A certain gentile asked Rabbi Joshua: “You have festivals ,and we have festivals. We do not rejoice when you do,and you do not rejoice when we do. When do we rejoicetogether?” “When the rain falls,” answered Rabbi Joshua

- Midrash Genesis Rabbah, 13:6

Freshwater Resources and DamFreshwater Resources and DamAtaturk Dam and the Harran Plain, Turkey

•1975 -Dryland agriculture before the dam and reservoir were constructed. •1999 -Greening of the Harran Plain.

•Area population increases 49% during the 1990’s

Water use and demand in Syria, 1950 - 2030

comparative distribution of waterscomparative distribution of waters

COUNTRYCOUNTRY EUPHRATESEUPHRATES TIGRISTIGRIS

TurkeyTurkey 41%41% 22%22%

SyriaSyria 23%23% 1%1%

IraqIraq 36%36% 77%77%

COUNTRYCOUNTRY 19551955 19901990 20252025

TurkeyTurkey 5,9115,911 18,08018,080 46,26046,260

SyriaSyria 3,9673,967 12,35512,355 35,25035,250

IraqIraq 23,85923,859 55,99155,991 92,88192,881

Population (in 1000s)

per capita water availability (mper capita water availability (m33))

COUNTRYCOUNTRY 19551955 19901990 20252025

TurkeyTurkey 1844118441 60296029 23562356

SyriaSyria 65006500 20872087 732732

IraqIraq 85098509 36263626 21862186

Contribution to and withdrawal from the Euphrates River, 2000

TOTAL ANNUAL FLOW = 35.58 billion cu.m.TOTAL ANNUAL FLOW = 35.58 billion cu.m.

CountryCountry ContributionContribution WithdrawalWithdrawal DependencyDependency

TurkeyTurkey 88%88% 18.42 bcm18.42 bcm LowLow

SyriaSyria 12%12% 11.3 bcm11.3 bcm HighHigh

IraqIraq 00 23 bcm23 bcm MedMed

TOTALTOTAL 100%100% 52.72 bcm!!!!52.72 bcm!!!!

HydropoliticsHydropolitics

Intermittent negotiations and technical Intermittent negotiations and technical discussions (50 years), but no agreement discussions (50 years), but no agreement on a treaty to:on a treaty to:– ““Share” water (Syria and Iraq terms)Share” water (Syria and Iraq terms)– ““Allocate” water (Turkey)Allocate” water (Turkey)

Turkey’s Southeast Anatolia Project Turkey’s Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP)(GAP)

$32 billion US$32 billion US

22 dams; 19 hydro plants; 25 irrigation systems22 dams; 19 hydro plants; 25 irrigation systems

Various past tensions: 1975 construction of Various past tensions: 1975 construction of dam and Lake Assad – Iraq threatened to attack dam and Lake Assad – Iraq threatened to attack SyriaSyria

Concern over Turkey’s activities resulted in an Concern over Turkey’s activities resulted in an agreement (1990) whereby Syria gets 42% and agreement (1990) whereby Syria gets 42% and Iraq 58% of Euphrates water entering Syria Iraq 58% of Euphrates water entering Syria (regardless of amount)(regardless of amount)

Rivers treated separately, even though Rivers treated separately, even though they merge in Iraq to form Shatt-al-Arabthey merge in Iraq to form Shatt-al-ArabJoint technical committee established in Joint technical committee established in 1980 (Syria joined in 1983), but 1980 (Syria joined in 1983), but suspended when Iraq invaded Kuwait in suspended when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990.1990.Ataturk Dam increased Turkey’s irrigated Ataturk Dam increased Turkey’s irrigated area by 20%; diversion will take 1/3 of area by 20%; diversion will take 1/3 of Euphrates flowEuphrates flow

Tacit agreement that Turkey will supply Tacit agreement that Turkey will supply 500 cu m/sec to Syria. This is occurring 500 cu m/sec to Syria. This is occurring (so far)(so far)

Turkey release 50% of natural flow… not Turkey release 50% of natural flow… not unreasonableunreasonable

Arabs want equitable (1/3) apportionment Arabs want equitable (1/3) apportionment to each countryto each country

Turkey and the UN ConventionTurkey and the UN Convention

UN Convention should only have set out UN Convention should only have set out general guidelines and not specific general guidelines and not specific mechanisms.mechanisms.

UN Convention should have established UN Convention should have established that the principle of equitable and that the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization took precedence reasonable utilization took precedence over the obligation not to cause significant over the obligation not to cause significant harmharm

New agreement with Israel for technical New agreement with Israel for technical cooperation, training, water export and cooperation, training, water export and military hardware…military hardware…

In this context, Syrian support for PKK (the In this context, Syrian support for PKK (the Kurdish people’s party) upset Turkey Kurdish people’s party) upset Turkey (threatened to “turn off taps”)… overall, (threatened to “turn off taps”)… overall, resulted in 30,000 killed (1984-1998)resulted in 30,000 killed (1984-1998)

Mesopotamian MarshlandsMesopotamian Marshlands

Saddam Hussein drained most of the Saddam Hussein drained most of the marshlands in the 1990s and 400,000 marshlands in the 1990s and 400,000 people (or more) were displace (all Shiia)people (or more) were displace (all Shiia)

Marshlands straddle Iraq and Iran; there Marshlands straddle Iraq and Iran; there are oil fields; now some agriculture.are oil fields; now some agriculture.

Iraqi marshlands reduced to 9% of its Iraqi marshlands reduced to 9% of its original size; now back to 30% or moreoriginal size; now back to 30% or more

Agricultural development in or near the marshlands

Title

Body text

Mesopotamian Marshland, Iraq and Mesopotamian Marshland, Iraq and Iran: Demise of an EcosystemIran: Demise of an Ecosystem

1973-2000: Most of the wetlands disappeared

Title

Body text

Water Returns to the Mesopotamian Water Returns to the Mesopotamian MarshlandsMarshlands

Greening of some of the Marshlands in recent years.

Next stepsNext steps

Multi-stakeholder meetingsMulti-stakeholder meetings

Develop governance structures (federal; Develop governance structures (federal; governate(3); district(57); and NGOsgovernate(3); district(57); and NGOs

Develop a broader master plan with socio-Develop a broader master plan with socio-economic componentseconomic components

But… where is the government? Will But… where is the government? Will there be a civil war? What happens to the there be a civil war? What happens to the marshlands?marshlands?