2017 Congressional Update

Presented by:Donald R. Cravins, Jr

SVP for Policy/ED Washington Bureaudcravins@nul.org

@dcravins

Congressional Leadership

of the

115th Congress

2

Senate Majority Leadership

1. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)Position: Senate Majority Leader

2. John Cornyn (R-TX)Position: Senate Majority Whip

3. John Thune (R-S.D.) Position: Senate Republican Conference Chairman 4. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.)

Position: Senate Republican Policy Committee Chairman

5. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) Position: Senate Republican Conference vice chairman

6. Cory Gardner (R-CO)Position: National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman

3

Senate Majority Leadership

1. Charles “Chuck” Schumer (D-NY)Position: Senate Minority Leader

2. Dick Durbin (D-IL)Position: Senate Democratic Whip

3. Patty Murray (D-WA)Position: Assistant Democratic Leader

4. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)Position: Chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee

9 Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)Position: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman

5. Elizabeth Warren(D-MA)Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference

6. Mark Warner (D-VA)Position: Vice Chair of the Democratic Conference

7. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)Position: Chair of Steering Committee

8. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)Position: Chair of Outreach

Senate Majority Leadership

4

Senate Minority Leadership

House Majority Leadership

1. Paul Ryan(WI-1)Position: Speaker of the House

2. Kevin McCarthy (CA-23)Position: House Majority Leader

3. Steve Scalise (LA-1 )Position: House Republican Whip

4. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) Position: Republican Conference Vice Chair

6. Steve Stivers (OH-15)Position: National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman

5. Luke Messer (IN-6)Position: Republican Policy Committee Chairman

5

House Majority Leadership

REPUBLICAN FACTIONS

Opposing factions in the Republican Party threaten to impede its ability to form a majority in the House

If Dems maintain unity, GOP can only lose 22 votes

May 30, 2017 | Daniel Stublen

Republicans 239

Tuesday Group ~52

Freedom Caucus ~30

Democrats 193

Vacancies 3

Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.

Whip stats (four vacancies)• Republicans hold a 46-seat lead• A majority requires 217 votes (if all members cast a ballot)

More conservative caucuses

Freedom Caucus (~30 members)• Farthest-right group of Republicans• Chair, Mark Meadows (R-NC11)

House Liberty Caucus (~35 members)• Libertarian wing of the Republican party• Chair, Justin Amash (R-MI03)

Republican Study Committee (~170 members)• Strong conservatives, limited spending and traditional values• Chair, Mark Walker (R-NC06)

Moderate caucuses

Tuesday Group (~50 members)• Moderate fiscal conservatism and more socially liberal• Co-chairs, Charlie Dent (R-PA15), Elise Stefanik (R-NY21)

• Tom MacArthur (R-NJ03) recently resigned as co-chair after the contentious AHCA vote

Republican Main Street Partnership (65 representatives, 4 senators)• More centrist, attempts to form bipartisan initiatives• Chair, Amory “Amo” Houghton (R-NY29, retired)

Freedom Caucus Moderate Republicans Tuesday Group

VacanciesMajority line

1. Nancy Pelosi (CA-12)Position: House Democratic Leader

2. Steny Hoyer (MD-5)Position: House Democratic Whip

3. James Clyburn (SC-6) Position: Assistant Democratic Leader

4. Joseph Crowley (NY-14) Position: House Democratic Caucus Chairman

House Majority Leadership

7

House Minority Leadership

Congressional Black Caucus Leadership

1. Cedric Richmond (LA-2)Position: Chairman

2. Andre Carson (IN-7)Position: Vice Chairman

3. Karen Bass (CA- 37)Position: Vice Chairman

4. Brenda Lawrence (MI -14)Position: Secretary

5. Gwen Moore (WI-4)Position: Whip

8

Congressional Black Caucus Leadership

Freedom CaucusProgressive Caucus

HOUSE CAUCUSES

Moderates in the House form a strong majority over each party’s farthest wings

House makeup by caucus membership

June 5, 2017 | Daniel Stublen

House Republican Conference 239

Freedom Caucus 30*

Tuesday Group 50*

Republican Study Committee 170*

Republican Main Street Partnership 65*

House Democratic Caucus 193

Blue Dog Coalition 17

New Democrat Coalition 61

Progressive Caucus 70

Vacancies 3

*Estimated caucus size; rosters have not been finalized and published for the 115th Congress. The House Freedom Caucus does not publish its member list.Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.

Moderate RepublicansModerate Democrats

Tuesday GroupBlue Dog Coalition

Vacancies

70

106

1750

30

159Whip stats • Republicans hold a 46-seat lead• A majority requires 217 votes (if all

members cast a ballot)• If Republicans lose all Freedom Caucus

votes, they require 7 centrist Democratic votes to form a majority

2018 Congressional Elections

Landscape

10

Presidential Approval Ratings

45%43%

41% 40%42% 43% 42%

37%

40%

43%40%

40%

30%

40%

50%

60%

President Trump’s Approval Ratings, Jan. 20th - present

Gallup: June 5

-11-2 -8

2

-6

-54

-18 -26

-54

-8

-63

-175

-150

-125

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

0

1946 1954 1982 20021994

SENATE HOUSE SENATE HOUSE HOUSE SENATE HOUSESENATE

Gain or loss for president’s party in first midterm of presidency:

61% Approve

33% Approve 42% Approve

63% Approve

48% Approve

HOUSE

Gallup

SENATE HOUSE

45% Approve

2010

SENATE

Since the Civil War, President’s party has lost seats in 36 of 39 midterms -losing an average of 33 seats

Since 1914, President’s party has lost Senate seats in 20 out of 25 midterm elections

Presidential Approval Ratings

2016 Presidential Election

12

7

556

3

4

6

11

3

9

5

38

3

3

5

6

7

6

10

6

10

8

10

20

16

11 18

1696

118

29

9

15

135

20

29

4

3

4

MA 12

RI 4

CT 7

NJ 15

DE 3

MD 10

DC 3

VT 3

NH 4

Clinton: 232 EVs (States) Trump: 306 EVs (States)

1

Clinton beat Trump by nearly 7M votes in CA, MA & NY (65-35% margin). In the other

47 states (plus DC), Trump received 4M more votes (winning 52% - 48%).

County Breakdown

1519 1526

674 583

875

693468

15821587

2439 2536

2238

2420

2600

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

29

43

7378

70

69

88 86 88

71

57

27 2230

31

12 14 120

25

50

75

100

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

All Counties 100 Largest Counties

8th consecutive Presidential Election within 10 points

Uncompetitive CountiesCounties where presidential candidates won the two-party popular vote by more than 20 percentage points:

Cook Political Report

In 1992, 1,096 counties were decided by single-digit margins. In 2016, only 303

counties had close margins.

Along the Acela Corridor and Pacific Coast, Democrats hold a 98-33 House Seat

advantage over Republicans. In the other 40 states, Republicans hold 208 seats to

Democrats’ 96.

In these same 40 states, Donald Trump won 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 80.

Landslides EverywhereShare of U.S. voters living in counties where either major-party candidate won by a margin of:

Cook Political Report

The number of “extreme landslide” counties – those in which one presidential candidate won by more than 50 percentage points –

rose from 93 in 1992 to 1,196 in 2016

Competitive Seats

Only 33 competitive House seats in 2016 –a greater than 80 percent drop

Single Party Representation

Data provided by Smart Politics

The last time Congress had 15 states represented by only one political party in

both chambers was 1957

23 12

405

35

405

34 49

352

83

352

Partisan Divide

Republicans in Clinton districts

Democrats in Trump districts

111th Congress: 2009 115th Congress: 2017

Districts split between Congressional representation and presidential preference:

Republicans in Obama districts

Democrats in McCain districts

Only 1 Dem (Collin Peterson) remains

from a McCain dist.

First time in 100+ years that percentage of split districts has been in single digits in

consecutive elections

16%

29%

38%41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1994 2004 2014 2016

17%21%

43% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1994 2004 2014 2016

Pew Research Center | 2016

55%58%

View the opposing party “very unfavorably” & as a “threat to the nation’s well being”:

Partisan Politics

41% of Dems view Republican policies as a threat. More than 1/2 of Dems (55%) say

the Republican Party makes them “afraid.”

45% of Republicans view Dem policies as a threat. 58% of Republicans have a very unfavorable impression of the Dem Party.

Party Makeup of the 115th Congress

21

4652

Senate

Independents 2

DemocratsGained2 Seats

Composition of 115th Congress

Presidential/Senate Vote

Daily Kos Elections

Every state with a 2016 Senate race voted for the same party in both the Senate and

presidential contest – a first ever

2018 Senate Map

25 Democrats* 9 Republicans

WA

CANV

AZ

MT

MO

PAIN

NY

HI

WI

OH

FL

MI

MN

UT

WY

TX

TN

MS

NE

NM

WVVA

MAVT*

CT

MD

DE

ME*

RI

NJ

ND

3.9 20.5

1.0 35.8

15.5 19.1

12.8 1.2

5.5 18.9

5.6 0.8

5.2 8.1

8.9 0.7

Most Democratic seats in 50 years

19.9 0.3

AL24 41.7

MT

MO

INWV

ND

Trump States: Margin over 10%

Trump States: Margin under 10%

PA

WI

OH

FL

MI

Clinton State

NV

194241

House

Democrats gained net +61/3 House Dems come from 3 states:

California, Massachusetts & New York

32 Seats 42 Seats

10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs 10 Highly Vulnerable MOCs

2 Vulnerable MOCs 11 Vulnerable MOCs

15 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs 12 Potentially Vulnerable MOCs

5 Open Seats 8 Open Seats

2018 Landscape: House

25

10337

11

Likely RepublicanLean RepublicanToss upLean DemocratLikely Democrat

Six 2018 House races

are already considered ‘toss ups’

Crist (FL-13)Schneider (IL-10)

Bustos (IL-17)Loebsack (IA-2)

Peterson (MN-7)Kuster (NH-2)Suozzi (NY-3)

Maloney (NY-18)Schrader (OR-5)

Cartwright (PA-17)Kind (WI-3)

O’Halleran (AZ-1)Bera (CA-7)

Carbajal (CA-24)Murphy (FL-7)Nolan (MN-8)Kihuen (NV-40

Gottheimer (NJ-5)

Issa (CA-49)Price (GA-6)

Comstock (VA-10)Shea-Porter (NH-1)

Rosen (NV-3)Walz (MN-1)*

Denham (CA-10)Knight (CA-25)Coffman (CO-6)Curbelo (FL-26)

Blum (IA-1)Lewis (MN-2)Bacon (NE-2)Faso (NY-19)

Fitzpatrick (PA-8)Hurd (TX-23)

McSally (AZ-2)Valadao (CA-21)Royce (CA-39)

Walters (CA-45)Rohrbacher (CA-48)Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27)

Roskam (IL-60Bost (IL-12)Young (IA-3)Yoder (KS-3)

Poliquin (ME-2)Trott (MI-11)

Paulsen (MN-3)

Zinke (MT-AL)Lance (NJ-7)

Frelinghuysen (NJ-11)

Tenney (NY-22)Katko (NY-24)

Renacci (OH-16)*Costello (PA-6)Meehan (PA-7)

Smucker (PA-16)Culberson (TX-7)Sessions (TX-32)Reichert (WA-8)

Circled districts have special elections in 2017;Special elections not listed:• KS-4• CA-34• SC-5

*Not seeking reelectionDemocrats need to pick up 24 seats to win the House

Excludes all seats marked as ‘Solid Democrat’ or ‘Solid Republican’

Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to win the House.

Cook Political Report

Special Elections

CA

MT

KS

GA

SC

General Election: May 25Greg Gianforte elected

General Election: June 6Jimmy Gomez elected

General Election: June 20Dem Jon Ossoff 48.1%

General Election: June 20Xavier Becerra

Mike Pompeo -CIA

General Election: April 11Ron Estes elected 52.5%

Ryan Zinke - Interior

Tom Price - Health

Mick Mulvaney - OMB

How well the president’s party’s candidate does in the special election depends on the president’s popularity at the moment the

election was held.

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