a greener faith in a black swan world

David W. OrrSociety of Entrepreneurs and Ecology

April 23, 2014

systems d

ynamics

non-linearity . . . 2 + 2 = 22

leads & lags . . . skate to where the puck will be

leverage points and

tipping points i.e. irrevocable & irreversible

surprise, synergy, & creativity

NowTime (thousands of years)

160 120 80 40

Temperature difference from

now °C

CO2concentration

(ppmv)

The last 160,000 years and the next 100 years

CO2 now

CO2 in 2100(w/BAU)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

–10

0

10

Degr

ees C

elsiu

s

CO2 P

PMV

CO2 in 2050 (with business as usual)

2-4°C 2061IEA/RCS

The climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel CO2 to the

atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge. Longer than

time capsules, longer than nuclear waste, far longer than

the age of human civilization so far. Each ton of coal that

we burn leaves CO2 gas in the atmosphere. The CO2 coming

from a quarter of that ton will still be affecting the climate one

thousand years from now.

David Archer, 2009

ecological design revolution . . .

sustainable agriculture & forestryarchitecture & greenbuildingwhole systems engineeringurban design/new urbanism biomimicry & materials science landscape designecological engineering industrial ecology information technology for quick feedback least-cost, end-usesystems analysis

smarter solutions . . .

don’t cause other problems

solve for pattern/security by design

technically feasible

competitive . . . CO2/$

can be deployed quickly

resilient, redundant, repairable

so, what do we do??buildings as systems

“one of thirty milestone buildings in 20th century,” DOE

“most important green building in past 30 years,” AIA panel

first entirely solar powered, zero-dischargebuilding on a U.S. college campus

level 2cities as systems

The Oberlin Project 2009

Photo courtesy of John Petersen

Founded 1832City of ~10,00028% below poverty52% free/reduced lunch

goals . . .

1) 13 acre development—Green Arts District• USGBC Platinumnd & economic revitalization

2) Climate neutral—City and College• Clinton Climate Initiative

3) 20,000 acre greenbelt: local foods 70%

4) education—1000 students/10 years• College, LCCC, LCVS, & public schools

5) replicate: National Sustainable Communities Coalition

full spectrum sustainability:parts reinforce the resilience of the whole

Leadership and

coordination

Renewable energy & Efficiency

Policy & Law

Education

communicationEconomic revitalization

Community mobilization

Agriculture & forestry

economic development food/agricultureSE Quadrant food hub

policy business creation

3MW output solar array $15M

public school . . . ~$40M*

Allen Arts Museum $11.2MGateway . . . ~$32M*Green Arts District ~$75M

Apollo theater $9M

Station Sq & housing ~$20-25M*

East College St$17M

Lewis Center

Greenacres, $50M

Oberlin Project to date . . .

City/College partnership one of 18 Clinton Climate positive cities 90%+ carbon free 2013 $1.1M DOE study on energy policy NE OH office & staff community organized in 7 teams College “Star index” Gold 3 MW output solar array $60M expended through 2012 hotel, conference center 2016

working model of a prosperous, sustainable economy in U.S. rust-belt

level 3regions as systems

regions as systems . . .

buying/investing power of higher education

focus: cities, food systems, solar energy

import substitution (Jane Jacobs)

can’t solve Detroit’s problems in Detroit!

high multiplier ( 2 + 2 = 22)

1. we pay for sustainability whether we get it or not.

healthsecurity

environmentsocial stability

economyclimatejustice

2. optimize whole systems, not parts

3. there are few accidents, only the working outof the rules of the system

Now is the time for telling new tales, for retelling

old dilemmas: how to live in the world and preserve

it; how to sustain tradition and foster invention; how

to promote freedom and cultivate order; how to

forge identity and value difference; how to

appreciate the parts and grasp the whole.

Anne Whiston Spirn, The Language of Landscape, 1998