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A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Development of a LAM-EPS system for
Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics
Andrea Montani
C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella
ARPA-SIMC
HydroMeteoClimate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna,
Italy
XIII COSMO meetingRome (I), 5-8 September 2011
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Introduction
• After Athens (Summer 2004) and Turin (Winter 2006), for the third time in a
decade the Olympic Games being hosted by a COSMO-country.
• Next Olympics and Paralympics Winter Games will take place in Sochi,
Russia (7-23 February and 7-16 March 2014).
• In the past occasions, the involvement of the full consortium was limited in
terms of implementation/support of new modelling products.
• As for Sochi-2014 Winter Olympics, Roshydromet is organizing a blended
RDP/FDP (Research and Development Project / Forecast Demonstration
Project) under the auspices of WMO: FROST-2014 (Forecasting and
Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed).
• A new COSMO PP (CORSO) is being set-up to avoid duplication of work and
to better coordinate COSMO activities within this RDP/FDP.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Some geography…
Sochi (RU)
Rome (I)
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Tiziana!!!
Detlev!!!
Andrea!!!
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
COSMO vs FROST-2014
COSMO should perform a number of activities related to FROST-2014:
a) deterministic forecasting (FDP/RDP initiatives),
b) probabilistic forecasting:
b1) FDP initiatives (“clone” of COSMO-LEPS over the Sochi area),
b2) RDP initiatives (development of a convective-scale COSMO LAM-EPS for
the Sochi area),
c) post-processing and product generation (FDP/RDP initiatives),
d) verification (FDP/RDP initiatives).
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) initiatives
SOCHMEL: SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe system(“relocation” of COSMO-LEPS)
Horizontal resolution: 7 km ( SOCHMEL7).
Vertical resolution: 40 model levels.
Forecast range: 72 hours.
Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.
Ensemble size: 10 members.
Initial and boundary conditions: interpolated from selected ECMWF EPS members.
Soil field initialisation: either using DWD Soil Moisture Analysis fields (like in COSMO-LEPS) or from hindcast COSMO run.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
SOCHMEL suite @ ECMWF: present prototype
d+3d+3dd d+2d+2d+1d+1
ECMWF EPSECMWF EPS
clustering clustering intervalinterval
Cluster Analysis and RM identificationCluster Analysis and RM identification
4 variables4 variables
Z U V QZ U V Q
3 levels3 levels
500 700 850 hPa500 700 850 hPa
2 2 time time stepssteps
Cluster Analysis and RM identificationCluster Analysis and RM identification
Black-Sea Black-Sea areaarea
Complete Complete LinkageLinkage
1010 Representative Representative Members driving the Members driving the 1010
COSMO-model COSMO-model integrations (weighted integrations (weighted according to the cluster according to the cluster
populations)populations)
employing either employing either Tiedtke or Kain-Fristch Tiedtke or Kain-Fristch
convection scheme convection scheme (randomly choosen) (randomly choosen)
++perturbations in perturbations in
turbulence scheme and turbulence scheme and in physical in physical
parameterisationsparameterisations
SOCHMEL
clustering area
• Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; fc+72h;• initial time: 00UTC, 12UTC;• computer time (~ 2 million BUs
for 2012) provided by an ECMWF Special Project;
• suite managed by ARPA-SIMC; • contributions from ECMWF
member states could be needed in the future.
SOCHMEL Integration
Domain
this prototype is ready!
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Types of perturbations
As for types and values, the results from CSPERT experimentation are
followed (* denotes default values for COSMO v4.12 ):
• convection_scheme (either Tiedtke* of Kain-Fritsch),
• tur_len (either 150, or 500*, or 1000),
• pat_len (either 500*, or 2000),
• crsmin (either 50, or 150*, or 200),
• rat_sea (either 1, or 20*, or 40),
• rlam_heat (either 0.1, or 1*, or 5),
• mu_rain (either 0.5* or 0),
• cloud_num (either 5x10^8* or 5x10^7).
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014Submitted end of April 2011!
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
RDP (Research and Development Project) initiatives
SOCHMEL28: convective-scale ensemble system(possible prototype)
Horizontal resolution: 2.8 km.
Vertical resolution: 50 model levels.
Forecast range: 48 hours.
Starting time: 00UTC, 12UTC.
Ensemble size: 5 members.
Boundary conditions: either from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems.
Initial conditions: either from SOCHMEL7 or from deterministic systems.
Data assimilation: …
Provision of wind-gust forecasts using different diagnostic algorithms.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Important ingredients for a successful ensemble
1. Have a clear division between FDP and RDP activities / commitments.
2. Develop experience with the use of probabilities by local forecasters.
3. Need of feedback on the top-priority products to be generated / visualised.
4. Computer time.
5. Timeliness in product delivery.
6. Observations to assess the quality of the system in the development phase.
7. …
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Potential problems and open issues• Access to real-time ECMWF data via an independent way from COSMO-LEPS
time-critical application.• Computer time: Special Project at ECMWF may not be enough, especially if RDP
component is implemented.• Timeliness of delivery: test data-flow as soon as possible, ensure solidity to the
suite.• Need to downscale information at local sites over complex topography.• Forecasters do not always like probabilities.• End-users “hate” probabilities.• …
Timetable (from FROST-2014)Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter.
Trial: 2012/13 winter.
Olympics: 2014 winter.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Thank you !
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Outline
1) Introduction to Sochi-2014:a) What is it?
b) What has to do with COSMO?
2) COSMO ensemble activities within FROST-2014: a) introduction to SOCHMEL (the SOCHi-targeted Mesoscale EnsembLe
system);
b) methodology;
c) phases of development;
d) planned activity.
3) Final remarks.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
COSMO-LEPS (developed at ARPA-SIMC)
• What is it?It is a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS),
based on COSMO-model and implemented within COSMO (COnsortium for Small-scale Modelling, including Germany, Greece, Italy, Poland, Romania, Russia, Switzerland).
• Why?It was developed to combine the advantages of global-
model ensembles with the high-resolution details gained by the LAMs, so as to identify the possible occurrence of high-impact and localised weather events (heavy rainfall, strong winds, temperature anomalies, snowfall, …)
generation of COSMO-LEPS to improve the forecast of high-
impact weather in the short and early-medium range (up
to fc+132h)
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
EPS 00 UTC(51 members)
EPS 12 UTC(51 members)
Cluster Analysis5 Representative Members
BOLAM
COSMO
WRF
EPS 00 UTC(51 members)
EPS 12 UTC(51 members)
Cluster Analysis16 Representative Members
COSMO LEPS
Multimodel Ensemble15 members
Multianalysis Model Perturbed
Ensemble16 members
BUILDING THE ENSEMBLE: SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE MEMBERS (3)
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Doubts and open issues
Deterministic modelling:• 1-km COSMO has never been tested in winter in the operational mode; what about support from the model developers?• Are there sufficient computer resources at RosHydroMet to run the 1-km model on a reasonable-size domain (but what is the reasonable domain size for Sochi)?• Downscaling from 7-km to 1 km can give rise to spin up problems at the early stage of the forecast.
Verification:• RosHydroMet can, most likely, provide the project partners with additional in-situ observations not normally available on the GTS.• Verification: methodology and observations (the same for all models!).
Ensemble modelling:• Forecasters do not always like probabilities (at any scale!)• End-users “hate” probabilities.
A. Montani. - COSMO-LEPS for Sochi 2014
Timetable
• Pre-trial: 2011/12 winter
• test data flow, products delivery
• Trial: 2012/13 winter
• Olympics: 2014 winter.