A Contrarian Discussion Science is a tool to study the Universe and it is not necessarily the study...
If you can't read please download the document
A Contrarian Discussion Science is a tool to study the Universe and it is not necessarily the study of truth. In fact, scientists adopt the best hypothesis
A Contrarian Discussion Science is a tool to study the Universe
and it is not necessarily the study of truth. In fact, scientists
adopt the best hypothesis available even if there are serious flaws
within that idea. Experimental Data is Crucial.
Slide 2
Part 1 First in Last Out
Slide 3
James Lovelock & Gaia "Life, or the biosphere, regulates or
maintains the climate and the atmospheric composition at an optimum
for itself. - James Lovelock
Slide 4
Another Hypothesis? CO2 Levels are increasing. This is of
serious concern because these increases may lead to climate changes
that have unintended negative consequences. The cause of the
increase is human induced; however not from the direct burning of
fossil fuel. Only 16% of the increase in CO2 can be attributed to
Fossil Fuels, leaving a large unknown source. Increasing
atmospheric CO2 levels is the indirect result of the industrial
production and addition of various Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Carbon
fertilizers to the biosphere. These fertilizers increase Net
Primary Productivity which leads to more plant growth and more CO2.
There is more rapid cycling of CO2 from the atmosphere into plant
growth via photosynthesis and back again through respiration. A
possible CO2 source is symbiotic mycorrhizal bioerosion of
limestone in Karst Geology by deep tree roots. These soil microbes
release CO2 from the rocks to the plant roots and ultimately to the
atmosphere. Other sources are not ruled out, such as ocean
upwelling or direct carbonic acid limestone erosion. There is no
obvious remedy for this situation without starving billions of
people.
Slide 5
Bioerosion of Terrestrial Limestone is Consistent with dC13 of
-8 mil in Atmosphere Ocean Surface = -10 0 / 00 Why is atm. dC13
greater than dC13 of reservoirs?
Slide 6
Also, On time-scales of ~100 years, there are only two
reservoirs that can naturally exchange large quantities of CO2 with
the atmosphere: the oceans and the land biosphere (forests and
soils). The mass of carbon (carbon is the C in CO2) must be
conserved. If the atmospheric CO2 increase was caused, even in
part, by carbon emitted from the oceans or the land, we would
measure a carbon decrease in these two reservoirs. - Corinne Le
Qur, University of East Anglia (7 June 2005)
www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the-
recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to-human-activities/
Slide 7
Plant Foliage is Increasing Impact of CO 2 fertilization on
maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments
Randall J. Donohue 1,*, Michael L. Roderick 2,3,4, Tim R. McVicar
1, Graham D. Farquhar 2 Article first published online: 19 JUN 2013
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50563 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights
Reserved. 1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe
over recent decades. The role in this greening of the CO 2
fertilization effectthe enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising
CO 2 levelsis yet to be established. The direct CO 2 effect on
vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid
environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation
growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase
in atmospheric CO 2 (19822010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green
foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations,
analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show
that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our
results confirm that the anticipated CO 2 fertilization effect is
occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the
carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant
land surface process.
Slide 8
A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the Worlds Forests Yude
Pan 1 Yude Pan 1,*, et al* 1 U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest
Service, Newtown Square, PA 19073, USA. Abstract The terrestrial
carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and
location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and
long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink
of 2.4 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year 1 ) globally for
1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 0.7 Pg C year 1 from
tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical
deforestation emission of 2.9 0.5 Pg C year 1 partially compensated
by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 0.5 Pg C year
1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1
0.8 Pg C year 1, with tropical estimates having the largest
uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in
magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel
emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric
sinks. Published Online July 14 2011 Science 19 August 2011: Vol.
333 no. 6045 pp. 988-993 DOI: 10.1126/science.1201609
Slide 9
Saving Gaias Life! - Avoiding Snowball Earth
Slide 10
James Lovelock The world doesn't change its climate
conveniently
Slide 11
Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability Thomas
J. Crowley 1 & William T. Hyde 2 Climate in the early
Pleistocene 1 varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to
variations in Earths obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability
increased and oscillated primarily at a period of 100 kyr,
suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earths
orbit. This transition has often 25 been attributed to a non-linear
response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we
propose that increasing variability within the past million years
may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second
climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to
a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern
Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years
can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earths
climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled
energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the
future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian
ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to
be the albedo discontinuity at the snowice edge. The best- fit
model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice
volume 6 during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in
the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should
it be attained, this state would be more symmetric than the present
climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each
hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years
of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial
climates.
http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/homes/tcrowley/crowley_Nature08_iceages.pdf
Slide 12
Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences Rothman,
Daniel H. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99, 4167-4171 CO2
Levels throughout Geological History Trend
Slide 13
Planet Earth Temperature Cooling Trend Ice Ages Pleistocene
Extinctions due to Low CO2
Slide 14
Ice Ages, Extinction and CO2 Mapping of past vegetation must
have at least some reference to the present world concepts of
vegetation types if the maps are to be meaningful. It is true that
in many areas during the LGM, the vegetation species were combined
that normally grow well apart from one another in separate
vegetation/ecosystem zones and eras. The most striking example is
the steppe-tundra (Tallis 1990) which brought together species of
modern-day steppe and tundra vegetation respectively. To a lesser
extent, the same is true of much of early and mid Holocene
vegetation of the world. The possible reasons for why such
unfamiliar combinations of species occurred in the past are many
and varied. Shifting combinations of climatic parameters may have
produced climates which suited the independent requirements of
species that do not presently overlap in distribution. Changed
atmospheric CO 2 levels in the past might also have produced
unfamiliar combinations of species. In the case of the
steppe-tundra of the LGM, the difference from present vegetation is
suggested here as being too great to fit into any of the standard
present-day vegetation categories. Instead, a separate category is
created especially for it. Such 'lumping' of past vegetation into
present-day categories is a necessary evil which may ultimately be
avoidable as more and more detailed knowledge of relationships
between species composition and ecological parameters such as
carbon storage accumulates in the future. However for the present
study the 'lumping' process is to some extent unavoidable.
Slide 15
C4 Plants Evolved Recently to adapt to decreasing CO2
Levels
Slide 16
Review: CO2 is a fertilizer C3 & C4 v. CO2 Concentration
Compensation Point (180ppm)
Slide 17
PaleoCO 2 Change
Slide 18
North America ca 12kYa
Slide 19
North America Satellite view 12kya
Slide 20
The Pleistocene Ice Ages are a Continuing and Recurring Global
Catastrophe! Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinctions occurred 12Kyr ago
which Include Pre-Clovis Humans in North America
Slide 21
Reversing Geological History The Human Race is extracting
fossil fuels at an unprecedented rate. It has the effect of running
Geological history backwards. CO2 levels are approaching levels
last seen during the Miocene Era. This is causing a Sixth
Extinction event because Nature does not have time to equilibrate
and allow for different species to adapt. "The Sixth Extinction: An
Unnatural History Elizabeth Kolbert
Slide 22
Cenozoic CO 2 history
Slide 23
Global Warming Argument Cant Go Forward; Cant go Back Pro GW
Warmer Planet Species Go Extinct Tuvalu, NY, Bangladesh &
Florida are Flooded More Diseases World War Plants Grow Bigger
& Better More Terrestrial Biodiversity Catastrophe Behind Anti
GW Cooler Planet Species Go Extinct Canada, Northern Europe, US
& Siberia are under Ice More Diseases Middle Ages & War
Crop Failures (Little Ice Age) Less Terrestrial Biodiversity
Catastrophe Ahead
Slide 24
GeoEngineering to Reverse Global Warming? Lets assume that it
is possible. To what Geological Era (Eden) will we return? What if
you go to far? How do we control it, especially if we are wrong?
How does this save species? There is no equilibrium and
reversibility on Gaia.
Slide 25
James Lovelock Trying to save the planet is a lot of nonsense -
Because we cant do it....
Slide 26
How to Solve via Engineering Repair or Formulate a New Model
Make & Test with Computer Models Design an Engineering
Prototype (BioSphere 3) Test, Tinker and Control
Slide 27
Experimental Data is Crucial BioSphere3 The First Experiments
Failed because the Atmosphere could not be modeled or controlled!
First, Simulate the Earth without Humans; Test, Tinker and Control
Build without Concrete or Limestone Build Two Facilities 1. Testing
2. Control Operate for Many Years like ISS Necessary to understand
the GCC and the Earth Also, necessary for Deep Space Exploration
After Many Years and Equilibration add Humans Biosphere 2
Slide 28
James Lovelock & Gaia Enjoy life while you can!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8594000/8594561.stm
Slide 29
Part 2 Additional Foundation
Slide 30
Fubar What is broken in the GCC
Slide 31
IPCC Hypothesis CO2 levels are increasing due primarily to
fossil fuel combustion. Nearly all of the recent atmospheric
increase of CO2 is due to fossil fuel combustion. The increase will
lead to increased global temperatures, melting glaciers and
subsequent extinctions. The Global Cost is estimated to be $17
Trillion and the cure is to drastically reduce fossil fuel
use.
Slide 32
2010 Data Fossil Fuel CombustionAtmospheric Increase 9.1
Gt4.2Gt = 2.1ppm 4.9 Gt of CO2 is missing The IPCC Hypothesis is
false because if all of the CO2 from Fossil Fuel Combustion went
into the atmosphere then the Atmospheric Concentration should have
increased by 4.0ppm.
www.tyndall.ac.uk/global-carbon-budget-2010
Slide 33
Effects of Land-Use Change on the Carbon Balance of Terrestrial
Ecosystems Houghton & Goodale 2004 1980s1990s Fossil Fuel
Emissions5.4 +/- 0.36.3 +/- 0.4 Atmospheric Increase3.3 +/- 0.13.2
+/- 0.2 Oceanic Uptake-1.7 +/- 0.6-2.4 +/- 0.7 Net Terrestrial
Flux-0.4 +/- 0.7-0.7 +/- 0.8 Land Use Change2.0 +/- 0.82.2 +/- 0.8
Residual Terrestrial Flux Aka Missing Sink -2.4 +/- 1.1-2.9 +/-
1.1
Slide 34
IPCC AR4 Model Figure 7.3. The global carbon cycle for the
1990s, showing the main annual fluxes in GtC yr 1 : pre-industrial
natural fluxes in black and anthropogenic fluxes in red (modified
from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from
Sabine et al., 2004a). The net terrestrial loss of 39 GtC is
inferred from cumulative fossil fuel emissions minus atmospheric
increase minus ocean storage. The loss of 140 GtC from the
vegetation, soil and detritus compartment represents the cumulative
emissions from land use change (Houghton, 2003), and requires a
terrestrial biosphere sink of 101 GtC (in Sabine et al., given only
as ranges of 140 to 80 GtC and 61 to 141 GtC, respectively; other
uncertainties given in their Table 1). Net anthropogenic exchanges
with the atmosphere are from Column 5 AR4 in Table 7.1. Gross
fluxes generally have uncertainties of more than 20% but fractional
amounts have been retained to achieve overall balance when
including estimates in fractions of GtC yr 1 for riverine
transport, weathering, deep ocean burial, etc. GPP is annual gross
(terrestrial) primary production. Atmospheric carbon content and
all cumulative fluxes since 1750 are as of end 1994. Table 7.1
Violates 2 nd Law of Thermodynamics 1.
Slide 35
What percentage of the CO 2 in the atmosphere has been produced
by human beings through the burning of fossil fuels? CDIAC Answer:
Anthropogenic CO 2 comes from fossil fuel combustion, changes in
land use (e.g., forest clearing), and cement manufacture. Houghton
and Hackler have estimated land-use changes from 1850-2000, so it
is convenient to use 1850 as our starting point for the following
discussion. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations had not changed
appreciably over the preceding 850 years (IPCC; The Scientific
Basis) so it may be safely assumed that they would not have changed
appreciably in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000 in the absence of
human intervention.Houghton and HacklerIPCC; The Scientific Basis
In the following calculations, we will express atmospheric
concentrations of CO 2 in units of parts per million by volume
(ppmv). Each ppmv represents 2.13 X10 15 grams, or 2.13 petagrams
of carbon (PgC) in the atmosphere. According to Houghton and
Hackler, land-use changes from 1850-2000 resulted in a net transfer
of 154 PgC to the atmosphere. During that same period, 282 PgC were
released by combustion of fossil fuels, and 5.5 additional PgC were
released to the atmosphere from cement manufacture. This adds up to
154 + 282 + 5.5 = 441.5 PgC, of which 282/444.1 = 64% is due to
fossil-fuel combustion.Houghton and Hacklercombustion of fossil
fuels Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations rose from 288 ppmv in 1850 to
369.5 ppmv in 2000, for an increase of 81.5 ppmv, or 174 PgC. In
other words, about 40% (174/441.5) of the additional carbon has
remained in the atmosphere, while the remaining 60% has been
transferred to the oceans and terrestrial biosphere.288 ppmv in
1850369.5 ppmv in 2000 The 369.5 ppmv of carbon in the atmosphere,
in the form of CO 2, translates into 787 PgC, of which 174 PgC has
been added since 1850. From the second paragraph above, we see that
64% of that 174 PgC, or 111 PgC, can be attributed to fossil-fuel
combustion. This represents about 14% (111/787) of the carbon in
the atmosphere in the form of CO 2. See Also, Corinne Le Queres
Response:
www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the-recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to-
human-activities/ 1.
Slide 36
Also, On time-scales of ~100 years, there are only two
reservoirs that can naturally exchange large quantities of CO2 with
the atmosphere: the oceans and the land biosphere (forests and
soils). The mass of carbon (carbon is the C in CO2) must be
conserved. If the atmospheric CO2 increase was caused, even in
part, by carbon emitted from the oceans or the land, we would
measure a carbon decrease in these two reservoirs. - Corinne Le
Qur, University of East Anglia (7 June 2005)
www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the-
recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to-human-activities/ 1.
Slide 37
Refresher: Mean Lifetime Mean lifetime If the decaying
quantity, N(t), is the number of discrete elements in a certain
set, it is possible to compute the average length of time that an
element remains in the set. This is called the mean lifetime (or
simply the lifetime or the exponential time constant), , and it can
be shown that it relates to the decay rate, , in the following
way:settime constantcan be shown The mean lifetime can be looked at
as a "scaling time", because we can write the exponential decay
equation in terms of the mean lifetime, , instead of the decay
constant, : We can see that is the time at which the population of
the assembly is reduced to 1/e = 0.367879441 times its initial
value.1/e = 0.367879441 E.g., if the initial population of the
assembly, N(0), is 1000, then at time , the population, N(), is
368. A very similar equation will be seen below, which arises when
the base of the exponential is chosen to be 2, rather than e. In
that case the scaling time is the "half-life".
Slide 38
AR4 Table 2.14 2.
Slide 39
Computer Model Kinetics (CO 2 )*= a 0 + a i e t/i Where a 0 =
0.217, a 1 = 0.259, a 2 = 0.338, a 3 = 0.186, 1 = 172.9 years, 2 =
18.51 years, and 3 = 1.186 years. Area Under Curve = a 3 / 3 + a 2
/ 2 + a 1 / 1 + . 100% = (0.186/1.186) + (0.338/18.51) +
(0.259/172.9) 100% = 88.7% + 10.4% + 0.9% *Technical Summary of the
Fourth Assessment Report. The equation used in the computer models
that describe CO 2 removal is on page 213 of Chapter 2 in Note a:
Yearly Turnover: 800Gt/1.186 = 675Gt/yr 2.
Computer Model Kinetics Assume Open System (CO 2 )*= a 0 + a i
e t/i Where a 0 = 0.217, a 1 = 0.259, a 2 = 0.338, a 3 = 0.186, 1 =
172.9 years, 2 = 18.51 years, and 3 = 1.186 years. Area Under Curve
= a 3 / 3 + a 2 / 2 + a 1 / 1 + . 100% = (0.186/1.186) +
(0.338/18.51) + (0.259/172.9) 100% = 88.7% + 10.4% + 0.9%
*Technical Summary of the Fourth Assessment Report. The equation
used in the computer models that describe CO 2 removal is on page
213 of Chapter 2 in Note a: This CO 2 is gone from the air in 3
years/ ~3 half-lives 3.
Slide 42
7.3.1.2P512 Consistent with the response function to a CO2
pulse from the Bern Carbon Cycle Model (see footnote (a) of Table
2.14), about 50% of an increase in atmospheric CO2 will be removed
within 30 years, a further 30% will be removed within a few
centuries and the remaining 20% may remain in the atmosphere for
many thousands of years (Prentice et al., 2001; Archer, 2005; see
also Sections 7.3.4.2 and 10.4) From AR4 3.
Slide 43
3.2.2.1 Background Higher plants acquire CO2 by diffusion
through tiny pores (stomata) into leaves and thus to the sites of
photosynthesis. The total amount of CO2 that dissolves in leaf
water amounts to about 270 PgC/yr, i.e., more than one-third of all
the CO2 in the atmosphere (Farquhar et al., 1993; Ciais et al.,
1997). This quantity is measurable because this CO2 has time to
exchange oxygen atoms with the leaf water and is imprinted with the
corresponding 18O signature (Francey and Tans, 1987; Farquhar et
al., 1993). Most of this CO2 diffuses out again without
participating in photosynthesis. The amount that is fixed from the
atmosphere, i.e., converted from CO2 to carbohydrate during
photosynthesis, is known as gross primary production (GPP).
Terrestrial GPP has been estimated as about 120 PgC/yr based on 18O
measurements of atmospheric CO2 (Ciais et al., 1997). This is also
the approximate value necessary to support observed plant growth,
assuming that about half of GPP is incorporated into new plant
tissues such as leaves, roots and wood, and the other half is
converted back to atmospheric CO2 by autotrophic respiration
(respiration by plant tissues) (Lloyd and Farquhar, 1996; Waring et
al., 1998). Annual plant growth is the difference between
photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, and is referred to as
net primary production (NPP). NPP has been measured in all major
ecosystem types by sequential harvesting or by measuring plant
biomass (Hall et al., 1993). Global terrestrial NPP has been
estimated at about 60 PgC/yr through integration of field
measurements (Table 3.2) (Atjay et al., 1979; Saugier and Roy,
2001). Estimates from remote sensing and atmospheric CO2 data
(Ruimy et al., 1994; Knorr and Heimann, 1995) concur with this
value, although there are large uncertainties in all methods.
Eventually, virtually all of the carbon fixed in NPP is returned to
the atmospheric CO2 pool through two processes: heterotrophic
respiration (Rh) by decomposers (bacteria and fungi feeding on dead
tissue and exudates) and herbivores; and combustion in natural or
human-set fires (Figure 3.1d). From TAR Farquharson et al. 3.
Slide 44
Francey & Tans 1987 Latitudinal variation in oxygen-18 of
atmospheric CO 2 Roger J. Francey * & Pieter P. Tans * CSIRO
Division of Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria 3195,
Australia Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental
Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado/NOAA, Boulder, Colorado
80309, USA This report provides information on a potentially
important new atmospheric tracer of large-scale behaviour at the
Earth's surface, the oxygen isotope composition of CO 2. We use
measurements on flask air collected from Alaska, Hawaii, Samoa,
Tasmania, coastal Antarctica and the South Pole. Recently, we
examined 198284 measurements of 18 O in CO 2 extracted in situ from
marine air at Cape Grim, Tasmania 1. Here we report on a comparison
of Cape Grim flask and in situ data that gives a measure of
precision and serves to demonstrate a marked improvement over
previous infrequent measurements. While previous data 2,3 suggests
a north-south gradient, our flask data establish a strong,
asymmetric meridional gradient. We argue that this reflects the
oxygen isotope ratio in ground water, via mechanisms involving
gross catalysed CO 2 exchange with leaf (and possibly soil) water.
Very large CO 2 fluxes are involved, of the order of 200 Gt carbon
(C) yr 1. 3.
Slide 45
Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide Corinne Le
Qur, Michael R. Raupach, Josep G. Canadell, Gregg Marland et al. 24
Nature Geoscience 2, 831 - 836 (2009) 24 Time Year Fossil fuel +
Cement Land Use Change Atmospheric Growth Ocean Sink Land Sink
2004.57.781.023.352.353.09 2005.58.0915.122.441.53
2006.58.3513.82.463.09 2007.58.540.954.52.522.47
2008.58.750.943.842.343.51 2009.58.630.883.462.473.57
2010.59.140.875.012.312.69 5. Example of CO2 Tabulation
Slide 46
From Above Slide - Brief summary of data sources: Emissions
from fossil fuel combustion and cement production. 1959-2008
estimates for fossil fuel combustion are from the Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National
Laboratory. 2009 and 2010 estimates are based on energy statistics
published by the British Petroleum Company. Emissions from cement
production were estimated by CDIAC based on cement production data
from the US Geological Survey. The error around the estimate is
about 5 % for a 1 sigma confidence level. Reference: Marland, G.,
T.A. Boden, and R. J. Andres. 2005. Global, Regional, and National
fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. in Trends: A Compendium of data on
global change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis center, oak
ridge national laboratory, U.S. Department of energy, oak ridge,
tenn., U.S.A. Emissions from land use change. 1959-2010 are
estimated based on deforestation statistics published by the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and a
bookkeeping method developed at the Woods Hole Research Center. The
error around the estimate is about 0.7 PgC/y. Reference: Houghton,
R.A., 1999. The annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from
land use 1850-1990. Tellus, 51B, 298-313. The atmospheric CO 2
increase are estimated from atmospheric CO 2 concentration
measurements by the Earth System Research Laboratory of the
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/ESRL).
1959-1980 are from Mauna Loa station. 1980-2010 are global
averages. The error around the estimate varies every year and is
around 0.25 PgC/y (see ESRL web site above for annual errors). The
CO 2 concentration measurements are provided by the US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research
Laboratory, the CO 2 Program at Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, and other research groups. Reference: Keeling, C.D.
and T.P. Whorf. 2005. Atmospheric CO 2 records from sites in the
SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global
Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge
National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn.,
U.S.A. The ocean sink for 1959-2008 was estimated using the average
of four global ocean biogeochemistry models forced by observed
atmospheric conditions of weather and CO 2 concentration (see Le
Qur et al. (2009) above). The mean ocean uptake for the 1990s was
normalised to the observational-based estimates. The ocean sink for
2009 and 2010 were estimated from the sink anomalies estimated by
four ocean biogeochemistry models. The error in ocean sink is about
0.5 PgC/y. More information on the models used can be found here.
The land sink for 1959-2010 was estimated from the residual of the
other budget terms: land_sink = fossil_fuel + land_use_change -
atm_growth - ocean_sink All uncertainties represent 1 sigma error
(68 % chances of being in the range provided)
www.tyndall.ac.uk/global-carbon-budget-2010 Not Measured Data
Slide 47
Precipitation & Carbon Turnover Atmosphere Carbon 800 Gt
Earth Area (km 2 ) 510 E8 (km 2 ) Square Meters/ km 2 1,000,000
Average Precipitation/yr 80 cm/Yr Total 4 E14 cm 3 /yr CO2 400 ppmv
Mass CO2/ Mass Carbon (44/12)155 Gt/55 Gt Residence Time
(800/55)14.5 yrs Half Life (*ln2)10.0 yrs Guess 50% Rain/50% Snow20
yr life 5.
Slide 48
3. Yearly Total Flux: 675Gt not 240Gt 1. 2nd Law Violation! 5
Gt C Missing 2. Photosynthesis Flux Much Greater than IPCC Models
5. Does Not Include All Fluxes 4. Increase Includes Large Amt of
Unknown Total Reservoir C is Increasing Precipitation as a Removal
Mechanism not Included. Suess Effect Missing Summary
Slide 49
Conclusions Part 1. GCC Model Ignores the 2 nd Law of
Thermodynamics All subsequent IPCC Calcs & Models require 2 nd
Law to be invalid Computer Models ignore 3, the Largest Factor Much
of the Model is not Data, but Derived Important factors, e.g.
lifetime analysis, precipitation, total reservoir increases are not
included Revelle & Suess are dismissed without discussion Not
enough data in the reports to support the IPCC hypothesis about CO2
An Alternative Hypothesis has been introduced which follows the 2
nd Law of Thermodynamics
Another Hypothesis? CO2 Levels are increasing. This is of
serious concern because these increases may lead to climate changes
that have unintended negative consequences. The cause of the
increase is human induced; however not from the direct burning of
fossil fuel. Only 16% of the increase in CO2 can be attributed to
Fossil Fuels, leaving a large unknown source. Increasing
atmospheric CO2 levels is the indirect result of the industrial
production and addition of various Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Carbon
fertilizers to the biosphere. These fertilizers increase Net
Primary Productivity which leads to more plant growth and more CO2.
This leads to more rapid cycling of CO2 from the atmosphere into
plant growth and back again. A possible CO2 source is symbiotic
mycorrhizal bioerosion of limestone in Karst Geology by deep tree
roots. These soil microbes release CO2 from the rocks to the plant
roots and ultimately to the atmosphere. Other sources are not ruled
out, such as ocean upwelling or direct carbonic acid limestone
erosion. There is no obvious remedy for this situation without
starving billions of people.
Slide 52
Only Two Reservoirs can Naturally Exchange large Quantities of
CO2 On time-scales of ~100 years, there are only two reservoirs
that can naturally exchange large quantities of CO2 with the
atmosphere: the oceans and the land biosphere (forests and soils).
The mass of carbon (carbon is the C in CO2) must be conserved. If
the atmospheric CO2 increase was caused, even in part, by carbon
emitted from the oceans or the land, we would measure a carbon
decrease in these two reservoirs. - Corinne Le Qur, University of
East Anglia (7 June 2005)
www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/06/how-much-of-the-
recent-cosub2sub-increase-is-due-to-human-activities/
Slide 53
Bioerosion of Terrestrial Limestone is Consistent with dC13 of
-7 mil in Atmosphere Ocean Surface = -10 0 / 00 Why is atm. dC13
greater than dC13 of reservoirs?
Slide 54
Slide 55
Suess Effect -Measures the total reservoir From Scripps CO2
Project 13C of Fossil Fuels = -29.5 mil ( o / oo ) Atmosphere =
1976-2008-7.7 to -8.4 mil Total Change in 13C for period 0.7 mil/32
years =.022/yr Dilution Calculation: Total C = 788 Gt x (8.4-7.7
mil)/(29.5-8.4 mil) = 33.2 Gt/32 years Contribution = 33.2Gt/10yr /
208.6 Gt*/32yr = 15.9% of CO 2 from FF Total Reservoir Calculation:
Total Reservoir 2014 = 800 Gt/.159 = 5031 Gt Total Reservoir 1956 =
640 Gt/.159 = 4025 Gt Increase in Carbon = 1006Gt * From Lookup
Table
Slide 56
It seems therefore quite impossible that an increase in the
atmospheric CO2 concentration of as much as 10% could have been
caused by industrial fuel combustion during the past century, as
Callendars statistical analyses indicate. Revelle & Suess
(1956) Thus,
Slide 57
C14 in The Atmosphere Bomb Effect of C14 is removed in 12 years
Mixing
Slide 58
Estimation of Atmospheric CO 2 ca. 2010 Current CO 2 400 ppm
1850 CO 2 280 ppm Life 12 years Man-made CO24.1 GT/year Total for
12 Years49.2 GT Total (Lim =1.39 x Peak)68.4 GT Total CO 2
present800 GT (Change 1ppm1.9 Gt) Total CO 2 1850538 GT
Difference262 GT Ratio (Anthropogenic)0.26 (26%) Closed System
(x1.23)0.32 (32%) Atmospheric lifetime 5 to 200 yr No single
lifetime can be defined for CO 2 because of the different rates of
uptake by different removal processes. IPCC-2001 & CDIAC
Slide 59
Closed Cycle v. Open Cycle 100% goes to 0% Factor k = -1 From
Global Carbon Cycle 100% goes to 800/2300+1000+800+550 = 17.2% Log
of 100 = 2 - Log of 17.2=.09 = 1.91 Antilog 1.91 = 81% Instead of
-1, k = -0.81 y(t) = a e kt
Slide 60
Effective atmospheric CO 2 lifetime The effective lifetime for
CO 2 in the atmosphere, can be determined by the help of
radioactive, radiogenic, and stable isotopes. All measurements with
different methods show short effective lifetimes for atmospheric CO
2, only ca. 5 - 6 years. Sundquist (1985); Segalstad (1998)
Slide 61
What percentage of the CO 2 in the atmosphere has been produced
by human beings through the burning of fossil fuels? CDIAC Answer:
Anthropogenic CO 2 comes from fossil fuel combustion, changes in
land use (e.g., forest clearing), and cement manufacture. Houghton
and Hackler have estimated land-use changes from 1850-2000, so it
is convenient to use 1850 as our starting point for the following
discussion. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations had not changed
appreciably over the preceding 850 years (IPCC; The Scientific
Basis) so it may be safely assumed that they would not have changed
appreciably in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000 in the absence of
human intervention.Houghton and HacklerIPCC; The Scientific Basis
In the following calculations, we will express atmospheric
concentrations of CO 2 in units of parts per million by volume
(ppmv). Each ppmv represents 2.13 X10 15 grams, or 2.13 petagrams
of carbon (PgC) in the atmosphere. According to Houghton and
Hackler, land-use changes from 1850-2000 resulted in a net transfer
of 154 PgC to the atmosphere. During that same period, 282 PgC were
released by combustion of fossil fuels, and 5.5 additional PgC were
released to the atmosphere from cement manufacture. This adds up to
154 + 282 + 5.5 = 441.5 PgC, of which 282/444.1 = 64% is due to
fossil-fuel combustion.Houghton and Hacklercombustion of fossil
fuels Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations rose from 288 ppmv in 1850 to
369.5 ppmv in 2000, for an increase of 81.5 ppmv, or 174 PgC. In
other words, about 40% (174/441.5) of the additional carbon has
remained in the atmosphere, while the remaining 60% has been
transferred to the oceans and terrestrial biosphere.288 ppmv in
1850369.5 ppmv in 2000 The 369.5 ppmv of carbon in the atmosphere,
in the form of CO 2, translates into 787 PgC, of which 174 PgC has
been added since 1850. From the second paragraph above, we see that
64% of that 174 PgC, or 111 PgC, can be attributed to fossil-fuel
combustion. This represents about 14% (111/787) of the carbon in
the atmosphere in the form of CO 2.
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html
Slide 62
It seems therefore quite impossible that an increase in the
atmospheric CO2 concentration of as much as 10% could have been
caused by industrial fuel combustion during the past century, as
Callendars statistical analyses indicate. Revelle & Suess
(1956) Why was this analysis adopted and Revelle & Suess
discarded?
Slide 63
The increases in global atmospheric CO2 since the industrial
revolution are mainly due to CO2 emissions from the combustion of
fossil fuels, gas flaring and cement production. Other sources
include emissions due to land use changes such as deforestation
(Houghton, 2003) and biomass burning (Andreae and Merlet, 2001; van
der Werf, 2004). After entering the atmosphere, CO2 exchanges
rapidly with the short-lived components of the terrestrial
biosphere and surface ocean, and is then redistributed on time
scales of hundreds of years among all active carbon reservoirs
including the long-lived terrestrial biosphere and deep ocean. The
processes governing the movement of carbon between the active
carbon reservoirs, climate carbon cycle feedbacks and their
importance in determining the levels of CO2 remaining in the
atmosphere, are presented in Section 7.3, where carbon cycle
budgets are discussed. IPCC AR4 Explanation
Slide 64
For the Analysis to work the IPCC/CDIAC must Assume 100+ year
Atmospheric CO2 Lifetime Ignore Suess Dilution Data Ignore Bomb
Effect Data Ignore Ocean and Terrestrial Fluxes on GCC
Slide 65
Conclusions Part 2 GCC Model Ignores the 2 nd Law of
Thermodynamics All subsequent IPCC Calcs & Models require 2 nd
Law to be invalid Computer Models ignore 3, the Largest Factor Much
of the Model is not Data, but Derived Important factors, e.g.
lifetime analysis, precipitation, total reservoir increases are not
included Revelle & Suess are dismissed without discussion Not
enough data in the reports to support the IPCC hypothesis about CO2
An Alternative Hypothesis has been introduced which follows the 2
nd Law of Thermodynamics
Slide 66
Part 3 Tying Loose Ends
Slide 67
PhotoSynthesis & BioErosion What Happens to CO2 & What
is the source of the Missing Carbon
Slide 68
Photosynthesis Sunlight, nutrients, H 2 O Transpiration in
vascular plants Efficient transfer of H 2 O(v) to atmosphere
Oxidation of C org Burning Decomposition
Slide 69
Tree Diagram 5% Leaves 15% Branches & Twigs 60% Trunk 15%
Transport Roots 5% Fine Roots Mycorrhiza: Obligate Symbionts
Slide 70
Some Tree Facts Perennial C3 Plant Dominant Terrestrial Life
Form Mycorrhizae are symbiotic to most trees and help the tree to
process soil nutrients 50% Dry mass of tree is Carbon Some Glucose
is used for cellulose structure Some Glucose is stored as starch in
roots
Slide 71
Some Leaf Facts Globally: 30Gt of Carbon in Leaves Glucose is
produced solely by the leaf C3 Plants more efficient @ higher CO2
levels Stomata open and close to allow CO2 to enter O2 & H2O
transpire when stomata are open
Slide 72
Keeling Curve & Vegetation Lumpy Curve Due to Trees
Suess Effect -Measures the total reservoir 13C of Fossil Fuels
= -29.5 mil ( o / oo ) Atmosphere = -7.8 to - 8.0 mil Total Change
in 13C for period 0.2 mil/10 years Dilution Calculation: Total C =
730 Gt x (8.0-7.8 mil)/(29.5-8.0 mil) = 10.1 Gt/10 years
Contribution= 6.84Gt/10yr /64.5 Gt/10yr = 16% of CO 2 from Fossil
Fuel
Slide 76
13C in CO 2 Alert NWT, Canada C. E. Allison, R. J. Francey, and
P. B. Krummel Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO), Atmospheric Research, 34Gt Carbon /Yearly
cycle
Slide 77
Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinction Low CO2 Levels support C4
plants v. C3 plants
Slide 78
CO2 & Temperature on C3 & C4
Slide 79
C3 & C4 v. CO2 Concentration Compensation Point
Slide 80
Water Use Efficiency
Slide 81
Rise of C4 Plants
Slide 82
South America Before & After From Quaternary Environmental
Networks
Slide 83
Africa Before & After
Slide 84
Eurasia
Slide 85
North America ca 12kYa
Slide 86
PaleoCO 2 Change
Slide 87
Cenozoic CO 2 history
Slide 88
12,000 years ago There was a minimum in Global Temperatures
Trees are C3 Plants The CO2 Compensation Point for C3 plants was
reached at 180 ppm CO2 Rain Forest was 50% Area of Present The
Boreal Forest was covered in Ice The Pleistocene Megafaunal
Extinction Occurred
Slide 89
Soil & Mycorrhizae & Fertilizers Importance of Karst
Geology
Slide 90
Global Carbon Cycle ca. 2003
www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig3-1.htm
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle
Ice Age terrestrial carbon changes revisited Thomas J. Crowley
Article first published online: 21 SEP 2012 DOI: 10.1029/95GB01107
Copyright 1995 by the American Geophysical Union. Issue Global
Biogeochemical Cycles Volume 9, Issue 3, Volume 9, Issue 3, pages
377389, September 1995 N. Shackleton (1977) first proposed that
changes in the marine 13 C record ( 13 C) could be used to infer
ice age changes in carbon storage on land. The previously published
best estimate from the marine record is equivalent to about 490 Gt
(0.32 13 C). However, Adams et al. (1990) utilized a pollen
database to estimate a 1350 Gt change in carbon storage, which
would cause a 13 C of about 0.90. The nearly trillion ton
difference in estimates amounts to almost half of the total carbon
stored on land. To address the nature of this discrepancy, I have
reexamined the terrestrial carbon record based on a new pollen
database compiled by R. Webb and the Cooperative Holocene Mapping
Project (COHMAP) group. I estimate about 7501050 Gt
glacial-interglacial change in terrestrial carbon storage, with the
range reflecting uncertainties in carbon storage values for
different biomes. Additional uncertainties apply to rainforest and
wetland extent and presence of C4 plants, which have a
significantly different isotopic signature than C3 plants. Although
some scenarios overlap a new estimate of carbon storage based on
the oceanic 13 C record (revised to 0.40 and 610 Gt), most
estimates seem to fall outside the envelope of uncertainty in the
marine record. Several possible explanations for this gap involve:
(1) a missing sink may be involved in land- sea carbon exchange
(e.g., continental slopes); (2) the geochemistry of the exchange
process is not understood; (3) carbon storage by biome may have
changed under ice age boundary conditions; or (4) the standard
interpretation of whole ocean changes in the marine 13 C record
requires reevaluation. This latter conclusion receives some support
from comparison of the 13 C records for 18 O Stages 2 and 6. For
the Stage 6 glacial, the 13 C changes are 5060% larger than for the
Stage 2 glacial. Yet implications of increased aridity are not
supported by longterm trends in atmospheric dust loading. To
summarize, the above analysis implies that, despite the
uncertainties remaining in estimates of terrestrial carbon storage
changes, a case can be made that our understanding of the transfer
process is incomplete and that the eventual explanation may require
clarification of factors affecting the marine 13 C record.
Slide 94
Limestone C13 is Similar to Deep Ocean
Slide 95
How & Where did the New Carbon originate during the start
of the Interglacials?
Slide 96
Mycorrhizae http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhiza A
mycorrhiza (Gk. , myks, "fungus" and , riza, "roots", [1] pl.
mycorrhizae or mycorrhizas) is a symbiotic (generally mutualistic,
but occasionally weakly pathogenic) association between a fungus
and the roots of a vascular plant. [2]
[1]symbioticmutualisticpathogenic fungusvascular plant [2] In a
mycorrhizal association, the fungus colonizes the host plant's
roots, either intracellularly as in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi
(AMF or AM), or extracellularly as in ectomycorrhizal fungi. They
are an important component of soil life and soil
chemistry.intracellularly arbuscular mycorrhizal
fungiextracellularlyectomycorrhizalsoil lifesoil chemistry
Slide 97
Rhizobia Rhizobia are soil bacteria that fix nitrogen
(diazotrophs) after becoming established inside root nodules of
legumes (Fabaceae). Rhizobia require a plant host; they cannot
independently fix nitrogen. In general, they are Gram- negative,
motile, non-sporulating rods.soilbacteriafixnitrogendiazotrophsroot
nodulesFabaceaeplant hostGram- negativemotilesporulating
Slide 98
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhizal_fungi_and_soil_carbon_storage
SoilSoil contains more carbon than plants and the atmosphere
combined. [1] Understanding what maintains the soil carbon pool is
important to understand the current distribution of carbon on
Earth, and how it will respond to environmental change. While much
research has been done on how plants, free-living microbial
decomposers, and soil minerals affect this pool of carbon, it is
recently coming to light that mycorrhizal fungi - symbiotic fungi
that associate with roots of almost all living plants - may play an
important role in maintaining this pool as well. Measurements of
plant carbon allocation to mycorrhizal fungi have been estimated to
be 5-20% of total plant carbon uptake, [2][3] and in some
ecosystems the biomass of mycorrhizal fungi can be comparable to
the biomass of fine roots. [4] Recent research has shown that
mycorrhizal fungi hold 50 to 70 percent of the total carbon stored
in leaf litter and soil on forested islands in Sweden. [5] Turnover
of mycorrhizal biomass into the soil carbon pool is thought to be
rapid [6] and has been shown in some ecosystems to be the dominant
pathway by which living carbon enters the soil carbon pool. [7]
[1]mycorrhizal fungi [2][3] [4] [5] [6] [7] Outlined below are the
leading lines of evidence on how different aspects of mycorrhizal
fungi may alter soil carbon decomposition and storage. Evidence is
presented for arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal fungi separately as
they are phylogenetically distinct and often function in very
different ways. arbuscular Soil & Carbon
Slide 99
Mycorrhizal Networks Mycorrhizal networks (also known as common
mycorrhizal networks - CMN) are underground hyphal networks created
by mycorrhizal fungi that connect individual plants together and
transfer water, carbon, and nutrients. The formation of these
networks is context dependent, and can be influenced by soil
fertility, resource availability, host or myco-symbiont genotype,
disturbance and seasonal variation. [1]mycorrhizalfungi [1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhizal_network
Slide 100
Substances transferred through mycorrhizal networks Several
studies have demonstrated that mycorrhizal networks can transport
carbon, [2][3][4] phosphorus, [5] nitrogen, [6][7] water, [1][8]
defense compounds, [9] and allelochemicals [10][11] from plant to
plant. The flux of nutrients and water through hyphal networks has
been proposed to be driven by a source-sink model, [1] where plants
growing under conditions of relatively high resource availability
(e.g., high light or high nitrogen environments) transfer carbon or
nutrients to plants located in less favorable conditions. A common
example is the transfer of carbon from plants with leaves located
in high light conditions in the forest canopy, to plants located in
the shaded understory where light availability limits
photosynthesis. [2][3][4] [5] [6][7] [1][8] [9] [10][11] [1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycorrhizal_networks
Slide 101
Global Carbon Cycle
Slide 102
Karst Wikipedia : Carbonate-outcrops world.jpg Author
ulrichstillulrichstill
Slide 103
Karst H 2 O + CO 2 H 2 CO 3 CaCO 3 Ca 2+ + CO 3 2 CO 3 2 + H 2
CO 3 2 HCO 3 CaCO 3 + H 2 CO 3 Ca 2+ + 2 HCO 3 2 HCO 3 + 2H 3 O + 2
H 2 CO 3 2 H 2 CO 3 2 H 2 O + 2 CO 2
Hypothesis Part 1: The New Carbon that was incorporated into
the environment at the beginning of the recent Interglacial periods
is a result of Bacterial and Mycorrhizal bioerosion on accessible
surface limestone deposits. CO2 was released because of increased
release of microbial organic acids which subsequently dissolved
CaCO3. Most of this occurred at the deeper root systems of trees,
perhaps in Karst Geology. It is possible that a different community
or eco-genome of Mycorrhizae was present that was more active in
dissolving Carbonates
Slide 106
Before Industrial Agriculture & before Haber-Bosch
Slide 107
Review: CO2 is a fertilizer C3 & C4 v. CO2 Concentration
Compensation Point (180ppm)
Slide 108
Plant Foliage is Indeed Increasing Impact of CO 2 fertilization
on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments
Randall J. Donohue 1,*, Michael L. Roderick 2,3,4, Tim R. McVicar
1, Graham D. Farquhar 2 Article first published online: 19 JUN 2013
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50563 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights
Reserved. 1] Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe
over recent decades. The role in this greening of the CO 2
fertilization effectthe enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising
CO 2 levelsis yet to be established. The direct CO 2 effect on
vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid
environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation
growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase
in atmospheric CO 2 (19822010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green
foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations,
analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show
that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our
results confirm that the anticipated CO 2 fertilization effect is
occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the
carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant
land surface process.
What About Deforestation?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBIA0lqfcN4 Not ready to answer this
yet, however there are two questions that that I will ask in this
context. 1.What are the differences with regard to Carbon flux
between old growth perennial rainforest and the new annual growth?
2.How much industrial fertilizer is used in cleared land which was
previously forest?
Slide 114
Malthusian Nightmare How many people would starve to death if
we stopped producing industrial fertilizers? Trying to save the
planet is a lot of nonsense- Because we cant do it James
Lovelock
Slide 115
World Population Growth 6.586 Billion (2006)
Slide 116
Oceanic Dead Zones
Slide 117
Part 3 Conclusions Soil is the Largest Reservoir of
Exchangeable Carbon Symbiotic Soil Microorganisms play an essential
role for nearly all plants by providing nutrients and exchanging
Carbon A possible Ice Age Global Carbon cycle was proposed A
natural scenario that explains interglacial global increases of CO2
was proposed and bioerosion is a major under-studied factor. A
large fraction of the worlds population depends on increasing
industrial fertilizer production which include, Nitrogen, Phosphate
& Potash CO2 is also a fertilizer As predicted, plant foliage
is increasing The Ocean Biota is vulnerable to
over-fertilization