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Task 2

TradeData International Pty Ltd Contract No S18410 Subject: TA-7137 (PAK): Accelerating EconomicTransformation Program Page 1

Task2 Pakistan Acquired Revealed Comparative Advantage

This task consists of two large SITCs where Pakistan has acquired a revealed comparative advantage. The SITCs are:

1. 6538 - Woven fabrics of discontinuous fibres mixed with other fibres; and2. 6539 - Pile and Chenille fabrics;

International trade in the Pile and Chenille fabrics are expanding strongly with large increases in exports from Chinato the EU and the USA. The growth is specifically in Chenille and Cut Wrap Pile fabrics both of which haveexperienced declining or stable average prices over time. Pakistan is only ever a very minor supplier of theseproducts and from 2006 trade from Pakistan has all but ceased.

The performance of the second component Woven fabrics of discontinuous fibres mixed with other fibres - is thereverse of the first. Import volumes have declined strongly particularly in artificial fibres mixed with man-madefibres. The trade is essentially into the EU.

Exports from Pakistan peaked in 2005 with exports to the USA which all but ceased after 2005. Thereafter trade isonly very small and is to the EU.

One explanation for the peak in Pakistan exports to the USA in 2005 is the withdrawal of quotas in the USA after2005. Thus the trade prior to 2006 was made under quota and the analysis revealing a comparative advantagegreater than 1 at this time was in part due to the quota arrangements rather than a real revealed comparativeadvantage.

We also met a number of firms that produce a number of fabrics within these SITCs like , Interloop, ColoradoSports, Chenab, HSSHID, Gulahmed, Amtex, Shama, Kauser and others - and export most of their production buttheir exports do not fall under these SITCs. This is because these firms further process their fabrics into final productsand then export the final products. These final products maybe garment, bed linen, other household textiles, orspeciality products. This was a central characteristics of the elite firms we interviewed that is they were more fullyintegrated into producing final goods, fully packaged, and ready for sale for the retailer to the final consumer.

In summary, Pakistan is a miniscule exporter of the products under SITC 6538 and 6539 and what exports that didoccur were strongly influenced by previous quota arrangements. With the withdrawal of quotas Pakistan exportshave all but ceased.

Appendix A lists a more detailed analysis of imports of SITC 6538 in the USA, Europe and Japan and focuses on thoseproducts where Pakistan has participated in the trade. Appendix B provides a similar analysis for SITC 6539.

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Appendix ASITC 6538 - Fabrics, woven, less 85% of discontinuous regenerated fibres

RCA RatingThis SITC was chosen as an example of a highly sophisticated activity where Pakistan performed wellenough to acquire and maintain an RCA > 1.

HS BreakdownTable A1 lists the 17 6-digit HS codes associated with this SITC. Essentially the fabrics within this SITC arebroken down into 4 categories as follows:

Woven (bleached or unbleached);Dyed;Woven of different colours; and

Printed.

In turn each of these four categories consists of less than 85% per cent of artificial stable fibres and each isthen combined with either:

Cotton;Wool or other fine animal hair;Man made filaments; orOther fabrics.

There is one mor e additional HS code within this SITC which is 630800 = Sets consisting of woven fabricand yarn, for making up into rugs, tapestries, embroidered table cloths or serviettes, or similar textilearticles, put up in packings for retail sale

SITC Performance

Chart Box A lists a range of summary charts for this SITC. Charts A1 an A2 show imports by which fibre theartificial fibres are mixed with, first by volume and the secondly by value, between 2001 and 2008. Thetotal tonnage of imports has declined by 60% over the period and these declines have been fairlycontinuous. Chart A2 shows that import values have been more of less maintained from 2005 to 2008.Thus with declining tonnages average prices have increased strongly during this period. This is seen in

Chart A6 where average prices have all increased except for wool which declined in 2007 and 2008.

The declines in both value and tonnages have mostly been in artificial fibres mixed with man-made fibres.Artificial fibres mixed with natural fibres and other fibres have not declined.

The vast majority of imports enter into Europe rather than USA or Japan and likewise the decline inimports has been essentially a decline in imports of fabrics made from a mixture of artificial fibres mixedwith man-made fibres and imported into Europe.

Chart A4 shows that imports sourced from Pakistan are only very small peaking at $US 1.5 million in 2005

and then declining rapidly thereafter to only $US 373,000 in 2008. This peak was driven by large increases

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Chart BOX B

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5,000

10,000

15,000

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25,000

30,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

China Taiwan France Germany Turkey Italy

South Korea Belux Spain U.K. Others

Tonnes

Chart B1. EU27 Imports of 55162200 - WOVEN FABRICS CONTAIN INGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES, MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR

SOLELY WITH MAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED by Supply Country

-5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart B2. EU27 Imports of 55162200 - WOVEN FABRICSCONTAINING PREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE

FIBRES, MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH MAN-MADEFILAMENT, DYED by Impo rting Country

U.K. Germany Romania France Italy Spain

Be lux Ne th erl ands Bu lgari a Gr ee ce Ot he rs

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Chart B3. EU27 Imports s From Pakistan of 55162200 WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% A RTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES, MIXED PRINC IPALLY OR SOLELY

WITH MAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED

Quantity - Kilograms Unit Price - $US / KG

55162200

0

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Chart B4 EU27 Imports s From Pakistan of 55162200 WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES, MIXED PRINCIPALLY ORSOLELY WITH MAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED


55162200

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3,500,000

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00

Market Segments

China Taiwan France TurkeyGermany South Korea Belux U.K.Netherlands Italy Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart B5. EU27 Imports of WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES,MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH MAN-MADEFILAMENT, DYED

2004

55162200

-

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600,000

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00

Market Segments

China Taiwan Germany Turkey

South Korea Belux Italy France

U.K. Spain Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart B6. EU27 Imports of WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 8 5% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES,MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH MAN-MADEFILAMENT, DYED

2008

55162200

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EU27 Imports of 55169200 - WOVEN FABRICS CONTAINING PREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85%ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLEWITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED

Chart BOX C list charts that outline the import performance of this product into Europe and Pakistans participationin this trade.

Import volumes peak in 2004 at 7,000 tonnes with China as by far the largest supplier with 50% of the market.Thereafter import volumes decline to be around 2,200 tonnes in 2008. Most of these declines have come from Chinaand to a lesser extent Italy the next largest supplier. The larger markets in Europe in the peak 2004 year were Franceand to a lesser extent Germany, UK, Spain and Belux. All markets have declined significantly since 2004 with theexception of Germany.

Chart C3 shows there has been only one sale from Pakistan of any significance 12 tonnes in the middle of 2006 toCyprus. This data was not seen in the Pakistan export data. The Pakistan exporters database showed only two smallshipments of this product in 2007 to an unknown destination country.

Chart C4 shows Import volumes are highly seasonal higher in the end/start of each year and lower in the middle of each year. Import volumes decline substantially from early 2005. By late 2008 peak season sales are only a quarter of what they were in early 2005 and trough season sales only half of previous periods.

Associated with the decline in import volumes since mid 2007 has been a large increase in average prices. Betweenlate 2006 and late 2007 prices have doubled.

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Task 2


Chart BOX C

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7,000

8,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

China Italy France Germany Taiwan Turkey

Belux U.K. South Korea Spain Others

Tonnes

Chart C1. EU27 Imports of 55169200 - WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER

THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL

HAIR OR MAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED by Supply Country

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart C2. EU27 Imports of 55169 200 -WOV EN FABRICSCONTAINING PREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE

FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY ORSOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FI NE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN-MADE

FILAMENT, DYED by Importing Country

U.K. France Germany Spain Romania Belux

I tal y Ne th erl an ds Bu lgari a Po lan d Ot he rs

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Chart C3 EU27 Imports s From Pakistan of 55169200 WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE

MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN -MADE FILAMENT, DYED


55169200

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Chart C4 EU27 Imports s of 551 69200 WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 8 5% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN

THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR ORMAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED


55169200

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1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

$ 0.0 0 $ 5.0 0 $ 10 .0 0 $ 15 .0 0 $ 20 .0 0 $ 25 .00 $ 30 .0 0

Market Segments

China Belux Italy FranceCzech Rep Taiwan Germany U.K.Turkey Spain Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart C5. EU27 Imports of WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRESBY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY ORSOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR ORMAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED

2004

55169200

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250,000

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00

Market Segments

China Taiwan Turkey GermanyPortugal South Korea India Italy

France U.K. Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart C6. EU27 Imports of WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BYWEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY ORSOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN-MADE FILAMENT, DYED

2008

55169200

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EU27 Imports s of 55169400 WOVEN FABRICS CONTAINING PREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85%ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLEWITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN-MADE FILAMENT, PRINTED

Chart BOX D list charts that outline the import performance of this product into Europe and Pakistans participationin this trade.

Europe imports peaked in 2004 at 2,106 tonnes before declining to 922 tonnes in 2006. All the major suppliers in2004 subsequently reduced their exports to Europe in the next two years. Note in 2005 there was a usually largeshipment from Poland which has not been repeated. Since 2006 import volumes have increased slightly to 1,124tonnes in 2008.

The major suppliers to Europe in 2008 were Turkey, Austria, China and the United Kingdom. The major receivingmarkets in 2008 were Germany, Romania and France. Hungary was important in 2004 and Czech Republic in 2005.

Chart D3 shows Pakistan is only an occasional and only a very small scale supplier to Europe. There were occasionalshipments of between 7 and 12 tonnes a month up until late 2004. After that there were some extremely small scaleshipments only one or two hundred kilograms these went to the United Kingdom. Maybe these were sampletype or promotional shipments. In September 2008 there was another shipment of 7 tonnes from Pakistan to theUnited Kingdom.

There is only one shipment in the Pakistan sourced export data of this product. This was in 2007 to un unknowndestination.

From the middle of 2005 to the middle of 2006 average prices have increased from around $US10 per kilogram toaround $US 35 per KG. Associated with these price rises were a substantial decline in import volumes from around150 tonnes a month to around 70 tonnes a month. Average prices declined substantially late in 2008 and this isassociated with only a moderate increase in import volumes.

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Task 2


Chart BOX D

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500

1,000

1,500

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tur ke y A ustr ia C hina Spain Cze ch Re p P oland

Germany U.K. France Italy Others

Tonnes

Chart D1. EU27 Imports of 55169400 - WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININ GPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER

THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMALHAIR OR MAN-MADE FILAMENT, PRINTED by Supply Country

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500

1,000

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart D2. EU27 Imports of 55169400 - WOVEN FABRICSCONTAINI NG PREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE

FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY ORSOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN-MADE

FILAMENT, PRINTED by Importing Country

Germany Romania France U.K. Spain Hungary

Cze ch Re p It al y Ne th erl an ds Bul gari a Ot he rs

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Chart D3 EU27 Imports s From Pakistan of 55169400 WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE

MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN-MADE FILAMENT, PRINTED


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Chart D4 EU27 Imports s Fr om Pakistan of 5516940 0 WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN

THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY OR SOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR ORMAN-MADE F ILAMENT, PRINTED


55169400

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Market Segments

China Turkey Czech Rep AustriaFrance Germany Netherlands U.K.Italy U.S.A. Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart D5. EU27 Imports of WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRESBY WEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPA LLY ORSOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR ORMAN-MADE FIL AMENT, P RINTED

2004

55169400

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$ 0.0 0 $ 2.0 0 $ 4.0 0 $ 6.0 0 $ 8.0 0 $ 10 .0 0 $ 1 2.0 0 $ 14 .0 0

Market Segments

Austria China Turkey U.K.

Palestine Czech Rep Italy Slovakia

Germany Switzerland Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart D6. EU27 Imports o f WOVEN FABRICS CONTAININGPREDOMINANTLY, BUT < 85% ARTIFICIAL STAPLE FIBRES BYWEIGHT, OTHER THAN THOSE MIXED PRINCIPALLY ORSOLELY WITH COTTON, WOOL, FINE ANIMAL HAIR OR MAN-MADE FILAM ENT, PRINTED

2008

55169400

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EU27 Imports of 63080000 - SETS CONSISTING OF WOVEN FABRIC AND YARN, WHETHER ORNOT WITH ACCESSORIES, FOR MAKING UP INTO RUGS, TAPESTRIES, EMBROIDEREDTABLECLOTHS OR SERVIETTES, OR SIMILAR TEXTILE ARTICLES, PUT UP IN PACKINGS FORRETAIL SALE (EXCL. SETS FOR MAKING UP INTO ARTICLES

Chart BOX E list charts that outline the import performance of this product into Europe and Pakistans participationin this trade.

Import volumes increased over the 2005 to 2007 period from just over 2,000 tonnes to 3,000 tonnes in 2007. Theseincreased sales were mainly from increased imports sourced from Germany, Belux, Czech Republic and China. Intotal imports decline again in 2008. However sales from China continue to grow strongly at the expense of sales fromFrance.

The major destination markets are France and to a lesser extent Spain, Germany and the UK. Import volumesincreased slowly over the period up to mid 2007 where after they declined back to 2001 levels by early 2009.Average prices are remarkably stable around $US 18 per KG over the period.

Imports sourced from Pakistan are only occasional and usually only very small scale up to 10 tonnes. There wasone shipment of 47 tonnes late in 2006.

The Pakistan export data shows that a large number of companies have exported this product in the last couple of years but in total their exports are only small totalling only $US 34,648 in 2008. Most shipments were only a fewhundred dollars each suggesting that Pakistan firms are actively trying to promote themselves with these productsbut have yet to cement themselves are a major supplier.

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Chart BOX E

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France Germany Belux Czech Rep China Italy

Spain India Netherlands U.K. Others

Tonnes

Chart E1. EU27 Imports of 63080000 - SETS CONSISTING OF WOVEN FABRIC ANDYARN, WHETHER OR NOT WITH ACCESSORIES, FOR MAKING UP INTO RUGS,

TAPESTRIES, EMBROIDERED TABLECLOTHS OR SERVIETTES, OR SIMILAR TEXTILE

ARTICLES, PUT UP IN PACKINGS FOR RETAIL SALE (EX

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Chart E2. EU27 Imports of 63080 000 -SETS CONSISTING OF WOVENFABRIC AND YARN, WHETHER O R NOT WITH ACCESSORIES, FO R

MAKING UP INTO RUGS, TAPESTRIES, EMBROIDERED TABLECLOTHSOR SERVIETTES, O R SIMILAR TEXTILE ARTICLES, PUT UP IN

PACKINGS FOR RETAIL SALE (EX

France Spain Germany U.K. Belux Portugal

De nmark Romania Swe de n Austria Othe rs

0

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Chart E3 EU27 Imports s From Pakistan of 63080000 SETS CONSISTING OF WOVEN FABRICAND YARN, WHETHER OR NOT WITH AC CESSORIES, FOR MAKING UP INTO RUGS,

TAPESTRIES, EMBROIDERED TABLECLOTHS OR SERVIETTES, OR SIMILAR TEXTILE ARTICLES,PUT UP IN PACKINGS FOR RE


63080000

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Chart E4 EU27 Imports s From Pakistan of 63080000 SETS CONSISTING OF WOVENFABRIC AND YARN, WHETHER OR NOT WITH ACCESSORIES, FOR MAKING UP INTO

RUGS, TAPESTRIES, EMBROIDERED TABLECLOTHS OR SERVIETTES, OR SIMILARTEXTILE ARTICLES, PUT UP IN PACKINGS FOR RE


63080000

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$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00

Market Segments

Spain France Czech Rep ItalyChina Belux Germany U.S.A.Denmark U.K. Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart E5. EU27 Imports of SETS CONSISTING OF WOVENFABRIC AND YARN, WHETHER OR NOT WITHACCESSORIES, FOR MAKING UP INTO RUGS, TAPESTRIES,EMBROIDERED TABLECLOTHS OR SERVIETTES, ORSIMILAR TEXTILE ARTICLES, PUT UP IN PA CKINGS FORRETAIL SALE (EXCL. SETS FO

2004

63080000

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200,000

250,000

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00

Market Segments

China India Germany Romania

Spain Netherlands Tunisia France

U.K. Belux Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart E6. EU27 Imports of SETS CONSISTING OF WOVENFABRIC AND YARN, WHETHER OR NOT WITH ACCESSORIES,FOR MAKING UP INTO RUGS, TAPESTRIES, EMBROIDEREDTABLECLOTHS OR SERVIETTES, OR SIMILAR TEXTILEARTICLES, PUT UP IN PACKINGS FOR RETAIL SALE (EXCL. SETSFO

2008

63080000

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Task 2


Appendix BSITC 6539 Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres

RCA RatingThis SITC was chosen as an example of a highly sophisticated activity where Pakistan performed wellenough to acquire and maintain an Revealed Comparative Advantage greater than 1.

HS BreakdownTable A1 lists the 6 digit HS code break down associated with this SITC. The SITC consist of fabrics of man-made fibres. The specific fabrics are weft pile, warp pile, cut corduroy and Chenille fabrics. There are twoexclusions as listed in the table.

Table A1 Imports of SITC 6539 Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibresHS6 Code Description

580131 Uncut weft pile fabrics (excl. fabrics of 5802 or 5806) of man-made fibres580134 Warp pile fabrics, epingle (uncut) (excl. fabrics of 5802 or 5806) of man-made fibres580132 Cut corduroy (excl. fabrics of 5802 or 5806) of man-made fibres580133 Weft pile fabrics nes (excl. fabrics of 5802 or 5806) of man-made fibres580135 Warp pile fabrics, cut (excl. fabrics of 5802 or 5806) of man-made fibres580136 Chenille fabrics (excl. fabrics of 5802 or 5806) of man-made fibresExclusions5802 Terry towelling and similar woven terry fabrics, other than narrow fabrics; tufted textile fabrics,

other than carpets5806 Narrow woven fabrics, other than labels and badges; narrow fabrics consisting of warp without

weft assembled by means of an adhesive (bolducs)

SITC Performance

Chart Box A lists a range of summary charts for this SITC. Charts A1 and A2 list imports into EU27, Japanand the USA by 6 digit HS codes listed in Table A1. Imports are dominated by imports of Chenille fabrics of man-made fibres and to a much lesser extent Cut Warp Pile fabrics.

In total imports have grown from around 37,000 tonnes a year in 2003 to just below 70,000 tonnes in 2007and then declined a little in 2008. Imports were valued at just over $US 800 million in 2008. Most of thegrowth is accounted for by increased imports from China and to a lesser extent Turkey. In 2008, China had40% of the market, and Belux and Turkey 16% each.

75% of imports enter Europe and 23% the USA. The growth in the market in recent years has been sharedby both countries. Japan is only a small importer of these fabrics. Imports sourced from Pakistan have onlyever been small and virtually cease in 2008.

This is large import sector of $US 800 million and one where exports from Pakistan were never large andhave all but ceased.

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Task 2


Chart Box A

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart A1. Imports into EU27, Japan and the USA of SITC6539 - Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made

fibres

5 801 36 5 80 135 5 801 33 5 80 13 2 58 01 31 5 80 13 4

Tonnes

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart A 2. Imports into EU27, Japan and the USA of SITC6539 - Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made

fibres

5 801 36 5 801 35 58 013 3 58 01 32 58 01 34 58 01 31

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart A3. Imports of SITC 6539 - by Reporting Country

EU27 Japan U.S.A.

$US mill

-50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008

Chart A4. Imports sourced from Pakistan of SITC 6539 -Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres

5 801 36 5 801 35 5 801 33 5 801 31 5 801 34 5 801 32

$US

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008

Chart A 5. Imports of SITC 6539 - sourced from Pak istanby Reporting Country

EU27 U.S.A.

$US

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart A6. Imports into EU27, Japan and the USA -Average Price Index - SITC 6539

580136 580133 580132

580131 580134 580135

Index 2001 = 100

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Task 2


EU27 Imports s of 58013600 CHENILLE FABRICS, OF MAN-MADE FIBRES (EXCL. TERRYTOWELLING AND SIMILAR WOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILE FABRICS ANDNARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEADING 5806)

Chart Box B list a range of charts outlining the performance of imports into Europe of thisproduct.

Imports are increasing strongly from around 12,000 tonnes in 2003 to 30,000 tonnes in2008. In 2008 imports were valued at $US 323 million. Imports were originally nearly allfrom Belux but over time the growth in imports has been from Czech Republic and China,and to lesser extent a range of other countries.

The major destination countries in Europe are the United Kingdom and Poland and to alesser extent Germany. Much of the growth has come from increased sales into Polandfrom 2004.

In aggregate, import volumes have generally increased from around 500 tonnes a month inearly 2001 to above 2,500 tonnes a month late in 2007. Since then import volumes havedecreased to around 2,000 tonnes a month in early 2009. Average prices are generallybetween $US 10 and $US 12 per KG and have tended to decline throughout 2008.

There are only occasional and small shipments from Pakistan to Europe. Shipments areirregular and generally less than 5 tonnes a month. Between January 2006 and 2009 therewas only one shipment of 500 KGs in January 2009.

The company specific export data obtained from Pakistan government sources showed noexport sales of this product.

A price segmentation analysis in 2008 suggests that there are 3 price market segments as

follows:

$US 5 per KG from China;$US 8 per KG from Turkey;$US 10 to $US 12 per KG from Belgium Luxembourg.

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Task 2


Chart Box B

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart B1. Imports of Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres by source country

Belux China Czech Rep Germany Italy Lithuania

Netherlands Spain Turkey U.K. Others

Tonnes

-50.0

100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart B2. Imports of Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres - by supply country

Belux China Czech Rep Germany Italy Lithuania

Netherl ands Spain Turke y U.K. Others

$US mill

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Chart B3. EU27 Imports from Pakistan of 58013600 CHENILLE FABRICS, OFMAN-MADE FIBRES (EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING AND SIMILAR WOVEN TERRY

FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILE FABRICS AND NARROW WOVEN FABRICS OFHEADING 5806)


58013600

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

Jan-01

Apr-01

Jul-01

Oct-01

Jan-02

Apr-02

Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-03

Oct-03

Jan-04

Apr-04

Jul-04

Oct-04

Jan-05

Apr-05

Jul-05

Oct-05

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Chart B4. EU27 Imports s of 58013600 CHENILLE FABRICS, OF MAN -MADE FIBRES(EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING AND SIMILAR WOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILE

FABRICS AND NARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEADING 5806)


58013600

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

$ 4.0 0 $ 6.0 0 $ 8.0 0 $ 10 .0 0 $ 12 .0 0 $ 14 .0 0 $ 16 .0 0 $ 18 .0 0

Market Segments

Belux Turkey Czech Rep SpainChina Germany Italy NetherlandsPoland Syria Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart B5. EU27 Imports of CHENILLE FABRICS, OF MAN-MADE FIBRES (EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING AND SIMILARWOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILE FABRICS ANDNARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEADING 5806)

2004

58013600

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00

Market Segments

Turkey Belux China Czech Rep

Germany India Italy U.K.

Netherlands Spain Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart B6. EU27 Impo rts of CHENILLE FABRICS, OF MAN -MADE FIBRES (EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING AND SIMILARWOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILE FABRICS ANDNARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEADING 5806)

2008

58013600

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Task 2


EU27 Imports s of 58013500 CUT WARP PILE FABRICS, OF MAN-MADE FIBRES (EXCL.TERRY TOWELLING AND SIMILAR WOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILE FABRICS ANDNARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEADING 5806)

Chart Box C list a range of charts outlining the performance of imports into Europe of thisproduct.

Imports were generally around 12,000 tonnes a year until 2006 when they declined toaround 8,000 tonnes a year. These levels were maintained in 2007 and 2008. In 2008 totalimports were valued at $US 240 million. The decline in volumes in 2006 was mostly due todeclines in supply from Belgium Luxembourg the major supplier. The other major

suppliers are all from Europe Italy and Portugal increased their market shares in 2008.Import volumes are volatile on a month to month basis but stable on a trend basis around900 tonnes a month. However this pattern changes late in 2005 when import volumes fallto around 600 tonnes a month. These declines were associated with a doubling of averageprices from around $US 15 per KG in the second half of 2005 to over $US 30 per KG during2007. Throughout 2008 average prices have fallen back to just above $US 15 per KG byearly 2009 import volumes have also declined further at this time.

There were some occasional small shipments into Europe sourced from Pakistan early inthe decade but no shipments since then.

In 2008, imports arrive into Europe at three principal price points as follows:

At $US 3 per KG with Belux and Germany the major suppliers this price point didnot exist in earlier years;At $US 10 to $US 15 per kg with Portugal and Belux the major suppliers;

At $US19 to $US 22 per KG with Italy and Belux the major suppliers.

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Task 2


Chart Box C

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart C1. Imports of Pile and chenille fabrics , woven, of man-made fibres by source country

Belux China Czech Rep France Germany Italy

Netherlands Portugal Switzerland Turkey Others

Tonnes

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart C2. Imports of Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres - by supply country

Austria Belux China France Germany Italy

Nether lands Portugal Switzer land U.K. Others

$USmill

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Chart C3. EU27 Imports s of 58013500 CUT WARP PILE FABRICS, OF MAN-MADE FIBRES (EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING AND SIMILAR WOVEN TERRYFABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILE FABRICS AND NARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF

HEADING 5806)


58013500

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

J-1

r-1

Jul-01

ct-01

J-

Apr-02

Jl- ct

-Jan-03

r-Jul-03

ct-03

J- r-

Jul-04

ct-

J-

Apr-05

Jl- ct

-05

Jan-06

r-Jl- ct

-J-

Apr-07

Jul-07

ct-

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jl- ct

-J-

Chart C4. EU27 Imports s of 58013500 CUT WARP PILE FABRICS, OF MAN-MADEFIBRES (EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING AND SIMILAR WOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED

TEXTILE FABRICS AND NARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEAD ING 5806)


58013500

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

$4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00 $20.00

Market Segments

Belux Germany Italy Portugal

China Netherlands Denmark France

Turkey Switzerland Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart C5. EU27 Imports of CUT WARP PILE FABRICS, OFMAN-MADE FIBRES (EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING ANDSIMILAR WOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILEFABRICS AND NARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEADING5806)

2004

58013500

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00

Market Segments

Belux Portugal Italy Germany

China Czech Rep Turkey Netherlands

Switzerland France Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart C6. EU27 Imports of CUT WARP PILE FABRICS, OFMAN-MADE FIBRES (EXCL. TERRY TOWELLING ANDSIMILAR WOVEN TERRY FABRICS, TUFTED TEXTILEFABRICS AND NARROW WOVEN FABRICS OF HEADING5806)

2008

58013500

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Task 2


U.S.A. Imports s of 5801350020 WOVEN PILE FABRICS AND CHENILLE FABRICS, OTHERTHAN FABRICS OF HEADING 5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS: CUT WARP PILEFABRICS, NOT EXCEEDING 271 G/M2

This is a small import sector and since 2004 import volumes have been around 500 tonnes ayear with an import value of between $US 10 to 14 million. This small sector is included inthis analysis as it is one where Pakistan previously had export sales to the USA but has lostthese since the beginning of 2006.

The major suppliers are South Korea, China, Mexico, Belgium and the UK. Market shares arefairly stable over time. In 2008, Mexico increased its market share. The UK was a significant

supplier up until 2006 but most of this market share is lost by 2008.Pakistan is only an occasional and very small supplier to the USA usually less than 100 KGa month on an irregular basis. Since early 2006 there have been no shipments fromPakistan. Discussion with firms suggests that these earlier sales were made under quotaand when quotas were withdrawn at the end of 2005 exports from Pakistan ceased.

Throughout 2002 and 2003 average prices were around $US17.50 per KG these increasedduring 2004 to around $US 23 per KG. Associated with these increased prices were reducedimport volumes down to around 40 tonnes a month. Average prices have tended toincrease slowly since then to above $US 25 per KG during 2007. Import volumes havedeclined appreciably late in 2008 and early 2009.

In 2008 there are 4 major price points usually with only one major supplier in each asfollows:

$US6 per KG with China the major supplier this price point did not exist in 2006;

$US 9 per KG with South Korea the major supplier;

$US 15 to $US 17 per KG with Mexico the major supplier; and

Around $US 22 with South Korea the major supplier.

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Task 2


U.S.A. Imports s of 5801360010 WOVEN PILE FABRICS AND CHENILLE FABRICS, OTHERTHAN FABRICS OF HEADING 5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS,CHENILLE YARNS ON ONE SIDE

Import volumes were around 2,000 tonnes a year with a value of less than $US 20 millionup to 2004. After 2004 imports experience huge growth to peak around 11,000 tonnes in2007 before declining somewhat in 2008. Virtually all of this growth is accounted for byincreased imports from China. In 2008 imports were valued at $US 68.5 million.

On a monthly basis Import volumes were generally less than 200 tonnes a month until early2005 after which import volumes increased strongly to over 800 months by late 2006.

These large increases are associated with falling average prices which declined from around$US 10 per KG late in 2004 to around $US 7 per KG by early 2006.

There are only 2 small shipments sourced from Pakistan over the period one in mid 2001and the other in mid 2006.

Imports from China have totally restructured this sector. Formerly imports arrived frommany countries in low volumes at prices between $US 7 to $US 9 per KG. By 2006, therewere large increases in volume but all coming from China at $US 6 per KG. This continuedinto 2008.

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Task 2


Chart Box E

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart E1. Imports of Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres by source country

China India Italy Turkey South Korea Belgium

Brazil Taiwan Germany Mexico Others

Tonnes

-10.020.030.040.050.060.070.0

80.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart E2. Import s of Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres - by supply country

Belgium Brazil China Germany I ndia Italy

N et he rl an ds So ut h K or ea Tai wan Tu rk ey Ot he rs

$USmill

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Chart E3. U.S.A. Imports from Pakistan of 5801360010 WOVEN PILE FABRICSAND CHENILLE FABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING 5802 OR 5806:OF MAN-MA DE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS, CHENILLE YARNS ON ONE SIDE


5801360010

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

Jan-01

Apr-01

Jul-01

Oct-01

Jan-02

Apr-02

Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-03

Oct-03

Jan-04

Apr-04

Jul-04

Oct-04

Jan-05

Apr-05

Jul-05

Oct-05

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Chart E4. U.S.A. Imports s of 5801360010 WOVEN PILE FABRICS AND CHENILLEFABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING 5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS:

CHENILLE FABRICS, CHENILLE YARNS ON ONE SIDE


5801360010

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

$4.00 $9.00 $14.00 $19.00 $24.00 $29.00

Market Segments

China India South Korea Turkey

Italy Brazil Mexico Belgium

Spain Germany Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart E5. U.S.A. Imports of WOVEN PILE FABRICS ANDCHENILLE FABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS,CHENILLE YA RNS ON ONE SIDE

2004

5801360010

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $16.00 $18.00

Market Segments

China India Turkey Brazil

South Korea Belgium Germany Netherlands

Italy Israel Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart E6. U.S.A. Imports of WOVEN PILE FABRICS ANDCHENILLE FABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS,CHENILLE YARNS ON ONE SIDE

2008

5801360010

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Task 2


U.S.A. Imports s of 5801360020 WOVEN PILE FABRICS AND CHENILLE FABRICS, OTHERTHAN FABRICS OF HEADING 5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS,CHENILLE YARNS ON BOTH SIDE

USA imports increased steadily from 1,000 tonnes in 2001 to 8,000 tonnes in 2006 andthese levels have been maintained in 2007 and 2008. The value of these imports are around$US 70 million per year.

The increased imports were mostly sourced from China and India. Between 2003 and 2006Turkey was also a significant supplier but their importance has diminished since then toleave China and India as the two major suppliers.

Average prices have been fairly stable around $US 9 per KG.

There has only ever been only occasional and small volumes sourced from Pakistan and intothe USA of this product. There has been no shipments since early 2006 when quotas werewithdrawn.

The price structure of this sector has simplified over time. In 2004 there were a number of supply countries supplying at a range of prices from $US 6 to $US 12 per KG. By 2008 this

had simplified to a much larger volumes of imports from: China at prices between $US6 and $US 8 per KG; and

India at prices between $US 8 and $US 10 per KG.

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Task 2

TradeData International Pty Ltd Contract No S18410 Subject: TA-7137 (PAK): Accelerating Economic

Chart Box F

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart F1. Imports of Pile and chenill e fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres by source country

China India Mexico Italy South Korea Turkey

Belgium Brazil Germany Spain Others

Tonnes

-10.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Chart F2. Imports of Pile and chenille fabrics, woven, of man-made fibres - by supply country

Belgium Brazil China Germany India Italy

Me xico South Korea Spai n Turke y Othe rs

$USmill

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

$45.00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

Chart F3. U.S.A. Imports from Pakistan of 58013 60020 WOVEN PILE FABRICSAND CHENILLE FABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING 5802 OR 580 6:OF MA N-MADE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS, CHENILLE YARNS ON BOTH SIDE


5801360020

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

$18.00

$20.00

Jan-01

Apr-01

Jul-01

Oct-01

Jan-02

Apr-02

Jul-02

Oct-02

Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-03

Oct-03

Jan-04

Apr-04

Jul-04

Oct-04

Jan-05

Apr-05

Jul-05

Oct-05

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Chart F4. U.S.A. Imports s of 5801360020 WOVEN PILE FABRICS AND CHENILLEFABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING 5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS:

CHENILLE FABRICS, CHENILLE YARNS ON BOTH SIDE


5801360020

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

$4.00 $6.00 $ 8.00 $10 .00 $12 .0 0 $ 14 .00 $ 16 .00 $18 .00

Market Segments

India Mexico China South Korea

Turkey Brazil Italy Spain

Belgium Germany Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart E5. U.S.A. Imports of WOVEN PILE FABRICS ANDCHENILLE FABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING5802 OR 5806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS,CHENILLE YARNS ON BOTH SIDE

2004

5801360020

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

$0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00

Market Segments

China India South Korea Turkey

Belgium Brazil Italy Mexico

Netherlands Germany Grand Total

Kilograms

Chart E6. U.S.A. Imports of WOVEN PILE FABRICS ANDCHENILLE FABRICS, OTHER THAN FABRICS OF HEADING580 2 OR 5 806: OF MAN-MADE FIBERS: CHENILLE FABRICS,CHENILLE YARNS ON BOTH SIDE

2008

5801360020

Documents

42163-02-pak-tacr-06a