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鄭秀玲教授 台灣大學經濟學系 2013/07/16 1 兩岸服貿協議對我國的衝擊分析

兩岸服貿協議對我國的衝擊分析

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  • 1. 2013/07/16 1

2. 2 (Joseph Stiglitz) 3. 3 4. ECFA 4 2010629 ECFA 201289 2013621 ( ) 2013 ECFA 5. 5 http://www.ecfa.org.tw/ 6. 6: (1)(2)(3)(4) E. (b)( ) (CPC83104**) (1) (2) (3) (4) (c) (CPC83101**) (1) (2) (3) (4) (d) (CPC83106-831 09)( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) F. (a) (CPC871**)( ) (1) (2) (3) (4) (b) (CPC86401** ) (1) (2) (3) (4) (c) (CPC865) (1) (2) (3) (4) Page8 7. () 7: (1)(2)(3)(4) 8. 8 WTO(GATS)4 (1) (2) (3) (4) 9. 9 / (1). a. b. c. d. e. (2) ( ) (3) (4) (5) (6) ( ) (1) (2) (3) . (1) (1) (2)() (3) ( ) (1)() (2) (3) ( ) (4) ( ) (1) (1) (2) (3) (1)( ) (1) (2) (1) (2) 10. / (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (1) (2) (3) (1) (1) (2) (3) () (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (2).( ) (3) (1) ( ) (2) (3) () ( ) () (4)() (5) (6) (7) () 10 11. 11 1. () 2. 3. 2 1. 2. 3. 50% 1. 2. 1. 50% 2. 3. 12. () 1. 2. 1. 30 65% 2. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. ()2 12 13. (Joseph Stiglitz) 13 :http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2013/07/10/2003566743 First, any trade agreement has to be symmetrical. Second, no trade agreement should put commercial interests ahead of broader national interests. Finally, there must be a commitment to transparency. By Joseph Stiglitz 14. 14 Joseph Stiglitz Stiglitz: 1. Stiglitz: 2. Stiglitz: 3. 15. 15 16. 3.1 : (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) 1.30 65% 2. (4) // () : 16 17. () () 4 4,282 82 5 4,086 182 7 2,984 123 29 1,336 378 3.2 : 17 2013500896 89 6 () () 30 1,321 32 305 365 -11 321 344 8 379 302 1 384 298 2 499 233 1 18. 444 94 1,193 10 137 610 92 1,653 4 143 827 20 864 6 97 896 24 667 6 82 230 4,377 26 459 3.2 : () 18 (Forbes) 2013 1 1,348 28,135 378 2,373 2 1,131 22,410 306 2,020 8 1,030 21,242 230 1,508 11 9,81 20,338 221 1,317 3,509 92,125 1,135 7,218 2040 19. 3.3 : 12.5 IBMPC (2005) 50 Morgan Stanley (2007) 30 (2007) 5520% (2007) 43 35 (2008) 40 (2008) 25020 (2009) 200 (2010) 151 (2013) 2008103 2012652 6 19 20. 3.4 : 20 93.5 86158.6 4.2 21. 3.5 21 22. 3.5 () 22 23. 23 50 100 402013 200 80 500 (1) (2) 2 (3) 2 (4) 100~1000 1000 2,000 20 2 501 7 3.5 () 24. 3.5 () 24 25. 25 26. 26 200625 82 200742 2007630 201011 201012 () 20111021 20111116 FTA 20111129FTA14 2012315FTA FTA 27. :FTA 27 2007 2010 3000cc2.5 3000cc3 8 2.545 845 10 2510 82510 10 84 5 5 101 4 12 24 201517 1401 119 6,500 25,000 snap back 20141 220161 L-11 5 3