2018 Mitigation Potential Analysis Presentation to the NCCC

7 November 2018

Content

• Background and Introduction

• MPA Objective

• MPA 2014

• MPA Update

• Way Forward

Background and Introduction

• The NCCRP calls for the defining of desired sectoral mitigation contributions and the defining of “Carbon Budgets for significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sectors and/or sub-sectors of the economy. This should be informed by:

o an in-depth assessment of the mitigation potential,

o best available mitigation options,

o science, evidence and

o full assessment of the costs and benefits”

• The 1ST MPA was done in 2013- 2014 and approved by parliament in 2014

Background and Introduction, cont.…

• MPA main objectives:

1) Project national greenhouse gas emissions into the future

2) Identify and analyse mitigation opportunities

3) Assess the socio-economic and environmental impacts of the identified mitigation options

Key input documents for the MPA 2014

Sectoral Plans,

IRP for power

sector

GHG

Inventory

2010

MPA

Economic forecast

Uptake rates

directly from

industry

Projecting GHG emissions•Reference Case: 2014 MPA

• Assumes no mitigation: “Without Measures” (WOM)

• “With Existing Measures” (WEM)

• Accounts for the impacts of existing policy (e.g. IRP 2010) and early mitigation measures by industry

• 2000-2050

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

Ab

ate

d (

kt C

O2e

)

Tho

usa

nd

s

WOM WEM WAM-100%

Mitigation Opportunitiesr sector

Sector Opportunities

Energy 45

Industry 95

Transport 18

Waste 8

AFOLU 6

Total 172

Top 20 – Balanced Weighting: 2014 MPA

Ranking Mitigation measures Key Sector (Subsector)

1 Energy efficient appliances Industry (Residential)

2 Rail - improved efficiency – Electric

Multiple Units

Transport (Rail)

3 Efficient Lighting – FLs Industry (Residential)

4 HVAC: with heat recovery - new

buildings

Industry (Commercial/ institutional)

5 Solar water heating Industry (Residential)

6 Passive building/improved thermal

design - new buildings

Industry (Commercial/ institutional)

7 Urban tree planting AFOLU

8 Efficient Lighting Industry (Commercial/ institutional)

9 Efficient Lighting - LEDs Industry (Residential)

10 Energy efficient appliances Industry (Commercial/ institutional)

Ranking Mitigation measures Key Sector (Subsector)

11 HVAC: variable speed drives - new buildings Industry (Commercial/ institutional)

12 HVAC: variable speed drives - existing buildings Industry (Commercial/ institutional)

13 Road - shifting freight from road to rail Transport (Road)

14 Process, demand & energy management system Energy (Coal Mining)

15 Optimise existing electric motor systems (controls

and variable speed drives)

Energy (Coal Mining)

16 Energy efficient lighting Energy (Coal Mining)

17 Improved Insulation - New Buildings Industry (Residential)

18 Rural tree planting (thickets) AFOLU

19 Geyser Blankets Industry (Residential)

20 Passive building/improved thermal design - new

buildings

Industry (Residential)

MPA 2014 Shortcomings 1 Shortcomings • It did not cover all the sectors:

Industry: limestone production and dolomite, soda ashproduction and use, asphalt roofing, road paving withAsphalt, glass production PF6 used in aluminium andmagnesium, food and drink industries, production ofHFCs, PFCs and SF6, an consumption of HFCs, PFCs andSF6, Transport: maritime transport associated with inlandand coastal navigation as well as shipping; Waste(industrial waste); these will however depend on theavailability of data;

MPA 2014 Shortcomings

• It was not done according to IPPC sectors

• The modelling was mainly done on Excel which makes it difficult to follow

• Number of errors were identified in the Excel model

A Decision was taken to develop a user-friendly model (Lumina Analytica)

2018 MPA Update

MPA 2014 to MPA 2018

From: Excel model

To: Lumina Analytica

Changes: Overall assumptions

• Populationo Income category split: updated to include middle income

and linked to GDP growth

• Emission factors o Corrected to be consistent across the modelo Aligned with the Technical Reporting Guidelines

• Exchange rateso Original MPA applied 2010 exchanges to all costso Updated version includes historic exchange rates from

2000 – 2015

Changes: Overall assumptions

• Discount Rate

o The original MPA uses a discount rate of 11.3%.

o The update include a choice of discount rate of 1%, 3%, 5%, 8.2% as well as 11.3%

• General Changes Made *But not yet reflected in the results

o Transport

o Residential

o Waste

o AFOLU *

o Electricity model (ongoing) *

Changes in Methodologies

MPA 2014

• GHG emission projectionstied to forecasted economicgrowth (moderate growth to2050 = 4.2%)

• IRP used as the basis forelectricity demand

-

MPA UPDATE 2018 • Realistic growth projections

per subsector: For somesectors, using GDPprojections to projectproduction output isnonsensical (Similar approachadopted for the Pathwaysproject)

• Production across sectors arelinked within the model: Forexample Coal demand forelectricity generation is linkedto coal mining output.

MPA 2014

• Sector categorisation

o Energy, Transport, Waste,Industry & Waste

-

MPA UPDATE 2018

• Aligned to the IPCCcategorisationo Energy, Industry Processes

and Product Use, Waste &AFOLU

Changes in Methodologies

Changes in Methodologies Road Transport:

• The 2014 MPA used the Ricardo-AEA’s SULTAN modelwhich was based on the UK data, they could not sharethis with us (IP).

• The transport sector was built from scratch, this is basedon a vehicle parc model developed by the ERC inpartnership with SANEDI

• Both models require some adjusting to ensure theywork together

• Still to be linked with the power sector to includeelectricity use from electric vehicles

Projecting GHG emissions•Reference Case: 2018 MPA

• Assumes no mitigation: “Without Measures” (WOM)

• 2000-2050

• “With Existing Measures” (WEM)

• Accounts for the impacts of existing policy (e.g. IRP 2010) and early mitigation measures by industry

0100200300400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

20

18

MPA

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

Pro

ject

ed

(k

t C

O2e

)

WOM WEM 100% WAM

Old Transport MACC (Road): 2050

NEW Transport MACC (Road): 2050

NEW Transport MACC (Road): 2050

Residential

• Updated population, electrification and income category split (including middle income)

• The reference case has been updated with SACC 2050 and SATIM data

• Refrigeration has been added as an end-use

Old Residential MACC (Electricity) 2050

NEW Residential MACC (Electricity) 2050

Residential MACC (Electricity) 2050.. A Closer Look

Waste

• Population and urbanisation projections have been updated

• Waste per capita updated – It is aligned to the Pathways model

2014 Solid Waste MACC 2050

NEW Solid Waste MACC 2050

Waste.. A closer look

AFOLU sector

• Updated according to the Carbon Sinks Assessment– Improved baseline data

– New mitigation measures

Work in progress

Electricity sector

• IRP no longer used as a basis for the electricitysector, however costs are aligned to the draft IRP2016 this will be update to 2018 IRP

• This is a work in progress

– We are collaborating with the IRP modelers to assess for system adequacy for the power sector

2018 MPA MODEL UPDATE AND RESULTS

Results:

• Results can be viewed in many ways:

– At 5 year intervals: 2020 25, 30… 50

– By subsector, sector, IPCC Category

– By measure type: e.g. energy efficiency, fuel

Projected Emissions Scenarios

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205020

18

MPA

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

Pro

ject

ed

(kt

CO

2e

)

PPD-Lower PPD WOM WEM 100% WAM

Note: Values not final

Abatement potential per sector

Emissions Abatement Potential

kt CO2eq

Year 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy 17 740 43 099 70 723 105 900

Industry Processes and Product Use 698 4 794 6 789 8 414

Waste 16 930 21 828 26 411 30 110

AFOLU 9 872 9 872 4 668 3 924

Total 45 240 79 593 108 591 148 348

Comparison of 2014 & 2018 Updated MPA

Potential for abatement

Results: MACC

What are the options for the Residential Sector in 2020 ?

What are the options for the Pulp and Paper industry in 2050

In 2030 what is possible in the primary Aluminium Sector?

2030 National MACC: Top 20

E-OE: Improved heat systems

E-OE: VSDs

E-OE: EE utility systems

E-OE: Increase onsite gas-fired power generation - using internal combustion engines

E-OE: WHR power generation

E-EH: Biogas

I-Co: Efficient Lighting

I-R: Geyser Blankets

I-Co: Energy efficient appliances

I-R: Improved Insulation - New Buildings

I-R: Improved Insulation - Existing Buildings

E-EH: Wave energy

I-Co: HVAC: Variable speed drives - New Buildings

I-Co: HVAC: Variable speed drives - Existing Buildings

I-C: VSDs

I-C: EE utility systems

E-CM: Process, demand & EMS

I-MQ: Process, demand & EMS

2050 National MACC: Top 20

E-OE: Improved heat systemsE-OE: VSDsE-OE: EE utility systemsE-OE: Increase onsite gas-fired power generation - using internal combustion enginesE-OE: WHR power generationI-P: CHPT-A: BiofuelsI-Co: Efficient LightingI-C: CHPI-Co: Energy efficient appliancesI-Co: HVAC: Variable speed drives - New BuildingsI-Co: HVAC: Variable speed drives - Existing BuildingsI-Co: HVAC: Central air conditioners - New BuildingsI-Co: Passive building/improved thermal design - New BuildingsI-Co: HVAC: with heat recovery - New BuildingsE-EH: BiogasI-R: Geyser BlanketsT-R: Alternative fuels - Petrol HEV

2020 MACC: IPPU

2050 MACC: IPPU

Results: MCDA

Multi Criteria Analysis• Net Benefit estimate that considers:

Criteria Sub-criteria Type of scoring Discrete scoring range

Cost NPV of costs incurred per CO2eq mitigated

Continuous N/A

Economic impact GVA impact per CO2eq mitigated

Continuous N/A

Social impact Job creation per ktCO2eq mitigated

Continuous N/A

Non-monetary social impact

Discrete -1 to 3

Nature of jobs created Continuous N/A

Non-GHG environmental impact

Water Discrete -3 to 1

Land Discrete -2 to 2

Waste Discrete -3 to 1

Implementability Technical implementability

Discrete 1 to 5

Institutional implementability

Discrete -1 to 3

MCDA

Able to weight the points by emphasizing:a. Balanced weightingb. Cost and implementabilityc. Social and non-GHG environmental

Costs and implement ability

Social and non-GHG env

MCDA: Transport

MCDA: Coal Mining and Handling

MCDA: Petroleum Refining

MCDA: Waste

Challenges • Lack of data remains an issues :

– Costs : capital , O&M

– Industry limestone production and dolomite, soda ashproduction and use, asphalt roofing, road paving with Asphalt,glass production PF6 used in aluminium and magnesium, foodand drink industries, production of HFCs, PFCs and SF6, anconsumption of HFCs, PFCs and SF6, Transport: maritimetransport associated with inland and coastal navigation as wellas shipping; Waste (industrial waste); these will howeverdepend on the availability of data;

• Building Internal Capacity

Future modifications will consider :

Input assumptions : Relevant official governmental sources, stakeholder inputs

Activity data: GHG inventory and direct from industry, research, government entity

Obtaining costs and net benefit information for new sectors

Modelling methodology: external model reviewers, internal studies

NEXT STEPS

• Finalise the power sector model & integrate with other sectors

• Stakeholder engagement (end Jan /beginning of February)

• Final MPA digital model ( March 2019)

MPA Future

Management and Maintenance

Management and analysis is in-house

Constant minor updates

Major formal update every other year

About the Lumina Analytica model

AnalyticaAnalytica models are simple and provide clarity and organisation to large spreadsheets.

Benefits of Analytica over Excel

• Better suited for multiple dimension spreadsheets/models

• Easier to use common assumptions – updates across model components– E.g. emission factors, exchange rates

• More difficult to make mistakes (particularly around cell references)– Analytica has a number of ways to preventing formula

errors

• Visual representation of your model• Very good annotation functions

MPA Process

The Model: Dashboard

Inside The Model: Residential

Inside the Model: Residential

Reference information

Inside the Model: Residential

• WAM calculations

Inside the model: Residential

• MACC tool

Inside the model: Residential

• SAM /MCDA inputs

Inside the model: Residential

• Socio-Economic Inputs

Inside the model: Residential

• Socio-Economic Inputs