2._Ra_quyet_dinh_trong_quan_ly.ppt

7/23/2019 2._Ra_quyet_dinh_trong_quan_ly.ppt

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RA QUYT NH TRONG QUN L

CHNG 2

1

I HC BCH KHOA TP. H CH MINHKHOA QUN L CNG NGHIP

Th.S Hunh Th Thu Thanh

20 ! 20!"
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/vi/7/72/Logo_hcmut.png


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Nhng kh khn khi a !u"#$ %nh

&'( )* h+nh ', - ng %/ a !u"#$ %nh

Ra !u"#$ %nh

0ai $ 1 %2( $ 3ng (4a nh5 !u6n 78

9:& T;? ,h3@ng ,h', h $ B a !u"#$ %nh

2


3/66

TC; L;DU THA9 EHO

3

G#$% &'()*+!, H- T* )* P*%)/Gio trnh K thut Ra Quyt nh , 200"+2, M. 1 3 )4 Multiple Criteria Decision Making M5G' 6

H#33 !782+", M '#% T. T 9:5 )%) Multiple Criteria Decision Making in

n!ustry ;3< =# ' !788.+>, T*%? < L. @ &4 Decision Making "or #ea!ers T*%? < L.

@ &4+ , %9 '& H 33 ' DE5* /#F K#? P* )/ J L N/ 5 P*C$% &ang Qu'n #( )i*u Qu' + K &,ng Ra Quyt nh- N*

: & 9F) N 9 T )/ * R TP.HCM


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F. RA QUYT NH TRONG QUN L

G#F &*#S& = < * R 3V

4


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F. RA QUYT NH TRONG QUN L

W:4S& XE)*

5


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. & & LOI; RQ TRONG QUN L

C$5 3%Y# ' W:4S& XE)*

6


7/66


C$5 3%Y# ' W:4S& XE)*

Vn ccu trc tt Ra quyt nhtheo chng trnh

Vn ccu trc km

Ra quyt nh khng theo chng trnh

7


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Loi vn

Vn c cu trc tt Vn c cu trckm

c im Mc tiu r rngT !ng tin "# $%i to&n c 'ng

(u)n t u*c +,c - .n (u#n c o

n /L c- '+0i r1

(u#2t 3n

4ng 5i to&n m0im6

T !ng tin k !ng "#$7 k !ng r rng8&c n /L c- c1o

'n n iu t 9i gi1n

:n (u#2t 3nV; ' Bi ton quyt nh

thng/ pht nhn vinBi ton quyt nh

chin lc pht trinca c ng ty

8


9/66


W:4S& XE)* &* % 5* )/ &'()*

Q:4 &'()* ZP'%5 [:' \ 5$5 9 ]5 ^ 3V = ) X .L:_& Z :3 \ X# : /( ) ) = `*a)/ ) ) 3 ?.C*b)*


10/66


W:4S& XE)* &* % &b)* 5* & = ) X

Q &'%)/ X# : `#d) 5*e5 5*e) 9#S& 5*e5 &'Y)/ &*$F4 ' .Q &'%)/ X# : `#d) 'g# '% 9#S& $5


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J. QU TRKNH RA QUYT NH

11


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B # &%$) ' W:4S& XE)*)/ A 3 G#$? Xl5 5a)/ &4 ABC ?:l) ' W:4S& XE)* = =#d5 R*$& &'#


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B # &%$) ' W:4S& XE)* < B" )/ A 5*% 't)/ 5q 2 &()* *:l)/ 5g &*E &' r)/


14/66

P. RQ TRONG ; U E;DN R ; RO

= 9a , ($ -9 n "$a " 0a7u ZC 5XY# /#$ &'E `x = )/ X 5&b)* 9t)/ )\

= 9in , ($ -

O,, $uni$" L >>ZC 5m: &*#d& *Y# `x = )/\

= LV, W6ng !u"#$%nh

= &X" !u"#$ %nh

14


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

EMV(i) =P (Sj) xP ij LV, W6ng !u"#$ %nh

M1> ?MV

P ! "#$ xc sut trng thi j xut hinP%" $ l li nhu n!chi "h#c$% "h&'ng n i (ng)*i trng thi j% & ' n n$ s+"h&'ng n " & ' nm$ ,+ trng thi

-

j . 1

15


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

PAT.

Thi

Th trngtt

Th trngxu

EMV (i)

@ m A0n BCDEDDD FGHDEDDD ICEDDD@ m n J GDDEDDD FKDEDDD IDEDDD

!ng Am g D D D

N OP QR DEC DEC

yb [z G#F


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

PAT.

Thi

Th trngtt

Th trngxu

EMV (i)

@ m A0n BCDEDDD FGHDEDDD

@ m n J GDDEDDD FKDEDDD!ng Am g D D

N OP QR DEI DES

yb [z NS: $5


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

G#F


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

Eh'i ni\) 0 ; Z; R 5& [ y 3: % P ' 5&I)%'? %)\L /#$ &'E `x = )/ 5g &*a)/ ) *% ) *F%D)/ ;yPI Xm 5*:4m) X # ?a# &' r)/ 'g# '% < )/ ?a&' r)/ 5*e5 5*e).

;yPI { /#$ ?: &*a)/ ).$5 XE)* &*S ) % s

19


20/66

P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

Eh'i ni\) 0 ;] G#$ &l# X 5q &*m &'F `*# ?: &*a)/ ) Z;yPI\{ /#$

= )/ `*# 5q &*a)/ ) *% ) *F% Z;yPI\ /#$ &'E `x =`*# 5* 5q &*a)/ ) *% ) *F% Z;My?.O \

EVWPI =P (S j )xMaxP ij -

j . 1

EVPI = EVWPI - Max EMV(i)

20


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

PAT.

Thi

Th trngtt

Th trngxu

EMV (i)

@ m A0n BCDEDDD FGHDEDDD ICEDDD@ m n J GDDEDDD FKDEDDD IDEDDD

!ng Am g D D D

N OP QR DEC DEC

yb [z T*a)/ ) &*E &' r)/ /#$ p .000. M: * 4 `*

;yPI { 0. 2 0.000 0. 0 { !2 .000

;yPI { ;yPI J M ;My { !2 .000 J " .000 { 70.000

21


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

yb [z ! @ 334 X )/ 5) )*e5 = =#d5 ? ?& 5^&*r# &' )/. @ : `*# R*) &b5* @ 334 &* 4 't)/ &*E&*r# &' )/ 5q &*m 5q 5$5 &()* *:l)/ < : T*E &' r)/ &l& Z $5


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P.F L ZNG QUYT NH

yb [z " Ca)/ &4 ABC X )/ ? & " [ $) A! A2A". T*: )*_R 5g &)/ [ $) v)/ =]# ?h# &'Y)/ &*$# X&'%)/ 9F)/ < :

T* % : 5*:o) 5 5 XY# /#$ &'E `x = )/ &b)* 9t)/ &5a)/ &4


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24

Max EMVO8Yc

i gi& tr3 kZ v[ng

+,c t;n 5\ngtinR

Min E!" O8Yc tiut i]t i kZ v[ngR

EOL (i) = P(# $) x !"

i$

P ! "#$ xc sut trngthi j xut hin() %" $ thit hi c' h/i c$%"h&'ng n i (ng )*i trngthi j% & ' n n$ s+ "h&'ngn

" & ' n m$ ,+ trngthi !" i$= MaxPi$ - Pi$

y cng chnh l s tinb thit hi khi khngchn c phng n tiu ph!i chn phng

-

j . 1

P.F L ZNG QUYT NH


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BF)/ &*#d& *Y# 5 *#

25

^_ 'n T `ng $h'iK*q *w) T. B()* T*:_) 3 #

A! !"0 0 0

A2 }0 >0 0A" 0 70 !>0

$5


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T*#d& *Y# 5 *# `x = )/

26

%& n Tr'ng thi E!"(i) k ^n TE % n T u_n A,i

`G GID D D Ia `B SD KD CD CG `I D aD GKD SI

b&c ut DEI DEC DEB#$% &'() * +", - (,+ . +"/ - + . +"0 - + * ,1#$% &'0) * +", - 2+ . +"/ - 3+ . +"0 - /+ * /(#$% &',) * +", - + . +"/ - 1+ . +"0 - (3+ * 2,

*%n +() %# & +VP,

P.F L ZNG QUYT NH


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P. & Y QUYT NH

27

Q:4 ]5 = X- &*E 54 W:4S& XE)* N& W:4S& XE)*

T )& W:4S& XE)*


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28

1

2

3

1

2

3

h h:n 0;3 nh 0;5


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b. RQ TRONG ; U E;DN EHcNG &Hd& &HdN

C$5 3%Y# ' W:4S& XE)*M #?

M #?#)

-)/ X : )/c: )*# )T# : 5*:o) *#d) &* 5 ZT# : 5*:o) H:'6# \

M#)#?

29


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= M1>im1>

= M1>imin

= dng u ngeu n in

= Tiu c ufn i]n t Yc

OTiu c ufn urhi) R= Minim1>

30

T m gi& tr3 A0n n ttrong 5jng (u#2t 3nM`b OM1> NiQREN` n#t m A,i n u_n A0n n t5t c - r$i ro tiuc ufn Ac (u1nO -timi tic 4)ci ioncrit)rionR


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= M1>im1>

= M1>imin

= dng u ngeu n in



31

T m Min7 1u A#gi& tr3 M1> c$1 Min M`b OMl@ NiQR FT m

N` c t n t t ;t n tN` n# g[i A (u#2t3n 5i (u1nON) imi tic 4)ci ionR


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= M1>im1>

= M1>imin

= dng u ngeu n in



32

8&c trng t &i c k jn^ng >j# r1 A n +n 1u


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= M1>im1>

= M1>imin

= dng u ngeu n in



33

M! n trung 5 n c tr[ng 'ung p1 giq1 M1>im1> M1>iminE

8 [n Ds s G8 [n N` c

M1> O M1> NiQ OGF R Mi


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= M1>im1>

= M1>imin

= dng u ngeu n in



34

V0i LiQ wT i]t i c: *ic$1 - +:ng &n i xng v0itrng t &i Q

= T;n LiQ c o c&c trngt &i= Po &n c&cM1> LiQ A# Min


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yb [z 2 M& 5a)/ &4 X )/ 5) )*e5 5q ) ) ? ')/W:4 ?a 0 000 "00 00

H R X-)/ R*z !80 000 70 000 20 000Tw)/ 5 !!0 000 p0 000 !0 000K*a)/ 3 ? /( 5F 0 0 0

35


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e. RQ TH O 9c HKNH TO N TRONG NH Lf NG

K*$# )#d?PPL 3 ?& R* )/ R*$R `*% * 5 [ &' ) 5$5 R*&%$) Xm )/*# ) 5v: =#d5 &Y% ' 5$5 W:4S& XE)* &'%

T*:_& )/j 5*:4 ) ?a) 5* 5$5 PPLP*) &b5* XE)* 3 )/ ZQ: )&4 A) 34#


37/66

Q:4 &'()* R*) &b5* XE)* 3 )/

^ L;DU

^ATAj

THcNG T;N

;N OR9AT;ONjlm L

P* )/ R*$R XE)* 3 )/ 5q = # &'n W: ) &' )/ )* )/ `*# ' WXE)* R*F# & 5F 2 4S: &l XE)* 3 )/ = XE)* &b)*


37


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H 5n$ 5n,h6n %?i

h6n%?i

T ung-ung

ng8

H 5n$ 5n% ng 8

C*:)/ ?: * )/ )/%Y# )*_R`*a)/ 3 * )* =# X)/ Xe) 5g)/ r# y#d& N ?.

! 2 " >

)/ * ?: * )/ )/%Y# )*_R 3/qR R*k) 3 ? ?&

M: * )/ )/%Y# )*_R /4 & ) *Y#`#)* [% )* 5g )/ r# &'%)/ ) ]5

! 2 " >

C* ) ) ?: * )/ )/%Y# )*_R `*#`*a)/ &*m


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39

l'( %nh ('( [ n %o (pn gi6i !u"#$

LV, )* h+nh

Thu $hV, - 7i\u

T+) 7Mi gi6i

Thq nghi\) 7Mi gi6i

hXn $r(h k#$ !u6

Th_( hi\n 7Mi gi6i

C.C

/01C

2R3&G

4)05&G

4).4

6&)

#07&G



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= H()* &* )* ?& 5: * 4 ?& ?d)* X)/e) )/ ) ' ' )/ = 5$# /( 5k) R*F#/#F# W:4S&

= K*q `*w) < M: &*:c) )# 9 `*# Xi& = ) X < C* ) = ) X 5k) : ) < i& = ) X &* % XE)* * ])/ 5g

/#F# 5z5 9 < @ : `*# Xi& = ) X = &(? ' 3]&*( 3r# /#F# X 3Y5 *_:.

l'( %nh ('( [ n %o

LV, )* h+nh

Thu $hV, - 7i\u

T+) 7Mi gi6i

Thq nghi\) 7Mi gi6i

hXn $r(h k#$ !u6

Th_( hi\n 7Mi gi6i


40


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= Ma *()* 3 < X ) /#F) *q &* 5 &S= C$5 3%Y# ?a *()* < Ma *()* =_& 3V ?a *()* &*: / )

?& &* 5 &*m. < Ma *()* `*$# )#d? [#) &F ?l# 3#

/#j 5$5 9 R*_) &'%)/ *d &*l)/ < Ma *()* &%$) * 5 &_R * R 5

&*v5 &%$) [#) &F 9F) 5* & &*l)/.


l'( %nh ('( [ n %o

LV, )* h+nh

Thu $hV, - 7i\u

T+) 7Mi gi6i

Thq nghi\) 7Mi gi6i

hXn $r(h k#$ !u6

Th_( hi\n 7Mi gi6i 41


42/66

= C$5 Xi5 X#m? 5k) 5q 5g ?a *()* &%$ < Ma *()* R*F# /#F# X 5 < Ma *()* R*F# R* * R &* 5 &S. < Ma *()* R*F# [ *#m: Xl# =]# )* W < Ma *()* R*F# [ &* 4 X # < Ma *()* R*F# [ &*: &*_R [j 3# :

= K*q `*w) `*# 3_R ?a *()* < P*F# [:)/ *n /#j ?v5 X R*v5 &YR

?a *()* `*F )w)/


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43


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= GIGO= N/:-) [j 3#d:

< B$% 5$% < P*u)/ = ) &' 5 SR < P*#S: &*w? [n V `#S) < % XY5 XS? &' 5 SR < D)/ 5$5 R* )/ R*$R &*l)/ ` X


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s. 9tT S 9c HKNH TO N TRONG L

Ly t u#2t r1 (u#2t 3n/u# oc tu#2n t;n/u# oc ngu#n

/u# oc *ng/u# oc 1 mc tiu%i to&n v_n tji%i to&n - .n c!ng

%i to&n (ujn Ay k o

Ly t u#2t >2- ngLy t u#2t ] t ngP: d mng

Ly t u#2t trp c :iz1 (u#2t 3n 1 #2u tLy t u#2t * qu ;cLy t u#2t m! - Jng

45

Q O &


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s.F QUY HOI&H TUYN TvNH

E)* )/*QHTT 3 ?& ` &*:_& &%$) * 5 )*t? $5 XE)* /#$ 5$5 9#S) ! 2 # ) < % 5*% L ? 5 5 XY# * 4

m: /#$ &'E 5gh5) ) ( $iwu ZO9 5= :)5%)\. 1 { Z ! 2 ) \T*u ?) 5$5 5ng Wu=( ZC%)


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47


C$5 9 ]5 W:4 *%Y5* &:4S) &b)*

F QUY HOI&H TUYN T NH


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yb [z Tb)* &%$) 3 )/ 3 /Y% = 3 ?( 5k)


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=@l & ) 3 /Y% 5k) = )/ 9:5 = )*) 3 5

20 ! 2 2 0

! 2 0


49

Gi6i W5i $ 'n QHTT


50/66

Gi6i W5i $ n QHTTWxng % $h

= m mc tiuw M1> } ~ GH>G BG>B= zng 5u*cw= B>G I>B CD

= I>G B>B KC= BD>G C>B BCD= >G D= >B D

50



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G#F# 9 # &%$) QHTT 9t)/ PP X- &*EH ? ?z5 : M 1 { !8 ! 2! 2

)/ 9:52 !" 2 0" !2 2 >20 ! 2 2 0

! 02 0

51



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G#F# 9 # &%$) QHTT 9t)/ PP X- &*ET'%)/ ?i& R*)/ &%Y X O ! 2 & =f 5$5 X r)/ &*)

ZD!\ 2 !" 2 { 0ZD2\ " !2 2 { >ZD"\ 20 ! 2 { 2 0ZD>\ ! { 0ZD \ 2 { 0

52



53/66


G#F# 9 # &%$) QHTT 9t)/ PP X#m? X )*C$5 X#m? X )* 3 /# % X#m? 5g 5$5 ' )/ 9:5 )t? &`*a)/ /# ) 3r# /#F# / # 3 5$5 X )* 5g `*a)/ /# ) 3r#

/#F#.M& `S& W:F W: ) &' )/ &'%)/ 3V &*:4S& QHTT 3&%$) QHTT 5q 3r# /#F# &l# : &*( 3r# /#F#


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s.F QUY HOI&H TUYN TvNH yb [z ! M& [% )* )/*#dR 3eR '$R 2


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P* )/ R*$RMh# 4S: &l W: ) &' )/ F)* * )/ XS) Q | 5 ? 4 &* )* 5a)/.

~. NH G; Hf{NG N ZNG t H U v&H

63

~ NH G; Hf{NG N ZNG t H U v&H


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64

20;000 10;000 0 10;000

J

I

r)/ 5%)/ X *j: b5* 5g a)/ B

0;05

0;15

0;3


~ NH G; Hf{NG N ZNG t H U v&H


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V%n &'$ )/ B 5q &* ? /# = % [ $) ) 4s


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NS: [)/ ;U;UZ&* ? /# \{ 0.> 0." 0. 0.0 {0.!p2;UZ`*a)/ &* ? /# \ { 0.! 0.!p2

KS& 3:_) )/ B &* ? /# Xk: & = % [ $)

NS: [)/ ;My;MyZ&* ? /# \ { 0.> !0.000 0. Z !0.000\ { !000

;MyZ`*a)/ &* ? /# \ { 0 !000KS& 3:_) )/ B `*a)/ &* ? /#


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2._Ra_quyet_dinh_trong_quan_ly.ppt