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Operational review on the 10-year (2003-2012) typhoon surveillance flight observation with dropsondes and their statistical feature of outer core in western Pacific region
Po-Hsiung Lin1 Chun-Chieh Wu1 Kun-Hsuan Chou2
1National Taiwan University2Chinese Culture University
� Part I:• Phases of DOTSAR Project• Operation Flow of DOTSTAR� Part II:� Some Statistics Numbers (2003~2012)� Characteristics of Typhoon Outer Core� eye crossing flights and Inner core of typhoon � Summary and next step
OUTLINE
Phases of DOTSAR Project
� Pre-Phase: 2002 summer (visiting NOAA/RHD, AOC)
� Phase 1 : 2003-2005 (NTU, supported by NSC)
� Phase 2: 2006-2012 (NTU, supported by CWB +
2008 TPARC + 2010 ITOP)
� Phase 3: 2013~ (TTFRI, supported by CWB)
Pre-Phase: 2012 NOAA/RHD, NOAA/AOC/G4Atlantic 2002 • TD EDOURAD• TD FAY
Phase 1 : 2003-2005Funding support by NSC
• Airplane owners: Japan Diamond Air Service, Taiwan AIDC• AIDC ASTRA Jet AVAPS setup• Interface for flight path making (Virtual Basics, Windows-Based) • Onboard flight-aid software (NTU-Madonna , NCAR-ASPEN) • 1st test flight: May 23, 2003• 1st typhoon mission: Dujuan (Sept. 1, 2003)
ASTRA (Gulfstream 100)
Windows Interface for flight path making (Virtual Basics)
Flight domain
Naha FIR
Philippines FIR
Operation Flow of DOTSTAR
DB 5~3 daysStorm Watch (CWB, NTU)
DB 3~2 daysFlight path making (NTU)Flight plan sending to NAHA, Philippines, HK FIR (AIDC)
DB 2~1 daysCrews Call (NTU)Decision making (Go or not) (NTU+CWB)
DB 5~2 hrsGround transportation Taipei---Taichung (NTU)
DB 2~1 hrsFinal ground check (AIDC + NTU)
DB 1hrMission + Weather briefing (AIDC + NTU)
DA 0~6hrsDrop + onboard code editing + voice communication (NTU, AIDC, CWB)
DB: Day BeforeDA: Day After
System Engineer
Code editor
Launcher + PI (visitor)
AVAPS operator
RD94 dropsonde
ASTRA (Gulfstream 100)
gate
toilet
Code
editor
launcher
SE
AVAPS
operator
Satcomm
PI / Visitor
internet
pilots
Onboard data processing
AVAPS (Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System )
RD94 dropsonde in-air data
SatcommFTP
TTFRI
CWB
Astra Jet flight Information
Madonna (2003-2006)
(realtime airborne and dropsondedata ploting & diagnosis system )
Britney (2007~)
(Bright tool for onboard enjoy)
AR-429 Bus-Card
Pilot console
Vaisala
NTU
ASPEN (Atmospheric Sounding Processing Environment )
DCF (Data Compress and FTP sending )
NTU
NCAR
Phase 1~3
� 2004 “e-Taiwan” Film by Government Information Office� 2008 ”T-PARC”� 2008 “National Geography” TV program� 2009 “NSC-50th” film program� 2010 “ITOP”� 2012 “Follow me” TV children program� 2013 Technical transfer from NTU to TTFRI
Some Statistics Numbers (2003-2012)
Dropsonde: 946/1051 (10% bad, most of this number contributed by old RD93 dropsonde before 2009)
Flights: 64TY : 49
The case-averaged track error statistics of 2003–2009 DOTSTAR cases at every 24-h forecast time for different periods.
Bars represent the case-averaged track error of control (NCEP-O) and denial (NCEP-N) forecasts (in km). The solid
line indicates the case-averaged track error improvement (in %) and the dashed line the number of cases in each
forecast time. The single (double) asterisk shown on the abscissa indicates that the forecast error difference between the
control and denial runs is statistically significant at the 90% (95%) confidence level. (Chou et al.,2011)
Dropsonde impact study by NCEP GFS 2003-2009 45 TCs (35 cases)
Improvement of track error 12~18%
13 13 13 13 55 55 55 55 82 82 82 82 114 114 114 114 140 140 140 140 167 167 167 167 221 221 221 221 13 13 13 13 67 67 67 67 87 87 87 87 115 115 115 115 151 151 151 151 177 177 177 177 244 244 244 244
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 (34) 12 (34) 24 (34) 36 (32) 48 (30) 60 (28) 72 (24)
track
erro
rs
(km
)
forecast hours (case no.)
TWRF_45_DP
TWRF_45_NODP
Dropsonde impact study by CWB-TWRF 2008-2012 22 TCs (34 cases)
增加dropsonde資料34個案,TWRF平均颱風路徑誤差改進 7.9%。
鄭浚騰, 陳得松,蕭玲鳳 ,黃康寧, 洪景山 ,馮欽賜 ,Xiang-Yu Huang, Hongli Wang, 葉天降(2013,天氣分析與預報研討會 )
Improvement of track error ~8%
Some Statistics Numbers (2003-2012) Distance to eye / dropsonde number
• 0-100 km (inner core) / 17• 100-300 km (outer core) / 314• 300-500 km / 399• > 500 km / 216
Target observation for sensitivity regions
Characteristics of Typhoon Outer CoreTangential velocity
DRUR
DLUL
DL: shallow and smallDR: deep and largerUR: maxi wind at ~1100m height and 1.4 times more than DL
1100m
Characteristics of Typhoon Outer CoreTangential velocity (UR)
DRUR
DLUL
light : strong (1 : 1.4 )
1100m
Typhoon intensity defined by CWB
DR
UR
DL
UL
In-situ measurement of wind speedby Aerosonde in Typhoon Longwang 2005 (Lin and Lee, 2008)
Characteristics of Typhoon Outer CoreRelative Humidity
DRUR
DLUL
600m
Compared with wind field, moisture profiles are more symmetric in outer core of typhoon
Characteristics of Typhoon Outer CoreRelative Humidity (UR)
DRUR
DLUL
light : strong (1 : 1.03 )
500m
Characteristics of Typhoon Outer CoreVirtual Potential TemperatureDR
UR
DLUL
500m
Compared with wind field, thermal profiles are more symmetric in outer core of typhoonUnstable level height is about ~ 500m height
Characteristics of Typhoon Outer CoreVirtual Potential Temperature (UR)
DRUR
DLUL
500m
Stability below 500m in different intensity of typhoon needs more study
eye crossing flights and Inner core of typhoon *2003 Melor
N
SN S N S
Comparison of vertical profiles between Inner core and outer core�lower and stronger windshear + more humid
DR
UR
DL
UL
• tangential wind : maximum speed close to 1000m height and asymmetric in quadrants (stronger at UR, weaker at DL)
• humidity : more symmetric than wind field • The profiles in different intensity of typhoons are under
studied. • More data from inner core should be collected
Summary and next step
Summary and next step
DORIS:A mini AXBT(airborne XBT) in same size of RD94 dropsondeis under developed by NTU, TORI and TTFRI
DORIS will be dropped from ASTRA after RD94 to measure OCPI (Ocean Coupling Potential Index) for typhoon intensity study
∗ Any possibility to have typhoon joint flights among western Pacific countries ?
∗ Joint Program for Western Pacific Typhoon Observation
(JP-WPTO) ?
Questions ?