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Editor : Eric Shu
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THE WEEKLY AGENDA
Phillip Talks: The week ahead in gold and stocks
Thai stock market outlook: Sideways in downtrend channel
Sideways in major downtrend channel: Early this week will see the release of Thai 4QFY19 GDP data but the market’s attention is likely to stretch further towards FY20 GDP outlook after major forecasting agencies downgraded their full-year estimates and foresaw lower-than-expected economic growth for the year. The GDP is expected to be lowest in 1QFY20 due to the Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic, domestic drought and the delayed fiscal budget. Later in the week, all eyes will be on the Constitutional Court ruling on opposition Future Forward Party (FFP)’s dissolution case, scheduled for Feb 21. This high-profile case could create high market volatility on the ruling day. Overall, the SET index is projected to spend most of the week moving in the downtrend channel between 1,515 and 1,555 points.
Same old factor still needs to be watched: China’s Hubei province recorded a dramatic spike in the number of coronavirus cases in just 24 hours after provincial authorities changed their method for diagnosing cases. If the outbreak ends, we anticipate that China may announce a huge economic stimulus package aimed at bolstering its economic and investment sectors, a move that would be positive for Thai stocks.
SET50 futures trading strategy: Trading S50H20 in a range of between 1,510 and 1,545 points.
Gold Outlook: Gold extend gains on renewed coronavirus fears
Sideways with upward tilt: Gold received support from a surgein coronavirus cases in China after authorities changed theircounting methods. Meanwhile, an increase in SPDR Gold Trustholdings to 922.23 tons, the highest level since Oct 2019, shouldset gold up for a return to $1,590/oz.
Gold futures trading strategy: Look to open long GOH20 in arange of between $1,570 and $1,590/oz. Place a stop-loss orderat $1,560/oz.
Strategy Team #487
Key factors to watchFeb 21Charter court to rule whether to dissolve the FFP for allegedly violating a political party law by accepting a Bt191mn loan to finance its election campaign
Key economic data
Feb 17
▪ Thai: 4QFY19 GDP
Japan: 4QFY19 GDP
Feb 19 UK: CPI y-y (Jan) US: PPI m-m (Jan)
Feb 20
UK: Retail sales y-y (Jan)
Feb 21 US: Existing home sales (Jan)
www.poems.in.th 1
Weekly Consensus View
Sideways Up
Feb 17 - 21, 2020
02 635 1700 ต่อ 486
Weekly Technical View
Although MACD and Modi. Sto. issued sell signals,the stock price remains above support at aroundBt14.80. Since the price has tested EMA-200, wesee this as an opportunity to buy at support levelto bet on a breakout of the EMA-200.
“Sideways in range-bound manner”
The SET index is in a sideways trading range of 1,505-1,547 points and under all EMAs which are bearish but MACD remains above the signal line. So the SET is expected to move sideways in a range of between 1,505 and 1,547 points.
Price has returned to hold above all EMAs, whichare bullish, while Modi. Sto. flashed a buy signal.The stock is likely to move higher.
SupportResistance
Support
Support
THE WEEKLY AGENDA
Resistance
resistance
ext. 485
TU 14.80 / 14.00 15.60 / 16.20
CHG2.58 / 2.48
2.72 / 2.84
1505 / 1485
1547 / 1565
Feb 17 - 21, 2020
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Technical Team #487
WEEKLY STATISTICS
Performance of major Asian currencies against US dollar
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Thai
land
Philip
ines
Chi
na
Taiw
an
Kore
a
Indi
a
Sing
apor
e
Hon
g ko
ng
Viet
nam
Mal
aysi
a
Indo
nesi
a
WOW MTD YTDAp
prec
iatio
nD
epre
ciat
ion
-2.13%
-1.39%
-0.99%
-0.27%
-0.16%
0.77%
0.95%
1.05%
1.19%
1.21%
1.54%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Indonesia
Philipines
Malaysia
Vietnam
Thailand
India
Korea
China
Hong kong
Singapore
Taiwan
w-w Asian stock market performances
Source: Bloomberg
Feb 17 - 21, 2020
www.poems.in.th 3
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
9 De
c 19
16 D
ec 1
9
23 D
ec 1
9
30 D
ec 1
9
6 Ja
n 20
13 Ja
n 20
20 Ja
n 20
27 Ja
n 20
3 Fe
b 20
10 F
eb 2
0
Thailand Philippines S.Korea Taiwan Vietnam Indonesia India
Unit: Mil US$
WEEKLY STATISTICS
Foreign portfolio Flows into 7 ASIAN bourses
Forward P/E ratios of Asian stock markets22.77
15.91 15.61 15.3814.31 14.21
13.22 12.8911.62
10.64
0
5
10
15
20
25
India
Tai
wan
Tha
iland
Mal
aysi
a
Phili
ppin
es
Indon
esia
Vie
tnam
Sing
apor
e
Chin
a
Hon
g Kon
g
Mean = 14.45
Source: Bloomberg
Feb 17 - 21, 2020
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Contact Information of Hong Kong Representatives
Research
Benny WANG
Dealing Director
(852) 2277 6720
ZHANG Jing
Research Analyst
Transportation and Automobiles
(86) 21 51699400-103
Terry LI
Research Analyst
TMT, Education and Finance
(852) 2277 6527
Sales
Eurus ZHOU
Research Analyst
Pharmaceutical and Consumer
(852) 2277 6515
Tracy KU
Research Analyst
Retail and Property
(852) 2277 6516
Aric AU Yoshikazu SHIKITA
Manager, Corporate & Institutional Sales Manager, International Sales
(852) 2277 6783 (852) 2277 6624
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks
> +20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20% upside from the current price
-5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within +/- 5% from the current price
-5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price
< -20% Sell 5 -20% downside from the current price
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock’s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
GENERAL DISCLAIMER
This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited (“PSHK”), which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for regulated activities, including Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities). This publication was originally prepared by analysts from our overseas affiliates. The information contained herein is based on sources that PSHK and its affiliates believe to be accurate and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and is not intended to provide tailored investment advice and does not take into account the individual financial situation and objectives of any specific
person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of any investments or securities discussed or recommended in this report. This report is not (and should not be construed as) a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on such business in that jurisdiction. This research report may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part or and any form or manner, without the express written consent of PSHK. Please direct any enquiries to [email protected].
Investment involves risks. For details of product risks, please view the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phiIlip.com.hk.
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