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2. URBANIZATION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES:

PREINDUSTRIAL TO PRESENT

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Breaking Down The Sources Of Population GrowthDemographic Equation—components of growth• Relating population growth to births, deaths, domestic and

international migration: P2 = P1 + B - D + I – O

P2 = population in time 2P1 = population in time 1

B = BirthsD = DeathsI = In-migrationO = Out-migration

• Net (in-) or (out-) migration = I – O Net international migration** (migration in and out of

United States) Net internal/domestic migration (within United States)

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Net Migration: Definition• Net international migration includes the international

migration of both native and foreign-born populations. Specifically, it includes:

(a) the net international migration of the foreign born

(b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico

(c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States

(d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas.

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FLORIDA EXAMPLE

• Florida: P2 = 2007 = 18,251,243

• Florida's P1 = 2000 = 15,929,825

• Difference = 2,321,418• 2000-2007 Number of births (B) = 1,578,928• 2000-2007 Number of deaths (D) = 1,217,956• Natural Increase (births - deaths) = 360,972• Net international migration = 674,271• Net internal/domestic migration = 1,286,175• Net migration (international + internal/domestic) = 1,960,446• 360,972 + 1,960,446 = 2,321,418

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Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL. MSA, FLORIDA EXAMPLE

• Miami: P2 = 2008 = 5,414,772

• Miami: P1 = 2000 = 5,020,342

• Difference = 394,430• 2000-2008 Number of births (B) = 573,305• 2000-2008 Number of deaths (D) = 395,492• Natural Increase (births - deaths) = 177,813• Net international migration = 439,413• Net internal/domestic migration = -222,796• Net migration (international + internal/domestic) = 216,617• 177,813 + 216,617 = 394,430

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Defining Net Migration Rate• 'Net migration rate' is the difference of in-migrants and out-

migrants of an area in a period of time, divided (usually) per 1,000 inhabitants (considered on either initial or midterm population).

• A positive value represents more people entering a place than leaving it, while a negative value mean more people leaving than entering it.

• Net migration is standardized to account for places with very different sized populations—e.g., Gainesville vs. New York city

– E.g. population in 2000 is 5000– Net in- migration 2000-2005 is 300– Net migration rate is 300/5000 x 1,000 = 60.0

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SYNOPSIS OF URBANIZATION TRENDS IN THE U.S.

• United States in the mid-19th century was predominantly a rural society.

 • Urbanization rates in 1850 by region:

 

U.S.: 15%

NE: 27%

MW: 9%

S: 8%

W: 6%

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Shift from Rural to Urban Society

• Transformation of the U.S. economy from agriculture to manufacturing was most pronounced between 1880 and 1930.

 • Urbanization was rapid during this period.

 • People moved from farms to factories and related jobs into

the large urban centers, the hubs of commerce and industry.

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Immigration Was Crucial

• Another massive population shift also greatly contributed to urban growth.

 • Large number of immigrants from foreign countries/abroad. • Between 1880 and 1930, 28 million people immigrated to

the U.S. • Most settled in the larger urban centers where the jobs

were.

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Urbanization Rates By Region in 1930:

• U.S.: 56%• NE: 78%• MW: 58%• S: 34%• W: 58%

 • Urban growth slowed during depression era (1929-1940)

and during World War II (1940-1945).• Afterwards, urban growth resumed its rapid pace.

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U.S. Urbanization Rates (variable boundaries)

• 1950: 60%• 1960: 63%• 1970: 69%• 1980: 73%• 1990: 78%• 2000: 82.8% (Micropolitan: 10.4%; Noncore: 6.8%)• 2010: 83.7% (Micropolitan: 10.0%; Noncore: 6.3%)

Urbanization Rates By Region in 2010

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REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE PACE OF URBANIZATION

 • Historically there have been unequal current regional

urbanization rates

• Pace of urbanization not always uniform across all regions of the country

• Strong correlation between population and economic growth

 • Very much illustrated In the 1970s

 • During this decade, large industrial- or manufacturing-based

metropolitan areas began to lose jobs and residents to smaller-sized metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan areas.

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Especially True in Northeast and Midwest

• In these regions during the 1970s: Population growth was very low and even negative along

with substantial losses in the numbers employed in manufacturing jobs.

 • Places like:

New York; Philadelphia; Pittsburgh; Detroit; Cleveland; St. Louis; Milwaukee; Buffalo.

 Product of fundamental structural changes in the U.S.

economy. • Resulted in strong regional differences in urbanization.

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Even by the 1960s, Population Growth in

Northeast and Midwest Regions

Lagged Behind South and West

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In NE and MW Metros, DEINDUSTRIALIZATION or the “Scaling Down of Manufacturing Production” in 1970s

Was Driving Force

• Deindustrialization was a response to:Mounting foreign competition.Rising labor costs, often linked to union organizations.High energy costs.Declining profitability of manufacturing firms in U.S.

locations.Growing obsolescence in our industrial infrastructure

(inadequate use of new technologies such as automated machine tools and robots and more sophisticated electronics).

 • From the 1980s onward, growth in individual large

metropolitan areas has depended more on how each fares in the broader economy—both national and global.

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…or Why Detroit’s Demise No Surprise

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Vertical Integration of Firms Gave Way to Vertical Disintegration of Businesses

• Instead of all stages of production occurring as integrated process by a single corporation

• Greater use of outsourcing• Buying components/services from other specialized

producers (IPhone, a contemporary example)• Greater amount of subcontracting to take advantage of

specialized skills of other corporations/businesses• Just-in-time manufacturing systems—Dell desktop

computers• Enabled firms in smaller metropolitan areas to compete

Exemplified by manufacturing –oriented firms in southern metropolitan areas

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The Metropolitan Areas with the Strongest Population and Job Growth include those:

• With knowledge-based/high-tech industries (e.g., Research Triangle Park (RTP) of North Carolina or Silicon Valley, California, Boston). Relying on brainpower, education—i.e., human capital, close to universitiesPharmaceuticals, chemicals, biotechnology, genetic

engineering, computer systems design, software design, telecommunications, robotics, space technology, artificial intelligence, electronics, medical equipment, and plastics

Florida is increasingly attracting biotechnology firms • Where businesses were able to recruit labor in relatively low-

wage, nonunion, and less regulated areas of the South.Employees often consisted of Hispanic immigrants

• Emphasizing recreation and leisure-time activities (Florida example, Orlando).

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The Metropolitan Areas with the Strongest Population and Job Growth include those:

• Housing international, national and regional headquarters for major corporations engaged in “advanced service” or “producer services.”

Examples: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, Miami, Atlanta, Washington, DC

Consistent with U.S. economy that moved from predominantly goods-producing (manufacturing) to service provision.

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Definition of Advanced (Producer) Services

• Firms, companies, or corporations providing business and professional services to other professional and

business entities.

• Examples: large commercial banks, diversified financial companies, large insurance companies, corporate

law firms, accounting firms, management consulting firms, large advertising firms.

Contrast With Other Consumer-focused Services:

• Social services (health education, hospital, education, welfare, religion, postal, government).

• Personal services (hotel, eating, drinking places, repairs, laundry, barber, beauty shops, entertainment)—

accountants serving individual consumers; banks serving local community.

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Producer Services Found in Larger Places

• Cluster in areas of strong corporate or government office presence—who are their primary clients

• National and regional headquarters for major corporations, banks, advertising, law, accounting, management firms

• Often cater to international clients• Contribute to agglomeration economies: locational

concentrations of related economic and research activities. • That is:

Large pools of laborSpecialized business servicesTraining facilitiesResearch institutions

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The Metropolitan Areas with the Strongest Population and Job Growth include those:

• That have strong manufacturing sectors:

The Metropolitan Areas with the Strongest Population and Job Growth include those:

• That are distribution centers for national consumer markets (e.g., Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver)—note, all airport hubs

• Emphasize extractive industries (natural commodities)E.g., Houston, oil & gasBismarck & Fargo, ND, agricultural products, oil, natural

gas, coal (and huge potential for wind power)But Fargo also thriving because of specialty farm-

equipment industry and also emerging as high tech hub

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GENERALIZATIONS ABOUT

URBANIZATION

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Urbanization Rates: Not Everywhere the Same• Urbanization will continue as an important trend, but metropolitan growth

will occur in different geographic regions than in the past and for different reasons (e.g., decline of Florida’s space industry).

 • During period 2000-2010 MSA growth grew by 10.8%; Compared with

5.9% in Micropolitan statistical areas; and 1.8% in nonmetropolitan areas Continuing historical trend whereby larger MSAs (over 500,000 in size)

generally have grown faster than smaller MSAs

• And between 2000-2010, growth rates in the South & West greatly exceeded the rates in the Midwest and Northeast. Continuing trend for past half century whereby MSA growth in West and

South regions were higher than those in the Northeast and Midwest.

In decade of 2000s and 2011, the South accounted for 53% of nation’s growth; the West 32%; the Midwest, 8%; and the Northeast, 6%.

 

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Population Growth by Region: 2010-2013

• Between 2010 and 2013 51 percent of the population increase in the 52

major metropolitan areas (over 1 million population) was in the South.

The West accounted for 30 percent of the increase, followed by the Northeast at 11 percent and eight percent in the North Central (Midwest).

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Fastest Growing Metropolitan Areas: Commonalities

• Mostly in Sun Belt states• Strong domestic migration or growth in foreign-born population• Strong Texas representation—often energy rich• Low population densities, auto oriented places (contrast with

places like Boston, New York, or Chicago)• Generally more affordable housing• Fast growing under age 15 population

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Sunbelt States

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Fastest Growing Metropolitan Areas over 1,000,000 Population: 2000-2012

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Slowest Growing Metropolitan Areas over 1,000,000 Population: 2000-2012

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Metropolitan Growth and

The Role of Net Migration

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Population Growth: 2010 to 2013Metropolitan Areas Over 1 Million Population

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Late 1990s: Representative Period

• Between 1995 and 2000:6.2 million people moved to nonmetropolitan territory.

 5.7 million people moved in the opposite direction (from

non-metropolitan to metropolitan areas).

 Metropolitan areas experienced a net domestic out-

migration of about 500,000 people.

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International Migration Plays Major Role

• Domestic or internal migration tells only part of the story, however.

• People from abroad came into the U.S. –1980s & 1990s– especially to large “immigrant magnet” metropolitan areas.

• Continued in the 2000s decade.• Despite the economic slump and increased security

measures associated with the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

• Other metro areas, especially with declining populations, increasingly view immigrants as source of population and labor to compensate for “brain drains” of domestic migrants.

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Immigrants a Major Source of Metropolitan Growth

• Between 1995 and 2000, metropolitan areas received an influx of over 6.8 million movers from abroad or outside the United States.

 • Thus, overall, metropolitan areas experienced net in-

migration.

 • Almost half of immigrants went to metros with over 5 million

population. Which had the largest domestic migration net losses

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Immigrants Compensated for Domestic NetOut-migration from Metros

• The importance of moves from foreign countries is substantial.

 • Thus, even as the largest metros experienced a net loss of

2.1 million domestic/internal migrants, they benefited from an influx of 3.3 million immigrants from abroad/foreign countries.

 • The following tables illustrate the relationship between

domestic and international migration.

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VERY SOLEMN

DEMOGRAPHICS—

Especially for Florida Metros

2007-2009 Migration Declines• Long a magnet for retirees• More recently for broader segments of the population• Florida led the nation in domestic in-migration for the first

half of this decade. • Decline in the construction and real estate industries

Housing overbuilding and high level of foreclosures made it one of first states to show dramatic declines in migration

• Florida’s migration this decade peaked between 2003 and 2005 and began to taper in 2005–2006

• A surprising switch from net in- to net out-migration between 2006–2007 and 2007–2008

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2007-2009 Migration Declines• Major contributor to Florida’s migration loss was its

migration exchange with the Northeast • Between 2007 and 2008, fully 48 of Florida’s 67 counties

showed reduced in-migration or greater outmigration• Devastated the state’s economy• Meanwhile, Florida began to export migrants on net to other

parts of the South by 2005–2006• Major migration gainers from Florida include Georgia, North

Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas• Signaled a truly statewide loss of magnetism.

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Florida Begins to Recover

Florida’s Recovery Continues in 2011

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