3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio … · 2017-04-10 · XVI Volatility Index was Green (a RED signal for us) Whilst up ..its still well into the

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Week 44- 2017-Apr-10


Current Portfolio Valuation.

Portfolio Valuation 2017/April/10 is $285,933 According to Lincoln the portfolio is increasing at a

rate of 17% per annum and this week+1 day we were up about $5,000 or 2%


Comment. We currently have 8 securities and about $52k in cash

Losers >10% -

Losers 5.1%-10% -

Losers 0%-5% -

Gainers 0%-5% 3

Gainers 5.1%-10% -

Gainers10.1% - 20% 3

Gainers 20%-30% -

Gainers 30%-40% 2

Gainers >40% -

Portfolio comment.

All Stocks ended green (to Friday last week) other than ANZ, FMG, IHOO, IHVV, which ended slightly

RED (4 out of 8 stocks green).

All stocks are still in hold territory. To me FMG increasingly looks a little weak and increasingly looks

like it’ll hit a sell signal. If it keeps trending down, we’ll sell it. If it turns up we’ll continue to hold.

That’s the game we’re playing here.

Conversely AGL has had a very strong run in recent times. If you check it’s fundamentals on Lincoln

you’ll see it has a very high Dec 2016 PE of 51x, however it also has a June 2017 forecast for 98% EPS

growth and hence a forecast June PE of only 25x. Whatever is going on our portfolio is certainly

benefiting.

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Week 44- 2017-Apr-10 Status of US Markets on 2017-04-10 (thurs for Lincoln charts and Friday for non Lincoln charts.

Dow. Closed RED for the week Futures Green (Monday) Still within “buy territory…has not crossed down”

S&P 500 was RED week to thurs. FUTURES Green on Monday

Nasdaq. RED for Week (Just). Futures GREEN

Russell 2000 Green for week, Futures Green

Vix…. closed RED (which I’ll take to be a GREEN signal for our portfolio) Note the slight kick up over recent weeks

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Week 44- 2017-Apr-10 Status of Australian Markets

XAO All Ordinaries Index. RED but still above the line. Positive Gap formed in MMA, ROAR close to 20%.

XMD Midcap 50 RED and above the line Small positive Gap formed in the MMA. ROAR trending Close to 20%

XSO Small Ords GREEN…and now seems to be clearly ABOVE the buy line MMA not open…at least the short term black lines have appeared above the longer term blue lines ROAR now ABOVE Zero…

XVI Volatility Index was Green (a RED signal for us) Whilst up ..it’s still well into the lower range since this index has become available since about March 2013.

In summary the main US Markets were RED albeit Green Futures for Monday.

ASX markets were ever so slightly down last week and the volatility index is UP.

I’m fascinated to see that small ords has “crossed up” in the past week. This seems like it might be

good news for an actively managed portfolio. It may be time to open up the purses depending upon

what we see happen on Monday (particularly Monday night in USA)


Allow me to add a new index to this newsletter.

Let’s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria

1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory

2. Dividend yield >2.5%

3. PE <15

4. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 5

5. Enterprise value above $500m

6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull)

So what we’re looking for is strong stocks that seem cheap. Each week we’ll count the number of

stocks that fit that criteria. In a high priced market…there will be few of these. In a low priced

market…there’ll be more of these…so perhaps this will allow us to better understand where the

market is. Why do this? In a low price market…(down market)…we’ll be looking to buy dividend

stocks….in turning market or increasing market…we switch to growth stocks…so perhaps this will

assist us to understand where we are.

No comments this week…I think way too few data points to any inferences.

We look for either a sharp increase or decrease in stocks found by this filter.

If there are many stocks here then “buying value stocks might be a good strategy”….

If there are few perhaps it indicates we’re at the top of the market?

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4/02/2017 4/03/2017 4/04/2017 4/05/2017

Search for Value count


Comments on Star and Borderline Stocks.

Stocks in Sell Territory. If I had these stocks I should have sold out.

Stocks that closed Green for week AND are rising at above or close to 20% per annum (based on ROAR) AND are ‘above the line’. In other words worth assessment for possible rating as a buy.

Star Stocks APX, BBN, CCP, HSN, RCG RFG, RFG, RHC, SAR, TNE, VTG

Star Stocks ALL, COH, IRI, NCK, NHF, NST, RRL, SSM,

Borderline Stocks CKF, DMP, VOC

Borderline Stocks REA ,

Lots of Red and yet by far the most greens I’ve seen for several months now.

Charts worth thinking about.

REA has surged from a low of about $48 last October to just under $60.

ALL** check it’s graph. It has not had a clear sell signal for a long time. If you followed this

active trading system and held that stock from about $3 back in Jan 2013 it would have been

comfortably held until now with a valuation above $18 (plus a smallish dividend). This is

exactly the kind of stock that the Newsletter portfolio is looking for.


Selling Report. Nothing to report

I’m guessing that perhaps FMG will hit a sell signal soon

Buying Report. Nothing to report

For an actively managed portfolio we’ve done little in recent times.


Stocks worth assessing as suitable for

purchase if conditions are right this week

The following stocks are on our potential buy list and closed Green for the week

A2M**, ALL**, AGL**, AZJ, CGC**, CGF**, CHC, NCK, NDQ**, RFF**, WPL

Next week I’ll refresh the target buying list for this portfolio. As you can see from above I personally

hold quite a few stocks that are found using the exactly the same strategies as this newsletter

portfolio


Bonus Charts:

In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart Comment

WPL

1 year return inc div 38%

Approx 5% grossed up div

When a top 50 stock grows like this…if I jump on board I know I can get out easily if it turns around.

Worth checking out.

NDQ** Beta shares NASDAQ ETF

Return incl div over 1 year 22.5%

One problem is daily turnover of only $360,000


MND Mining services stocks were on the nose for a long time.

Stong rating

Dividends over 7%

1 year return inc div 97% Can it continue?


Parting comment

Oil prices seem to have sharply declined

Bond prices…seem to be increasing sharply (which usually happens when interest rates are on the

way down

Coper base been roughly flat for the past few months (around the 2.65 mark).

What does it all mean?

Good luck trying to make sense of the entire market

Instead we’ll try to pick stocks with good (allegedly) fundamentals which the market likes

and crowds are lining up to buy them. We’ll also sell those when the crowd decides it’s time

to look elsewhere.

We’re not smart enough to be pure fundamentalists.

Have a good week

Have a good week

Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.


Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I’m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service…it’s a great service and I feel great value for money!

I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll mark the ones that I own with (**)…however it’s safe for you to imagine that I’m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

Documents

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio … · 2017-04-10 · XVI Volatility Index was Green (a RED signal for us) Whilst up ..its still well into the