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8/13/2019 8730146 Alternative Energy by PhD Atta Ur Rahman
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VISION
Economic development is no longerdependent on natural resources(eg.Japan,European countries)
KNOWLEDGEhas now become the maindriving force of world economies andhence the basis of socio-economicdevelopment
INDUSTRIALIZATION is the key to highGDP growth (through production & exportof high value-added goods (engineeringgoods,pharmaceuticals,IT,Biotechnology,etc.)
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The World Today
Over 6 billion people inhabit the earth, an increase of 140
per cent over the past fifty years
One Fifth of humanity survive on less than one dollar a
day
About 1.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water
7.7 million children die before their first birthday
25% of 4,630 mammal species and 11% of 9,675 bird
species are on the verge of complete extinction
20-30% population of Sub-Saharan Africa is HIV positive.
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Living in a Changing World-----
the only constant is change
New biology is decoding the blue print of life,
learning to manage the placement and
expression of genes and mobilizing
microorganisms to do our work for the
production of new products
New innovations are altering and expanding
the notions of development.
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Living in a Changing World
Technology is the great divider---
the rich are getting richer and the
poor, poorer
World is inflicted with poverty,
hunger, disease, conflicts, violence,
& economic uncertainty
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The Growing Gap
Investment in Health Research
Out of over 1,400 new medicines introduced in
clinical use in last 25 years, only 14 were fortropical diseases (poor mansdiseases)
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Exciting Horizons
Genomics---plant and animal structure
The living cellcancer, ageing
Neuroscience, The human brain---the final frontier?
Apoptosis ,structure-function relationships---new species!!
Material Sciences (nano-science)
Alternative energy (Hydrogen fuel cells, biomass-Amsterdam,wind, water, solar)
Robotics, machine intelligence
Dark matter---Higgs boson---birth of universe---black holes
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NANOTECHNOLOGY
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MATERIAL SCIENCES
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MOLECULAR MEDICINE
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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
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SPACE
SCIENCES
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GDP OF ISLAMIC WORLD
THE TOTAL GDP OF ALL OIC MEMBERCOUNTRIES IS ONLY USD 1200bln---LESSTHAN HALF OF GERMANY(USD 2500bln)
AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF JAPAN
(USD 5000bln)!!!----INSPITE OF OURHAVING OVER 70% OF THE WORLDSENERGY RESOURCES AND A QUARTEROF THE WORLDS POPULATION
JAPAN HAS VIRTUALLY NO NATURALRESOURCES BUT OVER 1000 UNIVERSITIES(OVER 120 IN TOKYO ALONE)----IN CONTRASTONLY ABOUT 500 UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMIC
WORLD!!
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Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries
Expenditure on Defense,Health and R & D (Asian OIC Countries)
4.1
1.4
0.3
0
1
2
3
4
5% of GDP
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Expenditure on Defense,Health and R & D (African OIC Countries)
3
2
0.1
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Defense Health R & D
% of GDP
Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries
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Strategy forEconomic Development HE,S&T
11069.2Iran
13919.6Saudi Arabia
1524.4Norway
OIC Countries
95150Pakistan
18565.7Turkey
1745.3Denmark
2088.1Austria
24810.2Belgium
Knowledge Based Economies
GDP(Billion US$)
Population(Million)Country
Source: Human Development Report 2001
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Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan -Transition from Agriculture to
Knowledge-Based Economies
1960 : Over 50% of GDP contributed by
Agriculture.
2000 : Only 5-10% of GDP contributed byAgriculture, Over 50% of GDPcontributed by Engineering Goods,Electronics, etc.
12
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Korea: A Direct Correlation BetweenTechnical Manpower and Exports
1960 1970 1980 1990 2001
Higher Education
Enrollment 5% 8.7% 16% 37.7% 68%
Exports
US$ (Millions) 32 660 17,21 63,212 150,439
10
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It is possible for countries to catch up (eg. East AsianTigers, China etc.)
Chinas Strategy---the Five Pillars
a) Massive Human Resource Development
b) Highest priority to Science & Technology
c) Promotion of Hi-Tech Industries
d) Emphasis on Value-added Agriculturee) Self-reliance in Defense Manufacturing
Last two hundred years: One key lesson:
3
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Manufacturing can be done anywhere
Designing can be done anywhere
INVESTMENT WILL FLOW INTO A COUNTRY ONLY IF ITHAS:
o Manpower with the right skills and productivity
o Infrastructure
o Stable law and order
21st Century is further characterized by twomain ideas:
Based upon Globalization and the Death of PhysicalDistance
4
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In the new century, innovations in science andtechnology will be key not only to health of the
environment but to miraculous improvements in thequality of our lives and advances in theeconomy.
PRESIDENT OF USA
State of the Union Address, Jan 27, 2000
.The three top priorities of my governmentareEDUCATION, EDUCATION & EDUCATION..
Tony Blair
Policy Announcement 2000
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Impact of just one institution----MIT
MIT graduates and faculty have founded4000 companies
Employ: 1.1 million people
Annual Sales: $232 billion
GDP contribution: $116 billion
Collectively these companies are the 24thlargest economy in the World!
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Requirements for sustained
equitable development
Human capital manifested in knowledge andskills
Innovation and entrepreneurship
Macro-economic stability
Strong public institutions
2
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Imperatives for Socio-Economic
Development
Socio-Economic
Development
Central Role of Higher Education/
Technology Development
In National Plans--
VISION!!!!
Linkages Between Applied Research
& Industrial Development
Govt.Facilitating Policies
Quality /Relevance
Of Education/Research
STANDARDS!!
Budgetary Allocations
(Min.2% of GNP)-
The-catch-up game!
Gl b l l ti f bi t h
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Source: Internat ional Service for the Acqu is i t ion o f Agr i -b iotech Appl icat ions
Global plantings of biotech cropsincreased by 12 percent in 2002
58.7
52.6
1.7 11
27.8
44.2
39.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Global Area of GM Crops
M
illionHecta
res
Products on the market 25
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Engineering Goods
WorldMarkets, 2004
US$ (B)
Electronics / Home Appliances / Components 1,500
Pharmaceutical / chemicals 630
Automotive Industry 600Contract Manufacturing / Outsourcing 186
Ceramics 83
Surgical /Electro Medical Instruments 30
Fan Industry 2.6
World Engineering Sector
63% of world trade is in manufactured goods, and electronics hasmajor share of it.
39
WORLD ELECTRONICS
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Major Opportunities: Contract Manufacturing: US$ 186 b (2004), US$ 500 b (2010).
ICTs: ~US$ 130B worldwide
Electronics / Chip Design : US$ 90 b in 2004
Software development :US$ 1300 by 2006
Electronics Services ( call centres, digital archiving)
WORLD ELECTRONICS:
Shift in Markets / Production by Region & Sector
World Markets: 2004: US$ 1500 b; (~90% in N. Amer, EU, Japan)
2006-07: US$ 1900 b: Their share wil l fal l to ~70%
Major Share: Consumer Electronics, Computers, Telecoms.
SHIFT TO CHINA ~22% of world p rodu ct ion in 2004
41
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Pakistan---A Promising Program
S&T Budget increased 6000%!!!
Higher Education budget increased 1,200%!!!
Full support from President of Pakistan
A real beginning after 50 years of lip service
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Overarching Approach
Simultaneous Bi-Modal ApproachRequired
Bottom-UpBasic Health, Primary Education, Water .
Top-DownHigher Education
Technology DevelopmentIndustrial Linkages
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S&T PROGRAMMES
Basic Sciences (physics, maths,chemistry, biology)
Applied Sciences(Engineering,Information Technology, Biotechnology,Material Sciences, Energy etc.)
Entrepreneurship/InnovationIndustrial Parks/Technology Incubators
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HEC Plan of ActionACCESS / QUALITY / RELEVANCE
Faculty Development
Infrastructure(Free Access to LiteratureFree Access to Sophisticated Instruments,Technology Assisted Learning)
Focused Support in Key Areas
Linkages to the Economy
Quality Assurance
Chi
400 Ci i
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822 cities on the Internet
2002
Iran
Afghanistan
India
China
400 Cities on
Optical Fibre
up
from 40, two yearsagoSDH/PDH(525/622 Mb/s)
backbone being
upgraded to
DWDM
10 Gb/s
Going to 600cities and Towns
in the next 12
months
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August 14, 2000
29 Cities
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FASTEST INTERNETSPREAD!!
97% of thepopulation
UNCTAD
report 2003
>35%
ahead of
regional
countries!!
Oct 2003:1600 locations
97% Population Access to
the Internet
UNCTAD Report 2003
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UNCTAD Report 2003Information & Communications Technology development
Index
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
America United Kingdom Japan Korea
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Malaysia Pakistan India Bangladesh
Connectivity Access Policy ICT Diffusion
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Plummeting costs.
Cost /E1
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Mar-0
0
May-00
Jul-0
0
Sep-00
Nov-00
Jan-01
Mar-0
1
May-01
US
$
Cost /E1
Start point
Today
June 2000:US$ 87,000/E1 August 2001:US$ 6,000
October 2004 : US$ 3,800
Aiming for US$ 2,500/2 Mb/s IP!
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Internet user growth
Internet users
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,0001,000,000
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Internet users
Start point
Today
June 2000:130,000 Oct2004: 6,800,000
Actual users
more than 6
Million!
Dial up
C
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Cellular explosion
Cellular Users
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
J
an-95
J
an-96
J
an-97
J
an-98
J
an-99
J
an-00
J
an-01
J
an-02
CellularUsers
Cellular Users
Start point
Today
CPP
Jan 2001:225,000 Oct2004:3, 550,000
Multiplied 500% in the last 18
months as compared to thewhole of the last 11 years
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Paksat 1
Ku Band
C-Band
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PAKSAT 1A major opportunity
PAKSAT 1
A MAJOR COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITEWITH 34 TRANSPONDERS
CAPABLE OF CARRYING 250 TVCHANNELS!!( 4 New TV Channels for
Education!)
BACKBONE FOR PERN (Pakistan
Educational Researh Network)
INCENTIVES TO
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INCENTIVES TOSCIENTISTS/ACADEMICS
RESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY ALLOWANCE(National Ranking System Introduced)
TENURE TRACK SYSTEM(salaries 4 times
that of government ministers !)
MASSIVE RESEARCH FUNDING (upto Usd100,000 per project, USD 600,000 per
international linkage program)
50%REDUCTION OF INCOME TAX
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Faculty DevelopmentDevelop a strong base of Ph.D. level
highly qualified faculty
Indigenous Scholarship Program(200 to1500/yr.)Foreign Faculty Hiring---reversing the braindrain! (249 have returned---others coming!)Foreign Ph.D. Scholarship Program(sending15,000 students for Ph.D. level trainingContractual tenure track system---internationalassessment
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PERN ---App l icat ions
Digital LibraryAccess to Information
Virtual University
Satellite Internet DeliveryRemote Lecture Program
University Information Management
System
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Results
44% Increase in ISI abstractedpublications----rate of increase highest inIslamic world
Young men and women have startedopting to adopt careers in S&T subjects asfirst choice
Landscape of Universities has begun tochange
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Keys to Success
Courage to dream great dreamsand hardwork/tenacity to transform them in to realityIdentifying and grooming the brightest
manpower---merit based systemFocusing on cutting edge technologies inmarket oriented disciplinesMoving fast!but--- sense of urgency must be
combined with striving for perfectionOptimism---Taking failures as challengesFocus----Focus-----Focus !!
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I di t A ti b I t ti l
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ImmediateActionsby InternationalCommunity (contd)
ProvideAccess to International Journals/DataBasesas part of Developmental assistance (oras policy eg.HINARI)
Promote Distance LearningPromote free access to internationallectures/lecture materials( MIT OpenCourseware ) to be replicated
Subsidize publishersfor selling cheap text booksin developing countries
I t ti l C t
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International Comments
Editorial in Nature----29th
January 2004:
Rahman has convinced Musharraf and a deluge of
money and new initiatives has poured out. Ministry of Science
and Technology s annual budget has increased 60 fo ld
compared with 1999; researchers have an opportunity to morethan double their earnings i f they publ ish more in peer-
reviewed journals; funds have been released for many more
Ph.Ds. to be trained at home and abroad; plans are well under
way for a free digital library for all educational institutions;
there is a new scheme to attract researchers from overseas to work inPakistan---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Thank you