730 ACRES OF VACANT LAND - LoopNet · 2017. 11. 3. · 730 ACRES OF VACANT LAND Available for Residential Development Located in Southern Utah THE PROPERTY 730 acres of vacant land

730 ACRES OF VACANTLAND

Available for Residential Development

Located in Southern Utah

THE PROPERTY 730 acres of vacant land located in the City of St. George, Utah. The

Property is master planned for residential development, including low, medium & high density,

and a small amount of commercial development. The current owners have been working

closely with the City for the last several years in order to create a Development Agreement that

will mitigate developer fees & costs and at the same time benefit the City in its efforts to create

desirable place to live that will also provide public uses, easy access & flow and utility of the

development.

Rosenberg & Associates is the primary engineer for the property and has completed preliminary

cost estimates for the infrastructure of the entire Property.

Mark Schnippel (702) 304-1947 ext.1 or (702) 592-3364

Investor’s Realty Group

8367 W Flamingo, Suite 100

Las Vegas, Nevada

The information in this package is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Any potential purchaser should verify all pertinent information duringtheir due diligence of the Property. At least five partners of the ownership entity are Nevada Real Estate Licensee’s.This offering is subject to prior sale, price change or market withdrawal.

SITE FACTSLOCATION: West (Green Valley area) St. George, west & adjacent to the Sunbrook

Golf Course.

SIZE: 730 acres gross.

PARCEL NUMBERS: Washington County Assessor SG-6-2-27-330, SG-6-2-27-3311, SG-6-228-

2110, SG-6-2-35-3002, SG-6-2-34-411, SG-6-2-34-412, SG-6-2-341004,

SG-6-2-34-1003, SG-6-2-34-1008, SG-6-2-34-241, SG-6-2-27-428, SG-6-

2-27-236, SG-6-2-34-1016, SG-6-2-34-1013

ZONING: The Property is part of a City approved Master Plan to allow up to 3,196

residential units which includes low, medium & high density and a small

amount set aside for commercial development to serve the development

and surrounding area. While densities are approved, each development

pod must apply to the City for design & review approval. Currently the

owner of this property is not bound by the Master plan, and could develop

the property under its current and fixed underlying zoning which allows

for up to 4 units per acre. (See Attached Development Summary)

INFRASTRUCTURE: All utilities are adjacent and are available to the site with capacity to serve

the entire development.

TOPOGRAPHY: Undulating. The property has many natural features which the proposed

layout of the Property has utilized. Almost all locations of the Property

provide views of the natural terrain and undeveloped BLM land which is

the Property’s westerly border.

ANNUAL TAXES: $109,172.26

ASSESSMENTS: None

TITLE REPORT: Available with offer

PRICE: $55,000,000.00

TERMS: Owner will finance with $15,000,000 down payment; interest rate,payment

schedule and term of loannegotiable.Will consider aJointVenture with

establishedhome builderor equitydevelopmentpartner.

Arial Property View

ABOUT ST. GEORGE, UTAH

St. George is a city located in the southwest part of the U.S. state of Utah, and the county seat of WashingtonCounty, Utah. It is the principal city of and is included in the St George; Utah Metropolitan Statistical Area. Thecity is 119 miles (192 km) northeast of Las Vegas, Nevada, and. 303 miles (48S km) south of Salt Lake City onInterstate 15.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, St George had a population of 82,318 in 2016. The most recent U.S.Census has St George is the fifth fastest-growing metropolitan area in the U.S. In 2015, the metropolitan area(defined as Washington County) had an estimated 155,600 residents.

St. George is the population and commercial center of Utah's Dixie, a nickname given to the area

when Mormon pioneers grew cotton in the warm climate. St. George's trademark is its geology

— red bluffs make up the northern part of the city with two peaks covered in lava rock in the

city's center. The northeastern edges of the Mojave Desert are visible to the south. Zion National

Park can be seen to the east, and the Pine Valley Mountains loom over the city to the north and

northwest. The climate has more in common with the Desert Southwest than the rest of the state,

with scorching hot summers and mild, mostly snowless winters. The city has recently

developed into a major retirement destination.

Economy

Along with its increasing population, the economy of St. George and surrounding areas hasrecovered this past two years.

One of St. George's most significant corporations is SkyWest Airlines, which has its corporateheadquarters in St. George. Wal-Mart has a large distribution center located near St. George,along with Intermountain Health Care a $100 million, 196 Bed, 420,000-square-foot hospital.On May 23, 2013 the New 108 Bed Veterans Home was opened. In July 2013 Family DollarStores opened its new 832,000 square foot distribution center.

A large part of the economy of southwestern Utah comes from tourism. St. George is inproximity to Zion National Park and Bryce Canyon National Park, as well as several state parksand recreational areas. It is a little less than an hour drive from the Tony award winning UtahShakespearean Festival. Golf also plays a large part in the city's tourism industry. St. Georgeoffers one of the highest number of golf courses per capita in the country. Special events such asthe St. George Marathon and the Huntsman Senior Games draw thousands to St. George eachyear (Part of the Huntsman Senior Games take place on the subject Property). The St. GeorgeMarathon is currently the 13th largest marathon in the country.

Transportation

The city is on the Interstate 15 corridor, 125 miles (201 km) south of the western terminus ofInterstate 70. It has access to the Interstate 10 and Interstate 40 corridors via U.S. Route 93,120 miles (190 km) southwest.

St. George does not have access to any rail service. The Union Pacific line between Salt LakeCity and Las Vegas is about 60 miles (97 km) north of the city. Community growth has led toconstruction of a new regional airport, as well as a beltway through the much of the urban area.The new airport replaced the St. George Municipal Airport, which was insufficient and had nocapacity for expansion or accommodation of larger aircraft. The $175 million plans airportincludes a single runway capable of accommodating regional jets as well as other largercommercial jet aircraft. The airport was opened 2011.

Washington County has experienced steady to rapid growth over the past 20 years. The growth

has created the demand for housing and commercial services. Demand for all property type is

moderate to strong. The economic base of the area is expected to continue to grow due to the

expansion of Dixie College, the net in-migration of baby boomers and the climate in the area.

• The unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in May, the lowest since before the

Great

Recession hit in late 2008.

• There were 600 new construction, and 900 new retail jobs created this past 12

months.

• There were 3,000 nonfarm jobs added in June 2017. The Total number of people has

reached 63,800, which is a +4.9% growth rate.

• The average sale price in the county for single-family homes was $347,800 in the 2nd

quarter of 2017, a 4% percent increase from 2016.

• The total number of homes sold through August 2017 was 4,567, a 12.79 percent

increase over 2016.

• There were 1,251 building permits issued for single-family homes in St. George

through August 2017, up from 928 in August 2016.

Despite pressures of the health care overhaul, the government shutdown, turmoil in the

Middle East and various other outside influences, the Washington County economy kept

humming along in 2016, buoyed by the enthusiastic return of the construction industry, an

influx of new commercial ventures and an improving job market.

Utah is recovering faster than other states and starting to attract immigrants again.

Utah’s Population: 2016 – 3,051,217 2010 – 2,763,888 10.4% increase

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City. The approved Master Plan includes multiple land uses segmented into specific Planning Areas ranging from low density single family developments, between 4 and 8 units per acre to high density multi-family developments at up to 15 units per acre and a commercial mixed use component situated within The Lakes Master Planned Community to provide convenient commercial retail within walking distance. The City has agreed to allow for the legal formation of Planning Areas, through the Minor Subdivision Process outlined in Utah State Statute, that are intended to provide individual builders with the opportunity to process the necessary project entitlements that are consistent with the City’s General Plan and create a conforming land use approval consistent with the Master Plan entitled through the Development Agreement.

Land Use Master Plan

The Lakes at St. George St. George 730 LLC

October 25, 2017

8367 West Flamingo Road, Suite 100 Tel: (702) 232-5799

Las Vegas, NV 89147 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

The Lakes at St. George –Development Status Summary

The following is a brief summary of the development status as it relates to Entitlements,

Developer obligations and work remaining.

Entitlements

1. General Plan Amendment: COMPLETE

• Approval Status:

➢ Approved by City Council, October 5, 2006’ creating mixed land use.

➢ Property is currently zoned R1-10.

• Developer Obligations:

➢ Conforming Zone change approval required for Medium and High

Density zoning in accordance with the General Plan

• Work Remaining: NONE

2. Development Agreement: COMPLETE


➢ Approved by City Council on January 9, 2014

➢ Hillside development restrictions addressed.

➢ Density Cap of 3,196 units approved

➢ Aggregated Open Space approved

➢ Parks Concept Plans approved

➢ Record of Survey (ROS) approved

3. Water Agreement: COMPLETE


➢ Approved

➢ Provides for $391,421 credit value to Developer for water infrastructure

fees.


➢ Convey Deed Title to Water Rights – Complete

• City Obligations:

➢ Credit Value Certificate for $391,431.20 - received.

➢ Credit to be used to offset City reclaimed water impact fees, charges or

assessments.

• Work Remaining:

➢ None.

4. Power Agreement: COMPLETE


➢ Approved


➢ Developer payment of $250,000 for future power distribution system –

Plantations Dr. North of Aliente Dr. - Complete


October 25, 2017



➢ Developer to provide Substation Warrantee Deeds for north and south

substation sites – Complete.

➢ Grant Power Easement to City – Complete

➢ Provide temporary access to Substations Sites – Complete.

• City Obligations:

➢ Remove Existing Substation from PA 3 – Complete

➢ Remove Existing Overhead Power on PA-3. – Pending installation of

underground power service in Phase 2

➢ Remove Overhead Power on Plantations Dr. South of Aliente Dr. –

Complete

➢ Convey Deed Title for Existing Substation to Developer- Complete

➢ Vacate Existing Power Easement- Complete

➢ Construct Masonry Screen Wall in conformance with Master Plan Wall

Standards along property line adjacent to the Development.- Future

• Work Remaining:

➢ City to re-convey north substation site once alternate site is obtained.

➢ City to Construct Masonry Screen Wall in conformance with Master Plan

Wall Standards along property line adjacent to the Development.

➢ City to remove existing “old” wooden power transmission poles on PA-3

5. Zoning Action


➢ R1-10 Zoning with mixed use Master Plan overlay- approved.


➢ Zone Change Action required for all remaining PA’s other than R1-10

zone Planning Areas.

• Work Remaining:

➢ Zone Change applications prior to Platt approvals for remaining PA’s

other than R1-10

6. Mapping: Record Of Survey (ROS)


➢ ROS #1 –Approved.


➢ Public Right of Way Dedications for Plantations Dr., Lago Vista – Phase

1 and Aliente Dr.- Approved

• Work Remaining:

➢ Record ROS #1 and associated Public Street ROW’s dedications -

Complete

➢ ROS#2- Submit for approval.

➢ ROS #3 – Submit for approval.

➢ Secondary Developers (Builders) to file subdivision plats.

➢ PA-14 & PA-16- Platting for Finished Lot sales – Pending City approval

Engineering

1. Master Utility Plan: Phase 1 - COMPLETE

• Approvals: None Required – Supports detailed Design approvals

• Developer Obligations: None

• Work Remaining: None


October 25, 2017



➢ Off-site Reclaimed Water Pipeline Design.

➢ Phase 2 & 3 Off-Site Sewer extension

2. Master Conceptual Hydrology Study: COMPLETE

• Approvals: None required – Supports detailed Design approvals

• Developer Obligations: None

• Work Remaining: None

3. Master Traffic Impact Study: COMPLETE


➢ Approved

➢ Phase 1 Traffic Study Update – Approved


➢ Traffic Mitigation Measures as outlined in the City Traffic Engineers

letter dated September 26, 2006 and as modified in the Development

Agreement.

• Work Remaining:

➢ Traffic Study for each PA for Zone Change approval(s).

➢ Amend Study as required by City when needed to support PA Zoning

Action(s).

➢ Engineers cost estimate for Master Traffic Study Mitigation Measures.

4. Conceptual Master Grading Plan: PHASE 1 COMPLETE


➢ Phases 1 Mass Grading Plan – Approved

➢ Geotechnical study - Complete

• Work Remaining:

➢ Phase 2 & 3 as needed

5. Conceptual PA Density Studies: COMPLETE


➢ None required – Supports overall PA density and marketing

• Work Remaining:

➢ None

6. Infrastructure Engineering: PHASE 1 COMPLETE


➢ Plantations Dr. Phase I Design- Complete pending JUC approval

➢ Lago Vista Dr. Phase I Design –Complete pending JUC approval

➢ Sentiere Dr. Design - Complete pending JUC approval


➢ Design and Construct Public Street & Utility Improvements as needed to

support the development.

• Work Remaining:

➢ Phase 2 & 3 Design approval

7. PA-14 Finished Lot Development


➢ Hillside Review – Approved


October 25, 2017



• Work remaining:

➢ Preliminary Plat Submittal and approval – Pending

City review & approval

➢ Final Plat approval.

8. PA-16 Finished Lot Development


➢ Hillside Review – Approved

➢ Preliminary Plat Submittal and approval – Pending

➢ City review & approval

➢ Final Plat approval

9. PA-15 Finished Lot Development – Grading only.


➢ Hillside Review – Approved.

• Work remaining:

➢ Preliminary Plat Submittal and approval

City Council approved – Grading only

➢ Final Plat Submittal approval

Construction Status

1. Off-site Infrastructure:

• Water reservoir and service are complete and funded through City SID.

• Sanitary Sewer to serve Phase 1complete and funded through City SID.

• Power – Overhead transmission facility and south substation complete.

• Roads – Plantations Dr. Phase 1 - Complete at Sun Brook.

Legal

1. Builder Land Purchase Agreement

• Master Agreement - Complete

• PA-14 – S&S Homes

➢ S&S Homes LOI – Executed

➢ Finished Lot Purchase Agreement – Complete pending final engineering.

• PA-16 – Ence Homes

➢ Ence Homes LOI – Executed

➢ Finished Lot Purchase Agreement – Complete pending final engineering.

2. Development Declarations

• Complete

3. Master Plan CC&R’s

• Complete

Marketing & Advertising 1. Marketing Analysis & Absorption Study Update– Complete

Architectural 1. Project Architectural Theme -Establishing parks and open space, and community entry

conceptual designs. – COMPLETE

2. Architectural Design Guidelines – Incomplete

3. Parks & Open Space- Concept plans complete and approved by City Parks & Leisure.

Land Use Density

General Plan Approved Residential Units Unit/Ac % Units

Low Density (182.5 Acres) 638 3.50 20.0% Medium Density (229.3 Acres) 1705 7.44 53.3% High Density (50 Acres) 579 12.33 18.1% Commercial/ Mixed Use(27.5 Acres) 274 10 6.0% Open Space (204.5 Acres) Roads (39.9 Acres) Totals (730.7 Acres) 3196

Avg. Gross Density 4.37

Parks & Open Space –

These uses together with over 200 acres of hiking trails through natural canyons and a 20 acre community park, make The Lakes at St. George and ideal community master planned to meet the needs of its residents. Each Builder will have unique development opportunities by taking advantage of the aggregated Open Space within the Master Plan through and Open Space Bank concept that permits individual builders to maximize use of the developable property and its associated land use without dedication of additional acreage for open space within the specific Planning Areas.

The Property’s natural canyons and slopes have been protected in the approved Master Plan for future dedication to the City as Open space, Community Parks and Trails, and access to BLM land for hiking and climbing. By doing so, the Developers have mitigated virtually all slope protection through advance review and approvals by the City’s Hillside Ordinance Review Committee. This has resulted in the creation of Planning Areas essentially free from Hillside Ordinance slope mitigation, freeing up the individual builders to develop each Planning Area in accordance with the designated land uses.

Individual Builders may be exempt from paying the City Parks and Trail Impact fees required for residential development and will enjoy the market advantage of being a part of Lakes Master Plan and its public and private Community Parks and Trails system. The Developer , together with the City, will plan, design and construct all Master Plan parks and trails on pace with the

residential development within the Master Plan to ensure future residents can take immediate advantage and use of all Master Planned amenities.

Park & Open Space Plan

Road & Utility Infrastructure -

The Development of all principle minor and major collector and arterial roadways will be the responsibility of the Developer. This, together with all off-site traffic mitigation measures, frees up individual builders from the pitfalls of any unknown or unforeseen hidden development costs and ensures all Planning Areas will have the required finished access improvements to for uninterrupted marketing and sales accessibility. All Master Plan roads and utilities have received design approval from the City supporting the right of way dedications and securing access and future service throughout the Lakes Master Plan.

Hydrology and drainage considerations have been addressed by the Developer to reduce if not eliminate any on-site drainage retention areas within the Builder Planning areas. By taking advantage of the aggregated open space and utilizing lakes and water features for storm drainage retention and discharging into existing natural washes, the Developer has accounted for all developed drainage flows from the Builder Planning Areas.

Marketing & Sales –

In 2008, the Robert Charles Lessor Company (RCLco) completed a Marketing Analysis and Absorption Study to ensure all builders within the Lakes Master Plan are competitively positioned to take advantage of the Lakes Master Plan Absorption Model. RCLco has evaluated the Lakes Master Plan accounting for the natural beauty of the site, distant views and planned amenities’ and given the property an A- rating and concluding: “The Lakes at St. George is an ideal site for the development of a primary-home community, and is additionally well suited to serve as a value-oriented alternative to higher-end second home development MPCs in St. George. While a number of upscale golf communities have been developed in and around St. George in recent years, there is a market void for well executed MPC’s targeting primary residents of St. George. The Site’s adjacency to protected BLM land, in conjunction with a program of open space and view lakes, will create an open space and outdoor recreation-focused MPC that competes successfully for both primary and second home market segments.”

RCLco identified the following project strengths through is extensive research and comparison of the Lakes at St. George with other MPC’s in the area:

1. Convenient in-town regional location relative to recent planned MPC’s 2. Large, contiguous parcel with gently rolling topography and natural landforms 3. Attractive panoramic views from elevated western portions of the site 4. Good elementary school and new intermediate school

Through an exclusive Absorption Model and Optimization Analysis, RCLco has created a financial development program through the development of product type and price point matrix for each Planning Area to ensure all Builders at the Lakes at St. George Master Plan are positioned to take advantage of the Master Plan Absorption Model.

A more recent market study by Team Power Marketing was completed to identify perceived barriers that have prevented national builders from entering the St. George Market and provide current homebuyer demographic analysis and market research to overcome these barriers.

Prior barriers to national builder entry into St. George Market:

1. No Commercial Airport – St George now has a regional airport with commercial airline connecting services.

2. No large tracts of land – If you are a large high production builder going into a small city you need land out in front along with good growth potential. It just doesn’t make sense to set up shop, hire good subs only to have to leave the market after a single model group is sold. The Lakes property provides for a future inventory of land.

3. Local politics hamper the entitlement process - With a politically tight entitlementprocess and with most developed lots being metered out by a small few developers it’stough to get started here. The Lakes Master Plan is fully entitled and ready fordevelopment.

4. Sales volumes- The sales to local families made up a higher percentage of new home salesyears 10 years ago. Today that number might be 20 to 30% of total sales. There is a healthyratio in the number of homes sold here for its population. The population is growing as isthe employment rate. My interviews with agents in the top selling new home builder officesrevealed that 65% to 95% of the buyers were not locals.

5. Unknown Market- The traffic flow to the St. George area was not nearly as capable ofsustaining an MP like the Lakes as it is now. St George was not always as well-known atourist destination as it has become in the most recent years. The State Tourism Dept.started spending millions more dollars in major western cities (including Las Vegas thisyear).

Why “The Lakes”? Why now?

1. Location- “The Lakes” Master Plan was a choice back when I evaluated St George before.Many of St George’s most scenic areas including rolling terrain, and highest valuedproperties are on the west side of I-15. The MPs with the highest number of second homeand retirement buyers are located west of I-15. Access to the “The Lakes” is within minutesof from I-15 is approximately a 5 minutes from Snow Canyon the most popular state park inSouthern Utah. One of Utah’s best public golf courses is wrapped by the mature SunbrookMaster Plan which is contiguous to “The Lakes” property. There is very little of “St George”(within city limits) land left to develop. The bordering townships for the most part arevirtually unknown “by name” outside of Utah. St. George is the strongest brand name townor city in Southern Utah.

2. Property Entitlements - The major hurdles to develop “The Lakes” are cleared. These 730acres are entitled with water committed. A number of major builders can build hereassuredly for at least five to seven years as 3196 residences are approved to be built hereunder the city’s general plan.

“The Lakes” Product Segmentation and Absorption: Three market segments dominate new

home sales

1. Second Home Buyers - The current sales statistics on new product sold in the St Georgemarket do not reflect the large segment of buyers who would rather purchase a more

exciting Master Plan Community. The master plan communities in place that feature a golfcourse and target the 50 plus market dominate the west side of St George. Sun River,Bloomington, and Sunbrook to name a few are over 10 years old and almost totally ignorethe younger 20s to late 40s market. These age groups target vacation communities that arenot “retiree” golf centered community and want a more active biking and hiking centeredlife style.

2. Active Adult – There is a large influx of retires from northern Utah and California whodon’t necessarily want to live on or play on a golf course. They want to hike, fish or justrelax near an active stream. St George as an ideal “home plate” for retires to takeadvantage of nearby Color Country.

3. First time and move up Home Buyers – More affluent local young couples and singles don’tnecessarily want to live in the heart of a traditional “baby carriage” neighborhood anddesire to live in a community with canyons and trails for hiking, climbing and biking.

Community Theme – The Projects community theme concept takes advantage of the natural

trails and canyons as undisturbed open space linked to neighborhood and community parks

that provide active and passive uses anchored by lakes and interconnecting streams. Each

Planning Area has been carefully positioned to provide access to all the projects passive and

active open space.

Southern UtahGood News Housing ReportWashington County Utah

“Doing good Deeds for over 60 years”

SEPTEMBER

139

154

206

221

198

158161 162

140

101

145

181

157

137152

143151

158

130

172 175

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

LOT SALES BY MONTH

2017 1,539

2016 1,802

1,5

391,8

02

1,5

21

1,4

08

1,6

52

1,1

00

65

0

548

469633

Pro

jecte

d, 2

,05

2

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008

LOT SALES BY YEAR

117103

169 172

156

207

134

193

133

99

143

126 121

136 137 137

166

141135

146

111


PERMITS BY MONTH

2017 1,384

2016 1,598

1,3

841,5

98

1,5

37

1,2

991,5

68

1,1

56

717

70

1

47

458

1

Pro

jecte

d, 1

,84

5

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008

PERMITS BY YEAR

79

121

145

116

146 146

129

154

10278 81

131 128116 120

107

127114

102112

134


NEW DWELLINGS BY MONTH

2017 1,138

2016 1,350

79

121 145 116 146 146 129154

102

399

456

663

538

657 661

584

609

492


NEW V. TOTAL DWELLINGS

NEW DWELLINGS 1,138

TOTAL DWELLINGS 5,059

20%

22% 22%22%

25%

21%27% 22%

22%

399

456

663

538

657 661

584609

492

349369

549

511

558610

519 584 503482 489

540


DWELLINGS BY MONTH

2017 5,059

2016 6,063

5,0

596,0

63

5,4

94

4,8

99

5,0

34

3,9

70

3,8

99

3,6

52

3,2

77

2,8

56

Pro

jecte

d, 6,7

45

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008

DWELLINGS BY YEAR

123 123

225

130

50

240

134

103

29

11454

151

111

92

250

107

137

79 64

151

92


PLATTED LOTS BY MONTH

2017 1,157

2016 1,402

583

642

907

793

885865

763

827

658

492

539

771713 726

793

690

767

689

643

689

747


ALL SALES BY MONTH

2017 6,923

2016 8,259

6,9

238

,25

9

7,2

74

6,5

01

6,9

64

5,3

35

4,7

34

4,3

81

3,9

08

3,7

58

Pro

jecte

d, 9

,23

0

2017201620152014201320122011201020092008

ALL SALES BY YEAR

492

140

16 10

503

158

217

DWELLINGS LOTS ACREAGE COMMERCIAL

ALL PRODUCT BY MONTH 2017 vs. 2016

2017 658

2016 689

5,059

1,539

190 135

4,552

1,325

190 113

Dwellings Lots Acreage Commercial

ALL PRODUCT BY YEAR 2017 V. 2016

2017 6,923

2016 6,180

333

1,035

379

350

1,123

394

296

555

310

1,210

902

332

808

248

328

1,013

365

211

518

279

1,087

899

BLOOMINGTON CC

BLOOMINGTON HILLS

EAST COUNTY

EAST ST. GEORGE

HURRICANE

IVINS

SANTA CLARA

ST. GEORGE VALLEY

U-18

WASHINGTON CITY

WEST ST. GEORGE

ALL AREAS BY YEAR

2016

2017

60

15

25

15

21

1814 15

1922 22

33

18

26

19

13

2629

2125

17


NOTICES OF DEFAULT

2017 202

2016 271

*HOA liens

79

1511

58

42

5 4

12

19

10

11

97 7

15

107 8 8


TRUSTEE DEEDS

2017 106

2016 123

Page 1

ST. GEORGE / MESQUITE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Third Quarter 2017

Figure 1: St. George MSA Job Growth and Total Employment

Figure 2: St. George MSA Unemployment Trend

Figure 3: St. George MSA Job Growth by Sector

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Nationally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a drop of -33,000 jobs in September, primarily in the retail services sectors such as food, beverage etc. This was the first loss experienced in seven years. The primary driver of these job losses were a result of hurricane’s Irma and Harvey, therefore the loss should be fairly short lived and are expected to bounce back in the coming months.

Job growth in the St. George market remains healthy and is not expected to see any major changes in the near future. According to the most recent figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the St. George CBSA has added a total of 3,000 new jobs over the past twelve months ending August 2017. While this total is down from 4,200 jobs that were created as of August 2016 (annually), the local economy remains steady and has actually gained a little momentum the last couple months. With the demographic make-up of the St. George market, local employers are finding it difficult to fill open positions with qualified employees, specifically those that require a higher education. This is making it difficult for many companies to expand operations. The majority of new job growth is occurring in the travel and retail sectors which are being filled by college students and those with lower education, and thus resulting in lower wages. The total number of people employed in the St. George CBSA has increased +4.9% compared to last year for a total of 64,600.

Despite the slight increase in the unemployment rate since the first of the year, it remains below the national rate of 4.2% and also below what is considered to be “fully employed” (at 4.5%). As of August 2017, the unemployment rate is 3.7%, up from 3.5% last year.

While not every sector has experienced a net increase in jobs as of August, none of the sectors are losing jobs, which is a positive sign. The market is currently being led by Retail Trade jobs, which has created 800 jobs over the past year, up 100 jobs from last year at this time. Construction, Nat. Resources & Mining is the next largest sector with the addition of 600 jobs, down from 800 last year. The Leisure & Hospitality Services sector is growing with the addition of 500 jobs, up from 200 recorded last year. Despite fewer jobs in most of the remaining sectors compared to last year, the market continues to create jobs in many different sectors, creating a more diversified economy, which is a healthy trend.

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

62,000

64,000

66,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Annual Non-Farm Jobs Total Employed (Non-Farm)

EmployedJobs

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

Civilian Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

3.7%

4.2%

CONSTNAT RESMINING

MANUFWHSLTrade

RetailTrade

TRANS &Utilities

INFO FIREBusinessServices

EDHealth

Services

Leisure& Hosp.Services

OtherServices

FederalGovt

StateGovt

LocalGovt

Aug-16 800 200 200 700 500 100 0 400 700 200 0 0 100 300

Aug-17 600 100 0 800 200 0 100 100 300 500 100 0 100 100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Aug-16 Aug-17

St. George / Mesquite Executive Summary

Page 2

Third Quarter 2017

Figure 4: Annual New Home Starts & Closings – Att/Det

Figure 5: St. George Market Area Annual Starts by Price Range – Att/Det

Figure 6: St. George New Home Inventory – Att/Det

HOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW While new home starts cooled off slightly during the third quarter, the market remains healthy. According to Metrostudy’s quarterly lot-by-lot survey, builders in the St. George market started 478 new homes during the third quarter of 2017, which is +5% higher than 3Q16, however decreased -13% from last quarter. New home closings for the quarter decreased -5% compared to 3Q16 for a total of 409. Annual starts are up +5% compared to 3Q16 for a total of 1,793, the highest level since prior to the recession. Annual closings reached 1,723 as of September, which is a +13% increase compared to last year at this time. There were 407 single-family detached homes started during the 3rd quarter, an -18% decrease from last quarter and unchanged compared to 3Q16. Annual starts are up +8% compared to last year for a total of 1,601. Annual new home closings totaled 1,548, which is a +19% increase over last year. Annual new homes starts for attached homes/units decreased -14% compared to last year to 192, and closings decreased -22% for a total of 175. The Mesquite market area started 91 new homes during the 3rd quarter of 2017 which is up +117% from the 42 recorded during 3Q16, and up from 69 recorded last quarter. Annual new home starts totaled 332 as of September which is up +29% compared to last year. Quarterly closings totaled 74 during 3Q17, up +14% from the 65 closings in 3Q16 and increased +25% from last quarter. Annual closings totaled 256, which is a +2% increase compared to the pace last year at this time. New home starts from $400,000-$600,000 are increasing faster than any other price segment in the market, up +26% compared to last year at this time and now account for 17% of total market share. Builders continue to find it difficult to produce homes under $250,000 as material and labor costs rise. Production in this segment has decreased -14% compared to last year at this time and is also 17% market share, however decreasing. The median price for a new detached home in the St. George market is now $348,200, which has increased +4% from last year, however decreased -.5% from last quarter. Due to the increased starts pace of attached homes, the median price for a new attached home/unit increased +28% over last year and up +3% from last quarter to $236,500. The median new home price in Mesquite is currently $263,500 which is up +10% from last year and +1% above last quarter.

NEW HOME INVENTORY As production rises, we expect to see inventory

MOS

1,793

332

1,723

2560

200

400600

8001,000

1,2001,400

1,6001,800

2,0002,200

2,400

3Q051Q06

3Q061Q07

3Q071Q08

3Q081Q09

3Q091Q10

3Q101Q11

3Q111Q12

3Q121Q13

3Q131Q14

3Q141Q15

3Q151Q16

3Q161Q17

3Q17

St. George Starts Mesquite StartsSt. George Closings Mesquite Closings

0

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3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17

1.2

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0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,300

3Q051Q06

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3Q170.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.0

Under Construction Finished Vacant FV MOS U/C MOS

St. George / Mesquite Executive Summary

Page 3

Third Quarter 2017

Figure 7: Mesquite New Home Inventory – Att/Det

Figure 8: St. George Vacant Developed Lot Inventory / MOS

Figure 9: Mesquite Vacant Developed Lot Inventory – Att/Det

increase as well. Currently, total new home inventory in the St. George market sits at 948, which is an +8% increase compared to 3Q16 and +8% above last quarter. At the current pace of absorption this translates to a 6.6 month supply, down from 6.9 months recorded last year at this time. Of this total, 741 homes are under construction, up +17% compared to last year and currently is a 5.2 month supply, well within equilibrium. However, finished vacant inventory has decreased -21% compared to 3Q16 and -6% lower than last quarter, for a supply of 1.2 months. Single-family detached home inventory sits at 6.3 months with a low 1.2 month supply of finished vacant homes. Attached inventory is currently 8.8 months, with a low 1.1 month supply of finished vacant units. New detached inventory in Mesquite totaled 156, which increased +79% from last year and +11% from last quarter. This is currently a 7.4 month supply, up from 4.8 months recorded last year. However, finished vacant inventory is a low .5 months. Attached inventory sits at 203 homes/units, a 1,218.0 month supply, of which 193 are finished and vacant units.

LOT INVENTORY Annual lot deliveries in St. George have increased +42% compared to last year for a total of 1,875. However, despite the increase in deliveries there are specific segments within the market that are below equilibrium. There is currently a 33.8 month supply of detached single-family lots on the ground, down from 36.3 months recorded in 3Q16. However, lot inventory for homes priced from $200,000 to $400,000 is well within equilibrium at 20 months. Lot inventory for homes above $500,000 is a high 64.0 months. Vacant developed lot inventory in Mesquite decreased -8% from last year to a total of 1,335, which is a 48.3 month supply, down from 67.4 months in 3Q16.

CONCLUSIONS As we enter into the final stretch of the year, the St. George market is expected to have the strongest year on record since the recession, and is projected to remain steady for the near future. Builders will continue to deal with increasing prices; however lower priced entry-level product is needed in the market.

MOS

MOS

MOS

Metrostudy is the leading provider of primary and secondary market information to the housing and related industries nationwide. In addition to providing information, the company is recognized for its consulting expertise on development, marketing and economic issues, and is a key source of research studies evaluating the feasibility of residential and commercial real estate projects. Services are offered through an extensive network of offices strategically located in major metropolitan areas throughout the country.

Eric Allen, Regional Director – Utah/Idaho [email protected]

9069 S. 1300 W. Ste. B. – W. Jordan, Utah 84088 801.571.7700 x-5971

9.6

5.9

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

3Q051Q06

3Q061Q07

3Q071Q08

3Q081Q09

3Q091Q10

3Q101Q11

3Q111Q12

3Q121Q13

3Q131Q14

3Q141Q15

3Q151Q16

3Q161Q17

3Q170.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

21.0

24.0

27.0

Under Construction Finished Vacant FV MOS U/C MOS

4,512

344

33.8

21.55001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000

1Q063Q06

1Q073Q07

1Q083Q08

1Q093Q09

1Q103Q10

1Q113Q11

1Q123Q12

1Q133Q13

1Q143Q14

1Q153Q15

1Q163Q16

1Q173Q17

0.024.048.072.096.0120.0144.0168.0192.0216.0240.0264.0288.0312.0

Detached AttachedDet MOS Att MOS

1,181

154

43.9

205.3

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

3Q051Q063Q061Q073Q071Q083Q081Q093Q091Q103Q101Q113Q111Q123Q121Q133Q131Q143Q141Q153Q151Q163Q161Q173Q17

0.048.0

96.0144.0192.0

240.0288.0336.0

384.0432.0480.0

528.0576.0

Detached AttachedDet MOS Att MOS

July 2017

15© Copyright Metrostudy 2017

www.metrostudy.com

42,000

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62,000

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66,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

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6,000

Annual Non-Farm Jobs Total Employed (Non-Farm)

EmployedJobs

2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017

St. George CBSAEmployment Trend - Net Increase of 3,000 in last 12 months.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total Employed +4.9%

PAGE 29

www.metrostudy.com 2Q17 St. George-Mesquite Market | © Copyright Metrostudy 2017

St. George CBSAUnemployment Rate


PAGE 30

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

Civilian Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

3.3%

4.3%

July 2017



St. George CBSAEmployment by Sector – June 2016 vs. June 2017


PAGE 31

CONSTNAT RESMINING

MANUFWHSLTrade

RetailTrade

TRANS &Utilities

INFO FIREBusinessServices

EDHealth

Services

Leisure& Hosp.Services

OtherServices

FederalGovt

StateGovt

LocalGovt

Jun-16 800 100 200 700 400 200 0 400 1,000 300 0 0 100 -100

Jun-17 600 100 0 900 200 0 100 200 300 400 100 0 100 100

-200

-100

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St. George Market Area

New Home Activity2Q 2017

PAGE 32

July 2017


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Total Count Active Subdivisions 281 New Active-past year 29 projects Built Out-past year 7 projects

Furnished Model Homes 37 / 0.3 mos Finished Vacant Homes 182 / 1.3 mos Homes Under Construction 679 / 4.7 mos Vacant Developed Lots 4,840 / 32.5 mos Future Subdivisions 136 Future Lots 42,305 / 284.7 mos

St. George Market AreaAnnual New Home Starts & Closings – Att/Det

www.metrostudy.com

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2003,4003,600

2Q99

2Q00

2Q01

2Q02

2Q03

2Q04

2Q05

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2Q09

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2Q13

2Q14

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2Q16

2Q17

Annual Starts Annual Closings


St. George Market AreaAnnual New Home Starts & Closings – Att/Det

483

1,785

1,740

612

PAGE 34

vs 2Q16 1Q17Starts- +8% +4%Closings- +13% +3%

YTDA/S 958 +6%A/C 937 +25%

July 2017


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147 166

2

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eorg

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ite


St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts / Closings by City – 2Q14-2Q17 – Att/Det

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Percentage ChangeA +5%Q +2%

A -12%Q +3%

A -9%Q +1%

A +82%Q +10%

A +127%Q +211%

A +100%Q +100%

A +17%Q -4%


St. George Market Area% Change in Ann. Starts & Closings – Att/Det

PAGE 36

82%

-9%

17%

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127%

5%

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7%

126%

3%

17%

0%

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St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin Mesquite

Ann. Starts Ann. Closings

July 2017



St. George Market AreaTop Subdivisions Ranked by Annual Starts – Att/Det

PAGE 37

SubdivisionName/RankActiveQuarter City

LotSizeRange

AnnualStarts

Ann.Start%Change

2Q17QuarterStarts

AnnualClosings

2Q17QuarterClosings

FinishedVacant

UnderConst.

HomeInv.MOS

VDLInv

VDLMOS

FutureLots

1) DixieSprings 3Q06 Hurricane 9,775‐11,000 $175 ‐ $550 155 7% 29 156 32 26 44 5.5 701 54.3 02) SunRiverSt.George 1Q05 St.George 3,150‐8,000 $240 ‐ $490 96 10% 27 87 26 12 34 6.3 102 12.8 3713) HawthornEstates 4Q15 St.George 8,500‐10,450 $238 ‐ $346 48 100% 17 46 10 2 10 3.4 5 1.3 04) SiennaHills/Casitas 1Q15 Washington 1,625‐2,000 $250 ‐ $390 47 176% 17 32 7 1 20 8.3 45 11.5 245) DesertCanyons/DesertCrest 3Q15 St.George 7,350‐7,700 $230 ‐ $287 39 1200% 16 33 13 2 6 3.3 25 7.7 246) OakwoodEstates 2Q15 St.George 9,000‐10,000 $274 ‐ $639 37 19% 10 36 6 2 7 3.3 16 5.2 07) BlackhawkTownhomes 1Q17 SantaClara 1,350 $225 ‐ $230 36 360% 20 1 1 3 32 420.0 3 1.0 328) SugarPlum 3Q15 Washington 8,000‐9,200 $250 ‐ $316 35 46% 16 31 9 7 6 5.4 18 6.2 1459) Riverstone 4Q13 St.George 7,200‐8,800 $250 ‐ $574 34 3% 9 35 8 2 6 3.1 7 2.5 010) ParadiseVillageatZion 2Q14 SantaClara 2,925‐3,500 $336 ‐ $1,580 34 13% 8 25 5 0 23 11.0 24 8.5 011) TuscanyatCliffrose 3Q07 SantaClara 625 $160 ‐ $208 32 45% 0 54 8 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4012) BrioSF 3Q15 Washington 7,000‐8,800 $265 ‐ $438 32 ‐6% 13 40 7 2 11 6.6 36 13.5 43713) Fieldstone 1Q15 St.George 11,550 $400 ‐ $600 31 ‐9% 8 34 14 4 12 5.7 12 4.7 014) IvyWood 2Q12 Hurricane 4,750 $155 ‐ $330 28 ‐10% 7 37 11 1 8 2.9 9 3.9 015) DesertCanyons/DesertPlateau 3Q14 St.George 8,250‐12,500 $299 ‐ $460 26 37% 8 20 9 1 12 8.4 27 12.5 2916) DesertCanyons/DesertRidge 1Q16 St.George 5,950‐6,650 $223 ‐ $287 26 767% 14 15 6 0 14 11.2 13 6.0 017) MeadowValleyFarms 3Q12 St.George 18,000‐31,725 $400 ‐ $999 24 50% 4 22 9 2 10 6.6 32 16.0 018) SkyRidgeEstates 1Q05 Hurricane 8,500‐11,250 $206 ‐ $345 23 64% 6 25 8 0 6 2.9 0 0.0 1619) MillcreekSpringsTownhomes 1Q07 Washington 875 $143 ‐ $149 23 15% 0 23 3 0 4 2.1 34 17.7 020) DesertCanyons/DesertRim 3Q15 St.George 10,350‐12,000 $223 ‐ $283 22 340% 4 19 9 2 2 2.5 2 1.1 0

TOTALS/AVERAGES $140 ‐ $1,580 828 - 233 771 201 69 267 25.9 1,111 9.3 1,118

MarketShare 46% ‐ 42% 44% 42% 38% 39% ‐ 23% ‐ 3%

PriceRange

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050

100150200250300350400450500550600650

Qtr. Starts Qtr. Closings


St. George Market AreaQuarterly New Home Starts & Closings – Detached

PAGE 38

498

446


July 2017


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PAGE 39

1,603

1,557


443

1,977

534

1,955YTD

A/S 851 +11%A/C 820 +31%

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100110

$0-$199 $200-$249

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$1,000+

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Qtr. Closings


St. George Market AreaQuarterly Starts / Closings by Price Range – Detached

PAGE 40

7-30%

Qtr. Percent Change

50 +16%

106+6%

86+2.%

66+32%

72 +14% 67

+10%

30+100%

July 2017


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2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Ann. Closings


St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts / Closings by Price Range – Detached

PAGE 41

29-36%

Ann. Percent Change

157-15%

346+2%

266+20%

210+20%

241+4% 221

+31%

104+51%


St. George Market Area% Change in Ann. Starts & Closings by Price Range – Detached

PAGE 42

51%

20%

2%

31%

4%

20%

-36%

-15%

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48%

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30%

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Ann. Starts Ann. Closings

July 2017


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St. George Market AreaAnnual New Home Starts & Closings – Attached

PAGE 43

182

183

vs 2Q16 1Q17Starts- -10% -3%Closings- -25% -15%

YTDA/S 107 ‐22%A/C 117 ‐7%

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0102030405060708090

$0-$149 $150-$174

$175-$199

$200-$224

$225-$249

$250-$274

$275-$299

$300 +

2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Ann. Starts


St. George Market AreaAnnual Closings / Starts by Price Range – Attached

PAGE 44

39-51%

Ann. Percent Change

22+120%

37-3%

10-64%

3 -86% 6

-65%

15-29%

52+48%

July 2017


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St. George Market AreaMedian New Home Price – Att/Det

PAGE 45

Attached$226,600

+32% 2Q16+9% 1Q17

Detached$347,800

+4% 2Q16+.6% 1Q17

Med. Income$62,838

+27% 2010

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St. George Washington Hurricane Santa Clara Ivins La Verkin


St. George Market AreaMedian New Home Price by City – 2Q14-2Q17 Detached

PAGE 46

A +4%Q +3%

Med. Income$55,215

+16% 2010

A-4%Q -3%

Med. Income$55,832

+8% 2010

A +4%Q +1%

Med. Income$53,923

+10% 2010

A -24%Q +3%

Med. Income$70,551

+18% 2010

A +22%Q +5%

Med. Income$58,293

+22% 2010

A -58%Q +0%

$387,040

$324,500

$300,700

$413,300

$394,100

$242,900

Med. Income$49,382

+13% 2010

July 2017



St. George Market AreaNew, Resale & Foreclosure Transactions

PAGE 47

Source: Metrostudy / Property Analysis


St. George Market AreaResidential Mortgage / Cash Transactions

PAGE 48

0%

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500Percent Cash TransactionsCashMortgage

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July 2017



Top LendersRanked by # of Loans

PAGE 49

Source: Metrostudy / Property Analysis


St. George Market Area Top 20 Builders – Ranked by Annual Deed Closings – Att/Det

PAGE 50

Source: Metrostudy / CoreLogic - Deed

Builder

2Q17Annual Closings

Ann. % ChangeClosings

Avg. ClosingPrice

% Change

PriceSALISBURY HOMES 174 19% $291,241 -1%ENCE HOMES 113 -10% $312,088 6%SUN RIVER CONSTRUCTION 72 -29% $540,183 1%IVORY HOMES 49 4% $303,165 11%S & S CONSTRUCTION INC (UT) 49 -16% $429,638 17%JACK FISHER HOMES 44 -27% $363,582 -4%PERRY HOMES INC 43 34% $294,716 3%SULLIVAN HOMES UTAH 43 87% $362,615 -33%ROCK TITE CONSTRUCTION COMPANY 29 12% $354,770 3%J TIMO CONSTRUCTION 22 83% $242,708 3%COLE WEST HOMES 21 2100% N/A N/ASANTA CLARA DEV LLC 18 260% $254,335 34%GEMSTONE HOMES INC (UT) 17 55% $258,354 10%HIGH DESERT HOMES INC (UT) 16 33% $420,515 -25%BENZER DEV SOLUTIONS LLC 14 27% $219,352 10%BANGERTER HOMES OF SOUTHERN UTAH 13 -13% $346,498 17%CORAL CANYON BUILDERS LLC 13 -35% $271,694 -3%CLARY LLC 11 1100% N/A N/APREMIER DEVELOPMENT INC (UT) 11 -15% $363,556 -5%ESTANCIA PROJECT DEVELOPMENT LLC 10 -17% $331,026 13%

July 2017



St. George Market AreaBuyer Segmentation – Annual Resale Closings

PAGE 51

0%

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ent ry Level Feat ure & Lo cat io n Simp le Lif e

F amily Lif e Elit e A A Ent ry Level

A A F eat ure & Lo cat io n A A Elit e R ent ers


St. George Market AreaBuyer Segmentation – Annual New Home Closings

PAGE 52

0%

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ent ry Level F eat ure & Lo cat io n Simp le Lif e

F amily Lif e Eli t e A A Ent ry Level

A A F eat ure & Lo cat io n A A Elit e R ent ers

July 2017


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New Home Inventory2Q 2017

PAGE 53

www.metrostudy.com

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Months of Supply

Units of Inventory

Finished Vacant Under Construction Months of Supply


National Housing OverviewHousing Inv. & MOS by Market – Att/Det

PAGE 54

July 2017



St. George Market AreaNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached

PAGE 55

6.2

4.6

1.3

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,200

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0.01.02.0

3.04.05.06.0

7.08.09.010.0

11.012.0

Under Construction Finished Vacant MOS UC MOS F/V MOS

2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 597 +13% +13%F/V- 168 -12% -7%


St. George Market Area – by CityNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached

PAGE 56

1.2

4.94.4

4.2 4.1

8.2

4.5

12.0

0.50.01.5 0.91.21.2

020406080

100120140160180200220240260280

St. G

eorg

e

Washing

ton

Hurrica

neIv

ins

Santa

Clara

La Verk

in

Mesqu

ite0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.014.0

Under Construction Finishid Vacant Housing MOS UC MOS FV MOS

July 2017



St. George Market Area – St. George CityNew Home Inventory / Months of Supply – Detached

PAGE 57

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0.01.02.0

3.04.05.06.0

7.08.09.010.0

11.012.0


•12.7

2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 270 +9% +10%F/V- 76 -1% -23%

•5.8

•4.4

•1.2

www.metrostudy.com

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0.01.02.0

3.04.05.06.0

7.08.09.010.0

11.012.0



St. George Market Area – Washington CityNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached

PAGE 58

•6.4

•4.2

•1.5

2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 99 -4% +15%F/V- 36 -28% +90%

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

0102030405060708090

100110120130

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.0



St. George Market Area – Hurricane CityNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached

PAGE 59

•5.5

•4.1

•1.2

2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 109 -2% +3%F/V- 33 -11% -6%

•14.1 •23.6

www.metrostudy.com

020406080

100120140160180200220240

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0.02.04.0

6.08.010.012.0

14.016.018.020.0

22.024.0



St. George Market Area – MesquiteNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Detached

PAGE 60

•6.9

•4.9

•0.5

2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 100 +72% +11%F/V- 11 -35% -35%

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

0102030405060708090

100110

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +


St. George Market AreaUnder Construction Inv. by Price Range / MOS – Detached

PAGE 61

Ann. Percent Change

2Q15-2Q17

•2.6-33%

•2.9-15%

•3.0 -9%

•3.9 +13%

•4.8 +30% •4.8

+8%

•6.1 +14%

•10.3 +49%

www.metrostudy.com

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,500

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

Models Under Construction Finished Vacant FV % of Total Inv.


St. George Market AreaNew Home Inventory / FV % of Total Inv. – Detached

PAGE 62

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

109

5385

1

76

36

99

270

33

14

0

9

21%24% 23%

10%

0%

20%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Models Under Construction Finished Vacant FV % of Total Inv.


St. George Market AreaNew Home Inventory / FV % of Total Inv. – Detached

PAGE 63

www.metrostudy.com

446

430

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

Quarterly Closings Quarterly Completions


St. George Market AreaQuarterly Completions and Closings – Detached

PAGE 64

Annual Completions – 1,534Annual Closings – 1,557

Difference -23

July 2017



St. George Market AreaNew Home Completions by Home Price Range – Detached

PAGE 65

$800 +0%

$500-$79924%

$400-$49915%

$350-$3999%

$300-$34921%

$250-$29928%

$200-$2493%

$0-$1990%

www.metrostudy.com

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +


St. George Market AreaFinished Vacant Inv. by Price Range / MOS – Detached

PAGE 66

Ann. Percent Change

2Q15-2Q17

•1.0-57%

•0.7 -57%

•1.0 -32%

•1.2 -10%

•1.5 +0%

•1.7 -8% •1.6

+45%

•1.7+83%

July 2017



St. George Market Area – by CityFinished Vacant Inventory by Price – Detached

PAGE 67

0%

30% 32% 33%

40%

53%

62%

73%

33%30%

39%

30%

16%21%

7%

0%

25%

3%9%

18%16%

30%30%33%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +

St. George Washington Hurricane


St. George Market Area – by CityFinished Vacant MOS by Price – Detached

PAGE 68

0.6 0.70.9

1.6

2.5

1.6

0.4 0.5

1.3

1.61.5

1.7

1.3

0.0

1.7

1.4

0.0 0.0

1.0

1.9

1.2

1.7

1.3

12.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +


6.0

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

1.2

0.0

0.9

1.5

1.91.6

1.8

16.5

1.2

0.04.5

0.9

1.9

1.11.41.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50k0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.52Q16 F / V Inv. 2Q17 F / V Inv.2Q16 F / V M OS 2Q17 F / V M OS


St. George Market Area Finished Vacant Inv. / MOS by Lot Size – Detached

PAGE 69


St. George Market AreaNew Home Inv. / Months of Supply – Attached

PAGE 70

0255075

100125150175200225250275300

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0369121518212427303336


2Q17 2Q16 1Q17U/C- 82 -7% +21%F/V- 14 +40% +0%

•0.9

•5.4

•6.4

July 2017



St. George Market Area New Home Inventory / MOS by Price Range – Attached

PAGE 71

1.6

0.0

1.6

4.44.8

8.0

128.0

1.0

0.00.3

2.4

20.0

2.0

0.00.9

0.00369

1215182124273033

$0-$149 $150-$174

$175-$199

$200-$224

$225-$249

$250-$274

$275-$299

$300 +0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.022.0

Under Construction Finishid Vacant Housing MOS UC MOS FV MOS

www.metrostudy.com


Lot Inventory2Q 2017

PAGE 72

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Months of Supply

Units of Inventory

VDL Inventory Months of Supply


National Housing OverviewVacant Developed Lot Inv. & MOS by Market – Att/Det

PAGE 73

www.metrostudy.com

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

024

487296120

144168192216

240264

Starts VDL's MOS


Mesquite Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Detached

PAGE 74

1,271

•55.5

VDL’s MOS

vs. 2Q16 1Q17VDL’s- -4% +5% MOS- -17 m +4 m

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q19

2Q17

Annual Lot Deliveries

Annual Starts


St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Ann. Starts – Attached

PAGE 75

172 Ann. Lot Deliveries / -4% vs 2Q16182 Ann. Starts / -10% vs 2Q16

www.metrostudy.com

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0.0

24.0

48.0

72.0

96.0

120.0

144.0

168.0

192.0

216.0

Starts VDL's MOS


St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Attached

PAGE 76

MOSVDL’s

322

•21.2

vs. 2Q16 2Q17VDL’s- -3% -8%MOS- +1 m -1 m

•250.3•263.6

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

0

30

61

293028

76

34

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

$0-$149 $150-$174

$175-$199

$200-$224

$225-$249

$250-$274

$275-$299

$300 +


St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. by New Home Price / MOS – Attached / 2Q15-2Q17

PAGE 77

•12.4-44%

•2.6-100%

•30.0-22%

•13.9 -15%

•64.8 -35%

•49.5-25%

•29.1+93%

•20.8+259%

www.metrostudy.com

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

Annual Lot Deliveries

Annual Starts


St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Ann. Starts – Detached

PAGE 78

1,410 Ann. Lot Deliveries / +6% vs 2Q171,603 Ann. Starts / +10% vs 2Q17

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

309

80

62

1

74

0

127

020406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340

St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin Mesquite


St. George Market AreaQuarterly Lot Deliveries by City – Detached 2Q16-2Q17

PAGE 79

www.metrostudy.com

0%2%

22%

28%

6%

12%

8%

17%

10%

30%

15%

23%

17%

9%

0%0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +

2!17 Ann. Starts2Q17 Deliveries


St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Starts by Home Price Range - Detached

PAGE 80

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

4%

0% 0% 0%

40%

43%

9%

5%

0%2%

27%

43%

28%

0%0%0%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50k

Ann. Starts Lot Deliveries


St. George Market AreaAnn. Lot Deliveries / Starts by Lot Size - Detached

PAGE 81

www.metrostudy.com

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500

2Q05

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

01224364860728496108120132144156168180

Starts VDL's MOS


St. George Market AreaVacant Developed Lot Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Detached

PAGE 82

4,518

•33.8

vs. 2Q16 1Q17VDL’s- -4% -.6%MOS- -5 m -2 m

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,400

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

0.06.012.018.024.030.036.042.048.054.060.066.072.0

Starts VDL's MOS


St. George Market AreaA & B Lots Only - VDL Inv. / MOS / Ann. Starts – Detached

PAGE 83

1,799

•19.6


St. George Market AreaQuarterly Net Change in VDL Inv. – Detached

PAGE 84

-25

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

Net Lot Delivery Ann. Net Change in VDLSt. George +18Washington -33Hurricane -155

Ivins -74Santa Clara -37

La Verkin -2

July 2017



St. George Market AreaQuarterly Net Change in VDL Inv. by City – Detached

PAGE 85

-7

-21

-1

62

-1

-36

55

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

St. George Washington Hurricane Santa Clara Ivins La Verkin Mesquite

2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17

www.metrostudy.com

1,736

90

185

362

695

1,346

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

St. George Washington Hurricane Ivins Santa Clara La Verkin

2Q17 2Q17 Ann. Starts


St. George Market AreaVacant Developed Lot Inv. by City – Detached / 2Q15-2Q17

PAGE 86

•27.7-.2%

•30.8-.6%

•52.7-12%

•29.6-17%

•13.4-6%

•540 -2%

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

13.4

29.6

52.7

30.827.7

0.0

12.0

24.0

36.0

48.0

60.0

72.0

84.0

96.0

108.0

120.0



St. George Market AreaVacant Developed Lot MOS by City – Detached

PAGE 87

2Q15-2Q17540.0

1092.0

www.metrostudy.com

921

628580

450498476

286

89

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +

2Q17 2Q17 Ann. Starts


St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS / Change – Detached / 2Q16-2Q17

PAGE 88

•36.8-31%

•16.5 -38%

•22.5+12%•21.9

-21%

•25.7 +4%

•28.9 -11%

•50.0 +2%

•72.5 -8%

July 2017



St. George Market Area – by CityVDL Inventory by Home Price – Detached

PAGE 89

14

80100

141165

235

452

344

4 14

127104

5781 89

4367

153

207221

130

183 187

123

050

100150200250300350400450500

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +



St. George Market Area – by CityVDL MOS by Home Price – Detached

PAGE 90

15.07.7

40.2

87.8

17.7

32.228.2

38.243.5

48.8 51.1

14.5

84.0

20.6 21.2

0.08.8

21.9 22.832.4

53.4

64.5

280.5

113.5

0.012.024.036.048.060.072.084.096.0

108.0120.0132.0144.0156.0

$0-$199 $200-$249

$250-$299

$300-$349

$350-$399

$400-$499

$500-$999

$1,000 +


July 2017



St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. / MOS by Lot Size – Detached

PAGE 91

76.0

1.9

31.5

44.0

25.6

37.0

170.2 129.0

24.0 33.536.4

76.8

23.2

6.0

50.2

82.6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50k0.0

12.0

24.0

36.0

48.0

60.0

72.0

84.0

96.0

108.0

120.0

132.02Q16 VD L Inv. 2Q17 VD L Inv.

2Q16 VD L M OS 2Q17 VD L M OS


St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts by Lot Size - Detached

PAGE 92

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

<5k 5k-7k 7k-10k 10k-15k 15k-30k 30k-50k >50k

July 2017


www.metrostudy.com

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

<5k 5k-7k 7k-10k 10k-15k 15k-30k 30k-50k >50k


St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts by Lot Size - Detached

PAGE 93


St. George Market Area – by CityVDL Inventory by Lot Size – Detached

PAGE 94

0

209236

267

530

307

80

0017

81

194

269

108

1802

154

57

363

36 3421

673

050

100150200250300350400450500550

< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50kSt. George Washington Hurricane

July 2017



St. George Market Area – by CityVDL MOS by Lot Size – Detached

PAGE 95

46.4

0.0

31.1

90.8

42.3

126.0

80.0

22.0

0.0

23.4

62.4

14.522.6

0.0 0.0

17.0

41.4

216.0

72.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

39.3

0.0

0.012.024.036.048.060.072.084.096.0

108.0120.0132.0144.0156.0168.0180.0192.0204.0216.0

< 2500 2500 - 5K 5k - 7k 7k - 10k 10k - 15k 15k - 30k 30k - 50k >50kSt. George Washington Hurricane

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17%

31%29%

23%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

A Lots B Lots C Lots D & F Lots


St. George Market AreaVDL Inv. Rank Market Share – Detached / 2Q12-2Q17

PAGE 96

A Lots – 24+ Ann. StartsB Lots – 12-23 Ann. StartsC Lots – 2-11 Ann. StartsD/F Lots – 0-1 Ann. Starts

1,02719.1 mos

77220.2 mos

1,33133.7 mos

1,388 694.0 mos

July 2017


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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

0.0

96.0

192.0

288.0

384.0

480.0

576.0

672.0

768.0

864.0

Detached Attached MOS


St. George Market AreaFuture Lot Supply / Moths of Supply – Att/Det

PAGE 97

Detached – 39,992/ 299.4 mos. / +4%Attached – 2,313 / 152.5 mos. / -8%

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0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

4,000

4,400

4,800

4Q05

2Q06

4Q06

2Q07

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

Streets In - 0Street Paving - 686Excavation - 905Equipment - 314Survey Stakes - 38


St. George Market AreaFuture Lot Inventory: 1,325 Under Dev. / 8.9 MOS – Att/Det

PAGE 98

22 mos

23 mos

9 mos

July 2017



St. George Market AreaFuture Lot Inventory: Current Pipeline by County – Att/Det

PAGE 99

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Streets In

Street PavingExcavation

EquipmentSurvey Stakes

8 mos.7 mos.

18 mos.

8 mos.

3 mos.

0 mos.

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Conclusions2Q 2017

PAGE 100

July 2017



St. George Market AreaYear-Over-Year Percent Changes of Major Housing Components

PAGE 101

8.0%

14.3%12.7% 13.6%

0.0%

-9.0%

-18.8%

8.4%10.2%

5.3%

-6.1%-4.0%

-11.2%

-8.3%

3.2%

‐25.0%

‐20.0%

‐15.0%

‐10.0%

‐5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Improvement Deterioration Neutral

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0250500750

1,0001,2501,5001,7502,0002,2502,5002,7503,0003,2503,500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

F

2018

F

2019

F

2020

F



St. George Market AreaAnnual Starts & Closings Forecast – Att/Det

PAGE 102

**Building Permits

July 2017



St. George Market AreaConclusions…2Q17

PAGE 103

The local economy continues to gain momentum, adding 3,000 jobs over the past 12 months, and total employment is growing at a 4.9%.

Consumer Confidence holding strong, but future expectations look a little cloudy according to consumers.

Keep your eyes on interest rates and prices, as any significant increase will push buyers to the sidelines.

New home production pushing forward despite the pressure of raising home prices.

New home inventory remains healthy with the ability to increase Finished Vacant. Builders have limited resources to build specs (F/V), however if Finished Vacant inventory does increase, expect to see some relief in prices.

The need for replacement lots in the main price ranges and desirable lot sizes remain in high demand.

The building industry as a whole is more cautious, concerned, yet positive; therefore carefully monitor absorption rates and inventory levels as we head into the second half of the year.

The key will be to maintain prices for entry level buyers, while being diligent in delivering desirable product.

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…now you knowPAGE 104

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