4G Readiness Index FITCE2010

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4G readiness index 2008

Elias Aravantinos and M. Hosein Fallah, PhD

Howe School of Technology Management

Stevens Institute of Technology

The Forum for European ICT Professionals (Fitce),

July 2010, Chania, Crete

FITCE 2010


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Agenda

Introduction 4G description

Current trends and issues

Motivation and model

4G-readiness

Model description

Results and validation Conclusions and future work


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Introduction

About this study, and ExelixisNet Aims to create a general technology management model

assessing new technology path among different markets

Focuses on explaining 4G readiness, using 3.5G as a startingpoint

ExelixisNet was founded in NY, in 2007

Telecom and new media consulting agency

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4G evolution


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Investors and vendors

4G Key Players 2011 will be the year when LTE goes live Verizon in the United

States and DoCoMo in Japan will begin wide-scale roll-outs bythe end of 2010

T-Mobile and AT&T drive 4G via HSPA+ path

TeliaSonera has nationwide 4G licenses in Norway, Sweden,

Finland and Denmark. During 2010, the 4G network roll outcontinues in Sweden's 25 largest cities and vacation areas andNorway's four largest cities.

800 MHz band, Vodafone Germany has indicated it will launchLTE services targeted at rural areas within the next 12 months.

Net4Mobility in Sweden will use Huaweis LTE base stations

Spring 2010, Australia turns up 4G with Huawei


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4G Base Station

Teliasonera 4G LTE:

Huawei and Nokia-Siemens

Ericsson: Norway and Sweden

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Example of investment vs. speed

GERMAN MARKET

Vodafone paid1.42 billion for atotal of 12 spectrum blocks,

Telefonica O2 paid1.38 billionfor 11 blocks,

Deutsche Telekom spent1.3billion for 10 blocks

E-Plus paid283.6 million for 8

blocks.

Speeds:

5 Mbps in rural locations, and up to

70 Mbps in cities EA & MHF7/12/2010 8


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Current Issues and research questions

Issues: Several forecasts for the evolution of the 4G on a different time

window

The 3G in most cases has not paid off

WiMAX versus LTE debate seems to calm off

Different strategies and investments

Hard to evaluate 4G markets yet, slow unfold

Research Questions: Which countries are closer to 4G adoption?

Since the markets are still shaping up, how can we forecastmarket potentials from the operators perspective?

The 4G adoption is an outcome of disruptive innovationsrather than a natural path of technology evolution


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Approach to achieve 4G readiness

Motivation/Ability Framework: Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to

Predict Industry Change Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D.Anthony, Erik A. Roth HBS Press 2004

E-readiness:

What is the stage of readiness globally E-readiness rankings of 2008, The Economist Intelligence

Unit 2008 report

Network readiness

NRI report of 2008, World Economic Forum
http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Clayton+M.+Christensenhttp://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Scott+D.+Anthonyhttp://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Scott+D.+Anthonyhttp://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Erik+A.+Rothhttp://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Erik+A.+Rothhttp://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Scott+D.+Anthonyhttp://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Scott+D.+Anthonyhttp://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/b02/en/search/searchResults.jhtml?Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Author%20Name&N=0&Ntt=Clayton+M.+Christensen


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Motivation/Ability Framework

Looking for a Target

Accessing resources

(spectrum) or reachingpotential consumers

The Hotbed

Teeming for innovation

The Dilemma

No readily available

avenues to create profitablebusinesses

Looking for the Money

Firms struggle to find ways to

monetize an opportunity

Motivation

High

Low

Ability

HighLow

Motivation: the 4G including the digital convergence is the pot of gold andthe new opportunity waiting for the winners, the first movers

Ability: obtain the resources needed to develop 4G and craft them intobusiness models for new products and services


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E-readiness

E-readiness is a measure of the quality of a countrysinformation and communications technology (ICT)infrastructure and the ability of its consumers, businessesand governments to use ICT to their benefit.

The measure of a countrys ability to leverage digitalchannels for communication, commerce and government inorder to further economic and social development

Similar definition about the Network Readiness Index


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Advancing the E-readiness into 4G study

Taking as input countries with the most efficient digital users,assuming these countries are highly innovative

Examining E-readiness criteria from a mobile wirelessperspective

Assume the 4G evolution as a digital subcategorydeveloping similar categories and criteria

Apply the model to the mobile wireless and forecast theevolution based on the present

Strategic results from different countries

Include the non-market factors


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Our study

4G-Readiness is a phrase we havecoined as analogous to e- readiness

We will focus on highly rankedcountries

The state of play of a countrysmobile wireless status and the abilityof its consumers, businesses andgovernments to use in the future themobile wireless to their benefit


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Weighting categories

Category

Weight

Connectivity

and

technology

infrastructure

Business

environm

ent

Social and

cultural

environme

nt

Legal

environment

Consumer

and

business

trend

Governmen

t policy and

vision

Criteria 1. mobile

phone

penetration

2. current

industry

standards

Overall

political

environme

nt;

macroeco

nomic

environme

nt; market

opportunit

ies; policy

toward

private

enterprise;

foreign

investmen

t policy;

foreign

trade and

exchange

regimes;

taxregime;

financing;

the labour

market.

Level of

education

and literacy;

level of

Internet

literacy;

degree of

entrepreneur

ship;

technical

skills of

workforce;

degree of

innovation.

spectrum laws

efficiency,

Subscribers

served per

MHz of

Spectrum

1.

Consumer

spending on

communicat

ions

services;

2.

availability

of mobile

wireless

services for

citizens and

businesses

1. Telecom

investing

per GDP

2. Total ICT

national

spending

rate

Percentage 20% 20% 15% 10% 20% 15%


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Strategic countries for 4G adoption

Select the top 20 from the e-readiness list based on thehighest ranking score

The list of the 20 countries consist of: USA, Hong Kong,Sweden, Australia, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, Germany,Japan, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, South Korea, NewZealand, Bermuda, Taiwan, Belgium, Canada, Norway,

Singapore China will be added due to the China Mobile 4G activity

Other strategic countries: India, Russia, Brazil due to thefacts:

Almost represent half of the worlds population

Showing record in wireless adoption the last few years


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4G readiness for 20 countries

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Input Output / Results for 2008

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Network readiness

Greece #64

Spain #32

Italy #33

E-readiness

Greece #28

Italy #24, Spain #25


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Expected results

Countries with higher mobile wireless penetration level toscore higher than the e-readiness table The question is arethere anomalies? Needs to be substantiated by furtherstudy!

Countries that have more 4G operators and trials to beplaced higher in the list

The higher the country in the list the more investments andtrials should attract in the future and closer to 4G adoption

We will use the current ranking, then suggest how theranking changes over time and what question we can helpanswer


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Conclusions

This paper defines the 4G criteria and 4G TechnologyEvolution based on current state of knowledge.

Our continued research and the expected results willshed light into the current operators strategies andmarket structuring at a national level

Will reveal the weak countries that might be strong inthe digital part but weak in the mobile wireless area andthe reasons

Identify strong countries that will shape the 4G marketsfaster and accumulate more capital investments

LTE capable handsets and chipsets

4G Study sampling regions


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Thank You Questions?

Elias Aravantinos

ICT Consultant, ExelixisNet

www.exelixisnet.com

[email protected]

Twitter: eliasara, exelixisnet
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

4G Readiness Index FITCE2010