Grade 8 | Unit 8.4 | Page 9

Unit 8.4Transparency 1

CHANCE, RANDOM PROCESS AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Why is it pointless looking for patterns in the outcomes of games of chance?

• In games of chance the outcomes are uncertain because the outcomes ofthe games are generated by random processes.

• A random process means one in which there is no pattern or system. So,even if you are a very experienced player, you would not be able to knowwhat the outcome will be.

• Thinking that there is a “hidden” pattern, when in fact it is just a randomprocess, is a false belief.

Can you think of examples of an illusion?

• Gamblers who think that they know the pattern or have inside informationor are “lucky” players are mistaken and under the illusion that theycan control the occurrence of a particular outcome. The illusionof control is likely to lead to problem gambling.

Why does Joe think he is lucky?

• Many gamblers have mistaken beliefs. Many gamblers have myths andsuperstitions about improving their luck or being able to know what theoutcome may be. Myths are stories people tell themselves about theworld and superstitions are irrational beliefs that a certain act or ritual(like blowing on the dice) can bring about good luck.

• Superstitions try to connect events generated by random processes. Thereis no connection. Although one event may be associated with another (e.g.rain on Tuesdays), the one event doesn't cause the other. (The fact that itis Tuesday does not cause it to rain!)

• Myths and superstitions about gambling can be both false and misleading,because they give players the false belief of being able to control theselection of the outcome. This in turn means that such players keep ongambling and gambling, falsely believing that if they do certain thingstheir luck will turn.

• If players do win, it's not because of what they did, but because thecalculation of the probability of winning made that outcome likely.

• Let's have a closer look at some of the myths and superstitions that peoplehave.