2016 Q2 - Manpowermanpowerillinois.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/UnitedStates_Re… · 2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey SMART JOB NO: 11010 QuARTeR 2 2016 CLIeNT: MANpOweR SuBJeCT:

SMARTJOBNO: 11010 QuARTeR22016

CLIeNT: MANpOweR

SuBJeCT: MeOSQ216–uNITedSTATeS–TwOCOLOuR–uSLeTTeRSIze

SIze: uSLeTTeR279.4x215.9mm

dOCNAMe: 11010_uNITedSTATeS_2COL_Q216 pAGe: 1

ARTwORkSIze: 279.4mmx215.9mm dATe:17.02.16

87ChARTeRhOuSeSTReeT•LONdONeC1M6hJ•TeL+44(0)2075534744

ManpoweremploymentOutlookSurveyunitedStates

Q2 2016


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More than 11,000 interviews have been conducted with employers within the United States, including all 50 states, the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, to measure hiring intentions between April and June 2016. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2016 compared to the current quarter?”

Contents

unitedStatesemploymentOutlook 1Industry Sector ComparisonsRegional Comparisons Metropolitan Statistical Areas

GlobalemploymentOutlook 8

AbouttheSurvey 9uIn

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey 1


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Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

% % % % % %

Quarter 2 2015

Quarter 3 2015

Quarter 4 2015

Quarter 1 2016

Quarter 2 2016

22 4 72 2 18 16

24 4 70 2 20 16

21 6 71 2 15 18

20 6 72 2 14 17

22 4 72 2 18 16

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero

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unitedStatesemploymentOutlook

More than one in five U.S. employers surveyed – 22 percent – expect payrolls to grow in Quarter 2 2016, while 4 percent anticipate a decline in staff levels. Seventy-two percent of employers do not expect employment levels to change, and the remaining 2 percent are unsure about hiring prospects for the coming quarter.

Once the survey data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Net Employment Outlook is +16%. Hiring plans remain relatively stable compared to Quarter 1 2016 and employers report no change compared to one year ago at this time.

Net Employment Outlooks are unchanged in two of the four U.S. regions surveyed when compared with Quarter 1 2016. A decline of 2 percent is reported in the West and the Outlook for the Northeast is 1 percent weaker than in Quarter 1 2016.

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the strongest hiring prospects for Quarter 2 2016 are reported by employers surveyed in the Midwest and the South with Outlooks of +17%. Employers in the West report an Outlook of +16%, and the Northeast Outlook stands at +15%.

Quarter over quarter, employers in the Midwest, South and Northeast expect hiring to remain relatively stable, while employers in the West anticipate a slight decrease in hiring. Compared to one year ago at this time, employers in the West report a slightly weaker Outlook, while employers in the Northeast, Midwest and South anticipate a relatively stable hiring pace.

Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. In addition, percentage totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey


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Nationwide, employers in all 13 industry sectors report a positive Outlook for hiring in Quarter 2 2016, based on seasonally adjusted data: Leisure & Hospitality (+31%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+22%), Transportation & Utilities (+19%), Professional & Business Services (+18%), Construction (+16%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+14%), Financial Activities (+14%), Information (+13%), Government (+13%), Education & Health Services (+12%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+11%), Other Services (+9%) and Mining (+2%).

When the industry sector data is compared quarter over quarter, employers in the Government sector anticipate a slight increase in hiring nationwide compared to Quarter 1 2016.

IndustrySectorComparisonsHiring activity is expected to remain relatively stable nationwide in the following sectors: Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Education & Health Services, Financial Activities, Information, Leisure & Hospitality, Mining, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Other Services, Professional & Business Services and Wholesale & Retail Trade.

Employment levels are expected to decrease slightly in the Transportation & Utilities sector.

The results for the Mining sector are reported only in the national survey data to ensure statistical accuracy.

Net EmploymentOutlook Q2 2016

SeasonallyAdjusted

IncreaseIndustry Decrease No Change Don’t Know

% % % %%%

Education & Health Services

Construction

Financial Activities

Government

Information

Leisure & Hospitality

Manufacturing – Durable Goods

Manufacturing – Nondurable Goods

Mining

Other Services

Professional & Business Services

Transportation & Utilities

Wholesale & Retail Trade

15 3 80 122 12

24 4 70 202 16

17 3 79 14 141

18 3 77 2 15 13

17 3 80 0 14 13

38 4 57 1 3134

20 6 72 2 1114

19 3 76 16 142

14 10 71 5 4 2

12 2 84 2 10 9

25 5 69 1 20 18

25 4 70 1 21 19

24 5 70 1 19 22



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SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – Midwest


Government

Information




Other Services




15 2 80 133 12

29 3 67 261 19

23 4 72 191 17

15 0 85 15 170

17 2 80 1 15 13

15 5 79 1 10 6

41 5 53 1 3236

22 7 69 2 915

19 4 77 15 130

12 2 85 1 10 9

28 3 68 1 25 21

21 3 75 1 18 19

25 8 65 2 17 19

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16


No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 2009.

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RegionalComparisonsMidwest

Nearly one in four Midwest employers surveyed – 23 percent – expect employment levels to grow in Quarter 2 2016, with 4% expecting a reduction in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +19%. When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Outlook for Quarter 2 2016 is +17%, unchanged compared to Quarter 1 2016 and relatively stable compared to one year ago at this time.

Compared to Quarter 1 2016 slightly stronger hiring prospects are reported in three of the Midwest industry sectors surveyed: Construction, Government and Wholesale & Retail Trade.

Hiring is predicted to remain relatively stable by employers in the Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services sectors.

Midwest employers surveyed in four sectors report a slight decline in hiring prospects compared to Quarter 1 2016: Financial Activities, Information, Other Services and Transportation & Utilities. Moderate decreases for the same period are reported in the Durable Goods Manufacturing and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing sectors.

+19(+17)%

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.



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Northeast

In the Northeast, 21% of employers surveyed plan to increase staff levels during Quarter 2 2016 while 4% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +17%. Once seasonal variations are taken into account, employers report relatively stable hiring intentions compared to Quarter 1 2016 and to one year ago at this time.

Compared with Quarter 1 2016, employers in the Durable Goods Manufacturing sector report a slight increase in the seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 2 2016.

Hiring activity is predicted to remain relatively stable in six industry sectors: Education & Health Services, Government, Information, Leisure & Hospitality, Other Services and Professional & Business Services.

Employers expect hiring to be slightly weaker in the Construction, Financial Activities, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing and Transportation & Utilities sectors during the next three months compared to Quarter 1 2016. Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers anticipate a moderate decline for the same period.

+17(+15)%


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – Northeast


Government

Information




Other Services




13 2 82 113 11

22 7 68 153 11

21 4 73 172 15

15 2 81 13 122

11 3 83 3 8 6

14 3 83 0 11 10

38 6 55 1 2632

16 5 78 1 911

19 5 75 14 121

8 3 87 2 5 4

30 4 66 0 26 23

33 5 60 2 28 25

22 7 69 2 15 17

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16



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The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.



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South

Payrolls are expected to increase in Quarter 2 2016 by 22% of employers surveyed in the South, while 4% anticipate a decrease in headcount, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +18%. Once seasonal variations have been removed from the data, hiring is unchanged quarter over quarter and is relatively stable compared to one year ago at this time.

Quarter over quarter, hiring prospects are moderately stronger in the Nondurable Goods Manufacturing sector. Employers in three sectors report slight increases: Government, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail Trade.

Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in five sectors: Construction, Education & Health Services, Financial Activities, Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services.

Outlooks decrease slightly in both the Information sector and the Other Services sector, while employers surveyed in the Transportation & Utilities sector expect a moderate decline compared to Quarter 1 2016.

+18(+17)%


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – South


Government

Information




Other Services




16 4 78 122 12

20 4 74 162 15

22 4 73 181 17

19 3 77 16 151

17 2 78 3 15 15

19 1 80 0 18 17

38 4 56 2 3234

24 5 68 3 1619

19 3 77 16 141

11 2 84 3 9 7

23 6 69 2 17 16

23 5 70 2 18 16

23 3 73 1 20 24

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16



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The South Region comprises the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico along with the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida,

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.



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West

In the West, payroll growth is anticipated by 22% of employers surveyed with 4% expecting a decline in employment levels. The resulting Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 2 2016 stands at +18%. When seasonal variation is removed from the data, hiring prospects decrease slightly compared to Quarter 1 2016 and to one year ago at this time.

The hiring pace is expected to increase slightly in four industry sectors in Quarter 2 2016 compared to the previous quarter: Financial Activities, Government, Leisure & Hospitality and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing.

Employers anticipate relatively stable hiring activity in the Construction, Professional & Business Services and Transportation & Utilities sectors.

Hiring intentions decrease slightly for Quarter 2 2016 compared with Quarter 1 2016 in the Education & Health Services, Information, Other Services and Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors. Durable Goods Manufacturing sector employers report a moderate decrease in hiring plans quarter over quarter.

+18(+16)%


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – West


Government

Information




Other Services




14 3 80 113 13

26 3 68 233 19

22 4 72 182 16

18 4 76 14 152

27 5 66 2 22 18

17 4 78 1 13 15

33 3 63 1 2830

16 7 75 2 79

19 2 76 17 153

15 3 81 1 12 11

24 4 71 1 20 17

25 1 72 2 24 21

25 4 68 3 21 21

’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16



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The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,

Utah, Washington, Wyoming.



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Metropolitan Statistical Areas

29% Charlotte, Omaha

28% Albany, Boise City

27% Dallas, Providence

26% Phoenix, Toledo

24% Austin, San Jose, Seattle, St. Louis

Charleston, Dayton, Des Moines, El Paso, Greensboro, Lakeland, Louisville, Miami, Milwaukee, Richmond, Salt Lake City, Scranton, Spokane

23%

22% Deltona, Denver, Grand Rapids, Greenville, Pittsburgh, Provo, San Antonio, Wichita

21% Cincinnati, Little Rock, McAllen, Oxnard, San Diego, Stockton, Virginia Beach, Worcester

20% Augusta, Columbia, Fresno, San Francisco, Washington

19% Birmingham, Minneapolis, Nashville

18% Madison, Memphis, Palm Bay

17% Albuquerque, Honolulu, Houston, Jacksonville, Orlando, Raleigh, Riverside, Rochester, Sacramento, Springfield, Tulsa

Colorado Springs, Columbus, Indianapolis, Knoxville, Portland, Tampa16%

15% Cape Coral, Los Angeles, Ogden, Winston-Salem

14% Baltimore, Bridgeport, Chattanooga, Jackson, Kansas City

13% Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Harrisburg, Hartford, New Orleans, Oklahoma City

Bakersfield, Boston, Cleveland, Syracuse12%

11% New Haven, North Port

10% Atlanta

9% Allentown, New York, Philadelphia, Tucson

8% Las Vegas

7% Baton Rouge

6% Akron, Youngstown

Survey results are available for the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count.

MetropolitanStatisticalAreasFor Quarter 2 2016, all 100 of the largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States report positive Net Employment Outlooks. Additional survey results for each MSA are available at meos-press.manpowergroup.us.



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ManpowerGroup interviewed over 58,000 employers across 42 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in Quarter 2 2016. All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2016 as compared to the current quarter?”

ManpowerGroup’s second-quarter research reveals that job gains are expected in 39 of 42 countries and territories during the April-June time frame. However, despite little indication of labor market contraction, hiring intentions in most countries and territories continue to remain modest. In fact, some key labor markets, such as Germany, France and Italy, are clearly struggling to gain traction amid the current economic uncertainty. Faced with the slowdown in China and ongoing turmoil in commodity markets, most employers across the globe appear to be taking the measured approach of adding staff only when needed.

Despite some anticipated job gains, actual job growth is expected to slow by varying degrees with employers in a slim majority of countries and territories scaling back their hiring plans in both quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons. Hiring plans strengthen in only eight of 42 countries and territories when compared with the first three months of 2016 and weaken in 22. Outlooks improve in 12 countries and territories when compared with Quarter 2 2015 but decline in 23. Second-quarter hiring confidence is strongest in India, Japan, Taiwan, Colombia and Guatemala, while the weakest hiring prospects are reported in Brazil, France and Italy.

Across the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region, workforce gains are forecast in 22 of 24 countries. Hiring plans improve in five countries quarter over quarter but weaken in 11. In a year over year comparison, job gains are expected to improve in six countries and decline in 13. For the first time in the EMEA region, employers in Bulgaria report the most optimistic hiring intentions. Conversely, French employers report the weakest hiring plans, as well as the only negative forecast in EMEA.

Staffing levels are expected to grow in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories during the April-June time frame. However, second-quarter forecasts weaken in seven countries and territories when compared with the first three months of the year. Similarly, hiring plans decline by varying margins in seven countries and territories in a year over year comparison and strengthen only in Japan. For the third consecutive quarter, employers in India report the most optimistic regional and global hiring plans, while the region’s weakest hiring intentions are reported by Australian employers.

Employers in nine of 10 countries in the Americas region expect some workforce gains in the upcoming quarter. Outlooks improve in three countries and decline in four in a quarter over quarter comparison. Year over year, hiring prospects are stronger in five countries and decline in only three. Employers in Colombia, Guatemala and the United States report the region’s most optimistic second-quarter hiring plans, while for the fifth consecutive quarter employers in Brazil report an overall decline in payrolls as well as the weakest hiring plans in the region and across the globe.

Full survey results for each of the 42 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at www.manpowergroup.com/meos. The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 14 June 2016 and will detail expected labor market activity for the third quarter of 2016.

* Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Finland.

GlobalemploymentOutlook



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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 50 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 58,000 public and private employers across 42 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question:

For the Quarter 2 2016 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2016 as compared to the current quarter?”

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

AbouttheSurveyNet Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Net Employment Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated.

Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Finland. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

Additional Information AvailableFind complete survey results, including reports for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 50 states, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on our website at press.manpower.com.

About ManpowerGroupTM

ManpowerGroup® (NYSE: MAN) is the world’s workforce expert, creating innovative workforce solutions for nearly 70 years. As workforce experts, we connect more than 600,000 people to meaningful work across a wide range of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family of brands – Manpower®, Experis®, Right Management® and ManpowerGroup® Solutions – we help more than 400,000 clients in 80 countries and territories address their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to resource, manage and develop talent. In 2016, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the sixth consecutive year and one of Fortune’s Most Admired Companies, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup makes powering the world of work humanly possible: www.manpowergroup.com.


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Documents

2016 Q2 - Manpowermanpowerillinois.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/UnitedStates_Re… · 2 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey SMART JOB NO: 11010 QuARTeR 2 2016 CLIeNT: MANpOweR SuBJeCT: