A LOOK AT THE INTRICACIES OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN

MOBILITY IN AFRICARichard S. Odingo

VULNERABILITY OF AFRICA TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Since the founding of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been a consensus that Africa is and will be the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

A look at African history for the last two or more thousand years suggests that there have been waves of population mobility, which could be attribute toconflicts over natural resources, and more recently exacerbated by climate change

CLIMATE CHANGE AS A SECURITY CONCERN

• Recently a group of top US Military Generals concluded that climate change comprises a new and very different type of national security challenge.

• They also noted that climate change can act as a threat multiplier and instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world.

• We can say that many areas of Africa fall into this category-hence the importance of human migrations.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY

• It is now well accepted that climate change will likely foster political instabiliy where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope.

• Among the factors which add up to create problems for governments are decline in food production, increase in diseases, water scacity, as well as flood disasters.

• Migration is a natural outcome of these disruptions.

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA

• All the major economic sectors of African economies are targeted by climate change. These include-– Water– Agriculture and food production– Health– Energy– Ecosystems– Coastal zones

Agricultural production and food security in AfricaAgricultural production and food security in Africa

• Arid and semi-arid land in Africa could increase by 5-8% (60-90 million hectares).

• Wheat production may likely disappear from Africa by the 2080s.

• Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small-scale farms being the most affected.

• It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub-Sahara African will likely experience agricultural losses of between 2 and 7% of the GDP

Agricultural production and food security in AfricaAgricultural production and food security in AfricaExtreme wind and turbulence could decrease fisheries

productivity by 50-60%, while turbulence will likely bring about a 10% decline in productivity on the spawning grounds;

Warming of 2.5°C to 5oC in Africa will likely increase small farm livestock income by 26% (+US$1.4 billion) and 58% (+US$3.2 billion), respectively.

By contrast, a warming of 2.5°C will likely decrease large farm livestock by 22% (-40 US$13 billion) and a warming of 5°C will likely reduce it by as much as 35% (-US$20 billion).

Increased precipitation of 14% would likely reduce small farm livestock income by 10% (-US$ 0.6 billion).

The same reduction in precipitation would likely reduce large farm livestock income by about 9% (-US$5 billion).

Already Bad Situation of Water Already Bad Situation of Water Resources in Africa will be Resources in Africa will be

exacerbatedexacerbatedClimate change and variability will likely impose additional pressures on water availability, water accessibility and water demand in Africa.

The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between 75-250 million people by 2020 and 350-600 million people by the 2050.

Northern Africa and southern Africa are likely to see increase in the number of people that could experience water stress by 2055.

On the other hand, more people in eastern Africa and western Africa will likely experience a reduction rather than a water stress.

A 3°C temperature increase could lead to 0.4 – 1.8 billion more people at risk of water stress.

Climate Change damage to Ecosystems

• Climate variability and change, coupled with human induced changes, may also affect ecosystems (mangroves and coral reefs), with additional consequences on fisheries and tourism. The projection that sea level rise would increase flooding in low lying coastal areas will increase the physical and socio-economic vulnerability of coastal cities.

Changes in a variety of ecosystems are at a faster rate than anticipated.

• Climate change, interacting with human drivers such as deforestation and forest fires are a threat to Africa’s forest ecosystem.

• By 2020, the ice cap on Mt. Kilimanjaro could disappear;others like Mt. Kenya and Mt.Ruwenzori will equally suffer;

• In some national parks in sub-Saharan Africa about 10-15% of the species are projected to fall within the IUCN Critically Endangered or Extinct categories by 2050, increasing to 25-40% of species by 2080.

• Tourism will be affected by the loss in animal species• It is estimated that by the 2080s, parts of arid and semi-

arid lands in Africa will likely increase by 5-8%.

Disappearing Mt. Kenya Glaciers

This image set displays a continued decline in lake surface area from 22 902km2 [8 843 square miles] in 1963 to a meager 304km2 [117 square miles] in 2001

Lake Chad [from the TAR]

Inundation and Erosion of low-lying lands will be exacerbated by climate variability and change, impacting

severely on coastal settlements

• Projected sea level rise would increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa;

• Sea level rise will likely increase the high socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of coastal cities.

• The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could amount to at least 5-10% of GDP.

Impacts on TourismImpacts on Tourism• The economic benefits of tourism in Africa, which

according to 2004 statistics accounts for 3% of worldwide tourism, may change with climate change.

• Flood risks and water pollution related diseases in low-lying regions (coastal areas) as well as coral reef bleaching as a result of climate change could impact negatively on tourism.

• African tourist places of interest, including wild life areas and parks, may also attract fewer tourists under marked climate changes.

• Climate change could, for example, lead to a poleward shift of centres of tourist activity and a shift from lowland to highland tourism.

Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively impact Human health in Africa

By 2100, previously unsuitable areas of dense human population for distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe will become suitable for transmission.

Strong southward expansion of the transmission zone will likely continue into South Africa.

A 5-7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution is projected, with little increase in the latitudinal extent of the disease by 2100.

Previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could also experience modest changes to stable malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmission becoming highly suitable by the 2080s.

It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional 80 million people will likely be at risk of malaria.

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATECHANGES IN CLIMATE

• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenarios.

• Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected;

• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

• Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic ocean

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATECLIMATE

• Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions.

HUMAN MIGRATIONS AS ANATURAL RESPONSE TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE

WE HAVE NO REASON TO DOUBT THAT ALL THE STATED IMPACTS WILL NOT ONLY DESTABILIZE THE POPULATION, BUT WILL ALSO PRODUCE SPONTANEOUS MIGRATIONS.

MIGRANTS TRY ALL DISASTER ESCAPING OUTLETS AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT SOME OF THEM END ON THE DOORSTEPS OF MEDITERRANEAN STATES SUCH AS ITALY

HUMAN MIGRATIONS COULD BE CONSIDERED AS ADAPTATION

• A look at traditional practices among the pastoral populations in Africa would tend to suggest that migration away from areas with environmental stresses, such as the lack of water or lack of grazing was a common form of adaptation. Unfortunately such outlets are today no longer open, as the population of Africa grow.

• In the absence of outlets, violence and insecurity may follow.

AFRICA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE AFRICA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE CONTINENTS OF THE GLOBECONTINENTS OF THE GLOBE

Africa will Africa will experience experience

severe severe impacts impacts due to due to climate climate

change and change and climate climate

variabilityvariability

++

Africa Africa has the has the lowest lowest

capacity capacity to to

Adapt Adapt to to

Projected Projected Climate Climate ChangeChange

==

AFRICAAFRICAIS IS

THE THE MOST MOST

VULNERABLE VULNERABLE CONTINENT CONTINENT

OF OF THE THE

GLOBEGLOBE

WAYS TO ASSIST AFRICA TO DEAL WITH CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE• Ideally the common problems of Africa should

be handled by a Marshall Plan• Unfortunately there is no country in the world

today generous enough to do that• Most of the suggested soluyions to African

problems are tokenistic and of little effect• Creating commissions which are ill-thought

out and poorly funded will remain tokenistic

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE DIALOGUE APPROACH

The dialogue approach puts more emphasis on working together for a common purpose,

The emphasis is not on money but on ideas, Many countries in the Mediterranean Basin will

also have to deal with climate change impacts. So far there is no guaranty that existing

technology with the possible exception of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) may do the trick

In other words we are all in the same boat!

FOCUS ON ADAPTATION

• The ingredients of climate change for most of Africa include droughts alternating with floods, water scarcity, drop in crop yields and agricultural output, sea level rise, damage to ecosystems, the spread of, and increase in tropical diseases;

• In order to be able to respond, there must be emphasis on adaptation, traditional and new.

THE VALUES OF ADAPTATION

• The reasons for emphasis on adaptation is simple. If communities can adapt, then they do not necessarily have to migrate.

• At the UNFCCC level, not enough weight is put on adaptation. Industrialised countries sometimes regard adaptation as a luxury we can ill afford, yet within it are to be found real answers to coping with climate change.

DIALOGUE CONTINUED

Human migrations in Africa are but a symptom of a much greater ailment called poverty,

By studying the climate change-links to poverty we may be lucky enough to make some headway in dealing with climate change.

Following the current global recession, tax payers in OECD countries will be more likely to help with ideas than massive finances.

DIALOGUE -3

• The dialogue on human migrations in Africa may be the first step

• Another step might involve addressing resource was linked to water scarcity, or for that matter, in dealing with climate-linked increase in diseases

• By the way Latin Europe originated the name “Malaria”

A LIST OF POSSIBLE DIRECTIONS

The following are areas of concentration by the dialogue which could yield good results within acceptable period:

Focus on the potential for the massive development of renewable energy projects, calculated to enable Africa to help itself

Debating and finding solutions for the water scarcity dilemma. In my view this is more of a technical problem, and the technology is here.

LIST OF DIRECTIONS

The problem of climate-related decline in crop yields, and its consequences in food security is a much more difficult problem, and Africa and Italy can surely put their heads together to find lasting solutions by resorting to climate-friendly technology.

When it comes to climate change and ecosystem damage there is room for sharing experience starting with the Mediterranean.

WISH LIST CONTINUED

Observations from the last four years since the Kyoto Protocol came into being have given some of us hope.

In the areas of the Clean development Mechanism, and carbon-trading, many of us have come to the realization that the sky is the limit, so we must start by removing prejudice against Africa. To stem human migrations we must create employment in Africa.

POVERTY AND HUMAN MIGRATIONS

I HAVE NO MANDATE ON MANY OF THE ISSUES WE WILL NEED TO PUT ON THE TABLE FOR DISCUSSION, BUT I FEEL VERY STRONGLY THAT ALONG SIDE FOOD SECURITY WE MUST ALSO DISCUSS THE PROBLEM OF POVERTY IN AFRICA.

It is very difficult to discuss poverty in Africa meaningfully because of the recent economic slump or downturn,

POVERTY AND HUMAN MIGRATIONS CONTINUED

But one will find that poverty in Africa is structural, and we can find ways to tackle it without talking of “Marshall Aid.”

Every time we discuss poverty in Africa as the root cause of many problems such as out=migration, we suddenly discover that we have very few friends!

Needless to say IPCC has blamed climate change on industrialised countries.

HOW TO DIALOGUE INTO THE FUTURE

• We need a small Secretariat rather than a Commission

• If you are wondering why I do not like the idea of another Commission, it is because it quickly becomes politicized and ineffective

• If we start with a dialogue Group we should keep the Dialogue Group.

• It does not have to include 53 countries

HOW TO DIALOGUE INTO THE FUTURE

• A manageable Secretariat is all we need with powers to consult and to coopt for specific issues across Africa

• Let there be many more ideas from ALL the Participants.

• THANK YOU ALL