Globalization Pillar

Eric Newman

Not all countries look like China

Or Brazil

Some look like this

National differences

• Social rather than legal contracts• Corruption• Postal systems• Different rates and types of piracy• General rule

– Law, primary care, nursing, building, civil/electrical engineering veers toward local, culture bound

– Math, hard sciences, medical specialties tend to be more universal

… different in

• The role of intermediaries can vary, e.g. in Japan, libraries have less influence on budgets, less command of English

• Demographics vary- China is building, opening universities; Japan is consolidating them.

• Prices – China are a fraction of ours (but so are salaries)– Imported book markup capped by law in India– Japan and Europe prices are higher.

Publishing issues

• Multiple publication, copyright and medical ethics• English language ability may not match quality of the

underlying science• Large clinical studies less common• Some places in China offer a bounty based on Impact

Factor• In Japan, books monitoring where your best chances

of being published are based on nationality• Cross-national cooperation growing in China- US, but

also Australia, Japan, Korea

Areas of scholarly publishing vary

• Each column represents a country; each color a subject area

• Look at the different mix, one country with 75% of the papers from Natural Sciences, but negligible Medicine.

Patterns of Collaboration and Citation

• France produces physics and chemistry papers with more engineering applications

• Germany more theoretical

• Spain emphasizes agricultural applications

• China and Japan applied mathematics

World by Scientific Research 2001

© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

STMS in 2020? 2030?

Adapted from © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

2001, Watch China, India & Brazil

© Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

2020, 2030 Again-China, India, Brazil

Adapted from © Copyright SASI Group (University of Sheffield) and Mark Newman (University of Michigan).

Global Forecasting

BRICs

• Goldman Sachs coined the term BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in 2001

• Drew attention to the growing importance of these economies to world growth

• Forecast China surpassing Germany, UK and Japan in the size of its economy

Key Economic Drivers

• Demographic trends• GDP trends• Exchange rates trends• Research and Development spending• Education• Political and Currency stability • Legal system and corruption

Population Pyramids as destiny

China 1982 China 2000 China 2030UN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 11

China’s Demographic DividendUN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 14

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

%

Producers3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5% Consumers0.0%

-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%

1982 1992 2002 2012 2022 2032 2042

Population Pyramids as destiny

China 1982, China 2000, Japan 1950 China 2030India, Africa 2010 Japan 2010, 2030

UN/POP/PD/2005/5 25 July 2005, p. 11 Europe 2020

GDP % Growth

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

ChinaIndiaJapanEast & South AsiaWorld

World Economic Outlook 2010

R&D % Spend by RegionSEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.

05

1015202530354045

North America

Europe Asia-Pacific Rest of World

1996- $525 Billion

2007- $1.1 Trillion

R&D Spending $ Billions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

United StatesEU-27Asia-8

SEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.

R&D DemographicsAverage Annual Growth %

in number researchers 1995-2007SEI 2010: Global Patterns of R&D Expenditures Chapter 4.

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12%

Tertiary Education by Country

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

USA Russia Japan China India German UK Brazil

• 1980 (73 million) • 2000 (194 million)

Scholarly Publishing Drivers

• Educational spending and enrollment• Numbers of and income of professionals• Government policies and library budgets• Patents, pharmaceutical spending• Language:

– English completely supplants the local language in India and some small but rich markets- SE Asia, Scandinavia.

– But local language predominates for Practitioners in larger countries- Germany, Japan, China, Brazil

Payoff: China’s % share of research

05

10152025

1999-20032004-08

Dan Strempel

• Simba Information has been serving the publishing industry since 1975

• Dan and I working together since 2007• Goldman Sachs also uses Simba!