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Prabhu Ramamoorthy – GM
GM Foreign Exchange Hedge
Date: November, 2008
Presented to: Jim Seward Raising Capital and Financing the Firm
Completed by: Prabhu Ramamoorthy
Recommendations
Increase hedge to 75% for hedging the Canadian exposure. The combined hedge percentage is to
account for both operational as well as balance sheet hedge due to monetary assets on the balance
sheet.
Hedge the Argentina position. Hard currency assets must be increased. Hedging can be done using the
forward rates of another reliable hard currency. Other natural ways to hedge would be through
commodities exports/imports done by Argentina.
Alternatives Considered and Ruled Out
Not hedge the monetary liabilities in the balance sheet of the Canadian subsidiary – Monetary liabilities
are without respect to future prices and this may create an exchange risk. So this has to be edged. Not
hedging this would be risky
Analysis
Hedging is necessary for a company such as GM. Appendix A provides arguments along this line.
GM has to revise its policies. It should analyze each transaction on a case by case basis. For transactions
that can be subject to high volatility, it is prudent to hedge a greater percentage of the nominal amount
of the transaction. The current hedging policy does account for this volatility in calculations of positions
to be hedged.
A hedging mechanism for such high volatile currencies ensures that the company does not lose money.
The policy must be changed to assess net balance sheet impact (consider monetary liabilities and
balance sheet effect also). This is because not only operational cash flow items but balance sheet items
such as monetary liability are also subject to exchange risk.
If you consider GM’s Canadian, the operational cash flows are 1,682 (Exhibit 9). Exhibit 10 also reveals
an insight on the balance sheet effects and the monetary liabilities which are subject to exchange rate
risk.
Prabhu Ramamoorthy – GM
Exhibit 11 shows the ARS Monetary liabilities which are subject to exchange rate risk. Both ARS
monetary assets and liabilities have to be hedged to prevent erosion of value. One way would be to
convert to other hard currencies in the near future.
Also it is reasonable to go for option positions which are not very long term. Hence 3 or 6 month
instruments would be a good way to reconsider the hedge going forward. You could periodically balance
them to remain neutral, unwind excesses or buy more protection.
Conclusions
GM’s policy must be revised. GM’s policy must be revised to consider balance sheet effects of exchange
rate risk also. Similar to operational hedging, a policy must be developed to support this risk also.
Appendix B discusses the reasons for this policy change.
Cumulatively when both the effects are considered operational and balance sheet, this signifies an
increase in hedging.
GM can also hedge more by way of options. Since options have a 50% delta (in the way in which GM
chooses it trades), you may allocate a bigger percentage to options. Hedging by the way of options
results only in premiums whereas hedging by way of forwards may call for a bigger notional amount in
the transaction.
Option volatilities may also be higher and it would be easier to balance a hedge based on options by
selling and buying them. Since the purpose of a hedge is to counteract this volatility, increasing the
option may be a policy change that GM can adopt. In this you could prevent rollover charges due to
futures.
Again this depends on a case by case basis and because of black scholes; you may have to pay a higher
for an option even when it is out of the money.
GM must also have a policy in place to prioritize its risk based on political, economic and technology risk.
Having such a policy will ensure that GM can predict volatility/uncertainty and put its hedge in place.
Prabhu Ramamoorthy – GM
Appendix A
Should Multinational firms hedge foreign exchange rate risk?
Multinational firms should hedge foreign exchange. This should be done to prevent
1) Cash flow effect of the foreign firm (if it is denominated in US dollars)
2) Decline in value of the equity holder due to adverse movements in exchange rates.
In both the cases, stock holder’s equity is impacted. Risk Management to manage earnings is very crucial
and unexpected losses due to not managing the risk may result in other expenses or failure to meet
earnings estimates. Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3 reinforce the importance of hedging in GM’s case.
If not, what are the consequences?
Failure to hedge may result in cash flow being very volatile. Significant fluctuations in foreign exchange
distort the cash flow. The company’s cash flow from operations may be stable but exchange
losses/gains may lend an air of unpredictability to the net income statement and the shareholder’s
equity.
In many circumstances of political risk, exchange losses may lead to extraordinary losses also.
If so how should they decide which exposures to hedge?
The positions that should be immediately hedged are the ones which have a lot of uncertainty tied to
them. Example of this would be PESTLE
Political, Economic, Technology, Social Risk.
Companies can use derivatives and financial instruments to hedge the risk
One way would be is to hedge using the commodities market, futures and options.
An airline company may hedge fuel risk by hedging in the commodity. A multinational company with
lots of export/import may follow the same strategy.
Another strategy would be is to use futures, swaps, options and credit default swaps.
If currency appreciates, the seller of the option makes loss.
Exchange rates denominated in foreign currency/USD go up and the amount needed to purchase the
forward goes up.
If currency depreciates, the seller of the option makes a profit.
Exchange rates denominated in foreign currency/USD go up and the amount needed to purchase the
forward goes down.
Prabhu Ramamoorthy – GM
Appendix B
Should GM deviate from its policy in hedging its CAD exposure? Why or Why not?
Yes, GM should deviate from its policy to account for the balance sheet effect. Hedging must consider
this in addition to operational transactions.
If GMS does deviate from its formal policy for its Cad exposure, how should GM think about whether to
use forwards or options for the deviation from the policy?
GM may increase options in its hedge. This strategy allows GM to sell buy call/options to counter the
effects of the hedge. Rebalance, reassess remain delta neutral.
Why is GM worried about the ARS exposure? What operational decisions could it have made or now
make to manage this exposure?
GM is worried about its ARS exposure because of default and devaluation concerns. Moreover forwards
are predicting a high spike.Forwards are already considering this devaluation effect by prediction that
you could get more Pesos per dollar.
I would minimize ARS denominated assets and increase US hard assets. Hedge using labor. Can ARS
liability be hedged through way of commodities and other hedges. If yes ,explore this aspect.