............................................................................................... 47

9.2 Knowledge gaps and limitations ........................................................................................... 48

10. Communications ....................................................................................................................... 49

11. Approval .................................................................................................................................... 51

12. References ................................................................................................................................ 52

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Tables Table 1: Bulk entitlements and environmental water available for use in the Goulburn River ........... 11

Table 2: Engagement undertaken in development of the Seasonal watering proposal ...................... 13

Table 3: Environmental objectives and flow recommendations for the Goulburn River ..................... 16

Table 4: Priority flow component achievement in 2015-16 ................................................................. 22

Table 5: Historical achievement of flow components in the lower Goulburn River ............................. 23

Table 6: Long term intervention monitoring results from 2014-15 (from Webb et al, 2015) .............. 30

Table 7: Summary of priority environmental flow components 2016-17 ............................................ 35

Table 8: Scenario descriptions for the Goulburn River ......................................................................... 39

Table 9: Summary of environmental water used to support this proposal (GL) .................................. 42

Table 10: Risk assessment of the proposed Goulburn River water delivery ........................................ 45

Table 11: Monitoring sites on the Goulburn River used in environmental flow management ............ 47

Table 12: Seasonal watering proposal communication approach ........................................................ 50

Figures

Figure 1: Goulburn River basin.............................................................................................................. 12

Figure 2: Goulburn River flows at McCoys Bridge; July 1996 to February 2016 ................................... 19

Figure 3: Goulburn River flows at Seymour; July 1996 to February 2016 ............................................ 20

Figure 4: Goulburn River flows at Seymour; July 2013 to February 2016 ............................................ 20

Figure 5: Goulburn River flows at Murchison; July 2013 to February 2016 ......................................... 21

Figure 6: Goulburn River flows at McCoys Bridge; July 2013 to February 2016 ................................... 21

Figure 7: Goulburn River flows and releases at McCoys Bridge; July 2013 to February 2016 ............. 22

Figure 8: Zonation of new vegetation on the lower banks of the Goulburn River at Yambuna Bridge 27

Figure 9: Newly established vegetation on the lower banks at McCoys Bridge ................................... 27

Figure 10: Newly established vegetation on the lower banks at McCoys Bridge ................................. 28

Figure 11: Newly established vegetation on the lower banks at Medland Road, Bunbartha .............. 28

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Glossary and acronyms Bankfull - carrying capacity of the stream before spilling out onto adjacent land

Baseflow – low flows sufficient to maintain fish passage, water quality, and pool and riffle habitats

Channel - that part of a river where water flows at some time and includes the bed and banks, taken to mean the whole of the depression in which the water flows before it rises sufficiently to spill over onto adjacent lands as flood water

Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder (CEWH) – (part of the Department of Environment) holds and manages the water entitlements purchased through the Restoring the Balance water recovery program

CMA – Catchment Management Authority

Environmental flow regime – the timing, frequency, duration and magnitude of flows for the environment

Environmental flow study – a scientific study of the flow requirements of a particular basin’s river and wetland systems used to inform decisions on the management and allocation of water resources

Environmental water entitlement – an entitlement to water to achieve environmental objectives in waterways (could be an environmental entitlement, environmental bulk entitlement, water share, Section 51 licence or supply agreement)

Flow component – components of a river system’s flow regime that can be described by timing, seasonality, frequency and duration (for example, cease to flow and overbank flows)

Flow regime - pattern of seasonal flow variations in any one year, usually consisting of periods of low flow during summer-autumn then high flows during winter-spring

Freshes - flows that produce a substantial rise in river height for a short period, but do not overtop the river bank. Freshes help maintain water quality and serve as life cycle cues for fish

GBCMA - Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority

Geomorphology - the physical interaction of flowing water and the natural channels of rivers including erosion and sedimentation

Gigalitre (GL) – one billion (1,000,000,000) litres or 1,000 megalitres

GMW - Goulburn-Murray Rural Water Corporation, trading as Goulburn-Murray Water

High flows - high flow within channel capacity. High flows allow full connection between all habitats in the river, which is important to fish passage during migration

High reliability entitlement – legally recognised, secure entitlement to a defined share of water, as governed by the reserve policy (full allocations are expected in most years)

Instream - refers to that area of a waterway below the surface of the water

Inter-Valley Transfers (IVT) – bulk water transfers from the Goulburn supply system to supply water users in the Murray system

Low reliability entitlement – a legally recognised, secure entitlement to a defined share of water, as governed by the reserve policy (full allocations are expected only in some years)

Macroinvertebrates – aquatic invertebrates whose body length usually exceeds 1 mm (included insects, crustacean, aquatic worms and aquatic snails)

Macrophytes – an aquatic plant that grows in or near water and is either emergent, submergent, or floating

Megalitre (ML) – one million (1,000,000) litres

Overbank flow – flows that overtop the banks and spill onto the floodplain

Passing flow – water released out of storages to operate river and distribution systems (to deliver water to end users), provide for riparian rights and maintain environmental values and other community benefits

Planktonic algae – floating microscopic plants that are an important food source for aquatic fauna

Pool - a significantly deeper area in the bed of a river

Reach - a length of stream that is reasonably uniform with respect to geomorphology, flow and ecology

Riffle – a section of the stream with fast and turbulent flow over a pebble bed with protruding rocks (characterised by a broken water surface)

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Riparian vegetation - vegetation growing on the river bank or along the very top of the bank and is effected by river flow. It is the vegetation which has the most direct effect on instream biota.

Seasonal allocation – the volume of water allocated to a water share in a given season, expressed as a percentage of total entitlement volume

The Living Murray (TLM) – an intergovernmental program, which holds an average of 500,000 ML of environmental water per year across the Murray-Darling Basin, for use at six icon sites along the River Murray

Unregulated entitlement – an entitlement to water declared during periods of unregulated flow in a river system, that is, flows that are unable to be captured in storages

Victorian Environmental Flow Monitoring and Assessment Program (VEFMAP) – assesses the effectiveness of environmental flows in delivering ecological outcomes

Victorian Environmental Water Holder (VEWH) – an independent statutory body responsible for holding and managing Victorian environmental water entitlements and allocations (Victorian Water Holdings)

Water entitlement – the right to a volume of water that can (usually) be stored in reservoirs and taken and used under specific conditions

Water Holdings – environmental water entitlements held by the Victorian Environmental Water Holder

Waterway manager – agency responsible for the environmental management of waterways (includes catchment management authorities and Melbourne Water)

Waterways – can include rivers, wetlands, creeks and floodplains

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1. Introduction

1.1 Introduction This seasonal watering proposal outlines the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority’s proposed priorities for the use of environmental water in the Goulburn River in 2016-17, as required under section 192A of the Water Act 1989.

The purpose of this Goulburn River Seasonal Watering Proposal is to:

identify the environmental water requirements of the Goulburn River in 2016-17 under a range of climate scenarios; and

inform the development of environmental water priorities in the VEWH’s seasonal watering plan.

The proposal is informed by scientific studies and reports that identify the flow regimes required to meet the ecological objectives of the Goulburn River.

1.2 Priority reaches and measuring points There have been a number of environmental flow studies of the Goulburn River. Each study divides the river into reaches to facilitate the development of flow recommendations and monitoring and compliance points. Reaches used in this SWP are:

1. Lake Eildon to Yea River (85 km);

2. Yea River to Sunday Creek (Seymour) (45 km);

3. Sunday Creek (Seymour) to Goulburn Weir (65 km);

4. Goulburn Weir to Loch Gary (110 km); and

5. Loch Gary to the Murray River (125 km)

These reaches are detailed in Cottingham et al (2007) and Cottingham et al (2014a) and are shown in Figure 1. In summer and autumn there are limited opportunities to manage water for environmental purposes in reaches one, two and three due to high flows to meet downstream irrigation and consumptive demands. During winter and spring, environmental flows delivered to reaches four and five can also benefit reaches one, two and three.

The key measurement points for environmental flows are at Eildon/Alexandra for reach one, Trawool for reach two, Seymour for reach three, Murchison and Shepparton for reach four and McCoys Bridge for reach five.

1.3 Water sources Water available for use in the Goulburn River is listed in Table 1 and includes:

minimum passing flows and a water quality allowance established in the Bulk Entitlement (Eildon – Goulburn Weir) Conversion Order 1995 and subsequent amendments;

environmental entitlements held by the VEWH, the CEWH and the MDBA; and

unregulated flows (not listed).

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Table 1: Bulk entitlements and environmental water available for use in the Goulburn River

ENVIRONMENTAL WATER

RESPONSIBLE AGENCY

DESCRIPTION CONDITIONS

Bulk Entitlement (Eildon – Goulburn Weir) Conversion Order 1995

Minimum flow GMW Minimum flow of 120 ML/d at Eildon Pondage Weir.

1

Minimum flow GMW Minimum average weekly flow of 250 ML/d at the Goulburn Weir.

The daily rate is to be no less than 200 ML/d.1

Minimum flow GMW

Minimum average monthly flow of 350 ML/d from November to June (inclusive) at McCoys Bridge gauging station.

The daily rate is to be no less than 300 ML/d.1

Minimum flow GMW

Minimum average monthly flow of 400 ML/d from July to October (inclusive) at McCoys Bridge gauging station.

The daily rate is to be no less than 350 ML/d.1

Goulburn Water Quality Allowance

GMW 30 GL per year. Maintenance of water quality.

Additional Passing Flow below Eildon Pondage Weir

GMW Minimum passing flows at Eildon Pondage Weir increased to 250 ML/d.

Inflows to Lake Eildon for previous 24 months must reach a specified volume.1

Additional Passing Flow below Eildon Pondage Weir

VEWH Up to 80 GL in November to provide up to 16,000 ML/d peak flow for one day.

Inflows to Lake Eildon from previous 12 and 24 months must reach specified volumes and VEWH confirms the need for a release.1

Environmental Water Entitlements

Goulburn Environmental Water Savings Supply Deed

VEWH

One third of water savings created in the Goulburn System as a result of modernisation works completed as part of Stage 1 of the Northern Victorian Irrigation Renewal Project.

30GL is assumed to be available for 2016-17

Volume based on works implemented and water losses saved in previous year’s climate.

Environmental Entitlement (Goulburn-System – Living Murray) 2007

MDBA

39,625 ML high reliability entitlement

156,980 ML low reliability entitlement.

Water allocated to this entitlement must be used for the Living Murray ‘icon sites’. However, this water can provide environmental benefits in the Goulburn River on route to the Murray River.

Commonwealth Environmental Water Holdings

CEWH

275,979 ML Goulburn high reliability water share

29,435 ML Goulburn low reliability water share

(as at 31 December 2015)

Water use is subject to agreement with the CEWH.

1 Minimum flows in the Goulburn Bulk Entitlement can be reduced under drought conditions and banked for later use.

Water can be transferred into the Goulburn system from environmental entitlements held in the Murray River or other water supply systems. Inter-Valley Transfers can also provide flows in summer and can be used to meet desirable minimum flows. This reduces the need to deploy water from environmental entitlements.

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Figure 1: Goulburn River basin

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2. Engagement In developing this proposal, consultation with key stakeholders has occurred as summarised in Table 2. Discussions have been held with GMW regarding the seasonal outlook and deliverability of the proposal. Consultation with Parks Victoria and Yorta Yorta has occurred in regard to informing and gaining feedback from these organisations. The GBCMA has also had formal discussions with community members including recreational users, environment groups and irrigators through the Goulburn Environmental Water Advisory Group (GEWAG). This group was formed to gather community feedback on the delivery of environmental flows and gain insights of river conditions from those who lived along the river. Table 2: Engagement undertaken in development of the seasonal watering proposal

Who

Engaged on the 2016-17

seasonal watering proposal

Engagement methods

Engaged longer term strategies that have informed the 2016-17 seasonal watering proposal

Environmental Water

Management Plans

Engagement Methods

Regional Waterway

strategy

Engagement methods

Program Partners

Goulburn Murray Water VEWH CEWO Parks Victoria

Formal advisory groups Direct engagement

Goulburn Murray Water Parks Victoria DELWP

Formal advisory groups Direct engagement

Goulburn Murray Water Parks Victoria DELWP

Formal advisory groups Direct engagement

Recreational Users

Trellys Fishing and Hunting Landholders Farmers Diverters

Formal advisory group (Goulburn Environmental Water Advisory Group)

Trellys Fishing and Hunting

Formal advisory groups

Community reference group VR Fish Goulburn Valley Association of Angling Clubs Australian Trout Foundation Trellys Tackle World Native Fish Australia Future Fish Foundation

Formal advisory groups Direct engagement

Environment Groups

GVEG

Formal advisory groups

Goulburn Murray Landcare Network GVEG

Formal advisory groups

N/A N/A

Traditional Owners

Yorta Yorta Formal advisory groups Direct engagement

Yorta Yorta Formal advisory groups

Yorta Yorta Taungurung Clans

Direct engagement

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3. Flow objectives and recommendations The first environmental flows study for the Goulburn River, from Lake Eildon to the Murray confluence, was completed in 2003 (Cottingham et al 2003) and was one of the earliest flows studies in Victoria. A second study was completed in 2007 specifically to assess the impact and management of high summer flows resulting from Inter-Valley Transfers in the lower Goulburn River (Cottingham et al 2007). The method used in the 2007 study altered significantly from that used in the 2003 study. The changes included:

Specifying the flow required for each objective instead of identifying a single flow to meet several environmental objectives.

Providing for inter annual flow variability (dry, medium and wet years).

Specifying two levels of environmental flow recommendations (the recommended environmental flow to achieve the environmental flow objective with a high degree of confidence (low risk) and a flow that represents a moderate risk to achieving the environmental flow objective. These two levels are provided in recognition of the inherent uncertainty in flow ecology linkages and the need to trade off environmental risks with consumptive water use (Cottingham et al 2007).

As such, the 2007 study provides a complex range of flow recommendations for each environmental objective for different times of year, in different years, and with different levels of risk to the environmental outcomes. Environmental objectives are established for planktonic algae, macrophytes, terrestrial bank vegetation, macroinvertebrates, native fish and geomorphology. The recommendations from the 2007 study have been adopted for the Goulburn River reach from Goulburn Weir to the Murray River (reaches four and five). A revision of flow recommendations for the mid Goulburn River i.e. Lake Eildon to Goulburn Weir (reaches one to three) was completed in 2014 by Cottingham et al (2014a). This study provides recommendations taking into consideration the use of the river to provide irrigation flows and consequent cold water temperatures. The Goulburn River Environmental Water Management plan was completed in 2015 by the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority (2015b) and provides an overview of the long term environmental water management objectives. The 2007 and 2014 studies both recommended a desirable maximum rate of rise and fall in river flows/levels to minimise bank slumping and flushing or stranding of biota. These guide the shaping of flow freshes and water management intervention actions. In 2007 to 2010, the drought conditions raised ecological questions not previously considered in flows studies. In response a panel of ecologists and hydrologists assessed the impact of low flows to the ecosystem and developed recommendations for water management to minimise the ecological risk in times of drought. These recommendations are included in a number of separate reports with recommendations specific to climatic conditions. One of the reports specifically looks at objectives for delivering fresh flows (Cottingham et al 2010). In February 2011, the Department of Sustainability and Environment updated the overbank flow recommendation from the Cottingham et al 2007 study (DSE, 2011). Table 3 outlines a selection of the environmental objectives and flow recommendation for all five reaches of the Goulburn River and references the original report they came from. In addition, environmental objectives met by the same flow recommendation (nested ecological objectives) are also listed. The selected environmental objectives and flow recommendations for reaches four and five are currently considered a priority, given these are the most flow stressed parts of the river. There are limited opportunities to manage water in reaches one to three for environmental purposes

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due to irrigation demands in spring, summer and autumn. Therefore, the priority reaches for environmental water management are reaches four and five in 2016-17. The feasibility of delivering the overbank flow recommendations, whilst avoiding damage to public and private assets is an issue requiring further investigation. Therefore overbank flow recommendations will only be provided by natural events. An option to supplement unregulated flows with environmental water using the ‘natural cues/translucent flows’ approach is one the CMA is investigating in conjunction with the water holders and delivery partners. Translucent flows have the advantage of delivering water at the same time as other natural ecosystem cues such as water pressure and chemistry which may encourage greater population response than water provided when antecedent conditions are not the same. Delivery options for these types of flows is currently limited to low flows and baseflows due to lack of accurate weekly rainfall/run off forecasting and a lack of streamflow gauging in the mid Goulburn. The Goulburn River also has significant social values associated with passive recreation, fishing and boating. These revolve around enjoying the natural environment and are enhanced by the improvements in river health achieved by the targeted environmental flow objectives above. In reach one (Lake Eildon to the Yea River), trout fishing produces substantial economic and social benefits. Cottingham et al (2014a) identified the following flow regimes beneficial to trout:

Baseflow (winter) greater than 500 ML/day;

Baseflow (September to February) less than 3,000 ML/day;

Baseflow (summer/autumn) greater than 4,000 ML/day, 1 in 3 to 4 years. Although we are not targeting the delivery of environmental water to specifically meet these flows, the first baseflow will be partially achieved by delivering downstream minimum flows. The second baseflow is unlikely to be met due to irrigation releases while the third recommendation is likely to be met in most years by irrigation releases.

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Table 3: Environmental objectives and flow recommendations for the Goulburn River

FLOW COMPONENT

ECOLOGICAL VALUE ECOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES NESTED ECOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES SEASON

FLOW (ML/DAY)

REPORT

Reach 1 Reach 2 Reach 3 Reach 4 Reach 5

Baseflow

Macroinvertebrates

Vegetation

Native fish

Wet and maintain riffles for macroinvertebrates and small bodies fish, maintain wetted perimeter and aquatic vegetation

scour fine sediment from gravel bed and riffle substrate

maintain existing beds of in channel vegetation

All Minimum of 400 or natural

Minimum of 500 or natural

Minimum of

800 or natural NA NA 2014

Baseflow Native fish Provide suitable in channel habitat for all life stages.

Provide slow shallow habitat required for larvae/juvenile recruitment and adult habitat for small bodied fish

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

NA NA NA 400 540 2007

Provide deep water habitat for large bodied fish

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

NA NA NA 500 320 2007

Baseflow Macroinvertebrates Provide food and habitat for macroinvertebrates including suitable water quality

Entrainment of litter packs available as food/habitat source for macroinvertebrates

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

NA NA NA 540 770 2007

Baseflow Macroinvertebrates Provide habitat and food source for macroinvertebrates by submerging snag habitat within the euphotic zone

Provide conditions suitable for aquatic vegetation, which provides habitat for macroinvertebrates

Provide slackwater habitat favourable for planktonic production (food source) and habitat for macroinvertebrates

Entrain litter packs available as food/habitat source for macroinvertebrates

Maintain water quality suitable for macroinvertebrates

Summer

Autumn

Winter

Spring

NA NA NA 830 940 2007

Provision of conditions suitable for the establishment of aquatic vegetation (for macroinvertebrate habitat)

Provision of slackwater habitat favourable for planktonic production (food for macroinvertebrates) and slackwater habitat

Summer

(30 – 40 days) NA NA NA 1,500 NA 2007

Baseflow/fresh Geomorphology Maintain pool depth Maintenance of water quality suitable

for macroinvertebrates

Summer

< 90 days NA NA NA

856,1186,1660, 2223,3142,4490, 6590

1096,1509,1993, 2711,3800,5240, 6060

2007

Fresh In channel habitat

Macroinvertebrate

Scour fine sediments from riffle surfaces to maintain invertebrate habitat

Maintain habitat for macrophytes

Macroinvertebrate provides food source for fish

Mobilise sediments

Winter

Spring

900

1 day 2014

Fresh Macroinvertebrates

Native fish

Sloughing filamentous algae and refreshing biofilms

Increase flow variability to more closely mimic natural hydrological regime

Summer

Autumn

2,500

5-7 days

2,500-3,500

5-7 days

2,500-3,500

5-7 days 2014

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FLOW COMPONENT

ECOLOGICAL VALUE ECOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES NESTED ECOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES SEASON

FLOW (ML/DAY)

REPORT

Reach 1 Reach 2 Reach 3 Reach 4 Reach 5

Maintain areas of riffle habitat

Winter

Spring

2 per year 2 per year 2 per year

Fresh Native fish Provide flows to promote large bodied endangered species colonisation

Promote Macquarie perch spawning Spring 0.5m increase in stage height over one week

Fresh Native fish

Initiate spawning, pre-spawning migrations and recruitment of native fish (preferably late spring early summer for native fish)

Maintain aquatic macrophytes, macroinvertebrate and fish habitat by mobilising fine sediments, submerging snags and replenishing slackwater habitat

Spring

Summer NA NA NA

5,600

14 days (winter/ spring)

2-4 days (summer/ autumn)

1-4 events

5,600

14 days (winter/ spring)

2-4 days (summer/ autumn)

1-4 events

2010

Fresh Riparian vegetation Remove terrestrial vegetation and re-establish amphibious vegetation

Winter

Spring

Summer/Autumn

6,600 ML/day

14 days (winter/spring)

2-4 days summer/autumn

6,600 ML/day

14 days (winter/spring)

2-4 days summer/autumn

2010

Bankfull Geomorphology Maintain channel form and key habitats (including in channel benches)

Winter

Spring

7,000-9,000

2 days 2014

Bankfull

Geomorphology / habitat diversity

Native Fish

Riparian vegetation

Macroinvertebrates

Maintain bed diversity

Provide flows to increase native fish recruitment and colonisation

Provide periodic regeneration opportunities for native riparian species

Retain natural seasonality for macroinvertebrate life stages

Overturn bed substrate

Maintain channel form and key habitats

Maintain riffle habitat for macroinvertebrates

Maintain or increase connection to warmer water

Maintain channel connectivity to tributaries

Winter

Spring

11,000

1-4 days

11,000

1-4 days

12,000 – 13,000

2 days 2014

Bankfull

Geomorphology

Native fish

Native vegetation

Maintain bed diversity

Provide periodic opportunities for regeneration of riparian and floodplain species and improve in channel carbon availability

Retain natural seasonality to ensure synchronicity of life cycle of macroinvertebrates

overturn of bed substrate

scour sediments from base of pools to maintain quantity and quality of habitat

Maintain channel and inlet for connectivity to main channel with floodplain and wetlands

Promote colonisation by large bodied endangered species

provision of lateral connectivity for habitat and production

Spring and Autumn 14,000

1-4 days 2014

Overbank

Geomorphology

Native fish

Riparian vegetation

Macroinvertebrates

Maintain channel form

Maintain connectivity to floodplain and wetlands

Provide floodplain connection for exchange of organic matter

Provide periodic regeneration opportunities for native floodplain wetland plants

Maintain diversity among low lying wetlands

Promote colonisation by large bodied endangered species

Overturn of bed material and maintain benches

Improve in channel carbon availability

Provide lateral connectivity as habitat and recruitment areas for native fish

Winter

Spring

15,000 - 20,000

1-4 days

15,000 – 20,000

1-4 days

15,000 - 20,000

1-4 days 2014

Overbank Floodplain and wetland vegetation

Increase the extent and diversity of flood dependent vegetation communities

Provide habitat for wetland specialist fish

Exchange of food and organic material between the floodplain and channel

Increase breeding and feeding opportunities for native fish, waterbirds and amphibians

Winter

Spring

25,000

5+ days

2-3 events in a year

7-10 event years in10

NA 2011

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FLOW COMPONENT

ECOLOGICAL VALUE ECOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES NESTED ECOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES SEASON

FLOW (ML/DAY)

REPORT

Reach 1 Reach 2 Reach 3 Reach 4 Reach 5

Overbank Floodplain and wetland vegetation higher in the landscape

Increase the extent and diversity of flood dependent vegetation communities

Provide habitat for wetland specialist fish

Exchange of food and organic material between the floodplain and channel

Increase breeding and feeding opportunities for native fish, waterbirds and amphibians

Winter

Spring

40,000

4+ day

1-2 events in a year

4-6 event years in 10

NA 2011

Rate of flow rise Native fish and macroinvertebrates

Reduce displacement of macroinvertebrates and small/juvenile fish

All year

Max rate 2.0 (i.e. 2 times previous days flow) for flows from 1,000-5,000 ML/d. 2.7 times previous days flow for flows above 5,000 ML/d

NA NA

Max rate of 0.38/0.38/1.20/0.80 metres river height in summer/autumn/ winter/spring

NA 2014

2007

Rate of flow fall Geomorphology, native fish and macroinvertebrates

Reduce bank slumping/erosion and stranding of macroinvertebrates and small/juvenile fish

All year Max rate 0.8 of previous days flow

NA NA

Max rate of 0.15/0.15/0.78/0.72 metres river height in summer/autumn/ winter/spring

NA 2014

2007

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4. Seasonal Review

4.1 Flow history Over the last twenty years, conditions in the Goulburn catchment have been quite dry. After two wet years between 1995 and 1997, there were thirteen drier than average years (including eight very dry years). In 2010-11 the long drought broke with floods and a very wet year. Since then, the climate has been getting progressively drier with 2011-12 and 2012-13 drier than average, 2013-14 and 2014-15 very dry, and 2015-16 one of the driest on record in the Goulburn catchment. Figure 2 shows flows at McCoys Bridge over the last twenty years. The only large overbank flows occurred in 1996-97 and 2010-11. Smaller overbank flows occurred in winter 2000, and autumn and winter 2012.

Figure 2: Goulburn River flows at McCoys Bridge; July 1996 to February 2016

Figure 3 shows flows at Seymour over the last twenty years. Flows up to 10,000 ML/day occur during summer in most years, although flows were much lower in the very dry years. Flood flows are limited to 1996, 2010 and 2012, with some smaller winter/spring flows in other years.

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Figure 3: Goulburn River flows at Seymour; July 1996 to February 2016

2013-14 and 2014-15 were very dry years, with some catchment runoff in winter followed by a very dry spring and low inflows. Winter and spring of 2016-17 was extremely dry with catchment run off the second lowest on record (behind 2006-07). Figure 4, Figure 5, and Figure 6 show flows at Seymour, Murchison and McCoys Bridge for this period. Flows were well within bank for all of that time. Flows at Seymour have been influenced by regulation of the river with generally lower flows over winter and higher flow over summer. Delivery of a winter fresh to the lower Goulburn provided a small fresh in winter 2015.

Figure 4: Goulburn River flows at Seymour; July 2013 to February 2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Flo

w (

ML/

day

)

Goulburn River @ Seymour

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Figure 5: Goulburn River flows at Murchison; July 2013 to February 2016

Figure 6: Goulburn River flows at McCoys Bridge; July 2013 to February 2016

In 2013-14 and 2014-15, environmental flows were used downstream of Goulburn Weir to provide two spring freshes, an autumn fresh, and baseflows throughout the year. A winter fresh was planned in 2013 and again in 2014, but not provided until 2015. In 2015-16 a single spring fresh was provided by environmental flows along with baseflows and an autumn fresh. Additional environmental water was also passed down the Goulburn River to meet environmental needs in the Murray River or other downstream locations. Significant volumes of Inter-Valley Transfers were also released during spring, summer and early autumn. These releases were shaped to help meet environmental flow objectives and manage any potential detrimental effects.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Flo

w (

ML/

day

)Goulburn River @ Murchison

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Flo

w (

ML/

day

)

Goulburn River @ McCoys Bridge

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Figure 7 shows river flows at McCoys Bridge in 2013-14 and 2014-15 and part of 2015-16 Flow is split into other passing flow (catchment runoff and passing flows) along with released environmental and Inter-Valley Transfer flows. Apart from the winter catchment runoff, all flow variability has come from released water. No significant natural catchment run off in winter of 2015 means that flow variability provided by releases has been even more important since spring 2014.

Figure 7: Goulburn River flows and releases at McCoys Bridge; July 2013 to February 2016

4.2 Flow components delivered The achievement (or otherwise) of the delivery of environmental flow components in 2015-16 is provided in Table 4, along with how the flow was provided.

Table 4: Priority flow component achievement in 2015-16

PRIORITY WATERING ACTION COMMENT

Baseflow – winter/spring 2015 Provided by TLM and CEWH environmental water, and Inter-Valley Transfers

Fresh – spring (long duration fresh)

Provided in October by CEWH and TLM environmental releases.

Note: did not reach designed flow rate peak due to competing demands for consumptive water at the time

Baseflow - summer Provided by Inter-Valley Transfers

Baseflow – autumn/winter Expected to be provided by Inter-Valley Transfers and environmental releases from CEWH and VEWH (or unregulated catchment runoff) from March to June

Baseflow – winter/spring 2016 To be provided through carryover of CEWH water or unregulated flows

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1/0

7/2

013

1/0

8/2

013

1/0

9/2

013

1/1

0/2

013

1/1

1/2

013

1/1

2/2

013

1/0

1/2

014

1/0

2/2

014

1/0

3/2

014

1/0

4/2

014

1/0

5/2

014

1/0

6/2

014

1/0

7/2

014

1/0

8/2

014

1/0

9/2

014

1/1

0/2

014

1/1

1/2

014

1/1

2/2

014

1/0

1/2

015

1/0

2/2

015

1/0

3/2

015

1/0

4/2

015

1/0

5/2

015

1/0

6/2

015

1/0

7/2

015

1/0

8/2

015

1/0

9/2

015

1/1

0/2

015

1/1

1/2

015

1/1

2/2

015

1/0

1/2

016

1/0

2/2

016

Flo

w M

L/d

ay

Goulburn River at McCoys Bridge

Other Passing Flows

Inter-valley transfers

Environmental Flow

Total River Flow

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PRIORITY WATERING ACTION COMMENT

Fresh –summer/autumn Provided in March using VEWH, CEWH environmental water and Inter-Valley Transfers

Fresh – spring (short duration fresh) Not provided in 2015-16 due to low allocations in spring with higher priorities requiring water in autumn and successful Golden perch spawning in 2014 and

Higher baseflow – winter/spring 2015 Not delivered in 2015

Higher baseflow – summer Partially provided using Inter-Valley Transfers

Fresh – winter 2015 Provided by CEWH and VEWH environmental water

Recession slowing Not delivered to date

Higher baseflow – autumn/winter 2016 Expected to be provided by Inter-Valley Transfers and environmental releases (or unregulated catchment runoff) from March to June

Fresh – winter 2016 Not planned to be provided by environmental releases (or expected from unregulated catchment runoff) in June/July 2016

Baseflow/freshes – all year Low baseflows provided in winter spring and summer and only slight variations in flow due to minor rainfall events that did not use environmental water

The key flow components that have occurred in the lower Goulburn River since 2004-05 at Murchison, Shepparton and McCoys Bridge as a result of environmental water delivery and unregulated and regulated flows are summarised below in Table 5. In addition, the past occurrence of the new mid Goulburn flow components are summarised for Reach 3, although they have not been targeted to date. Table 5: Historical achievement of flow components in the lower Goulburn River

Flow component Volume (ML/day)

2004- 2005

2005- 2006

2006- 2007

2007- 2008

2008- 2009

2009- 2010

2010- 2011

2011 - 2012

2012- 2013

2013 - 2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

Seymour

Baseflow (winter/spring)

800 (Or Natural)

Baseflow (summer)

800 (Or Natural)

Baseflow (autumn/winter)

800 (Or Nat)

Fresh (all year) 2,500-3,000 5-7 days x2

Bankfull (winter-spring)

12,000-13,000 2 days

U U U O/U

Overbank (winter-spring)

15,000-20,000 1-4 days

U U U O/U

Murchison

Baseflow (winter/spring)

500 U U/E U/E U/E/O

E,U,O

E,U,O

Baseflow (summer)

1,500 30-40 days

X X O U E/O/U

E/O E/O O

Baseflow (autumn/winter)

500 U U E E/U E,U,O

Higher baseflow (winter/spring)

830 U U/E U/E E,U,O

U/E

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Higher baseflow (summer)

830 X U E/O/U

E/O E/O O

Higher baseflow (autumn/winter)

830 U U E E/U E/U

Long fresh (spring)

5,600 14 days

U E E E E,O E,O

Short fresh (spring)

5,600 2 days

U E (1) E,O

Fresh (summer/autumn)

6,600 2-4 days

X U U E E

Fresh (winter) 6,600 14 days

U U U U U/E

Recession flow E

Shepparton

Low overbank (winter/spring)

25,000 5+ days 2-3 per

year

U

High overbank (winter/spring)

25,000 5+ days

U

McCoys Bridge

Baseflow (winter/spring)

320 X X U U/E U/E E/U/O

E,U,O

E,U,O

Baseflow (summer)

320 X X X O U E/O/U

E/O E/O O O

Baseflow (autumn/winter)

320 X U U E E/U O

Higher baseflow (winter/spring)

940 X U U/E U/E U/E/O

E,U,O

E,U,O

Higher baseflow (summer)

940 X U E/O/U

E/O E/O O

Higher baseflow (autumn/winter)

940 U U E/O E/O

Long fresh (spring)

5,600 14 days

U E E E E,O E,O

Short fresh (spring)

5,600 2 days

U E E,O

Fresh (summer/autumn)

6,600 2-4 days

X X U U E E

Fresh (winter) 6,600 14 days

U U U U U/E

No significant part of the flow component achieved (target flow met for less than 50% of the required duration)

Flows consistently too high

Flow component partially achieved (target flow met for more than 50% of the required duration)

Flow component completely achieved (target flow met for the required duration)

E Managed environmental water release

O Consumptive water on route/other managed flow

U Unregulated flows

X Unknown

(1) First year flow component listed as priority action

In summary, no flow components were achieved during the drought years. Most flow components were met by unregulated flows in 2010-11. Since 2010-11, most flow components have been met increasingly with managed environmental and consumptive releases instead of unregulated flows, as the years have become progressively drier.

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4.3 Current ecological conditions

3.3.1 Mid Goulburn River

The 2014 Mid Goulburn River flows study (Cottingham et al 2014b) provides a good description of current ecological conditions of the river from Lake Eildon to Goulburn Weir. River surveys conducted as part of the 2014 flows study compared cross sections with those taken 12 years earlier and showed little evidence of large scale channel change over this time. Sediment supply to reach one (Lake Eildon to Yea River) is very restricted due to the presence of Lake Eildon, and consequently the mid Goulburn River relies on tributaries downstream of Lake Eildon for sediment input. The floodplain width ranges from 500 metres to two kilometres and is made up of wetlands and paleo channels that are hydrologically connected to the channel at various flows. There are hundreds of floodplain wetlands, primarily in reaches one and two. The wetlands are small in size, many being five hectares or less, and often caused by artificially constructed block banks and culverts limiting their size. Limited assessment of their condition indicates moderate to good, however they suffer from altered water regimes due to irrigation and water supply in the wrong time of year plus lack of overbank flows. The water quality in the mid Goulburn River was deemed to be generally good, with the main issue being cold water temperatures from Lake Eildon releases (Cottingham at al 2014b). In channel vegetation in reach one of the mid Goulburn River is in good condition with many macrophytes growing on the lower banks and the gravel bed. Some sites are characterised by high species richness, however there is considerable variability from site to site. These in channel macrophytes provide habitat for macroinvertebrates and small fish and act as seed source/fragments for connected wetlands and downstream environments. It is interesting to note that this abundance is in contrast to observations made in 2003 where macrophyte presence was scarcer. It is believed the lower, shallower flows that have occurred in the last ten years have allowed macrophytes to establish (Cottingham et al 2014b). Downstream of reach one, there are smaller, less abundant and less diverse patches of macrophytes. Limitation of light availability is thought to be the reason for the lack of macrophytes in reaches two and three. The macroinvertebrate population in the mid Goulburn River is considered poor with a much lower abundance of shrimp, yabbies, dragonflies and damselflies than in the lower Goulburn River. The poor condition is thought to be from low water temperature, altered flow regime and hydraulic habitat, altered carbon availability and removal of woody debris that supports biofilms, increased armouring and infilling of riffle and gravel habitats and the lack of emergent macrophytes in reaches two and three (Cottingham et al, 2014b). Further investigation into the macroinvertebrate populations and composition in this section of the river is being conducted and results will become available in the coming 12 months. A fish survey was conducted of the mid Goulburn River (primarily reaches two and three) in May 2014 and found large bodied natives fish of special interest include Murray cod, Macquarie perch, Golden perch and Freshwater catfish. The survey found the most abundant native fish was Australian smelt and the most abundant non native fish was carp (Cottingham et al, 2014a). There were low abundances of flood dependent and floodplain specialist species which may be a reflection of the survey method (electrofishing), and/or a result of the lack of connection to floodplains and their wetlands. The overall condition of native fish populations in reaches one and two was considered poor, and moderate in reach three. This is based on species diversity, abundance, observed versus expected, habitat quality, riparian zone and number of non native fish. The major threat to native fish in the mid Goulburn River is low water temperature and competition from introduced species and angling.

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3.3.2 Lower Goulburn River

A key objective for environmental water deliveries in 2015-16 has been to improve the cover of amphibious vegetation that had been lost during the extended drought and subsequent floods between 2000 and 2010. This year has seen a remarkable improvement in this type of vegetation. On much of the lower banks a range of aquatic and amphibious vegetation has established. Native species present include Alisma sp., Cyperus exaltatus, Alternanthera denticulata and Persicaria prostrata and are briefly described below. All of these species are flood tolerant plants; that is, plants that can withstand some inundation without dying and are most appropriate for shallow water or lower river bank environments. The plants are showing zonation up the river banks with those more tolerant of water establishing lower on the bank, or on the edge of the water, and those less tolerant of inundation establishing higher up the bank. This is shown in Figure 8.

Alisma spp: perennial aquatic herb up to 1.5m height with emergent leaves and blade lanceolate to broadly elliptic. Grows in damp soils or shallow water and can persist in drying mud above the water line. Plants in permanently damp areas are evergreen, those in drier areas die back to the thick, corm like rhizome. Flowers from November to March (Conn, 1994). Common in the lower Goulburn River in shallow water at the margins of the river.

Cyperus exaltatus: Stout tussock forming perennial that produces large numbers of very small seeds. Grows in shallow water and on banks of waterways and wetlands, and flowers from spring to summer (Wilson, 1994). Common on the Goulburn River at the waters edge at baseflow level.

Alternanthera denticulata: prostrate amphibious herb that can be annual or perennial with oblong or narrowly elliptic leaves. Axillary flowers usually in round to oval spikes. Widespread and common almost throughout lowland areas and often on the margins of wetlands and rivers. Flowers from October to January (Walsh, 1996). Common on the Goulburn River on the low bank. Persicaria prostrata: amphibious prostrate perennial, common on sandy or rocky banks of watercourses, and on heavy soils prone to inundation. Flowers from December to May (Walsh, 1996). Common on the Goulburn River on the mid and sometimes lower banks, often growing in small clumps. Appears to be the upper limit of any new vegetation establishment. Figure 9, Figure 10 and Figure 11 show some of the recently established lower bank vegetation at McCoys Bridge and Bunbartha.

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Figure 8: Zonation of new vegetation on the lower banks of the Goulburn River at Yambuna Bridge

Figure 9: Newly established vegetation on the lower banks at McCoys Bridge

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Figure 10: Newly established vegetation on the lower banks at McCoys Bridge

Figure 11: Newly established vegetation on the lower banks at Medland Road, Bunbartha

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Much of this newly established vegetation is appearing right at the margins of the water level and lower bank, with many sections of the river still having bare banks above this lower level of vegetation. It is unclear why there remains a layer of bare bank between the newly establishing aquatic and amphibious vegetation and the less flood tolerant terrestrial vegetation. It is hypothesised the lack of vegetation in these parts of the bank may be due to low seed banks and availability of propagules, or failure to germinate and establish. Although this recovery is still patchy along the lower Goulburn River, the vegetative cover has improved enormously in 2015-16. It is unclear why this year has seen such an improvement in lower bank vegetation cover, but it is thought to be either in response to the winter fresh, or the consistent low flows following the October fresh. The banks of the Goulburn River are naturally eroding, however notching became an issue in reaches of the lower river after the delivery of 2012-13 freshes. Notching during the 2013-14 freshes was significantly reduced from levels seen in 2012-13. Occasional lower bank erosion issues were reported in 2014-15, but their relationship to environmental releases is still to be clarified. Monitoring of erosion occurrences and rates is occurring on the banks of the Goulburn River between Toolamba and Yambuna as part of a five year monitoring program (see Section 9). The monitoring has been carried out for just over twelve months, and results are shown in Section 4.4. Golden perch are a key native fish objective in environmental flow delivery in the lower Goulburn River as they are one of the few native species thought to be flow dependent for spawning and migration. Substantial Golden perch spawning was detected for the first time in ten years in during the 2010–11 floods. Golden perch have since spawned in the lower Goulburn River in 2013 and 2014 in response to environmental releases. In 2013 Golden perch larvae were found in the lower reaches of the Goulburn River, near the confluence with the Murray River. In 2014 larvae were detected all the way from Murchison to the Murray River confluence; this was the first time since 2010 that larvae have been collected upstream of Yambuna. Given there has been two consecutive years of successful Golden perch breeding in the lower Goulburn River, the provision of a spring fresh to encourage spawning was a lower priority in 2015-16. Due to the low allocations early in the water year, it was determined there was not enough water available to deliver both the autumn fresh and spring fresh aimed at Golden perch spawning. Consequently there were no flows provided at the optimum time for spawning in November 2015. Larval monitoring was still undertaken in the lower river and results showed no Golden perch larvae collected in spring/summer 2015. Despite this very successful spawning, subsequent monitoring has failed to detect any recruitment or juveniles from 2010-11 and 2013 and 2014. In 2010 this was thought to be due to a major blackwater event that occurred in the lower reaches of the Goulburn River in December 2010. In 2013 it is thought the eggs/larvae were potentially exported to the Murray River given the spawning was detected so close to the confluence of the two rivers, and given the spawning fresh was followed by a second fresh which may have pushed eggs downstream. However, it is unclear why there is a lack of recruits and juveniles from 2014 and further investigation is required. Murray cod and a number of other native fish species are thought to breed annually in the lower Goulburn regardless of flow levels (Koster et al, 2012). The Victorian Environmental Flows and Monitoring Assessment Program (VEFMAP) annually surveys adult fish populations in the Goulburn River. The March/April 2015 survey results showed widespread and abundant populations of Australian smelt, Murray cod and carp. Golden perch and Murray rainbowfish were also widespread but less abundant. Of the six sites surveyed, native species dominated the species richness, but carp tended to dominate the biomass at most sites. Trout cod were also found to be widespread and moderately abundant in reach four; between Goulburn Weir and Loch Gary (Ecology Australia, 2015).

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4.4 Key observations and learnings from 2015-16 The re establishment of vegetation on the lower banks has improved substantially in the past twelve months. Further, an investigation of the lower bank and riparian vegetation was conducted by Jane Roberts in 2015. Using photo records and a site visit, the following observations were made:

Submerged macrophytes were present in some reaches

Groundwater inputs were significant at some sites and looked to be supporting some wetland vegetation such as Phragmites and Eleocharis

Zonation patterns of Alternathera (joyweed) growing below Persicaria on the lower to mid banks were establishing and widespread

Some sites showed high species diversity associated with depositional mud drapes areas on the mid to lower bank, while there seemed to be poor species diversity at the wet bottom of the bank (Roberts, 2016).

Roberts (2016) provided some suggestion that management of environmental flows for vegetation outcomes had to have a “dual strategy” i.e. flows for maintenance and flows for development of new individuals. It may not be able, or desirable, to deliver flows for germination and seedling establishment every year. In previous years there have been a number of reports from community members regarding bank erosion. In 2015-16 there have been no such reports to date. In 2014-15 the Commonwealth Environmental Water Office commenced a five year Long Term Intervention Monitoring Program (LTIM) in the Goulburn River. Table 6 summarises the results from the first year of monitoring; i.e. 2014-15 water year (Webb et al, 2015). Table 6: Long term intervention monitoring results from 2014-15 (from Webb et al, 2015)

Parameter Specifics Year 1 results

Bank condition Rates or erosion and deposition

The effect of environmental flows on bank condition is minor in comparison to other flows occurring in the river. Rates of bank erosion and deposition appear to be related to the duration of inundation, and also the process of wetting and drying. The observed changes in bank condition (i.e. erosion and deposition) can provide important environments for vegetation establishment.

Vegetation Abundance and diversity Areas of the river bank that were wetted during spring freshes had improved abundance of vegetation post flows compared to pre flow delivery. The cover of vegetation tended to be less on outside bends compared to inside bends or straight sections of the river.

Fish Spawning and movement of golden perch and silver perch

Large numbers of golden perch eggs and larvae were detected (spring 2014) in response to environmental flow releases. Silver perch spawning in response to flows was also detected. Golden perch downstream migration in response to environmental flows was also detected Population surveys of fish communities showed no strong relationship between golden perch spawning and recruitment.

Stream metabolism

Production and respiration There was a small boost in primary productivity with delivery of environmental flows, but overall only a small effect on overall metabolism

Macroinvertebrate Biomass and diversity Three different types of sampling methods are being used: 1. Replicated edge sweep sampling

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Parameter Specifics Year 1 results

2. Artificial substrates 3. Yellow sticky traps (for details on method see Webb et

al, 2015) The edge sweep samples showed an increase (biomass) following spring environmental flow releases. There were no conclusive results from the artificial substrate work. Macroinvertebrate emergence appeared to be stimulated by the spring fresh; this may indicate the flows improve survival, provide improved larval habitat and conditions or stimulate adult emergence.

Some knowledge gaps identified during the delivery and monitoring of environmental water in 2015-16 include:

1. Successful spawning of golden perch has not resulted in the presence of juveniles and young recruits to the population. It is unclear why this has happened and one option may be to provide flows to attract this age class to migrate into the river. This may provide a complete population structure in the Goulburn River. Alternatively, these species may use different parts of the southern connected basin for different life stages and this issue needs further investigation.

2. Given the current water delivery regime of the Goulburn River, and availability of environmental water, it may not be possible to get continuous vegetation from the waters edge to the top of bank. We may need to refine our vegetation objectives to acknowledge this, and potentially choose to maintain and grow plants on the lower bank or mid bank, rather than targeting the entire river bank.

3. The delivery of environmental water may not be able to meet all objectives in the one year. e.g. high flows after a spring fresh may drown newly establishing plants trying to grow, flower and produce seed before they get the opportunity to do this. Consequently, some years we may need to focus on fish spawning, and other years on vegetation until the bank vegetation develop a level of resilience to inundation.

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5. Priority watering actions The focus for 2016-17 is similar to that of the past three years; to encourage long term improvement in the cover and diversity of amphibious vegetation on the lower banks. Other high priority objectives in 2016-17 will be to continue to maintain and improve the distribution, abundance and diversity of native fish, riparian vegetation and macroinvertebrates, while simultaneously providing the appropriate physical habitat requirements to meet these objectives. This will be achieved by implementing baseflows and freshes, particularly in spring and autumn. The lower Goulburn River (downstream of Goulburn Weir) is the most flow stressed part of the river and therefore is higher priority than the mid Goulburn River (between Lake Eildon and Goulburn Weir). Additionally, the limited opportunities to manage water in reaches one to three for environmental purposes due to irrigation demands in spring, summer and autumn, result in the priority reaches for environmental water management in 2016-17 being reaches four and five. The 2007 environmental flows study for the lower Goulburn River provides for specified flows to be met for a proportion of time to allow for climate variability. Given the recent dry years, it is planned in 2016-17 to aim for the proportion of time appropriate for a median year, but with tolerance for some variability to wetter or drier conditions. For baseflows the priority is to provide for all fish objectives (fish habitat and passage) with flows of 500 ML/day and 540 ML/day at Murchison and McCoys Bridge respectively. This also provides for many macroinvertebrate objectives; encouraging establishment of aquatic and amphibious vegetation for habitat, submergence of snags for habitat and food, and encouraging planktonic production for food. The delivery of this baseflow throughout the entire year is the highest priority for 2016-17. This low baseflow will also provide the newly established bank vegetation with appropriate flows to extend their range. The volume of water required to deliver these baseflows for the entire year is 90 GL for 500 ML/day at Murchison and 63 GL for 540 ML/day at McCoys. Where water is limited, the 2016 spring period is most important and the next highest priority (two) is the delivery of a spring fresh. The aim of this fresh is twofold; to maintain existing vegetation by watering the banks and benches and providing soil moisture to sustain growth and increase vigour, flowering and seed development, and also to increase vegetation extent by distributing seed to river banks and encouraging germination. The principal aim is for the development of new plants, hence it would be ideal to deliver the flow in September or early October at the beginning of the growing season and allow at least six weeks until another fresh delivery (ideally 2 to 3 months if the following fresh was also aimed at vegetation objectives (Cottingham et al 2010)). In previous years the duration of this spring fresh has had a duration of two weeks above 5,600 ML/day. In the report by J. Roberts, 2016 the author suggests the two week duration was originally recommended to allow soil saturation of benches to give establishing plants a good growing environment, and to reduce terrestrial encroachment. Roberts (2016), concludes the two weeks is still valid, especially when targeting regeneration (rather than maintenance), or if the delivered fresh is the only event in a growing season. A shorter duration could be considered where multiple freshes are delivered in a growing season. Given the likelihood of low water availability in 2016-17 (especially early in the season), this may be the only spring fresh in the growing season and hence a two week duration is recommended for 2016 spring were water availability permits. In previous years it has been noted that seed deposition seems to be at different heights on the bank in different flows, and often at one height per event. There is no clear understanding why this would happen. A paper by Merritt and Wohl (2002) suggests descending and stepped flow recession

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promotes seed deposition. In an attempt to encourage seed deposition at different heights down the bank within the one flow event ‘stepped’ recession may be adopted in the planning of the spring fresh in 2016. The next highest priority (three) is the delivery of an autumn fresh for vegetation. An autumn fresh will help maintain any vegetation that has established from the spring fresh and will encourage germination of new seed. The fresh will also achieve some macroinvertebrate objectives including resuspension of fine sediment from macroinvertebrate habitats and assist to improve water quality. This fresh would be up to at least 5,600 ML/day for two days where water is available. In the situation where there is not enough water to deliver this design, a fresh with one to two days at 4,500 ML/day would be delivered. The fourth priority is to provide for baseflows in the following year (2017-18). This baseflow priority is to provide for 540 ML/day at Murchison for three months (July - September inclusive). However, it should be noted this baseflow is not provided for in the 99% probability of exceedance scenario- extreme dry (scenario one). In scenario one, allocation outlooks in February are very low (21%) and without significant inflows in winter 2017 there is a high chance there would not be enough water to run the system in early 2017-18 (low chance of the ability to use carryover), hence there would be no advantage to carry water to the following year under this scenario. Additionally, the need to carry over water in scenarios four and five (wetter scenarios) are low given these years are characterised by good reservoir inflows and high likelihood of available water allocation at the start of 2017-18. Priority five to seven include higher baseflow throughout the year. The higher baseflow would vary between 770 and 940 ML/day at McCoys (500/830 ML/day at Murchison). Higher baseflows provide for more macroinvertebrate objectives including the submergence of additional snags to provide increased food and habitat for macroinvertebrates, and in reach five, entrainment of litter packs as a food and habitat source, disruption of biofilms and maintenance of water quality. These are priorities five to seven in order of season i.e. winter/spring is priority five, summer is priority six and autumn/winter is priority seven. Priority eight is to deliver a spring/summer fresh to stimulate golden perch spawning. This fresh is still a high priority given the lack of spawning during the drought and the current monitoring program targeting Golden perch spawning. Significant spawning was last observed in the Goulburn River in November 2014. Evidence from the 2014 spawning event indicated that golden perch started spawning on the rising limb around 3,000 ML/day. In November 2012 a fresh with a peak of around 5,400 ML/day for around 14 days failed to stimulate spawning. It is unsure whether peak flow, antecedent conditions or water temperature were influencers. Hence a peak flow as high as possible, but at least 5,600ML/day for two days would be required. Depending on seasonal conditions and water availability this event may, or may not, occur. Timing for the delivery would be in November or December. Priority nine is the delivery of a summer pulse to attract native fish migration to the river. In recent years we have had success with golden perch spawning, but despite the good results, young of year and 1 to 3 year fish are not present in the Goulburn River. It is not clear if the larvae are surviving (or not) to juvenile fish, or floating downstream and taking up residence in the Murray River or its downstream tributaries. Based on adult fish surveys, golden perch found in the Goulburn River seem to be older than 1 to 3 years, and hence there is a missing link in the population structure. These attractant flows aim to get golden perch to migrate to the Goulburn River and add to the population structure of this species. This flow requires a large volume of water and designed to ideally have a slow rate of rise and fall (i.e. not a “peaky” design) and long duration e.g. 10 days, with peak flow rates of 5,000 ML/day and above. The exact requirements to attract native fish to migrate into the Goulburn River are unknown, and we have assigned a peak flow rate of 4,500 ML/day for one day and 10 days above 3,600 ML/day. This pulse is estimated at approximately 73 GL.

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Delivering this type of ‘attractant’ flow will need to be coordinated with flows in the Murray River to achieve the desired velocity difference to attract golden perch into the Goulburn River. The optimum time of year for this flow is late summer/early autumn. There are a number of factors need to be resolved to enable delivery of this flow. To determine if these flows are having the desired effect of increasing native fish movement into the Goulburn River, monitoring will need to be established prior to the event. The proposed monitoring method includes acoustic tagging of up to 50 fish, and deploying acoustic listening stations in Murray River and tributaries, and at the confluence with the Goulburn River. It is also proposed to collect depth and velocity measurements for a range of flows in the lower Goulburn River. Without such monitoring the success or otherwise of delivering these flows is not measurable, nor recommended. Monitoring will occur over several seasons with and without the attractant flow. Additionally, given the design requirements of this flow and its potential to impact irrigator’s access to pumps during summer/early autumn, negotiation and agreement with GMW and irrigators is required prior to the event occurring. Further consideration of these issues and the exact design of the attractant flow is required prior to the event occurring, installation of monitoring does not create the expectation that the event will occur or change the priority of the flow. Priority ten is for the use of water to slow the recession of natural, or man made releases, from Lake Eildon and Goulburn Weir. This could be used to slow the recession of unregulated flows released below Goulburn Weir, or flows from Lake Eildon. Due to uncertainty in rainfall and run off forecasting, the release of environmental water to coincide with a rain event is unlikely in the short term, therefore the provision of true translucent flows is currently not possible in the Goulburn River. However once the peak flow has passed, environmental water from Lake Eildon may be used to extend the duration of a fresh or provide a double peak flow. A winter fresh is desirable to encourage bank vegetation, and to improve macroinvertebrate habitat and included as priority eleven. It can often be provided by catchment runoff, but would be desirable to deliver with environmental water in a dry winter when the water is available. In 2016-17 a winter fresh is planned to be delivered commencing in June 2017. The aim will be to reach a peak flow of at least 6,600 ML/day for 14 days, with a higher peak if possible. With the appropriate rates of rise and fall the entire fresh would last for one month. This is considered a low priority for 2016-17 given the likely low allocations at the beginning of the year, but is included in the instance that high spring or summer rain provides higher than expected allocations and water in storage. The priority flow components are summarised in Table 7. The movement of Inter-Valley Transfers and/or environmental water for the Murray River can create summer/autumn flows that are too high causing ecological damage to the lower Goulburn River. The design of the summer and autumn flow regimes will need to take this into account where able. The GBCMA plan to work with GMW and MDBA to manage this. For compliance monitoring the water measurement point for reach four is Murchison, and reach five measurement point is McCoys Bridge. As a general rule, when there is limited tributary inflows and high extraction rates to meet irrigation and consumptive demands (spring, summer and autumn), the plan aims to meet flow targets for McCoys Bridge. This ensures adequate flow moves through Murchison to meet the targets for reach four. Alternatively, when there is greater catchment runoff contributing to flows in reach five (mainly winter and spring), the plan aims to achieve flow targets for Murchison to ensure both reaches meet their flow targets.

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With the risk of flooding private land still unresolved, environmental flows will not be used to deliver overbank flows in the 2016-17 year. Table 7: Summary of priority environmental flow components 2016-17

PRIORITY FLOW

COMPONENT YEAR SEASON Environmental Objective

FLOW (ML/DAY)

REACH 4 REACH 5

1 Baseflow 2016/17 All year

Provide fish passage, and habitat for macroinvertebrates

and fish. Provide newly established bank vegetation

with appropriate flows to extend their range

500 540

2 Fresh 2016 Winter/Spring

Water bank vegetation, provide soil moisture to banks and benches, distribute seed, and allow plants to flower and

seed for later germination and/or distribution

Up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 day

above 5,600 ML/day

Up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 day above 5,600 ML/day

3 Fresh 2017 Autumn

Maintain existing vegetation and that established from the

spring fresh and encourage germination of new seed

Up to 5,600 ML/day for 2 days

Up to 5,600 ML/day for 2 days

4 Baseflow

carryover 2017 July-September

Provide fish passage, and habitat for macroinvertebrates

and fish. Provide newly established bank vegetation

with appropriate flows to extend their range

500 540

5 Baseflow 2016 Winter/spring Increase habitat area for

instream flora and fauna and water bank vegetation

830 940

6 Baseflow 2016-17 Summer Increase habitat area for

instream flora and fauna and water bank vegetation

830 940

7 Baseflow 2017 Autumn/winter Increase habitat area for

instream flora and fauna and water bank vegetation

830 940

8 Fresh 2016 Spring/summer Golden perch spawning Up to

15,000ML/day for 2 days

Up to 15,000ML/day for 2 days

9 Fresh 2017 Summer/autumn Provide for fish

migration/attractant flow

One fresh up to 5,000ML/day for 10

days

One fresh up to 5,000ML/day for 10

days

10 Recession

flows 2016-17 All year

Provide slower recession to unregulated flows, or add to

pulses following natural cues/unregulated flows

As required (all reaches 1 -5)

11 Fresh 2017 Autumn/winter Maintain bank vegetation, improve water quality and macroinvertebrate habitat

Up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 day above 6,600 ML

Note flow components shaded in green are high priorities. Delivery of components shaded in orange will depend on the seasonally adaptive allocation process.

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6. Scenario planning Environmental water management aims to allow runoff and operation of the water system to meet as many environmental flow objectives as possible, and then deploy water from environmental entitlements into the highest priority gaps that remain. However, under different climate conditions, environmental flow gaps move and deployment of environmental water changes. Therefore a range of climatic scenarios are assessed to understand how priorities and required volumes of environmental water change. The scenarios are based on current conditions such as water volumes in reservoirs, and assume the availability of all environmental water entitlements and their associated water allocations under different climate scenarios. The scenarios then determine how best to maximise the environmental outcomes from their use. Scenario planning assumes The Living Murray (TLM) water can be released precisely to meet Goulburn targets, yet in practice TLM water is delivered to meet Murray River and icon site targets and therefore may be only partially effective in meeting Goulburn targets. Likewise, Commonwealth and Victorian water can be targeted at Murray or South Australian objectives. Importantly, the planning is not concerned with the probability of any particular climate scenario (or in picking the most likely scenario) – it merely ensures there is a plan if any scenario does occur. While various climate indicators exist, predicting the conditions for the coming season (both winter/spring and summer/autumn) has little reliability. The scenarios have been picked to highlight the key decisions that will need to be made about environmental water deployment for 2016-17. The scenarios range from the worst conditions of low flow, to when catchment runoff increases and Eildon is close to spilling. Importantly, the actual management of water through the season needs to be adaptive, with water deployment decisions adjusting as the season unfolds, particularly in response to timing issues. Table 8 details the range of scenarios for water use in the Goulburn River in 2016-17. Further, it is important to note that volumes included with each priority in Table 8 are cumulative; for example an increased baseflow of 940 ML/day already assumes the lower baseflow of 540 ML/day is being provided, hence the required volume seems lower than to deliver 940 ML/day by itself. It is also important to note that all fresh volumes do not include passing flows and lower baseflows (500/540 ML/day) that have already been provided for. Under each scenario 20 GL of Goulburn CEWH entitlement is provided to the Broken Creek for environmental water use in that system. Under extreme dry conditions (scenario 1) there would be enough water to deliver baseflows (500/540 ML/day) for the entire year and perhaps two freshes. Ideally one spring fresh would be delivered, but due to slow allocation increases in this scenario there would not be enough water available to deliver a long duration fresh and consequently a higher magnitude, shorter duration fresh is planned. As more water becomes available during the year, the ability to deliver a small autumn fresh becomes possible. Under this scenario, allocations in February reach 21% and are unlikely to increase much more. Consequently, there may not be enough water for early season allocations or set aside to run the irrigation/water supply system in 2017-18. This would severely impact water availability in 2017/18 and the ability to use any carryover, therefore no carry over is reserved in this scenario. Under dry conditions (scenario 2) unregulated run off provides half a month of baseflows. Water has been set aside to deliver a long duration spring fresh (primarily for vegetation objectives), however if allocation increases are slow, this fresh may need to be modified in duration. An autumn fresh is also possible in this scenario, however reduction of the magnitude of this fresh may need required. February allocations in this scenario reach 54% meaning there will be water available to run the system in 2017-18 but early season water availability will be low, hence 23 GL of water has been set aside to deliver three months of baseflow (540 ML/day at Murchison) to start the year.

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Under the below average scenario (3) there is ultimately much more water available with allocations reaching 100% by February. In this scenario, we would be able to provide the top eight priorities, with additional water remaining for priority ten – providing recession flows. Priority nine requires a large volume of water that is not fully available in this scenario. The need to implement monitoring and agreements for priority nine means priority ten will take precedence under this climate scenario. Water is set aside in this scenario as carry over into 2017-18 (23GL). The 100% allocation is reached quite late in the season and water reserves to commence the following year may be low, therefore 23GL will be used to provide certainty for baseflows for first three months into 2017-18 (in the case that early season allocations are low). Further, it is not forecast to reach 100% allocation until February and consequently there may not be able enough water available early in the season to deliver the spring/summer fresh for golden perch spawning. This will be monitored as the season progresses and the delivery of this second spring fresh may not proceed. Under average conditions (scenario 4), there is more catchment run off providing baseflows and some small natural pulses which will contribute to the long duration spring fresh reducing the amount of environmental water required. Additionally, this scenario is the first time the summer attractant flows for native fish migration are able to be delivered. However delivery of this pulse is dependent on a number of factors and conditions being met as outlined in Section 5. In the case that these conditions cannot be met, a winter fresh (priority 11) could be implemented but would likely be of a shorter duration or peak due to limited water availability. Under wet conditions (scenario 5) run off and unregulated flows provide three months of baseflow and several freshes and one overbank flow. These is no need in this scenario to provide the longer duration spring fresh. Under wet conditions there is enough environmental water available to deliver the summer attractant flows for native fish migration, however as discussed above, this is dependent on a number of factors being met first (see Section 5). If these factors are not met and this flow is not delivered, the environmental water can be set aside to deliver a winter fresh in June 2017. Under this wet scenario, it is possible that not all available environmental water would be required. In 2010-11 and 2011-12 summer storms produced significant runoff events. These events are sporadic in nature, and not correlated with the climate scenarios above (which are based on winter/spring rainfall). Therefore the scenarios above assume these events do not occur. If any of these events occur, they may reduce the need for environmental water releases, and hence result in water being able to meet subsequent autumn and winter priorities, or be carried over for use in 2017-18. However, such events may also require additional water for flow recession management or dissolved oxygen improvement after a summer runoff flow peak.

Inter-Valley Transfers offer the opportunity to meet some of the summer/autumn flow needs, particularly minimum flows and have been included in the scenario planning. It is assumed delivery of Inter-Valley Transfer will be discussed with all stakeholders to maximise the benefits of using consumptive water in transit and minimise any detrimental impacts. Inter-Valley Transfers may also provide baseflows (or higher) during delivery of freshes.

By August/September, decisions on releasing the bank vegetation and fish breeding freshes would be made. If there was significant catchment runoff producing freshes in spring, one or both of these environmental fresh releases may not be required, or environmental water may be added to increase the peak or extend the duration of the unregulated flows. The peak flow achievable for these freshes will be somewhat opportunistic, depending on conditions at the time. If golden perch breeding occurred on the earlier spring fresh (September/October), the spring/summer fish breeding fresh planned for November/December would not be delivered.

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At the end of November, December to February minimum flows would be started at 540 ML/day at McCoys Bridge (and 500 ML/day at Murchison), or 940 ML/day at McCoys Bridge (and 830 ML/day at Murchison), depending on the remaining available environmental water for release. In October/November, the potential availability of Inter-Valley Transfers will become clearer. Given possible supply conditions in the Murray River, IVT could provide a useful but unreliable supply of environmental flow needs. Hence it will be important to have clarified the environmental water available to fill flow gaps in the Inter-Valley Transfers. Planning to minimise the potential impacts of these flows and maximise their value where possible would be undertaken at this time, and continuously throughout the season. In January, release of any summer or autumn freshes would be planned. When Inter-Valley Transfers cease from March/April onwards, maintaining minimum flows at 540 ML/day at McCoys Bridge (and 500 ML/day at Murchison) would occur, or 940 ML/day at McCoys Bridge (and 830 ML/day at Murchison) if adequate environmental water was available. If environmental water is available for a June to September 2017 fresh, it would be planned in March/April/May 2017. During the summer months, flooding may be an issue (as in 2010-11 and 2011-12) requiring a response to flush water after a blackwater event. If summer flooding occurs and environmental water is used to manage water quality, it would reduce the availability of environmental water for use later in the season. Throughout the year recessions after natural events would be monitored to determine the need to add water after specific events to minimise bank slumping by reducing the rate of fall in river level. Additional water may be added to unregulated flows where a fresh can be extend in duration or peak. The provision of most of these flows should be quite feasible as they are well within the sort of flows normally occurring within the Goulburn system. The spring and winter freshes however are aiming to maximise the peak flow that can be achieved. While still within bank, these peak flows will need careful planning and monitoring. These flows also have impacts further downstream and must be coordinated and delivered with cooperation with Goulburn Murray Water and the Murray River operations group. The environmental water leaving the Goulburn system has potential to be used again for downstream environmental benefits in the Murray system, including the Lower Lakes. Importantly, the Goulburn environmental flow study defines a range of flow components that need to be optimised. This proposal specifies bulk water volumes required to achieve various environmental objectives, however as the season unfolds the design of specific flow regimes to optimise outcomes will be required. This will require flexible and adaptive water planning and deployment. In particular, adding to existing freshes and flow recessions will require responding to circumstances at the time.

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Table 8: Scenario descriptions for the Goulburn River

Reaches 4 and 5 Scenario 1

Extreme dry 99% POE

Scenario 2 Dry

90% POE

Scenario 3 Below average

70% POE

Scenario 4 Average 50% POE

Scenario 5 Wet

10% POE

Expected river conditions

No unregulated flow

One or two short duration freshes in winter/spring (1,000 – 5,000 ML/day for

around 6 days) Unregulated flows may provide half

month baseflows

One to three freshes in winter/spring (3,000 – 20,000 ML/day for around 7 days) and

reasonable baseflows for one month

Reasonable baseflows for much of the year (although would be reduced during irrigation season), several freshes and perhaps one to

two bankfull flow

Baseflows for most of the year (although would be reduced during irrigation season), several moderate freshes and an overbank

flow in winter/spring

Bulk entitlement minimums will be delivered

400 ML/day at McCoys from July – October 350 ML/day at McCoys from November – June

Expected water allocations

21% HRWS allocation 54% HRWS allocation 100% HRWS 100% HRWS 100% HRWS

Low likelihood of dam spill

Expected water availability from water

holders

CEWH – 58 GL TLM – 8 GL

VEWH – 15 GL

CEWH – 149 GL TLM – 21 GL

VEWH – 15 GL

CEWH – 276 GL TLM – 39 GL

VEWH – 15 GL

CEWH – 276 GL TLM – 39 GL

VEWH – 15 GL

CEWH – 276 GL TLM – 39 GL

VEWH – 15 GL

Carryover from 15-16

CEWH – 60 GL TLM – 14 GL

CEWH – 60 GL TLM – 14 GL

CEWH – 60 GL TLM – 14 GL

CEWH – 60 GL TLM – 14 GL

CEWH – 60 GL TLM – 14 GL

Total water available from water holders

155 GL 259 GL 404 GL 404 GL 404 GL

Demands 20 GL will be supplied to the Broken Creek from CEWH Goulburn entitlement in every scenario

Expected IVT available 61 GL 94 GL 140 GL 140 GL 140 GL

Preferable use of Inter-Valley Transfer (IVT)

Water

Release IVT water for as long as possible over November to March to increase

minimum flows to 540 ML/day (23 GL)

Contribute to spring and/or autumn fresh (35 GL)

Release IVT water for as long as possible over November to March (inclusive) to increase minimum flows to 540 ML/day

(28 GL)

Contribute to spring and/or autumn fresh (50GL)

Release IVT water for as long as possible over November to March (inclusive) to

increase minimum flows to 540 ML/day (28 GL)

Contribute to spring and/or autumn fresh (50GL)

Increase baseflow to 940 ML/day at McCoys for December to March (36 GL)

Release IVT water for as long as possible over December/January to March (inclusive) to

increase minimum flows to 540 ML/day (28 GL)

Contribute to spring and/or autumn fresh (50GL)

Increase baseflow to 940 ML/day at McCoys for December to February (36 GL)

Contribute to short duration second spring/summer fresh (20 GL)

Release IVT water for as long as possible over November to March (inclusive) to

increase minimum flows to 540 ML/day (28 GL)

Contribute to spring and/or autumn fresh (50GL)

Increase baseflow to 940 ML/day at McCoys for December to February (36 GL)

Contribute to short duration second spring/summer fresh (20 GL)

Environmental objectives

Encourage bank vegetation regeneration to increase cover and maintain existing bank vegetation extent and vigour

Maximise movement and habitat provision for adult and juvenile native fish

Improve macroinvertebrate habitat and availability

Inundate benches to initiate carbon cycling and improve instream primary productivity

Encourage population growth of golden perch

Minimise bank erosion/slumping

Priority watering actions

1 Increase July to November baseflow to

500 ML/day at Murchison (38 GL)

Increase July to November baseflow to 500 ML/day at Murchison (34 GL –

unregulated flows provide ½ month)

Increase July to November baseflow to 500 ML/day at Murchison (30 GL – unregulated

flows provide 1 month)

Increase July to November baseflow to 500 ML/day at Murchison (23 GL – unregulated

flows provide 2 month)

Increase July to November baseflow to 500 ML/day at Murchison (15 GL – unregulated

flows provide 3 months)

1 Increase December to February minimum

flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys (0 GL – IVT provides 3 months)

Increase December to February minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys (0 GL – IVT provides 3 months)

Increase December to February minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys (0 GL – IVT provides 3 months)

Increase December to February minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys (6 GL – IVT provides 2 months)

Increase December to February minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys (9 GL – IVT provides 1 ½ month)

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Reaches 4 and 5 Scenario 1

Extreme dry 99% POE

Scenario 2 Dry

90% POE

Scenario 3 Below average

70% POE

Scenario 4 Average 50% POE

Scenario 5 Wet

10% POE

1 Increase March to June minimum flows to

540 ML/day at McCoys (17 GL – IVT provides 1 month)

Increase March to June minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys

(17 GL – IVT provides 1 month)

Increase March to June minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys

(17 GL – IVT provides 1 month)

Increase March to June minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys

(17 GL – IVT provides one month)

Increase March to June minimum flows to 540 ML/day at McCoys

(23 GL)

2 Provide a short duration winter/spring fresh up to 15,000 ML/day aiming for 2

days at 8,500 ML/day (48 GL)

Provide a winter/spring fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 5,600

ML/day (123 GL*)

Provide a winter/spring fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 5,600 ML/day

(123 GL*)

Provide a winter/spring fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 5,600 ML/day (62 GL* - unregulated flows provide half required

volume)

Provide a winter/spring fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 5,600 ML/day

(0 GL - unregulated flows provide this fresh)

3 Provide an autumn fresh up to 4,500

ML/day for 1 day (33 GL available for the required 35 GL)

Provide an autumn fresh up to 4,500 ML/day for 2 days (40 GL)

Provide an autumn fresh up to 5,600 ML/day for 2 days (48 GL+)

Provide an autumn fresh up to 5,600 ML/day for 2 days (48 GL+)

Provide an autumn fresh up to 5,600 ML/day for 2 days (48 GL+)

4 High priority carryover

Increase July to September 2017 minimum flows to 500 ML/day at

Murchison (23 GL)

Increase July to September 2017 minimum flows to 500 ML/day at Murchison (23 GL)

5

Increase two months of July to November baseflow to 830 ML/day at Murchison (22 GL – water availability too low to deliver in July and August, and 1 month provided in

spring fresh)

Increase three months of July to November baseflow to 830 ML/day at Murchison (32 GL – 1 month provided in spring fresh, 1 month

unregulated flows)

Increase July to November baseflow to 830 ML/day at Murchison (20 GL – unregulated

flows provide 3 months)

6 Increase March to June 2017 baseflow to 940 ML/day at McCoys (36 GL, one month

provided by autumn fresh)

Increase March to June 2017 baseflow to 940 ML/day at McCoys (36 GL, one month

provided by autumn fresh)

Increase March to June 2017 baseflow to 940 ML/day at McCoys (36 GL, one month

provided by autumn fresh)

7 Increase December to February baseflow to 940 ML/day (0 GL – IVT provides 3 months)

Increase December to February baseflow to 940 ML/day (0 GL – IVT provides 3 months)

Increase December to February baseflow to 940 ML/day (6 GL – IVT provides 1 ½

months)

8 Provide a 2 day spring/summer fresh up to 15,000 ML/day for Golden perch spawning

(48 GL#)

Provide a 2 day spring/summer fresh up to 15,000 ML/day (48 GL#)

Provide a 2 day spring/summer fresh up to 15,000 ML/day (48 GL#)

9 Summer pulses to attract golden perch

migration into the Goulburn River (73 GL^ requirement)&

Summer pulses to attract golden perch migration into the Goulburn River (73 GL^

requirement)&

10

Extension/recession flows to provide slower rates of fall on unregulated releases, or

extend the duration or peak of unregulated freshes (30 GL)

Extension/recession flows to provide slower rates of fall on unregulated releases, or

extend the duration of unregulated freshes (30 GL)

Extension/recession flows to provide slower rates of fall on unregulated releases, or

extend the duration of unregulated freshes (20 GL)

11

Autumn/winter 2017 fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 6,600 ML/day

(80 GL available of the 120 GL required therefore a modified event would be

delivered)

Additional priorities if more water was available

Increase July to November baseflow to

830 ML/day at Murchison (53 GL) Increase July to November baseflow to

830 ML/day at Murchison (53 GL)

Increase March to June 2017 baseflow to

940 ML/day at McCoys (49 GL) Increase March to June 2017 baseflow to

940 ML/day at McCoys (49 GL)

Increase December to February baseflow

to 940 ML/day (35 GL) Increase December to February baseflow

to 940 ML/day (35 GL)

Provide a 2 day spring/summer fresh up

to 15,000 ML/day (48 GL#) Provide a 2 day spring/summer fresh up

to 15,000 ML/day (48 GL#)

Summer pulses to attract golden perch

migration into the Goulburn River (73 GL^ requirement)

Summer pulses to attract golden perch migration into the Goulburn River (73 GL^

requirement)

Summer pulses to attract golden perch migration into the Goulburn River (73 GL^)

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Reaches 4 and 5 Scenario 1

Extreme dry 99% POE

Scenario 2 Dry

90% POE

Scenario 3 Below average

70% POE

Scenario 4 Average 50% POE

Scenario 5 Wet

10% POE

Extension/recession flows to provide slower rates of fall on unregulated releases, or extend the duration of

unregulated freshes

Extension/recession flows to provide slower rates of fall on unregulated releases, or extend the duration of

unregulated freshes

Autumn/winter 2017 fresh up to 15,000

ML/day with 14 days above 6,600 ML/day (120 GL)

Autumn/winter 2017 fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 6,600 ML/day

(120 GL)

Autumn/winter 2017 fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 6,600 ML/day

(120 GL)

Autumn/winter 2017 fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 6,600 ML/day

(120 GL)

Autumn/winter 2017 fresh up to 15,000 ML/day with 14 days above 6,600 ML/day

(120 GL; if enough water this would be delivered in full rather than the partial

event outlined above) *123 GL required to reach a peak of 8,500 ML/day

+48 GL required for 4,500 ML/day peak

#48 GL required for peak of 8,500 ML/day if delivered in spring. Due to slower rates of recession a larger volume of water would be required to deliver this in December

^ 73 GL required for peak of 4,500 ML/day and 10 days above 3,600 ML/day

& delivery of summer attractant flows can only be delivered subject to a number of conditions as detailed in Section 5

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In summary, this proposal suggests the use of the available environmental entitlements held in the Goulburn water supply system, the seasonal allocations and any carryover associated with those entitlements. Table 9 outlines the environmental water assumed to be used under a range of climate scenarios to support this proposal. It assumes the Commonwealth holding is 276 GL of High Reliability Water Shares (HRWS) and 60 GL of HRWS as carry over, The Living Murray holding is 39 GL of HRWS and 14 GL of carry over, and NVIRP savings of 15 GL. Additional water can be used if available and this is also listed in Table 9. However, any proposal for water to be traded into the Goulburn system would need to be assessed against the available volume of Inter-Valley Transfer water and the potential impacts of reduced summer flows. Table 9: Summary of environmental water used to support this proposal (GL)

Reaches 4 and 5 Scenario 1

Extreme dry 99% POE

Scenario 2 Dry

90% POE

Scenario 3 Below

average 70% POE

Scenario 4 Average 50% POE

Scenario 5 Wet

10% POE

Planned environmental water use

135 237 378 375 378

Additional water that could be used if available

400 400 193 120 -

The 80 GL additional passing flows available from Lake Eildon under the Goulburn Bulk Entitlement is only available in a narrow window of climatic conditions. In 2016-17, these conditions do not occur for the release to be triggered. Under the Goulburn bulk entitlement, minimum flows (specified in the Bulk Entitlement) can be reduced under drought conditions, with the saved water banked for later use. There is no scenario in 2016-17 that would require this to be undertaken.

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7. Implementation arrangements and delivery constraints No formal operating arrangements exist for the Goulburn River. Capacity constraints in supplying water at Goulburn Weir are possible, and GMW will consult with GBCMA when such circumstances could occur.

7.1 Delivery constraints Environmental water delivery is primarily constrained by the risk of flooding private and public land and assets. Operational arrangements at regulating structures and delivery of consumptive water within the catchment and downstream may also constrain the ability to meet flow recommendations (GB CMA, 2015) Bureau of Meteorology minor flood levels at each flow measurement point along the Goulburn River are as follows:

3 metres (14,500 ML/d) at Eildon (reach 1)

4 metres (21,700 ML/d) at Trawool (reach 2)

4 metres (24,800 ML/d) at Seymour (reach 3)

9 metres (33,100 ML/d) at Murchison (reach 4)

9 metres (28,300 ML/d) at McCoys Bridge (reach 5)

However, constraints to delivery of environmental flows are expected at lower flows than these. The following limitations and reasoning have been identified (GB CMA, 2015)

Releases from Eildon are typically limited to 9,500ML/day to avoid inundation of private land.

In the lower Goulburn the estimated bankfull flow at Shepparton, limits deliveries to approximately 18,000 ML/day.

7.2 Notice and time required A minimum notice period of one to two days, and preferably four days, is required for environmental water orders from Goulburn system storages. Releases from Lake Eildon take approximately 2½ days to reach Goulburn Weir. Releases from Goulburn Weir take one day to reach Murchison, four days to reach Shepparton, and seven to eight days to reach McCoys Bridge. However this can be influenced by existing conditions in the river channel and seasonal conditions. If flows are being harvested at Goulburn Weir into Waranga Basin, releases can be made from Goulburn Weir by reducing harvesting, hence saving travel time from Lake Eildon. Planning for environmental flows that are likely to impact diverters downstream of Goulburn Weir will commence at least four weeks in advance to allow GMW to advise its customers. If GMW foresees other constraints in making environmental water available, the GBCMA Environmental Water Manager will be advised accordingly.

7.3 Costs Relevant headworks costs for environmental entitlements are met by the environmental water entitlement holders. There are no water delivery costs.

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8. Risk management

8.1 Environmental water delivery The risks associated with the proposed water delivery in the Goulburn system are listed in Table 10. Risks were primarily identified at the VEWH risk workshops held in Tatura on the 22 February 2016 and have been adapted to consider specific risks for the Goulburn River. Storage operator maintenance can influence winter fresh delivery. The other associated risks and risk ratings are the same for each season. Mitigation strategies that will be employed to address the risks identified are also detailed in 10 along with the lead agencies. The key management activities with immediate outcomes include:

management of flooding risk associated with delivering freshes by considering potential rainfall runoff in deciding when to commence releases and whether to cease releases prematurely;

to keep key stakeholders advised of release plans and outcomes of releases. Importantly risks associated with our current level of knowledge need attention now, but will take time to reduce the associated risks. The risk of flooding arises from catchment runoff adding flow on top of environmental releases. The key issue is the unpredictability of the amount of rainfall and runoff. At Shepparton, flooding occurs at approximately 18,000 ML/day, although inundation of some assets (such as irrigation pumps) occurs at much lower flows (anecdotally as low as 3500 ML/day). Managing the risk of flooding is a balance in determining spare capacity in the river to carry the rainfall runoff and the potential reduction/suspension of environmental releases required when rainfall is forecast. The highest flow (due to capacity constraints) from Lake Eildon that can be provided is 9,000 to 10,000 ML/day under dry conditions, and assumes no irrigation water supply demand. This leaves 9,000 to 8,000 ML/day of spare river capacity in the lower Goulburn to carry runoff on a dry catchment. Under wet conditions, lower flow releases would be needed to deal with the potentially higher runoff downstream of Lake Eildon. However, following a rainfall runoff event short duration releases of 9,000 ML/day could be added to the recession to achieve higher flow rates or extended duration when little or no rainfall is forecast in the seven day outlook. The higher the flow rate (due to runoff), the more likely the flow release would be reduced or ceased due to the uncertain response to rain, making provision of the environmental or water supply flow erratic and potentially unreliable.

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1. Risk category abbreviations are: Env. – environment/sustainability; BC – business cost; Safety – People/safety/wellbeing; Rep – Political/reputation; Legal – legal consequence; Service – service delivery 2. L refers to the Likelihood of a risk occurring. Abbreviations for consequence ratings are: AC – almost certain; L – likely; P – possible; U – unlikely; R - rare 3. C refers to the Consequence if the risk occurs. Abbreviations for consequence ratings are: N – negligible; Min – minor; Mod – moderate; Maj – major; Ext - extreme

Table 10: Risk assessment of the proposed Goulburn River water delivery

No. Risk category1

Risk description L2 C3 Risk rating

Mitigation actions Lead organisn. for action

1 Env Current recommendations on environmental flow inaccurate L Min Medium Focus on monitoring results and reassess recommendations as necessary GBCMA

2 Env Inaccurate accounting and measurement causes target flows not being achieved, leading to a failure to achieve planned environmental outcomes

P Mod Medium Review accounting and measurement processes to be used to ensure techniques are agreed and monitoring/measurement sites are operational. Compliance sites are managed under the statewide Regional Water Monitoring partnership to measurement/metering standards

GMW/GBCMA

3 BC Volumes delivered or released exceed volumes approved for use in the event. P Maj High Ensure that deliveries are reported progressively throughout the event and monitored against ordered volume. GBCMA

4 Env Storage operator maintenance works affect the ability to meet an environmental delivery.

P Mod Medium Undertake early planning and communications with storage operator to minimise likelihood of constraints and enable scheduling of maintenance outside of high demand periods.

GBCMA

5 Env Resource manager cannot deliver require volume or inflow rate (outlet/capacity constraints, insufficient storage volume)

P Maj High Continued liaison with storage operator to plan releases around system operation to maximise environmental releases GBCMA

6 Env Release volumes are not sufficient to cover high consumptive water demands leading to the result that target flows/volumes are not achieved, impacting on environmental outcomes

U Mod Medium Event planning will seek to avoid peak demand periods, and events will be monitored and adjusted as necessary.

GBCMA

7 Legal Environmental releases cause unauthorised inundation of private land, resulting in impacts on landowner activities and assets.

U Maj High Releases designed to avoid overbank flows. Monitoring of events and adjustment of releases to avoid overbank flows. Monitor deliveries to build an understanding of flow patterns and inundation thresholds and adjust releases accordingly.

GBCMA GMW GBCMA

8 Legal Environmental releases causes flooding to public infrastructure or crown land. Access routes into public land areas may be inundated by delivery of environmental water, leading to potential economic impacts on commercial operators who are unable to undertake activities (includes timber and firewood harvesting, apiarist, tourism operators).

R Mod Low Communication and advice to community to alert them of environmental watering Consider potential catchment runoff from forecast rainfall in deciding when to commence releases and whether to prematurely cease releases

GBCMA/GMW

9 Env Environmental water deliveries result in low DO levels, with adverse environmental impacts.

L Maj Extreme Ensure regular winter flushes of potential risk areas to control organic build-up, and plan deliveries to avoid high temperature periods where practical. Monitor water quality and utilise the Goulburn Water Quality reserve for dilution flows if low DO conditions emerge.

GBCMA GBCMA

10 Env Environmental water deliveries may generate or mobilise BGA blooms, with adverse water quality and environmental impacts

P Maj High Consider likelihood of initiating BGA blooms in event planning and amend as required to manage risk. Monitor events, and where issues are identified, activate existing BGA response processes.

GBCMA GMW

11 Rep Environmental deliveries may conflict with or not compliment water based recreational objectives, leading to loss of community support for activities.

AC Maj Extreme Communicate benefits of environmental watering to the broader community and engage with recreational user peak bodies. Engage with local recreational user groups to inform them of environmental watering activities and the underlying rationale. Adjust timing of events to reduce/avoid impact where practical and environmental outcomes are not reduced.

VEWH GBCMA

12 Env Environmental water account is overdrawn, leading to water not being available as per approved watering statement to complete planned actions.

R Maj Medium Monitor ABA balances and undertake regular communications with CMA as part of portfolio management activities. VEWH

13 BC Insufficient staff resources available to deliver all planned environmental watering actions, leading to cancellation or interruptions of deliveries.

P Ext Extreme Continue to actively prioritise actions to match available resources and ensure key actions are delivered. Reallocation of tasks and available funding.

GBCMA GBCMA

14 Rep Inability to demonstrate outcomes achieved through environmental watering activities may lead to a loss of public/political support for activities

P Maj High Rationalisation and refocussing of current monitoring programs (e.g. VEFMAP) to better identifying outcomes. Seek additional funds to address gaps in monitoring programs

DELWP VEWH

15 Env Environmental deliveries create improved conditions for non-native species (e.g. carp, invasive species) leading to adverse environmental impacts.

L Mod Extreme Study/understand life history of species and develop management strategies.

DELWP

16 Rep Community concern over environmental releases under dry seasonal conditions may lead to a loss of support for environmental watering actions.

L Mod High Communicate benefits of environmental watering to the community. Enhance community understanding of water system operations and entitlement frameworks (water literacy).

GBCMA VEWH

17 Env Releases from Lake Eildon for TLM/IVT deliveries to the Murray may not align with optimal environmental requirements in the Goulburn system under dry conditions

L Maj Extreme Communicate the purpose of TLM flows to the community. Communicate the purpose of other IVT flows to the community. Work with storage manager to deliver required volumes while maximising benefit/minimising impacts.

GBCMA GMW GBCMA

18 Env Dry conditions and limited environmental deliveries may reduce opportunities to test ecological responses to environmental flows, impacting on effectiveness of 5 year LTIM research project.

L Min Medium Review monitoring program and adjust if possible. Reprioritise flows to get best benefit from monitoring (with support from CEWO)

GBCMA

19 Safety Environmental releases interfere with irrigation and pumping L Min Medium Provide public with information on fresh release through various media. Notify diverters directly via letter or SMS

GBCMA GMW

20 Safety Environmental releases causes personal injury to river user R Mod Low Provide public with information on fresh release through various media. GBCMA

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8.2 Other water delivery While this proposal focuses on how to use water to maximise environmental benefits to the Goulburn River, water supply and environmental releases can be routed through the Goulburn River to the Murray River for other purposes. For example, The Living Murray water targets environmental outcomes at the six Murray icon sites, and Inter-Valley Transfers are targeted at meeting consumptive water demand in the Murray River. Some of these releases can pose a risk to the Goulburn River and may increase the risk of flooding private and public infrastructure which needs to be managed. In the lower Goulburn River, water releases in winter/spring generally pose little risk to the environment provided flow rates of rise and fall are not greater than those specified in Cottingham et al 2007. Cottingham et al recommended the following maximum rates of river level rise and fall for reach four:

Winter Spring Rise (metres/day) 1.2 0.80 Fall (metres/day) 0.78 0.71

Experience in 2012-13 indicates that slower rates of fall are preferable, particularly after prolonged flows. These are determined on a case by case basis. In the lower Goulburn for water releases in summer and autumn, Cottingham et al 2007 identified a significant environmental risk from persistent high flows. Key impacts include:

bank notching and erosion

bank slumping

delivery of sediments resulting in infilling of pools

loss of macrophytes

reduced phytoplankton production

reduced macroinvertebrate growth

Essentially this limits the maximum flow to 5,240 ML/day at McCoys Bridge for a maximum of two days over this period in a median climatic year, to pose a low risk to the environment, with greater durations allowable for lower flow rates. As a guide, flows greater than approximately 2,500 ML/day can occur for less than 50% of the time (determined by season). Rates of rise and fall also pose a risk, and Cottingham et al 2007 recommended maximum rates in reach four of rise of 0.38 metres/day for summer and autumn, and maximum rates of fall of 0.09 metres/day for both summer and autumn, with rates desirably less than these. In the mid Goulburn River, water releases in winter/spring generally pose little risk to the environment provided rates of rise and fall are not greater than those specified in Cottingham et al 2014a. For reach one, Cottingham et al recommended the maximum rate of rise be limited to 2.0 times the previous days flow (for flows from 1,000 to 5,000 ML/day) and 2.7 times the previous days flow (for flows above 5,000 ML/day). Maximum rates of fall should be limited to 0.8 times the previous days flow. In the mid Goulburn River, water releases in summer/autumn (and some springs) are consistently too high as water is transferred from Lake Eildon to Goulburn Weir to meet irrigation demands. Cottingham et al 2003 identified the need for flows to be less than 1,400 to 3,000 ML/day for various environmental outcomes.

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9. Monitoring and reporting

9.1 Current monitoring programs River flows and water quality are currently monitored through the North East Monitoring Partnership and often assist in environmental flow management. Sites of flow monitoring on the Goulburn River are Lake Eildon, Killingworth, Trawool, Seymour, Goulburn Weir, Murchison, Shepparton, Loch Garry (level only) and McCoys Bridge. Water quality monitoring includes continuous (i.e. 15 minute intervals) and non continuous monitoring. Continuous data collection has been occurring since 2009 (primarily in response to drought) and non continuous monitoring (on a monthly basis) has been occurring for more than ten years. Table 11 lists the sites, frequency and parameters that are used for environmental flow monitoring. This monitoring is used frequently (sometimes daily) in short term environmental flow management to assist decision making, especially for minimising the risk of dissolved oxygen sags and potential fish kills or other water quality issues. Table 11: Monitoring sites on the Goulburn River used in environmental flow management

Site Parameter

Continuous monitoring

Goulburn River@McCoys Bridge Dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, temperature, level

Goulburn River@Shepparton Golf Club Dissolved oxygen, temperature

Goulburn River@Murchison Temperature, electrical conductivity

Goulburn River@Trawool Turbidity, electrical conductivity, temperature, level

Goulburn River@Goulburn Weir Dissolved oxygen, temperature, turbidity

Goulburn River@Tabilk Dissolved oxygen, temperature, electrical conductivity

Non continuous monitoring

Goulburn River@McCoys Bridge TP, TN, dissolved organic carbon

Goulburn River@Shepparton Suspended solids, turbidity, TP, TN

Goulburn River@Murchison Dissolved oxygen, temperature, turbidity, electrical conductivity, suspended solids, TP, TN

Goulburn River@Trawool Dissolved oxygen, temperature, turbidity, electrical conductivity, suspended solids, TP, TN

Goulburn River@Eildon Dissolved oxygen, temperature, turbidity, electrical conductivity, suspended solids, TP, TN

A number of programs are conducted in the Goulburn Broken catchment to specifically monitor environmental flows and associated ecological conditions. The longest running program is the Victorian Environmental Flows Monitoring and Assessment Program (VEFMAP). This program commenced in 2008-09 and has twelve sites in the lower Goulburn River. It involves monitoring vegetation, fish, macroinvertebrates, channel features and physical habitat. Not all parameters are measured at each site. The assessments are carried out on a range of timeframes (varying from annual, to when a channel changing event occurs) and are a long term assessment (five to ten years) of the impacts and changes from environmental flows. The analysis of this data is based on statistical methods rather than before-after style monitoring. 2010-11 was the first year of the monitoring program to have significant flows and hence the first year that any flow response may occur. Consequently, the previous year’s monitoring provided baseline data only. Since 2010-11, environmental water has been released every year and VEFMAP monitoring may be able to detect some response. However, it is difficult to

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specifically extract flow as the main reason for any environmental change given the monitoring methods employed. The future of VEFMAP is currently being reviewed for methods and funding. Following two years of short term intervention monitoring (2012-14), the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder commenced a long term (five year) environmental monitoring program in the lower Goulburn River – the Long Term Intervention Monitoring (LTIM) program. The program commenced in 2014-15 and is monitoring fish populations, spawning and movement, stream metabolism, macroinvertebrates, vegetation diversity, hydrology and hydraulics, physical habitat and bank condition. Monitoring is focused on reach five of the Goulburn River (Loch Garry to the Murray River), with some components having additional monitoring in reach four (Goulburn Weir to Loch Garry).

9.2 Knowledge gaps and limitations There are numerous knowledge gaps in general environmental flow management such as; how much reliance do juvenile native fish have on slackwater habitats, just how productive are slackwater habitats, how does bank vegetation respond to flows with respect to bank slope and aspect, what duration of wetting is required to encourage and maintain appropriate vegetation zonation on the river bank. Specifically relating to the Goulburn River, some key knowledge gaps occur in both the mid and lower Goulburn River. From the mid Goulburn flows study (Cottingham et al 2014), experience managing environmental flows and community feedback, some key knowledge gaps for in 2016-17 include:

is the lack of macroinvertebrate biomass/diversity having impacts on the native fish populations in the catchment (especially the mid Goulburn)

are cold water temperatures are having an impact on the movement of Macquarie perch and other native fish species in the mid Goulburn River

do the proposed freshes deliver the extent of scouring they are aimed at in the mid Goulburn River

are there any works that can be done to remove barriers to floodplain wetlands (primarily in the mid Goulburn)

what is the required flow or environmental cues to promote recruitment of young of year Golden perch into the Lower Goulburn

what is the most appropriate vegetation profile for the banks of the Lower Goulburn and what are the characteristics of the optimum bank site for revegetation

is it possible to achieve multiple ecological benefits in the one year without causing damage to various components (e.g. vegetation versus fish migration)

what value do benches play in the lower Goulburn River, and what are their characteristics and locations

are the recommended rates of rise and fall from reservoirs appropriate

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10. Communications There are three key audiences for communication during 2016-17 operations under the proposal. The primary audience is the agencies involved in delivering the proposed flow management and include GMW, MDBA (river operators), the VEWH and the CEWH. GMW is the key water delivery agency. When the final proposal for 2016-17 is agreed, communications with GMW are aimed at making clear what the intended environmental flow release plans are and their intended purpose. Then, throughout the season, there will be regular communications (phone, email) directly with the water resource management group to understand unregulated flows, GMW planned consumptive use releases, and to organise environmental flow releases. MDBA (river operators) is responsible for calling out Inter-Valley Transfers. Communications (phone, email) will be aimed at initially planning Inter-Valley Transfers to achieve Murray system operational objectives and lower Goulburn River environmental objectives, and then regularly throughout the season, adjusting the plans to conditions as they unfold. MDBA (river operators) will also be consulted prior to the delivery of high winter and spring freshes to avoid any potential downstream impacts in the Murray River. VEWH will use this proposal as the basis (in whole or part), in developing the Seasonal Watering Plan. Water allocated is to be delivered in accordance with the plan and the plan is used to seek agreement from other water holders for the use of their water. Routine communication (phone, email) will report on deployment of water under the plan, and seek to modify release plans to align with downstream site needs as the year unfolds, if necessary. VEWH will also be communication conduit to the CEWH, routine communication will be highlighting risks of summer releases and optimising achievement of lower Goulburn River and Murray River environmental objectives. CEWH may have allocated water to the Seasonal Watering Plan which is based on this proposal, and are responsible for achieving further benefits from the water at downstream environmental sites. The Murray Darling Basin Authority is responsible for delivery of TLM water to the Murray River, with potential benefit to the Goulburn River. The second audience is those potentially affected by or interested in environmental flows and/or river health. This includes Parks Victoria and Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (public land managers), water users along the river (GMW diversion licence holders), campers and recreation users, local government, environment groups, and the general public. These groups have a direct interest in the river as flows may influence their activities. The primary objective is to make them aware of intended flow regimes so they can plan their activities around flow events. A secondary objective is to build an understanding of the change from past flow regimes to a future one managed to achieve improved river health. Communications will primarily be through media releases, GBCMA website, Facebook, Twitter and GMW communication channels. The third audience is the broader public. The communication objective for this audience is to provide information about the decision to provide environmental flows and what it is trying to achieve. These communications will be through media articles of newsworthy actions, and potentially through talks and local newsletters directly with special interest groups. Table 12 outlines the communication process that will be implemented.

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Table 12: Seasonal watering proposal communication approach

STAKEHOLDER PURPOSE ENGAGEMENT TYPE

METHOD TIMING

Proposal implementation

Goulburn Environmental Water Advisory Group

Advise of flow release proposals and seek advice on community and river health related issues

Inform/consult Meetings, telephone and email

May 2016 – June 2017

VEWH

Seek access to water, Report on deployment of water under the plan, and seek to modify release plans to align with downstream site needs as the year unfolds

Inform/consult

Telephone and email

May 2016 – June 2017

MDBA (river operators)

Planning Inter-Valley Transfers to achieve Murray system operational objectives and lower Goulburn River environmental objectives, and adjusting the plans to conditions as they unfold

Inform/consult Telephone and email September 2016 – June 2017

GMW

To understand unregulated flows, planned consumptive use releases, and to organise environmental flow releases

Inform/consult Telephone and email May 2016 – June 2017

Parks Vic, DELWP Inform of future flow events for potential impact on their activities

Inform/consult Telephone and email May 2016 – June 2017

Interest Groups Build understanding of environmental flow objectives and changes in flow regime

Inform Media, possibly newsletters and talks

May 2016 – June 2017

General public

Build understanding of environmental flow objectives and water management to achieve objectives

Inform Media, talks, videos May 2016 – June 2017

I, ..

I, the authorised representative of the agency shown below, approve the Seasonal Watering Proposalfor the Goulburn River 2016-2017.

SIGNED FOR AND ON BEHALF OF THE GouLBURN BROKEN CATCHME"T MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY

Approval

^;",,/'Signature of authorised representative

Chris Norman

Chief Executive Officer

Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority

Name of authorised representative

Date: '^;/::^'IQ. o I e

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12. References Conn, B.J. (1994). Alismataceae. In: Walsh, N.G.; Entwisle, T.J. (eds), Flora of Victoria Vol. 2, Ferns and Allied Plants, Conifers and Monocotyledons. Inkata Press, Melbourne. Accessed from http://data.rbg.vic.gov.au/vicflora/flora/taxon/4e795283-e2cd-492b-8811-b1ba3662b0e5 on 21 March 2016 Cottingham P, Brown P, Lyon J, Pettigrove V, Roberts J, Vietz G, Woodman A, (2014a), Mid Goulburn River FLOWS study - Final Report: flow recommendations. Cottingham P, Brown P, Lyon J, Pettigrove V, Roberts J, Vietz G, Woodman A, (2014b), Mid Goulburn River FLOWS study – Issues paper. Cotthingham P, Vietz G, Roberts J, Frood D, Graesser A, Kaye J, Shields A, (2013) Lower Goulburn River: observations on managing water releases in light of recent bank slumping. Cottingham P, Crook D, Hillman T, Roberts J, Stewardson M, (2010) Objectives for flow freshes in the lower Goulburn River 2010/11. Report prepared for the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority and Goulburn-Murray Water. Cottingham P, Stewardson M, Crook D, Hillman T, Oliver R, Roberts J, Rutherford I, (2007) Evaluation of Summer Inter-Valley Water Transfers from the Goulburn River. Report prepared for the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Shepparton. Cottingham P, Stewardson M, Crook D, Hillman T, Roberts J, Rutherford I, (2003) Environmental Flow Recommendations for the Goulburn River below Lake Eildon. Cooperative Research Centre for Freshwater Ecology and Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Melbourne. Cottingham P, Crook D, Hillman T, Roberts J, Rutherfurd I, and Stewardson M, (2003) Flow related environmental issues related to the Goulburn River below Lake Eildon. Cooperative Research Centre for Freshwater Ecology and Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Melbourne. DSE, (2011). Overbank flow recommendations for the lower Goulburn River. Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria. Ecology Australia - Bloink C and Stevenson K, 2015 VEFMAP fish monitoring of the Goulburn River, Broken River and Broken Creek. A report for the GBCMA Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, (2015a), Goulburn Broken Waterway Strategy 2014 – 2022, Goulburn Broken CMA, Shepparton. Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority (2015b) Goulburn River Environmental Water Management Plan. Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Shepparton. Koster, W., Crook, D., Dawson, D. and Moloney P. (2012) Status of fish populations in the lower Goulburn River (2003 – 2012). Report prepared for the Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Shepparton Miller K, Webb A, de Little S, Stewardson M, Rutherfurd I, (2014) How effective are environmental flows? Analyses of flow ecology relationships in the VEFMAP from 2011-2014. A report for Department of Environment and Primary Industries.

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Merritt E and Wohl E, (2002) Processes governing hydrochory along rivers: hydraulics, hydrology and dispersal phenolgy. Ecological Applications 12(4) p1071 - 1087 Roberts J (2016). Lower Goulburn River: riverbank vegetation and environmental watering. Report JR35/2016 Victorian Government (1995). Bulk Entitlement (Eildon-Goulburn Weir) Conversion Order 1995 (as subsequently amended). Walsh, N.G. (1996). Amaranthaceae. In: Walsh, N.G.; Entwisle, T.J. (eds), Flora of Victoria Vol. 3, Dicotyledons Winteraceae to Myrtaceae. Inkata Press, Melbourne. Accessed from: http://data.rbg.vic.gov.au/vicflora/flora/taxon/a2698aa0-d263-468a-944f-4efc263f276a on 22 March 2016 Webb A, Vietz G, Windecker S, Hladyz S, Thompson R, Koster W, Jones M (2015) Monitoring and Reporting on the ecological outcomes of Commonwealth Environmental water delivered in the lower Goulburn River and Broken Creek 2013/14. A report for the Commonwealth Environmental Water Office. Wilson, K.L. (1994). Cyperaceae. In: Walsh, N.G.; Entwisle, T.J. (eds), Flora of Victoria Vol. 2, Ferns and Allied Plants, Conifers and Monocotyledons. Inkata Press, Melbourne. Accessed from: http://data.rbg.vic.gov.au/vicflora/flora/taxon/22bc2490-6bae-437b-aa1e-016905be48f3 on 21 March 2016