Vermont Weather Analytics Center A project to increase grid resiliency

and accelerate renewables integration

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Vermont Weather Analytics Center Outline

• VELCO-IBM Joint Development Agreement

• IBM Deep Thunder • Background • Model Specifications • Deep Thunder vs. Traditional Weather Models • Capabilities • DT Portal Interface • Verification

• VELCO – Lyndon State College Partnership • Progress to Date • Upcoming Work

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VELCO-IBM JDA/Partnership Overview

• JDA is a two year research agreement with IBM • Objectives of the research include:

• Increase grid reliability, • Better balance electrical supply and demand, and • Better integrate renewable energy into the Transco grid

• Efforts are focused on four software modes and Hardware/Software:

• Predictive weather model (Deep Thunder) • Electric Demand Forecast Model • Renewable Generation Forecast Model • Renewable Integration Stochastic Engine (RISE) • Hardware/Software

Photo: Andrew Gimino

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Weather Analytics Center Project – two-year undertaking to develop intellectual property using coupled data models and related software. Purpose is to increase grid reliability, lower weather event-related operational costs and optimize utilization of renewable generation resources. Utilizes four models: • Deep Thunder: produce accurate weather forecasts up to 48 hours

in advance down to 2 sqkm – lower weather event costs

• Demand Forecast Model: increase accuracy of state load forecasts – better plan for future needs

• Renewable Forecast Model: produce generation forecasts for

solar and wind farms – improve power supply/planning • Renewable Integration Stochastic Engine (RISE): integrates the

results of the aforementioned models to optimize the value of Vermont's generation, demand response, and transmission assets

VELCO-IBM Research Partnership First Project:

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• Name originated from IBM Deep Blue (chess computer) • Project began in 1995 • First application provided forecasts for 1996 Olympics in

Atlanta, GA • Operated out of Thomas J. Watson Research Center in

Yorktown Heights, NY (IBM Research HQ) • Current applications:

– Utilities – Agriculture – International sporting events

IBM Deep Thunder Background:

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• Public weather data cannot predict 24 hours out (with reasonable confidence) the wind speed or solar output at a specific location in 10 minute intervals

• Using supercomputing, extensive customizations/parameterizations, and leading-edge analytics, Deep Thunder can produce high resolution/hyper-local forecasts for Vermont that will ultimately improve: – Resiliency – Response – Renewables

• Better model better forecasts better decision-making (i.e. save more money)

IBM Deep Thunder Background:

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• Utilizes WRF model (Weather Research & Forecasting) • Forecast length: 48 hours • Frequency: 2 runs/day • Availability: 0800 and 1500 hrs (tentative) • Resolution: 2 km at 10 min intervals (currently evaluating 1-2 km)

VTWAC Model Suite

IBM Deep Thunder Model Specifications:

Deep Thunder Demand Renewable

Renewable Integrated Stochastic

Engine (RISE)

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Model Scale Forecast Length Resolution Interval

GFS Synoptic 384 hrs (16 days) 27-35 km 3 hours

CMC (Canadian) Synoptic 240 hrs

(10 days) 25 km 3 hours

ECMWF (European) Synoptic 240 hrs

(10 days) 16 km 6 hours

NAM Mesoscale 84 hrs (3.5 days) 12 km 3 hours

Deep Thunder Mesoscale 48 hrs *2 km 10 mins

*evaluating 1-2 km

IBM Deep Thunder Deep Thunder vs. Traditional Weather Models:

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2 km Resolution (Deep Thunder)

16 km Resolution (i.e. European Model)

IBM Deep Thunder Model Specifications:

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VELCO-IBM Research Partnership Model Specifications:

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IBM Deep Thunder Capabilities

• Temperature • Liquid precipitation • Pressure • Wet bulb • Dew point • Wind speed

• Wind chill • Heat index • Wind gusts • Cloud water density • Cloud height • Visibility • Shortwave radiation • Precipitation rate • Accumulated precipitation • Snowfall rate • Snowfall depth • Freezing rain* • Surface runoff • Maximum reflectivity

*Future model addition

Additional DT Parameters Typical Model Parameters

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Weather forecasting toolkit

Global Global forecast models GFS, European, Canadian, etc.

Climate trends El Nino, La Nina, etc.

Regional Regional forecast models NAM

Local High Resolution: Deep Thunder

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• Compared observed temperatures (Rutland Airport) to

model forecasts during the period of 7/25/14 02:00 – 7/26/12 02:00 (06Z Forecast) – Euro – GFS – NAM – Deep Thunder

IBM Deep Thunder Verification

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IBM Deep Thunder Verification – Non-Event (Control)

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IBM Deep Thunder Verification – Non-Event (Control)

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Low GFS: 53 Obs: 50

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High DT: 77 Obs: 77

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11/19/201

IBM Deep Thunder Verification – Non-Event (Control)

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IBM Deep Thunder 7/8/14 – Severe Thunderstorm Event

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IBM Deep Thunder 7/8/14 – Severe Thunderstorm Event – DT Portal Interface

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IBM Deep Thunder 7/8/14 – Severe Thunderstorm Event – DT Portal Interface

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• Project partners — In addition to our electric utility owners, project stakeholders include the State of Vermont, Lyndon State College, Vermont Electric Power Producers, Inc., UVM and ISO-NE

• LSC: Conduct applied research connecting major storms to power outages - major outcomes:

– Develop database linking impacts (outages) and historic weather events – Test and develop different approaches to predicting major weather

systems’ impacts on VELCO and Distribution utility systems

• Examine climate (long-term) forecasts of renewable energy resources in Vermont – major outcomes:

– Develop local climate forecast datasets that can be valuable to Vermont’s utilities, energy, agriculture

– Determine how solar and wind resources may change through the year 2100

Vermont Weather Analytics Center Collaboration is Key

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Vermont Weather Analytics Center LSC Storm Example: Sever Thunderstorms and Outages

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• Renewable Integration Stochastic (RISE) scope development continues

• Entire VTWAC team have been given access to DT Portal and have begun to provide initial feedback to portal interface

• VTWAC 2nd workshop was held October 16th at VELCO • Team representatives have met with VTrans • Gap analysis completed to identify weather observation gaps • Finalize locations and system layout for weather stations and

submitted order • Evaluation and testing of model at higher resolution to improve

accuracy (1-2km)

Vermont Weather Analytics Center Progress to Date

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• Lyndon State College conducting research connecting major storms to power outages

• Renewable integration demo scheduled for early December • Deep Thunder users’ group • Finalize model configurations and parameterizations

– Resolution (1-2km) – Forecast delivery times

• Provide further feedback and recommendations on portal interface considering various needs of end-users

• Perform retrospective analyses on significant events with a focus on renewables and train with current model

• Continue model verification

Vermont Weather Analytics Center Upcoming Work

11/19/2014

Questions?

Mary E. Coombs VTWAC Project Manager

Vermont Electric Power Company (VELCO) Email: mcoombs@velco.com

Work: (802) 770-6253