Upload
hova
View
33
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Renewable Energy and Security of Supply A view from a TSO. 23.September.2009 Francisco Saraiva. Cigré’s International Colloquium. Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm Role of Electricity Renewable Power Role of the Grid. Security of supply. Competitiveness. Climate change. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
23.September.2009Francisco Saraiva
Renewable Energy and Security of Supply
A view from a TSO
Cigré’s International Colloquium
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 2
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 3
The Key Drivers
100
146 159
2005 2030 2050
TOTAL COST OF ENERGY
100
126138
2005 2030 2050
OIL/GAS IMPORT DEPENDENCY
100
110
95
2005 2030 2050
CO2 EMISSIONS
Security of supply
Climate changeCompetitiveness Business as Usual is unsustainable
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 4
SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Primary energy sources
Adequacy of supply systems
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 5
WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 6
More Energy EFFICIENCY is needed
The Sleeping Giant ….
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 7
Prices highly influenced by numerous factors
(extraction and refining capacity, availability of resources...)
Production’s growth might stop in 10-15 years
Conventional oil reserves. Countries with > 1 Gt oil reserves
Source: BGR
TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: OIL
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 8
Regional distribution of estimated ultimate recovery of conventional natural gas(2007)
Source: BGR
Prices linked to oil
Environmental friendly energy (comparing to coal and oil)
High efficiency of the electricity production technologies using NG (CCGT)
TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: NATURAL GAS
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 9
TRADITIONAL ENERGY SOURCES: COAL
Abundant and worldwide distributed
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) coal will be the primary energy source with the higher growth until 2030
But .... a major CO2 emitter
Proven reserves (10 biggest producers)Source: WEC, SER (2007)
Relatively stable price
Reserves estimated in 150 years, at current consumption rate
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 10
The traditional fossil energy resources
are limited
Alternatives are required ….
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 11
ENERGY SCENARIO is CHANGING all over the World
EUA:
American Clean Energy And Security Act
European Union:
Energy and Climate Package
G8, IEA Outlook, COP
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 12
«Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are
patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically and socially.
....
What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution»
World Energy Outlook 2008 - International Energy Agency (IEA) 12.Nov.08
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 13
The New ENERGY PARADIGM
Energy Efficiency
Endogenous and Renewable Energy
Sources and other Low-Carbon
technologies
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 14
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 15
Lighting
Rail transport
Heat Pumps
PHEV Household Appliances
Motor Systems
Industry
Demand Side
• LESS ELECTRICITY WHERE POSSIBLE (electricity savings)
• MORE ELECTRICITY WHERE NECESSARY (more efficient processes; new uses)
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 16
Towards low-carbon power generation
and new technologies in electricity supply
Supply Side
Fossil Fuels RenewablesLow-Carbon Tech.
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 17
Sinergies+ Security of Supply
(less dependent on energy imports)
+ Environment Protection (less CO2 emissions)
Energy Efficiency (demand side)
Renewable Power (supply side)
Electricity
+ Sustainable Energy
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 18
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 19
Key technologies:
Hydro powerWind energyBiomass Solar thermal powerPhotovoltaic
Renewable Power
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 20
WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL
Source: NASA
Source: 3TIER
SOLAR Power POTENTIAL
In any given hour, more
energy from the sun
reaches Earth than is used
by the whole human
population in any given
year
1070* GW OF CAPACITY
WORLDWIDE FROM RENEWABLE
SOURCES
2007 – installed capacity* Including Large Hydro (830 MW)
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 21
WIND Power INTERMITENCY Intermitency
Non-Dispatchable Power
Need for STORAGE to: DECOUPLE the LOAD
(consumption) and the GENERATION (renewable power) diagrams
REDUCE THE RISK OF LOSS of renewable resources
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 22
Wind / Hydro complementarity
16.Dec.2006
Wind Power declined from 600 MW (during base hours) to 100 MW within 4 hours
800
600
400
200
0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24
... Demand rises and Wind delivered Power declines
M W
STORAGE - HYDRO Power
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 23
STORAGE - Plug-in Hybrid Electric Cars
Low-Carbon Electricity
replaces Fossil Fuels in
the Transportation sector
• Electricity from sustainable energy resources can be used
• Zero emissions at the point of use
• Simple, silent, and affordable to operate
• They can store energy and provide Operational Reserve to the System
Portugal
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 24
EUROPE (EU) – Ambitious Targets for 2020
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 25
www.energyfromportugal.com
PORTUGAL
A case of success
43%: 2007 to a reference hydro condition (1997)
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 26
Wind Power Hydro Power Other renewables
Energy Efficiency
• Installed more than 2000 MW in 3 years
• Goals: 5100 MW in 2010 and 8500 in 2020
• Create 2 industrial and R&D clusters
• Optimize current unused hydro potential (>45%)
• Anticipate existing facilities reinforcement
• Implement the National Hydro Plan
•Promote a diversified policy on other RES
• 250 MW biomass
• 750 MW PV solar
• 250 MW wave
• 100 MW biogas
• Innovative policy on micro-generation (650 MW by 2015)
• Set a 10% energy efficiency improvement target by 2015• Free distribution of 4,5 million efficient lamps• Energy efficient buildings policy• National Plan for electric car roll out
Complementary wind/hydro policy
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 27
PORTUGAL’S WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY
Source: MEI
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 28
NATIONAL HYDRO PLAN
Source: MEI, DGEG, REN UDI Database
HYDRO POTENTIAL vs INSTALLED HYDRO CAPACITY (since 1975)
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 29
Sustainability & New Energy Paradigm
Role of Electricity
Renewable Power
Role of the Grid
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 30
More RENEWABLE ENERGYGrid Expansion/Reinforcement
Huge Investments
New lines
Reinforcement of existing lines;
New substations (receiving wind)
More transformation power
More reactive energy compensation capacity
Control and command equipment
modernizationIn the future:
One-way transmission systems (from power plants to
consumers)or … a different model?
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 31
The new Grid model paves the way for
the integration of distributed generation (renewables and other micro-
generation, …) and
“consumer side” applications (demand response, home made energy, …)
Source: “Smart Gris – Vision and Strategy for Europe’s Electricity Networks of the Future”
SMART GRIDS
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 32
SMART GRIDS BENEFITS
• New uses of the electric grid (operation and “consumer side”
applications)
• More distributed generation can be integrated with the grid
• Mass-scale renewables integration
• Consumer incentive for efficiency
“Updating the way we get our electricity by staring
to build a new SMART GRID that will save us
money, protect our power sources from blackout or
attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of
energy.”
U.S.A. President Barack Obama, 2009
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 33
More SUSTAINABLE energy …
... more GRID
more RENEWABLE energy (increased operational
flexibility) …
more ELECTRICITY (in the global energy mix) …
Cigré’s International Colloquium – Porto – 23rd September 2009 34
Tomorrow’s Energy
Today’s Challenge