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1. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases, selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
CAN
KOR
FRA
DEU
BEL
USA
Days since 1 case per million
ESP
# of people (log scale)
IND
SWE
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170
2. World: Evolution of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
SWE
KOR
Days since 1 death per million
DEU
BEL
FRA
ESP
# of people (log scale)
IND
CAN
USA
3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases, 3 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
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World
NBF Economics and Strategy
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Canada
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Public Health Canada, INSPQ)
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Italy
NBF Economics and Strategy
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NBF Economics and Strategy
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Germany
NBF Economics and Strategy
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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
Belgium
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)
Daily change in new cases and in total active cases (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
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.05
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.30
.35
.40
.45
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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
Denmark
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
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South Africa
NBF Economics and Strategy
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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
India
NBF Economics and Strategy
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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
Russia
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
South Korea
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
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Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
Brazil
NBF Economics and Strategy
000 persons
New cases (left axis) New recoveries (left axis) Active cases (confirmed – recovered – deaths, right axis)
10,000
1,000
100
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1
25 50 75 100 125 150 175
4. Canada: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
SWEQC
Days since 1 case per million
CAN
AB
BEL
BC
ON
# of people (log scale) USA
ESP
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
5. Canada: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
SWE
QC
Days since 1 death per million
CAN
AB
BEL
BC
ON
# of people (log scale)
USA
ESP
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180
6. Latin America: COVID-19 cases versus selected countriesCases per one million population, days since 1 case per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
MEX
Days since 1 case per million
CAN
BRA
BEL
PER
# of people (log scale) CHL
ESP
USA
1,000
100
10
1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170
7. Latin America: COVID-19 deaths versus selected countriesDeaths per one million population, days since 1 death per million
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Worldometers, Johns Hopkins CSSE)
MEX
Days since 1 death per million
CAN
BRA
BELPER
# of people (log scale)
USAESP
CHL
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 Days
Brazil 0.9 12.8 64.9 139.1 208.5 203.0 i
Israel 19.9 40.8 4.2 31.5 176.4 165.5 i
United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 85.2 174.9 150.0 i
Spain 66.2 83.8 18.0 7.0 72.0 110.3 h
South Africa 0.7 2.4 14.7 66.6 130.2 63.3 i
Belgium 35.6 102.8 27.4 8.8 44.5 48.2 h
India 0.0 0.8 3.6 9.5 40.0 44.9 h
Mexico 0.3 4.7 18.0 35.3 49.3 44.6 i
Netherlands 23.7 52.0 13.4 7.5 24.1 35.8 h
France 25.7 58.0 9.9 4.4 21.6 35.6 h
Sweden 14.1 55.0 52.5 102.0 24.7 29.3 h
Switzerland 61.8 50.0 4.8 3.3 19.1 25.5 h
Denmark 15.9 36.2 14.0 6.3 15.3 22.8 h
Austria 36.4 19.5 4.6 3.8 15.0 22.7 h
Portugal 23.5 57.5 23.6 31.5 19.1 19.7 h
United Kingdom 11.9 71.7 49.2 13.5 12.5 15.9 h
Turkey 5.2 42.2 16.7 14.2 12.7 14.5 h
Germany 27.6 36.3 7.9 4.8 10.0 14.0 h
Australia 5.7 2.9 0.6 0.9 15.9 11.6 i
Norway 27.5 19.0 4.2 2.7 6.8 9.9 h
Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 12.0 10.6 8.2 i
Italy 55.8 54.9 14.7 4.2 5.7 8.1 h
Japan 0.4 3.2 0.7 0.5 8.8 8.0 i
Finland 8.2 21.5 10.9 2.1 2.7 3.9 h
South Korea 4.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.4 3.1 h
China 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days
compared to
28 days trend
8. World, Daily new cases per million population
0
50
100
150
200
250
BRA ISR USA ESP ZAF BEL IND MEX NLD FRA SWECHE DEN AUT PRT GBR TUR DEU AUS NORCAN ITA JAP FIN KORCHN
Worst week before June
Current
9. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Cases per
million people
Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million population
March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 Days
Brazil 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 i
Mexico 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.7 4.9 4.5 i
South Africa 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 4.1 3.3 i
United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 i
Israel 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.3 h
Belgium 2.0 19.8 5.2 0.8 0.4 0.8 h
India 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 h
Australia 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 h
Italy 6.6 8.6 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.5 h
Sweden 0.6 7.9 5.8 3.1 0.5 0.3 i
Portugal 0.5 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 i
Turkey 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 h
France 1.7 10.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 h
Spain 5.8 11.5 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.2 h
Canada 0.1 2.8 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.2 i
United Kingdom 1.2 12.0 5.6 2.3 0.2 0.2 i
Norway 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 h
Netherlands 2.0 7.3 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 h
Austria 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 h
Japan 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 h
Switzerland 1.6 5.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 i
Germany 0.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 i
Finland 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 i
Denmark 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 i
South Korea 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 i
China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days vs 28
days trend
10. World, Daily new deaths per million population
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
BRA MEX ZAF USA ISR BEL IND AUS ITA SWE PRT TUR FRA ESP CAN GBRNOR NLD AUT JAP CHE DEU FIN DEN KORCHN
Worst week before June
Current
11. World: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected countries
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Deaths per
million people
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 Days
Manitoba 2.4 4.2 0.4 0.7 9.8 17.9 h
Saskatchewan 5.0 5.8 7.0 3.9 18.7 15.8 i
Alberta 5.0 35.2 12.1 8.3 20.0 11.8 i
Quebec 15.7 91.3 88.8 17.2 15.0 9.7 i
British Columbia 6.3 7.2 2.9 2.2 7.4 8.2 h
Ontario 4.3 35.0 26.3 17.2 7.6 5.9 i
Prince Edward Island 4.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 4.5 h
New Brunswick 2.9 2.1 0.6 1.4 0.7 1.8 h
Nova Scotia 4.9 27.3 3.6 0.2 0.3 0.6 h
Newfoundland 9.4 6.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 i
Canada 7.2 40.4 32.4 12.0 10.6 8.2 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days vs
28 days
trend
12. Canada, Daily new cases per million population
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
MB SK AB QC BC ON PE NB NS NF
Worst week before June
Current
13. Canada: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Cases per
million people
14. United States, Daily new cases per million population, selected cities
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 Days
Miami-Dade 25.2 122.0 70.5 230.9 775.4 652.2 i
Houston (Harris County) 4.7 40.1 40.5 135.4 271.8 193.4 i
Los Angeles 9.7 67.1 102.1 162.2 228.3 180.5 i
Minneapolis (Hennepin County) 5.2 40.4 169.6 89.6 163.4 130.1 i
Chicago (Cook County) 28.1 207.2 259.4 81.6 121.8 129.6 h
San Francisco 14.5 41.7 39.8 38.4 123.2 117.2 i
Philadelphia 26.8 276.8 166.2 73.7 84.7 81.2 i
Seattle (King County) 33.3 57.4 27.0 30.9 70.2 65.8 i
New York City 166.8 497.2 138.6 47.5 37.5 40.9 h
United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 85.2 174.9 150.0 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days
compared to 28
days trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Miami Houston LA Minneapolis Chicago SF Philadelphia Seattle NYC
Worst week before June
Current
15. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, selected cities
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Cases per
million people
16. United States, Daily new cases per million population
Average daily new Covid-19 cases per million population
March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysGeorgia (GA) 11.9 70.0 63.1 107.5 313.8 266.9 i
Florida (FL) 10.1 41.8 33.5 149.4 358.7 260.3 i
Texas (TX) 4.2 28.6 40.0 113.1 267.7 253.9 i
Tennessee (TN) 11.3 40.7 55.8 102.2 287.6 226.5 i
Missouri (MO) 6.5 32.7 26.1 44.7 204.4 206.4 h
California (CA) 6.7 35.4 50.5 100.8 209.3 199.5 i
Illinois (IL) 15.2 123.3 171.2 60.3 127.6 140.8 h
Indiana (IN) 10.3 77.5 79.9 54.6 126.3 127.6 h
Arizona (AZ) 5.7 29.2 54.4 271.5 239.6 127.2 i
Virginia (VA) 5.3 60.0 108.7 74.5 136.4 126.5 i
Wisconsin (WI) 7.8 31.2 64.0 58.7 142.2 126.0 i
North Carolina (NC) 4.7 29.3 55.4 116.1 150.8 108.3 i
Maryland (MD) 8.9 110.7 165.6 81.5 130.1 105.3 i
Ohio (OH) 6.1 45.1 48.3 46.4 100.5 89.6 i
Michigan (MI) 24.6 107.6 43.5 26.8 72.8 77.9 h
Washington (WA) 23.0 38.9 31.2 48.7 93.7 76.4 i
Pennsylviana (PA) 12.5 112.0 70.9 39.1 64.8 60.5 i
Massachusetts (MA) 30.9 268.7 162.6 40.7 52.1 52.4 h
New Jersey (NJ) 67.9 375.1 151.8 42.1 43.4 44.0 h
New York (NY) 125.7 391.6 110.1 38.9 34.1 33.6 i
United States 18.5 89.4 71.1 85.2 174.9 150.0 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days
compared to 28
days trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
GA FL TX CA TN MO IL AZ IN WI VA NC MD OH WA MI PA MA NJ NY
Worst week before June
Current
17. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 casesDaily cases per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Cases per
million people
18. United States, Daily new deaths per million population
Average daily new Covid-19 deaths per million population
March April May June Last 28 Days Last 7 DaysFlorida (FL) 0.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 7.4 8.4 h
Arizona (AZ) 0.1 1.4 2.6 3.4 8.4 6.9 i
Georgia (GA) 0.3 3.2 2.8 2.4 5.2 6.7 h
Texas (TX) 0.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 7.0 6.0 i
Tennessee (TN) 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.2 2.8 3.2 h
California (CA) 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.6 3.2 3.0 i
Massachusetts (MA) 0.4 16.8 15.4 5.8 2.1 2.1 i
North Carolina (NC) 0.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 2.3 2.0 i
Ohio (OH) 0.2 2.6 3.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 i
Indiana (IN) 0.2 5.3 4.9 2.5 1.6 1.9 h
Missouri (MO) 0.1 2.3 1.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 h
Washington (WA) 0.9 2.6 1.3 0.9 1.6 1.7 h
Pennsylviana (PA) 0.2 6.3 7.8 2.8 1.2 1.6 h
Illinois (IL) 0.3 5.9 7.7 4.0 1.3 1.4 h
Virginia (VA) 0.1 2.2 3.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 i
Maryland (MD) 0.1 6.2 7.4 3.6 1.5 1.2 i
Wisconsin (WI) 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.0 i
Michigan (MI) 0.9 12.3 5.6 1.5 0.8 0.9 h
New Jersey (NJ) 1.0 26.1 16.2 5.7 0.8 0.6 i
New York (NY) 5.4 36.5 9.8 2.6 0.6 0.5 i
United States 0.6 6.0 4.0 2.1 3.1 3.1 i
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
7 days vs 28
days trend
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FL AZ GA TX TN CA MA NC OH IN MO WA PA IL VA MD WI MI NJ NY
Worst week before June
Current
19. United States: Perspective on the current COVID-19 deathsDaily deaths per million people, worst week before June and current week, 20 most populous states
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
Deaths per
million people
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
20. New York City: Then vs nowWeekly deaths per 100 000 population: 1918 pandemic vs COVID-19 (COVID-19 last obs.: August 9 to 15)
Weekly deaths per 100 000 population
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Wikipedia, Markel and al. Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented
During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic)
COVID-19
1918 pandemic
# of weeksWeek 1: September 14 1918/ March 14 2020
Shaded area represents length of nonpharmaceutical interventions in
1918, line represent start of measures in 2020
32.3
46.9
16.1
4.7
23.1
64.0
8.5
4.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over
Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofinfluenza andpneumonia deaths
21. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths
NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC, Census Bureau)
18.6
39.7
25.8
16.0
0.032.9
17.6
79.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over
Proportion ofpopulation
Proportion ofCOVID-19 deaths
Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of August 8)
% %
AgeAge
22. World: Perspective on trafficDifference in congestion level vs 2019, 7 day moving average (last obs.: August 10 to 16)
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Tom Tom Traffic)
Percentage points
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
Montreal Paris Madrid Rome Stockholm Berlin Miami New York Tokyo
Worst week Now
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2020M3 2020M4 2020M5 2020M6 2020M7 2020M8
23. World: Perspective on restaurant reservationsYear over year change in restaurant reservations, 7 day moving average (last obs.: August 15)
y/y change
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Open Table)
CAN
USA
DEU
Global
GBR
AUS
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
24. World: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
% change from baseline*
SWE
USA
CAN
GBR
FRA
ESP
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
DEU
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Apr 2020 May 2020 Jun 2020 Jul 2020 Aug 2020
25. Canada: Back to normal indexGoogle mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
% change from baseline*
CA ABQCBC
ON
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
26. Canada: Perspective on financial stressNBF financial stress index
Stdev
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Lehman bankruptcy
and AIG bailout
U.S. government
credit downgrade
and Eurozone
crisis
Fear of Chinese
recession and
petrol supply
shock
COVID-19
outbreak and
OPEC/Russia oil
price war
NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada
Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the
S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.
Financials bond yield spreadApproximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,
minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxyThe S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian
government bond yield.
S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.
USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.
BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
Variables Estimation