2 0 2 0 P L AT I N U M & PA L L A D I U M

M A R K E T O U T L O O K

Copyright CPM Group LLC 2020.

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Page 1 2020 PGM Market Outlook

Platinum Group Metals The divergence between platinum and palladium contin-ued to become starker during 2019, with palladium reach-ing new record high levels, while platinum prices strug-gled to gain traction and break over key resistance levels. It is this divergence in prices that could change the for-tunes of these metals in the medium term. Over the course of 2020, however, palladium prices could strengthen further at least in the first quarter and then lose steam but still remain at historically elevated levels. Meanwhile, CPM Group believes platinum prices have limited downside from present levels but are unlikely to rise sharply this year.

While major changes in price direction should not be expected for these metals in 2020, the deep discount of platinum to palladium makes platinum more attrac-tive to both investors as well as fabricators in the me-dium to long term. This makes buying platinum at present price levels with a medium to long-term in-vestment objective very compelling to us.

The platinum:palladium ratio, which best captures the price relation between the two metals reached a record low monthly average of 0.5 in December 2019. Platinum was half the price of palladium. This ratio could poten-tially deteriorate further, which can be expected more as a result of stronger palladium prices and less because of more weakness in platinum prices. The ratio should be expected to stabilize and reverse course in the medium term, driven primarily by gains in platinum prices.

Price Outlook

Platinum prices are forecast to move higher in a more consistent fashion in the medium term (one and a half to three years) and reach new record high levels over the next ten years. A combination of falling mine supply and growth in fabrication demand are expected to drive plati-num prices higher in the long term.

Over the course of 2020 platinum prices are forecast to move sideways to higher. There is healthy investor inter-est in platinum at present price levels and its deep dis-count to palladium makes it that much more appealing to investors. As an example, at the end of 2019 institutional investor interest on the Nymex was at record high levels. At the end of 2019, on average platinum was half the price of palladium, which makes investors view it as a value buy at this time and increases the view throughout the market that there will be further substitution of palla-dium with platinum where possible. Investors also see limited downside for platinum, which reduces the risk of taking a long position.

Over the course of 2020 platinum prices appear unlikely to us to slip below $800, at least not in any sustained fashion. Investors are expected to remain interested in platinum over the course of the year, driven by concerns regarding disruptions to South African mine supply, an improvement in market sentiment following a scaling back of trade tensions, platinum’s present discount to pal-ladium, and platinum’s attractive long-term fundamen-tals. Platinum prices have resistance at $1,025. Prices

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Page 2 2020 PGM Market Outlook

could struggle to settle above this level in a sustained fashion this year. If major mine supply disruptions occur in South Africa with Eskom (South Africa’s state owned utility) undertaking elaborate power generation units maintenance making the grid vulnerable to load shed-ding, then the $1,025 level can be easily broken.

Palladium prices are forecast to continue rising during 2020. The greatest strength is expected to occur during the first quarter of this year. While prices may soften over the course of the year from their lofty levels during the first quarter of the year, they are not expected to decline sharply, since any weakness in palladium prices would be expected to be bought up by investors looking to enter the metal that has provided extremely strong performance over the past several years. Furthermore, the positive fun-damentals for palladium still are intact, providing greater incentive for investors to buy any weakness in prices. Palladium prices are forecast to average $2,040 during 2020, up around 34% on the annual average in 2019.

Platinum

While it is CPM Group’s expectation that platinum’s fun-damentals are nearing a phase of major changes that would be very positive for platinum prices, the metal’s fundamentals still are not at that point.

The platinum market is forecast to remain in a surplus during 2020, its sixth consecutive year of such market conditions. A surplus market refers to an excess of newly refined supply over fabrication demand. The market needs to rely on investors to absorb this excess metal for prices to remain flat. A lack of interest from investors can weigh heavily on prices, with market makers demanding

a discount for absorbing this metal and holding it until fabrication or more investment demand rises,.

There are growing signs of investor interest in platinum as it trades near multi-year lows. Much of this investor interest is driven by the fact that the metal has been badly beaten down and there seems to be limited downside from present price levels. Prices have stabilized around current low levels: After falling sharply in 2014 and 2015, they have been flat to modestly higher for more than four years.

There also is interest in platinum from the relative value perspective, with palladium its most direct substitute trading at record high levels. While these factors are sup-portive of platinum prices and investor interest in the metal, they are not sufficient for investors to aggressively buy the metal and chase prices higher. Many investors will wait for more significant upward price moves, giving up what they perceive as ‘the first 10%’ rather than trying to buy at or near a cyclical bottom.

While the medium to long-term fundamentals suggest a tightening of the market balance the market presently is not in that phase of the supply and demand cycle. This may limit any aggressive buying by investors in the near term. Instead investors are expected to step in as buyers every time prices soften and pull back from making in-vestments when prices rise strongly. Such investor ac-tions will prevent platinum prices from declining sharply, but also will prevent prices from rising in any sustained fashion in the near term.

The factor that has been weighing most heavily of plati-num prices is the softness in platinum fabrication de-

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Page 3 2020 PGM Market Outlook

mand. One of the biggest blows to the platinum market came following the Volkswagen scandal, which acceler-ated the decline in diesel passenger vehicle demand in Europe. To be accurate, European regulators had realized the errors of their earlier pro-diesel policies and were shifting away from diesel subsidies. The revelation that VW was cheating on emission testing came in the midst of this, adding fuel to the arguments against diesel.

The scandal coincided with a changed tax structure for fuels in India, which reduced the discount that diesel en-joyed. This weighed on diesel passenger vehicle market share in India, the only other passenger vehicle market outside of Europe with significant diesel market share in light duty vehicles.

In addition to the shrinking market share of diesel passen-ger vehicles the increased use of selective catalyst reduc-tion technology in various automobiles which use less platinum, and the decline in demand for platinum jewelry from China all collectively reduced the growth in fabrica-tion demand for platinum.

The one factor that was helping sustain demand for plati-num was the strength in demand for commercial vehicles across most major auto markets. However, in 2019 com-mercial vehicle demand in China declined, which weak-ened the one major source of demand that had still been showing signs of strength. Platinum fabrication demand already had been growing at an anemic rate between 2015 and 2018 (driven primarily by strength in the com-mercial vehicle market). The combination of these factors led to an actual decline in fabrication demand during 2019.

Commercial vehicle demand is forecast to weaken further in 2020, as economic growth slows in many major com-mercial vehicle markets and the commercial vehicle mar-ket reaches a cyclical top after years of healthy growth. This is expected to reduce platinum fabrication demand from the auto sector, which continues to suffer a loss in diesel passenger vehicle market share.

In addition to the weakness in demand from the auto sec-tor, demand also is expected to decline from the platinum jewelry market, with demand from China continuing to contract. An ongoing slowdown in Chinese economic growth, at least during the first half of 2020, is expected to weigh on platinum jewelry demand from the country. Jewelry purchases are discretionary and are unlikely to pick up unless there are signs of stable economic growth. Furthermore, there is a weak relation between the price of platinum and platinum jewelry, which is extremely ex-pensive to make. The price weakness in platinum does not necessarily translate into weakness in platinum jew-elry prices. This disconnect keeps the demand for plati-num jewelry more closely tied to broader economic con-ditions in a country rather than with the price of the metal.

With demand declining from platinum’s largest uses, which collectively account for around 80% of platinum fabrication demand, total platinum fabrication demand is expected to slip lower in 2020 to 6.9 million ounces, down 3.8% from 2019 levels.

The decline in platinum fabrication demand is being ac-companied by a decline in total supply in 2020 as well. Total platinum supply is forecast to slip to 7.1 million ounces in 2020, down 3.1% from 2019. The decline in

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YTD Commercial Vehicle Sales Growth by RegionNovember 2019

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Annual Platinum Fabrication DemandThrough 2020

Page 4 2020 PGM Market Outlook

total supply is driven by both a decline in mine produc-tion as well as scrap supply. Reduced mine supply from South Africa and Zimbabwe and reduced scrap supply due to low prices and reduced feed from the auto sector is expected to bring down total supply.

Despite the decline in total supply during 2020, the plati-num market is expected to remain in a surplus because of the simultaneous decline in fabrication demand.

While the short-term fundamentals of the market are not particularly promising, investors are expected to remain interested in purchasing the metal at present levels with a medium to long term objective when platinum fundamen-tals improve and with it the price of the metal.

The platinum market is expected to shift toward a deficit over the next couple of years, driven by both a decline in total supply and an increase in fabrication demand.

Substitution of Palladium With Platinum

Platinum’s price discount to palladium makes a compel-ling case for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to make a switch from the use of palladium to platinum in gasoline auto catalysts. That said, the tightening of emis-sions control regulations and increased scrutiny and strin-gency associated with compliance to these regulations has made OEMs somewhat reluctant to make changes to the formulations for purposes of cost savings.

The removal of sulfur from gasoline enabled the use of palladium in gasoline engines around 15-20 years ago. Platinum was rapidly substituted with the then cheaper palladium. When this occurred and over the subsequent two decades or so, palladium-rhodium catalysts for gaso-

line engines have been fine tuned to meet the ever-tightening regulations. To reintroduce platinum is possi-ble, but it requires some optimization to achieve the re-sults of palladium-rhodium catalysts. This has slowed the process of any efforts to reintroduce platinum into gaso-line vehicle catalysts. Going forward, OEMs are expected to increase the use of three-way catalysts using all three PGMs (TWCs) to create a more diversified mix of PGMs, which could benefit platinum fabrication demand from this sector.

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Page 5 2020 PGM Market Outlook

Palladium

CPM Group forecasts palladium prices to remain strong in the near term, potentially continuing to make new re-cord highs at least during the early part of 2020. The pal-ladium market, unlike platinum, has been in a deficit over the past few years. This coupled with strong investor de-mand has driven palladium prices to new record highs on several occasions in the recent past. Even if palladium prices cease to break records every other day as they have been doing recently, they are expected to remain at his-torically elevated levels. Palladium fundamentals and investor interest in the metal are both strong at this time. Any weakness in palladium prices should be met with strong investor interest. This is expected to help keep pal-ladium prices at elevated levels.

The palladium market is expected to swing between sur-pluses and balanced conditions over the next few years. These conditions are expected to keep palladium prices at elevated levels but should prevent a continued run up as was experienced since the beginning of 2016.

Strong fabrication demand has played a very important role in tightening the palladium market and drawing in-vestor attention to the metal, which further tightened the market and drove prices higher. Palladium fabrication demand benefitted from numerous factors (especially from the auto sector) such as its replacement of platinum in gasoline engine vehicles, dominance of gasoline pas-senger vehicles in the two largest auto markets of the world (China and the United States), and a decline in die-sel passenger vehicle market share in Europe and India with much of the lost market share in these countries go-

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ing toward gasoline. Furthermore, palladium also was used to partially substitute platinum in diesel auto cata-lysts. As a result the metal is used in varying degrees in both gasoline and diesel engines, albeit to a lesser extent in diesel than in gasoline fueled vehicles.

During 2019 some cracks developed in this near-perfect story of palladium demand from the auto sector, with passenger vehicles sales in both China and the United States declining for the year. This weakness in demand was counterbalanced by other positive demand factors, however.

U.S. light duty vehicle (LDV) demand for the full year 2019 stood at 17.1 million vehicles, down 1.2% from 2018 levels. The composition of LDV sales has been changing in recent years, however, with light-duty trucks including SUVs and minivans now accounting for 72% of total LDV sales in 2019. This was up from 61% in 2016 and significantly higher than the typical 50% mar-ket share that existed between 2002 and 2011. This shift is important for palladium fabrication demand because holding all other factors influencing palladium demand in auto catalysts constant, the larger the engine size the greater the palladium loading.

Chinese passenger vehicle sales slipped to 21.4 million in 2019, down 9.5% from 2018. That said, the large volume of vehicles sold in China, 23.1 million during the first eleven months, absorbed a large volume of palladium despite the 9% decline in sales. Also, the tightening emis-sions standards in China further help support palladium demand. Holding all other factors that affect palladium demand from auto catalyst constant, tighter emissions

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Palladium Surplus/Deficit

Page 6 2020 PGM Market Outlook

cline in palladium prices should be expected, but this is not forecast to occur over the short to medium term. This should keep investors interested in palla-dium for some time.

One factor that is expected to start shifting palladium fun-damentals is the increase in mine supply. The recent sharp and sustained run up in palladium prices has in-creased the focus of palladium miners on developing pal-ladium rich projects. Given the long lead times associated with bringing mines onstream, these new projects are expected to have a more meaningful impact on total sup-ply in the middle to latter half of the current decade. This increase in supply can be expected to start shifting the fundamentals in ways that would be negative for prices, but that would be years from now.

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standards typically result in a greater demand for palla-dium.

On the supply side, palladium total supply has been rising over the past several years. Even so, the gains in total supply have been insufficient in keeping up with the pace of growth in total palladium fabrication demand. The in-ability of newly refined palladium supply to keep up with fabrication demand coupled with rising investor interest in the metal has resulted in the strong price action of the past few years.

Investors are not expected to exit the palladium mar-ket easily, given the sharp and sustained gains in pal-ladium prices over the past several years. It will take a shift in the fundamentals for investors to begin exiting their positions. If and when this occurs a sharp de-

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Page 7 2020 PGM Market Outlook

On the demand side the fundamentals are likely to be more resilient, with outright substitution of palladium less likely (as explained above). The increased use of three-way catalysts that use a combination of platinum, palladium, and rhodium should begin to eat into palla-dium fabrication demand to an extent, however. Further-more, while, alternate auto technologies are still expected to account for only a marginal share of total global vehi-cle demand by the second half of the current decade, all of the technologies under consideration do not use any palladium. This loss in demand would be expected to co-incide with the increase in mine supply, which would be the kind of shift in palladium market fundamentals that could cause investors to leave the market and precipitate a decline in prices. This outlook is longer term and not expected to affect palladium prices in the short to me-dium term.

Emission Standards In Major Auto Markets2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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Notes: Standards are for passenger cars and light commercial vehiclesChina 3 was introduced in Beijing in December 2005.Chinese Emissions standards for new passenger cars and light duty commercial vehicles up to China 5 are based on European regulations. China 6 is based on Euro 6 and U.S. Tier 3.Select Cities in India include, Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Banglore,Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Pune, Surat, Kanpur, and Agra. Bharat VI (equivalent of Euro 6) will be introduced on a nationwide basis in 2020LEV II Standards - Low Emission Vehicles (California Emission Standards)Source: Dieselnet, CPM Group

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Page 8 2020 PGM Market Outlook

Platinum Statistical Position

*Thousand Troy Ounces; Notes: Excludes transitional economies, except as noted. Secondary production statistics exclude toll-refined material. There may be discrepancies due to rounding. NA -- not avail-able. e -- estimates. p -- projections. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Mines, Statistics Canada, trade sources, CPM Group.

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Palladium Statistical Position

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Platinum Statistical PositionSupply 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020pMine Production South Africa 4,132 4,436 3,091 4,465 4,249 4,279 4,417 4,339 4,221 Russia 773 757 786 739 751 789 771 793 793 Zimbabwe 342 406 403 406 474 499 500 478 408 Canada 215 222 300 265 289 257 233 210 213 United States 121 122 120 121 128 111 133 137 149 Other 165 144 147 124 125 125 126 126 126 Total 5,747 6,087 4,847 6,119 6,016 6,060 6,180 6,083 5,910 % Change Year Ago -10.3% 5.9% -20.4% 26.2% -1.7% 0.7% 2.0% -1.6% -2.8%

Secondary Supply 1,330 1,322 1,250 1,248 1,254 1,249 1,220 1,200 1,150 % Change Year Ago -8.9% -0.6% -5.4% -0.2% 0.5% -0.4% -2.4% -1.6% -4.2%

Total Supply 7,077 7,409 6,098 7,367 7,270 7,309 7,400 7,283 7,060 % Change Year Ago -10.1% 4.7% -17.7% 20.8% -1.3% 0.5% 1.2% -1.6% -3.1%

Fabrication Demand Auto 3,153 3,234 3,123 3,173 3,236 3,290 3,380 3,362 3,181 Jewelry 2,502 2,446 2,409 2,353 2,328 2,315 2,312 2,284 2,211 Other 1,522 1,542 1,482 1,491 1,490 1,488 1,511 1,517 1,499Total Demand 7,177 7,222 7,015 7,017 7,054 7,093 7,203 7,163 6,892 % Change Year Ago 1.7% 0.6% -2.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.6% -0.6% -3.8%

Net Surplus or Deficit -100 188 -917 351 216 216 197 120 169

Palladium Statistical PositionSupply 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020pMine Production Russia 2,638 2,590 2,759 2,585 2,569 2,748 2,681 2,760 2,760 South Africa 2,384 2,497 1,939 2,674 2,494 2,562 2,605 2,676 2,629 Canada 519 585 748 692 671 585 604 569 592 United States 404 412 408 411 428 370 470 484 526 Others 605 667 683 683 713 732 782 770 719Total 6,549 6,751 6,537 7,045 6,876 6,997 7,142 7,259 7,225% Change Year Ago -4.2% 3.1% -3.2% 7.8% -2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% -0.5%

Secondary SupplyTotal 2,177 2,313 2,421 2,435 2,496 2,515 2,525 2,475 2,400% Change Year Ago 5.5% 6.2% 4.7% 0.6% 2.5% 0.8% 0.4% -2.0% -3.0%

Total Supply 8,727 9,063 8,958 9,480 9,372 9,512 9,667 9,734 9,625% Change Year Ago -1.9% 3.9% -1.2% 5.8% -1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.7% -1.1%

Fabrication Demand Electronics 1,191 1,229 1,246 1,250 1,241 1,257 1,293 1,288 1,275 Automotive 5,465 5,695 5,921 6,132 6,260 6,553 6,599 6,515 6,214 Dental 756 744 737 727 726 711 702 697 690 Other 1,134 1,134 1,137 1,134 1,127 1,143 1,163 1,188 1,164Total Demand 8,546 8,801 9,041 9,242 9,353 9,664 9,756 9,688 9,342% Change Year Ago 5.0% 3.0% 2.7% 2.2% 1.2% 3.3% 1.0% -0.7% -3.6%

Net Surplus or Deficit 180 262 -82 237 19 -152 -89 46 283

CPM Group LLC

CPM Group is a fundamentally based commodities research shop. We develop our own proprietary estimates of gold,

silver, platinum, and palladium supply and demand on a global basis, drawing on every resource we can find, including our

own extensive list of contacts involved in precious metals around the world. We have been doing this sort of research and

analysis since the 1970s, far longer than anyone else in the business. We also undertake research in specialty metals, base

metals, energy and agricultural commodities. We are known for our basic fundamental research, a wide range of finan-

cially oriented consulting services, and our expertise in using financial derivatives to structure financing for producers,

refiners, industrial users, and investors interested in either hedging or investing in commodities. Our investment phi-

losophy is simple: We are value investors who base our decisions on what to buy, sell, hold, or avoid on the fundamentals

of each asset, and the macro-economic, financial and political environmental factors that we expect will affect that as-

set’s value. We have concerns, expressed in this report and elsewhere, about long-term imbalances in government deficit

spending, public and private debt, and a wide range of other economic and political factors. We don’t expect the world’s

financial system to collapse, however. That is not the way the world tends to work. More likely economic outcomes in the

real world lie between the extremes of cataclysmic collapses and nirvana. We advise our clients – and practice what we

preach – to have some of their wealth in gold and silver as an insurance policy against a catastrophic failure, but we also

advise them to invest other portions of their money in precious metals and other assets based on the assumption that that

sort of failure does not occur. We focus on investing based on likely scenarios, but with an eye always open to outlying

events that take the world’s markets by surprise. We have watched investors who were so worried about a collapse that

they missed some of the largest stock and bond market rallies of all times over the past 30 years, while watching their safe

haven assets fluctuate eight-fold in value up and down, and then up and down again. We prefer our clients to buy and sell

precious metals and other assets based on cyclical and other developments, while also maintaining that long-term insur-

ance policy in case the levee breaks.

CPM Group LLC

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Suite 310

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Published 2/1/2020

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