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A Political Perception Map of A Political Perception Map of the Palestiniansthe Palestinians
HAMANAKA Shingo, Ph.D.HAMANAKA Shingo, Ph.D.
Yamagata University, JAPANYamagata University, JAPAN
World Congress for Middle Eastern Studies,Multiple Identity of the Arab People based on the Results of Recent Poll Survey-Panel
Part 2: Political Perception Map of Arab People
(1) Outline(2) Illustration of a Map
Data and MethodsPolitical Perception Map
(3) AnalysisHypotheses and ProcedureRegressions and Findings
(4) Conclusion
Contents
Research Subject
• Middle Eastern specialists depend on the framework of International Politics, especially “balance of power” or “the modern state system.”
• However, nobody has ever tried to depict the Middle Eastern Regional System explicitly.
• My research subject is to present a visualization of the ME Regional System.
(1) Outline
2
Syrian Political Perception Map - Comparison
Bipolar System
Similarity to the US
Hegemony in the Eastern Arab region
Source: Aoyama and Hamanaka (2009)
(1) Outline
3
Egyptian Political Perception Map - ComparisonSimilarity to the US
Source: Aoyama (2010)
Uruba
Arab System?
Great Powers
Middle Powers?
(1) Outline
4
Political Perception Map of the Palestinians
Great Powers
Middle Eastern Regional System
(1) Outline
Identity and consciousness 5
Constructivism
• This approach proposes that the concept of identity determines interactive process between states.
• My project follows this idea to depict a political perception map by the identities of the Palestinians.
(1) Outline
6
Research Strategy
• I will use Factor Analysis to illustrate the political perception map of Palestinians.
• The map is composed of invisible factors behind the attitudes or opinions on the Middle Eastern Politics.
• In regression models, I will find the effect of ideologies, policy alternatives, and personal information path on Uruba and policy similarity to the US.
(1) Outline
7
Remaining Contents
• (2) Illustration of a Map– Data and Methods– Political Perception Map
• (3) Analysis– Hypotheses and Procedure– Regressions and Findings
• (4) Conclusion
8
Palestinian Survey Data
• Sample: 18-65 year old residents of the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem
• Sampling Method: Stratified three stage random sample of 800 participants
• JMCC conducted face-to-face interviews in May 2009.
(2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods-
9
Questions for Factor Analysis
• “To what extent are the following 23 countries tackling political issues in the ME, thereby helping to establish political stability in the ME?”
(2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods-
10
“To what extent are the following 23 countries tackling political issues in the ME, thereby helping to establish
political stability in the Middle East?”(1)Very much � كثيرًا� جدًا(2)Quite much � كثيرًا(3)Moderately متوسط(4)Not very much ليس كثيرًا(5)Not at all � أبدًا(6)Undecided ال أعرف
1 Turkey (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
2 Iran (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
3 United Kingdom (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
4 Syria (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
5 Russia (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
(2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods-
11
Factor Analysis - Image
Factor loading1st Factor2nd Factor
(2) Illustration of a Map - Data and Methods-
12
Factor Matrixcountries 1st Factor 2nd Factor
Turkey 0.33 0.13Iran 0.47 -0.06UK -0.02 0.78Syria 0.64 -0.11Russia 0.13 0.41Saudi 0.63 0.13Lebanon 0.54 -0.09China -0.03 0.33Iraq 0.39 -0.06France 0.05 0.56Palestine 0.51 0.04S Korea 0.02 -0.04N Korea -0.03 -0.15Israel -0.09 0.76Egypt 0.44 0.39America -0.14 1.04Japan -0.01 0.58Germany 0.04 0.6UAE 0.82 -0.05Qatar 0.82 -0.13Kuwait 0.77 -0.05Jordan 0.6 0.32Canada 0.1 0.36 13
Political Perception Map(2) Illustration of a Map- Political Perception Map-
Great Powers
Middle Eastern Regional System
14
“Identities are not only personal or psychological, but are also social, influenced by the actor’s interaction with others.” S.Telhami and M.Barnett
What do two factors mean?
(2) Illustration of a Map- Political Perception Map-
• The horizontal factor is composed of countries in the Arabian Peninsula, and in the Fertile Crescent. It means Uruba.
• The United States gets the highest score of the vertical factor and Western countries follow the US. It means foreign policy similar to the US.
15
What is the cognitive construct in the Map?
UrubaUruba
Policy similar to the US Policy similar to the US
Identity and PerceptionIdeologies and opinions
(3) Analysis- Hypotheses and Procedure-
16
Implications• The main component of the Map is Uruba.
• Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan occupy the center position of the Map.
• These powers have the gravity in the international system.
• Data analyses support the literature that political ideologies affect the attitudes or opinions on politics.
(4) Conclusion
17
Political Ideologies – ordered scale
1st choice 2nd choice 3rd choice
Arab Nationalism Arab Nationalism Arab Nationalism
Palestinian Nationalism Palestinian Nationalism Palestinian Nationalism
Marxism Marxism Marxism
Islam Islam Islam
Christianity Christianity Christianity
Liberalism Liberalism Liberalism
Tribalism Tribalism Tribalism
Which ideological/ political trends are you sympathized with? Please select up to three trends and put numbers (1,2 or 3) in order of priority.
3 points 2 points 1 point
(3) Analysis- Hypotheses and Procedure-
18
Policy Options – nominal scale
(1) independent Palestinian state in the territories occupied since 1967
Yes No
(2) independent Palestinian state in the historic Palestine Yes No
(3) bi-national state in the Israelis and the Palestinians coexist
Yes No
(4) Returning the Palestinian refugees Yes No
(5) Naturalizing the Palestinian refugees in the countries where they now live
Yes No
(6) Improving the living conditions Yes No
(7) Reconciling the Palestinian political factions Yes No
(8) Disarming the resistance Yes No
(9) Impossible to realize a sustainable peace Yes No
(3) Analysis- Hypotheses and Procedure-
19
Personal Influence – nominal scale(1) Family/relatives Yes No
(2) Neighbors Yes No
(3) Friends and Colleagues Yes No
(4) Superiors at work Yes No
(5) Powerful local figures (tribal sheikhs, notables, zaims) Yes No
(6) Religious leaders Yes No
(7) Members of political parties and militias Yes No
(8) Political leaders (Member of Parliament, local politicians) Yes No
(9) Government Yes No
(10) Media Yes No
(3) Analysis- Hypotheses and Procedure-
20
Media Information – ordered scale1 Local Newspapers, magazines
(1) Regularly
(2) Not Regularly
(3) Moderately
(4) Rarely
(5) Never
2 Newspapers, magazines (other Arab countries)3 Newspapers, magazines (other non-Arab)4 Regular TV (local)5 Satellite TV (of other Arab countries)6 Satellite TV (of other non-Arab countries)7 Radio (local)8 Radio (of other Arab countries)9 Radio (of other non- Arab countries)10 Internet11 SMS, E-mail12 Telephone13 Through words of mouth (direct communication)
(3) Analysis- Hypotheses and Procedure-
21
Regression Models on Uruba
Political Ideologies Political Ideologies Political Ideologies Arab Nationalism 0.079 (0.048) Arab Nationalism 0.107 (0.046) ** Arab Nationalism 0.099 (0.047) ** Palestine Nationalism 0.063 (0.047) Palestine Nationalism 0.069 (0.046) Palestine Nationalism 0.075 (0.047) Islam 0.184 (0.047) *** Islam 0.177 (0.045) *** Islam 0.165 (0.045) ***Policy Alternatives Personal Influence Media (1)Palestine States 0.095 (0.102) Family -0.094 (0.086) Local Newspapars 0.046 (0.024) * (2)Historical Palestine 0.271 (0.108) ** Neighbors 0.243 (0.098) ** Newspaars (Arab) -0.050 (0.033) (3)Bi-National State 0.140 (0.080) * Friends -0.009 (0.067) Newspaars (non-Arab) -0.015 (0.043) (4)Return of Refugee 0.153 (0.135) Superiors at work -0.103 (0.054) * Regular TV (Local) 0.029 (0.020) (5)Naturalization of Refugee 0.156 (0.093) * Local strongman -0.049 (0.055) Satellite TV (Arab) 0.107 (0.029) *** (6)Improvement of Living 0.042 (0.155) Religious Leaders -0.022 (0.065) Satellite TV (non-Arab) 0.005 (0.020) (7)Reconciliation of factions 0.153 (0.088) * Political Party menber 0.044 (0.041) Radio (Local) -0.038 (0.020) * (8)Disarmament of Resistance -0.307 (0.091) *** Politicians -0.063 (0.046) Radio (Arab) 0.003 (0.022) (9)Impossible to resolve -0.109 (0.074) Government -0.325 (0.076) *** Radio (non-Arab) 0.057 (0.027) **constatnt -1.787 (0.364) *** Media 0.007 (0.058) Internet -0.051 (0.027) *
constatnt -0.415 (0.357) SMS, E-mail -0.018 (0.028) Telephone 0.020 (0.022) Oral Commnication 0.040 (0.024) *constant -1.730 (0.352) ***
R-squared 0.103 R-squared 0.121 R-squared 0.114N 731 N 756 N 756
Note: * denotes significance at the .10 level; **, at the .05 level; ***, at the .01 level.
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
(3) Analysis- Regressions and Findings-
22
Results of the regression models
• Both Arab nationalism and Islam have a statistically significant impact on Uruba.
• Positive Impact on Uruba– Support a state in the historical Palestine– Under the influence of neighbors– Getting information from Arab Satellite TV
• Negative Impact on Uruba– Support disarmament of resistance– Under the influence of the Government
(3) Analysis- Regressions and Findings-
23
Regressions on policy similar to the US
Political Ideologies Political Ideologies Political Ideologies Arab Nationalism -0.104 (0.046) ** Arab Nationalism -0.126 (0.047) *** Arab Nationalism -0.102 (0.046) ** Palestine Nationalism -0.037 (0.046) Palestine Nationalism -0.034 (0.047) Palestine Nationalism -0.022 (0.045) Islam -0.041 (0.045) Islam -0.113 (0.045) ** Islam -0.116 (0.044) ***Policy Alternatives Personal Influence Media (1)Palestine States 0.016 (0.099) Family -0.008 (0.087) Local Newspapars 0.014 (0.024) (2)Historical Palestine 0.011 (0.104) Neighbors 0.153 (0.100) Newspaars (Arab) -0.062 (0.032) * (3)Bi-National State 0.505 (0.077) *** Friends -0.096 (0.067) Newspaars (non-Arab) 0.026 (0.042) (4)Return of Refugee -0.296 (0.130) ** Superiors at work -0.017 (0.055) Regular TV (Local) -0.050 (0.019) ** (5)Naturalization of Refugee -0.144 (0.089) Local strongman -0.094 (0.055) * Satellite TV (Arab) -0.027 (0.028) (6)Improvement of Living -0.311 (0.149) ** Religious Leaders 0.065 (0.066) Satellite TV (non-Arab) 0.079 (0.020) *** (7)Reconciliation of factions 0.170 (0.085) ** Political Party menber -0.045 (0.042) Radio (Local) 0.005 (0.020) (8)Disarmament of Resistance 0.266 (0.088) *** Politicians -0.077 (0.046) * Radio (Arab) 0.037 (0.022) * (9)Impossible to resolve -0.134 (0.072) * Government 0.061 (0.077) Radio (non-Arab) 0.075 (0.027) ***constatnt 0.786 (0.351) ** Media -0.067 (0.059) Internet 0.002 (0.027)
constatnt 1.058 (0.361) *** SMS, E-mail -0.063 (0.028) ** Telephone -0.039 (0.022) * Oral Commnication 0.094 (0.023) ***constant 0.608 (0.343) *
R-squared 0.163 R-squared 0.087 R-squared 0.147N 731 N 756 N 756
Note: * denotes significance at the .10 level; **, at the .05 level; ***, at the .01 level.
Model 4 Model 5 Model 6
(3) Analysis- Regressions and Findings-
24
Results of the regression models• Both Arab nationalism and Islam have a
negative impact on policies similar to the US.
• The direction of policy alternatives is almost same as them of the US.– Bi-National State, and Disarmament are positive– Return of Refugee, and Improvement of Living
are negative
• Non-Arab media watchers and listeners are positive to Middle East policies of the US.
(3) Analysis- Regressions and Findings-
25
