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A Personal History in System of Systems B. E. White, Ph.D.
CAU SES: Complexity Are Us Systems Engineering Strategies
18 October 2010
Special Session on System of Systems (SoS)
International Congress on Ultra Modern Telecommunications and Control Systems
1 ICUMT-2010 (Moscow: 18-20 October2010) See Notes Pages for paper
Introduction
Relationships
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Complex System
Enterprise
SoS
System
Foundational Career Phase
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2003-09 Director of systems engineering process office
Learned complexity theory and complex systems
Helped develop CSE principles for our most difficult systems
Tried to convince skeptics that CSE is wave of future in SE
Defining System: collection of elements for purpose greater than sum of parts
System boundary should be discussed in creating shared vision
SoS: collection of systems where each system, with its own purpose, is managed
independently, and is can still operate alone in SoS environment
CSE is mostly about people who cannot necessarily be controlled or even influenced
Political, operational, economic, and technical (POET) aspects must be considered
Monitoring Watch whether system is moving in desired direction; beware of time delays
Help decision makers make better decisions
Management Create conditions for self-adaptation/organization
Do not force behavior from top in typical command-and-control fashion
Forecasting It is impossible to accurately predict future behavior of complex system
Let system design itself and evolve on its own
CSE Principles*
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1. Bring Humility
2. Follow Holism
3. Achieve Balance
4. Utilize Trans-Disciplines
5. Embrace POET
6. Nurture Discussions
7. Pursue Opportunities
8. Formulate Heuristics
9. Foster Trust
10. Create Interactive Environment
11. Stimulate Self-Organization
12. Seek Simple Elements
13. Enforce Layered Architecture __________
* Pm = principles that were applied; m = 1, 2, 3, … , will be shown in other career phase examples
(Pn) = principles that should have been applied; n = 1, 2, 3, … , will be shown in other career phase examples
Previous Career Phases
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Technical Intelligence*
Satellite Command Link*
Communication to Submarines*
Satellite Band-Pass Limiter
Bandwidth Efficient Modulations*
Satellite Communications Architectures
Satellite Multiple Access
Frequency-Hopping (FH) Radios*
Civil Aeronautical Communication*
Military Global Grid Architecture
Class of Functions Architecture
Future Joint Tactical Data Link (JTDL)*
__________
* Covered explicitly in this talk
Technical Intelligence
(Foreign Technology)
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1962-1965 Lieutenant in U.S. Air Force
Studied CCN-related technologies
Learned to read scientific Russian
Defining Space programs
Large radio astronomy antennas
Ferroelectric memories
Monitoring Briefed senior leaders
Verified Aviation Week!
Management Open societies gave West lead in computer technology
Hiding own work internally slowed progress
Forecasting Relied too much on past observations
Depended on speculations from foreign visits CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P6; Mnt: P2, P7; Mng: (P9, P10) P11; Frc: (P1)
Holism, Discussions, Opportunities, and
Self-Organization but Distrust,
Non-Interactive, and Arrogant
Satellite Command Link
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1965-1967
First “real job”
A. Simple anti-spoof (AS) authentication
B. Pseudorandom sequence to control FH for AJ
Defining
A. 6-stage feedback and feed-forward linear shift registers
B. Timing beacon registers fed nonlinear combinatorial circuit
Monitoring
A. Dropped timing pulse in lab test cause surprising authentication
B. Successfully passed standard randomness tests
Management
A. Briefing to advisory group well received
B. One agency directed us to “close up shop”
Forecasting
A. Never implemented
B. Later learned (via colleague) of similar agency effort CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P2, P3, P12; Mnt: P1, P10 (P11); Mng: (P6, P9); Frc: (P7, P10, P11)
Humility, Holism, Balance, and Simple,
but few Discussions or Opportunities,
and Distrust
Communication to Submarines
(SANGUINE)
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1967-1969
Extremely Low Frequency (ELF); 0.25 bits/second!
Modulation/coding of orthogonal waveforms
Defining
Minimum Shift Keying (MSK) utilized
2n orthogonal sequences constructed for length 2n
Monitoring
First principles of electrical engineering emphasized
Management
Tightly controlling program manager orchestrated progress
Forecasting
Shortfall of systems thinking regarding high-power transmitters
CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P1; Mnt: P10; Mng: P7, P11; Frc: (P2)
Humility, Opportunities, Interactive, and
Self-Organization but not Holistic
Bandwidth Efficient Modulations
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1975-1976
Close-packing of Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA)
uplinks
Low “cross-talk”
Defining
Time-domain shapings of modulation signal
End-to-end performance viewpoint was breakthrough learning
Monitoring
Work greatly supported by outside stakeholder
Management
Overseeing managers delighted with findings
Forecasting
Several journal articles and conference papers resulted
Influenced design and development of important satellite system
CCN Prg: P5: OT – Dfn: P6; Mnt: P9; Mng: P10; Frc: P11
Discussions, Trust, Interactive,
and Self-Organization
FH Radios
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1986-1993
Anti-jam radio systems development
Defining
A. Hop much faster to defeat “repeat” jammer
B. U.S. Air Force – U.S. Army interoperable voice/data radio system
Monitoring
A. Hopping rate sufficient to defeat future technology
A. Foreign sales of radio/jamming equipment potential problem
B. Helping contractor “backfired”
Management
A. “Five power” nation collaboration
A. But U.S. hopping algorithm not shared!
B. Internal “witch hunt” Contract terminated for government convenience!
Forecasting
A/B. Nation states concern
A/B. Terrorists not yet on “radar screen”
CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P2, P6; Mnt: P1, P3; Mng: P9, P10; Frc: (P11)
Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions,
Trust, and Interactive but little Self-Organization
Civil Aeronautical Communication
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1993-1997
A. Very High Frequency (VHF) Digital Link Mode 3 (VDL-3)
B. Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B)
Defining
A. VDL-3: Increased capacity in 25-kHz channels
B. ADS-B: Air crews handle situational awareness
Monitoring
A. International standards developed
A. VDL-3 resisted by Europeans and airlines
B. Sweden advocated VDL Mode 4
Management
A. RTCA contentiousness finally resulted in agreed-to waveform
A. ICAO progress aided by author’s efforts
B. ADS-B participants castigated for creating potential vulnerability
Forecasting
A. Insufficient attention paid to economic issues
B. Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) catching on
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P3, P6 P9; Mnt: P1, P2; Mng: P10, P11; Frc: (P5: E)
Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions, Trust,
Interactive, and Self-Organization
but too little Economic
Future Joint Tactical Data Link
(JTDL)
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2010
A. Airborne software-defined radio program
B. Aerial network and future JTDL
Defining
A/B. Performance of wireless portion challenging Aircraft have narrow bandwidths and limited data rates
Still no funding for wide-body directive antennas
Monitoring
A. Growing use of layering
B. Multi-cast algorithms needed to mitigate packet loss
B. Work on redirecting en route aircraft to alternative targets
A/B. Prosecution time budgets becoming more realistic
Management
A/B. More portfolio management of “stove-piped” programs
B. Still trying to control network by “brute force”
Forecasting
A. Uncertainties in program viability still exist
B. Self-adaptive and self-organized networks required for uncertain future Perform more processing locally and transmit only what is needed by decision makers
Greater use of Binary eXtensible Markup Language (XML) reduces data by two orders of magnitude
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P1, P2, P3; Mnt: P13; Mng: P6, P7; Frc: P1, P10, P11
Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions,
Opportunities, Interactive,
Self-Organization, and Layered
Summary
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CSE Principles applied to each aspect of CCN projects
Refer to Table 1 (next chart) and each Pn, where n is nth principle
that applied. Those that should have applied and did not, is shown in parentheses and
in red, as (Pn)
In addition, every row of Table 1 is characterized by the P5 POET factors
Each short phrase in table provides essence of paper’s discussion for that
table cell
No general trend of CSE Principles emerges Only two projects escaped CSE Principles that should have been applied,
viz., Bandwidth Efficient Modulations, and Future JTDL
Author remembers first of these as time of creative career recovery
Recent experience bodes well in developing and implementing future self-
adaptive and self-organizing networks
Principle 12 should play key role in future
Conclusion (Table 1)
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CCN Program Defining Monitoring Management Forecasting
Technical
Intelligence
P5: POET
Politically
dominated but with
special topics P6
Internally processed
intelligence vs. open
literature data P2,P7
Dearth of
information sharing
(P9, P10) P11
Historical
projections and (P1)
information tidbits
Satellite Command
Link P5: POT
Innovative designs
P2, P3, P12
Emergent property
uncovered in testing
P1, P10 (P11)
Inter-organizational
“squabble”
(P6, P9)
Project was “shut
down”
(P7, P10, P11)
SANGUINE
P5: POT
Exploratory analysis
and synthesis
P1
Electrical
engineering
fundamentals P10
Lean with tight
control
P7, P11
Failure to foresee
public repercussions
(P2)
Satellite Band-Pass
Limiter
P5: POT
Exploratory analysis
P1, (P2)
Self-monitoring
through literature
P7
Non-existent
(P4)
Only factor-of-two
gain in performance
P10
Bandwidth Efficient
Modulations
P5: OT
Time-domain
shaping, analysis,
and simulation P6
Considerable
outside interest P9
motivated the work
Engaged oversight
and encouragement
P10
Results influenced
future satellite P11
system development
Satcom
Architectures
P5: POET
Two purposeful
architectures for P1
three user segments
High-level oversight
was prevalent
P5, P7
Politically driven by
control organization
(P3,P6,P9,P10)
EHF cost was large
uncertainty
P2, P5: E
Satellite Multiple
Access
P5: OT
Burgeoning topic
with ample multiple
access schemes
P8
Early adopters were
actively pursuing
techniques
P3, P6
Stakeholders
listened but were
not enthusiastic
(P10)
Networking evolved
along with success
of internet
P7
Frequency-Hopping
(FH) Radios
P5: POT
Hopping rates, FH
algorithms, and
interoperability
P2, P6
FH technology and
foreign military
sales
P1, P3
Autocratic locally
but constructive
progress team-wise
P9, P10
Technology driven
but need diminished
as Wall came down
(P11)
Civil Aeronautical
Communication
P5: POET
Strong negotiations
involving technical
issues P3, P6, P9
Influence of
important
stakeholders P1, P2
Competitive,
collaborative, and
insightful P10, P11
Economic interests
were incompletely
addressed (P5: E)
Military Global
Grid Architecture
P5: POET
Matrix of many
protocols mapped to
architectural layers
P2, P13
Layered
architectures finally
caught on
P6, P7
Informed, practical,
and stimulating
P2, P10, P11
Forward looking
ideas were not sold
to decision makers
(P5: E, P8)
Class of Functions
Architecture
P5: POET
Innovative approach
to more effective
airborne networking
P2, P3
Several duplicative
committees not
talking to each other
(P4, P6)
Inter-organizational
rivalry confused the
roles and missions
(P9)
Network-centric
progress slowed by
command changes
(P10, P11)
Future Joint Tactical
Data Link (JTDL)
P5: POET
Means for increased
data rates are well
understood
P1, P2, P3
Layered C&N
architecture and
experimentation
P13
Program portfolio
and ad hoc
distributed networks
P6 , P7
Self-adaptive and
self-organized
networks
P9, P10 P11
References
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Baldwin, K., et al., “A Model of Systems Engineering in a Systems of Systems Context,” CSER, Redondo Beach, CA, 4-5 April
2008.
Forrester, J.W. “System Dynamics,” circa 1958, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Wright_Forrester.
Francesca, M., “Integrating POET,” 2009 MITRE Innovation Exchange, McLean, VA, 5-7 May 2009,
http://www.mitre.org/news/events/exchange09/9.html,
Gladwell, M., The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Little, Brown and Company, 2000.
Maier, M. W., “Architecting Principles for Systems-of-Systems,” circa 1996, http://www.infoed.com/Open/PAPERS/systems.htm.
Martin, J. N., “Systems are Imaginary―Systems are Not Real: Some Thoughts on the Nature of Systems Thinking,” INCOSE
International Symposium, San Diego, CA, 24 -28 June 2007.
McCarter, B. G., and B. E. White, “Emergence of SoS, sociocognitive aspects,” chapter three in Systems of Systems
Engineering―Principles and Applications, M. Jamshidi, Ed., CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2009, pp. 71-105.
Reiffen, B., and B. E. White, “On Low Crosstalk Data Communication and its Realization by Continuous-Frequency Modulation
Schemes,” IEEE Transactions on Communications, Vol. COM-26, No. 1, January 1978, pp. 131-135.
Sage, A. P., and W. B. Rouse, Handbook of Systems Engineering and Management, 2nd Edition,Wiley, New York, 2009.
Sillitto, H. G., “Design Principles for Ultra-Large-Scale (ULS) Systems,” INCOSE International Symposium, Rosemont, IL, 12-15
July 2010.
Various authors, “ADS-B,” circa 2009, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_surveillance-broadcast.
Various authors, “Manhattan Project,” circa 2005, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project.
Various authors, “Power Laws,” circa 2009, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law.
White, B. E., “On the Construction of N-ary Orthogonal Sequences Under a Continuous-Phase Constraint,” IEEE Transactions
on Information Theory, Vol. IT-19, No. 4, July, 1973, pp. 527-532.
White, B. E., “Systems Engineering Lexicon,” Taylor and Francis Complex and Enterprise Systems Engineering Book Series web
site, 2007, http://www.enterprise-systems-engineering.com/lexicon.htm.
White, B. E., “Complex adaptive systems engineering,” 8th Understanding Complex Systems Symposium, University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign, IL. 12-15 May 2008, http://www.howhy.com/ucs2008/schedule.html.
White, B. E., “Complex Adaptive Systems Engineering (CASE),” IEEE Systems Conference, Vancouver, Canada, 24 March 2009.
Some Acronyms
Complex Systems Engineering (CSE)
Computers, Communications, and Networking (CCN)
[U.S. ] Department of Defense (DoD)
Enterprise and/or Complex (E/C)
Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS)
Political, Operational, Economic, and Technical (POET)
System of Systems (SoS)
Systems Engineering (SE)
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Back-Up Charts
Satellite Band-Pass Limiter
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1973-1974
Lessening “capture” of “bent-pipe” satellite capacity
Defining
Signal processing techniques utilizing Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs)
Clipping peaks (etc.) of power spectrum at satellite
Only doubled capacity with asynchronous signals
Monitoring
Utilized literature for specific investigations
Management
Little support once providing initial idea
Had to work off tea cart during first weeks of employment!
Forecasting
Conference paper resulted but technique not implemented
CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P1(P2); Mnt: P7; Mng: (P4); Frc: (P10)
Humility and Opportunities,
but not Holistic,
Trans-Disciplinary or Interactive,
Satcom Architectures
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1977-1979
Military satellite communication emphasis
Defining
Three-segment (tactical, strategic, and intelligence) satellite system
architecture operating at Ultra High Frequency (UHF), Extremely HF
(EHF), and Super HF (SHF)
Two-segment architecture also debated
Tension between satellite and terminal system program offices (SPOs)
Monitoring
High cost of satellite system programs rated close attention of senior
stakeholders (of DoD, and non-profit and profit contractors)
Management
Politics favored space segment
Solutions that balanced space and terminal segments were elusive
Forecasting
Focus on cost and propagation problems of EHF
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P1; Mnt: P5, P7; Mng: (P3, P6, P9, P10); Frc: P2, P5: E
Humility, Holistic, Opportunities,
and Economic concern
but Unbalanced, few Discussions,
Distrust, and Non-Interactive
Satellite Multiple Access
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1979-1981 Studied random access (RA) (Aloha and Slotted Aloha), Demand Assignment Multiple
Access (DAMA), FDMA, Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA), and Code Division Multiple
Access (CDMA)
Advocated hybrid depending on traffic loading
Defining Slotted Aloha for lightly loaded channels
DAMA for moderately “ “
TDMA for heavily “ “
CDMA had “near-far” problem if too many users
Monitoring Network control was “hot” new area
Skepticism and reluctant support
Problem employee left after being trained
Management Satellite architecture received more attention
Forecasting With internet, “network control” evolved to “network centricity”
CCN Prg: P5: OT – Dfn: P8; Mnt: P3, P6; Mng: (P10); Frc: P7
Balance, Discussions, Opportunities,
and Heuristics but Non-Interactive
Military Global Grid Architecture
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1999-2002 Rejoined communications/networking division
Project Leader
Defining Alternative layered C&N architectures proposed/analyzed
Monitoring Effort to influence other projects in layered principles
Eventually impacted several programs, e.g., software-defined radio system
Management Focused on practical modus operandi; not research oriented
But encouraged/recognized work leading to increased capabilities
Forecasting Advocated specific performance improvements
But these innovative ideas were undersold
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P2, P13; Mnt: P6, P7; Mng: P2, P10, P11; Frc: (P5: E, P8)
Holism, Discussions, Opportunities,
Interactive, Self-Organization, and Layered
but not Economic and no Heuristics
Class of Functions Architecture
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2003 Platform-centric approach leads to N2 problem, for large N
Requirements need periodic updating
Defining Wide-body aircraft have similar functions
Net-centricity: just get into and out of network
Monitoring Little interaction among duplicative committees
Programs concentrated on “vertical” integration
Management Lack of intra-organization cooperation/collaboration
Inter-organizational rivalry caused confusion
Forecasting Changes of officer-in-charge hindered long-term progress
CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P2, P3; Mnt: (P4, P6); Mng: (P9); Frc: (P10, P11)
Holism and Balance, but not Trans-Disciplinary,
few Discussions, Distrust, Non-Interactive,
and no Self-Organization