A Conceptual Systemic Framework Proposal for Sustainable Technology Development:

Incorporating Future Studies within a Co-Evolutionary Approach

byA. İdil Gaziulusoy, Ph.D. Candidate

Co-authorDr. Carol Boyle

The University of AucklandInternational Centre for

Sustainability Engineering and Research

FEBRUARY 2007

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Introduction

SUSTAINABILITY

ECONOMY

SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT WHAT?

conceptual priority: society

operational priority: environment

WHEN?

long-term planning

as operational context widens the length of time increases

Sustainability is a “moving target” (Hjorth & Bagheri, 2006).

Global Meta-System

X

X

X

X

XX

X

X

X

Operational Context N

Operational Context 3

Operational Context 2

Operational Context 1

local

Influence path

Feed-back path

present future

global

Time

Siz

e o

f th

e O

per

atio

nal

Co

nte

xt

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Introduction

TEMPORAL-SPATIAL FRAME

Introduction

COMPLEXITY

“A crucial assumption of reductionism” is that we can break complex systems into parts and study these in isolation (Linstone, 1999).

Frog Science

versus

Bicycle Science

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

IntroductionCO-EVOLUTION

Environment

Society

Economy

market operations

technology

industry

animals

humans

companies

ecosystems

Environment

Society

Economy COMPLEX

ADAPTIVE

SYSTEMS

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

EXTENT:RADICAL

“Solutions are needed that break existing trends in current development processes.” (Weaver, Jansen, van Grootveld, van Spiegel, & Vergragt, 2000)

Present technological paradigm

New technological paradigm

Sustainable Technology Development

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Sustainable Technology Development

CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING

Technological Paradigm

technology

economy society

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING

Regulatory push/pull

Environmental

Cleff & Rennings (1999); Rennings (2000)

Innovations

Market pull

Technology push

Sustainable Technology Development

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

CONTEXT:CO-EVOLVING

Technology Economy

Society

Environment

GOVERNANCE

“Successful action depends on a combination of advances in scientific understanding, appropriate political programmes, social reforms and other institutional changes, as well as on the scale and direction of new investment. Organisational and social innovations would always have to accompany any technical innovations and some would have to come first” (Freeman, 1992)

Sustainable Technology Development

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Incorporating Future Studies

RELEVANCE

Planning for sustainable technology development should:•Have a long-term coverage;•Be able to address complexity;•Be able to deal with co-evolutionary change both as a result and as a cause; •Should allow continuous feedback, reassessment and adjustment to cope with dynamic characteristics and changing requirements of sustainability concept; and•Provide creative vision to guide the innovation path towards radical change.GAZIULUSOY

February 2007

RELEVANCE

Future StudiesEngineering

Sustainable Developmen

t

STD

Sustainability ScienceSustainability

Engineering

Technology Development

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Incorporating Future Studies

BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOL

Future?

Present

Incremental improvement # 1

Incremental improvement # 2

FORECASTING

Pla

nn

ing

ST

EP

# 1

Increm

ental C

han

ge

Incremental improvement # 3

Incremental improvement # ?

Present

FutureSUSTAINABILITY

BACKCASTING

Foresighting STEP # 1

Bac

kcas

tin

g S

TE

P #

2 Rad

ical Ch

ang

e

Milestone # 1

Milestone # 2

Milestone # 3

Milestone # N

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Incorporating Future Studies

BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOLBackcasting is useful:

• when the problem to be studied is complex;

• many sectors and levels of society are involved;

• when there is a need for major change since dominant trends are part of the problem; and

• when the time horizon is long enough to allow considerable scope for deliberate choice (Dreborg, 1996)

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Incorporating Future Studies

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

X

X

sector/

X

X

X

Influence path

Feed-back path

present future

Time

Siz

e o

f th

e O

per

atio

nal

Co

nte

xt Policy development

Institutional innovations

Social/cultural innovations

Organisational innovations

Technological innovations

company

country

X

X

X

local

X

X

X

X

X

X

Operational Context N

Operational Context 3

Operational Context 2

Operational Context 1

Influence path

Feed-back path

present future

global

Time

Siz

e o

f th

e O

per

atio

nal

Co

nte

xt

Incorporating Future Studies

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Socio-Economic DomainSocio-Technical Domain

(Socio-)Techno-Economic Domain“INDUSTRY”

GOVERNANCE

Technology Economy

Society

Environment

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Incorporating Future Studies

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

INDUSTRY

Institutional and Social Innovations

Policy/LegislationPublic AwarenessStakeholder Demand

Company VisionCompetitiveness

Shareholder Values

New Values

Organisational Innovations

Technological Innovations

New Capabilities New Competencies

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

Incorporating Future Studies

CONCLUSION

GAZIULUSOY February 2007

• Shift in the technological paradigm is needed;

• Incorporating future studies into technology planning can facilitate this shift;

• When planning for technologies co-evolutionary aspects of innovation should be considered;

• Backcasting is promising as a normative and analytical meta-tool for planning within a co-evolutionary approach;

• In a backcastıng exercise policy development should cover the longest time span to overlook and link institutional, social/cultural, organisational and technological innovations.