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2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2017. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
3rd AIEE Energy Symposium
Marco FalconeDecember 11, 2018
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global trends continue to evolve
+1.7 billionpeople
2xGDP
+25%demand
+10%CO2 emissions
-45%CO2 intensity
2016
Global middle class
Billion people
Latin America
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
Source: The Brookings Institution
Africa/Middle East
2040
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
GDP
Trillion 2010$
OECD
Non-OECD
Non-OECD leads economic expansion
GDP growth
Trillion 2010$
Europe
United States
China
Other AP
Africa
India
1.9% AAGR
4.1% AAGR
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
2018 Outlook for Energy
DemandGlobal energy demand will continue to rise through 2040,
reflecting its fundamental link to expanding prosperity and
better living standards for a growing population worldwide.
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Global efficiency limits demand growthEnergy demand
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Energy savings
China
India
Other AP Non-OECD
Rest of World
Share of primary energy demand by region
Share of Quadrillion BTUs
United States
Other OECD
China
India
Other Non-OECD
Europe OECD
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Energy demand varies by sector
Primary energy demand by sector
Quadrillion BTUs
'16
'25
'40
Other renewables
Biomass
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
2018 Outlook for Energy
SupplyWhat resources will be available to meet the world’s
increasing demand for more energy?
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Liquids demands driven by transportation & chemicals
MBDOE
By Region and Sector
North America
Latin America
Europe Russia/Caspian
Africa Middle East
Asia Pacific
Light-duty transportation
Chemicals
Other
'16'25 '40
Commercial transportation
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
North America
Latin America
Europe Russia/Caspian
Africa Middle East
Asia Pacific
'16 '40 '25
Net exports Net imports
Natural Gas Liquids
Other / Biofuels
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Demand
Liquids supply highlights regional diversity
MBDOE
By region and sector
.
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Gas supply highlights regional diversity
Gas demand by supply type
BCFD
Local unconventional production
Local conventional production
Net imports
Pipeline imports
Net exports
North America
Latin America
Africa Europe Russia/Caspian
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Total production
LNG imports
Share of growth 2016-2040 Supply type Production
.
'16 '40 '25 '00
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
2018 Outlook for Energy
Pursuing a 2oC pathwayAdvancing the application of cost-effective technology solutions
around the world will likely be critical to pursue a 2oC pathway
while helping keep energy reliable and affordable for an
expanding population.
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Assessed 2oC Scenarios: 2040 Global energy demand
2040 Global demand by model and energy type
Exajoules
Oil w/ CCS
Oil
Gas w/ CCS
Gas
Coal w/ CCS
CoalNuclearBioenergy w/ CCS
Bioenergy
Non-bio renewables
Based on EMF27 full technology / 450 ppm scenarios (Assessed 2oC Scenarios)EMF27 full technology scenarios data downloaded from: https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Significant investments needed to meet demand
Excludes biofuels
Global liquids supplyestimatesMBDOE
Global gas supply estimates
BCFD
Estimated natural
decline in the absence of
further investment
Existing supplies
Existing supplies
2000
Average demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios*
2000
High demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios
Low demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios
Average demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios*
Outlook demand
Outlook demand
*2oC scenarios based on EMF 27 full technology / 450 ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway (Assessed 2oC Scenarios)
*2oC scenarios based on EMF 27 full technology / 450 ppm cases targeting a 2oC pathway (Assessed 2oC Scenarios)
High demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios
Low demand based on Assessed 2oC Scenarios
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Technology key to reducing societal costs of 2oC pathway
Existing Advances Breakthrough
Costs borne by society to lower GHG
emissions
(e.g. natural gas, wind, solar)
(e.g. negative emissions, storage,CCS, advanced biofuels)
Policy / Technology matrix is illustrative only
Hypothetical ~2oC policy/ technology frontier
Technology advancement
Low policycosts
High policycosts
Technology advances likely to reduce costs of policies on society
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ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy
Technology Contributes to the Fuel Mix
Global Mix of Fuels
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)
Unconventional Gas
Deepwater, Oil Sands, Tight Oil