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21st Century Commuting Patterns
How is the Washington Area Different
American Dream Coalition Alan E. Pisarski Reston Va.Dec. 4, 2008
We are a major NATIONAL region
Fairfax at 1 million = Richmond metro area
Northern Va. at 2 million+ is a major national metro area by itself (= Pittsburgh; approaching Baltimore
metro area )
Attributes of the No Va Commuting World
Wealth and stability Multi-worker households A leader in carpooling More transit than expected Fewer autos/commuter than all but
NY Gov’t still focused on center Highest level of cross-county
commutes
That’s why travel times stink
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
US DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW
< 20 MINUTES > 60 MINUTES
25.3 33.4 25.3 29.3 30.8 33.6 37.1 AV TT
And why we get up so early
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
USA DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW
5AM - 6AM
PRE 5
Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income - 2001
01000
20003000
40005000
6000
<
$10K
10K - < $20K
20K - < $30K
30K - < $40K
40K - < $50K
50K - < $60K
60K - < $70K
70K - < $80K
80K+
USA No Va
HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE!
WE CAN DO IT ----
IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER!
HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE!
WE CAN DO IT ----
IF WE ALL PULL TOGETHER!WE ARE ALMOST THERE!
We are rich because we work
median income vs workers/hh
40,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000110,000120,000
1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
workers per household
$
LOU
PW
FFX
MSA
ARLALX
VA
USA
Lots of cars
% HOUSEHOLDS WITHOUT VEHICLES
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
USA VA DCMSA
ALX ARL FFX LOU PW
2007
Mode shares 2007
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
US DCMSA
ARL ALX FFX LOU PW
Worked at home
bike, other
Walked
Transit
4 carpool
3 carpool
2-carpool
Drove alone
Non-SOV mode shares 2007
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
US DCMSA
ARL ALX FFX LOU PW
Worked at home
bike, other
Walked
Transit
4 carpool
3 carpool
2-carpool
If NOVA Were Separate Region
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
New York Chicago SanFrancisco
Washington,DC
Boston Northern VA Philadelphia Santa Clara
Stolen from Bob Dunphy via Bob Chase
Va leads the nation in commuting out of residence county (Md #2)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
US VA DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW
LV STATE LV COUNTY STAY IN STATE
Workers are our biggest export
workers exported each day
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
ARL ALX FFX LOU PW
14% 10%
43%
13%20%
WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX!
1. Jobs rose and created balance with workers
2. Live/work; 85% of new workers3. BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL
REMAINING JOBS
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
job deficit exports imports
workers-jobs workers-l/w jobs-l/w
1980
1990
2000
Nice to lead the nation in something
Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp0 - 2525 - 100
N
EW
S
County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000
Nice to lead the nation in something
Cnty_cnty_wrkrflow.shp0 - 2525 - 100
N
EW
S
County-to-County Worker Flow Percentage: 2000
Greater Mobility Makes Metro Areas Smaller And Bigger
SMALLER Easier Access to
Jobs to Services Customer
Markets More affordable
homes near work
BIGGER Distant areas
now part of economic engine
Operate in world markets as a bigger player
The Challenge Reaching skilled workers will be the
key challenge for employers Employers will go where the skilled
workers are or where they want to be Competition will be amenities-based Good transportation will be one of the
amenities Metro areas that can meet this
challenge will be the big winners
US DC MSA ARL ALX FFX LOU PW
Total: 139,259,684 2,783,114 127,464 80,884 544,300 146,544 190,924
Car, truck, or van: 120,442,188 2,172,552 79,031 56,973 460,479 129,719 167,456
Drove alone 105,954,656 1,878,645 68,593 51,477 404,899 114,130 133,935
Carpooled: 14,487,532 293,907 10,438 5,496 55,580 15,589 33,521
2-carpool 11,139,037 211,378 8,446 4,325 41,612 11,183 19,255
3 carpool 1,963,018 48,911 1,361 317 9,319 2,033 8,906
4 carpool 1,385,477 33,618 631 854 4,649 2,373 5,360
Transit 6,800,512 371,137 33,176 18,576 42,574 2,472 8,993
Walked 3,954,210 82,419 6,900 1,657 9,373 2,095 3,085
bike, other 2,386,152 33,682 2,680 1,143 6,122 2,446 2,700
Worked at home 5,676,622 123,324 5,677 2,535 25,752 9,812 8,690
Total: 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Car, truck, or van: 86.49% 78.06% 62.00% 70.44% 84.60% 88.52% 87.71%
Drove alone 76.08% 67.50% 53.81% 63.64% 74.39% 77.88% 70.15%
Carpooled: 10.40% 10.56% 8.19% 6.79% 10.21% 10.64% 17.56%
2-carpool 8.00% 7.60% 6.63% 5.35% 7.65% 7.63% 10.09%
3 carpool 1.41% 1.76% 1.07% 0.39% 1.71% 1.39% 4.66%
4 carpool 0.99% 1.21% 0.50% 1.06% 0.85% 1.62% 2.81%
Transit 4.88% 13.34% 26.03% 22.97% 7.82% 1.69% 4.71%
Walked 2.84% 2.96% 5.41% 2.05% 1.72% 1.43% 1.62%
bike, other 1.71% 1.21% 2.10% 1.41% 1.12% 1.67% 1.41%
Worked at home 4.08% 4.43% 4.45% 3.13% 4.73% 6.70% 4.55%
CP + T 15.29% 23.90% 34.22% 29.76% 18.03% 12.32% 22.27%
In This New World the Great Issue Will Be Skilled Workers
• finding skilled workers will be the key concern of business.
• they will go where those people are;
• or, go where those people want to be!
• Metro areas who can provide this resource will be big winners!
• Minorities and Immigrants will be a crucial part of the work force
THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENTLocation, Amenities, Flexibility
The increases in services in the economy will permit more population to act on location preferences as workers and employers are less tied to resources and more attracted by amenities.
Areas of the country will compete for workers on the basis of life-style, climate, and ease of living. Good transportation will be one of the competitive amenities.
Employers will be forced to be more flexible in schedules and benefits to attract workers.
Parsing the sprawl topic
An ideal gov. program – no definition of problem or measures of success!
Amorphous, ill defined goals – What is public and what is private? What is federal and what is local gov.? Role of transportation Public preferences
“Efficiency” in transportation;BEWARE! A Very Dangerous Word THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT? Transit is a more “efficient” vehicle! The key to all transportation is the efficiency of
the users – passengers and freight – not the vehicles
That’s why trucks not trains – cars not buses One colossal pizza delivery per night per
neighborhood is “efficient”!
THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!
“BLAMING TRANSPORTATION FOR THE PROBLEMS OF SPRAWL
IS LIKE BLAMING HEALTH CARE FOR THE PROBLEMS OF OLD AGE.”Brad Mallory, Sec DOT, Pa.
The sprawl debate diverts us from the real issues
Lack of workers/skilled workers Mainstreaming minorities Safety Serving an aging population Responding to pressures of time enhancing economic opportunities Global competitiveness
% LEAVING COUNTY TO WORK
1990 U.S. 23.9%
2000 U.S. 26.7% Va. 52%
2007 U.S. 27.4% Va. 52.5%
COMMUTERS SPRAWL? ACCESS? OCCUPATIONS
?
The great loss from congestion is not the extra three minutes it takes to get home
HOUSEHOLDS It’s the decline in
the number of jobs I could reach in ½ hr!
It’s the decline in the number of affordable homes accessible to my work!
It’s the decline in the assurance of arriving on time!
BUSINESSES It’s the decline in the
number of workers within ½ hr of my employment site!
It’s the decline in the number of suppliers & customers within ½ hr of my business!
It’s the decline in ship- ment reliability!
THE FAIRFAX STORY 1
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1980 1990 2000
JOBS WORKERS
THE FAIRFAX STORY 2
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1980 1990 2000
JOBS LIVE/WORK WORKERS
THE FAIRFAX STORY 3
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1980 1990 2000
JOBS LIVE/WORK
WORKERS EXPORTS
THE FAIRFAX STORY 4
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1980 1990 2000
JOBS LIVE/WORK WORKERS
EXPORTS IMPORTS
Where did residents work? Added 47,000
new workers 40,000 Workers
stayed in County 15,000 fewer
toward center 21,000 more
toward edge & ring
-50,0000
50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000
2000
chg 90-00
WHAT HAPPENED IN FAIRFAX!
1. Jobs rose and created balance with workers
2. Live/work; 85% of new workers3. BUT IMPORTS BOOMED TO FILL
REMAINING JOBS
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
job deficit exports imports
workers-jobs workers-l/w jobs-l/w
1980
1990
2000
Arlington – not quite perfect yet!
0
510
15
2025
30
35
4045
50
% WORK IN COUNTY %WORK IN CENTER % WORK IN VA
1990
2000
Transportation Makes Cities Both Smaller and Bigger
Smaller in that the times to traverse distances are reduced
Bigger in that a city knitted together with effective transportation acts bigger economically socially
A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE
Problems More Operable Today The Resources to Respond are
there People, Technology, Political &
Financial
MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY
MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO FOCUS RESOURCES
A VERY POSITIVE FUTURE
Problems More Operable Today The Resources to Respond are
there People, Technology, Political &
Financial
MUST RECOGNIZE CENTRAL ROLE OF MOBILITY IN OUR SOCIETY
MUST BE WILLING TO ACT TO FOCUS RESOURCES
The Demographic Story a New Phase in American Commuting
1. The Commuting in America series has been the history of the working years of the baby boom generation
2. The Boomers are now moving off stage creating a new phase in American commuting.
3. The key will be where will the new workers come from?
4. Advent of the immigrant workforce will be just one of the challenging concerns
#1 GREAT INCREASES IN WORKERS LEAVING HOME COUNTIES TO WORK
1990 23.9% of workers left home county
2000 26.7% (2007 almost 28%) 90’s - 13.2 meg. new Workers 51%
Left home county (6.7 Meg.) 00’s - Of 5 meg. new workers 55%
left home county (2.6 Meg.) Wash DC Area leads nation!
