23 March, 2018 - Centre for Aviation · 23 March, 2018 Share your thoughts #CAPAEvents Big Picture Keynote CAPA Aviation Outlook ... Domestic Growth 2018 2017 CBR-ADL 3.3% 292,200

23 March, 2018

Share your thoughts #CAPAEvents

Big Picture Keynote

CAPA Aviation Outlook

Peter HarbisonExecutive Chairman, CAPA – Centre for Aviation


Oil prices are important drivers

Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation & Oil Markets.

One year change (USD) Five year change (USD)

Jet fuel prices have risen almost 30% in the past 12 months (with the peak being over 40% in December)

Brent Price at USD69.47, 22-Mar-2018

(No-one ever predicted prices would would go to USD $100 per barrel)


130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

Passe

nger y

ield

/ Load F

acto

r / Passe

nger

gro

wth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Ba

rre

l p

rice

($

)

10%

8%

6%

4%

Airlin

e o

pera

ting p

rofit (E

BIT

)January 2011 = Index 100

$

Passenger growth

Profit

Load factor

Average ticket price

Oil barrel price

Source: IATA Air Transport.

The impact of oil prices


Canberra

Full Service Low Cost

AirlinesDOM 3 1

INT 2 -

RoutesDOM 8 2

INT ~3 -

SeatsDOM 4.410 m 204,500

INT 429,100 -

ASKsDOM 2.697 b 123.165 m

INT 4.037 b -

Canberra in context

~ from 01-May-18 CBR-WLG will no longer operate reducing international routes to two

Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation & OAG. Excludes VN & J2 which operated one flight.

Domestic

International


Canberra


Airlines 3 1

Routes 8 2

Seats 4.4 m 0.2 m

ASKs 2,697 m 123.1 m

Connectivity by airport


Sydney


5 2

45 17

25.0 m 9.8 m

24,315 m 9,622 m

Melbourne


4 2

27 17

22.0 m 10.4 m

23,246 m 11,952 m

~ from 01-May-18 CBR-WLG will no longer operate reducing international routes to two

39 4

60 13

22.3 m 2.0 m

179,123 m 11,258 m

31 4

38 13

12.6 m 2.3 m

94,959 m 12,897 m

Airlines 2 0

Routes ~3 -

Seats 0.1 m -

ASKs 694.9 m -

Do

mes

tic

Inte

rnat

ion

al



Canberra international connectivity

33.6%of Canberra international

passengers had 2 or more transits to reach their

destinationdirect 39,700

one stop 182,300two+ stops 112,600

Source: CAPA – Centre for Aviation & OAG.

National average is only 5.5%


Canberra capacity growth vs 2017(seats)

Domestic Growth 2018 2017

CBR-ADL 3.3% 292,200 282,900

CBR-BNE 3.4% 884,900 855,900

CBR-DBO -53.7% 5,500 11,900

CBR-MEL 3.0% 1,795,900 1,744,000

CBR-NTL -16.9% 24,400 29,400

CBR-OOL 28.8% 103,200 80,100

CBR-PER 8.6% 137,600 126,700

CBR-SYD 1.8% 1,370,100 1,347,400

International Growth 2018 2017

CBR-DOH # 231,600 -

CBR-SIN ^ 55.5% 164,200 105,600

CBR-WLG ~ -66.8% 33,300 100,300

# CBR-DOH operates via SYD in both directions^ from 01-MAY-18 SIN-CBR will operate via SYD~ from 01-May-18 CBR-WLG will no longer operate


Overall seat growth in 2018 will be 0.8%


Canberra air fares are higher

from CBR from MEL from SYD

Adelaide $245.77 $147.12 $200.21

Brisbane $234.88 $205.17 $169.75

Gold Coast $177.02 $155.04 $130.68

Melbourne $212.02 $220.92

Perth $381.25 $347.81 $392.00

Sydney $173.11 $221.58

Canberra $225.05 $194.35


Adelaide $0.26 $0.22 $0.17

Brisbane $0.25 $0.15 $0.23

Gold Coast $0.20 $0.12 $0.19

Melbourne $0.45 $0.31

Perth $0.12 $0.13 $0.12

Sydney $0.70 $0.31

Canberra $0.48 $0.79

Source: Forward Keys, OFX & DistanceCalculator.net.

Average one way fare 2017 Average fare per Km


Lowest fares on the day


Adelaide $377 $127 $172

Brisbane $250 $171 $127

Gold Coast $259 $129 $93

Melbourne $162 $128

Perth $1,019^ $383 $406

Sydney $220 $131

Canberra $162 $220


Adelaide $0.39 $0.19 $0.15

Brisbane $0.27 $0.18 $0.17

Gold Coast $0.29 $0.14 $0.14

Melbourne $0.35 $0.18

Perth $0.33 $0.14 $0.12

Sydney $0.89 $0.18

Canberra $0.35 $0.89

Source: Skyscanner & DistanceCalculator.net. Date of travel 18-19 April. 1 Passenger – Economy.

Return airfare – 18/19 April - Cheapest Average fare per km

^ $646 one stop via Sydney in both directions ($0.21)



3%

9%

17%

7%

-1%

3%

3%

10%

Pax Nights Spend Pax Growth

QLD 2.6m 53.6m $5.3b 3%

TAS 0.3m 4.5m $0.5b 17%

ACT 0.2m 5.1m $0.5b 10%

NSW 4.1m 94.9m $10.4b 9%

VIC 2.8m 66.9m $7.6b 7%

SA 0.4m 10.9m $1.1b 3%

WA 0.9m 27.3m $2.4b 3%

NT 0.3m 3.8m $0.5 -1%

International tourism growth (air)

Source: Tourism Research Australia.

Canberra has 2nd highest pax growth rate


A320neo

Range 6,850 kmTypical seating 150

Narrowbody Long Haul – can transform access to smaller cities

Source: CAPA – Fleet Database & Airbus.

737MAX

Range 5,960 kmTypical seating 220

• The A321neoLR has an extra fuel tank• It can fly approximately 1,000km further than an A321neo,

for a range of over 7,500km – with less than 200 seats• At around the same unit seat cost as much larger aircraft


Long haul narrowbodyopens up new routes

Qantas/Jetstar has 18 extra long range smaller aircraft on order


Long haul narrowbodyopens up new routes

With 18 of these long range narrowbodies, Qantas has many route options



Narrowbody Long Haul - APAC

all orders; 6,290A320neo orders; 5,932

(398) (376) (178) (131)

(72) (60)

(99)

A320neo 47% LCC

(39) (32)

(10)(30) (1)(7)


Narrowbody Long Haul - APAC

(243) (175) (100)

all orders; 5,170737MAX orders; 4,791 737MAX 30% LCC

(4)(8)(30)


Long haul narrowbody opens up new international routes

Potential long haulnarrow body destinations to/from Canberra


Open skies threatened- the value of a liberal aviation policy China-Australia

vsChina-Canada

Australia has open skies:• 10 Chinese airlines• 1.2 million tourists• $5 billion expenditure

Canada has bilat controls• 3 Chinese airlines• 600,000 tourists• $2.5 billion expenditure

0.497

2.332

0.445

1.651

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

On

e W

ay S

eats

(M

illio

ns)

Australia Canada

10.5%difference

29.2%difference


International SOS–CAPA – Centre for Aviation Webinar, 27-Mar-2018


Thankyou!

Documents

23 March, 2018 - Centre for Aviation · 23 March, 2018 Share your thoughts #CAPAEvents Big Picture Keynote CAPA Aviation Outlook ... Domestic Growth 2018 2017 CBR-ADL 3.3% 292,200