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7/28/2019 21. Risk Assessment of Petroleum System, Plays, Prospects
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21.
Risk Assessment of
Petroleum System, Playsand Prospects
by: Awang Harun Satyana
INDONESIAN PETROLEUM ASSOCIATION (IPA)
REGULAR COURSE, SOLO – CENTRAL JAVA, 4-8 JUNE 2012
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Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG)World Petroleum Council (WPC)Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers (SPEE)
Risk : the probability of loss or failure
As “risk” is generally associated with the negative
outcome, the term “chance” is preferred for general
usage to describe the probability of a discrete event
occurring.
2007 definition
Uncertainty : the range of possible outcomes in a series
of estimates. For recoverable resource assessments, the
range of uncertainty reflects a reasonable range of
estimated potentially recoverable quantities for an
individual accumulation or a project.
Risk and Uncertainty
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Play Assessment – Projection of undiscovered potential
for family of prospects, taking into account shared(regional) geologic controls
ISSUES: Regional trends can overlook local complexities.
Prospect Assessment – Projection of undiscovered
potential for individual prospects, taking into account
(local) feature-specific complexities
ISSUES: Multiple, stand-alone evalutions can overlook shared regional
controls. Often only top prospects are evaluated.
Integrated Assessment – Projection of undiscovered
potential for family of prospects, taking into account both
shared (regional) controls among prospects and (local)
specific complexities of individual prospects
Assessment Scale – Definitions and Issues
Hood and Stabell (2006)
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Prospect Generation
Wildcat Drilling
Discovery, Appraisal,
Field Development
Field
Recovery
Abandonment
Optimization Enhanced
Decline, +
+ +
Basin Analysis
Play Assessment
Prospect
Assessment
Reserves
Assessment
Exploration
Appraisal
Development
Production
Assessment through the Upstream
Sykes et al. (2006)
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“A group of leads and prospects, and possiblyoil and/or gas fields, all having similar geologic
origins -- a family of geologically similar traps.”
PLAY CHARACTERISTICS: ATTRIBUTES OF
CONSTITUENT PROSPECTS & FIELDS
• Common Source Rock, HC-type, migration history;
• Similar Reservoir Rock (depositional origin, production characteristics);
• Similar Structural configuration, trap type, structural history;
• Generally trapped by common master seal;
• Prospects form a coherent lognormal Field-size Distribution
Rose (2006)
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Risk Assessment (1)
• Risk assessment assigns a probability of success.
• In our assessment process, we evaluate four different concepts of exploration as a function of the degree of knowledge about the specific
project: basin framework, petroleum system framework, play, and prospect.
• Basin Framework Is there a volume of sedimentary rocks capable of
containing potential ingredients of a working “hydrocarbon machine”:
source, reservoir, trap and seal, and proper timing and migration? This
assessment is a screening device only, and does not include economic
considerations.
• Petroleum System Framework The petroleum system framework is
defined as a volume of sedimentary rocks containing hydrocarbons and
charged by a single source rock. The definition requires manifestations of
hydrocarbons (seeps, shows, or a producing well) and is applicable in many
frontier basins only by analogy. Recognition of an active petroleum system
also serves only as a screening device because it carries no volumetric
(and therefore, no economic) value.Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
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Risk Assessment (2)
• Play In our definition, the play is the elemental part of a petroleum system,and is recognized as having one or more accumulations of hydrocarbons
identified by a common geological character of reservoir, trap, and seal;
timing and migration; preservation; a common engineering character of
location, environment, and fluid and flow properties; or a combination of
these. Individual plays, therefore, have unique geological and engineering
features, and can be used as a basis for economic characterization. In our
assessment process, we evaluate four different concepts of exploration as a
function of the degree of knowledge about the specific project: basin
framework, petroleum system framework, play, and prospect.
• Prospect Prospect represents an individual, potential accumulation. Each
prospect is perceived as belonging to an individual play, characterized by
risk components and a probabilistic range distribution of potential
hydrocarbon volumes within its trap confines.
Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
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Risk Assessment (3)
• Within the evaluation process, the risk considered is geologic risk; i.e., therisk that a producible hydrocarbon accumulation exists. We consider a
producible accumulation to be one capable of testing a stabilized flow of
hydrocarbons. Geologic risk is assessed by considering the probability that
the following four independent factors of the play concept exist.
– (1) Presence of mature source rock (Psource )
– (2) Presence of reservoir rock (Preservoir )
– (3) Presence of a trap (Ptrap)
– (4) Play dynamics (Pdynamics ) or the appropriate iming of trap formation
relative to timing of migration, pathways for migration of hydrocarbons from the
source to the reservoir, and preservation of hydrocarbons to the present day.
• The probability of geologic success (Pg) is obtained by multiplying the
probabilities of occurrence of each of the four factors of the play concept.
Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
Pg = Psource x Preservoir x Ptrap x Pdynamics
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Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
Petroleum System and Risk Analysis
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Risk Assessment Computation
Probability of
HC Discovery=
Probability
of HCSource
xProbability
of ReservoirQuality
xProbability
of TrapIntegrity
xProbability of
Timing andMigration
For any Risk Factor, the “weakest”element determines the risk
< 0.30 Risk Factor contains unfavourable elements
0.30 – 0.50 One or more elements questionable
0.50 Elements unknown or no definitive data (Neutral)
0.50 – 0.70 All elements at least encouraging to favorable
>0.70 All elements well documented and encouraging to favorable
Geology Risk Factor = 1 / Probability of HC Discovery
Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
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Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
Risk
Assessment
Checklist
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Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
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Otis and Schneidermann (1997)
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For a hydrocarbon accumulation to be present and recoverable, nine
independent geologic elements must be adequate to the degree that
the Assessment Minimum volume of hc’s can be produced
Trap-Migration Timing - did the trap exist when the migration occurred?
Migration Pathways - are there paths along which the hc’s can move to the trap?
Source Maturation - is the source rock sufficiently mature to generate hc’s?
Source Richness - is there source lithology with sufficient TOC to generate hc’s?
Hydrocarbon Recovery- can hc’s be recovered from the reservoir?
Reservoir Quality - does the reservoir have suitably high N/G and porosity?
Reservoir Facies - is there a suitable reservoir lithology in the trap?
Trap Seal - is there a means for retaining hc’s in the trap?
Trap Closure - is there a geologic configuration capable of retaining hc’s?
Independent Geologic Risk Factors
Sykes et al. (2006)
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BAD NEWS NEUTRAL GOOD NEWS
HIGH 0-.2 X .8- 1
MEDIUM .2-.4 .4-.6 .6-.8
LOW .4-.5 .5 .5-.6
Risk Severity
C O N F I D E N C E
Chance of AdequacyLevel of
geologic
understanding
Good quality,
definitive
data-sets
Poor quality,
ambiguous
data-sets
Negativeindications
predominate
Positiveindications
predominate
Risk Matrix
Sykes et al. (2006)
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example
Petronas Carigali (2006)
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BPMIGAS (2010)
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Type I 1
Type II 1
Type III 1
Type IV 0.063
0 – 0.5 0.0625
0.5 – 1 0.25
1 – 2 0.5
2 – 4 0.75
>4 1
Unmatured 0.0625
Early Mature 0.5
Mature 1
Over Mature 0.125
Well 1
Field 0.5
Assessment (A+B+C+D)/4
SOURCE ASSESSMENT
Type Of Kerogen (A):
Source Rock Maturity In fetch Area TOC (B):
Source Rock Maturity (C):
Source Rock Maturity in Fetch Area Based on Well (D):
BPMIGAS (2010)
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Shallow Marine Blangket Proximal 0.95
Shallow Marine Blangket Middle 0.85
Shallow Marine Blangket Distal 0.75
Coastal, Deltaic, Tidal Proximal 0.9
Coastal, Deltaic, Tidal Middle 0.8
Coastal, Deltaic, Tidal Distal 0.75
SUBMARINE FAN Proximal 0.75
SUBMARINE FAN Middle 0.675
SUBMARINE FAN Distal 0.55
Reef With Karstifikasi Process Back Reef 0.9
Reef With Karstifikasi Process Core Reef 0.8
Reef With Karstifikasi Process Fore Reef 0.7
Reef Without Karstifikasi Process Back Reef 0.9
Reef Without Karstifikasi Process Core Reef 0.8
Reef With Karstifikasi Process Fore Reef 0.7
Platform With Karstifikasi Process Proximal 0.7
Platform With Karstifikasi Process Middle 0.6
Platform With Karstifikasi Process Distal 0.5
Reef Without Karstifikasi Process Proximal 0.7
Reef Without Karstifikasi Process Middle 0.6
Reef Without Karstifikasi Process Distal 0.5
Lacustrine Deltaic Proximal 0.8
Lacustrine Deltaic Middle 0.7
Lacustrine Deltaic Distal 0.6
Alluvial Fan, Braided Stream, Meandering
Channel Proximal 0.8
Alluvial Fan, Braided Stream, Meandering
Channel Middle 0.7
Alluvial Fan, Braided Stream, Meandering
Channel Distal 0.6
Eolian Proximal 0.9
Eolian Middle 0.8
Eolian Distal 0.7
Fractured Basement & Fractured Porous Lava
Proximal 0.5
Fractured Basement & Fractured Porous Lava
Middle 0.45
Fractured Basement & Fractured Porous Lava
Distal0.4
RESERVOIR
ASSESSMENT
Reservoir Depositional
Environment Type and Position
(A) :
BPMIGAS (2010)
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SEISMIC ANALYSIS 0.4
LOG CHARACTERISTIC 0.5
COMBINE LOG & SEISMIC 0.7
COMBINE LOG & CORE 0.9
SEISMIC ANALYSIS KARST 0.75
LOG CHARACTERISTIC KARST 0.75
COMBINE LOG & SEISMIC KARST 0.75
COMBINE LOG & CORE KARST 0.75
SEISMIC ANALYSIS NON KARST 0.0625
LOG CHARACTERISTIC NON KARST 0.0625
COMBINE LOG & SEISMIC NON KARST 0.0625
COMBINE LOG & CORE NON KARST 0.0625
SANDSTONES 0.9
CARBONATES 0.9
CLASTIC CARBONATES 0.5
VULCANOCLASTICS 0.5
CONGLOMERATE 0.5
FRACTURED META SEDIMEN 0.4
FRACTURED METAMORF 0.4FRACTURED IGNEOUS ROCKS 0.4
COAL 0.2
OTHERS 0.2
Yes 0.99
No 0.0625
1% – 10% 0.5
10% – 20% 0.9
> 20% 0.99
Well 1
Field 0.5
1 – 3 KM 0.9
3 – 4 KM 0.7
> 4 KM 0.6
Proven 1
No Proven 0.0625
((A*B)+C+D+E+F+G+H)/7
RESERVOIR
ASSESSMENT
Assessment
Reservoir Porosity (E):
Reservoir Porosity Data From (F):
Estimated Depth Of Reservoirs
(G)
Reservoir Depositional
Environment defined by (B):
Reservoir Lithology (C):
Reservoir Fracture (D):
Reservoirs Proven In Well (H)
BPMIGAS (2010)
reservoir assessment (cont’d)
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2D 0.7
3D 0.9
<1980 0.6
1980 – 2000 0.7
2000 – 2005 0.8
>2005 0.9
0 – 0.5 M 0.99
0.5 – 1 KM 0.99
1 – 2 KM 0.8
2 – 4 KM 0.7
4 – 8 KM 0.6
>8 KM 0.5
0 – 5 0.6
5 – 10 0.7
10 – 15 0.8
15 – 20 0.9
>20 0.99
<1980 0.6
1980 – 2000 0.7
2000 – 2005 0.8
>2005 0.9
<1980 0.6
1980 – 2000 0.7
2000 – 2005 0.8
>2005 0.9
Gravity
Multybeam
Sattelite Image
CSEM
IPDS
Poor 0.0625
Fair 0.5
Good 0.8
Excellent 0.9
Poor 0.0625
Fair 0.5
Good 0.8
Excellent 0.9
Assessment ((A*B)+C+D+E+F+H+I)/7
TRAP
ASSESSMENT
Trap Data Seismic Type (A) :
Trap Data Seismic Year
Acquisition (B) :
Trap Data Seismic Line Spacing
(C):
Trap Data Seismic Number of
Seismic Line (D):
Trap Data Seismic Year
Reprocessing (E) :
Trap Data Seismic Year Advance
Reprocessing (F) :
Trap Others Data Type (G) :
Trap Others Data Integrity With
Seismic Data (H):
Trap Closure Seismic Quality (I):
BPMIGAS (2010)
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Very Near (0 – 2 KM) 0.99
Near (2 – 5 KM) 0.9
Middle (5 – 10 KM) 0.8
Long (10 – 20 KM) 0.6
Very Long (>20KM) 0.4
1 0.7
2 0.75
3 0.8
4 0.85>4 0.9
Vertikal 0.8
Lateral 0.8
Vertical & Lateral 0.99
Proven 1
UnProven 0.0625
No Pathways 0
Yes 0.99
No 0.0625
Yes 0.99
No 0.0625
Yes 0.99
No 0.0625
Yes 0.99
No 0.0625
Yes 0.99
No 0.0625
Assessment (A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H+I)/9
DYNAMIC
ASSESSMENT
Dynamics Migration Pathways
Position Of Trap With Respect To
Kitchen/Fetch Area (A)
Dynamics Migration Pathways
Amount Of Source Rock In The
Oil Window Within Fetch Area
(B)
Dynamics Migration Pathways (C)
:
Dynamic Migration Pathways
Connection Of Pathways to
Reservoir (D):
Dynamics Preservation /
Segregation Post Entrapment
Tectonism Or Faulting (E):
Dynamics Preservation /
Segregation On Displacement of
Oil By Water or gas (F) :
Dynamics Preservation /
Segregation On Biodegradation
(G) :
Dynamics Preservation /
Segregation Thermal Cracking
(H):
Dynamics Preservation /
Segregation Preferential Migration
Of Gas (I):
BPMIGAS (2010)
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PRMS (2007)
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PRMS (2007)
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RESOURCES & RESERVES CLASSIFICATION
PRMS (2007)
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Petronas Carigali (2006)
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Petronas Carigali (2006)