Upload
others
View
6
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
6.3 Growth and survival of Columbia River Chinook salmon in the Northern
California Current
Brian Beckman1, Larissa Rohrbach2, Shel Nance2, Cheryl Morgan3, David Teel4, Kurt Fresh5
Environmental and Fisheries Sciences Division1, Conservation Biology Division4, Fish Ecology Division5
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WASAFS, University of Washington2; CIMRS, Oregon State University3
NWFSCEFS Division
May 5, 2015Protected Fish Species Review
Funding from: Bonneville PowerNWR NMFS BiopNMFS FATE Pacific Salmon Commission, Southern Fund
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
“Despite the importance of density dependence, very few studies have directly tested or even hypothesized density dependence during the ocean stage of Columbia River Basin salmonid populations (Table V.1).”
Arm wave
Carrying capacity, competition (indirect), size dependent
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
Hypothesis:marine survival of juvenile
salmon is directly related to early growth in the ocean
(Ocean Ecology of Pacific Salmon, Pearcy 1992)
1. How can growth in the ocean be measured?Or, why does a physiologist go to sea?
2. How can fish from different populations be distinguished(Sacramento, Columbia, Fraser)?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4
The hormone IGF1 is a growth index
5
attgactg = populationIGF1 = growth
Technological advances have made it possible to assess growth rate and population of origin
from individual fish caught at sea
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
NOAA Juvenile Salmon Ocean Survey
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Columbia River
Canada
Alaska
US
Seattle
BPA Plume Survey May
2006 – 2011 June
2000 - 2014
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
CP
UE
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Wes
tCS
p
Will
RS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Snk
Sp
Snk
Fa
UC
RS
uFa
CP
UE
May June
Yearling Columbia River Chinook salmon* abundance in the survey varies by month, stock and year
Wes
tCS
p
Will
RS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Snk
Sp
Snk
Fa
UC
RS
uFa
2006-2011*6 major stocks of Chinook salmon with yearling migrants5 are listed under the Endangered Species Act
Death orMigration?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
Columbia River
Canada
Alaska
US
Seattle
June*
July**
August
*Marc Trudel, DFO, Nanaimo
**Jamal Moss, Joe Orsi, NMFS, Juneau
May
UCR/Snake spring Chinook salmonquickly migrate north
10
Study of the marine ecology ofColumbia River Chinook salmon
needs to be spatially and temporally explicit
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11
1. Do growth & survival vary? Correlated?2. Do larger fish grow faster than smaller fish?3. Do smolts from hatchery stocks vary in size?4. Some data on biomass5. Implications of the present state of the NCC6. Summary
Outline
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12
Growth varies inter-annually
Snake River spring Chinook
June
IGF1
13
Growth varies inter-annuallyand by stock
IGF1
June
Snake R spring Chinook
Mid/Up Col R spring Chinook
Snake R fall Chinook
Up Col R summer/fall Chinook
14
Study of the marine ecology ofColumbia River Chinook salmon
needs to be stock-specific
Study of the marine ecology ofColumbia River Chinook salmon
needs to be spatially and temporally explicit
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
250000
275000
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
June SpChin IGF2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
20072006200520042003200220012000
2010
2012
2011
2013
TAC preseason estimate 2015 adults (jacks)
Growth is related to survival of spring Chinook (most years)
Spring ChinookCount @
Bonneville
r2=0.72p<0.01
No spring phytoplanktonbloom GOA
Current in-seasonestimate
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16
Low growth = low survival (always)High growth = high survival (usually)
=> Pearcy was right (usually)
Growth varies (it’s not about temperature)
=> Food is limited in some years
If food is limited
=> there is competition for foodin some years
17
June IGF1
IGF1 is correlated with an index of salmon prey(food)
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18
1. Do growth & survival vary? Correlated?2. Do larger fish grow faster than smaller fish?3. Do smolts from hatchery stocks vary in size?4. Some data on biomass5. Implications of the present state of the NCC6. Summary
Outline
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19
Length (mm)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Yearling Columbia R Chinook salmon:marine growth varies with size
IGF1
p<0.001, r2=0.202006 - 2011, May, all stocks
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 20
IGF1 - size relationships vary between years in May(slope of regression line)
Snake River spring Chinook salmon
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
40 45 50 55 60 65
2011
20102009200820072006
Snake R spring ChinookIGF vs length slope varies with
ocean conditions
slope
Ocean conditionsCoho salmon IGF1(PDO also works)
Good ocean
~
>>>
Bad ocean
10
20
30
40
50
slope IGF vs LEN
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
MayCPUE
30
40
50
60
Snake sp IGF
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
MayCPUE
2011
20102009200820072006
Neither IGF nor slope IGF vs Length are related to CPUE
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23
Larger fish grow fasterthan smaller fish
in“bad” ocean years
& it’s not related to abundance
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24
1. Do growth & survival vary? Correlated?2. Do larger fish grow faster than smaller fish?3. Do smolts from hatchery stocks vary in size?4. Some data on biomass5. Implications of the present state of the NCC6. Summary
Outline
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
51 4
231 2
5
46 4
0
Wei
ght
(g)
ReleaseSize
Wes
tCS
p
Will
RS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Snk
Sp
Snk
Fa
UC
RS
uFa
Fish PassageCenter
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 Fish Released (millions)
Wes
tCS
p
Will
RS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Snk
Sp
Snk
Fa
UC
RS
uFa
Release size of yearling Chinook salmon varies 2-foldby stock
2006 - 2011
Mean (g)
*6 major stocks of Chinook salmon with yearling migrants5 are listed under the Endangered Species Act
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Wes
tCS
p
Will
RS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Snk
Sp
Snk
Fa
UC
RS
uFa
Wes
tCS
p
Will
RS
p
MU
CR
Sp
Snk
Sp
Snk
Fa
UC
RS
uFa
JuneMay
wei
ght (
g)
wei
ght (
g)
Weight of fish caught in the ocean varies > 2-fold by stock
2006-2011
Is there a potential for biased individual competition between fish fromdifferent stocks based on hatchery release size?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 27
Abundance x Weight = biomass
CPUE
Weight
Biomass ~ bioenergetic “load”on ecosystem
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 28
Willamette Sp
W Cascade Sp
Snake Sp
Mid&Up Col Sp
Upper Col Su/Fa
Snake Fa
MAY
JUNE
2010
2011
2009
2008
2007
2006
2010
2011
2009
2008
2007
2006
Biomass (abundance x weight) varies by stock, month and year
Ocean entry year
Is there a potential for interactions between different stocks based on ocean biomass?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 29
Different stocks have different values:Legal
EconomicCultural
Recreational
Low survival year
High survival year
biomass
Density dependence: California Current“bottom up” ?
~ constant hatchery production
Varying prey base
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 31
1. Do growth & survival vary? Correlated?2. Do larger fish grow faster than smaller fish?3. Do smolts from hatchery stocks vary in size?4. Some data on biomass5. Implications of the present state of the NCC6. Summary
Outline
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 32
year
1900
2015
month
A century of the PDO
California sardine fishery collapses (early 40’s)
Snake River coho extinct
Multiple ESA listings West Coast Salmonids
Record returns Col R Chinook & Sockeye
Dec 14, Jan/Feb 15 – most positive PDO for those months in the record
76/77 regime shift
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 33
What’s happening now (2015)?
Carrying capacity may be significantly reduced
Density dependent processes may be magnified
Size-biased interactions intensify (stock, hatchery vs wild)?
Survival is likely to be low?
NWFSC - 4 day May survey (1st May survey since 2012)- 10 day June survey- AFSC survey in Gulf of Alaska (July)
A natural experiment is occurring: how do we take advantage?
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 34
Growth and survival vary- Correlated in many years
Data suggest it might be worth thinking about density dependence (in some years)
Many management, political and scientific issues to consider along with density dependence
Summary
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 35
Acknowledgements
Physiology group NWFSCDeb Harstad
Kathy CooperDina Spangenberg
Dave MetzgerDon Larsen
Meredith JourneyPenny Swanson
Walt Dickhoff
Captains & CrewF/V Frosti
Ocean Salmon Ecology group NOAA NWFSC
Suz HintonCindy BucherBill PetersonBob EmmettPaul Bentley
Kym JacobsonJoe Fisher
Laurie Weitkamp