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1
2020 Danbury Public Schools Task Force Options for the Future
February 11, 2020
2
Introduction
Enrollment Growth and Areas of Need Short and Long-Term Facilities/ Enrollment Options Elementary Middle High
Recommendations Next Steps
3
High Model
PK-12th Projection - High
Prepared low, medium and high projections Using high projection model for space planning purposes due to most recent high
levels of in-migration Prepared PK projections
Based on 8-year trend in annual growth continuing for the next three years (in line with projected years of elementary growth
Held static from 2023-24 on, as funding and policies may change
YearBirth Year
Births K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 PKPK-12 Total
K-12 Total
K-5 Total
6-8 Total
9-12 Total
2019-20 2014 1,052 925 905 934 900 929 945 936 939 861 974 805 847 772 286 11,958 11,672 5,538 2,736 3,3982020-21 2015 1,067 919 938 921 939 916 934 934 968 966 933 880 798 861 311 12,218 11,907 5,567 2,868 3,4722021-22 2016 1,140 982 932 955 926 955 921 923 966 996 1,046 843 873 811 338 12,467 12,129 5,671 2,885 3,5732022-23 2017 1,074 925 996 948 960 942 960 910 954 994 1,079 945 836 888 367 12,704 12,337 5,731 2,858 3,7482023-24 2018 974 839 938 1,014 953 977 947 949 941 982 1,077 975 937 850 367 12,746 12,379 5,668 2,872 3,8392024-25 2019 974 839 851 955 1,020 970 982 936 981 968 1,064 973 967 953 367 12,826 12,459 5,617 2,885 3,9572025-26 2020 1,046 901 851 866 960 1,038 975 971 968 1,010 1,049 962 965 983 367 12,866 12,499 5,591 2,949 3,9592026-27 2021 1,042 898 914 866 871 977 1,044 964 1,004 996 1,094 948 954 981 367 12,878 12,511 5,570 2,964 3,9772027-28 2022 1,022 881 911 930 871 886 982 1,032 997 1,033 1,079 989 940 970 367 12,868 12,501 5,461 3,062 3,9782028-29 2023 1,012 872 894 927 935 886 891 971 1,067 1,026 1,119 975 981 956 367 12,867 12,500 5,405 3,064 4,0312029-30 2024 1,019 878 884 910 932 951 891 881 1,004 1,098 1,111 1,011 967 997 367 12,882 12,515 5,446 2,983 4,086
4
PK Trends
Increasing trend of identified special needs preschoolers Average annual growth of 8.6% in identified special needs preschoolers over the
last 8 years In line with average annual estimated in-migration rate to the District of 8.4% over the last 8
years Projections reflect continued growth in PK programs – estimate an additional 4
classrooms from current (District already implementing 1 additional classroom next year)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Special Needs Preschool Identification Trends
Births 3 years previous Births 4 years previous SPED PKSources: Danbury Public Schools and CT DPH
5
K-5 Projected Enrollments - High
Peak enrollment in K-5 projected for 2022-23 at 193 more than current Projected to be above current enrollment levels for the next seven years
5,538 5,5675,671 5,731 5,668 5,617 5,591 5,570
5,461 5,405 5,446
5,538
4,750
4,900
5,050
5,200
5,350
5,500
5,650
5,800
5,950
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Danbury Public Schools Elementary (K-5) Projections
K-5 Projected Total Current Enrollment
6
Elementary Growth
In-migration of students into the Downtown area
Concerns for growth due to capacity at: Ellsworth Hayestown Mill Ridge Park
District has already had to close grades to new registrants at these schools due to lack of capacity
7
Elementary Growth
Measured neighborhood trends in two areas of the Downtown to better understand potential options for short-term solutions to overcrowding
Eastern side of Downtown growing faster, higher rate of in-migration
Western side growing, but not as fast
8
Downtown East 8% growth in K-5 students over the last
four years in Downtown East
10-14% of grades 1-5 residing in the area were identified as new to district over each of the last three years
New to district in area for grades 1-5:
2017-18: 84
2018-19: 79
2019-20: 115
Downtown East K-5 enrollment projected to grow 2% over the next three years
9
Downtown West 6% growth in K-5 students over the
last four years in Downtown West 7-12% of grades 1-5 residing in the
area were identified as new to district over each of the last three years New to district in area for grades 1-5:
2017-18: 78 2018-19: 55 2019-20: 92
Downtown West projected to grow only .3% over the next three years
Greater level of churn in students in Downtown West
10
Elementary Options
2020-21 Shift 7 existing classrooms of early childhood SPED and PK programming from
Hayestown and Great Plain to leased spaces Creates additional K-5 capacity:
Great Plain: 95 (25 per 4 classrooms, 95% utilization); for a total k-5 capacity of about 375
Hayestown: 71 (25 per 3 classrooms, 95% utilization); for a total k-5 capacity of about 470 (excluding EAS/Kindergarten program which occupies 2 classrooms)
11
Elementary Options2020-21 continued Use additional capacity to alleviate enrollment burden at Ellsworth, Hayestown,
Mill Ridge and Park Close new 1st-5th grade enrollments at those schools New registrants from Downtown East area assigned to Great Plain
Estimate about 110-115 K-5 students Some students will shift from Hayestown to Great Plain
Assign about 60-65 new registrants from Downtown West to Hayestown Estimate about 85-90 total new students in sending area
2021-22 Continue to close new 1st – 5th grade registrations at Ellsworth, Hayestown, Mill
Ridge and Park, and send to Hayestown and Great Plain via Downtown East and Downtown West sending areas
Maintain leased spaces
12
Elementary Options2022-23 Renovated Ellsworth Annex (Osborne Street facility) opens - 7 additional
classrooms 4 classrooms for early childhood SPED programs (1 currently at Osborne St. and 3 to
be shifted out of leased space) 3 classrooms for Ellsworth K-5 overflow use Re-evaluate Downtown sending areas – continue as needed to relieve growth
pressures at Ellsworth, Hayestown, Mill Ridge and Park
2023-24 Maintain Ellsworth Annex, Downtown sending areas and leased spaces as above
2024-25 Maintain Ellsworth Annex, Downtown sending areas and leased spaces as above
13
Ellsworth Annex
14
Elementary Options2025-26
15 newly constructed additional classrooms and program area open at Great Plain
Shift 15 early childhood SPED and PK classes out of leased spaces and into Great Plain (incorporates anticipated growth of 4 classrooms from current year)
End leases
Maintain 4 classrooms of early childhood SPED at Ellsworth Annex
Re-evaluate need for Downtown sending areas
15
Great Plain
16
Elementary Summary
Hayestown
Great Plain
New Lease: 8 Classrooms3+4+1 for
growth
Opens a total of 7 classrooms at Hayestown and Great Plain
for K-5 growth in the Downtown – establish
sending areas
Maintain Sacred Heart Lease: 7
Classrooms4-SPED3-PreK
Great Plain15 CR Addition Opens in 25-26
(8+4+3 for growth)
Ellsworth Annex(Osborne St)
8 SPED CR
7 CR Addition Opens in 2022-23(1 Ex. PreK + SPED Growth + K-5 Ellsworth)
Once Great Plain addition opens in 2025-26(3 PreK CR + 1 Ex. PreK CR + 3 CR for
Ellsworth K-5)
Long Term Solutions (2025-26 and Beyond) Renovations and Additions
Short Term Solutions (2020-21 through 2025-26)Leasing Options
17
6-8 Projected Enrollments - High
Projecting enrollment to surpass current levels by at least 120 students over the next five years
Projected enrollment peak in 2027-28 and 2028-29 of about 325 more middle schoolers than this year
2,736
2,868 2,885 2,858 2,872 2,8852,949 2,964
3,062 3,0642,983
2,736
2,500
2,650
2,800
2,950
3,100
3,250
3,400
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Danbury Public Schools Middle (6-8) Projections
6-8 Projected Total Current Enrollment
18
Middle School Options
Long Term Options:1. Add 13 modular classrooms to each of the 3 existing middle schools2. Build 13 additional classrooms at Broadview
Expand existing program and redistrict Or, open academy with unique programming
3. Build 13 additional classrooms at Westside
19
Middle School Options Long-Term Option 1
Add modular classrooms to each of the three middle school buildings for occupancy in 2025-26 to distribute additional students
Each school’s capacity increases by about 85-110 students
No redistricting required
Magnet program expansion
However, determined infeasible due to:
Soils not supportive of modular classrooms at Rogers Park
Lack of site space at Westside (can only accommodate up to only 2 modular classrooms)
Therefore, unable to proportionally distribute the modular classrooms
20
Middle School Options
Long-Term Option 2
Construct 13 additional classrooms at Broadview for occupancy in 2025-26
Option 2a: Increase capacity for current programming by about 280 students for a total capacity of about 1,300
Option 2b: Incorporate stand-alone core facility features in addition to build a self-contained academy program for about 280 students
District School 6 7 8Total 6-8
Enfield John F. Kennedy Middle 381 370 398 1,149Darien Middlesex Middle 384 366 351 1,101
Waterbury Michael F. Wallace Middle 363 356 333 1,052East Hartford East Hartford Middle 367 354 330 1,051
Wilton Middlebrook 307 345 351 1,003New Milford Schaghticoke Middle 323 323 345 991Torrington Torrington Middle 325 327 333 985
South Windsor Timothy Edwards 313 314 354 981Danbury Rogers Park Middle 331 303 345 979
Waterbury West Side Middle 343 315 320 978Danbury Broadview Middle 320 321 336 977
2018-19 Enrollments of Largest CT Middle Schools
Source: CSDE Edsight
21
Middle School OptionsOption 2a Would become largest middle school
in state at about 1,300 students Would require redistricting portions
of Rogers Park to Broadview Potential to consolidate King and
Stadley Rough to send entirely to Broadview
Potential to send Morris St. to Broadview
Avoids further splitting elementary school feeder pattern
Would overtax existing facility’s core capacity (cafeteria, gym, media center, etc.)
22
Middle School OptionsOption 2b Construct additional core spaces to develop stand-alone programming area Develop self-contained educational program for a new academy Draw students from all over District, similar to Westside
23
Broadview Option
24
Middle School Options Long-Term Option 3
Construct 13 additional classrooms at Westside for occupancy in 2025-26
Increase capacity by about 280 students for a total capacity of about 1,030
Expand magnet programming by 280 students who will be pulled out of Broadview and Rogers Park districts
Construction concerns at Westside
Need for/ lack of swing space during construction
Parking issues with additional staff and program
25
Westside Options
26
Projected to exceed 3,500 students beginning in 2021-22
Nearing 4,000 students in 2024-25
9-12 Enrollment Projections
3,3983,472
3,573
3,7483,839
3,957 3,959 3,977 3,9784,031
4,086
3,398
3,000
3,150
3,300
3,450
3,600
3,750
3,900
4,050
4,200
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Danbury Public Schools High (9-12) Projections
9-12 Total Current Enrollment
27
High School Options
Long-Term Option
Construct new 9th grade academy for 1,100 students on-site for occupancy in 2024-25
Options would eliminate either current parking or playfields on site
Year 9 Year 10 11 1210-12 Total
2019-20 974 2019-20 805 847 772 2,4242020-21 933 2020-21 880 798 861 2,5392021-22 1,046 2021-22 843 873 811 2,5272022-23 1,079 2022-23 945 836 888 2,6692023-24 1,077 2023-24 975 937 850 2,7622024-25 1,064 2024-25 973 967 953 2,8932025-26 1,049 2025-26 962 965 983 2,9102026-27 1,094 2026-27 948 954 981 2,8832027-28 1,079 2027-28 989 940 970 2,8992028-29 1,119 2028-29 975 981 956 2,9122029-30 1,111 2029-30 1,011 967 997 2,975
9th Grade Academy Danbury Public High School
Births
HIGHLOWMED
ActualLinearExponential5-Year Mvg Avg3-Year Mvg Avg5-Year WeightedLinear w/ 2019 estExp w/ 19 est5-Yr Mvg Avg w/ 19 est.Changes in Other Dip Years
19961,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,067Net
19971,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,076
1998996996996996996996996996996-7.4%
19991,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0768.0%0.6%
20001,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,0691,069
20011,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,0921,092
20021,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,1261,126
20031,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,1961,196
20041,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,0281,028-14.0%
20051,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,1691,16913.7%-0.3%
20061,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,1921,192
20071,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,2131,213
20081,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,2341,234
20091,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,1781,178
20101,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,1411,141
20111,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,0761,076
20121,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,0931,093
20131,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0991,0994.2%
20141,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,0521,052-4.3%Out of State Birth Addition Table
20151,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671,0671.4%
20161,1431,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1401,1407.1%LinearW/OOSTExponentialW/OOSTHighW/OOSTModerateW/OOSTLowW/OOST
2017p1,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0741,0742017p10351082103510821,0351,0821,0351,0821,0351,082
2018p9749749749749749749749749742018est1122.259740259711731120.877736754811711,0181,0641,0161,0621,0161,062
201997497497497497494694694620191123.34556747611741122.0067353824117210251,07110161,06210021,047
20201,0821,0791,0461,0071,0221,0771,0741,04020201124.431394692311751123.1368711884117410401,08710111,0569871,031
20211,0811,0771,0429851,0141,0761,0721,03520211125.517221908511761124.2681453182117510511,09810041,0499731,017
20221,0791,0761,0229891,0071,0741,0701,01420221126.603049124811771125.4005589184117610601,1089961,0419591,002
20231,0781,0751,0129941,0051,0721,0681,00220231127.68887634111781126.5341131366117710661,1149871,031944986
20241,0761,0731,0199891,0081,0711,0671,007
20251,0751,0721,0289911,0091,0711,0671,020
20261,008
Estimated BirthsJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJan-Jun TotalYearly Total
2000907986881007551810690.484565014For Chart
2001878185871009753710920.4917582418
200294849181969954511260.4840142096YearActualHighMediumLow
2003929095961097755911960.467391304320001,069
200480838990749050610280.492217898820011,092
2005101861101008810759211690.506415739920021,126
200610472989411810158711920.492449664420031,196
200710586113691048956612130.466611706520041,028
2008969610011710510161512340.498379254520051,169
200910694101979410459611780.50594227520061,192
201010488106909610358711410.514460999120071,213
201191828380928951710760.480483271420081,234
2012847695921139955910930.511436413520091,178
201389919493999756310990.512283894420101,141
201485838599857651310520.487642585620111,076
2015937610278868852310670.490159325220121,093
2016789510086939754911400.481578947420131,099
201785709487839551410740.4785847320141,052
20187179666888894619740.473305954820151,067
201974717184758145694620161,143
Average0.48225430862017p1,074
Out of State Average2018p974974974974
In State BirthsOut of State Births2019974974974
20001031380.0368574220201,0461,0221,007
20011055380.036018957320211,0421,014985
20021084420.038745387520221,0221,007989
20031147490.042720139520231,0121,005994
2004980490.0520241,0191,008989
20051106630.0569620253
20061131610.0539345712
20071160520.0448275862
20081160740.0637931034
20091129490.04340124
20101085560.0516129032
20111024520.05078125
20121053400.0379867047
20131036630.0608108108
2014998540.0541082164
20151032350.0339147287
20161085580.0534562212
20171036381086.7152835805
201891955963.9877853383
201943224453.1476858173
0.0489529764
28
High School Options
29
Options Summary
30
RecommendationsElementary
Pursue leased space and Ellsworth Annex renovation to provide short-term capacity when projected to be needed the most – in the next three years
Construct addition to Great Plain to relieve the District of leases in long-term
Middle
Pursue addition to Broadview as a stand-alone academy
From a constructability, and operations stand-point, most prudent option to ensure capacity available when need becomes imperative: 2025-26
High
Construct 9th grade academy to ensure sufficient capacity as soon as is possible
Construct on existing parking because replacement parking areas can be scattered around the site
31
Next Steps
Discuss options and decide on path forward
Refine project options and estimates based on final selections
Pursue bonding for implementation
Develop Ed Specs and prepare state grant applications
Submit grant applications
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