2019 Fall Enrollment Update

Sean Tierney, Associate Commissioner for Policy and Research

October 10, 2019

Overview

Big Picture: What are postsecondary enrollment trends in Indiana?

Context: How does enrollment relate to Indiana’s population and the economy?

Enrollment Trends

Fall Census

• The Fall Census tells us the total number of students at each public institution

• Later in the year, we collect more detailed information

– This lets us identify individuals and follow more nuanced trends

Total Fall Enrollment (Headcount)

In Fall 2019…

256,928 degree-seeking students (down 1.4%)

o216,446 undergraduates (down 1.7%)

By Sector:o192,579 at 4-year publics ( down 1.0%)

o 152,097 undergraduates (down 1.3%)

o64,349 at 2-year publics (down 2.5%)

Short-Term Context…

-9%

-25%

-2%

5 Year Change

282,472

256,928

196,536 192,579

85,936

64,349

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Fall 2014 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 Fall 2017 Fall 2018 Fall 2019

All Publics

Public 4 Year

Public 2 Year

…Longer-Term Context

-9%

-25%

-2%

5 Year Change

260,554

314,866

256,928

189,513203,941

192,579

71,041

110,925

64,349

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Fall2017

Fall2018

Fall2019

All Publics

Public 4 Year

Public 2 Year

12 Year Change

-1%

+2%

-9%

July Unemployment & Fall Enrollment

4.5% 3.4%

10.6%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Fall2017

Fall2018

Fall2019

All Publics

Public 4 Year

Public 2 Year

IN Unemployment Rate

July Unemployment & Fall Enrollment (Scaled to 2019 Baseline)

3.4

4.4

5.4

6.4

7.4

8.4

9.4

10.4

11.4

64,349

69,349

74,349

79,349

84,349

89,349

94,349

99,349

104,349

109,349

114,349

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Fall2017

Fall2018

Fall2019

IndianaPublic Two-YearEnrollment

IndianaJuly UnemploymentRate

National Trend

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Fall1990

Fall1991

Fall1992

Fall1993

Fall1994

Fall1995

Fall1996

Fall1997

Fall1998

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Fall2010

Fall2011

Fall2012

Fall2013

Fall2014

Fall2015

Fall2016

Fall2017

Source: U.S. Department of Education Data Digest; U.S. ED “After the Post-9/11 GI Bill”

Great Recession Begins

First Millennials Reach College Age

13.8 M

19.8 M21.0 M

1990 Recession Begins

2001 Recession Begins

Post 9/11 GI Bill goes into effect; veteran enrollment increases faster than overall enrollment

Fall Enrollment (Headcount)by FT/PT Status

At 2-year PublicsAt 4-year Publics

TREND:1-yr change in full-time: - 0.3 % pts5-yr change in full-time: + 1.0 % pts

TREND:1-yr change in full-time: + 1.1 % pts5-yr change in full-time: - 1.9 % pts

Full-Time 80%

Part-Time20% Full-Time

38%

Part-Time 62%

Fall Enrollment (Headcount) by Residency Status

At 2-year PublicsAt 4-year Publics

TREND:1-yr change in resident: -0.7 % pts5-yr change in resident: - 4.6 % pts

TREND:1-yr change in resident: +0.8 % pts5-yr change in resident: - 0.4 % pts

Resident, 66%

Non-Resident, 33%

Non-Resident Reciprocity,

1%

Resident, 93.6%

Non-Resident, 4.7% Non-Resident

(Reciprocity), 1.7%

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Purdue Polytechnic

IU Kokomo

IU East

IU Northwest

IU Southeast

IU South Bend

Vincennes University

PFW

USI

Purdue Northwest

ISU

Ball State

IUPUI

IU Bloomington

Purdue West Lafayette

Ivy Tech

Non-Resident Resident

Degree-Seeking Enrollment by Institution

58,971

44,079

42,760

29,59821,152

11,476

8,400

8,552

7,245

5,378

4,910

4,672

3,633

3,271

2,910

Total Fall Enrollment by System/Campus

IU System 90,754

PU System 60,645

Ivy Tech 58,971

BSU 21,152

ISU 11,476

USI 8,552

VU 5,378

921

Change in Headcount

1 YR CHANGE 5 YR CHANGE(Fall 2018-19) (Fall 2014-19)

-35.6%

-27.5%

-24.0%

-23.7%

-23.6%

-20.1%

-17.0%

-9.6%

-9.0%

-6.6%

-3.4%

-2.5%

-1.4%

1.5%

1.9%

5.4%

15.1%

Vincennes University

Purdue Northwest

Ivy Tech

PFW

IU Northwest

IU Southeast

IU South Bend

Indiana State University

Statewide

USI

IUPUI

Purdue Polytechnic

IU East

IU Kokomo

IU Bloomington

Ball State

Purdue West Lafayette

-13.3%

-9.7%

-7.6%

-6.6%

-6.3%

-5.5%

-3.4%

-3.1%

-3.0%

-1.4%

-1.4%

-0.4%

-0.4%

0.4%

0.4%

2.3%

2.6%

Vincennes University

Purdue Polytechnic

Purdue Northwest

Indiana State University

PFW

IU Southeast

IU South Bend

USI

IU Northwest

Ivy Tech

Statewide

IU Bloomington

IUPUI

Ball State

IU Kokomo

IU East

Purdue West Lafayette

68,358

195,242

86,305

212,461

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Public 2 Year Public 4 Year

Fall Census Fiscal Year

Fall Census As Fiscal Year Predictor

Degree Seeking Students: Fall 2017 and FY 2018

FY/Fall Ratio: 1.3

FY/Fall Ratio: 1.1