A Climate of Controversy –

The Danger of Scientific

Illiteracy in a Changing World

West Central Florida AMS Local Chapter Hillsborough Community College

Presented by Prof. James Wysong, Jr.

Don’t Believe Everything You

Think

But think about everything you believe – then ask yourself why?

Who is this curious fellow?

The Questions at Hand:

Why is scientific illiteracy dangerous?

Why do so many people believe in

nonsense? (and reject rational ideas in the

process)

What is the role of professionals, including

meteorologists and educators in

combating this problem?

Why do you believe what you do?

What is Science?

In its simplest definition, science is a way

of knowing. The word comes down to us

from the Latin word scientia – meaning "to

know."

Science and Superstition

For the greatest part of human history, people

lived in ignorance of the workings of the

natural world that surrounded them. The world

of our ancestors was often a cruel and

mysterious place.

The Power of Science

Science today offers explanations for

phenomena.

It makes predictions that guide us in the

quest for further understanding.

It is a self-correcting, ever-compounding

means of gaining knowledge about the

universe that we inhabit.

Mistakes will happen

Paradigms will change

“All our science, measured against reality,

is primitive and childlike – and yet it is the

most precious thing we have.”

Albert Einstein

Einstein’s words remind us that science

does not have all the answers. We still

have much to learn. Science shows us the

way to knowing, it is, as the late Carl

Sagan referred to it, “A candle in the dark".

Does science threaten our beliefs?

What scares some people about the findings of science is the same thing that scares them about the truth in many other matters – it may differ from what we have already decided to believe.

The philosopher Henre Poincare observed: “We also know how cruel the truth often is, and we wonder whether delusion is not more consoling.”

“The first principle is

that you must not

fool yourself and you

are the easiest person

to fool.”Dr. Richard Feynman

Nobel Laureate

What Don’t We Like About Science?

We like certainty – science often only gives us probabilities.

We like simple answers, but that’s not always what we get from science.

Sometimes scientific answers are counterintuitive – and we don’t like that!

Yes! Humid air

really is lighter!

An educated person is one who has

learned that information almost

always turns out to be at best

incomplete and very often false,

misleading, fictitious, mendacious -

just dead wrong.

Russell Baker

What is the basis of our beliefs?

We seldom “choose” our religion or political

ideology – we are born into it.

When it comes to scientific evidence on

societal risks “people endorse which

position reinforces their connection to

others with whom they share important

commitments.”

Dan Kahan in Nature (1/20/2010, 463, 296-297) - The Psychology of the Resistance to Social Change Thinking

What is the basis of our beliefs?

This leads to adopting “no thinking required” “positions” (on the Left and the Right)

Alternatively, we “cherry pick” data to support a priori beliefs.

In particular, the Internet has increased the incidence of selective exposure, (more commonly called confirmation bias or biased assimilation).1

1 True Enough: Learning to Live in a Post-Fact Society

by Farhad Manjoo (Wiley, 2008)

Wouldn’t it be nice if……?

That’s what science and critical thinking are for.

“He that cannot reason is a fool.

He that will not is a bigot.

He that dare not is a slave.”

Andrew Carnegie

Communication or Obfuscation

Doubt – the double-edged sword

“Fair and Balanced” - Should we always

frame things as a debate? Why?

Are you listening, or waiting to talk?

You might not be wrong – but are you

right?

The intelligent

man finds

almost

everything

ridiculous, the

sensible man

almost nothing. Johann Wolfgang

von Goethe

Ignorance is bliss, sensibility is

comfortable, informed skepticism can be

unsettling.

Where do people get their news? Is

this also where they get their views?

Another brick in the wall…….Roger Waters wrote this about his views on formal education. He hated his

grammar school teachers and felt they were more interested in keeping the

kids quiet than teaching them to think.

We don’t need no education

(OH YES WE DO!)

The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 4-5, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling

error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

Public Perceptions

59 percent1 are convinced that global

warming is happening.

39 percent2 now believe that global

warming is caused mainly by human

activities

42 percent3 believe it is caused mostly by

natural changes in the environment.

As compared to 2007 data from a similar survey:1 Down from 71% in 2007 2 Down from 69% 3Up from 29%

Public Perceptions

48 percent believe that there is consensus

among the scientific community.

40 percent believe there is a lot of

disagreement among scientists over

whether global warming is occurring.

American Opinions on Global Warming: Summary

A Yale University / Gallup / ClearVision Institute Poll - 2007

Principal Investigator: Dr. Anthony Leiserowitz - School of Forestry & Environmental

Studies Yale University

Perspective on public beliefs:

42% believe in ghosts

32% believe in UFOs

26% believe in astrology

23% believe in witches

20% believe in reincarnation – that they

were once another person.

Harris Poll of 2,303 adults surveyed online between November 2 and 11, 2009 by Harris Interactive.

“Everybody needs to believe in something….I

believe I’ll have another drink” W.C. Fields

A thought as Halloween approaches:

More Americans believe in ghosts than

Anthropogenic Climate Change (can we

presume that they feel the evidence is

more conclusive?)

Now that’s spooky!

AMS and NWA T.V. Meteorologists

54 percent indicated that global warming is

happening.

31 percent reported that global warming is

caused mostly by human activities

63 percent reported it is caused mostly by

natural changes in the environment.

Maibach, E., Wilson, K & Witte, J. (2010) A National Survey of Television

Meteorologists about Climate Change: Preliminary Findings. George Mason University.

Fairfax, VA: Center for Climate Change Communication.

Credentials of respondents:

A.M.S. –CBM seal: 28.7%, A.M.S. Seal of Approval: 55%, N.W.A. Seal of Approval: 33.3%

AMS and NWA T.V. Meteorologists

93 percent said they are fairly or very well

informed about the causes of global warming.

30 percent said they could easily change their

mind about global warming.

27 percent agreed with the statement by a

prominent TV weathercaster1: “global warming is

a scam.”

Maibach, E., Wilson, K & Witte, J. (2010) A National Survey of Television

Meteorologists about Climate Change: Preliminary Findings. George Mason University.

Fairfax, VA: Center for Climate Change Communication.

John Coleman – Co-founder of the

Weather Channel™

Some data to consider:

A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National

Academy of Sciences of the United States reviewed

publication and citation data for 1,372 climate

researchers and resulted in the following two

conclusions:

(i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively

publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC

(Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and

(ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific

prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are

substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

Some Concluding Thoughts:

We are human, and inherently subject to

biases and irrationality – we have to guard

against this.

Opinions are fine – when labeled as such.

In the professions where we enjoy the

public’s trust, we must exercise great care.

We must keep thinking!

“My idea of education is to unsettle the

minds of the young and inflame their

intellects.”Robert Maynard Hutchins

Thank You for Your Kind

Attention –

please keep thinking.

Jim Wysong