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AS 84: 5026
. - V '• !
""'~ ~ '";A-A 148 954lt
EVALUATION OF THE BIRDSTRIKE THREAT TO THE F-15 PRESENT FLEET. RAPID DEPLOYMENTFORCE, AND DUAL ROLE FIGHTER TRANSPARENCIES
PETER KOLODZIFElCZYK, Capt, USAF
!!i~SI
SpEtembr 198Z4JZYCat U
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited.tLLJ
LA..
S~DTI
AERONAUTICAL SYSTEMS DIVISION , . .AIR FORCE SYSTEMS COMMANDWRIGHIT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, OHIO 45433-, A
I84
'I 8 2~~
NOTICE
When Covernment drawings, specifications, or other data are used for anypurpose other than in connection with a definitely related Government procure-ment operation, the United States Government thereby incurs no responsibilitynor any obligation whatsoever; and the fact that the Government may have for-mulated, furnished, or in any way supplied the said drawings, specifications,or other data, is not to be regarded by implication or otherwise as in anymanner licensing the holder or any other person or corporation, or sell anypatented invention that may in any way be related theieto.
Operations Security (OPSEC) has been considered and OPSEC procedures havebeen incorporated in this publicatin in accordance with AFR 55-30/ AFSC Sup I.
This report has been reviewed by the Information Office (ASD/PA) and isreleasable to the National Technical Information Service (NTIS). At NTIS, itwill be available to the general public, including foreign nations.
This technical report has been reviewed and is approved for publication.
Capt Peter Kolodziejczyk Leo A. Wack, ChiefProject Engineer Structures Branch
Flight Systems Engineerig Division
Copies of this report should not be returned unless return ib required bysecurity considerations, contractual obligations, or notice on n specificdocument.
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UnclhssifiedSECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (W"on Doat Entered)
READ INSTRUCTIONSREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE BEFORE COMPLETTNG FCRSII. REPORT NUMBER 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO. 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOG NUMBER
ASD-TR-84-502614. TITLE fand~ubftlol) S. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED
Evaluation of the Birdstrike Threat to the F-15
Present Fleet, Rapid Deployment Force, and Dual N/ARole Fighter Transparencies 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER
N/A7. AUTHOR(s) S. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(aI
Peter Kolodziejczyk, Capt, USAF N/A9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT. TASK
AREA & wORK UNIT NUMBERSFlight Systems EngineeringASD/TAEFWPAFB, OH 45433 AFSC-O136
It. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE
Flight Systems Engineering September 1984ASD/TAEF 13. NUMBER OF' AGES
WPAFB, OH 45433 14774 MONITORING AGENCY NAME & AODRESS(If different from Controlling Office) 15. SECURITY CLASS. (of this report)
UnclassifiedISa. OECLASSIFICATION, DOWNGRADING
SCHEOULE, /
16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report)
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited.
17. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of the abetrect entered In Block 20. If different from Report)
N/A
i" SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES-
~~121
19. KEY WORDS (Continue on reveres side it necesaary and identify by block number)
structural, transparencies, bird impact, windshield, canopy, bird weightdistribution, crew enclosure system, velocity distributions.
•O. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse side if neceesary and identify by block number)
The information contained in this report is developed from analytical andempirical techniques used to establish statistical miodels for evaluating thebirdstrike threat to the F-15 aircraft transparencies. Consideration isgiven to two areas: (1) the operational impact rate for specific aircraftusage profiles, and (2) the probability of a random birdstrike which couldresult in penetration of the aircraft cockpit
FORUM, ,,", % _
DD , JAN7 1473 EoDTION OF I NOV OS IS OSSOLElE Unclassified
Bost Copy SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Wen Date EnteBar t •, •Y,,,
FOREWARI.
This report covers work performed by the author during his support of theF-15 Systems Program Office (SPO) at Aeronautical. Systems Division, Air ForceSystems Command, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, 0R. The period covered wasJanuary 1983 through July 1983. The purpose of the effort was to assess tileF-15 Present Fleet, Rlapid Deployment Force, and Dual Pole Fighter windshieldand canopy bird impact resistance capability.
The author wishes to express his appreciation to the following individualsfor their support in this effort:
Dr Allan Berens University of Dayton Research Institute1. Victor Yancey ASD/TAEFBlaine West University of Dayton Research InstituteRalph Speelman AFWAL/FIEATony Cervantes ASD/ENFSSPeter Giron-Pagan ASD/TAEFGlenda White ASD/TAOWLt Renald Lapierre ASD/TAEFLeo A. Wack ASD/TAEFDr D. R. Barr AFIT/ENGDr John Halpin ASD/ENCharlotte Spieth ASD/TAEF
i IVOS LAGE
IS LANIK *
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction I
Operational Impact Rate 2
Cumulative Probability Distributions 16
Velocity Distribution for F-15 Present Fleet 18
F-15 Rapid Deployment Force (RPD) Velocity Distribution 27
F-15 Dual Role Fighter (DRF) Velocity Distribution 33
Bird Weight Distribution 38
Component Strength Distribution 53
Model Application 63
Use of Computer Program for Model Application 73 0
Evaluation of Results 74
Coaiclusiofs 75
Appendix A Program BAAPF 134
Appendix B CM Storage Used 137
Appendix C Program RAAPF 145
References 147
/f
OTIC
IN. ..', iO.9
PREVIOUS PAGE
V
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
FIGURE PAGE
1 Volume Swept Out by Aircraft in Bird 3Environment
2 U vs W Transformation, F-15 Present Fleet, Air 24to Air Mission
3 F-15 Present Fleet Velocity Distribution 25Air to Air Mission from Structural Recorder Data
4 F-15 RD Velocity Distribution Air to Ground 32Mission from Structural Load Report
5 F-15 DRF Velocity Distribution, Air to Ground 37Mission from Structural Load Report
6 OONUS Bird Weight Distribution 51
7 Europe Bird Weight Distribution 52
8 Profile of F-15F and TF Windshield and Canopy 55
9 Existing F-15 Transparency Capability 56
10 Existing F-15 Transparency Penetration Values 56by a 4 lb Bird
11 450 Kt Windshield/300 Kt Canopy Capability (No 57Penetration)
12 450 Kt Windshield/300 Kt Canopy Capability 57Penetration Values by a 4 lb Bird .
13 500 Kt Windshield/350 Kt Canopy Capability (No 58Penetration)
14 500 Kt Windshield/350 Kt Canopy Capability 58Penetration Values by a 4 lb Bird
15 Existing T-38 Transparency Penetration Values by 59
a 4 lb Bird
16 Critical Area Distribution, F-15 Present 60Windshield and Canopy Capability
17 Critical Area Distribution, Increased Capability, 61450 Kt Windshield and 300 Kt Canopy
18 Critical Area Distribution, Increased Capability, 62500 Kt Windshield and 350 Kt Canopy
vii
"-. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-- ... . . . . . . .
19 F-15 Present Fleet, CONUS, Air to Air, Windshield 82
(0-5000 ft AOL)
20 F-15 Present Fleet, GONUS, Air to Air, Canopy 83(0-5000 ft AOL)
21 F-15 Present Fleet, Europe, Air to Air, Windshield 84(0-5000 ft AGL)
22 F-i5 Present Fleet, Europe, Air to Air, Canopy 85(0-5000 ft AGOL)
23 F-15 RPD, CONUS, Air to Air, Windshield 86
(0-5000 ft.)
24 F-15 RPD, CONUS, Air to Air, Canopy (0-5000 ft.) 87
25 F-15 RPD, Europe, Air to Air, Windshield (0-5000 ft) 88
26 F-15 RPD, Europe, Air to Air, Canopy (0-5000 ft.) 89
27 F-15 RPD, CONUS, Air to Ground, Windshield 90(0-5000 ft.)
28 F-15 RPD, CONUS, Air to Ground, Canopy (0-5000 ft.) 91
29 F-15 RPD, Europe, Air to Ground, Windshield 92
(0-5000 ft)
30 F-15 RPD, Europe, Air to Ground, Canopy (0-5000 ft.) 93
31 F-15 RPD, CONUS, 450 Kt., Air to Air, Windshield 94S
32 F-15 RPD, CONUS, 300 Kt., Air to Air, Canopy 95
33 F-IS RPD, Europe, 450 Kt., Air to Air, Windshield 96
34 F-15 RPD, Europe, 300 Kt., Air to Air, Canopy 97
35 F-15 RPD, CONUS, 450 Kt., Air to Ground Windslhield 98
36 F-15 RPD, CONUS, 300 Kt., Air to Ground, Canopy 99
37 F-15 RPD, Europe, 450 Kt., Air to Ground, to0 "Windshield .
38 F-15 RPD, Eurpoe, 300 Kt. , Air to Ground, Canopy 101 Z
39 F-15 RPD, CONIUS, 500 Kt., Air to Air, Windshield 102
40 F-IS RIPD, CONUS, 350 Kt., Air to Air Canopy 103 .5
41 F-I5 RPD, Europe, 500 Kt. , Air to Air, Windshield 104
viii "
42 F-15 RIPD, Europe, 350 Kt., Air to Air, Canopy 105
43 F-15 RPD, CONUS, 500 Kt., Air to Ground, Windshield 106
44 F-15 RPD, CONUS, 350 Kt. , Air to Ground, Canopy 107
45 F-15 RPD, Europe, 500 Kt. , Air to Ground, Wind- 108shield
46 F-15 RPD, Europe, 350 Kt., Air to Ground, Canopy 109
47 F-15 DRF, OONUS, Present Windshield Capability, 110Air to Air
48 F-15 DRF, CONUS, Present Canopy Capability, Air illto Air
49 F-15 DRF, Europe, Present Windshiol.d CapabIl.Ity, 112Air to Air
50 F-15 DRF, Europe, Present Canopy CapabiliLy 113Air to Air
51 F.-15 DRF, CONUS, Present Windshield Capability, 114Air to Ground
52 P-15 DRF, CONWJS, Present Canopy Capability, Air to 115Gromnd
53 F-15 DRF, Europe, Present Windshield Capability, 116Air to Ground
54 F-15 DRF, Europe, Present Canopy Capability Air to 117Ground
55 F-15 DRF, CONUS, 450 Kt., Air to Air, Windshield 118
56 F-15 DRF, CONUS, 300 Kt., Air to Air, Windshield 119
57 F-15 D)RF, Europe, 450 Kt., Air to Air, Windshield 120
58 F-15 DRF, E.ruope, 300 Kt., Air to Air, Canopy 121
59 F-15 DRF, CONUS, 450 Kt., Air to Ground, Windshield 122
60 F-15 DRF, CONUS, 300 Kt., Air to Ground, Canopy 123
61 F-15 DRF, Europe, 450 Kt. Air to Ground, Windshield 124
62 F-15 DRF, Europe, 300 Kt. , Air to Ground, Canopy 125
63 F-15 DRF, CONUS, 500 Kt., Air to Air, Windshield 126
64 F-15 DRF, CONUS, 350 Kt. , Air to Air, Canopy 127
ix
.....................................................
6i 5 F-15 l)R1, Furope. 500 Kt. Air to Air, WtndshieAd 128
66 F--15 DRF, Europe, 350 Xt. , Air to Air, Camnopy 129
67 F--15 IWV, GONUS, 500 Kt. , Air to Ground Witidglitetd 130)
68 F-15 ORF, CONIJS, 350 Kt., Air to Ground, Canopy 131
69 F-15 DRF, Europe, 500 Kt. , Air to Ground Winudshield
70 F-15 DRF, Europe, 350 Kt., Air to Ground. Canopy 133
x
* I -i . ..,i ... 9 .. 4 !.. ! L I .y'j ?~ 'P • uj-' , , , -
I: -I:: ~~I.,1 T 01F TIABI.ES
l 'rAD.: vuPAGE
"1 .0 F-15 Present Fleet Ilistorl.czl Operational 52: Impact Rates
2,0 V-15 Present Fleet Total Usage (Flight 6flours)
3.0 Input Variables for EQN (5) OLR 7Rtxtrapolat ton
4.0 Bird Strikes on, Canopy and Windshield 9
S4.1 Bird Strikes on Canopy and Windshield to
* 4.2 Bird Strikes on Catnopy and Windshield It
4.3 Bird Strikes on Canopy and Windshield 12
4.4 Bird Strikes on Canopy and Windshield 13
4.5 Bird Strikes on Canopy and Windshield I1A
5.0 F-iS reosetnt Fleet Uaage !9
5.2 Weibull U vs W Transformation 22
6.0 F-If, Rapid Deployment Force Mission Mix 2011for the Air to Ground Mission-
6 . t F-IS Rapid Ieployment. Force Air to Ground 1 29Mission
6.2 F-IS Rapid Deployment Force Air to Cround(1 2A 30Mi ss iou
6.3 F-15 Rapid Deployment Force Air to Ground 2B 31
7.0 F-15 Dual Role Fighter Air to Ground I Mission 34
7.1 F-15 Dual Role Fighter Air to Ground 2 Mission 35
"7.2 F-15 Duel Role Figvhte; Air to Ground 31 Mission 36
8.o List; of Identified Birds Iuivolved in Bird Strikes 39Several Aircraft CONUS
8.1 1,1 t of Identified hi rds Involved in Bird Strikes 41
F-I5 CONUS
xi
8.2 I'Itst of Ident ii I d i~rdt. I eO volvd In Bir d 4 2Striko F.-IS EurIope
8.3 1.1st of Identiifie~d Birdig Itivolved In 1W rd 43Strike V-4 CONUS
8.4 Lis~t of Identifiled Birdo Involved in Blird 47St~rike P-4 Europe
8.5 Li-st of Idetitifiled Birdn Involved in Bird 49 -
Strike P-111 CONIJS
8.6 List of Identified Birds InvolvedJ in Bird 11Strike F-111 Europe
9).0 F-i5 pres-ent Floot 64
9.1 F-IS Rapid Deployment Force (Air to Ground) 69
9.2 P-15 Rapid DeploymIen~t For _- (Air to Air) 66
9.31 V-15 Fal Rote Fighter (Alr to Air) 67
9.4 V- 15 Dual Role Fighter (Air to Ground) 68
9).5 rBird Weight Mjrwtto (CONITS,) 69
9.6 Blird Weight Diutrtbut ton (Emrope) 70
10.0 Kinetic En~ergy Matrix 71
10.1 Windhiteld C'ritical Area/Total Area, Present 72
10.2 Canopy Ca Itical Area/Total Area, 1Presont 12Capability
11.0 F-15 Present Fleet Air to Air Mission I i)
12.0) F-15 RPD Force Unage 7/
12.2 F-15 KPI) Air to Air Mijsl.on ill
12.3 F'-15 HPil) Alr to Ground Misston 781
12.4 F'-15 1MW Force Ushage 79)
12.5 C-1j5 1MW Force Usage 80
12.6 F-45 1)1W Air co Air Mission 81l
12.*7 F--1 5 DRF' Alir to Gr.otnd Mlisnion 8!
xii
I N'I.IROIJUCT ION
Coal nilout; between bi rds and a l. rertft tave bc como, ono of tilo major flitguht
safety problems of t:h jet Age.* The m.ost ritteatl neod for bird u impart
res.istance douigit Imiprovmontn to in mttlt'r> aircraftI. Many high speed
atr craft in USA, tnvento ry wore not (teln gnod t:o ,•n•t today 's hi. rd inlpacL
requirements:11tlxýcit't e t•ie the•at; to term" of lost:•i' I.rPr'f I" and al.[relrewn was not
fully apprec! Led at: the den ign stage.
A coimprehens Eve review of analytica L y and emipi ri.call 1y deveoIped prodic-
tive techntques for bird impact stLtutura.t per1form1ance. 1d1S, not revealed aisimpl)e approach, that is, simple to use on short notice or that roqutrut; a
mintinu of itnput tfort'atton , nor one t:hat Is unive rsally avadabl) eand unt-
ve. rtSly accepted.
The attacitLtcal model for evaluating the birdstrike threat to atrcraft
Lransparncies is based on two componentts (0) the operatitonal impact VateWir a specific usage profile; and (2) the probabiLt..y that it ra•dom hirds trike
wiltI occur with sufficient kinetic energy to cause penetratton Into the air-'
craf t cockpit . This model is based on methods formulated by Dra John Halpit; In
evaluatting tihe hirdstrtke threat on the P-16 canopy and Dr AtIan Bierens' modet
in evaluating the T-38 crew enclosure system.
'rlts statistical simulation combines the velocity distrlbution of the
aircraft, the bird weight distribution, and the capability of the crew enclos-ure expressed in terms of kinetic energy. The above distributions were devel-oped for the F-15 Present Fleet, Rapid Deployment Force and Dual Role Fitghiter.Tthuii iii-, asues-in was *.~.-- le to~ daema th aubc of .bidPIta ata
can be o.expect:ed oil tho wttitdihileLndan cattopy over a realistic usage l)rOl"le,
Th,. ap)proaech pri',eit:ed In thiIs r.port I s qniI. te stiiplto t:o use, since
comnputer programs were generated to reduce the tedious calculatitons to a mini1-muM. Tile uset of these methods will a. low an engineer to make a fairly quickassessnment An regard to tihe adeq inaay/I nadeqateiy of a crew eotltr Iotie ,y5sltehi I'd roe, Ist:anco. 4 apabl 11. ty.
I:ii!
OPERATIONAL IMPACT RATE
As an aircraft flies through a bird threat environment, usually 0 - 5000ft AGL, it sweeps out a volume which is a function of the crew enclosure fron-
tat projected area, time and aircraft velocity in the bird threat environment.Therefore, it can he concluded that:
VOLUME VELOCITY X AREA X T-ME(
This volume per unit time that is swept out is projected through the birdthreat environment with a given bird density p . The product of the volumeper unit time and bird density is the Operational Impact Rate (OIR) on thecrew et.closurg (Figure 1) I
01K 'TX A X Ts Xp (2)S
where
OIR = operational impact rateV - aircraft mean true velocityA = windshield or canopy frontal projected area
Ts - time in bird threat environmenttotal flight time
p bird density in environment
A ratio can be developed between any two aircraft if one knows the operationalimpact rate of one of the aircraft: S
V2 X A2 X Ts 2 X P2O V1 X Al X Tsl X P1 (3)
The mean velocities, subsystem frontal areas and proportions of time aredirectly measurable and can be calculated with a moderate amount of effort.However, bird density is not directly measurable, and if one tries to deter-mine the bird density analytically, such a density may be biased by huge popv-lations of small birds such as robins and blackbirds, which have frequentlyimpacted aircraft. Another approach would be to assume that the two aircraftfly in approximately the same environments and therefore experience the samebird densities. This would cancel out the two densities and leave theequation as:
V2 X A2 X T82SIR2 O IRI K - 'VI X Al K Tsl (4)
Caution needs to be used in this type of approximation, (assuming equal bird.densities) since evaluation of existing bird impact data for the F-4 and F-Ill(obtained from the Bird Aircraft Strike Hazard (BASH) TEAM at Tyndall AFB)revealed a significant difference in the predicted operational impact rates.
2 I. .
I-J
LWLi
-4c
0-%
o U-*L 0'
a." crJu
o-4
- 0-
o--c-
Lii Q6.
U-0-CL -4
Using the known OIR for the Y.4, the F-1lt predicted Olk was high by approxi-mately a factor of two. Reversing the simulation showed the F-4 predicted OIRto be low by approximately a factor of two. A realistic consideration of thisdisparity is quite logical, since each aircraft does not fly at the same exactlocations of the world and% therefore does not encounter the same bird den-sities. Any extrapolation between any two unique aircraft that are not basedat the same locations will exhibit this phenomenon, and some sort of correc-tion factor needs to be used.
In the analysis of the F-15 present fleet, Rapid Deployment Force (RPD)and Dual Role Fighter (DRF), the bird densities were assumed constant sincethe RPD and DRF are expected to fly at the same bases from which the histori-cal OIR was obtained.
FOR EXAMPLE: Windshield, Europe 1
V X Ts X A PDRF DRF DRF DRF
OIR IR X_ Europe X Eur pe (5)
DRF Present V, X Ts X A P/DREurope Fleet Present Present Present esent
Europe Fleet Fleet Fleet feetEurope Europe
Table 1 summarizes the historical operational impact rates for the presentfleet based on the time frame of April 1976 - 1 May 1983. Table 2 summarizesthe flight hours flown by each F-15 using command. Conus flight hours is asummation of TAC, Systems, and Logistic Commands usage. Alaskan Command andPACAF were not analyzed since to date their c.perational impact rate on thewindshield and canopy is zero, and their hourly usage was minimal compared tothe usage in Conus and Europe (USAFE). Finally, Eqn. (5) is used with theappropriate inputs from Table 3 to determine the predicted OIR for the RPD andDRF for each of the following:
(A) Conus and Europe
(B) Air to Air and Air to Ground missions
(C) Windshield and Canopy
(D) To variable from 0 - .9
Example Application of Eqn (5)
For F-15 DRF, Windshield, Europe, A/G Mission Assume DRF to - .7
OIR 445.91 .70 602.5DRF - 21.97/106 HIRS X X X . X IEUROPE/10 6 HRS 279.24 .2307 602.5
OIRDRF - 106.45 IMPACTSEUROPE/10 6 HRS
co-.- -
cnn
o'0 0
1P-4
00cnJ
-4 0
-- 4C
-,44
0' 0r. rl 2 ..
0to-
. .i .. - - -
0 r. 0 0PN N 0 4 M~ M %D Mi M 0 0t cn
0 OD M N000 C
.4: ~ ~ ~ - e4.C.*C'C .- N M. fl 1- W ON a Aa
-t -o Ln -T --ID-i
-4d- -4 ch %0W0ýt-4 FF4
>4C 00
z 0
A 04
o ) 00000(D00n0 000 .A D I- % lO -- -t WON=
-. 0 Co 00 -4.1 (. C4 -4- 4H
r-.-
A CAMw
0%044-4 C4
t- %0 0
ii
0 H
P, r-r - -_f-r - 00 Dc
$4 ~ ~ >0 0 .- 4 -r-r 0O 0 0$Ia c = : QU ()0% (71 Cy% 0% Cd ) O M 0
on.4c 0 Z 00- - - -- - -0S4 E-
- ---.--. 1.-r vv
F-15 PRESENT FLEET
ARE',INIUSIEL0 602.5 IN 2
AREACANOPY 280.0 IN 2
"VAIR TO AIR = 279.24 Knots (CONUS & Europe)
t s CONUS - .1198 based on historical data
ts EUROPE - .2307 based on historical data
F-15 RAPID DEPLOYMENT FORCE (RPD)
AREAWINDSHIELP - 602.5 IN2
AREACANOPy 280.0 IN 2
VAIR TO AIR - 279.24 Knots (CONUS & Europe)
VAIR TO GROUND - 427.90 Knots (CONUS & Europe)
ts CONUS AND EUROPE - Varies 0 - .9
F-15 DUAL ROLE FIGHTER (DRF)
AREAWINDSIIIELD - 602.5 IN2
AREAANOpy - 474.5 IN2 jVAIR TO AIR - 279.24 Knots (660US & Europe)
VAIR TO GROUND 445.91 Knots (CONUS & Europe)
ts CONUS AND EUROPE - Varies 0 -. 9
TABLE 3 INPUT VARIABLES FOR EQN (5) OIR EXTRAPOLATION
7:?i
..*l.1
Eveluat-lon of Table 1 reveals a disparity for the Canopy and WindshieldOIRs between Covius and Eiurope. Since the canopy has a lower proIect~ed frontllaý'ea from the windshield, it would be expected that the OIR on the canopy inEurope would be lower than the windshield OIR, however, this is not the case.Table -4.0-4.5 summarizes the bird impacts for the F-15, F-4 and F-Il by eachtheatre Conus/Europe and each component windshield/canopy. For Europe, fromTable 4.1, 4.3, 4.5 the results are as follows:
F-IS -F-4 F-l 1
Windshield 3 38 20
Canopy 7 60 15
A possible explanation of this disparity is that a pressure wave is created bythe aircraft radome in flight, with a componenit in the vertical directionstrong enough to displace an oncoming bird over'. the windshield arch and hitthe canopy. The pressure force would not be str ag enough to displace a 4 lbbird, but it may be sufficient to displace a .1 *- .3 lb bird. From Figure 5(page 37) and 6 (page 51) bird weight distributions, the bird weight range0 - .3 lbs, represents 35% of the bird population"in Conus and 58% in Europe.
The above theory holds a great deal of logical sense, but it is only acrude rationalization of the results and it fails for the F-ill. An in-depthanalysis is necessary to verify this phenomenon with special consideration inthe area of aerodynamic effects over the radome of ea'.h of the above aircraft,as well as geometrical similarity. For example, the F-15 and F-4 have basi-cally geometrically similar windshields and canopies but the F-Ill does not.It is felt that for the F-1Il canopy the pressure wave effects are consider-ably different than the F-15 and F-4, since the F-111 is a side-by-side seat-ing aircraft. Based on the above the theory would hold in Europe for the F-4
* and F-IS, but not for the F-Ill.
'..I
82
F-15 CONUS
ON CANOPY ON WINDSHIELD
STRIKE DATE BASE STRIKE DATE BASE
78/04 Langley 78/09 Unknown
80/02 Langley 79/01 Robins
79/08 Holloman
79/12 Holloman
80/02 George
80/07 Langley
81/07 Langley
81/07 Langley
81/11 Langley
82/05 Langley
82/07 Langley
83/03 Holloman
83/04 Luke
83/05 Luke
Time Frame April 1976-May 1983
Hours Flown 473,008
Total - 2 on Canopy14 on Windshield
Data from BASH team computer files, Tyndatl AFB
TABLE 4.0 BIRD STRIKES ON CANOPY AND WINDSHIELD
9" "
F-15 EUROPE
ON CANOPY ON WINDSHIELD p
STRIKE DATE BASE STRIKE DATE BASE
78/06 Bitburg 78/07 Bitburg
79/09 Alconbury 81/05 Camp New Amsterdam p
80/04 Camp New Amsterdam 81/07 Camp New Amsterdam
80/08 Camp New Amsterdam
82/08 Spangdahlem p
82/08 Bitburg
81/09 Camp New Amsterdam
p
Time Frame April 1976-May 1983 pHours Flown = 136,576Total = 7 on Canopy
3 on Windshield
Data from BASH team computer files, Tyndall AFB .
TABLE 4.1 BIRD STRIKES ON CANOPY AND WINDSHIIELD.
10
F-Ill CONUS
ON CANOPY ON WINDSI•I1W")
STRIKE DATE BASE STRIKE DATA BASE
75/07 Cannon 75/04 Nel lis
79/09 Nellie 75/04 Cannon
75/10 Mt Home 76/06 Mt Home
76/08 Mt Home 78/02 Cannon
78/06 Mt Hlome 78/07 Unknown
78/06 Unknown 78/09 Unknown
78/10 Unknown 79/08 Unknown
78/10 Unknown 79/08 Unknown
78/10 Unknown 79/08 Unknown
79/04 Cannon 79/08 Unknown
79/07 Unknown 79/10 Unknown
79/10 Unknown 79/10 Unknown
79/I0 Unknown 79/11 Unknown
79/12 Unknown 82/06 Mt Home
82/09 Mt Home
82/09 Mt IHome
Time Frame Jan 1975-Nov 1982
Hours Flown = UnknownTotal. f 14 on Canopy
16 on Windshield
Data from BASH team computer files, Tyndall AFB
TABLE 4.2 BIRD STrRIKES ON CANOPY AND WINDSHILD[I
11-.
F-iI1 EUROPE
ON CANOPY ON WINDSHIELD
STRIKE DATE HASH STRIKE DATE, BASE
78/07 Unknown 75/It Upper Ileyford
78/09 Unknown 77/10 Upper 11eyford
79/08 Unknown 78/08 Lakenheath
79/10 Unknown 78/08 Upper Heyford
80/07 Upper Heyford 78/09 Lakenheath
80/09 Upper Heyford 78/09 Unknown
81/10 Lakenheath 78/09 Unknown
82/04 Incirlik 78/10 Unknown
82/04 Incirlik . 79/06 Unknown
82/11 Incirlik 80/10 Lakenheath
S82/09 Upper iHeyford 80/10 Upper "eyford
82/10 Upper Heyford 80/12 Upper Heyford
82/10 Upper Heyford 81/01 Upper Heyford
82/10 Upper leyford 81/02 Upper Hleyford
82/11 Upper Hleyford 81/03 tncirlik
81/06 Lakonheath
81/09 Upper Heyford
81/10 Unknown
82/06 Lakenheath
82/07 tUpperl Heyford
Time Frame = Jan 1975-Nov 1982Hours Flown = UnknownTotal 15 on Canopy
20 on Windshield
Data from BASH1 team computer files, Tyndad.L AFB
'rABLiE 4,3 BIRD STRIKES Oh CANOPY AND WINDSIi[ELD
12
F-4 CONUS
ON CANOPY ON WINL)SHIIL)
STRIKE I)ATE KASE STRIKE I)ATE BASE
77/01 Boise (Gowen Fid) ID 75/08 1ll1ollian78/04 Lincoln MAP NE 77/01 3ergstromi78/05 Unknown 77/03 Shaw.79/0 3 Unknown 77/06 Shaw79/04 Unknown 77/07 Birmingham HunK79/04 Moody 78/102 Shaw79/04 Unknown 78/04 Seymour John~son79/04 Unknown 78/05 Unknown79/04 Unknown 78/05 Unknown79/05 Moody 78/06 George79/06 Unknown 78/07 Duluth TAP MN79/07 Unknown 78/08 Moody79/07 Unknown 78/08 Unknown79/09 Unknown 78/09 Unknown79/12 Unknown 78/10 Unknown80/01 Unknown 78/11 [ Unknown80/ 10 Duluth 1AP MN 78/ 11 Unknown81/09 MacDill 78/11 Moody81/01 Lincoln MAP NE 78/11 Homestead82/07 George 79/03 George82/05 Shaw 79/05 Ilomestend "82/06 Birmingham Muni 79/06 Unknown82/06 Rlulman Field IN 79/07 Unknown82/11 'Standiford Field KY 79/09 Luke82/10 George 79,109 Unknown
79/10 Duluth TAP MN79/10 Key Field MS79/10 Unknown79/11 Homestead7 /1 I Slaw
79/12 Moody80/03 Homestead80/04 Bergstrom80/07 Duluth lAP MN80/09 George80/11 Seymour Johnson80/12 Seymour Johnson81/05 VDM•81/06 Maclil L81/07 Bergstrom81/09 George81/10 Kelly82/06 Sey our ,Johnson82/08 Duluth TAP MN82/10 Edwards82/ 11 Seymour JolnsonR2/10 Seymotur Johnson82/ 11 Seymour Joh'ison
Time Frame. Jan 1975--Jul 1982Hlours Flown - UnknownTotal = 25 on Canopy
48 on Windshield
Data from BASH team computer files, Tyndall AFB.
TABLE 4.4 BIRi) STRIKES ON CANOPY AND TNbNI)ShITELD
13
F-4 EUROPEL
ON CANOPY ON WINDSIHIEI.D
STRtTK, DATE BASE STRIKE DATE BASE,
7 5/03 Bitburg 75/09 Torrejon
76/04 Alconbury 78/02 Bentwaters
78/03 Ditburg 78/03 Bentwaters78/07 Aviano 78/06 Unknown
78/08 Torrejon 78/07 Hahn
78/09 Unknown 78/07 Unknown7 8/09 Unknown 78/08 Unknown78/10 Unknown 78/09 Hahn78/10 Unknaown 78/09 Unknown78/10 Unknown 78/09 Unknown78/12 Zweibrucken 79/06 Unknown79/01 Hahn 79/06 Unknown79/03 Unknown 79/06 Unknown
79 / 06 Unknown 79/07 Unknown7 9/06 Spangdahlem 79/10 Iahn719/07 Unknown 80/07 Torrejon
79/09 Unknown 80/08 rorrejon
80/01 Unknown 80/08 Spangdahlem80/ u Unknown 80/ 10 11c i.. r80/03 Unknown 80/11 lncirllik
80/05 Torrejon 81/03 A1 conhtiry80/07 Zweibrneken 91/03 Ramst etrn80/07 Zweibrucken 81/05 Spangdahlcm
80/08 Zaragoza 81/06 Ramstein80/09 Incirlik 81/06 Incirtik
80/09 Ramstetin 81/07 SpangdahIem-80/09 Zaragoza 81 / 07 Spatlgdah l.en
80/09 Iahn 81/07 1llna80/09 Hahn 81/09 Torrejon
80/09 Zweibrueken 81/09 Incrt.ik
80/09 Ramst'ein 81/LO Zweibrucken80/10 7weibrucken 82/(9 Ramste 0n80/10 Incirlik 82/07 Zweibrucken80/10 Zaragoza 82/09 Zweihruckeu.
80/10 Zwel.hruCeoex 82/07 Torrejon80/1l Ramstein 82/08 Torrej on81/03 Incirlik 82/10 Torrejon81/03 Incirlik8 1/03 Incirlik8 1/03 Ramstein81/04 Incirlik8 1/05 Incirlik81/05 Hahn8 1/01 Spangdahltem
TABLE 4.5 BIRD MTRIKES ON CANOPY AND WINDSIIED
14
TAISIXI, 4.5 F-4. EIROI1E ( Cnn t ' d)
81/08 To~rrjonl81/08 Alconbury8 1/io9 f~paiIgdailehte0!81/10 Inc Irtik82/04 Inc rItik82/05 Zaragoza82/05 Ind. rlik82/05 Spaigdahlerni82/06 Incirlik82/06 Incirll~k82/06 Incirlik82/09 Ranmstein82/07 Zwelbrucken82/07 Torrejon82/0 'rorrejon82/08 Torrejoin
Time Frunpe Jan 1975--Jul 1982ilours Flown W UknownTotal *60 on Canopy
38 on Windohiel~d
D~ata~ froin J1AhI teamn comp'~rcnr ftilnq, Tyndall.1 AFBI
Cumulative Probability Distributions
Additional inputs into the model include velocity, bird weight and crewenclosure strength cumulative distributions.
This model assumes that the velocity and bird weight distributions for themajority of the data can be modeled by a Weihull cumulative probabilitydistribution.
The functional form of the cumulative Weibull distribution is given by:
F(V) = 1 - exp (6)
-Yj
Where:
F(V) = cumulative velocity probability distribution
• - velocity
= characteristic paramter, represents the 63 percentile point of thepopulation sample
a =share parameter
y = minimum life parameter, in this analysis it is used only as a.correction factor for the Weibull distribution
If portions of the data population do not fit a Weibull distribution, anapproximation can be used by the following equation
F(V)TotaI F(V) 1 + F(V) 2 + . . F(V)N (7)
Equation 7 sums each cumulative distribution to get a total of 1. In thisreport, F(V)Total represents a cumulative probability distribution functionwhich is a mixture of Weibull distributions and distributions that are definedby sixth or first order equations, depending on which data population is beinganalyzed.
The mean values may be obtained by taking the first derivative of eachindividual cummulative distribution, and applying the following formula
B1 = f v f(V) dV (8)
A
Where:
V velocitv
f(V) first derivative of F(V) 1 probability distribution
and
16
VTotal -VI + V2 + V3 +. + (9)
B C 1)VTotal fvf(v)I dV + fVf(V) 2 dV + fvf(V) 3 dV 1 ... (10)
A B C
Before a cumulative distribution can be assigned to a given set of data,it is necessary to reduce the data in a statistical manner. This can beaccomplished by the following eqn.
RELATIVE FREQUENCY f T (ii)
whe re
f = frequency of occurrence
N total number of occurrences
Eqn. 11 suggests that one can associate with a given event a number, sayp, that is equal or approximately equal to that number about which the rela-tive frequency seems to stabilize. The number p, associated with a givenevent is usually called a probability. Therefore
p PROBABILITY i RELATIVE FREQUENCY = (12)
Once a given set of data is reduced to a probability form, it is arrangredin increasing order to obtain a cumulative probability distribution. To thisdata, a known cumulative distribution function is fitted. This is done sincethe statistically reduced data sample contains some level of inaccuracy. Thelevel of inaccuracy is a function of the source and the amount of data. Forexample, structural recorder data is more realistic and accurate in analyzingthe F-15 Air to Air mission than obtaining information from a structural loadsreport.
A theoretical cumulative distribution such as the Weibull, Gama, Beta ordozens of others, which can be obtained from textbooks are exact, meaning theysatisfy all axioms of probability. If a set of data fits any theoreticaldistribution exactly, the error in that data sample is zero. This occurrenceis quite remote due to the inaccuracy in data measuring equipment. Therefore,the data is fitted with a known cumulative distribution, because such adistribution is more exact and represents actual aircraft usage more realisti-cally for a particular mission profile.
This analysis uses primarily the Weibull cumulative probability distribu-tion since this distribution was used exclusively by Dr Halpin and Dr Berensin their work in evaluating the F-16 and T-38 crew enclosure bird impactresistance capabilities. However, one should note that other known cumulativeprobability distributions could have been used and possibly provided a betterfit to any one of the data samples in this report.
17
VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION FOR F-15 PRESNf FLEET
For the present fleet air to air mission, the velocity distribution wasderived from structural recorder data from Kadena, Holloman, and Ritburg for atotal of 347.5 flight hours. This data was obtained from McDonnell Douglasand reduced for an altitude range of 0 - 5000 ft AGL. Table 5.0 summarizesthe present usage of the F-15 fleet.
Eqn 12 was then used to get the initial probabilities in the altituderange 0 - 5000 ft (Third Column, Table 4.1)
Whe re
f = # seconds for specific airspeed range
N - total seconds (490,981.8)
From this data, a cumulative probability was obtained (Fourth Column, Table5.1). This data was then plotted on linear graph paper and fitted with aWeibull cumulative probability distribution.
18
- - - - --- 0 C ~0rE~ -- - -- ---~?0 V~4- 0-- D ~ -"3-.)O .
r) MJJ-f.A* O7 4
0~~~~~~~ .' .~<) . .-~ ..0t .1 .~ ..CI .0 C . .
0,-C? ~ ~ C C00 Q~ C-C 20 00 00 C? r, ~ .f ýf.. ) 0 0 00 1'ZýC
o c N4--Ju0 %C
c0 0 00C ?2 - rw*- un MfMFNý lkO wflq-4* 4d 0 C t) m I-*- fu 0No W ýP
C- &00 0 0 0 a fl a a 0.0 v 0(0 0 04 0.1 0 0 0 0d -E 0 0 0 a &
9-oc? 000. .0 . ~ I .l4I .C~l~ .V. .9- . .~)0'0
* n c), '
f1 4~~~~~~~C-W .C.%IlW))f,-AJAULl 0
C2.J
Lt'
fn el 0 U ~ C4 ) E4l. 0 O-.J 00 w.. e .s.... e e * * 6 *
0-0 aP0c4dflE'-.- w0O w0I40 C3,' -4'.1000111 M E C 3 ~ 4 0~
o 0
Co cv- O 00cY .ý'0o'Cl .- 4f0~f~f-~f-~ w
n9 CY I& L 4
-as4~- *)0 .04)'f4uXj4tW' 4 W2-
om4b a 0 0 a a * 0'O0 a 0 0e 000 00aa 0- oiIoooo O 0a
VIPc~ 00aeo 0N 0 I0 P a e0 0a aS0 00 0 a0 000 000 0
Al '1 Al0n4. I~n
+ P100uIn
cr Ascm~V-4d'
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _=ý
0 000 -C t 4% 0 %0-4 N tn0 % nr ,0000-4 C 4 cIn Cq rI .* M~ 10 1- 00 WO 110 0% 01 1% I'l0
rr23
0
ca Q
ca a 00C: %0 C>-4 Ul D % If- Un-4 C14 lin -.0 M --1 0 000- -400w.4m1- 0m110 C' a CO -4000000 0
000 -'4 c0-4-4-04D0 0 00 0 0 00 0
0 L0
0
(n cr h r0t.0 c, r NM (4C 4Li1 ý4,- -- *
0 cr1-(4 01,10 s L sw 0w00-;I-m Ch(In 0 0 T- (14ýD 10 0
0 >0 >00 C> 0 0 c >0'0' c) ,0' '>C'> 0' -4 "C)E4%V M C4L D --0 M% 7 l r Dý-'r - . % 0 f
02
To determine the initial parameters for the Weibull distribution, eqn (6),a U vs W transformation was used. This allowed for an initial estimate of the"
Weibull parameters, et, and 1, The transformation was developed as follows:
V -Y '
F(V) 1 - exp LK'4a
1 -F(V) iexp[( ~
in (1-F(V)) = - __...
-in (1-F(V)) (V- ) "
ctIn - in In (1-F(V))jJ
otln (V -y) - cln $-y)= InLE in (1-F(V))-
But the equation of a straight line is
u mw + b
where mn is the slope of the lineb is the u intercept when W 0
let W = in (V -y)
and u = In In (1-F(V))
Therefore;
-.
where x is the slope
and - • I (n -y ) is the u intercept when W = 0
• Any Weibull function in a x vs W domain is a straight line.
Table 5.2 lists the results of the u vs W transformation where the nominalvelocities were input for V, and cuMulative probabilities, from columu 3, wereinput for F(V). These values were then plotted in the u vs W domain, (Fig 2)and a straight line was drawn through the most significant points that repre-sented individual probabilities, from eqn 12, of greater than .05. From thisstraight line the parameters were derived as follows:
21.
M4 00 (1 -1 -0 -4 %0 ( -4 0% W' e-4 0 .- * C -4 C4 M. M
tZ Ln Z4 -gr N4 I. q -4 c' 40 ch rA "' w~ 5.1 vA 0 in 0m
4. 4 14 VA W; 14 VA U' 4 IA Iz '0 '0' 10 'C' '0 10 10 '0
P-4 -4 0 --4 NI 0 w0 "' ~ 0 rN L 0 4% -40 "' d.
z
z .
0 4c D-T1 0 O-=0 mc o% 4 Ne om w 0%W %~0 r-0% tn0%0 %CS-NUl0 %0 LM t"0%O0
A- 0 0004"mmr *c N l %0 7 '0CO %O'0%0
- ~0 -
If4..
~~04
134 w
U3
1.4 0lUjL nUýVjL nL nL 1 * At nL nV nV
p -41 fn 10 (71 AC 00 -4 -1 r--O nD4NC n0 -4 -* -- 0E-
OL 0
E- -4- - c N O %n0 004- L n n'D 0%D%
.-4 000000000000000000000W~.. C- 0% t -4- r 0 Ma0% N IA-W-4 ,tr-0 cl Oo
22
ot slope of line 2.81
from graph, u - -15.7002 when W 0
YT 40 established prior to u vs W transformation
Then
-15.7002 , 2.81(0) -2.81 ln ( -40)
-13 07 "-'"
Vx4 2.81 for 200 < V < 720F(V), I 1 - exp ---7 to::.!.
The correction factor (y ) in the u vs W domain straightens the datasomewhat to represent a straight line. The value for Y was determined bytrial and error, as y was incremented from 0 - 140, and then finally chosen as.40, since it provided the best fit to the data sample.
The above Weibull distribution fitted the data sample exceptionally wellfrom 200 to 720 knots, but was unrealistic below 200 knots. Therefore, therange 110 - 200 was fitted with a sixth order equation.
This distribution was developed by approximating that range by arealistic distribution and intersecting the Weibull at the most common point,which for this case was 200 knots. Then from this distribution, a sixth orderleast squares fit was accomplished, and the equation checked to insure thatthe distribution for the specified range was in fact a probability distribu-tion. The following equation was Aeveloped:
•-5.793168 + 2.49687 K 10-1 V - 4.296046 X 10-3V2
F(V) +3.774985 K 10-5V 3 -1.792476 X 10- 7V4 for 116 < V < 200+ 4.396387 K 10 1 0 V5 -4.371459 X 10- 1 3 V6 -
Figure 3 summarizes the F-15 present fleet velocity profile in the altituderange of 0 - 5000 ft AGL.
23
LIL'
00
U*) Dt
DC
CD- C6
24IL
O0
C)
C3
U')
CD CD w
0
Cf)
0'~00.e U" Ij
1 T 14V0 Qf
C) V)r
0 LlfLi~ ui
C-) -
CL
oC C9
CDDCD
CD
LDI
o 0 0 C:) CD a;
~u iiligu9omd 3A ii~fllnwo25
The mean velocity was obtained by applying eqn 9 aid 10. By using anumerical integration subroutine on an IIP-15C~, the. mean velocity for Ole 1'-15present fleet was determinod to be 279.24 knots.
The proportion of time (t.) in the range of 0 - 5000 ft AOL for CONUS was 0obtained from McDonnell Douglas structural loads report (MDC A5318) for altmissions other than air to ground. The ts was determined to be .1198, basedon mission mix as specified on pg 3.2&2,.l of the above report. The reason for .'.:.
not using the Holloman t. was that it was unrealistic and it contradicted adata sample from Langley. The t. for Hlolloman was approximately .04 andLangley, .14. Therefore, as a last resort, the structural loads report was Pused.
Bitburg data was used to determine the ts for Europe. From Bitburg datafor Europe, the t. was evaluated to be .2307. This represented a realisticvalue since historically the F-15 fleet has spent considerably more time inEurope between 0 - 5000 ft, and another source of data matched the above t P3within .01 (1%).
An assumption was made that the velocity profile for the present fleet, inthe range of 0 - 5000 ft AGL, was the same between CONUS and Europe. This wasdone considering that the mean velocity would not increase or decrease by morethan 10 knots. Such a change in this analysis represents insignificant 0changes in final results.
26. , .
26-
F-15 RAPID DEPLOYMBENT FORCE (RPD) VEIOCTry DISTRIIBUTION
For the F-15 RPD, the air to ground velocity profile was derived fromMcDonnell Douglas structural load report (MDC A5318). This data was usedsince the F-15 does not fly an air to ground mission at this time. The abovereport, although not labeled F-15 RPD, is representative of the RPD, since theRPD will be the baste F-15C aircraft with provisions for conformal fuel tranksand a requirement for an air to ground mission (based on convers'atlons with.Mc~onnellI Douglas).
Table 6.0-6.3 summarizes the Air to Ground missions for the F-15 RPD.Similar methods were used to reduce the data as in the previous section;however, some reorganization of data was necessary to fit the data with aWiebull curve. For example, if a data point was reduced to be at 443 knots,then this point was assigned to a velocity range of 410 - 460 knots and forWeibull fitting purposes the nominal point between 410 - 460 was used. Thisapproach allowed for some inaccuracy in the source of data. To these bound-aries, the Weibull distribution could have been fitted, iterating as necessaryto Insure most important points are intersected or very closely approached.Important points for this case are defined as points for which eqn 12 showsvalues of .15 or greater (this value can be established by using one's Judg-ment).
Figure 4 summarizes the F-15 RPD velocity profile for an altitude range of0 - 5000 ft AGL. An assumption was made that the same velocity profile isflown between CONUS and Europe. Further, it was assumed that for 0 - 5000 ftAGL, the F-15 RPD will fly the same air to air velocity profile in CONUS andEurope as the present fleet (Fig 3). Same rationale as previous scteion.
27.."i.
27,
InW U- ' , In --4 1,0 (Y)
a)- (r% "C'4 4 O( 0
r, -
z e(j 0 e ,, • ," ' - ,
-':.
S.. . . . . . ..!Q I
I• • u•0 ,11 No- \0• "• •o 000
0 ( f O r, r,0 .
t..
0 04
0 0 0a, 0 co <h C ' 0"
m It ". -11 110 U) I-
00
u0i .0 (
CA t- -4, t- - -
0 en
w 0
(.44 1...
q 0 4 -. . "
• oo '-'--- , -• -4•.o ,-
I I•.4U 4I
0 00.- 0i n
,.4,), .H ,• " 0 €..4 '4'I 13.. ..-- 1- • 4 m C ' " "
( 4 -1jnV
44~ -4-
t4~~ ~ ~ Pk 0CNC n )C n- ) u LC
r -4 -4 -t.0r3Nw C• "1-8 0.4 ot ) C)
I..
44i C)i ~ i4 C
d.O -4 w
0 F- a2)*
w w 7 1...- ci C)
~~ 41~ CAO00' 1.4:
0 0 w w4
4) 44 v-42 0
.- 4 -4
(D- t, o 12 h (I Y 1
ON 0f -4-
-10 hD C>
0
(-4r * t Ci U) C-4
-4a OD M 4
(n'- C40 - m(4 e
-4Z
00
+ N -4
1- t43 (A
r- to~ t- - 0. C (- ' t- 0
41. 0 4a,1
0044 11 ~ In if)-
174 ) ()
C)C. ~-'0 0 0 .j29
(IO- n Go IT (n -t n~
N 00 0 0 1-
4-
Cý
Ccil
caJ CD~ 00 0n 4 CEn c0 E
ON %D 1-40% C 4 Cwj. C.r I - N* 0 En 000.% t- r. 0
U -- 0 -zS En En Q% 0 NC- NJ N. In0C)~' ~ J n N N -4 c0 -:t~ N N .%
Ii')~L 0 v4cI A 'b A . .sn E n En co
0 .00
U) CX 0- E- 04 0 wn tC Z W 0 C 0
H~L t4' IA IA^ I
0 -
+ -4
M 0 0
0C rA X4 CI z
00)4 C.4 10) LA o - *d * Ct. c *)c0 ) E- 4 * ** to - 40 t
WJ~ 41 r4I V)~ ,4 LA U V -H
I--
E- -4 C-
'-4
300
.) .) .) .i .i. .0
C)00 0 -4 4-- 4
S0 0 1- c
-4-
1-40% 0
La Ln (4 00 OD 0 0
tD-4 * q LI) OD m- 0
1-0 r-(4ý-
00, C% 47% IN ('t C1 H %
NIA 4-. (4 -O) m OD
IA CA- [4.
(4)
0
44 --44 - C O' - ~C0 ý2 1. 0 O ' A %.- f ~ (.
00
114 I) 4)I 47%C! 04 Z,-' to0 ý N C r4d$0 E-14 ~ 0 04 = 0 Ul4-(1) 04 H-11 4) 0- 0ý 0 0- 0) U)
IA $ IA IA I I 4
00 IAwr
-4~E E- C
o 1E-4E-4U
C.4 r-4 J.J CJ0
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*>O>
N Ln 00s -6 c 3 0 c
I'l~~r)- IDe-~dJuuiw
32(~
F-15 DUAL ROLE FIGHTER VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION
The F-15 Dual Role Fighter (DRF), air to ground (0 - 500 ft AGL) velocityprofile was derived from McDonnell Douglas Structural Design Criteria,Memorandum 199-DRF-169. This report was used, since it was the beat source ofthis type of information for the DRF.
Mission mix was obtained from the same report and is summarized asfollows:
F-15 DRF MISSION MIX
AIR-TO-AIR 20% A/Al 2.5%A/A2 2.5%A/A3 15.0%
AIR-TO-GROUND 75% A/GI 10.0%A/G2 10.0%A/G3 55.0%
NON-TACTICAL 5% N/TI 2.5%N/T2 2.5%
NOTE (A) Based on a 4000 hour aircraft lifetime
(B) All percentages are percent of total missions
Table 7.0 - 7.2 lists each air to ground mission. In data reduction, onlyflight in the altitude range of 0 - 5000 ft is considered. A ratio is usedfor climbs and descents up to 5000 ft. Same methods were used as in the pre-vious sections to fit the data with a Weibull and sixth order distribution.
Figure 5 summarizes the F-15 DRF velocity profile for an altitude range of0 - 5000 ft AOL. Similarly as for the F-15 RPD, it was assumed that the DRFwill fly the same velocity profile (0 - 5000 ft) between CONUS and Europe.The DRF air to air velocity profile (0 - 5000 ft) was assumed to be equivalentto the F--15 present fleet between CONUS and Europe. Same rationale as pre-vious sections.
33
- - . t .... ,,.. .,.. .t.. .. ,. ,.-'S*..
Clfl U. 0 % 0 0
1 0% Q
0%
in OD ON c
C:I .n *- N IN I 0
-0 ON c0 0 q u040' 4
f-I4
+) c'I 0 'f 0% In 0n 0
r4 0 C4 '00 ~18
0% NO in -I
J.
E- 4 [- -aC
'C4 0% U NCA 0 0O~L HIr0 LIN - C),.4 N 0 I
I-4 ý '-i adC I .4
0 + 0
AH 04 04 +04 14 00 0 0E0
00 M 44 iJH 0 w 00 0 -
H H1-4 f4 44 04 0 00
~~~ I4'- 41 'A il fI
+ 441)~0 ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Z 0 - : t d0 04 4 ý
P4 V d e v4U 1 4
41 -4 C-4
030
4134
~~L 00 c'0 r- Le) t 0 0 '0) 0- 0 0h tn %0 ON %0 00~I-o en0 00 %0 04 -' 000 N
.n c'. 0 co 0Ln 00 I0 0 % m ~ C"
.01%
0 0 0C>
00 0) 0 00 0' H
H- H
Nq
0 A C) 0l 0ý IA I Ll -
0
N 0 to Ez0 1- Q 0 N 0 ) % w 4
1 -4 0 On 0% % '0 0'0 %D IAr -. C>'.0 '. -4 OD tA - % 0% ON &-4I4 U34
H : 0 0 CD 0
00~~~~~~~- <- n 0 0 C c nC A L
+ Q -,~
4:-
0 1.4 00) F0- 04 .0 :3a r .
4 0.. ý4 0~ 40 )4 0 C.1 m 21 U0 ) w
*1X4 00 C-4) 44 0. .
0U w,. 000.1 ,4 4. 4 .1 0 0
0+ w H 0 c!.0 Co0 A44:0. 0 :3c 1Ln ý iC U) --
44 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 4. N 3 rj g 1 0 (AN40 -4 N 04. w C) Z
u .1 .. ) *':)L4~
+1. W 4 ~ O w oU(U ~ o 0 '4
0 0 ~ 0 0"~ .~I ~ ~ * 00 .~* )I ~4U35'
0D -, %0 -4 c 4 cn il ~ -4 r-0
en. 0% 00 (4
to ; m It 1 0 00 04 -Ital
0% %
ý-4
in as C -.1 0 % -It 0n t- 0~I
1- 50% U0 %0 i 0 -ý %0 0% C
-40 4ý-4 U
1-44
%0
1-4
~~i0 0% 4 1IV 0% 4)4 4 r. A 6
rý4 u EA n 0A 41 -4 w 1 C A C' A14
$4% C'-4 4
U u00 0- 4
Cz-4
44 ca
P- gow Z
to-~f
36)
-.D
0
LA)
CD C0
W) C00iC0
((0
0
ooxI LA
LA_
CDD
3 C3
0, C)
P- f .4
.fl
T1 T0 -C
.. lol I- I Yf I . . .
CD~~ ciCiD 6 ci C
Il I -U 0 , 3 .ii
v,**,~. C- (7
- - W fli.- - -& -- ,-.
BIRD WEIGHT DIsTrRIBUTIONS
Bird weight distributions for CONUS and Europe were derived fromt F-15, F-.4and P-Ill, (as well as other USAF inventory aircraft, Table 8.0) bird impacts,which were identified by species and weight. The above data was obtained fromLt Will (AV 970-6243), BASH Team, Tyndall AMB.
The bird impact data is summarized in Tables 8.0 - 8.6. Table 8.0 lists acomposite of several aircraft bird impacts which were identified by theSmithsonium Institute. Some identified bird weights are exact and some areaveraged. F-15, F-4, and F-Ill impacts were extracted from the log book dataand listed in Table 8.1 - 8.6 with remaining computer file bird impacts. Allbird impacts are impacts that have been reported anywhere on the aircraft. Abird impacting a wing or engine could have just as well hit the windshield orcanopy. The data from computer files was identified by bird type, thenReference 3-5 was used to associate a bird type with a bird weight. Reference.3 was considered to be the most exact source of information, then reference 4and finally Reference 5 aa a last resort.
Based on Tables 8.0 - 8.6 for CONUS and Europe, the data was reduced usingeqn 12 and then fitted with a Weibull distribution or a mixture of distribu- . 'tions. Figures 6 and 7 summarize the results with appropriate equationsdefining each distribution, as well as the mean bird weights.
38
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52
COMIPJNENT S'KR1NG'rH i) [S'rRIhUT LONS
"The canopy and windshield strength distributions are the percent area ofthe component which would be damaged, expressed as a function of impact kine-tic energy. Since the majority of USAF bird impact testing is done with .,equivalent of a 4 lb bird, the strength distributtons have been derived oasedon the kinetic energy developed by this bird weight.
For example:
K.E. 1 1/2 mV2 (14)
so, for the impact by a 4 lb bird at 410 Knots:
m 4 - .1242 LBS
32.2 FT/SEC2
410 Knots X 1.688 - 692.0800 ft/sec
K.E. - 1/2 (.1242) (692.0800)2
K.E. - 29,744.3305 FT-LBS
Based on Figure 16 for the above kinetic energy, 100% of the present F-15windshield is critical, meaning that a penetration would occur anywhere on thewindshield by a 4 lb bird. At a velocity of 330 knots, an impact by a 4 lbbird (KE - 19,269.23 FT-LBS) makes the windshield 44% critical (44% chance ofpenetration occurring). Figure 8 shows the F-IS single and two seat modelaircraft windshield and canopy profiles. Figures 9 and 10 define the presentcomponent capability in terms of penetration/no penetration.
The present capability for the windshield and canopy was obtained from,.past F-15 bird impact tests (McDonnell Douglas Report, MDC A4888). Since twobird impact points tested were not the most critical locations on the wind-shield, T-38 data was used to develop the present capability as shown infigtres 9 and 10. The T-38 data was extracted from AFNAL report #TR-80-3132,PART 1, and it was used since the T-38 had an exhaustive bird impact testprogram, as well as the T-38 windshield is geometrically similar and made outof the same material (monolithic stretched acrylic) as the F-15 windshf.el.d.Percentage of area was determined by using the T-38 percentage distribution(F-15 capability). Figure 15 shows the T-38 penetration values by a 4 lb birdas obtained from the bird impact test program. Using similar ratios, the F-15capability was obtained and is summarized in Figures 9 and 10.
Example calculation:
From F-15 birdatrike test on windshield, no penetration occurred at393 kts (severe cracking); at 431 kts, penetration occurred (center impact).
53
Therefore, 431-393 - 38 KTS
38 -192 393 + 19 412 =-410 KTS
410 kts represents the predicted penetration value since severecracking occured at 393 KTS.
= 390 KTS represents no penetration by a 4 lb bird
= 410 KTS represents penetration by 4 lb bird
* A of 20 KTS from severe cracking to penetration.
Further, additional areas were assessed as follows:
From Fig. 15
320 - 210 - 110 KTS (A)
320 - 230 = 90 KTS (A).
For F-15 same areas,
410 - 110 - 300 KTS
410 - 90 - 320 KTS.
Results summarized in figure 10.
For the F-15 canopy only one point was tested, near. the canopy arch. At 160KTS, no penetration occurred, and at 182 KTS, penetration did occur. Thetransition zone was estimated from 180 to 450 using T-38 percentage areas fromnReference 2. The T-38 canopy value of 125 KTS was represented for the F-15 bya range from 180 - 450 KTS, since the F-15 canopy is thicker than the T-38 andit was not felt that decreasing capability exists for the F-15 as it does forthe T-38. The zone for the T-38 that is represented by 125 KTS could haveeasily been a bad shot. Therefore, the F-15 transition zones were estimatedas shown in Figure 16. The plotted values were bird penetration values fromFigure 10. Similar methods were used to extrapolate increased windshield andcanopy capabilities, and these are summarized in Figures It - 14. Increasedcapability component strength distributions are summarized in Figures 17 and18.
The above approach was recommended by Mr Blaine West from University ofDayton Research Institute, since it was representative of realistic componentcapability. The above component strength capabilities were estimated usingthe above estimation process.
54
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62
MODEL APPLICATION
S.nce all inputs have been already derived, the number of penetrat lon,, ona specific component, windshield or canopy, ca b by theA produci of:
#PIENF.'rRATioNs = OIR X FORCE USAGE X AP(V X AP(W) X CRITICAL, ARSA,•.,[
* OIR - OPERATIONAL IMPACT RATE PER 106 ItRS (15)
FORCE USAGE = TOTAL Flight Hours for specific mission air-to-air or air-to--ground .
A P(V) = aircraft velocity probabilityA P(W) - bird weight probabi lity
Critical area = Windshield or canopy area capability
A P(V) and A P(W) values are obtained by evaluating the respective cumulativeprobability distribution runction for a desired range (Table 9.0 - 9.6). Thecritical area values are obtained first by developing a kinetic energy matrix(Table 10.0).
Eqn 14 is used to determine each element of the matrix.
Example:
For velocity range 310 -360 - Nominal 335 KTS and bird weight
4- 5 -+ Nominal 4.5 LBS
KE 1 1/2 m V2
KE= 22,344 Ft Lbs
For velocity range 160 - 210 - Nominal 185 KTS and bird weight
1 - 2 ÷ Nominal 1.5 Lbs
KE 2271 Ft Lbs
From Table 10.0 for each kinetic energy value (each element), figures V, -I
are used to obtain proportion of component critical area. Table 10.1 and i)..'Lists the results in the 12 by 15 matrix, for the present rcapabti-Lfywindshield and canopy. The use of eqn 15 obtains the number of penetrat:otis-that exceed the kinetic energy of the specific subsystem. A sumnati•,l is thentakeO of all incremental bird penetration values from the 12 by 15 m~datrix, and(.a total number of penetrations for a specific usage pro)file is obtained.
63
AIR/AIR + INST/NAV + All gissions Flown (except AIR ro GROUND)-
CONUS & EUROPE
CUM. PROB vwocrry (KTS) vuIocr.rY (KTS) AP(V)
.0001 116 110 - 160 .0948
.0949 160 160 - 210 .1501
.2450 210 210 - 260 .1950
.4400 260 260 - 310 .2040.
.6440 310 310 - 360 .1660
.8100 360 360 - 410 .1080
.9180 410 410 - 460 .0540
.9720 460 460 - 510 .0210)
.9930 510 510 - 560 .0060.9990 560 560 - 610 .0010'
1.0000 610 610 - 660 01.0000 660 660 - 710 01.0000 710
7-7
-5 . 7 9 3 16 8 4- 2.49687XI0 1- V - 4.296046XIO-3+3.774985XI)-5 V3- 1.792476XI0- 7 V4 1 -- FOR 116<V<200
F(V) = +4.396387XIO-1 0 V5 - 4.371569X10- 1 3 V6 --
I ,, V-40 .2.813 74- . . .............................. FOR 200<V<720
Vtot= 279.24 Knots
I --
TABLE 9.0 F-15 PRESENT FLEE'T
64
AIR TO GROUND MISSION
CONUS & EUROPE
CUM PROB VEI.OCITY (KTS) vEIOCTrY (KTS) AP(V)
.0002 110 110 - 160 .0217 ....
.0219 160 160 - 210 .0257
.0476 210 210 - 260 .0111
.0587 260 260 - 311) .0102
.0689 310 310 - 360 .0626
.1315 360 360 - 410 .1905
.3220 410 410 - 460 .3040
.62.60 460 460 - 410 .2540
.8880 510 510 - 560 .1000
.8850 560 - 610 .O120
I.0000 610
4.2,601X1- 2 + 2.51505SX10-3 V-5.176007X10)5
F(V) = 4.649071X1'T7 V3 -1.908740X () V4 O IY<8
FV 3.569492X10-1 2 V5 V2160311 v6
V - 110 6.014649 71-110 -"4O-- FOR 310<V8:610.
vtotC 427.90 Knots
TABLE 9.1 F-15 RAPID DEIPLOYMENT FORCE
65..
AIR TO AIR + INSTINAV 4. All Missions Flown (excppt AIR TO GROUND)
CONUS & EUROPE
CUM PROB VFLOCI'TY (KTS) vELoci-Y (KTS) A P(V)
.0001 116 110 - 160 .094!3
.0949 160 160 - 210 .1501
.2450 210 210 - 260 .1950
.4400 260 260 - 310 .2040
.6440 310 310 - 360 .1660
.8100 360 360 - 410 .1080
.9180 410 410 - 460 .0540
.9720 460 460 - 510 .021 W
.9930 510 510 - 560 .0060
.9990 560 560 - 610 .0010
1.0900 610 610 - 660 .0000
1.0000 660 660 - 710 .0000)
1 .0000 710
-5.793168 + 2.49687[10-1 V - 4.296346X10-3 V2
+3.774985XL)- 5 V3 - 1.792476Xi(- 7 V4| FOR 116<V' 200
Vý(V) +4.396181Xi0- 10 V5 - 4.371569X10-1 3 V6
/ ~V-40 -2.812.1-exp(-(3------.................... FOR 2.0o"V'720
vtotC 279.24 Khots
TABLE 9.2 F-15 RAPID DEPLOYMENT FORCE
66
7)
AIR To0 Alit + INSTINM + All Mis'-.tons F Lown (excopt AIRit) Cr ROUND))
CONUS & EUIROPK
CIN PROB VELOCITY (KTS) VELOCITY (KI'S) AP(V)
.0001 116 110 - 160 .0948
.0949 160 160 - 210 .1501.'2450 210 210 - 260 .19S0.4400 260 260 - 310 .2040.6440 310 310 - 360 .1660.8100 360 360 - 410 .1080.9180 410 410 - 460 .0540.9720 460 460 - 5A0 .022110.9930 510 510 - 560 .0060.9990 560 560 - 610 .001)
l.q0000 610 610 - 660 .00001.0000 660 660 - 710 .00001.0000 710
-5.793168 + 2.49687XI0 V -V 4.296046XO- 3 V2
+3.774985X10-5 V3 - 1.792476XI0- 7 V4 1 FOR 116<V-.200
F(V) = +4.396387(10-10 V5 -- 4,371569X10 1- 3 V6 ...
1 _ - 30 7 -40- )_. .. .. . . . . . . . . . FO R 20 , VV 1 0
Vto0 279.24 Knots
TABILE 9.3 l"--15 DUAL. ROIM, FLGIIT '',
67
AIR TO GROUND MISSION
CONUS & EUROPIE
CUM PROB VELOCITY (KTS) VE.LOCITY (KTS) A P(V)
.0032 110 110 - 160 .0431
.0463 160 160 - 210 .0159
.0,22 210 210 - 260 .0153
.0775 260 260 - 310 .0195
.0970 310 310 - 360 .025•
.1095 360 360 - 410 .0375
.1470 410 410 - 460 .2470
.3940 460 460 - 410 .4390
.8330 510 510 - 560 .1630
.9960 560 560 - 610 .0040
1. 0000 6W0
+8.284557X10. 5 -5.55111Xl0-3 V +1.172276XI0f-4 V2
l-9.165418Xi0- 7 V3 +3.493164X10- 9 V4 FORl 1l10<V-440'
F(V) = 1-6.493033XI0-1 2 V5 +4.716360XI0-1
5 V6
/1exp(_(V _- 110 )9.5321)
Vtot= 45.91 Knots
'rAWLE 9.4 F-15 DUAL ROLE PICIIEI'Iz
68
CONUS
WEI(;WT (LBS) A P(W) CUM. PROB WEL;GIT (LKS)
0 - I .5t49 0 01 2 .1631 .5149 12 - 3 .1074 .6780 23 - 4 .0668 .7854 34 - 5 .0438 .8522 45 - 6 .0295 .8960 56 - 7 .0204 .9255 67 8 .0144 .9459 78 - 9 .0103 .9603 89 - 10 .0075 .9706 9
10 - 11 .0054 .9781 to11 - 12 .0040 .9835 It12 - 13 .0030 .9875 1213 - 14 .0022 .9905 1314 - 15 .0017 .9927 14
.9944 15
- W 1.4145 " .-'-____2.2130• -- -- - FOR OýW<.9
F(1) .1688 W + .3461 FOR .9<W<1.7
.. W ,.7550
16950exp--*----------) FOR 1.7<W<17
TABLE. 9.5 B1RI) WEl'[(IIT I)S'TRIBUT'[ON
69
EUROPE
WEI r(;IIT (1,BS) A P(W) CUM. PROB NEL(11T ( I.,S)
() - I .7 93 (. 79.-2 .1022 .7793I ..
2 - 3 .0449 .8815 2
3 - 4 .0243 .9264 3
4 - 5 .0147 .9507 4
5 - 6 .0094 .9654
6 7 .0064 .9748 6
7 8 .0045 .9812 7
8 - 9 .0032 .9857 8
* 0 .0024 .9889 9
1 I - I1 .0018 .991:1 IO
I - 12 .0014 .9931 1'
12- 13 .0010 .9945 12
13 14 .0008 .9955 13
14 15 .0007 .9963 14.9970 15
W .4972(W) 1.e(( . FOR 0- W< 17
Wtot= .87 Lb.
TA'.I'A e, 9.6 BIRD JE[GIlT I)[;t'( I II'I ION
70
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iiSiH OF COMP1JT.R PROGRAM FOR MODEL APPLICATION
Appendix A lists an interactive computer program which was used ttE obtaljIthe number of bird penetrations for each component varying t,,, Program SAAPIFevatlzates the present fleet air-to-air mission. The inputs for the prpr.a,ar,, In I nwt ntimbi' r 140 - 740 .and e;in he ehvingi'd ro evawItint,, Ihe RI'I) .0si,.I I):!!";lIr-to-alr/afr-to-grund issios, in the above program Iltnes, the fallowrWfo,art? Inpit parameters:
(140) PWC - A P(W) bird weight probability for CONUS. From Table 9.5 (Do,'snot change when evaluating F-15 Present Fleet, P-15 RPD, F-15 DRF).
(161) PWE - A P(W) bird weight probability for Europe. From Table 9.6 (Dov.;not change when evaluating F-15 Present Fleet, F-15 RPD, F-15 DRF).
(230) PVI - A P(V) velocity probability. From Table 9.0 - 9.5 (changte for
air-to-air and air-to-ground missions)
(250- 740) Windshield and Canopy Critical area Proportions. Fron Tabl,"10.1 and 10.2 for present Windshield and Canopy CapabLtIty.(These values change for increased capebility. By usticFigures 17 and 18, a similar Table to 10.1 and 11.2 can be
obtained).
Appendix B contains the results, after running the program BAAPP, for theF-15 present fleet (air-to-air mission). The first matrix, expected numbher ofbirdstrikes (uncorrected), is not corrected for critical area. The secondmatrix, expected number of birdstrikes, is corrected for critical area, andthe summation of all elements of this matrix is the total number of penetra-tions for a specific, component, theatre, OR, Force Usage, or mission. TheAppendix C program lists only the results, the total number of bird pen,'tra-t inns.
73
EVALUATION OF RESULTS
To date, the F-15 fleet has had one bird penetration on the winftshield,and two incidents resulting in two cracked windshields and one cracked canopy.Of these two incidents, no penetration into the cockpit has occurred. TahiM.11 smminrtzes the results of this model's simulation of the P-15 present fleethatied on the number of hours flown to date in Coalus and Hurope and on tt- pre-sent windshield/canopy capability. It is important to note that any valiieothier than an integer value for a penetration is meaningless; however, qincethis simulation is a numerical solution, fractional values will occur. Forexample, for Conus, the model predicts 0.45 bird penetrations on the canopyand to date there have been none. Since this is a numerical solution, one canimagine a counter starting when the F-15 fleet started flying. The 0.45 pene-trations implies we have not had a penetration on the canopy to this date, butgiven more time, we will.
The model simulated past history very well, the same methodology was ,iqedto evaluate the F-15 RPD and DRF. The results are presented in Figures19 - 70 for different missions with varytng Ts and force usage (flight hours).A realistic usage profile is summarized in Table 12.0 - 12.7 for the RPI) andDRF over a 15 year flying period. These graphs can also be used to evaluateother and possibly more realistic usage profiles.
Evaltation of Table 12.7 indicates that, even with a 500 kt windshield and350 kt canopy, bird penetrations into the cockpit will still occur; however,there is little that can be done to prevent an 8 lb bird from penetrating -it480 knots. To dissipate the energy resulting from an impact of such a severecondition could require structural considerations that would interfere withthe capability and function of the aircraft, as well as make the design costprohibitive based on latest state of the art technology in transparencydesign.
The number of penetrations that are represented in either the tables orthe graphs do not imply aircraft losses. Based on McAir's initial analyses orhistorical data, one out of every three penetrations resulted in an aircraftloss, fatality, or pilot major injury. This ratio was used to assess theresults in terms of aircraft losses, fatalities or pilot major in jories.llowr!ver, one should note that this type of ratio io based on a sm:nll dattaq:.mpte and has not been verified against all existing data from which a mr..realistic ratio might be inferred.
Figures 19 through 70 can be used to predict the number of bird 1en,,tra-tions for a change in T. if the force usage shown In Tables 12.0, 12.4, and12.5 remains the same. From Table 12.3, it is found that the F-15 RPD air toground missions predicts 9.5 windshield bird penetations for a Ts of 0.8056and the present windshield capability in CONUS. What is the expected ,itimherof windshield bird penetrations. if the time spent in the bird threat environ-meat is reduced to a T. of 0.6? First find the right graph, in this case,Figure 27, "F-IS RPD, Present Windshield Capability, COiLUS, Air to Ground."Then from Table 12.0. "F-15 RPD Force Usage," the number of flight hovrs forthe CONUS and air to ground case, 141,750 hours, is used in Figure 27. SinceFigure 27 doesn't have a line for a T. of 0.6, the vatle is interpolatodbetween T. of 0.5 and 0.7. From the graph:
"c' Co)'/
Windshield BirdAt Flight Hours 'Ts Penetrations (WBIP)
141,750 .5 WBP.5 = 5.6141,750 .6 WBP.6 = ?141,750 .7 WBP.7 = 8.3
Using a ratio to interpolate
WBP.7 - WBP.6 WBP.7 - WBP.5Ts.7 - Ts.6 Ts.7 - Ts.5
Solving for WBP,6 -....-
S.7-.5/ _).!
WBP.6 = 6.95 windshield bird penetrations
CONCLUSIONS
A statistical simulation was used to evaluate the F-15 present, windshieldand canopy capability with respect to the number of bird penetrations into theilcockpit. The results of this simulation as applied to the present fleetrecreated past history very precisely. Similar methodology was used to evahate Ithe F-15 RPD and DRF. The results indicate that the model, using the ass Imp-
tions and parameters of this analysis, predicts that the p)resent windshield andcanopy need improvement for the air -to-ground mission of the RPD and I)RF.
I 75
BIRD PENETRATIONS*A
MODEL SIMULATION HISTOrICAL.
CONUS EUROPE C0NUJS EUROPE
Windshield 1.10 0.08 1 r)
Canopy 0.45 0.62 0 C
Hours Flown 473008 136576 473008 136576
Ts .1198 .2307 .1198 .23 7
e *with present windshield and canopy capability
TABLE 11 F-IS PRESENT FLEET ATIR TO AIR MISSION
V 76
MOa IUAIN ITR(A,"
K.>
Number of aircraft available 150 aircraft
Average n~umber of hours flown per muonth 25 hours;
The total number of flying hours fpr 15 yei~rs is:
15 years X 150 A/C X 25 hro X 12 months 675,000 lirsmonth year
Aircraft's distribution: I - Con.. = 70% of aircraft2 - Europe~ = 30% of ai.reraf t
The mission mix is* I - 30% air to ground (A/O2 - 70% air to air (A/A)
Smix data obtained from HQ TAG message 221715 .July 1982
For 1 r Years of F-15 MIrD Force Usage
Aombrned Copnus (70%) Europe (30'),Contis Europe
Tota al hours 675,yn00 472,500 202,500
A/ yHours (30%) 141,750 61n750 .8056 .8056hrs
A/A 11oiars (70%) 2 330,750 E4-,75' .1198 .2307
TABLE~ 12.0 F-15 RPI) F'ORCE UJSAGEI
77
WINDSHTELD BIRD PENETRATIONS
Present 450 Knota 500 KnotsCapability Capability Capability
Conus .75 .15 .09
Europe .08 .016 .009
CANOPY BIRD PENETRATIONS
Present 300 Knots 350 Knots
Capability .. Capability Capability
COnus .30 .11 .07
Europe .65 .19 .05
TABLE 12.2 F-15 RPD AIR TO AIR MISSION
WINDSHIELD BIRD PENETRATIONS
Present 450 Knots 500 KnotsCapability Capability Capability
Conus 9.50 3.20 2.40
Europe .60 .17 .12
CANOPY BIRD PENETRATIONS
Present 300 Knots 350 KnotsCapability Capability Capability
Conus 2.60 1.40 1.05
Iu4rope 3.50 1.50 I..i
TABLE 12.3 F-15 RPD AIR TO GROUND MISSION
78
Production schedule obtained from HQ USAF message 082200Z Apr 83
Years of Number Cumulative Flight ioursProduction of A/C Number of A/C per car . .
1st 16 16 4,800
2nd 72 88 26,400
3rd 72 160 48,000
4th 72 232 69,600
5th 72 304 91,200
6th 60 364 109,200
7th 36 400 120,000
Total flight hours for the first 7 years: 447,648
Sample Calculation: for the first year:
16 A/C X 25 flight hours X 12 month - 4800 flight hoursmonth year
For the remaining 8 years, the number of flight hours is:
400 A/C X 25 flight hours X 12 month X 8 years = 960,000 hoursmonth year
The total flight hours for 15 years is:
447,648 hours + 960,000 hours 1,407,648 hours
TABLE 12.4 F-IS DRF FORCE USAGE
79
Aircraft distribution: 1 - Conus 70% of aircraft2 - Europe - 30% of aircraft
The mission mix is: I - 757. Air to ground (A/G)2 - 25% Air to air (A/A)
For 15 years of F-15 DRF Force Usage
Combined Conus Europe To TsConus Europe
Total flours 1,407,648 985,353 422,294
A/G Hours (75%) 739,015 316,720 .6360 .6360
A/A Hours (25%) 246,338 105,573 .1198 .2307
TABLE 12.5 F-15 DRF FORCE USAGE
80
WINDSHIELD BIRD PENETRATIONS
Present 450 Knots 500 KnlotsCapability Capability Capability
Conus .55 .10 .06
Europe .06 .01 0
CANOPY BIRD PENETRATIONS
Present 300 Knots 350 Knots
Capability Capability Capability
Conus .40 .13 .08
Europe .80 .25 .15
TABLE 12.6 F-15 DRF AIR TO AIR MISSION
WINDSIIIELD BIRD PENETRATION
Present 450 Knots 500 KnotsCapability Capability Capability
Conus 45.5 17.0 10.9
Europe 2.8 .9 .6
CANOPY BIRD PENETRATIONS
Present 300 Knots 350 KnotsCapability Capability Capability
Conus 19.2 10.7 8.9
Europe 25.5 11.5 8.5
TABLE 12.7 F-15 DRF, AIR TO GROUND MISSION
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APPENDIX A
loom PROGRAMl SAAPF(INPUTeOUTPUT)110. DIMENSION PW(1S),PWC(15)rPWE(15;).BWGT(15)120. DIMENSION VEL(1Z)rPV(l2),PV1(12).ENOS(12.15)13Om DIMENSION ACA(12,15),ACAW(12,15)vACAC(12,15)140a DATA PWC,.5149,.1e6j1r.1074p..668t 436...0295P..204P.0144,1500 1.0103r.007U,.00!)Y4,.0040,.0030,.00Z2,.0017/1602 DATA PWE/.7`/93,.1022t.O449,.0z43P.O147,.0094,.0064,.0045,170m 1.0032,.0024r.0018,.0014,.0010,.0009,.0007/
190" AA8 05
200. DATA VEL/"110-16O","160-2lO',"210-260",280-jl0N",3l0-3G0M,2108220a 1 "610-660" r"S660-710"/230m DATA PVI/.0548,.ISQL,.1950r.2040,.1560P..1080.0540,.0210,.0060,240a 1.0010o.0.0o.0/250-C WINDSHIELP AC/A260a DATA (ACAW(1,rJ',J"1,15)/0..0..O. ,0.w.'3.,O..0.0.270a280. DATA (ACAW(2rJ) ,J1 * 15)/0. .0. 0.. ,0. O.0. .0O. 0
320N DATA (ACAI4(4,J),JOIL.5)/0.,0. ,0.,0.. .I84,.448r.4889..Z9.
340., DATA (ACAWCS.J)rJ1.1l5)/0.,0. tO. ,.26,.477, .3331 .0,1.0,
360a DATA (ACAW(67rJ) ..fQrI,1)/0. Oo 19g, .484r.357l.1., 1.0~.1.0
3800a DATA CA'J)J.5/.0 .6,.51.l...,.0
400. DATA (CWGj ~11)0 00 581,. 911.410m420. DATA (AL'AW(8&i) ,JWv1.tS)/0. ..440, A.OP 1.0,1.O,1.0l.O. i.01430m 1..1.1..1..440m OATA (ACAW(I0.J) .J.1.l!5150. ..481,1.0,1.0.t.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,450-480a DATA (ACAW( ltJ) .J.l1.)/0. ,.527.1.t. 1.0,.0, 1.0,1.0,1.0.470a. oFI480a DATA (GW1~)1i13/...,.1..1,.10490m500aC CANOPY AC/A510a DATA (ACAC(1.lJ),.3.ii5)/0.-.0O.rO ,.,0. .0.0.,.207p520a 1.3029.3SU3,.4933.5883,.684,.77S..B05/530. DA~rA (ACAC(Z.J,).J.'1,15)/0. O.0.0. .0...298..477,.656,.502,
5600 .7.88.~3.9'.7,97570w DATA (ACAC(4.J),JCIc,15)/0.,0.,.554,.812,.841,.870,.899..928I
610. DATA (ACAC(6.J),J.1,15)I0.,.6355..43,.896..349.1.0.1.0,1.Oo620. 11.0,1.0r1.0. .0,1 ~.o .00,1.0/WO0N DATA (ACAC(7.J) .J-1,1!)/06,.812,.8)79P. .47.11.01.0t.1.0.1.0640a 11.011.011.0. 1.00,1.011.011.0/650- DATA(CA(J)J11)0..3,211010.0..1o6602 10101010101010670a DATA (ACAC(SaJ),J*-1,)/.Z41, .864..966.1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0r1.0,Sa0- 11.01.01 O1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0/GsJom DATA(AA; ';'.J11i/.8. 101010.0.0
CWp aOUQ~Qblo to D7TIC d4000J~.r~itfuly lgibe zPloduction
134I
710a DATA (ACAC(11.J),JZ.15S)/.547. .927,1.Ol.1.0.1.0,.Q.1.0.I.0.720m 11 .Oe1..1� 100t.0v.1.0.1.0.1qo/730m DATA (ACAC(12.J) .J.1.1S)/.7189 .982,1.0.1.0.1.0.1.0.1.0.1.0.740m 11.0p.01.01 0.1.001.~10i.0,1.0/750. 1 PRINT *r"WINDSHIELD OR CANOPY ?760m READ 1010,PART770m IF(P#ART*EG.NWINDSHIELD*)GOTO 810700c rFCPCART.C0. "CANOPY" ?O0T0 ~00790. PRINT *."PLEASE 9NTkR 'WINDSHIELD' OR 'CANOPY'*BO0M GOTO 1.810. 910 DO 820 1.1,12020a DO 620 Jul.15830. 020 ACAtIJ)-ACAW(I.J)840. GOTO 3Bl0m 930 DO 940 1=1,128600 DO 940 Jm1.15070m 640 ACA(IJ)zACAC(X,J)880. 3 PRINT *,*UOPERATIONAL IMPACT RATE (PER 10**G aogo& READ *,OIRS00n 10 PRINT *.'CONUS OR EUROPE? --910m READ 1010.WHERE920. PRINT *,"ENTER FORCE USAGE4308 READ *rFU940m IF(WHERE.ES."CONUSO)hOTO 209500 IF(WHERE.EQ."EUROPEN)OOTO 40So0n PRINT *.'PLEASE ENTER 'CONUS' OR 'EUROPE'"
870m GOTO 10890m 20 DO 30 101,13890m 30 PW(X).PWC(1)10000. GOTO, 9010100 40 D0 50 1.1.1510206 50 PII(I?.PWdECI)1030a 60 PRINT *.OENTER % F-15 a*1040m READ *,PIS1030m IF(P15.E8.100.)OOTO 701060s PRINT *u"MARNING THE MIX DID NOT TOTAL 100%*1070. 70 F15.p 15/100. -
1090= DO 90 1.,121090= 80 PY(I)mFIS*PVl(t)1100m 1P15OP1511109 PRINT l020vWHERErIP`15,PARTO.1ORrFU1120. PRINT I0'.5#9WOT11300 DO 1"., 1=1,121140. DO 90 J01,151150. ENOB(IPJ)uOIROFU*PV(I)ePWCJ-)1180. 90 CONTINUE1170m 100 PRINT 1030.VEL(I).(ENOS(I,J).J.1.1S)1190. PRINT 104011900 PRINT 1025.8MGT1200m Sa01210. DO 120 1.1,121220m Do 110 Jm1,151230a ENOBC X.J)mENOB( I J)*ACA( IrJ)1240a B'ENOB(IrJ) +B1250. 110 CONTINUE1260a 120 PRINT 1030,yEL(I),(ENOB(XJhrJ.1,15)1270m PRINT 1060.81280. 1010 FORMAT(AIO):250m 1020 FORPYAT(IHI.1300. 1 1OXwA1O,131." F-I3 MIX (".A10,")",
135)
1310a 2 //,lOX.,0OIR ="F.10.2#" /10**6 FU ="PFlO.4t" *10**6'p13208 3 ////,ZSX#"EXPECTED NUMBER OF BIRDSTRIKE (UNCORRECTED)"
M )
1330m 1025 FORMAT(/#,3X,"VELOCITY ",25X."BIRD WEIGHT (LOS)",1340m 1 /,3Xt"(KNOTS, ",1SFS.3)1350w 1030 FORMAT(/,3XtA1O,15F9.4)1360a 1040 FORMAT(////r25X,"EXPECTED NUMBER OF BIRDSTRIKES (CORRECTED)*)?
1370a 1060 FORMAT(/o.25X-THE TOTAL EXPtCTED NUMBER OF PENETRATIUNS "F10.4)
13800 END1390. .EOR
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P. z I.us 0 0 0 0 O m n N V 0 Nl 0 0 onoL 0 0 Ol 0 V 0 N r) 0 0 0 W -U. bin 0 0 -, a N 0 M 0 0 0 0 0 x 00 0. 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-0
*~~ 0. CK 0 0 0 .. n 0I aD CD .4 M 0 0 XS 0 0 0 I 0n 0 0 0 D N4 0 0 0 x -Z n 0 0 (0 0 N 0 0 0 0 0 0 :
000 00 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 E
CU~~CL ; 0 0 L
0. 0 0 0 0 0 4 04 N C 0 0 0 U ONOX , in N N 0 1 0 V -r In - ) 0 0 9 1 L 00
D 0 1.1
-j2 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 o 0 0 0W 0 00 00 00 0D 0 0D 0 W - EC=U.4
C-4 N M V) le V ) tU w t
0 0 0 00 0 0 0 014.
APPENDIX C
100a PROGRAM RAAPF(INPUTPOUTPUT)1100 DIMENSION PW.(15hPWC(15)oPWE(13),BbICT(15)1Z02 DIMENSION VELCIZ).PV(12),PVI(12).ENOB(12.15)130. DIMENSION ACA(1Z,15),ACAW(12,15).ACAC(l2.15)140a DATA PWC/.5149..1631,.1074..0699,.0438,.OZS9u'SOZO
4.. 0 14 4 ,
ISOM 1.0103,.0075..0054t.0040P.0030..0022,.0017/160M DATA PkE/.7793,.1022..0449,.0243..0147..0094P..OOS
4 r..O4 5170m 1.0032,.0024,.0018S.0014,.001Og.000Be.0007/180u DATABk T/,15253545556S? 5 BS 9 'O 5
isom 111.5.12.5#,13.5*14.5/ZOOM DATA VEL/M110-16O"in160-210"Pe210ZS80u.N 2SO-3 10f," 3I- 3 SON,2108 1"6-1*"1-6""6-1**1-6""6-1"220m VB10-860",4660-7100/230a DATA PVI/.0848..l5O1..1S50..2040'e.1I90..10SOt.054
0 ,.O2lO'.OOSOP240m 1.0010O.O.o.0.0250-C WINDSHIELD AC/A260. DATA (ACAWCI,J)rJin1.15)/0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,O.,O..0.,
2130m DATA (ACAW(2,J).Ju1.15)/0.,0.,O..O.,Q.,0.,0.,0.,290a 1O..O.,0.v.258r.439#.4V6..473/300. DATA (ACAW(3.J) .J=I,15)/0..O.,.0. O..O.P.0.O.O..432.310- 1.459,.487..514,.542,l.0,l.O.1.O/320m DATA (ACAW(4,J),Jml.15)/0.P.0O.0.O.,..184,.448..488..529,
340a DATA (ACAW(5.J),J.1.15)/0.,O.,0...256,.477,.533,1.0r.1.,
360m DATA (ACAW(6,J),Jul,15)/0.,0.,.1g88.484#.557,l.0,1.Ol.1.,
380w DATA (ACAN(7,J) ,Ju1,15)/0..O.r.4B1..53551.0l.1.0l.0u1.0,
400m DATA (ACAH(9,J),J1l,15)/0.,O.0,.518,1.,A.1 19.
420a DATA (ACAW(SPJ),J.I,15)/0.. .440,1.0.1.O,1.0,1.0r.1.0..0,430a 19.19.1.19.440. DATA (ACAW(10.J),.,i.115)/0...481,1.0.l.OP.1.0l.0v1.Op.1.0
480a DATA (ACAW(11,J).Ja1.15)/0...5Z7P.1.0..O,1.O,1.0r1.0.1.0,
480s DATA CACAW(12,J).Ja1.15)/0.O,1.l.1l..1.1. 1.p1.l.0
500sC CANOPY AC/A510. DATA IACAC(I.J),J-1,15)/0..O.0.p.tO.r.0.0.0.,.207.5204 1.302,.398,.493,.588,.884,.7'79..S05/530- DATA (ACAC(2.J),J.1,15)/0..O.,0.,0...298,.477,,.658..80Z.540a 1.814;.828..839,.851 ..s313..75,..s9./5508 DATA (ACAC(3,J).JZml15)/O.,O...214v.503,.792 ,.Gi&r3, 3,p.85,560. 1.878,..98P..918.937..957..977..997/570m DATA (ACAC(4,J),Jn1,15)/0.,O.,.554p..92p..41..870F..1B9.92S,
5800- 11.0,1.0~,1.0,1.0.1.0.1.0,1.0/610. DATA (ACAC(6,J),Ja1.15)/0.P.3B55..S310.S851.949,1#.031,.01.0,
* 600 11.0o.1.0.1.,1.0p.1.0.1.00..O/630N DATA (ACACC7,J),Ju1.15)/0.,.912,..979..97,1.0.1.1.0l.01l.o.640- 11.0. 1.0.1.0,1.0,1.0.1.0.1.0o/
* 630a DATA (ACAC(8.J),Jol.15)/0.,.812B..7921.9.,1.0,1.0.1.0.1.0.640a 1I.Op1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0p. 1.0.1./670- DATA CACAC(9.J) .J-1.15)/O.24.984. .996.1.0.1.0,1.0,1.0.1.0,6800 11.0.1.0.1.0.0 0.1.01.0r.1.0o/
690a DATA (ACAC(10,J),J.1.15)/.397..894I.1.0.1.0..0,1.Q.1.0,1.0,700~m 11.0-1.0.11.011.0.1.0,'t.0,1.0/
145
710o DATA (ACAC(11,PJ),Js1.15)/.547, .927.1.0r.1.0t.0,'.1.01.0,1.0.720. 11.0,1.0,1.0.1l.0,1.0r.1.0.1./730m DATA (ACAC(l2,J),JUI,15)/.719,.96ZeI.0r.1.0,1.O,1.0.1.O,1.O,740w 11.0.1.0.1 .0.1.0o,1.O,1.0,1 .0/750m 1 PRINT *,"UINDSHIELD aft CANOPY (Wi OR C) ?-760. READ 1010,PART770m IF(PART.EG."Id")GGTO 910780m IF(PART.EG."C")GOTO 830790m PRINT *,"PLEASE ENTER 1W' FOR WINDSHIELD OR 'C' FOR CANOPY'88008 OOTIO I810w 610 DO 520 m1#12820m DO 620 Jul.15830m 820 ACA(ItJ)-ACAW(I.J)840m GOTO 5950. 830 DO 840 Jul.128603 DO 840 J-l,13870m 840' ACA(I.J)uACAC(IJ)Sa0= 5 PRINT *,"OPERATIONAL IMPACT RATE PER 10*.6)8902 READ *vOIRSoon 10 PRINT *,"CONIJS OR EUROPE? (ICI OR 'E') -- i9102 READ 1010.MHERE920m IF(WHERE.EO.wC".GR.NHERE.EO."E") 00 T0 15930m PRINT *,"PLEASE ENTER 'C' FOR CONUS OR 'E' FOR EUROPE --
940n OOTO 10950m 15 PRINT *,"ENTER FORCE USAGE9608 READ *.FU970s IF(WHERE.EG."E*) 00 TO 40980.m 20 00 30 1-1.15990n 30 PW(I).PWC(I)
10000 (00 TO 601010. 40 DO 50 1.1.151020w 50 PM(I)mPWE(I)1030m 60 P15=1001040a IF(PI3.EG.1QO.)OOTO 701050. PRINT *,*WARNING THE MIX DID NOT TOTAL 100%01060. 70 F15uPI5/100.1070m DO 60 Is~.11090. 80 PV(I) F1 *PV1 (I'1090. IPismPIS1100. DO 100 1=1,121110. DO 90 Jul '151120. ENOS(IPJ).OIR*FU*PV(I)*PW(J)1130. 90 CONTINUE1140m 100 CONTINUE1150P Bo01160. DO 120 Ilal.121170m DO 110 Jul.151160. ENOB1U.J) ENOB( IJ)ACA(I.J)1190. suENOB(I 0J) +01200w 110 CONTINUE1210m 120 CONT INUE1220m PRINT 1060.51230s 1010 FORMAT(A1O)1240m 1020 FORtWAT(N1H11250- 1 1OXiAIO,13." F-13 MIX C"sA1O6)w,'1260. 2 //r10XvwOZR wwF1O.2," / 10**8 FU a OPF1O.4," *10**6".lZ70s 3 ////,ZSX,"EXPECTED NUMBER OF BIRDSTRIKE (UNCORRECTED)")1 280w 1025 FORMAT(/.3XP"YELOCITY ".25X.BXRD WEIGHT (LBS)"r1290. 1 /.3X0N(KNOTS) 03 15F9.3)1300m 1030 FORMAT(/v3XiA1O.15FS.4)1310s 1040 FORMAT(////,25X,wEXPECTED NUMBER OF GIRDSTRtIKES (CORRECTED)")1320m 1080 FORMAT(/.25Xp"THE TOTAL EXPECTED NUMBER OF PENETRATIONS ",FIO.4'1330- END
146
REFEREINCES
1. "An Analytical Methodology to Predict Potential Aircraft Losses Due toCanopy Birdstrikes," April 1980, Dr John C. Halpin and John M, Griffin,Aeronautical Systems Division, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Dayton, Ohio.
2. "IEvaluation of the Birdstrike Threat to T-38 Transparencies,"UDR-TH-79-12, July 1979, A. Berens, University of Dayton Research Institute,Dayton, Ohio.
3. "List of Identified Birds Involved ia Bird Strikes," Logbook Call#204-293, May 1982 - March 1983, obtained from Lt Will, Bird Aircraft StrikeHazard Team, Tyndall AFB.
4. "List of Identified Birds Involved in Birdstrikes," March 1976 - September1977, Obtained from Lt Will, Bird Aircraft Strike Hazard Team, Tyndall APB.
5. "Weights of a Number of Birds," May 1970, G. Kaiser, Canadian WildlifeService.
6. "F-15C/D Structural Loads Report for Production Eagle Package," MIC A5318,October 1978, McDonnell Aircraft Company.
7. "Final Report Windshield/Canopy Bird Impact Resistance," August 1977,McDonnell Aircraft Company.
8. "F-15 DRF Structural Design Criteria," Memorandum 199-DRF-169, September1982, McDonnell Aircraft Company.
147 U. s.Governmeni. rt ilt i 0 fico 1984 - ) 00,-1 2001?:147
