Daily Market Outlook 22 Jun 2016

1

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Cautious mood

Expect the SET to edge higher today supported by broadly positive local factors in light of fragile sentiment due to the neck-to-neck Brexit vote on Thursday. An opinion poll published on Tuesday showed the "Remain" campaign lead had shrunk. Yellen’s prudent tone further added to a cautious mood. Locally, the TCC’s optimistic view about the Thai economy in 2H16, the FTI’s confidence improvement in May and upbeat auto reports in May are very encouraging.

Pick of the day: BDMS (Bt23.90; AWS; NR; TP Bloomberg Bt25.42) Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL is expected to enjoy

solid earnings growth, bolstered by its continuous expansion

and the fact that the country is one of the key destinations for

healthcare tourists whom demand high quality services and

reasonable prices. Currently, BDMS has 43 hospitals under its

six hospital brands and aims to increase to 50 hospitals by

2020 with one new greenfield project in active, namely

Bangkok Hospital Surat, which is set to commence operation

in 2017. The move is made in a bid to enhance its ability to

provide services in a wider area. In addition, the company is

on the path of upgrading its nine hub hospitals into Centers of

Excellence, expected to be completed by mid 2018, in order to

attract more international patients hoping to boost the revenue

proportion of these patients to 40% in the long term, from a

current 31%. According to Bloomberg consensus, BDMS’

earnings are estimated to grow 13.1% in 2016 and 16.3% in

2017. BDMS’s price pattern has been in a major uptrend for

some time with a weekly and monthly buy signal. The share,

however, is consolidating in the short term with a daily sell

signal. If the share manages to close above Bt24.10 on any

day, a daily buy signal will occur, indicating that the short-term

consolidation is over. Then, the share is likely to make a new

high at Bt28.25. (Resistance: 24.00, 24.10, 24.30; Support:

23.80, 23.60, 23.50) Local issue Street anticipates unchanged policy rate. According to

a Reuter poll, all 27 economists forecast the Monetary

Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain one-day repurchase

rate unchanged at 1.5% at their meeting today, in spite of

slow economic recovery, as further cuts may have little

impact to help domestic activity but instead add risks to

financial stability. The street also believes the BoT is

unlikely to move before a referendum on British

membership in the EU tomorrow. (Bangkok Post)

TCC expects improvement in 2H16. The Thai Chamber

of Commerce (TCC) estimates the economy would

expand faster with a 3.3% growth rate in the latter half on

the back of a 2.6% rise in exports and 0.9% inflation, while

farmers would earn more income and the effects of

stimulus measures take hold. Full-year economic growth

for 2016 would be 3.2-3.5% while exports would expand

by 0.8% and inflation would be at 0.4%. (Bangkok Post)

Major Indices Close Chg %Chg

SET 1,430.80 +8.8 +0.6

SET50 907.65 +6.6 +0.7

SET P/E (x) 21.8

SET P/BV (x) 1.8

SET Div. Yield (%) 3.3

Dow Jones 17,829.73 +24.9 +0.1

S&P 500 2,088.90 +5.7 +0.3

NASDAQ 4,843.76 +6.6 +0.1

UK 6,226.55 +22.6 +0.4

Germany 10,015.54 +53.5 +0.5

France 4,367.24 +26.5 +0.6

Japan 16,169.11 +203.8 +1.3

South Korea 1,982.70 +1.6 +0.1

Hong Kong 20,668.44 +158.2 +0.8

China 2,878.90 -9.9 -0.3

Taiwan 8,684.85 +58.9 +0.7

Singapore 2,789.45 -11.4 -0.4

Malaysia 1,637.69 +3.5 +0.2

Indonesia 4,878.71 +15.2 +0.3

Philippines 7,767.23 +101.9 +1.3

Trading Summary Buy Sell Net

Institution 5,089 3,634 1,455

Proprietary 4,931 4,913 19

Foreign 10,779 10,924 -144

Individuals 27,349 28,678 -1,329

Total Trading Value 48,148 Btmn

Most Active Value Value Close %Chg

TRUE 2,910 7.25 2.1 BANPU 1,948 13.80 3.8 AOT 1,932 386.00 0.3 IVL 1,925 32.75 4.0 TASCO 1,451 28.00 0.0

Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg

US Crude 48.85 -0.5 -1.1

Brent Crude 50.62 -0.0 -0.1

Gold 1272.50 -19.6 -1.5

FX Rates Close Chg %Chg

USD/THB 35.09 +0.0 +0.1

EUR/USD 1.12 -0.0 -0.0

USD/JPY 111.78 +0.3 +0.3

USD/CNY 6.50 +0.0 +0.0

Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg

Technical picks (support & resistance)

HMPRO (S: 9.25, R: 10.20); SAMTEL (S: 14.20, R: 15.80); PLANB (S: 5.05, R: 5.75); SET (S: 1,417, R: 1,447)

Thailand Research Department

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041

Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090

Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 02 680 5077

Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056

Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094

Daily Market Outlook 22 Jun 2016

2

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Farmers’ aid scheme for new season gets a nod. The cabinet yesterday

approved a Bt45.6bn farmers’ assistance scheme for the 2016-2017 season.

The scheme includes Bt1,000 a rai in cash handouts on a maximum of 10 rai

per household to rice farmers, debt repayment suspension period of two years

offered to BAAC’s customers whom borrow no more than Bt500,000, a farmers’

training program, as well as crop insurance subsidies provided jointly by the

government and the BAAC. (Bangkok Post)

Confidence on Thai industries rose in May. Federation of Thai Industries

said the Thai Industries Sentiment Index rose to 86.4 in May from 85 in April

thanks to reduced concern over the drought, increasing orders of education-

related products in May, coupled with government stimulus policies. The

forward-looking industries sentiment index over the next three months also rose

from 97.2 in April to 98.7 in May ahead of activities on government infrastructure

investment. (Bangkok Post)

Auto output and sales rose in May. Federation of Thai Industries reported

automobile production in May surged 24.7% YoY to 168,394 units. Domestic

car sales in May improved 15.9% YoY to 66,019 units, while the export of

finished cars in May edged up 11.9% YoY to 99,547 units with value soared

26.3% to Bt54.99bn thanks to a higher sales of PPV cars. (Bangkok Post)

Global issues The latest poll showed the campaign for Britain to stay in the EU has lost

some of its lead ahead of Thursday's referendum on EU membership. The

telephone poll, which was conducted by Survation for spread-betting firm IG on

Monday, put support for "In" at 45%, ahead of "Out" on 44%, IG said.

Survation's previous survey, published late on Saturday, had shown "In" on

45%, 3 points ahead of "Out". (Reuters)

Yellen: Fed cautious on rates due to US hiring slowdown, Brexit: Federal

Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave regularly scheduled testimony on Tuesday to

the US Senate Banking Committee and expressed general optimism about the

economy and played down the risk of a recession. She acknowledged that US

job hiring lost momentum of improvement in the last several months and said

the Fed would be cautious about interest rate increases until it is clear the job

market is holding up. She acknowledged that immediate risks, like the potential

fallout from Britain's 23 Jun vote on whether to leave the EU, could darken the

US economic outlook. (Reuters)

Top German court clears ECB's OMT bond buying scheme: Germany's

Constitutional Court rejected on Tuesday a challenge of the ECB's emergency

bond-buying scheme, clearing a never-used crisis fighting tool. Conceived at

the height of Europe's debt crisis, the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT)

programme was launched as part of ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge to

do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro, giving the bank broad powers to

buy the debt of financially strained members. (Reuters)

The dollar rose on Tuesday as investors sold the British pound and the euro

on news that the gap had narrowed in the latest poll on Britain's referendum on

EU membership. The euro fell 0.5% to US$1.1255, holding just above a session

low of US$1.1243. The dollar index rose 0.45% to 94.031. (Reuters)

US Treasury yields rose to one-and-a-half week highs on Tuesday after the

Treasury saw soft demand for a sale of five-year notes and as investors

evaluated whether Britain will vote to remain in the EU on Thursday. Benchmark

10-year notes were last down 9/32 in price to yield 1.699%, up from 1.670%

late on Monday. (Reuters)

Daily Market Outlook 22 Jun 2016

3

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USA Wall Street shares rose on Tuesday, led by gains in technology shares as

Fed Chair Janet Yellen was optimistic about the economy and played down the

risk of a recession, while concern over the upcoming British referendum

remained subdued. (Reuters)

Europe European shares rose on Tuesday as worries that British would choose to

leave the European Union eased, although caution prevailed over what is

expected to be a close vote. (Reuters)

German investor sentiment improved unexpectedly in June, reflecting their

confidence in the resilience of Europe's largest economy despite an uncertain

global backdrop, a survey by think tank ZEW showed on Tuesday. ZEW said

its monthly survey showed a rise in its economic sentiment index to 19.2 points

in June from 6.4 the previous month. That compared with the Reuters

consensus forecast for a fall to 4.7. (Reuters)

Asia Campaigning for an election to Japan's upper house of parliament begins

on Wednesday. PM Shinzo Abe's coalition is in no danger of losing power in

the election but he needs a solid win to keep his LDP lawmakers in line and

perhaps stay on another three years after his tenure as LDP president expires

in 2018. Abe is casting the 10 Jul election for half the seats in the 242-member

chamber as a referendum on his decision to delay a planned hike in an

unpopular sales tax and his "Abenomics" recipe of hyper-easy monetary policy,

spending and reform. (Reuters)

China's manufacturing sector activity contracted in June, indicating

worsening conditions after official data for May showed signs of stabilisation.

The Minxin Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Index dropped to a four-month

low of 43.2 in June compared with the previous month's reading of 45.8.

(Reuters)

Defaults in China's domestic bond markets are likely to continue rising as

corporate profitability remains under pressure and debt burdens increase, rating

agency S&P Global said on Tuesday. The number of bond defaults in the year

to date period has already exceeded the total for all of 2015, with more than 20

bonds in default after more than 10 issuers missed their interest or principal

payments. (Reuters)

Commodities Oil prices dipped on Tuesday on profit taking after a two-day rally, then rose

in post-settlement trade after data showing a larger-than-expected draw in US

crude stockpiles. Crude inventories fell by 5.2mn barrels last week, the

American Petroleum Institute (API) said. The trade group's figures were triple

the draw of 1.7mn barrels forecast by analysts. The US EIA will issue official

stockpiles data on Wednesday. Brent crude futures settled down 3 cents at

US$50.62 a barrel, after falling more than US$1 to a session low of US$49.46.

The contract had gained 7% in the last two sessions. US crude futures' expiring

July front-month contract closed down 52 cents (-1%) at US$48.85 a barrel.

(Reuters)

Gold fell to a 10-day low on Tuesday as global shares rose and expectations

that Britain could vote to leave the EU receded. Bullion extended losses after

US Fed Chair Janet Yellen said global risks and a US hiring slowdown warrant

a cautious approach to raising interest rate. Spot gold fell as much as 1.9% to

a low of US$1,265.40 an ounce and was down 1.6% at US$1,269.80. US gold

settled down 1.5% at US$1,272.50. (Reuters)

Daily Market Outlook 22 Jun 2016

4

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Date Regions

20-Jun-16 JP

21-Jun-16 JP

21-Jun-16 EU

21-Jun-16 US

22-Jun-16 EU

22-Jun-16 EU

23-Jun-16 GB

23-Jun-16 US

23-Jun-16 EU

24-Jun-16 US Durable Goods Orders (May)

Economic Indicators

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Markit PMI Composite (Jun)

Non-monetary Policy's ECB Meeting

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Apr)

Targeted LTRO

EU Referendum

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)

Markit PMI Composite (Jun)

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Jun)

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri

1 2 3

6 7 8 9 10XD

CTARAF

IMPACT

KPNPF

MJLF

XD

TCB

TR

WHABT

XD

LHSC

QHPF

13 14 15 16 17XD

LHK

XD

WHAPF

20 21 22 23 24XD

TTTM

27 28 29 30

Jun-16

5

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CG Rating

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2015.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EGCO GRAMMYHANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINTMONO NKI PHOL PPS PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMARTSAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SE-ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO TKT TMBTOP VGI WACOAL

AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP BMCL BOL BROOKBWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTADEMCO ECF EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICCICHI INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK MC MEGAMFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC OISHI OTO PAP PDI PEPG PJW PM PPP PR PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q-CON QH RS S&JSABINA SAMCO SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT SNPSPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSPTCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TKTKS TMI TMILL TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWPC UAC UT UVVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICOVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO

2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH AMARIN AP APCOAQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHIBKD BTNC CBG CGD CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSCCSP CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE FOCUS FORTHFPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECHIEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGIKKC KTIS KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR MAKROMATCH MATI MBKET M-CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTIMTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDGPF PICO PL PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN SCP SEAOIL SIRISKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPISUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TICTIW TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI UP UPFUPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN XO

Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)

6

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CG Rating

ขอมล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบรษทจดทะเบยน

ระดบ 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG

ระดบ 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO

ระดบ 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO

ระดบ 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA

ระดบ 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG

ระดบ 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP

ไมเปดเผยหรอไมมนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT WORKหมายเหตระดบ 1 : มนโยบายระดบ 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณระดบ 3 : มมาตรการปองกน ซงทง 2 กรณ ถอเปนผลการประเมนในระดบเดยวกน

3A : บรษทมการประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค3B : บรษทมค ามน และนโยบายของบรษท แตมไดประกาศเจตนารมณเขารวมโครงการ CAC หรอภาค

ระดบ 4 : ไดรบการรบรองระดบ 5 : ขยายผลสผท เกยวของ

7

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Contact

Branch Address Phone Fax

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Pathumwan Bangkok 10330

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Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand

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Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110

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Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700

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Nonthaburi 11120

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District, Rayong Province 21000

038-808200 038-807200

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40000

043-334-700 043-334-799

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20000

038-053-858 038-784-090

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District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000

038-981-587 038-981-591