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Portucel S.A. Assembleia Geral 21 de Maio de 2013 2015 Results Presentation

20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

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Page 1: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

Portucel S.A.Assembleia Geral

21 de Maio de 2013

2015 Results

Presentation

Page 2: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

Disclaimer

This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities in any jurisdiction nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract commitment or investment decision in relation thereto nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities analysed herein. No action has been made that would permit a public offering of any securities mentioned in this presentation in any jurisdiction. No offers, sales, re-sales or delivery of any securities mentioned I this presentation or distribution

of any offering material relating to any such securities may be made in or from any jurisdiction.

Any decision to subscribe for or purchase ordinary shares in any offering should be made solely on the basis of information contained in any offer document that may be published by the relevant issuer in final form in relation to

such offering and securities.

This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of Portucel, S.A. business and does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding Portucel. Accordingly, no representation, undertaking or warranty, express or

implied, is given by Portucel or any of its subsidiary undertakings, affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisors or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or

opinions contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied or any other material discussion in connection with this presentation. This presentation has been prepared by Portucel solely for information purposes. Portucel any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any other person shall not have any liability

whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss, errors or omissions howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.

Page 3: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

2

FY 2015 – Higher paper and pulp prices and strong EBITDA

• Sales turnover up by 5.6% to €1 628 million with

improvement in paper and pulp prices

• Strong EBITDA of € 390 million, with clear

improvement in margin EBITDA / Sales to 24 %

• Net favourable impact of EUR/USD exchange rate

• Capex of € 152 million

• Successful entry in the tissue business

• Start-up of large scale forest plantations in

Mozambique

• Pellets project developing as expected

• Restructuring and reduction of debt costs

• Cost reduction and efficiency programs

• High dividend yield

Page 4: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

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aved

Doc

umen

t / 3

1/01

/201

2 / 1

1:12

3

Significant turnover growth and diversification over the last years

Revenues by division 2009 vs 2015

• Since the last significant investment cycle in 2009, turnover increased by 49%, with

consolidation of paper revenues and entrance in a new line of business

830

1216

162

140

86

198

51

2009 2015

Other

Tissue

Energy

Pulp stand alone

Paper

€ 1.628 million

€ 1 .095 million

49%

Page 5: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

4

Positive price environment for pulp

• Revenues in the pulp business grew 23% YoY, due to the increase in pulp price

and EURUSD exchange rate

• Portucel average price evolved in line with market benchmark

European Market Prices Evolution

Source: FOEX

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

500

550

600

650

700

750

2012 2013 2014 2015

BHKP (USD/ton)

BHKP (EUR/ton)

EUR/ton USD/ton

Average 2015: 784 USD/ton

Average 2015: 705 €/ton

Average 2014: 746 USD/ton

Average 2014: 560 €/ton

Page 6: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

5

Group paper price evolved positively

• The industry benchmark for paper lost 0,7% YoY (828€ vs 822€/ton)

• Group average sale price evolved very positively, gaining approximately 5%

• Portucel implemented 3 price increases during 2015 (March, July and September),

with another price increase also announced for February 2016

• Group increased paper sales to USD markets outside Europe to improve paper

margin contribution:

− 1.7% increase in volume to overseas markets and 14.5% increase in value

− Presence in around 131 geographies

• Improvement in brand mix: sales of Navigator and Soporset continue to growth

Sales to other markets include Africa, Latin America, Middle East, Turkey, Asia, mainly in USD

Page 7: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

6

Resilience in Uncoated Woodfree Demand

• World demand for UWF paper has shown significant resilience over the last 3 years

• European UWF demand has been stagnant since 2012, with Cut Size paper resilient

since 2009

• Paper consumption in 2015 is estimated to have marginally decreased:

⁻ Europe: - 0.3%

⁻ US: - 0.4%*

• Capacity adjustments are expected and operating rates forecasted to improve,

namely in Europe

Page 8: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

7

EBITDA of 390 M€ : highest EBITDA in the last 5 years

• 2015 EBITDA of € 390 million, increasing 18.7%, with significant improvement in

operating margin vs 2014

Va

lue

s in

mil

lio

n E

uro

s

400385 386

351328

390

28.9%

25.9% 25.7%

22.9%

21.3%

24.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

280.0

300.0

320.0

340.0

360.0

380.0

400.0

420.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ebitda % Ebitda / Sales

Page 9: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

Ebitda2014

328,4

392,9

Pulp & Paper Prices

Wood Costs& Logistics

Personnel Costs* Other

Impacts

Ebitda Current

Business

Ebitda 2015

Tissue

Future Business

390

400,9

Ebitda Comparable

Business

+ 316+ 20,4 -29,2

- 8,0 +8.0 - 10.9+ 81,3

YoY growth in EBITDA sustained by high pulp and paper prices

• EBITDA increased + 61.6 million: very positive impact from pulp and paper

prices; cost of wood and logistics and acquired tissue business also contributing

positively

Positive impacts

Va

lue

s in

mil

lio

n E

uro

s

Negative impacts

8• Personnel costs include non recurring costs with Pension Funds , Rejuvenation programme and estimated bonus for 2015;

• Recurring personnel costs increased 0.5% YoY

Page 10: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

9

Summary financials FY 2015

Total Sales

1,628 M€

EBITDA

390 M€

EBIT

282 M€

Net Profit

196 M€

EBITDA / Sales

24% +5.6%

2015 vs 2014

+18.7% ROCE

15.7%

ROE

14.7%

Net Debt

654.5M€

+29.6%

+8.4%

+2.7 pp

+3.3 pp

+2.3 pp

Net Debt / EBITDA

1.7 X

+381 Mln€

+0.8 X

• Improvement in EBITDA / Sales margin

• Very strong ROCE 15.7% (vs. 12.4%)

Page 11: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

10

Quarterly Financials 2015

389406 409

424

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Turnover (Mln€)

81103 110

96

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

EBITDA (Mln€)

42

59

4255

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Net Earnings (Mln€)

21%25% 27%

23%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

EBITDA / Sales (%)

12%

17% 17% 16%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ROCE (%)

11%

17%

13%

18%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

ROE (%)

• Q4 2015: highest quarter turnover

• Q4 EBITDA affected by specific items: pension funds and anti-dumping taxes

Page 12: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

11

Good operating performance but limited free cash flow

• In spite of good operating performance, free cash flow was impacted by high level

of capex and increase in working capital, namely due to variation in inventories

and anti-dumping deposit

Cash

Flow

CAPEX

excluding

tissue

Change in

inventoriesDeposit of

Anti-dumping

Change in other

assets/

liabilities

Free Cash

Flow

304

- 116

- 17

-11

-1

81

- 77

AMS

acquisition

+ Capex

Tissue

Va

lue

s in

mil

lio

n E

uro

s

Maintenance

25 M€

Development

91 M€

Page 13: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

12

Net debt increased as expected during 2015

686

463

363 307274

654

1.6

1.10.9

0.9 0.8

1.7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Debt Net Debt / Ebitda

• Net debt increased mainly due to dividend payment and capital expenditure

• Net debt / Ebitda still below industry average

Va

lue

s in

mil

lio

n E

uro

s

Page 14: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

13

New credit facilities and extension of maturity reduce cost of debt

• Redemption of the € 350,000,000 53/8 % 2020 Senior Secured Notes in the amount of

200 M€

• New bond issue in the amount of 200 M€ with maturity in 2023 with 1.9% spread

• Renegotiation and new Commercial Paper facilities in a global amount of € 350

million, of which € 125 million unused on 31/12/2015

Maturity profile

Va

lue

s in

mil

lio

n E

uro

s

4.2%

2.5%

Before renegotiation Current

Cost of Debt

41 24 24 1414 40

150200

225

125

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2024

Bonds

Bank loans Used Commercial Paper on 31/12/2015

Unused Commercial Paper

Page 15: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

14

Increase efficiency and cost reduction iniciatives

M2 Project – increase operating efficiency

� Launched in 2014 to promote the sustainable practices to increase productivity and reduction in

operating costs

� During 2015, 96 iniciatives were developed, within 26 areas, namely in the industrial areas

� Estimated impact of these iniciatives in EBITDA in 2015 is approximately 13 M€

Lean Manufacturing Program

� Adoption of methods for pinpointing and eliminating waste as an integral part of the Group's

corporate identity

� Long term aim : regroup organization around a more collaborative, multifunctional and multi-level

culture, in which all employees take an active role in optimising flows and value added.

Page 16: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

15

Portucel Shares: maintaining a high total shareholder return

Ex-dividend date (08/05/2015)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

31

-12

-20

14

14

-01

-20

15

28

-01

-20

15

11

-02

-20

15

25

-02

-20

15

11

-03

-20

15

25

-03

-20

15

08

-04

-20

15

22

-04

-20

15

06

-05

-20

15

20

-05

-20

15

03

-06

-20

15

17

-06

-20

15

01

-07

-20

15

15

-07

-20

15

29

-07

-20

15

12

-08

-20

15

26

-08

-20

15

09

-09

-20

15

23

-09

-20

15

07

-10

-20

15

21

-10

-20

15

04

-11

-20

15

18

-11

-20

15

02

-12

-20

15

16

-12

-20

15

30

-12

-20

15

Portucel vs. European Indexes in 2015

(31-12-2014 = 100)

Portucel PSI20 IBEX 35 CAC 40 FTSE100

Ex-dividend date 08/05/2015

� 5-year Total Shareholder Return of 31.4% per year (203.3% total);

� Market cap on Dec-2015: € 2.8 bln

Portucel

Shares *% Change

2015 +16,6%

Ex-dividend dates 18/12/201523/12/2015

*Updated 31/12/2015; closing price of 3,596 €/share; source : Reuters

Page 17: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

16*Qualified holdings; ** excluding Semapa ´s stake ; rest of the world < 1%

Portugal

38%

Norway

21%

USA 18%

UK 12%

Germany

4%

Rest of

Europe 7%

Portucel Shares in 2015 – Shareholder diversification

17.6% 20.5%

3.3%4.8%

6.6%

6.6%

75.9%64.8%

Semapa

Own shares

BPI Pension

Fund

Norges

Bank

Free Float

Shareholders after

the offer *

Shareholders before

the offer *

� More diversified shareholder base since the exchange offer and reduction in participation by

Semapa (which ocurred in July 2015)

Geographic Distribution of Current

Shareholders**Shareholder Structure

Page 18: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

17

Capex during 2015: 152 M€

• Pulp expansion at Cacia concluded, with

start-up of new capacity at the end of June

(€ 42 million)

• General maintenance (€ 25 million)

• Construction of plant nursery in

Mozambique, with production capacity of

12 million plants

• Main equipment ordered and start-up of

civil works

• Increase in tissue capacity at Vila Velha de

Rodão almost concluded – expansion

from 30.000 to 60.000 tons

Current business

Future business

Pulp and paper:

67 M€

Tissue:

36 M€

Mozambique:

18 M€

Colombo:

€ 32 M€

Page 19: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

18

Future business - Forest plantations in Mozambique accelerate growth

• Inauguration of nursery plant in Luá, with

production capacity of 6 million plants;

expansion of capacity of up to 12 million plants

concluded, ramp-up until end of Q1 2016

• Additional 2 satellite nurseries being

constructed with capacity of 2 millions plants

each per year

• Team expansion: 240 full time workers and

outsourcing of approximately 2 400 seasonal

local workers

• Global increase in planted areas in Zambézia

and Manica, currently totalling approximately

5.5 thousand ha

• Ongoing negotiation with potential equity

partners

Page 20: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

19

Future Business – Pellet mill construction underway

• Set up of the project team in Greenwood,

South Carolina, with expatriate and local staff,

totalling currently 27 workers

• Estimated 70 workers for start-up of

operations

• Revised estimated capacity of 500.000 tons

and final capex of USD 116.5 M

• Construction ending in April 2016 and start-up

estimated in Q3 2016

• Long term take or pay contract for 40% of

production

• Spot market for pellets pressured due to

current oil market situation

Page 21: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

20

Tissue Business - Investment in greenfield project in tissue

• Conclusion of tissue expansion capacity at Vila Velha de Rodão (AMS) with

additionnal 30.000 tons of jumbo reels

• Portucel approved the construction of an integrated tissue paper machine and 5

converting lines

• Total estimated capex of € 120 million

• Final decision pending approval of financial and taxes incentives (June 2016)

• After conclusion, Portucel global tissue capacity will total 130.000 tons per year, of

jumbo reels and of converting capacity

Page 22: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

21

Outlook for 2016

• Portucel presented strong operating results in 2015 and continues to work on its

development and diversification projects, while also improving its efficiency

• Economic environment for 2016 will present additional challenges and exchange rates

will continue to be crucial for producers profitability

• Pulp prices have registered some erosion in the past weeks and could be negatively

impacted by turmoil in commodities and Asian markets

• Paper market could benefit from recent capacity reduction in Europe

• US anti-dumping measures have created some instability in different geographies,

with more pressure from Asian producers in Europe and Latin America

Page 23: 20160203 - Apresentação de resultados 2015

Portucel S.A.Assembleia Geral

21 de Maio de 2013

The end