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Vol 5.Issue XIV

October, 26, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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Drought Affects 418,000 Hectares of Rice

Fields in Indonesia, Says Agriculture

Ministry Oct 23, 2015

Extending drought conditions have affected about 418,000 hectares of rice fields in Indonesia,

Bloomberg quoted an Agriculture Ministry report.The drought has damaged about 148,749

hectares of cultivated rice area mostly in West Java, Central Java and South Sulawesi, according

to the Agricultural Ministry's Director General for Food Crops.Due to a likely reduction in this

year's rice output , the government has decided to import rice in order to maintain adequate

stocks and curb price hikes.

The President told reporters that the government has secured rice imports from Vietnam and

Thailand and can be shipped to Indonesia whenever needed. He noted that the government would

decide about shipping rice from overseas based on the weather condition in the last week of

October. The government has reportedly signed import agreement for one million tons of rice

from Vietnam. However, it is not clear about agreements with Thailand. Last month, the Vice-

President hinted that Indonesia would require about 1.5 million tons or rice imports to maintain

adequate stocks and protect prices.

Asian Rice Quotes Remain Unchanged Today Oct 23, 2015

Asian rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $355 - $365 per ton about $15 per ton discount on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $370 - $380 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $350

- $360 per ton, about $45 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $305 - $315 per

ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is indicated at around $330 - $340 per ton, about $20 per ton discount on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350- $360 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$330 - $340 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $280 -

$290 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $360 - $370 per ton. India parboiled rice is

indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice

last shown at around $405 - $415 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super is indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton, at par with Vietnam

100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at

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around $290 - $300 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown

at around $275 - $285 per ton.

Oryza Weekly - Increasing Demand from

Indonesia and Philippines Supports Global

Rice Prices Oct 24, 2015

The current El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and it is considered as one of the strongest

patterns since 1950. It is likely to extend to early next year. While countries in Asia, South

American and Australia will experience drought conditions, countries in North America will get

heavy rains. Production is likely to decline in India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

Global rice prices are continuing to increase amid fears of lower supplies and increased demand

from Indonesia and the Philippines.The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of

global white rice export quotes, ended the week at about $395 per ton, up about $3 per ton from

a week ago, up about $8 per ton from a month ago and down about $59 per ton from a year ago.

Thailand Thailand 5% broken rice is today shown at about $360 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a

week ago, up about $15 per ton from a month ago and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.

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Thailand‟s Foreign Trade Department approved the sale of 112,000 tons from the auction

conducted on September 29, at an average price of 10,000 baht (around $283) per ton.

The Thai Commerce Ministry plans to introduce a new pledging scheme for Hom Mali rice in

efforts to control prices during the harvest season.

Vietnam Vietnam 5% broken rice is today shown at about $375 per ton, up about $15 per ton from a week

ago, up about $15 per ton from a month ago and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.

In August, Vietnam exported about 461,035 tons of rice, down about 24% from July, and down

about 27.5% from August 2014.

Cambodia 5% broken rice is today shown at about $420 per ton, unchanged from a week and an

month ago, and down about $50 per ton from a year ago.

India India 5% broken rice is today shown at about $355 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down

about $5 per ton from a month ago, and down about $65 per ton from a year ago.

Researchers from the Indian Agricultural Research Institute will help the government promote

the use of black rice.

Pakistan Pakistan 5% broken rice is today shown at about $310 per ton, unchanged from a week ago,

down about $5 per ton from a month ago and down about $90 per ton from a year ago.

Pakistan exported around 659,567 tons of rice (including 89,950 tons of basmati and 569,617

tons of non-basmati) in the first three months of FY 2015-16 (July - June), up about 16% from

around 569,799 tons (121,496 tons of basmati and 448,303 tons of non-basmati) exported during

the same period in FY 2014-15,

Central & South America Brazil 5% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week and a

month ago and down about $50 per ton from a year ago. The Brazilian paddy rice index

maintained by CEPEA reached around 40.38 real per 50 kilograms as of October 18, 2015,

slightly up from around 40.32 real per 50 kilograms recorded on October 12, 2015. In terms of

USD per ton, the index reached around $208.33 per ton on October 18, 2015, slightly up from

around $207.33 per ton recorded on October 12, 2015. Month-on-month, the index has increased

about 6% from about 38.06 real per 50 kilograms on September 18, 2015. In terms of USD, the

index increased about 9% during the month.

Five percent broken rice from Uruguay and Argentina is today shown at about $535 per ton,

unchanged from a week ago, down about $5 per ton from a month ago, and down about $65 per

ton from a year ago.

Venezuela reportedly plans to import rice from Suriname, which will likely end the oil-for-rice

deal with Guyana.

U.S. U.S. 4% broken rice is today shown at about $500 per ton, unchanged from a week ago, down

about $35 per ton from a month ago and up about $5 per ton from a year ago.

Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery saw some gains midweek before dropping off

towards the end of the week. After opening at $12.130 per cwt (about $267 per ton) on Monday,

futures climbed to a weekly high of $12.290 per cwt (about $271 per ton) on Wednesday before

falling to close at $11.900 per cwt (about $262 per ton) on Friday.

The U.S. cash market was weaker later in the week, falling in sympathy with the futures market

as most sellers choose to store their rice and wait for prices to improve.

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Taiwan purchased a total of 36,750 tons of the 2015 U.S. CSQ of 64,634 tons, as of October 13.

Other Markets The European Commission will implement new regulations for limiting inorganic arsenic in

rice and other food starting January 1, 2016.

Cambodia has signed a contract with China to export about 100,000 tons of rice starting in early

2016.During the first nine months of 2015, China has imported about 2.314 million tons of rice,

up about 34% from the same period last year, according to the China Customs General

Administration.

A preliminary report by the Philippines Agriculture Ministry noted that about 463,692 tons of

rice worth 7.09 billion pesos (around $152 million) have been damaged by the Typhoon Koppu.

By the end of October, the government of the Philippines will decide on importing an additional

one million tons of rice in the first quarter of 2016, according to the National Food Authority

Administrator. The government held an emergency meeting this week to discuss the potential of

additional rice imports.

Extending drought conditions have affected about 418,000 hectares of rice fields in Indonesia.

The government is discussing possible rice imports with the governments of Thailand and

Vietnam due to concerns about lower production as a result of extending drought

conditions. The President confirmed that the government will import rice if the dry season

continues until November.

The Italian Telematic Commodity Exchange has developed a new online platform for

international agricultural trade, called “International Market,” to extend the benefits of an

electronic commodity exchange to non-European countries.

Iraq has invited international tenders to purchase about 30,000 tons of rice from the U.S.,

Uruguay, Argentina, and India with the last date for submitting bids November 11.

The government of Malaysia has decided to review the Super Tempatan 15 (ST15) rice subsidy

scheme, under which it provides subsidized rice to low-income families, following criticisms that

it has failed to achieve the stated objectives

The Guyana Rice Producers Association (RPA) Chairman has advised the government to tap the

Caribbean and Europe rice markets after losing the Venezuelan market,

Government of Malaysia Begins Review of

Subsidized Rice Program Oct 23, 2015

The government of Malaysia has decided to review the Super Tempatan 15 (ST15) rice subsidy

scheme, under which it provides subsidized rice to low-income families, following criticisms that

it has failed to achieve the stated objectives, Bloomberg quoted local sources.The Ministry of

Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry is reportedly conducting a survey to determine whether the

scheme needs to be improved or scrapped, the Agriculture Minister was quoted. He noted that

the Ministry received several complaints on the conduction of the scheme. The Ministry has

taken requisite measures but the scheme, which is intended for only low-income people is being

misused, he said. Even non-Malaysians are using the scheme, he added."The outcome of the

study will be announced soon.

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We are considering a new mechanism to ensure that the government's aim to aid the poor will

achieve its goal," he said.The Minister assured that the government will try to fix the leakages in

the scheme and ensure that the targeted group is benefited.In March this year, Malaysia's Public

Accounts Committee (PAC) urged the government to suspend the ST15 scheme as it has not

been able to achieve the objectives set by the Ministry of Agriculture as well as Agro-based

industry, but huge funds have been used for the program, which began in 2008.

Typhoon Koppu Damages 463,692 Tons of

Rice Worth $152 Million, Says Agriculture

Ministry Report Oct 23, 2015

A preliminary report by the Philippines Agriculture Ministry noted that about 463,692 tons of

rice worth 7.09 billion pesos (around $152 million) have been damaged by the Typhoon Koppu,

according to Bloomberg.

The typhoon affected about 335,885 hectares of rice fields. About 94% of the fields have a

chance of recovery, according to the Ministry. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is

estimating the country's total paddy output in the last quarter (October - December) at around

7.95 million tons.

The Economic Planning Secretary told reporters that the output in first quarter of next year

would decline as drought conditions have significantly affected the planting operations. He noted

that the government will consider importing one million tons of rice in the first quarter of 2016

to compensate losses from the typhoon. He however noted that the country currently has

sufficient stocks.

The National Food Authority (NFA) Council will meet next week to decide on the imports. It has

already approved for 1.8 million tons of rice imports this year and 500,000 tons in the first

quarter of 2016.

On the other hand another typhoon „Lando‟ is likely to further damage rice crops leading to more

losses and more imports.

Global Rice Quotes

October 26th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 365-375 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 370-380 ↔

India 5% broken 350-360 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 305-315 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 415-425 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 490-510 ↔

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Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 330-340 ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 355-365 ↑

Pakistan 25% broken 280-290 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 400-410 ↔

India 25% broken 330-340 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 360-370 ↔

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 405-415 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 340-350 ↔

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 590-610 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 815-825 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 475-485 ↓

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 305-315 ↔

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315 ↔

Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 290-300 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 330-340 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Guyana Advised to Tap Caribbean, European

Rice Markets after Losing Venezuelan

Market Oct 23, 2015

The Guyana Rice Producers Association (RPA) Chairman has advised the government to tap the

Caribbean and Europe rice markets after losing the Venezuelan market, according to local

sources.Last week, Venezuela has decided to import rice from Suriname in 2016 under a new

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PetroCaribe deal, officially cancelling deal with Guyana. The RPA Chairman noted that as

Suriname would supply rice to Venezuela, Guyana should consider tapping Suriname's

traditional markets in the Caribbean and Europe.

“Suriname‟s rice production is not that big so it depends on how much they supply to Venezuela

and so depending on how much they supply to Venezuela then that corresponding amount will

be available for us (Guyana) to supply the Caribbean and Europe,” he said.He noted that

Venezuela was an important market for Guyana because export earnings from Venezuela

accounted for about 75% of the total export earnings of the country though the volume of exports

comprised of only 38% of the country's total export volume.Guyana and Venezuela are

reportedly involved in a border controversy after Venezuela sought to claim a part of Guyana‟s

territory.

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Tumble as Market Breaks

through Technical Support and Demand

Remains Slack Oct 24, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 28 cents per cwt (about $6 per ton) lower at $12.140

per cwt (about $267 per ton). The other grains finished the day with mixed results after trading sharply

lower for the majority of the session; Soybeans closed about 0.6% lower at $8.9600 per bushel; wheat

finished about 0.1% lower at $4.9050 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.4% higher at $3.7975

per bushel.U.S. stocks traded higher Friday after the Chinese central bank cut interest rates and after three

tech giants posted better-than-expected earnings. The People's Bank of China cut interest rates for the

sixth time since November to 4.35%, effective from Oct. 24. Stocks opened sharply higher, with the Dow

Jones industrial average briefly trading more than 150 points higher, while the Nasdaq Composite opened

up 2%. The Nasdaq also traded above 5,000 for the first time since Aug. 19. The indexes held higher in

late-morning trading, but off their session highs, as the Dow pared its initial gains.

On the data front, investors took in the latest manufacturing PMI data, which came in at 52, below the

expected 52.8. In Europe, equities traded sharply higher, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index

closing 1.99% higher. Overnight, Asian stocks closed higher, with the Nikkei 225 rising 2.11%, while the

Shanghai Composite rose 1.32%. The IMF is working on a deal that could add the Chines yuan into the

fund's basket of reserve currencies. The Dow Jones industrial average traded up 105 points, or 0.6%, at

17,594. The S&P 500 traded up 16 points, or 0.81%, at 2,069, with information technology leading six

sectors higher as utilities led decliners. The Nasdaq traded up 97 points, or 1.97%, at 5,017. Gold is

trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.6% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading

about 0.8% higher about 1:15pm Chicago time.Thursday, there were 2,976 contracts traded, up from

1,853 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Thursday

decreased by 114 contracts to 12,807.