4
- 1 - ȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈďǖǩÉĹ20Ødzbǭǝÿ]ȩȳȥȓµħǵ®/ Extraction of Latent Topic Transition using Dynamic Topic Model óÒ t *1 Ď *1 Mamoru Emoto Yukio Ohsawa *1 ×lrlrƔrĹġĬĦ School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo In this study, we focus on extraction of latent topic transition from POS data. POS analysis is conducted to obtain frequent patterns of customer’s behavior. In the fundamental method for POS analysis such as market basket analysis we can extract sets of products often bought at the same time. In market basket analysis, however, the effect of time series is hardly considered. We conducted the experiment based on two hypotheses. One is that each product has several topics. The other is that the proportion of each product on a topic changes as the time period changes. To extract topics and their changes, we used Dynamic Topic Model (DTM), an extended model of Latent Dirihlet Allocation (LDA). As a result, we obtained the change of the word distribution on each topic. Different topics have different characters, but seem to have a certain co-relationship correlation according to the correlation analysis we executed for several items. 1. gãdzǙǖǮ POS (Point Of Sales)țȝȧȻdzȂȄBƘǢȆ ȅƞwżŹȨɉȢ0ØǶƎŢǯǕȅ.XSǵgȆŞǜȀ^aǡ ǰǵgȆIJXSǵǵ0Ø,JÉżŹǢȆȀǥǖXSǵĉuȈ ŞǗǩǾdz POS 0ØǶŞȇȆǮǙȄ,őǵȢȍȻȟɉɃǵv ÁSę,Ɩ2XSǵň,ődzƖ2ǥȅXSǵôudzĮǮ ȃȆǮǖȅ.Ǽǩ,ƂǶ ID-POS ǰQǷȆȅ,T ID,ȓɄȜȥȩȑ ɉȪēEDzDZǛĽǖǩ POS ȨɉȢǵBƘǿīäėdzƈǾȃ ȆǮǖȅ.ID-POS ǰëàrŊǵ«øȈŀǽHȇǧȅǠǰǯGƞ wdzHȇǧǩXSǵµŝǛDŎǰDzȄ,ǼǩȷɃȡȫ0ØȈŞǗ Ǡǰǯ,,ÖɃ,4DzDZǚȃXSżŹȰȢɉɇǵ0ØȈ ŞǗǠǰǛDŎǰDzȅ. gãdzǙǞȅ POS 0Ø«øǵǬdzȹɉȕȥȩȯȝȕȥȩ 0ØǛǕȅ.ǠȆǶȋȡțȏɉțɀɇ0ØǵǬǯǕȄ,ȝɉȰɉ ȀȗɇȲȬȏɇȝȝȩȋDzDZǵŹǖĈȑȘɊȯȝȕȥȩɋǵǯJ ÉżŹĢċǵƤǖXSȈ0Øǥȅ«øǯǕȅ.GżŹȯȝȕȥȩ -ǵXSǵ+ŽȈũĴǣ,ConfidenceɊ#ƛɋ,SupportɊ¹° ɋȈòǾǩdz LiftɊɂȴȩ%ɋȈũĴǥȅǠǰǛvãđǯǶj ǖ.ɂȴȩ%ǰǶ,ǓÕ X ǵÉǵŵ Y ǵ8HǔȈǓ*ǯǵ ŵ Y ǵ8Hǔǯ8ǫǩǿǵǯǕȅ.ǠȆȈgãǵ¾ŏdzňǜ¸ ǘȅǰ,ǓXS X ǛŹȇȆǩÉdzXS Y ǿŹȇȆȅĢċǔȈǓ* ǯXS Y ǛŹȇȆȅĢċǔǯ8ǫǩǿǵǰŧƍǢȆȅǩǾ,X S X,Y ǵJÉżŹ'KȈşǥ±çǰDzȅ.ǣǚǣ,ȹɉȕȥȩȯȝ ȕȥȩ0ØdzǙǖǮǶ,ȯȝȕȥȩǵÉĹ2Ƕŋ§ǣǮǖDzǖ. Ǽǩ,vƗǵżŹŞ<dzǙǖǮ,XSǶǬǚǵȩȳȥȓȈÍǣǮ ǙȄ,ÉĹ2dzȂȄȩȳȥȓ-ǯǵȩȳȥȓȃǣǢǶh=ǥȅǰŋǘȃ Ȇȅ.ȈǬ²ǟȅǰ,¢řȗɉȫɉǯgȃȆǮǖȅV·ǟǶ, ȃǶǰǣǮżŹǢȆȅǠǰǛjǖɊȩȳȥȓȃǣǢǛƤ ǖɋÀǯ,kƒǶȲɉɃǵǙǬǼǽǰǣǮżŹǢȆȅǠǰǛjǖ ɊǙǬǼǽȩȳȥȓȃǣǢǛƤǖɋ,ǰǖǫǩ,HǯǕȅ.XSǵȩȳ ȥȓȃǣǢǵÉĹ2ėµħȈŋ§ǥȅǠǰǯ,ɂȴȩ%ǵȂǗDz 2 X SƒǵƓ"ǪǞǯDzǝ,żŹȩȳȥȓȈŋ§ǣǩȹɉȕȧȌɇȔ© ĒȈijudzĮǬǰŋǘȅ. ÒġĬdzǙǖǮǶ,ŐĄŨŭ.čǯjǝďǖȃȆȅȩȳȥȓȽ ȨɃǵǯǿ,Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA) [Blei 03]ǵ¯ ȽȨɃǯ, ÉĹ2Ȉŋ§ǣǩ Dynamic Topic Model ɊDTMɋ [Blei 06]Ȉ POS ȨɉȢdzƉďǣ,ÉĹ2h=ǣǩÉdzȩȳȥȓƊ ħȈ®/ǣǩ. 2. ıŌǶ,Ʉțȳ+ÍșȍȩȈƜÓǰǣǮ¿čƒǵ0Ɲǰĉ® /ȈŞǖ,Ʉțȳ+Íșȍȩǯ5ďǢȆȅɄțȳǵqĵh=dzǬ ǖǮȧȒȝȩȹȍȬɇȔǵ«ødzȂȄvƣȈŞǫǩ[óÒ 15].șȍ ȩǯǶ,ɄțȳȗɇȧɇȦǰ,ǨǵɄțȳdz}ǥȅůčǵɄȲȿɉ Ǜ¬ĪǢȆǮǖȅ.G¬ĪɄțȳ,ɄȲȿɉdz}ǣǮǶ¬ĪǢȆǩ ÃÉȨɉȢǛĽǭǞȃȆǮǖȅ.ɄțȳɄȲȿɉǵȧȒȝȩȨɉȢ dz}ǣǮ¦ľŧØȈŞǖ,ɆɉȪȑȎɇȩǵ«ødzȂȄ&,y Â,Éğ,ʼnPǣǢǵ 4 Ţľǚȃ¨ȅȶȓȩɃȈ¨ǣǩ.Ǡǵ 4 Ǭ ǵȩȳȥȓǶȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈďǖǮ¨ǣǩǿǵǯǶDzǝ,ÅĞ ȃ[Hayashi 13] Ǜ¶WǥȅȋȓțɀɇɈȵɁɇȬɇȔǰǖǗ«øȈ ďǖǮ, ȝɉȰɉȹɉȕȥȩdzǙǞȅɄțȳµŝȋȵɂǵƑĔdz ǬǖǮǵȋȓțɀɇȵɁɇȈ¨ǣǩƗ,jǝŲŰǛDzǢȆǩȩȳȥ ȓǚȃuǾǩ.0ØǵŁÚ,GŢľ%ǛlǜǖÌǛp]ǥȅǠǰȈ ĉuǣǩ. ƤêȃǶ,ÒġĬdzǿďǥȅ DTM 0ØȈÉĹ2Ȭȿɉȝdz }ǣǮvÁǣ,¡cƘĺȈŞǗǩǾǵĩƝǵÀǰǣǮ,ȯɉȝ ȩŧØǰȩȳȥȓȽȨɃǵ 2 Ǭǵ«øȈŀǽHȇǧ,ÉĹ2Ȭȿ ɉȝǚȃµuǢȆǩȩȳȥȓdzƓǥȅȯɉȝȩȈâ/ǥȅ«øȈ ¶ßǣǮǖȅ[Ƥê 11]. POS ȨɉȢdzȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈďǖǩġĬǰǣǮĠ`ȃ Ƕ,PLSIɊĢċėÿ]¤PŧØɋȈ ID-POS ȨɉȢdz}ǣǮŞǖ, ƞwǵżŹȰȢɉɇdzbǭǖǩŐ<ėDzȩȳȥȓϨȈǣ,ƞw ǰXSȈJÉ0Ɲǣ,ǨǵdzȑȧȘɂdz;ǘǮ,,żŹÉƒ ,ȯɉȖɇDzDZǵĊ÷h¼Ȉ ID ǜ POS ȨɉȢdzǣ,ȶ ȍȜȋɇȭȥȩɆɉȓdzȂȄGh¼ƒƓ"ȈĢċėåƅȽȨɃǯ şČǣ,h¼ƒƓ"ǵ®/øȈ¶ßǣǮǖȅ[Ġ` 11].Ǽǩ,ID- Ɔł(ƯóÒtɌ×lrlrƔ rĹġĬĦ țȝȧȻ9 ¨r~»ɌDŽƹDŽDžƽDŽDžƫƬƭƮƬưƾDŽƹǀǃƫƻDžDŽ lĀĎƩ×lrlrƔ rĹġĬĦ țȝȧȻ9¨r ~»ƩDžƿLjƹNjƹưLjnjLjƫljƫNJƪljDžǂnjDžƫƹƻƫǁdž ƸƿǀLj LJƽLjƽƹLJƻƿ NjƹLj LjNJdždžDžLJljƽƼ ƺnj ƳƷƸƩ ƱƶƲƷƸ ÒġĬdzďǣǩ ƵƴƷ ȨɉȢȈ¶ǣǮǝǪǢǫǩÝĥ ȑȝȺǵĘædz¥űĐǣǟǼǥƫ The 30th Annual Conference of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence, 2016 4M1-1

7KH 4M1-1 )3% =(C ÖéÉ920ØóbíÝÿ])3% µ'õ®/ …...- 1 - )3% =(C ÖéÉ920ØóbíÝÿ])3% µ'õ®/ Extraction of Latent T opic Transition using Dynamic Topic Model óÒ ¨t*1

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Page 1: 7KH 4M1-1 )3% =(C ÖéÉ920ØóbíÝÿ])3% µ'õ®/ …...- 1 - )3% =(C ÖéÉ920ØóbíÝÿ])3% µ'õ®/ Extraction of Latent T opic Transition using Dynamic Topic Model óÒ ¨t*1

- 1 -

ȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈďǖǩÉĹ20Ødzbǭǝÿ]ȩȳȥȓµħǵ®/ Extraction of Latent Topic Transition using Dynamic Topic Model

óÒƨ t*1 lĀƨ �Ď*1 Mamoru Emoto Yukio Ohsawa

*1ƨ ×lrlrƔ�rĹġĬĦ School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo

In this study, we focus on extraction of latent topic transition from POS data. POS analysis is conducted to obtain frequent patterns of customer’s behavior. In the fundamental method for POS analysis such as market basket analysis we can extract sets of products often bought at the same time. In market basket analysis, however, the effect of time series is hardly considered.ƨ We conducted the experiment based on two hypotheses. One is that each product has several topics. The other is that the proportion of each product on a topic changes as the time period changes. To extract topics and their changes, we used Dynamic Topic Model (DTM), an extended model of Latent Dirihlet Allocation (LDA). As a result, we obtained the change of the word distribution on each topic. Different topics have different characters, but seem to have a certain co-relationship correlation according to the correlation analysis we executed for several items.

1. ���� �gãdzǙǖǮ POS (Point Of Sales)țȝȧȻdzȂȄBƘǢȆ

ȅƞwżŹȨɉȢ0ØǶƎŢǯǕȅ.XSǵgȆŞǜȀ^aǡǰǵgȆIJXSǵ�ǵ0Ø,JÉżŹǢȆȀǥǖXSǵĉuȈŞǗǩǾdz POS 0ØǶŞȇȆǮǙȄ,�őǵȢȍȻȟɉɃǵvÁSę,Ɩ2XSǵ�ň,�ődzƖ2ǥȅXSǵôudz�ĮǮȃȆǮǖȅ.Ǽǩ,Ƃ�Ƕ ID-POS ǰQǷȆȅ,�T ID,ȓɄȜȥȩȑɉȪēEDzDZǛĽ�ǖǩ POS ȨɉȢǵBƘǿīäėdzƈǾȃȆǮǖȅ.ID-POS ǰëàrŊǵ«øȈŀǽHȇǧȅǠǰǯGƞwdzHȇǧǩXSǵµŝǛDŎǰDzȄ,ǼǩȷɃȡȫ0ØȈŞǗǠǰǯ,��,Ö�Ƀ,�4DzDZǚȃXSżŹȰȢɉɇǵ0ØȈŞǗǠǰǛDŎǰDzȅ. �gãdzǙǞȅ POS 0Ø«øǵ�Ǭdzȹɉȕȥȩȯȝȕȥȩ

0ØǛǕȅ.ǠȆǶȋȡțȏɉțɀɇ0Øǵ�ǬǯǕȄ,ȝɉȰɉȀȗɇȲȬȏɇȝȝȩȋDzDZǵŹǖĈȑȘɊȯȝȕȥȩɋǵ�ǯJ

ÉżŹĢċǵƤǖXSȈ0Øǥȅ«øǯǕȅ.GżŹȯȝȕȥȩ-ǵXSǵ+Ž�ȈũĴǣ,ConfidenceɊ#ƛ�ɋ,SupportɊ¹°�ɋȈòǾǩ�dz LiftɊɂȴȩ%ɋȈũĴǥȅǠǰǛvãđǯǶjǖ.ɂȴȩ%ǰǶ,ǓÕ� X ǵÉǵ�ŵ Y ǵ8HǔȈǓ*�ǯǵ�ŵ Y ǵ8Hǔǯ8ǫǩǿǵǯǕȅ.ǠȆȈ�gãǵ¾ŏdzňǜ¸ǘȅǰ,ǓXS X ǛŹȇȆǩÉdzXS Y ǿŹȇȆȅĢċǔȈǓ*�ǯXS Y ǛŹȇȆȅĢċǔǯ8ǫǩǿǵǰŧƍǢȆȅǩǾ,XS X,Y ǵJÉżŹ'KȈşǥ±çǰDzȅ.ǣǚǣ,ȹɉȕȥȩȯȝȕȥȩ0ØdzǙǖǮǶ,ȯȝȕȥȩǵÉĹ2�Ƕŋ§ǣǮǖDzǖ.Ǽǩ,vƗǵżŹŞ<dzǙǖǮ,XSǶ�ǬǚǵȩȳȥȓȈÍǣǮǙȄ,ÉĹ2dzȂȄȩȳȥȓ-ǯǵȩȳȥȓȃǣǢǶh=ǥȅǰŋǘȃȆȅ.�Ȉ�Ǭ²ǟȅǰ,¢řȗɉȫɉǯgȃȆǮǖȅV·ǟǶ,ȃǶ��ǰǣǮżŹǢȆȅǠǰǛjǖɊ��ȩȳȥȓȃǣǢǛƤ

ǖɋ�Àǯ,kƒǶȲɉɃǵǙǬǼǽǰǣǮżŹǢȆȅǠǰǛjǖɊǙǬǼǽȩȳȥȓȃǣǢǛƤǖɋ,ǰǖǫǩ,HǯǕȅ.XSǵȩȳȥȓȃǣǢǵÉĹ2ėµħȈŋ§ǥȅǠǰǯ,ɂȴȩ%ǵȂǗDz 2 XSƒǵƓ"ǪǞǯDzǝ,żŹȩȳȥȓȈŋ§ǣǩȹɉȕȧȌɇȔ©ĒȈijudz�ĮǬǰŋǘȅ. ÒġĬdzǙǖǮǶ,ŐĄŨŭ.čǯjǝďǖȃȆȅȩȳȥȓȽ

ȨɃǵ�ǯǿ,Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA) [Blei 03]ǵ¯�ȽȨɃǯ,ÉĹ2�Ȉŋ§ǣǩ Dynamic Topic ModelɊDTMɋ

[Blei 06]Ȉ POS ȨɉȢdzƉďǣ,ÉĹ2h=ǣǩÉdzȩȳȥȓƊħȈ®/ǣǩ.

2. �� � ıŌǶ,Ʉțȳ+ÍșȍȩȈƜÓǰǣǮ¿čƒǵ0Ɲǰĉ�®

/ȈŞǖ,Ʉțȳ+Íșȍȩǯ5ďǢȆȅɄțȳǵqĵh=dzǬǖǮȧȒȝȩȹȍȬɇȔǵ«ødzȂȄvƣȈŞǫǩ[óÒ 15].șȍȩǯǶ,ɄțȳȗɇȧɇȦǰ,ǨǵɄțȳdz}ǥȅůč�ǵɄȲȿɉǛ¬ĪǢȆǮǖȅ.G¬ĪɄțȳ,ɄȲȿɉdz}ǣǮǶ¬ĪǢȆǩÃÉȨɉȢǛĽǭǞȃȆǮǖȅ.ɄțȳɄȲȿɉǵȧȒȝȩȨɉȢdz}ǣǮ�¦ľŧØȈŞǖ,ɆɉȪȑȎɇȩǵ«ødzȂȄ&�,yÂ,Éğ,ʼnPǣǢǵ 4Ţľǚȃ¨ȅȶȓȩɃȈ�¨ǣǩ.Ǡǵ 4ǬǵȩȳȥȓǶȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈďǖǮ�¨ǣǩǿǵǯǶDzǝ,ÅĞ�ȃ[Hayashi 13]Ǜ¶WǥȅȋȓțɀɇɈȵɁɇȬɇȔǰǖǗ«øȈďǖǮ,ȝɉȰɉȹɉȕȥȩdzǙǞȅɄțȳµŝȋȵɂǵƑĔdzǬǖǮǵȋȓțɀɇȵɁɇȈ�¨ǣǩƗ,jǝŲŰǛDzǢȆǩȩȳȥȓǚȃuǾǩ.0ØǵŁÚ,GŢľ%ǛlǜǖÌǛp]ǥȅǠǰȈĉuǣǩ. ƤêȃǶ,ÒġĬdzǿ�ďǥȅ DTM0ØȈÉĹ2Ȭȿɉȝdz

}ǣǮvÁǣ,¡cƘĺȈŞǗǩǾǵĩƝǵÀ�ǰǣǮ,ȯɉȝȩŧØǰȩȳȥȓȽȨɃǵ 2 Ǭǵ«øȈŀǽHȇǧ,ÉĹ2ȬȿɉȝǚȃµuǢȆǩȩȳȥȓdzƓǥȅȯɉȝȩȈâ/ǥȅ«øȈ

¶ßǣǮǖȅ[Ƥê 11]. POS ȨɉȢdzȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈďǖǩġĬǰǣǮĠ`ȃ

Ƕ,PLSIɊĢċėÿ]¤PŧØɋȈ ID-POSȨɉȢdz}ǣǮŞǖ,ƞwǵżŹȰȢɉɇdzbǭǖǩŐ<ėDzȩȳȥȓϨȈǣ,ƞwǰXSȈJÉ0Ɲǣ,Ǩǵ�dzȑȧȘɂdz;ǘǮ,mð,żŹÉƒ�,ȯɉȖɇDzDZǵĊ÷h¼Ȉ ID �ǜ POS ȨɉȢdz��ǣ,ȶȍȜȋɇȭȥȩɆɉȓdzȂȄGh¼ƒƓ"ȈĢċėåƅȽȨɃǯ

şČǣ,h¼ƒƓ"ǵ®/øȈ¶ßǣǮǖȅ[Ġ`ƨ 11].Ǽǩ,ID-

Ɔł(ƯóÒtɌ×lrlrƔƨ �rĹġĬĦƨ țȝȧȻ9

¨r~»ɌDŽƹDŽDžƽDŽDžƫƬƭƮƬưƾDŽƹǀǃƫƻDžDŽƨ

lĀ�ĎƩ×lrlrƔƨ �rĹġĬĦƨ țȝȧȻ9¨r

~»ƩDžƿLjƹNjƹưLjnjLjƫljƫNJƪljDžǂnjDžƫƹƻƫǁdžƨ

ƸƿǀLjƨLJƽLjƽƹLJƻƿƨNjƹLjƨLjNJdždžDžLJljƽƼƨƺnjƨƳƷƸƩƨƱƶƲƷƸƨ

ÒġĬdz�ďǣǩ ƵƴƷ ȨɉȢȈ¶�ǣǮǝǪǢǫǩÝ��ĥ

ȑȝȺǵĘædz¥űĐǣ�ǟǼǥƫ

The 30th Annual Conference of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence, 2016

4M1-1

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POSȨɉȢdz}ǣǮ PLSI ȈŞǖ,ƞwǰXSȈJÉ0Ɲǣǩ�dz ,ƞwȋɇȕɉȩȨɉȢǚȃƞwǵüź ,ĎúZoȈ®/ǣ,PLSI ǵŁÚǰŃHǥȅǠǰdzȂȄ,ƞwȰɉȡȫɂȧȌȀɁȍȴȝȢȍɃȈŋ§ǣǩƞwǰXSǵJÉȑȧȘɂ0ƝǿŞǫǮǖȅ

[Ġ`ƨ 10].ǖǦȆǵġĬdzǙǖǮǿ,ID-POS dz}ǣǮȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈďǖȅǠǰǯ,ƞwǵĉ�Ȉ®/ǣ,ȓɁȝȢɂɇȔȈŞǗǠǰdzĝęǣǮǙȄ,�ő*�ǵÉĹ2ȩȳȥȓƊħdzǬǖǮǶŋ§ǢȆǮǖDzǖ.ÒġĬǯǶ,ƞwȶɉȝǯǶDzǝ,�őȶɉȝǵȩȳȥȓƊħȈ®/ǥȅǩǾdz Dynamic Topic ModelȈďǖǩ.

3. Dynamic Topic Model Dynamic Topic ModelɊDTMɋǶ,LDA ǵÉĹ2¯�ȽȨɃ

ǯǕȅ.ȩȳȥȓ0�ǰȩȳȥȓǡǰǵ?ŭ0�dzɃȹɃȗȴ�ȈCȄ)ȆǩȽȨɃǰǣǮ¶ßǢȆ,ȩȳȥȓǡǰǵ?ŭ0�,ȩȳȥȓ0�ǵɃĔ�Ȉ³ǘȅǠǰǛDŎǯǕȅ.ĢċėϨȽȨɃǵťŦėşČǯǕȅȔɁȴȌȑɃȽȨɃȈďǖǮ DTMȈşǣǩ [Ȉ[ 1dz,ϨȽȨɃȈ[ 2dzĤǥ.

[ 1ǵ KǶȩȳȥȓ¼,NǶÉ6 tdzǙǞȅŭ�¼,DǶÉ6 tdzǙǞȅ¾Ë¼ǯǕȅ.ǍǶ,¾Ë-ȩȳȥȓ0�ȈϨǥȅǩǾǵȮȍȰɉȰɁȼɉȢǯǕȄ,É6 t-1 ǵȩȳȥȓ0�ȈAÇǣǮÉ6 tǵǍǛϨǢȆȅǠǰȈĤǣǮǖȅ. ?ŭǵ/Č0�ǶƆń%ȈǰȅĢċh¼ǯǕȅǩǾ,ÉĹ2ȽȨɂɇȔdzǙǖǮǶĊ¦ĭƒ

ȽȨɃɊstate space modelɋȈ LDAdzƉďǥȅǠǰǯ DTMdz¯�ǢȆǮǖȅ.Ċ¦ĭƒȽȨɃǶìŤ0�Ȉ�uǥȅǩǾ,Ċ¦ĭƒȽȨɃdzȂȅȽȨɃ=ǯǶ,v¼ȶȓȩɃǛϨǢȆȅǩǾ,jƚ0�dzďǖȅǩǾdz soft-maxƓ¼ɊìŤ=±¼Ɠ¼ɋǑȈ5ďǣǮh¸ǥȅ.ǏǶ¾Ë-ȩȳȥȓ0�ȈϨǥȅǩǾǵvȶȓȩɃǯǕȄ,ǐǶǏȈ soft-max Ɠ¼ȈďǖǮh¸ǣ,ϨǢȆȅ¾Ë-ȩȳȥȓ0�ǯǕȅ.ǎǶÉ6 t dzϨǢȆȅȩȳȥȓǰǣǮϨǢȆȅvȶȓȩɃǯǕȄ,Gȩȳȥȓǵ?ŭ0�ǛÉĹ2h=ǥȅǠǰȈĤǣǮǖȅ.ǎȈ soft-max Ɠ¼ȈďǖǮh¸ǥȅǠǰǯȩȳȥȓ-?ŭ0�ǒȈϨǥȅ.

4. DTM����������

4.1 � !"���� ÒġĬdzǙǖǮǶ,DTM ȈȝɉȰɉȹɉȕȥȩdzǮC�ǢȆǩ

POS ȨɉȢdz}ǣǮƉďǣ,ĉdzGȩȳȥȓ-ǯǵ?ŭ0�ǵÉĹ2h=(ǎǵh=)dzĝęǣǮ0ØȈŞǗ.��ǵ0ØȴɅɉdz�ǫǮvƣȈvÁǣǩ.ş 1dz POSȨɉȢǵȼȢȨɉȢȈĤǥ. l POS ȨɉȢȈȩɁɇȚȓțɀɇǡǰdzǼǰǾ,ȯȝȕȥȩȈ�

¨ l ż)Ă¼ 5ĂÑþǵȯȝȕȥȩȈȴȌɃȢɉdzȂȄƕ@,)

:ȴȊȍɃȈ�¨ l 7ȝȧȥȵǯ�¨ǣǩȴȊȍɃȈ):ǰǣǮ,DTM dzȂȄ0

Ø l /:ŁÚǚȃȩȳȥȓ-?ŭ0�ǵÉĹ2h=Ȉ®/

ş 1ƨ 0Ø}ŵ POSȨɉȢ

BƘЃ 2014/09/01-2014/11/30 ȯȝȕȥȩ¼Ɋż)Ă¼ 5Ă��ɋ 212439

ŭ�¼ɊXSĩƝ¼ɋ 17162 ȩȳȥȓȽȨɃǵ}ŵǵjǝǶȧȒȝȩȨɉȢ,ǬǼȄ¾ËǯǕȄ,Bag of Words ǰǣǮ¾Ë-dz?ŭǛLǼȆǮǖȅǿǵȈ):ǰǣµuȈŞǗ.ÒġĬdzǙǖǮǶ,¾ËǰżŹȯȝȕȥȩ,?ŭǰȯȝȕȥȩ-XSǰǖǗ}�Ɠ"ǵƝ��dzbǭǜ POS ȨɉȢdz}ǣǮȩȳȥȓȽȨɃȈƉďǣǮǖȅ.DTM dzȂȅµudzǙǖ

ǮǶ,C++ǯ�¨ǢȆǩȵɅȔɁȻȈďǖǩ.Ǽǩ,DTM ǵ3ÐÕ

�Ƕ,�7vƣdzȂȅů½ǵŁÚ,ȩȳȥȓ¼ k=5,Ǎ=0.1 ǰŪuǣǩ.ȯȝȕȥȩǶÃǡǰdz08ǣ,GÃ�ȈȢȍȻȳɂȐȪǰǣǮǙȄ,t=0,1,2,…,90ǯǕȅ.

4.2 ���� DTM dzȂȄϨǢȆǩ 5 ǬǵȩȳȥȓdzǬǖǮȑȧȘɂǰ?ŭ

0�ǵ�� 10�ǵȋȍȧȻ(t=0)Ȉş 2dzĤǥ.ş 2dzĤǣǮǖȅ��ȋȍȧȻǶ t=0ǵÉǵ��ȋȍȧȻǯǕȅǚȃ,DTMŧØdzȂȄÉ6 t ǵh=dz�Ǘ��ȋȍȧȻǵh=ǛĔĎǥȅǛ,*�ǰǣǮǶGȩȳȥȓdzƓǣǮ?ŭ0�Ǜ��ǵXSǚȃ��ǵ

ȂǗDzĉ�ǛţȃȆǩ. l Topic0:ŘoȰɇ,ơ¿ñ,ȝȫȥȓ l Topic1:¢ř,āƌ,ǙƋ l Topic2:Əř,ōɊ¿čǵÓ¿ɋ l Topic3:¢ř,șɁȣ,/ÖHǖS l Topic4:ÏƟ,ō,�ŠS

ş 2ƨ Topic-��ȋȍȧȻ(t=0) Topic Item

Topic0 ǖǷȃǝƨ ǕǤȇǖćdĆ�ƨ ɏɎɎɎɟɞ, ȗȑɈȗɉɁƨ áǵñǪȂȄƨ ɐə,

ɛɘəəȯȫȫ,

[ 2ƨ DTMϨȽȨɃ

[ 1ƨ DTM ȔɁȴȌȑɃȽȨɃ

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İ�ȰɇȐ−ɃȪȴȊȥțɀɇȤɀȗɖɓ$, ȺȥȓȝșɁȣ, ǿȀǣɐɎɎɝɊ{fɋ,

ȩȹȩƨ ə, ȑɃȲɉiȸȧȩ}Ƣǵû�eP,ȗɅȥȕƨ ɕɔƨ Ɋ�şɈ�ő�ďȗɉȪɋ, ×Ȯȩƨ ȸȧȗƨ ǗǼǣǙP

Topic1

ȐɂȜɇXS, ȀǜǰȄȯɁŸg, lǜDzŕƦV·ǟ,

ȗɅȥȕƨ ɕɔƨ Ɋ�şɈ�ő�ďȗɉȪɋ, ȗȑȗɉɁƨ ȠɅƨ ɓɎɎɚə, Əřǚǜ·, ŅƧƨ ɓɐɓɚə,

ȋșȱƨ ȎȌɃȒɇȡɇāƌƨ ɓɎɎɚə, ÆRƨ ņŖƨ ɓɎɎɚə,

Ȓɂɇƨ >�ǵĻŖǙǖǣǖăĸɓɎɎɚə

Topic2

ǿȀǣɐɎɎɝɊ{fɋ,dzȃɊÔɋ,ȒȾȶȦ,ȐɉȏȻȦɉȺɉȩŴōȝɁȍȝɊ1śǣɋ, ǜȁǗȄɊȯɁɋ,ȺȬȩȹȩl,

ŒŗɊɏɎɎɝȰȥȓɋ, ȒȾȶȦɊȑȥȩɋ ǘǵǜŗɊɐɎɎɝɋ, ƐŜɊɏÒɋ

Topic3

×ĮX�ƨ �Ś¢ř, ȐɂȜɇXS, Ŕíƨ ąǜƥ, ȐɉȏȻȦɉȺɉȩ¢řǨǵ�, ȐɉȏȻȦɉȺɉȩƨ ĶƠ, ȗɅȥȕƨ ɕɔƨ Ɋ�şɈ�ő�ďȗɉȪɋ, ȐɉȏȻȦɉȺɉƨ ·Ĉ, ǙǬǼǽÛų,

ǻǩǮǵģƁmǹȃ, ȐɉȏȻȦɉȺɉȩƨ ý¢ř

Topic4

ȒȾȶȦ,ǖǷȃǝƨ ǕǤȇǖćdĆ�ƨ ɏɎɎɎɟɞ, #�Ƥ�ƟSƨ ʼnPǣǖǜǴǰǗǸɑ$, ÃÒȮȻƨ țȾȎȏȥȟɇɐȕÔ,

ǙǿǮDzǣǩǼǡƨ ĕɏɎ$,ǿȀǣɐɎɎɝɊ{fɋ,ȗɅȥȕƨ ɕɔƨ Ɋ�şɈ�ő�ďȗɉȪɋ,ǙǚǾƨ ǸȇȄȉȀȇȃǚļųƨ ɒɎɗɜɑ, ǙǚǾƨ ÄPǚǬǙƨ ȺȬɑ,

5Þƨ ĶõȈ�ǫǩõ·ǟƨ ɓÙƨ ɐ! ƨ Ǽǩ,Topic1,2,3 dzǬǖǮ?ŭ0�ǵ%ǵÉĹ2�_ǵ��ȋȍȧȻ 4 �Ȉ®/ǣ,ȔɁȴdzǼǰǾǩŁÚȈ[ 3 ǚȃ[ 5 dzĤǥ.

[ 3ƨ Topic1?ŭ0�ÉĹ2�_��ȋȍȧȻ

[ 4ƨ Topic2?ŭ0�ÉĹ2�_��ȋȍȧȻ

[ 5ƨ Topic3?ŭ0�ÉĹ2�_��ȋȍȧȻ

5. �� ƨ Ò0ØǯǶ,ǕȅȝɉȰɉȹɉȕȥȩdzǙǖǮ 2014 � 9 Ì 1Ãǚȃ 2014 � 11 Ì 30 ÃdzBƘǢȆǩ POS ȨɉȢdzǬǖǮDynamic Topic Model(DTM)ȈƉďǣ,Gȩȳȥȓǵ?ŭ0�ǵÉĹ2ƊħȈ®/ǣǩ.[ 3-[ 5 ǵŁÚǚȃ,GȋȍȧȻǵ?ŭ0�ǵÉĹ2h=dzǶ, �ėdzlǜDz%ȈĤǣǮǖȅȋȍȧȻǰ,�ªėdzlǜDz%Ȉ°ǬÉĹ2h=ȈŞǗȋȍȧȻǛp]ǥȅǠǰǛȇǚȅ.ĉdz[ 3 ǯĤǢȆǩ Topic1 ǰ[ 5 ǯĤǢȆǩTopic3 ǯǶ,ȐɂȜɇXSɊ¢řɋ,�Ś¢řǛ�dzƤǖ%ȈĤǣǮǖȅ.[ 4 ǯĤǢȆǩ TopicɐɊƏř,ōɊ¿čǵÓ¿ɋǵjǖȩȳȥȓɋǶ,�ªėdzƤǖ%Ȉš¼ǵXSǛJÃdzĤǣǮǖȅǠǰǛĉ�ǰǣǮ²ǟȃȆȅ.�Ƈƒdz�YɊ\ÊÃ,ÃÊÃɋĨ�ǵOÐǯš¼ǵXSǛƤǖ%ȈĤǥǠǰǛǕȄ,ůčÓ¿ǰǣǮǵƟSȈjǝż)ǥȅƞwǛjǖÃǛp]ǣǮǖȅǠǰǛ0ǚ

ȅ. ƨ Topic1 ǰ Topic3 ǯǶ,��ȋȍȧȻdz¢řǛjǝ/Čǥȅ.�Àǵȩȳȥȓǯ?ŭ0�ǛƤǖ%ȈĤǥȋȍȧȻdzǬǖǮ,Gȩȳȥȓǯǵ%Ȉïſǥȅ.ǠǠǯǶ�ǰǣǮ,ǓɄȢȝǰȗɉɇǵșɁȣǔ,ǓȐɂȜɇXSǔdzƓǣǮȔɁȴȈ�¨ǣ,[ 6,[ 7dzĤǥ

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ƨ GȋȍȧȻdzǬǖǮ,Topic1 ǰ Topic3 ǵ%dzǬǖǮǵěƓ0ØǵŁÚ,ǓɄȢȝǰȗɉɇǵșɁȣǔǯǶ-0.345442,ǓȐɂȜɇX SǔǯǶ-0.755951 ǰDzȄ,ŶǵěƓǛĤUǢȆǩ.Topic1 ǵ?ŭ0�dzǙǖǮǶ¢řǰǰǿdzāƌơ¿,ǙƋǛƤǖ%ȈĤǣǮǖȅǠǰǚȃ Topic1 ǵżŹȰȢɉɇǯǶ,¢řǶǙǬǼǽŢľǛ�ǖǠǰǛ£uǢȆȅ. ��ǵŋ|ȈžǼǘ,��ǵŮƜǰǣǮǶ,¢řXSǵżŹ�Żǵh=dzǬǖǮÊÃ,żŹÉƒ�ǰǵƓƆ�DzDZȈůÜǥȅǠǰȈ²ǟǩǖ.Ǽǩ,ȂȄƐÐėDz POSȨɉȢȈ}ŵǰǥȅǠǰ,ȢȍȻȳɂȐȪǵķ�ȈĿǚǝǣ,Ƀ?�ǯǵ0ØȈŞǗǠǰǿ²ǟȃȆȅ.Ƀ?�ǯǵżŹȩȳȥȓǵµħȈ®/ǥȅǠǰǯ,ȹȝėDzťĂǯ,ȢȍȻȟɉɃǵ©Ē,x�ÀøǵºœȈŞǗƗdz�ĮǬ.ǢȃdzČ]Ƕ­ȆŇȔɁȴdzȂȅDť=ǵǽǯǕȅǛ,DTM dzȂȄ?ŭ0�ǵÉĹ2h=ǛŞ2ǰǣǮC�DŎǯǕȅǚȃ,ȂȄĚ¥ėdzɃµħǛčŧǯǜȅȂǗDzDť=«øǵġĬǿ�ÎǰǣǮǕǟȃȆȅ.ȝɉȰɉȹɉȕȥȩǵżŹǶ¿čǰz´dzƓ"ǣǮǖȅǩǾ,ƓƆġĬǯƃǺǩɄțȳ+ÍșȍȩȈ}ŵǰǣǮ DTMŧØȈŞǖ,ȧȒȝȩȨɉȢdzbǭǖǮƟÓǵqĵh<DzDZȈ®/ǣ,POS ȨɉȢǰǵïſȈŞǗǠǰǯ,üźŌǵżŹȰȢɉɇǵ®/ȈŞǗǠǰǿūǽǩǖ.

���� [Blei 03]ƨ Blei, D.M., Ng, A.Y. and Jordan, M.I.: Latent Dirichlet ƨ ƨ Allocation, Journal of Machine Learning Research, Vol.3, ƨ ƨ ƨ ƨ pp.993–1022 (2003). [Blei 06]ƨ Blei, D.M. and Lafferty, J.D.: Dynamic Topic Models, ƨ ƨ Proc. 23rd ICML, pp.113– 120 (2006). [óÒ 15]ƨ óÒƨ t,lĀƨ �n:Ʉțȳ+ÍșȍȩdzǙǞȅ¿č ƨ ƨ ƒ0Ɲǰĉ�®/,IEICE technical report, Vol.115, No.337,

ƨ ƨ pp73-77(2015). [Hayashi 13] Hayashi, T. et al: Processing Combinatorial ƨ ƨ ƨ ƨ Thinking: Innovators Marketplace as Role-based Game Plus ƨ ƨ Action Planning, International Journal of Knowledge and ƨ ƨ Systems Science, Vol. 4(3), pp. 14-38, (2013). [Ƥê 11]ƨ Ƥêƨ � ,éÒlƀ,sùMƨ í�,I�ƨ Ĝö: ƨ ƨ Ȭ ȿɉȝdzǙǞȅȩȳȥȓǵȯɉȝȩĉ�ǵ0Ø,ƨ ¡c.čƨ ƨ ƨ ƨ r�ġĬcN, Vol.2011-NL-204, No.6,pp1-6(2011). [Ġ`ƨ 11]ƨ Ġ`ƨ F,į�ƨ î : Ėŷ� ID �ǜ

POS ȨɉȢǚȃǵȑȧȘɂ4Ċ÷ pėh¼ƒƓ"ǵŐ<®/øɌÃÒȐȷɄɉțɀɇȞɂșɉȤr�ŬɌVol.56, No.2, pp77-83(2011)ɍ

[Ġ`ƨ 10]ƨ Ġ`ƨ F,į�ƨ î : Ģċėÿ]¤PŧØȈďǖǩlŤè ID-POS ǰƞwȋɇȕɉȩǵŃH5ďdzȂȅƞw-XSǵJÉȑȧȘɂ0ƝɌƙo¡cƄ#r�Ŭ, Vol. 109, No.461, pp425-430(2010)

[ 6ƨ ÉĹ2ȩȳȥȓ-?ŭ0�%[ɄȢȝǰȗɉɇǵșɁȣ]

[ 7ƨ ÉĹ2ȩȳȥȓ-?ŭ0�%[ȐɂȜɇXS]