A Guide to Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Options on the

AGuidetoTsunamiVerticalEvacuationOptionsontheWashingtonCoastVolume3:ClallamCounty

August2021

August2021TsunamiVerticalEvacuationOptions

TsunamiVerticalEvacuationOptionsVolume3:ClallamCounty

August2021

Preparedfor:WashingtonStateEmergencyManagementDivision20AviaBonDrive,Building20,MSTA-20CampMurray,WA98430-5112

Preparedby:InsBtuteforHazardsMiBgaBonPlanningandResearchDepartmentofUrbanDesignandPlanningUniversityofWashingtonPOBox355740SeaUle,WA98195-5740

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Acknowledgements

BobFreitag,PrincipalInvesBgatorJeanaC.(Wiser)Gómez,LeadPlanner

MaximilianDixon,EmergencyManagementDivision(EMD)DanielEungard,DepartmentofNaturalResources(DNR)CorinaAllen,DepartmentofNaturalResources(DNR)ElyssaTappero,EmergencyManagementDivision(EMD)JacobWitcra_,EmergencyManagementDivision(EMD)

UniversityofWashingtonTeam

WashingtonStateTeam

ThisguidewasmadepossiblebythededicaBonandinputoftheWashingtonStateEmergencyManagementDivisionandavarietyofotherpartneragencies,organizaBons,professionals,leadersandresidentsthatsharedinformaBonandparBcipatedininterviews,publicmeeBngs,andreviewofdra_s,includingJeanneNathanfromtheUnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey(USGS).

ThisitemwasfundedbyNOAAAward#NA19NWS4670017.ThisdoesnotconsBtuteanendorsementbyNOAA.

SpecialAcknowledgements

FrontCover:SpinnakerPark,OceanShores.PhotoCredit:JeanaC.Gómez

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TableofContents

4

Purpose 5

ProjectAssumpEons 8

Methodology 12

VerEcalEvacuaEon+PEATResults 19

ClallamCounty 21

LaPush 22

NeahBay 32

ClallamCounty:ComparisonTable 48

SummaryTables:Complete 49

Appendices 75

AppendixA:AllPotenBalVerBcalEvacuaBonSitesinStudyArea 76

AppendixB:OceanShoresBridges 82

AppendixC:2010Censusand2019AmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS)EsBmates 84


Purpose

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ThisguidewaswriUentohelpWashingtoncoastalcommuniBessavelivesfromtsunamisthroughtheconstrucBonofaccessibleverBcalevacuaBonstructures. ThiseffortistheproductofanevoluBonofworkbeganover15yearsago.ThisguidebuildsuponprioreffortswiththespecificpurposebeingofverifyingpotenBalsites forverBcalevacuaBonstructureswithincoastalcommuniBesvulnerabletolocalsourcetsunamis.Itistheintentofthisguidetoprovidecommunityleaderswithatooltosavelives.

VerBcal evacuaBon, as a strategy to reduce tsunami risk, has beenexplored and its applicability researched for over a decade. In thebeginning, a series of community verBcal evacuaBon planningmeeBngswereheldinPacificCounty,GraysHarborCounty,andClallamCounty.ThemeeBngs and research efforts took place over the span of two years,whichresultedinthedevelopmentofaseriesof“SafeHaven”reportsforeach County. The reports are available on the State of Washington’sEmergencyManagementDivision’s(EMD)websiteandaresBllaccessiblefordownloadandreview(hUps://mil.wa.gov/tsunami).CostesBmatesforsuggestedsiteswereprepared in2016and the resultsarealsoavailableontheEMDwebsite(hUps://mil.wa.gov/asset/5ba41ffe1efe2).

ThefirsttsunamiverBcalevacuaBonstructurebuiltinnorthAmericaistheOcostaElementarySchool.Itwascompletedin2016andisnearWestport,Washington.TheOcostaschooldistrict’ssuperintendenthadparBcipatedin the iniBalverBcalevacuaBonplanning forWestportandGraysHarborCounty in 2011 and was a key advocate for not only gejng the newOcosta school funded through a local school bond, but alsomaking it averBcalevacuaBonstructure.

BuildinguponthesuccessesandoutcomesofthefirstcompletedverBcalevacuaBon structure and iniBal rounds of community meeBngs andsubsequent increasingpublic awareness, a “Manual for TsunamiVerBcalEvacuaBon Structures” was completed in 2018. The Manual guidescommuniBes through the process of construcBng tsunami verBcalevacuaBon structures using a 7-phase approach. The Manual, 7-PhaseChecklist, and PowerPoint presentaBon are available for download fromtheEMDwebsite(hUps://mil.wa.gov/tsunami).

10YearsintheMaking:Community-BasedPlanningProcess

• 2010-2012:PacificCounty,GraysHarborCounty,ClallamCountyCommunityPlanning+VisioningProcess

• 2016:CostEsBmateReport

• 2018:VerBcalEvacuaBonManualforCommuniBes

• 2020:SiteVerificaBonandAssessmentofVerBcalEvacuaBonOpBons

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https://mil.wa.gov/tsunami

https://mil.wa.gov/asset/5ba41ffe1efe2

https://mil.wa.gov/tsunami


In the2010 “SafeHaven” reports, proposedverBcal evacuaBon structurescenariosweredeveloped foreachparBcipaBngcommunity.Communitymembers and other key stakeholderswere the primary authors of eachproposed scenario, especially the proposed locaBons or sites. SeveralverBcalevacuaBontypologieswereconsidered:structures,towers,bermsand combinaBons. Technical experts and University of Washingtonresearchersand communityplanners supported theprocessand led thereportproducBon.

Thisguideisanevolutionoftheworkcompletedsince2010.Thespecificpurpose of this research effort is to verify and analyze the proposed orpotentialsites forverticalevacuationstructures ineachstudyareausingfourverticalevacuationoptions.The2010“SafeHaven”reportsidentifiedmultiple potential locations for vertical evacuation structures based onpublic land availability, walking distances/times, and population clusters(seeAppendixAforacompletelistof2010sites).

After completion of the SafeHaven reports, the USGS-developed thePedestrian Evacuation Analyst Tool (PEAT), an ArcGIS/ArcMap extensionthat analyzes thewalk times for each proposed vertical evacuation site.Thistoolwasseenasawaytoverifyandstrengthenthecommunity-basedsuggestionsof theearlierSafeHavenefforts,and itbecamethedriverofthisguide.

ThePEATtakes intoaccountterrain,populationlocation, landuse,waterfeatures,likelywalkroutes,andelevation.Additionally,thePEATanalyzesand calculates walk times and routes for communities using no addedpotential vertical evacuation. For the purposes of this research, the “noverticalevacuation”scenariobecameOption1andcanbeconsideredthebaseline for each community.Option 2 included all proposed sites fromthe 2010-2011 community planning effort and Options 3 and 4 wereadaptations of Option 2. Option 3 expanded the spatial coverage ofOption 2 by adding additional potential vertical evacuation sites andOption 4 attempts to highlight the most efficient or lean approach toverticalevacuationforeachcommunity(oftenwithareducednumberofsites,leavingonlythemoststrategiclocations).Eachoptionhasan

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accompanyingsetofstatisticsthat identifythebenefitsofeach,andthepercentageofthepopulationaccommodatedbyeachoption.Populationtypesarebrokendownintoresidents,schools,andfiredepartments.Thecomplete setof results foreach community studyareawill serveas thebasisoflocaldecision-making.

Theresearchresultsinthisguidecanbeadaptedandfurtherexplored.Itisassumedthatlocalleaderswillhavefeedbackastohowtheoutcomesofthisworkcansupporttheirdecision-makingandbefine-tunedforthespecificsoftheevolvingnatureoftheircommunities.Thisresearchteamlooks forward to on-going engagement with the local communitieshighlightedinthisreport.


ProjectAssumptions

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TsunamiHazard1. The scenario event is a 9.0 magnitude subduction zone earthquake

approximately80milesoffthecoastoftheLongBeachpeninsula.

2. Theearthquakeshakingcouldlastfivetosixminutesandwillcreateatsunami.

3. Sixfeetofsubsidenceisexpected.

4. Thewarningbeforethetsunamiwillbetheearthquake.

5. Therewillbeabout15minutesbetweenthecessationofshakingandarrivalofthefirsttsunamiwave.

6. Althoughtsunamimodelsestimatethatpeoplewillhaveapproximately20minutestogettohighgroundoncetheshakingbegins,thepreferredstrategiescontainedwithinthisstudyarebasedonpeoplehavingonly15minutesduetoapproximately5minutesofexpectedintenseshaking.Thisreducedresponsetimedoesnottakeintoaccountthefollowingchallengesthatpeoplewillfaceingettingtohighground:peoplenotevacuatingrightawayduetonotunderstandingwhatishappeningorwhattodo,lookingformoreinformation,contactinglovedones,findingpets,beinginjured,andgrabbingsupplies;poorroad/evacuationrouteconditionsresultingfromlandslides,liquefaction,downedpowerlines/trees,andtraffic;andpossiblepanic.Peoplewillhave15minutesorlesstogettohighground.

7. Tsunamis consist ofmultiplewaves over a 12-24 hour or longer timeperiod.Thefirstwaveisoftennotthehighestwave.

8. Tsunamirefugeeswillneedtoremainonthestructureuntilitissafetoreturntotheground.Thiscouldtake24-48hoursorlonger.

9. Routes tohighground, includingverticalevacuationstructureswillbeavailable,accessible,anddiscernibleaftertheearthquakeandatnight.

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10. Those evacuating will walk/run to high ground, which includes theverticalevacuationstructures.Travelbycarwillnotbepossible.

11. Communicationwillbelimited.

12. Many of the bridges located in the study area, hazard area areassumedtobe“out”followingtheshakingfromtheearthquake.Thisisreflectedinthewalktimesforeachcommunity.


PopulationCapabilities1. Themajorityof thepopulation inthetsunamiriskareas isphysically

mobileandcanwalktotheproposedtsunamievacuationsites.

2. Theaveragefastwalkingspeedofatypical individual is1.52meters/second or 4,488 feet in 15 minutes and the average slow walkingspeedofatypical individual is1.1meters/secondor3,248feet in15minutes.Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,theslowwalkingspeedwasused.Source:FHA(2009)

3. Peopleonthebeachhaveaveragetohighphysicalmobility.

4. Residentsandvisitorsunderstandthetsunamirisk,knowwhattodotoprotectthemselves,knowwherehighgroundisandhowtogettoitasquicklyaspossible.

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VerticalEvacuationTowerDesign+Construction1. Verticalevacuationstructurescanbeprovided.

2. Themarginofsafety(distancebetweentheheightofthetsunamiandthe floor of the tower) is factored to be 30% of the height of thetsunami,plus10feet.

3. If the vertical evacuation structures are constructed on sites wherewetlands are compromised, newwetlandswill be developed or thecompromisedwetlandwillbemitigatedinanotherway.

4. Each vertical evacuation structure will provide ten square feet ofspaceperperson(FEMAdesignstandardminimum).


OtherConsiderations1. Eachcommunitywillneedtoobtainfundingtoconstructthevertical

evacuation structures that best accommodate the needs of itsresidentpopulation.Thiscancomeintheformofa localtax, federalfunding,grantfunding,etc.

2. Inaddition,theextenttowhichvisitorsareconsideredwillneedtobedetermined. Options 1-4 only consider residents, workers, andovernight visitors staying at hotels/motels. The options do notincludealltypesofvisitorsorpeaksummerdayvisitorpopulations.

3. Options 1-4 uses a “maximum build-out” population scenario todeterminepopulationnumbersandlocation.Meaning,theestimatedpopulation includes every residentially-zoned property with astructureandassumesaverageoccupancyforeachresidentially-zonedpropertywithastructure.

4. Averageoccupancyperresidentialpropertywithastructure isbasedon each community’s 2010 Census “Average Household Size.” Thecompletesetofresidentialpropertiesincludedintheanalysisare:

• Single-family

• 2-4units

• Multifamily

• MobileHomePark

• Hotel/Motel(occupancybasedon#ofrooms)

• Institutional

5. VESstandsfor“VerticalEvacuationStructure”

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6. Options 1-4 assume that people within the “slow walking speed”distanceofexisting“naturalhighground”willbeabletoreachitandthus not need to evacuate to a VES. These areas of “natural highground” throughout the study areas are often small and unmarkedareas of land. Some of these areas may be difficult to identify andaccessduringatsunami.

7. Option 2 was developed in partnership with local communitymembers, state scientists, and researchers from the University ofWashington(2010-2011).

8. Options 1, 3, and 4 were developed as an outcome of further andongoing analysis conducted in 2020 to assess multiple options pereachcommunitystudyarea.

9. *Resident and visitor knowledge of existing natural high ground ineachcommunitystudyareaisnotagiven.Infact,naturalhighgroundsignageandway-findingshouldbeconsideredakeycomponentofaverticalevacuationstrategy.Theanalysiscompletedinthisstudyreliesupon access to existing natural high ground for some residents orvisitors.


Methodology

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The methodology developed and used in the preparaBon of this guideleaned heavily upon the use of the Tsunami Pedestrian EvacuaBonAnalysisTool(PEAT),anArcGISextensiondevelopedbytheUnitedStatesGeologicSurvey(USGS).ThePEATservedastheprimarybasisforanalysisoffourverBcalevacuaBonopBonsinPacificCounty,GraysHarborCounty,and Clallam County. Several high-risk communiBes or “study areas” ineachCountywereassessed.Acompletelistofthe“studyareas”:

• Pacific County: Ilwaco, Seaview, Long Beach South, Long BeachNorth,OceanPark,Oysterville, LeadbeUer,Tokeland,andNorthCove

• Grays Harbor County: Grayland,Westport, Ocean ShoresWest,OceanShoresEast,Taholah,andAberdeen/Hoquiam/Cosmopolis

• ClallamCounty:LaPushandNeahBay

In preparaBon for the analysis element of the project, several exisBngdatasetsandpolicieshadtobegatheredandinterpreted,bothtoserveasareferencepointandcontextaswellasdatainput.Thisproject includesthe results of the 2010-2011 SafeHaven community planning effort as astarBng point that developed a single verBcal evacuaBon opBon orscenario, by “study area.” The various individual community scenarioswere developed by the community members with support fromUniversityofWashingtonresearchers,State technicalandsubject-maUerexperts, and local leaders. The primary driver of these SafeHavendevelopedscenariosincludedawalkingcircleexercisetohelpcommunitymembersdeterminehowmanypeoplewouldbeabletowalk(orrun)toeach proposed verBcal evacuaBon structure (VES). The walking circlesused the research of Kaeser and Laplante (2007) and assumed a walkspeed of 4 feet/second for average able-bodied individuals and a walkspeedof3feet/secondforslowerthanaverageindividuals(i.e.theelderlywithlimitedphysicalmobility,etc.).Thewalkingcircleshelpedcommunitymembers decide where the verBcal evacuaBon structures should belocated.Proposedsiteswerealsodeterminedbaseduponpublicorvacantlandavailability(asitexistedin2010-2011)andstrategiclocaBonsclosetopopulaBon,visitorcenters,schools,seniorcenters,etc.

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Withinthisguide,twoofthefourresulBngverBcalevacuaBonopBonsforeachcommunitywerealreadydevelopedgoingintothisroundofresearchandanalysis:OpBon1(noverBcalevacuaBon)andOpBon2(community-derived). The remaining two opBons are new: OpBon 3 (broad spaBalcoverage) and OpBon 4 (efficient/lean). All four verBcal evacuaBonopBonswereanalyzedduringthiseffortusingthePEAT.Each“studyarea”required a 5-step process to analyze all verBcal evacuaBon opBons,including an opBon without verBcal evacuaBon. The 5-step processincludesthefollowing:

1. Context Map: IdenBfies tsunami risk zone, naturally-occurring highground, impassable areas that have a land classificaBon of eitherwetlandorwater(pertheNaBonalLandClassificaBonDatabaseortheNaBonal Wetlands Inventory), tsunami siren locaBons, schoollocaBons,andfiredepartmentlocaBons.

2. OpBon#1:NoVerBcalEvacuaBon

• This opBon assumes no new or future verBcal evacuaBonstructureswill be built. Itmodels residentwalk Bmes as ifthescenariotsunamiweretohappentomorrow.

3. OpBon#2:Community-DerivedVerBcalEvacuaBonStructures

• This opBon includes VES locaBons thatwere proposed andconfirmed through a rigorous community planning process,called “Project Safe Haven.” At the Bme, various types ofverBcal evacuaBon structures were considered by thecommunity(i.e.berm,tower,etc.),howeverforthepurposesofcurrentresearcheffortweareassumingagenericverBcalevacuaBon type and did not drill down to the scale ofmeasuringor considering themerits of eachpotenBal typeof structure. Rather, the placement or locaBon of eachstructureiswhatmaUersmostforthiseffort.


4. OpBon#3:BroadSpaBalCoverage

• This opBon aUempts to achieve broad spaBal coverage ineach study area or community. In some cases, dependingupon the study area, verBcal evacuaBon structures wereadded to OpBon #2 to fill gaps. In other cases, OpBon #2already met the goal of broad spaBal coverage for thepopulaBons of primary concern (resident/worker/overnightvisitor/school)sonochangeswerenecessary.

5. OpBon#4:Efficient/Lean

• This option attempts to strike a balance between cost andcoverage.Meaning, this option presents the “biggest bangfor thebuck”or, “thebest of bothworlds.” Eachproposedlocation inOptions #2 and #3were analyzed to determinemost efficient placement to maximize coverage. Somelocationsweremovedorevenremovedentirely todevelopan option that is both strong (in terms of coverage, # ofpeopleinwalkingdistance)andrealistic(intermsofcost).

Population

Estimated resident, school, fire department, and overnight visitorpopulation was added to each study area in each expected spatiallocation. The population layer informed each vertical evacuation option(1-4) to calculate evacuation times and routes to “safe zones” (bothnaturally-occurring and proposed vertical evacuation structures).Furthermore, the addition of people helps to determine which optionservesthegreatestnumberofpeoplewiththefewestverticalevacuationstructures.

EsBmatedpopulaBonwascalculatedusingthefollowingprocess:Countyparcel-level data, referencing use codes. All residenBal parcels wereselectedandexportedastheirownlayer.Then,theresidenBalparcellayerwasfurtherrefinedbaseduponwhetherornottherewasastructure

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located in the parcel. This step was supported by the addiBon ofMicroso_’snaBonalBuildingFootprintshapefile.AspaBaljoinwasusedtobringtheresidenBalparceldataandthebuildingfootprintdatatogetherto create a unique layer of residenBal parcels with single or mulBplebuildings.ThiscalculaBonwasusedtoassumeoccupancyandtosharpenthe populaBon esBmate. Depending upon the type of residenBal parcel(i.e. single family, mulB family, hotel, etc.), a populaBon count wasassignedusingthefollowingmethodology:

1.Eachstudyarea’saveragehouseholdsizewascalculated,basedonthe2010 Census, except for Neah Bay (which was based on the 2019 ACSesBmate).Thissetaveragepeoplepersingle family residenBalparcel,oraveragehouseholdsize(AHS)asdeterminedbythe2010Census:

• Single-family=averagehouseholdsize(AHS)• 2-4units=AHS*3• MulBfamily=AHS*8• MobileHomePark=AHS*#ofunitspereachpark(Google

EarthtoidenBfy#ofunits)• Hotel/Motel = AHS * # of rooms (hotel website or called

hoteltodetermine#ofrooms)• InsBtuBonal = AHS * # of rooms or occupancy for each

facility(facilitywebsiteorphonetodetermineoccupancy)

The population methodology errs on the conservative estimate sidebecause itassumesevery residentialparcelwithastructure isoccupied.We used this approach as it provides a solid basis for populationestimation thatmay reflect a community’s future population growth. Italsoprovidesflexibilityforhighercountsofvisitorsinthesummerorevenseveraldayseachyearwithspikesinvisitorsduetotouristevents.

Note:The2010Censusreflectspopulationstatisticsthataretenyearsold.2019 ACS estimates have also been documented for each communitystudyarea in thisguideandareprovided inAppendixC, forcomparisonandawarenessastogeneralpopulationandhouseholdtrendsinthelasttenyears.


PedestrianEvacuationAnalystTool(PEAT)

EachOptionwasanalyzedusingtheArcGISPEAT.ThePEATusesa9-Stepprocesstocalculatewalktimes,pereachOption,andproduceresults:

Step1:Setthecommunitystudyareaboundaries.

Three State of Washington counties are most at-risk from the tsunamiscenario and therefore selected to inform this research: Pacific County,Grays Harbor County, and Clallam County. The PEAT works best at asmaller scale, soeach countywas sub-divided into several communities.Thestudyareasfollowexistingjurisdictionalboundaries(wheretheyexist)and some of the larger jurisdictions were further sub-divided into sub-areastomeettheprocessingconstraintsofPEAT.

Note: The sub-dividing of community study areas was required for thiswork to meet the constraints of the PEAT. At the same time, for somecommunities like Long Beach and Ocean Shores, it is assumed that theresultsofeachcommunitysub-areawillbelookedatmorecloselyinthefuturebeforedecision-makingduetothelimitationsofsub-dividingatthecommunity or city scale. For example, there are some proposed VESlocationsinLongBeach-SouththatareclosetoaproposedVESlocationinLongBeach -North.Thecurrentsub-division likelyoverestimates thenecessarynumberofVES.TogetaclearerunderstandingoftheVESneedsfortheentireCityofLongBeachanadditionalPEATrunfortheentirecitywould need to be completed. This requires a high processing speedcomputerandapatientresearcher.It’schallenging,butcertainlypossible.The authors of this guide foresee additional “whole community” PEATrunsinthecommunityforbothLongBeachandOceanShorestosharpenthelevelofcomprehensiveanalysis.

Step2:Pre-processdigitalelevationmodel(DEM)data.

This step tookhigh resolutionelevationdataandapplied it to the studyarea. It’s an important first step because high resolution elevation dataprovidesabasisfordeterminingultimaterealisticevacuationroutes.

PacificCounty GraysHarborCounty ClallamCounty

Ilwaco Grayland LaPush

Seaview OceanShores-West NeahBay

LongBeach-South OceanShores-East

LongBeach-North Taholah

OceanPark Aberdeen/Hoquiam/Cosmopolis

Oysterville

LeadbeUer

Tokeland

NorthCove

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DEMdata fromtheUSGS (Washington10-meterDEM)wasused for thisproject, set to an analysis cell size of 3 (http://gis.ess.washington.edu/data/raster/tenmeter/byquad/index.html). Important note: All GIS datausedorcreatedforthisprojectusedthefollowingcoordinatesystemandprojection:

• Coordinates:NAD_1983_HARN_StatePlane_Washington_South_FIPS_4602_Feet

• ProjecBon:Lambert_Conformal_Conic

http://gis.ess.washington.edu/data/raster/tenmeter/byquad/index.html

http://gis.ess.washington.edu/data/raster/tenmeter/byquad/index.html


Step3:Pre-processlanduseandlandcoverdata.

Thisstepreferencedseverallanduseandlandcoverinputs,andcombinedthemintoasinglelanduse/landcoverlayerforanalysis.TheprimarybaselayerislandclassificationdatadefinedbytheNorthAmericanLandChangeMonitoringSystem(NALCMS),setat30meters,withapublishdateof2015(http://www.cec.org/north-american-environmental-atlas/land-cover-30m-2015-landsat-and-rapideye/#:~:text=This%20map%20of%20North%20American,and%20RapidEye%20imagery%20for%20Mexico).ThebaselayerusesasystemofnineteenLevelIIlandcoverclassesdefinedusingtheLandCoverClassificationSystem(LCCS)standarddevelopedbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAO)oftheUnitedNations.Ofthenineteencategories,onlyelevenarerelevanttothePacificCounty,GraysHarborCounty,andClallamCountystudyareas:1,5,6,8,10,14,15,16,17,18,19.

Thecompletelistincludes:• Value1,Temperateorsub-polarneedleleafforest(.6667)• Value2,Sub-polartaiganeedleleafforest• Value3,Tropicalorsub-tropicalbroadleafevergreenforest• Value4,Tropicalorsub-tropicalbroadleafdeciduousforest• Value5,Temperateorsub-polarbroadleafdeciduousforest(.6667)• Value6,Mixedforest(.6667)• Value7,Tropicalorsub-tropicalshrubland• Value8,Temperateorsub-polarshrubland(.8883)• Value9,Tropicalorsub-tropicalgrassland• Value10,Temperateorsub-polargrassland(.8883)• Value11,Sub-polarorpolarshrubland-lichen-moss• Value12,Sub-polarorpolargrassland-lichen-moss• Value13,Sub-polarorpolarbarren-lichen-moss• Value14,Wetland,RGB(0)• Value15,Cropland,RGB(.5556)• Value16,Barrenlands(.5556)• Value17,Urban,RGB(.9091)• Value18,Water,RGB(0)• Value19,SnowandIce(0)

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Therelevantcategoriesarealsoindicatedwithadecimalnumberlocatedinparenthesis.Thisnumbercategorizesthe“speed”atwhichapedestrianwouldbeabletotraversethislandclassificaBononfoot.AclassificaBonof1isfastest(i.e.roads)andaclassificaBonof0meanstravelisnotpossible(i.e.water).

InadditiontotheNALCMSlandclassificationdata,thefollowingdatawasaddedasancillarylayers:

• Impassable Land (wetland andwater). This data further clarifies landthat is either currently water or would become water (currentclassification = wetland) post-earthquake shaking and subsequentsubsidence. Because we don’t know when the scenario earthquake/tsunami will take place (i.e. winter, high tide, etc.) we made thedecision to classify allwetlands aswater. This is amore conservativeapproach, but one we are confident in making for providing aconservativebaselineestimate.Ifanyparticularlocaljurisdictionwouldlike to augment this approach, that would be possible following thecompletionofthisroundofanalysis.ThedatacomesfromtheNationalWetlandsInventory,producedbytheDepartmentofFishandWildlife.Thisdatawasassignedatravelvalueof0.

• Sand/Beachlandclassification.*ThisdatafurtherclarifiesthelandthatmayalsohaveawaterclassificationintheNationalWetlandsInventory,butattimesthroughoutthetidecycle isactuallysand(orbeach)andmayhavepeople locatedintheseareasthatwillneedtoevacuateonfoot.Thisdatawasassignedatravelvalueof.5556.

• Roads. The roads layer for each county was downloaded from thePacific County, Grays Harbor County, and Clallam County GIS datadownload websites. The exception is that the Grays Harbor Countyroads layer was augmented by the Open StreetMap roads layer forGraysHarborCountyaswefounditwasmorecomprehensivethantheroads layer fromtheCounty.A25-footbufferwasdrawnforall roadslayerstorepresentthewidthoftheroadnetworkmorefully.Thiswasimportantastheroadsnetworkistheprimaryorbestpathfor

http://www.cec.org/north-american-environmental-atlas/land-cover-30m-2015-landsat-and-rapideye/#:~:text=This%20map%20of%20North%20American,and%20RapidEye%20imagery%20for%20Mexico






pedestrian evacuation to either high ground or proposed verticalevacuationstructures.Thisdatawasassignedatravelvalueof1.

• Bridges likely tohavecollapsed, inan impassablecondition, followingearthquake shaking.* This data layer was created after field work toconfirm the location, typology, andconditionofareabridges. For thepurposesofthisprojectweareassumingbridgesoverwaterbodieswillcollapse during the earthquake shaking and therefore will not be areliable pathway for pedestrian evacuation. This data, therefore, wasassignedatravelvalueof0.

• Parcels located in wetlands, but with residential structures.* For thepurposesofthisprojectandthedecisiontoerronthesideofcautionregardingassumptionsmadeaboutlandclassifiedaswetlands(setatatravelvalueof1),someresidentialstructuresarelocatedintravelvalueland classifications of 0, meaning that the people who live in thosestructureswereleftoutofthepedestriancounts.Torectifythis,andtocreate a more comprehensive pedestrian evacuation count, theresidential parcelswith structureswere added back into the analysisandre-assignedatravelvalueof.5556,thesametravelvalueusedforsand.

Step4:Pre-processtsunamihazardareadata.

This step includes the addition of the scenario event’s (Cascadiasubductionzonetsunami,9.0earthquake)tsunamiinundationareas.Thisdata layer tells uswhich area of the communitywill be inundatedwithwater from the tsunami. The source of this data is from the State ofWashington’s Department of Natural Resources. The inverse of theinundationzoneisdefinedasthe“safezone.”

Step5:Runthe“PathDistance”tooltodeterminelikelywalkpaths.

This step takes thepre-processedDEMdata and thepre-processed safezone data to determine the travel distance from every cell in the studyareatothenearestsafezone.

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Step 6: Run the “Evacuation Time Surface” tool to determine walkingtimebandsalonglikelywalkingpaths.

Thisstep takes thePathDistanceoutputandmultiplies itbyaset travelspeed.Forthepurposesofthisproject,weareusingtheslowestavailabletravelspeed“slowwalk”asthebaseline/primarytravelspeed.This isto,again,erronthesideofcautionandaccountforpeoplewhowalkslowerthan the average person. This is particularly relevant for many of thecommunitiesinthestudyareasastheyoftenhaveahigherthanaverageelderlypopulationwhosewalkingspeedsmaybe impactedbyanumberof factors. The “slow walk” travel speed assumes a travel-speed value(meters/second)of1.1.Forcomparison,a“slowrun”travel-speedvalueis1.79anda“fastrun”travelspeedvalueis3.85.Thewalkingspeedscomefrom the Federal Highway Administration (2009); running speeds formMarathonGuide.com(2011).

Step7:Runthe“TimeMapGeneration”tooltoconvertthe“EvacuationTimeSurface”resultsinto1-minuteincrementbands.

This step takes the output from Step 6 (Evacuation Time Surface) andconverts it into 1-minute increment bands. This properly maps thepedestrianevacuationwalkingtimetosafety(aka.naturally-occurringhighground)fromanygivenlocationintheprofiledcommunityorstudyarea.

Step 8: Run a full analysis for each proposed vertical evacuationstructure/location,includingatimemapforeachstructure.

This step is themost important for thepurposesof thisproject.Here iswhere the potential vertical evacuation locations get added to Step 7’sresults. The potential vertical evacuation locations augment Step 7’sresults by creating additional “safe zones.”As a result, potential verticalevacuationlocationschangethetimemapbands-producinganewtimemapoutputthatiscustomizedforeachverticalevacuationoption.Step8wascompletedforeachuniqueverticalevacuationoption,pereachstudyarea or community. Step 8’s output is more robust than the previoussteps.Here,Step8producesasetofnewresultsforeachvertical

http://MarathonGuide.com


evacuationoption,including:arevised“safezone”shapefileandarevised“timemap”-oneforeachindividualpotentialverticalevacuationlocationand one for the entire set of potential vertical evacuation locations,referredtoas“All”.

Step 9:Determine population counts at various travel times to safetyandcreatesoutputtablestoquantify#ofpeopleper#ofminutes.

Thefinalstepincludestheadditionofpopulationcountsforeachverticalevacuation option (see Populationmethodology). This step is importantbecause it references the estimated location of people and numberpeople, aswell as provides the starting point for pedestrian evacuation(whichdeterminesminutestosafety).ThePEATallowsfordifferentiatingbetweendifferenttypesofpopulations.Forthepurposesofthisproject,wecreatedthreepopulationcategories:residents(includingworkersandovernight visitors), schools, and fire departments. Adding population tothe potential vertical evacuation sites determines the hazard zonepopulation served by each structure. This kind of information supportssiteselectiondecision-making.TheoutputofStep9includesspreadsheetsforeachpopulationtypeaccordingtohowmanypeoplepereachminuteofevacuationtimeincrement.Forexample:LongBeach-North’sVerticalEvacuationOption3approximates2,917peoplewithinunder15minutesfrom a “safe zone,” 1,117 people between 15 minutes and 25 minutesfrom a “safe zone,” and 74 people over 25minutes from a “safe zone.”This is exactly the kind of granular data required to make informeddecisionsabouteachstudyarea’sverticalevacuationoptions.

18


VerticalEvacuation+PedestrianEvacuationAssessmentTool[PEAT]

Results

19


CommunityStudyAreas

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround

Water/Wetland(Impassable)

EvacuationZone

*

FireStation

School

SymbologyKey

I <15Minutes

15-25Minutes

25+Minutes

(SlowWalk)WalkSpeedtoHighGroundColorScale=

I1

alt#1

CommunityStudyArea

VerticalEvacuationStructure(VES)Name

AlternativeVES

CommunityStudyAreaIcons=MapIcons=

20

Future(funded)VESSite


ClallamCounty

21

LaPush

NeahBay

CommunityStudyAreas

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


EvacuationZone

ClallamCounty:ContextMap

*

FireStation

School

August2021TsunamiVerticalEvacuationOptions 22

LaPushcommunitystudyareapopulationinthetsunamihazardarea=~325peopleResident/Worker/OvernightVisitorpopulation=~175people

FireDepartmentoccupancy=N/ASchoolsoccupancy=~150people

Source:QuileuteTribe;ClallamCountyResidentialLandUse

LaPush

LP


QuileuteStreetRiverD

rive

OceanFrontDr.

N

LP

CommunityStudyArea

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


EvacuationZone

LaPush:ContextMap

*School



rive

OceanFrontDr.

N

LP

CommunityStudyArea

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


LaPush:Option#1(noVES)

<15Minutes

15-25Minutes

25+Minutes

(SlowWalk)WalkSpeedtoHighGround

*School


<15minutes 15-25minutes 25+minutes

325people n/a n/a

LaPush:VESOption#1(NoVES)

UnderOption#1:• approximately100%ofthetotalestimatedLaPushpopulationarewithin15minutestonaturalhighground

• approximate*maximumwalktimetonaturalhighgroundforidentifiedpopulation=6minutes

25

MinutestoHighGround:Resident/Worker/OvernightVisitorPopulaBon

0

12.5

25

37.5

50

1 2 3 4 5 6

LP

approximatewalktime(minutes)

popu

lation

*ApproximatemaximumwalkBmeaccountsfortheresident/worker/overnightvisitorpopulaBonlocaBonsonly.ThisdoesnotfactorindayBmevisitorsorbeachvisitors,forexample.

Approximate#ofPeople,byWalkingTimeBands,toHighGround

FireStation:N/A

Schools:Approximate6minutewalktimetohighground



rive

OceanFrontDr.

N

LP

CommunityStudyArea

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


LaPush:Option#2

<15Minutes

15-25Minutes

25+Minutes


*School

ProposedVESSite


LaPush:LP1

Source:GoogleMaps

27

LP1

Address 40OceanDrive

IntersectionOceanDrive&RiverDrive

Options 2

Notes QuileuteTribalSchool

I1LP1

I1LP1


LaPush:LP1

LP1-QuileuteIndianSchool,entranceoffOceanDrive(RiverDrive). PhotoCredit:GoogleMapsStreetView

28

I1LP1



325people n/a n/a

LaPush:VESOption#2(community-derived)

UnderOption#2:• approximately100%ofthetotalestimatedLaPushpopulationarewithin15minutestonaturalhighgroundORverticalevacuation

• approximatemaximumwalktimetonaturalhighgroundorverticalevacuationforidentifiedpopulation=6minutes

• approximateminimumVEScapacityneed(15minutewalktime)=0people

• #ofproposedVES=1

29


0

15

30

45

60

1 2 3 4 5 6

I1LP1

LP


popu

lation


FireStation:N/A

Schools:Approximate1minutewalktimetohighgroundorVES


LaPush:ComparisonofAllOptions(1,2)LP

Option#1 Option#2

*MinimumVESCapacity(#ofPeople)

N/A*MinimumVESCapacity(#ofPeople)

0%ofpeoplewithin15

minutesofhighground

#ofproposedVES=1#ofproposedVES=0

100% 100%%ofpeoplewithin25

minutesofhighground

%ofpeoplewithin15minutesofhighgroundorvertical

evacuation

100% 100%%ofpeoplewithin25minutesofhighgroundorvertical

evacuation

Option#3 Option#4

NOT COMPLETED NOT COMPLETED


LaPush:ComparisonofAllOptions(1,2)LP

Notes:*MinimumVESCapacity=thedelta(ordifference)betweenOption#1(noVES)numberofpeopleateachminutemarkandOptions#2,#3,and#4numberofpeopleateachminutemark.Forexample:If10peoplearewithin15minutesofhighgroundunderOption#1butthatnumberincreasesto25peopleunderOption#2-thenweknowthataminimumof15additionalpeoplehavebeenputwithin15minutesofhighgroundthroughtheadditionofaVerticalEvacuationStructure.Therefore,theminimumVEScapacityforthisexampleis15people.


NeahBaycommunitystudyareapopulationinthetsunamihazardarea=~917peopleResident/Worker/OvernightVisitorpopulation=~387people

FireDepartmentoccupancy=~30peopleSchoolsoccupancy=~500people(~75additionalpeoplelocatedinanaturalhighgroundarea)

Source:2018AmericanCommunitySurvey(averagehouseholdsize);ClallamCountyResidentialLandUse

NeahBay

NB


BayviewAvenue

Backtrac

kRoadWoodlandAvenue

N

NB

CommunityStudyArea

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


EvacuationZone

NeahBay:ContextMap

*School

FireStation


BayviewAvenue

Backtrac

kRoadWoodlandAvenue

N

NB

FireStation

CommunityStudyArea

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


NeahBay:Option#1(noVES)

<15Minutes

15-25Minutes

25+Minutes


*School



917people n/a n/a

NeahBay:VESOption#1(NoVES)

UnderOption#1:• approximately100%ofthetotalestimatedNeahBaypopulationarewithin15minutestonaturalhighground

• approximate*maximumwalktimetonaturalhighgroundforidentifiedpopulation=9minutes

35


0

40

80

120

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

NB


popu

lation

*ApproximatemaximumwalkBmeaccountsfortheresident/worker/overnightvisitorpopulaBonlocaBonsonly.ThisdoesnotfactorindayBmevisitorsorbeachvisitors,forexample.


FireStation:Approximate3minutewalktimetohighground

Schools:Approximate2and3minutewalktimetohighground(approximately75additionalpeoplelocatedinnaturalhighground)


BayviewAvenue

Backtrack

RoadWoodlandAvenue

N

NB

FireStation

CommunityStudyArea

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


NeahBay:Option#2

<15Minutes

15-25Minutes

25+Minutes


*School

ProposedVESSite


NeahBay:NB1

Source:GoogleMaps

37

NB1

Address 3560DeerStreet

Intersection ElkStreet&DeerStreet

Options 2,4

Notes

LargesportsfieldnorthofNeahBayHighSchoolandNeahBayMiddleSchool-mayaccommodateaVES

I1NB1

I1NB1


NeahBay:NB1

NB1-SportsfieldjustnorthofNeahBayHighSchoolandNeahBayMiddleSchool

PhotoCredit:GoogleMapsStreetView

38

I1NB1


NeahBay:NB2

Source:GoogleMaps

39

NB2

Address 1510BayviewAvenue

IntersectionBuchananStreet&BayviewAvenue

Options 2

Notes

CapeResort,RVspacesandcabinswithplentyofopenspace.

I1NB2

I1NB2


NeahBay:NB2

NB2-Campground,RVandsmallcabins.OpenspacecouldpotentiallyaccommodateaVES.


40

I1NB2



917people n/a n/a

NeahBay:VESOption#2(community-derived)

UnderOption#2:• approximately100%ofthetotalestimatedNeahBaypopulationarewithin15minutestonaturalhighgroundORverticalevacuation




41


0

40

80

120

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

I1NB2I1NB1

NB


popu

lation


FireStation:Approximate3minutewalktimetohighgroundorVES

Schools:Approximate1and2minutewalktimetohighgroundorVES(approximately75additionalpeoplelocatedinnaturalhighground)


BayviewAvenue

Backtrac

kRoadWoodlandAvenue

N

NB

FireStation

CommunityStudyArea

TsunamiSiren

NaturalHighGround


NeahBay:Option#4

<15Minutes

15-25Minutes

25+Minutes


*School

ProposedVESSite


NeahBay:NB1

Source:GoogleMaps

43

NB1

Address 3560DeerStreet

Intersection ElkStreet&DeerStreet

Options 2,4

Notes

LargesportsfieldnorthofNeahBayHighSchoolandNeahBayMiddleSchool-mayaccommodateaVES

I1NB1

I1NB1


NeahBay:NB1

NB1-SportsfieldjustnorthofNeahBayHighSchoolandNeahBayMiddleSchool


44

I1NB1



917people n/a n/a

NeahBay:VESOption#4(lean/efficient)

UnderOption#4:• approximately100%ofthetotalestimatedNeahBaypopulationarewithin15minutestonaturalhighgroundORverticalevacuation




45


0

40

80

120

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

I1NB1

NB


popu

lation


FireStation:Approximate3minutewalktimetohighgroundorVES

Schools:Approximate1and2minutewalktimetohighgroundorVES(approximately75additionalpeoplelocatedinnaturalhighground)


NeahBay:ComparisonofAllOptions(1,2,4)NB

Option#1 Option#2

Option#4


N/A*MinimumVESCapacity(#ofPeople)

0


0

%ofpeoplewithin15

minutesofhighground

#ofproposedVES=1

#ofproposedVES=2#ofproposedVES=0

100% 100%%ofpeoplewithin25

minutesofhighground


evacuation


evacuation


evacuation


evacuationOption#3

NOT COMPLETED


NeahBay:ComparisonofAllOptions(1,2,4)NB

Notes:*MinimumVESCapacity=thedelta(ordifference)betweenOption#1(noVES)numberofpeopleateachminutemarkandOptions#2,#3,and#4numberofpeopleateachminutemark.Forexample:If10peoplearewithin15minutesofhighgroundunderOption#1butthatnumberincreasesto25peopleunderOption#2-thenweknowthataminimumof15additionalpeoplehavebeenputwithin15minutesofhighgroundthroughtheadditionofaVerticalEvacuationStructure.Therefore,theminimumVEScapacityforthisexampleis15people.


ClallamCounty:ComparisonofAllOptions(1-4)CC

CommunityStudyArea

VESOption

#ofVES

MinimumVESCapacity

%ofPeopleWithin15MinutestoHighGround/VES

%ofPeopleWithin25MinutestoHighGround/VES

LaPush 1 0 N/A 100% 100%LaPush 2 1 0 100% 100%NeahBay 1 0 N/A 100% 100%NeahBay 2 2 0 100% 100%NeahBay 4 1 0 100% 100%


SummaryTables

49


StudyAreaSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~71,186]

OPTION1

#ofVES MinimumVESCapacityNeed

%ofPeopleWithin15MinutestoHighGroundorVES

#ofPeopleWithin15MinutestoHighGroundorVES

%ofPeopleNotWithin15MinutestoHighGroundorVES

#ofPeopleNotWithin15MinutesofHighGroundorVES



N/A N/A 54.9% 39,115 45.1% 32,073 66.4% 47,282

OPTION2








58 16,302 77.9% 55,420 22.1% 15,766 95.4% 67,907

OPTION3








82 22,804 87.0% 61,959 13.0% 9,227 99.2% 70,603

OPTION4








58 21,049 86.3% 61,441 13.7% 9,747 98.4% 70,013

SA


StudyAreaSummaryTable:~AverageVESSizeSA

AverageSizeofEachProposedVES,perOption(#2,#3,#4)

Option#ofProposedVES

MinimumVESCapacityNeed

Approximate#ofPeopleperVES

ApproximateAverageSFperVES(basedonFEMA’srequirementof10SFperperson)

#2 58 16,302 281 2,810squarefeet

#3 82 22,804 278 2,780squarefeet

#4 58 21,049 363 3,630squarefeet

ForReference:TheapprovedTokeland/ShoalwaterBayTribaltowerisanBcipatedtohaveacapacityof384people.BasedonFEMA’sguidelines,theactualrefugeareawillbe~3,800squarefeet.

(Minimum VES Capacity Need / # of Proposed VES) * 10 = Approximate average size per VES

Equation:


PacificCountySummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~25,923]

OPTION1








N/A N/A 51.5% 13,349 48.5% 12,574 64.3% 16,681

PC

OPTION2








25 7,192 79.2% 20,541 20.8% 5,382 97.6% 25,311

OPTION3








40 9,612 88.5% 22,940 11.5% 2,983 99.0% 25,669

OPTION4








25 8,670 85.3% 22,120 14.7% 3,803 98.2% 25,464


PacificCountySummaryTable:~AverageVESSizePC






#2 25 7,192 288 2,880squarefeet

#3 40 9,612 240 2,403squarefeet

#4 25 8,670 347 3,470squarefeet



Equation:


GraysHarborCountySummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~44,021]

OPTION1








N/A N/A 55.7% 24,524 44.3% 19,499 66.7% 29,359

OPTION2








30 9,110 76.4% 33,637 23.6% 10,384 93.9% 41,354

OPTION3








42 13,192 85.8% 37,777 14.2% 6,244 99.3% 43,692

OPTION4








32 12,379 86.5% 38,079 13.5% 5,944 98.4% 43,307

GHC


GraysHarborCountySummaryTable:~AverageVESSizeGHC






#2 30 9,110 304 3,040squarefeet

#3 42 13,192 314 3,140squarefeet

#4 32 12,379 387 3,870squarefeet



Equation:


ClallamCountySummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~1,242]

OPTION1








N/A N/A 100% 1,242 0% 0 100% 1,242

OPTION2








3 0 100% 1,242 0% 0 100% 1,242

OPTION3








N/A N/A 100% 1,242 0% 0 100% 1,242

OPTION4








1 0 100% 1,242 0% 0 100% 1,242

CC


ClallamCountySummaryTable:~AverageVESSizeCC






#2 3 0 *0 *0

#3 N/A N/A N/A N/A

#4 1 0 *0 *0



Equation:

*ClallamCountydoesnothavepopulaBoninareaswitha>15minutewalktonaturalhighground.AnyVESwouldbeelecBvetosupportquickerormorehighvisibilitytsunamievacuaBonendpoints


OPTION1








N/A N/A 62.3% 592 37.7% 358 82.3% 782

I

OPTION2








1 356 99.8% 948 0.2% 2 100% 950

OPTION3








2 356 99.8% 948 0.2% 2 100% 950

OPTION4








1 356 99.8% 948 0.2% 2 100% 950

IlwacoSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~950]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 15.3% 408 84.7% 2,255 57.3% 1,525

S

OPTION2








2 995 52.7% 1,403 47.3% 1,260 93.6% 2,492

OPTION3








4 2,000 90.4% 2,408 9.6% 255 95.6% 2,545

OPTION4








2 1,263 62.7% 1,671 37.3% 992 93.7% 2,494

SeaviewSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~2,663]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 5.7% 295 94.3% 4,923 12.8% 667

LBS

OPTION2








5 3,477 72.3% 3,772 27.7% 1,446 98.6% 5,146

OPTION3








8 4,062 83.5% 4,357 16.5% 861 99.3% 5,182

OPTION4








7 4,035 83.0% 4,330 17.0% 888 96.5% 5,035

LongBeachSouthSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~5,218]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 32.6% 1,340 67.4% 2,768 43.3% 1,779

LBN

OPTION2








4 1,226 62.5% 2,566 37.5% 1,542 94.2% 3,868

OPTION3








7 1,577 71.0% 2,917 29.0% 1,191 98.2% 4,034

OPTION4








6 1,543 70.2% 2,883 29.8% 1,225 98.7% 4,053

LongBeachNorthSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~4,108]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 93.0% 5,838 7.0% 437 99.7% 6,254

OP

OPTION2








5 0 93.0% 5,838 7.0% 437 99.7% 6,254

OPTION3








6 326 98.2% 6,164 1.8% 111 100% 6,275

OPTION4








2 326 98.2% 6,164 1.8% 111 100% 6,275

OceanParkSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~6,275]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 93.9% 3,848 6.1% 250 100% 4,098

O

OPTION2








OPTION3








OPTION4








OystervilleSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~4,098]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 79.5% 408 20.5% 105 95.1% 488

L

OPTION2








OPTION3








2 27 84.8% 435 15.2% 78 100% 513

OPTION4








1 27 84.8% 435 15.2% 78 100% 513

LeadbetterSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~513]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 46.8% 577 53.2% 657 69.7% 860

TO

OPTION2








5 615 96.6% 1,192 3.4% 42 100% 1,234

OPTION3








6 643 97.2% 1,199 2.8% 35 100% 1,234

OPTION4








3 521 97.2% 1,199 2.8% 35 100% 1,234

TokelandSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~1,234]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 5.0% 43 95.0% 821 26.4% 228

N

OPTION2








3 523 65.5% 566 34.5% 298 90.4% 781

OPTION3








5 621 76.9% 664 23.1% 200 97.0% 838

OPTION4








3 599 74.3% 642 25.7% 222 94.0% 812

NorthCoveSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~864]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 1.9% 32 98.1% 1,690 18.6% 320

G

OPTION2








3 770 46.6% 802 53.4% 920 98.0% 1,688

OPTION3








5 1,184 70.6% 1,216 29.4% 506 100% 1,722

OPTION4








3 900 54.1% 932 45.9% 790 95.2% 1,640

GraylandSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~1,722]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 74.8% 3,176 25.2% 1,069 88.3% 3,747

W

OPTION2








5 888 95.7% 4,064 4.3% 181 99.9% 4,244

OPTION3








6 888 95.7% 4,064 4.3% 181 99.9% 4,244

OPTION4








3 867 95.2% 4,043 4.8% 202 99.9% 4,244

WestportSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~4,245]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 7.8% 524 92.2% 6,188 8.8% 588

OSW

OPTION2








11 4,633 76.9% 5,159 23.1% 1,553 99.4% 6,674

OPTION3








14 5,027 82.7% 5,550 17.3% 1,162 99.6% 6,682

OPTION4








11 4,860 80.2% 5,384 19.8% 1,328 99.5% 6,677

OceanShoresWestSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~6,712]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 8.8% 490 91.2% 5,068 10.2% 568

OSE

OPTION2








8 2,819 59.5% 3,310 40.5% 2,248 83.0% 4,612

OPTION3








13 4,140 83.3% 4,630 16.7% 928 95.2% 5,291

OPTION4








12 4,018 81.1% 4,508 18.9% 1,050 95.2% 5,291

OceanShoresEastSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~5,558]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 100% 579 N/A N/A 100% 579

TA

OPTION2








3 0 100% 579 N/A N/A 100% 579

OPTION3








OPTION4








N/A N/A 100% 579 N/A N/A 100% 579

TaholahSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~579]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 78.3% 19,723 21.7% 5,482 93.5% 23,557

AHC

OPTION2








OPTION3








4 1,953 86.2% 21,738 13.8% 3,467 99.9% 25,174

OPTION4








3 1,734 89.8% 22,633 10.2% 2,573 98.7% 24,876

Aberdeen,Hoquiam,CosmopolisSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~25,205]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 100% 325 N/A N/A 100% 325

LP

OPTION2








1 0 100% 325 N/A N/A 100% 325

OPTION3








OPTION4








LaPushSummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~325]


OPTION1








N/A N/A 100% 917 N/A N/A 100% 917

NB

OPTION2








2 0 100% 917 N/A N/A 100% 917

OPTION3








OPTION4








1 0 100% 917 N/A N/A 100% 917

NeahBaySummaryTables,byOption:1-4[totalestimatedpopulationintsunamizone=~917]


Appendices

75


AppendixA:AllPotentialVerticalEvacuationSitesinStudyArea

(Pacific,GraysHarbor,andClallamCounties)

76


Community VESID LocaBon ParcelNumber ParcelOwner IntersecBon

ILWACO I1 46.318953,-124.003979 73033000027 KeithandCarolFogg ScarboroLaneNorth&OrteliusDrive

I2 46.281534,-124.076274 09110800001 StateofWashington Endofatrail,offJettyRoad

SEAVIEW S1 46.332184,-124.053629 10112133176 Jerry&BarbaraBruner 41stPlace&NPlace

S2 46.328340,-124.054777 73026111001 SheilaRank 36thStreet&SR103

S3 46.342519,-124.053958 73026079008 CityofLongBeach 15thStreetSE&SR103

S4 46.331460,-124.044037 10112143021 PublicUtilityDistrict#2 HWY101&SandridgeRoad

S5 46.335643,-124.054970 73026047007 SeaviewSewerDistrict 46thPlace&SR103

LONGBEACH-SOUTH LBS1 46.395103,-124.057690 11113332166 StateofWashingtonParks&Rec CranberryRoad,justwestofSR103

LBS2 46.396369,-124.031711 11113423016 ColumbiaLandTrust CranberryRoad(betweenBirch&Sandridge)

LBS3 46.371961,-124.053016 10110921230 ChannelWestProperBes,LLC 26thStreetNE&SR103

LBS4 46.355841,-124.053033 10110934043 LaUer-DaySaintsofJesusChrist 1306WashingtonAvenueNorth

LBS5 46.348683,-124.051201 10111634649 LongBeachSchoolDistrict#101 WashingtonAvenueS&5thStreetS

LBS6 46.386572,-124.053118 73059001000 ColumbiaPacificHomeownersAssociation 116thLane&SR103

LBS7 46.347797,-124.058206 73051000006 CityofLongBeach 7thStreetSW&SR103-on7thStreet

LBS8 46.346029,-124.041615 10111688014 FairytaleLandLLC Sandridge&SidSnyder

LONGBEACH-NORTH LBN1 46.465866,-124.044994 11110431030 PacificCounty 226thPlace&UStreet

LBN2 46.458766,-124.052260 11110996252 LorenHCorderFoundaBon PeninsulaSeniorCenter/GoldenSands

LBN3 46.438037,-124.051036 11111631070 StateofWashingtonFish&Wildlife 188thPlace&SR103

LBN4 46.416633,-124.051699 11112821003 ColumbiaLandTrust 158thPlace&SR103

LBN5 46.472791,-124.052700 74045004000WesternWashingtonConservativeBaptistCampingAssociation DunesBibleCamp&SR103

LBN6 46.433579,-124.051831 11111633046 StateofWashingtonParks&Recreation 184thPlace&SR103

LBN7 46.414846,-124.039327 74011059000 ColumbiaLandTrust BirchStreet(northofCranberryroad,about1.2miles)

PacificCountyVESLocations:allOptions

77



OCEANPARK OP1 46.512057,-124.054214 76010007000 MelissaCandaceThompson JoeJohnsRoad&KLane

OP2 46.511885,-124.040747 12112113025 GaryD&JMarieMcGee JoeJohnsRoad&XLane

OP3 46.498048,-124.052980 75004045001 MichaelMcMahon&ShellyHedges 270thPlace&ParkAvenue

OP4 46.497731,-124.037659 76026011001 PacificCounty 270thStreet&ZStreet

OP5 46.489357,-124.043582 12113312242 Taylor-OceanParkCemetery UStreet&260thStreet

OP6 46.481538,-124.056674 12113395083 JohnForrestBailey&WendiRognrud 247thPlace&JPlace

LEADBETTER L1 46.587367,-124.062958 13112823019 LeadbetterFarmsLLC IStreet

L2 46.561065,-124.056909 12110550304 FloodControlDistrict#1 357thStreet&IStreet

TOKELAND TO1 46.725044,-124.019800 14110317000 ShoalwaterIndianReservaBon StateRoute105&TokelandRoad

TO2 46.721536,-124.015933 78008002001 ShoalwaterIndianReservaBon 2373TokelandRoad

TO3 46.718694,-124.008509 78036000001 KiUyJSage TokelandRoad&PineLane

TO4 46.709750,-123.990759 14111234014 USA/TrustforShoalwaterBay KindredAvenue&WyeDrive

TO5 46.705469,-123.978893 78029005017 NelsonCrabInc KindredAvenue&2ndStreet

TO6 46.711119,-123.995893 78013003001 PacificCountyFireDistrict#5 2753TokelandRoad

NORTHCOVE N1 46.765180,-124.082727 15113011003 GraysHarborCountyPublicUBlityDistrict,#1 UdellHanson&StateRoute105

N2 46.745150,-124.080955 78035000034 Benjamin&MarionBodwell WarrentonCanneryRoad&SeabreezeAvenue

N3 46.742110,-124.080011 78033000007 SharonK&EdwardALeseman WhippleAvenue&StateRoute105

N4 46.790639,-124.087179 15111812028 GraysHarborAudubonSociety CranberryRoad&StateRoute105

N5 46.778139,-124.083352 15111911030 PacificCounty StateRoute105&SummersLane

PacificCountyVESLocations:allOptions

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GRAYLAND G1 46.849382,-124.105886 161225110030 DonnaJ&RichardBMarBn BongeAvenue&SR105

G2 46.830837,-124.098578 833500002700 PatrickS&AnnRSanteeWoodLane:southof6thStreet&SR105,eastsideofHWY,vacantprivatelot

G3 46.809388,-124.094058 743509100008 SouthBeachRegionalFireAuthority CranberryRoad&SR105

G4 46.824477,-124.096319 161131340260 SouthBeachChrisBanCenter MarineDrive&SR105(northeastofintersection)

G5 46.794627,-124.090675 151107430150 StateofWashingtonParksandRecreaBon 2193SR105

WESTPORT W1 46.907976,-124.112647 104000200201 DarleneMCaldwellETAL EastDockStreet&NyhusStreetNorth(parkinglot)

W2 46.893475,-124.106909 103000801101 CityofWestport AdamsStreet&BakerStreet

W3 46.886575,-124.118149 106501500000 PaulBDraper&RMTLLC SouthSurfStreet&WestOceanAvenue

W4 46.876554,-124.112586 102502900900 StateofWashingtonTaxCommission SR105&WestNewellAvenue

W5 46.862497,-124.099020 161119220080 OcostaSchoolDistrict#172 2580SouthMontesanoStreet

W6 46.902235,-124.130312 616120132002 StateofWashington EndofJettyHaulRoad

OCEANSHORES-EAST OSE2 46.998326,-124.143688 94900900100 CityofOceanShores DuckLakeDriveNE&AlbatrossStreetNE

OSE1 46.997690,-124.157170 90500079700 CityofOceanShores OctopusAvenueNE&AlbatrossStreetNE

OSE3 46.978038,-124.155899 617121014001 NorthBeachSchoolDistrict#64 300MtOlympusAvenueSE

OSE4 46.978869,-124.141928 94700118200 DarleneJ&RolandJBahrTrust DuckLakeDriveSE&LakeBayLoopSE

OSE5 46.967208,-124.138620 94700500100 DianeSiebert&ChrisBlackwell BlueWingLoopSE&DuckLakeDriveSE

OSE6 46.963596,-124.143383 91900061601 OceanShoresCommunityClub MtOlympusAvenueSE&CakesostaStreetSE

OSE7 46.958165,-124.145076 92700016600 Lori&BrentGambriell CormorantStreet&IslandCircleSE

OSE8 46.952658,-124.130549 92900060102 QuinaultLand&TimberEnterprises 1020CatalaAvenueSE

OSE9 47.044871,-124.158170 181215440030 PublicUBlityDistrict#1 StateRoute109&StateRoute115

OSE10 47.012392,-124.153125 95101300000 CityofOceanShores ERainStreetNE&CardinalAvenueNE

OSE11 46.991065,-124.149693 94901206100 Shelly&DerekKane PonderosaLoopNE&BassAvenueNE

OSE12 46.989265,-124.143273 94900601400 HaroldWiebengaJr.EtAl OlympicViewAvenue&HuttonStreetNE

OSE13 46.972591,-124.152807 91900061500 OceanShoresCommunityClub SkookumchuckStreetSE&MakahAvenueSE

GraysHarborCountyVESLocations:allOptions

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OCEANSHORES-WEST OSW1 47.070668,-124.168939 786501000500 Screamin'EagleCampground 2ndAvenue&OceanBoulevard

OSW2 47.042118,-124.170174 181222120010 QuinaultLand&Timber 78SR115

OSW3 47.032457,-124.165071 181222420000 StateofWashington OceanCityStateParkCampground

OSW4 47.018080,-124.159587 181227110010 NorthBeachSchoolDistrict#64 336SR115

OSW5 47.008412,-124.163416 90100700004 CityofOceanShores 120WestChanceaLaMerNW

OSW6 46.984810,-124.162445 90300014900 RichardTDuffy OceanLakeWaySW&NorthPortLoopNW

OSW7 46.962666,-124.164543 92100028800 PamalaJ&MichaelACobb NorthRazorClamDrive&BuUerclamStreetSW

OSW8 46.971723,-124.166264 91700005800 Lisa&RandySeal OceanShoresBoulevardSW&TaurusBoulevardSW

OSW9 46.952215,-124.168749 93300300700 AmyJWolner OceanShoresBoulevardSW&MarineViewDriveSW

OSW10 46.952514,-124.145951 93101209000 ChristopherBMiller WowonaAvenueSW&TonquinAvenueSW

OSW11 46.934499,-124.166225 93900102100 CityofOceanShores SouthSpinnakerStreet

OSW12 46.955773,-124.162348 93100705500 OceanShoresCommunityClub TorrisdaleAvenueSW&SeashoreStreetSW

OSW13 46.993884,-124.166182 618122758170 CityofOceanShores OceanShoresBlvdNW&PacificBlvdNW

OSW14 47.056828,-124.167127 181210330010 OceanShoresOutdoorRecClub DunesLane&PineLane

ABERDEEN,HOQUIAM,COSMOPOLIS

AHC1 46.97174,-123.80099 027400400000GraysHarborHistoricalSeaportAuthority WestCurBsStreet&NorthClarkStreet

AHC2 46.97789,-123.77931 317091011006 GraysHarborCounty JuncBonCityRoad

AHC3 46.96688,-123.82948 029407400000 CityofAberdeen SouthGarfieldStreet&WestStateStreet

AHC4 46.96561,-123.78971 317091521001 AberdeenSchoolDistrict#5 SouthFarragutStreet&EastPerryStreet

AHC5 46.97346,-123.83141 010400100100 AberdeenSchoolDistrict#5 PacificAvenue&NorthDivisionStreet

AHC6 46.97461,-123.92440 056401200100 PortofGraysHarbor AirportWay(nearBowermanAirport)

TAHOLAH TA1 47.346217,-124.289532 unknown unknown 5thAvenue&CommuxStreet

TA2 47.344442,-124.293106 unknown unknown 2ndAvenue&SpruceStreet

TA3 47.345159,-124.284176 unknown unknown ParkPlace

GraysHarborCountyVESLocations:allOptions

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LAPUSH LP1 47.908355,-124.637894 N/A QuileuteTribe OceanDrive&RiverDrive

NEAHBAY NB1 48.364337,-124.621179 TBD NeahBaySchoolDistrict ElkStreet&DeerStreet

NB2 48.365846,-124.606190 TBD TBD BuchananStreet&BayviewAvenue

ClallamCountyVESLocations:allOptions

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AppendixB:OceanShoresBridges

82


BridgeID

Community/StudyArea LocaBon(Lat/Long) Street Notes

1 OceanShores-East 47.005633,-124.150603 EChanceaLaMer LocatedbetweenCardinalAvenueNE&RainbowCourt2 OceanShores-East 46.998026,-124.148508 AlbatrossStreetNE LocatedbetweenSunsetAvenue&EChanceaLaMerNE3 OceanShores-East 46.988842,-124.146176 OverlakeStreetNE LocatedjustSWofDuckLakeDriveNE4 OceanShores-East 46.984694,-124.156552 OceanLakeWayNE LocatedbetweenPointBrownAvenue&CanalDrive

5 OceanShores-East 46.951139,-124.132280 PointBrownAvenueSWLocatedbetweenNorthRazorClamDriveSW&SouthRazorClamDriveSW

6 OceanShores-East 46.952582,-124.134914 MountOlympusAvenueSE

LocatedbetweenFallsofClydeLoopSE&HassaloAvenueSE7 OceanShores-West 46.951540,-124.146702 TonquinAvenueSW LocatedbetweenWawonaAvenue&MarineViewDrive8 OceanShores-West 47.071072,-124.167795 SecondAvenue LocatedbetweenPacificBoulevard&OceanBoulevard

OceanShores:BridgeInventory+Locations

83


AppendixC:2010Censusand2019AmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS)Estimates

84


PopulationComparisons:2010Censusvs.2019ACS

85

Community Type2010Census-

MedianHouseholdSize2019ACSEsBmate-

MedianHouseholdSizeDifference

(2019ACS-2010Census)

Ilwaco Town 2.1 2.6 0.5

Seaview(98644) ZipCode 1.9 2.3 0.4

LongBeach Town 1.9 2 0.1

OceanPark Town 2.05 2.3 0.25

Oysterville(98640) ZipCode 2.05 2.1 0.05

Leadbeeer(98640) ZipCode 2.05 2.1 0.05

Tokeland(98590) ZipCode 2.18 2.4 0.22

NorthCove(98547) ZipCode 2.18 2 (0.18)

Grayland Town 2.0 1.8 (0.2)

Westport Town 2.1 2.1 0

OceanShores Town 2.06 1.9 (0.16)

Taholah Town *TribalpopulaBonesBmateusedinstead *TribalpopulaBonesBmateusedinstead N/A

LaPush(98350) ZipCode *TribalpopulaBonesBmateusedinstead *TribalpopulaBonesBmateusedinstead N/A

NeahBay Town 2.76 3.2 0.44

Documents

A Guide to Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Options on the