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4 Trends for Spirits in 2016Opinion | 20 Apr 2016

From Scotch Loch to Whisky Tsunami 

The whiskey industry's once notoriously placid

lake of oversupply has already witnessed the

mounting ripple effects of a generational shift

towards brown spirits. The waves of interest

will retain momentum although not all proverbial barrels will be harmoniously lifted by

the rising tide. Bourbon and Irish varietals will continue capturing the millennial

zeitgeist through their accessibility credentials, increasingly more premium expressions

and radical experimentation initiatives at the same time that Japanese mystique and

Canadian leftfield aspirations will bring those segments under the limelight. Scotch will

belatedly appropriate its boisterous siblings' more joyous positioning, semantic

references and bold innovative steps as the fetishisation of age statements and tartan

has run its course.

From once sacrilegious concepts such as hybrid whiskey products to personalised oak

infusion contraptions and from the introduction of special mixer pairings to a plethora

of boutique distilleries finally bringing their aged stock to market, the whiskey tsunami

will be felt across the world. Nevertheless, while amended and new international trade

agreements will provide additional fuel, the downside risks from the category's generic

and increasingly greater focus on higher end offerings makes it especially vulnerable to

macro-economic headwinds rising on the horizon.Vodka: After the Bender, the Hangover 

Caught between a maturity and stagnation-induced state of torpor in its Eastern

European bastion and the hard reality of committing the cardinal sins of over

indulgence, navel gazing and inflated pricing in western markets cyclically abandoning

the category, the hangover for vodka will set in further. Following decades of

unflinching, seemingly infinite growth, its short to medium term future will hence

become increasingly more polarised.

On the one hand, micro offerings will capitalise on their genuine or perceived artisanal

credentials adopting increasingly clearer localisation kudos while embracing a 'farm to

bottle' mentality to support their premium pricing.

On the other hand mass mainstream brands will most likely back pedal and hesitantly

step out of the overcrowded craftsmanship bandwagon to return to their

unpretentious, utilitarian roots and a focus on high energy environments, shot

occasions and the support of musical or cultural scenes relevant to the younger

cohorts of the millennial demographic. Following the cannibalising effect resulting from

the congested flavoured innovation arena, planned obsolescence and quicker

activation periods will de-clutter the category and make it more resilient to the

volatility of fads.

Spiros Malandrakis

Senior Analyst -Alcoholic Drinks

 

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© Euromonitor International 2016

Smells Like Latin Spirit 

Tequila - and its more niche, artisanal sibling- mescal, rum , cachaça and pisco will

continue finding their way to trend setting metropolitan western hotspots , satiating

the demand of a promiscuous Gen X demographic for exotic alternatives to staple

categories while at the same time adopting an increasingly more premium positioning.

While their appeal has the potential to be universal, it will be primarily fuelled by

favourable hispanic demographics and will be anchored on communicating celebratory

positioning and depth of options through educational campaigns as well as through

liberalised trade agreements and the media spotlight capturing international sports

events and drinking rituals in their host countries.

Cognac: A sidecar named diversification 

The category's re-alignment towards the US, the African American community and

lower-end varietals will continue providing a hedging mechanism against the still

severely challenged Chinese market.

Mixability , flavour sophistication, higher abv extensions and targeting whiskey

occasions and positioning will cement the category's renaissance in North America and

put it back into the fray in other western markets. Considering the rising downside

risks of still operating heavily in a Chinese economy assuming landing position, further

regional as well as pricing diversification will become ever more vital.

For further insight, please contact Spiros Malandrakis, Alcoholic Drinks Analyst at

Euromonitor International

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