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A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY, 1700–1855 MICHAEL CHENOWETH Independent Scholar, 6816 Ducketts Lane, Elkridge, Maryland 21075, USA E-mail: [email protected] Abstract. The chronological table of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced by Andr´ es Poey in 1855 is the foundation stone for present-day knowledge of historical Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Subsequent researchers have used his table and built upon it, rejecting some of his entries, modifying others, and accepting the rest. A re-analysis of the 1700–1855 portion of Poey’s original published list was made using historical newspaper accounts, weather diaries, and ships’ logbooks. Of the 348 separate entries in Poey’s original list, 149 were rejected and 198 accepted. Due to errors in dating and location, and the linking of separate entries as parts of the same storm, only 170 of the 198 accepted entries are unique storms. Thirteen undated storms of the remaining 170 are now dated. The authorities cited by Poey vary in their reliability. Of those cited 10 or more times, there was an average of one incorrect citation for every 3.1 correct citations. The most and least reliable authorities used by Poey are identified. An updated corrected chronology from all published sources is presented and includes 383 unique storms through 1855. 1. Introduction Hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean have threatened the inhabitants of the region for thousands of years. Written records from European witnesses to these storms date from the voyages of Christopher Columbus. The Spanish, French, English, Dutch, and other Europeans soon discovered the destructiveness of these storms and numerous accounts of the misfortunes brought to mariners and colonists were reported to their home countries. When the first histories of the Caribbean colonies were written, hurricanes often were mentioned as important events in their history. Du Tertre (1667) mentioned twelve storms in the Lesser Antilles between 1642 and 1666 and his accounts are the main source we have for this time period. Other historians and almanac makers produced local chronologies over the years. Long (1774) apparently used one or more of these accounts to produce his modest list of hurricanes in the Caribbean region. Bryan Edwards’s The history, civil and commercial, of the British Colonies in the West Indies first published in 1805, listed 18 separate storms. Poey (1855) considered Moreau de Jonn` es’s chronology of 1822 to be the first chronological list to attempt to document all of the known hurricanes in the West Indies dating back to 1495. Southey (1827) produced an important list of hurricanes. He also appears to be the first person to use the newspaper collections of the Reverend Dr. Charles Burney, purchased by the British Museum in 1818. This collection is the core of the Climatic Change (2006) DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-9005-2 c Springer 2006

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Page 1: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICALCYCLONE ACTIVITY, 1700–1855

MICHAEL CHENOWETH

Independent Scholar, 6816 Ducketts Lane, Elkridge, Maryland 21075, USAE-mail: [email protected]

Abstract. The chronological table of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced by Andres Poey in

1855 is the foundation stone for present-day knowledge of historical Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

Subsequent researchers have used his table and built upon it, rejecting some of his entries, modifying

others, and accepting the rest. A re-analysis of the 1700–1855 portion of Poey’s original published

list was made using historical newspaper accounts, weather diaries, and ships’ logbooks. Of the 348

separate entries in Poey’s original list, 149 were rejected and 198 accepted. Due to errors in dating

and location, and the linking of separate entries as parts of the same storm, only 170 of the 198

accepted entries are unique storms. Thirteen undated storms of the remaining 170 are now dated. The

authorities cited by Poey vary in their reliability. Of those cited 10 or more times, there was an average

of one incorrect citation for every 3.1 correct citations. The most and least reliable authorities used

by Poey are identified. An updated corrected chronology from all published sources is presented and

includes 383 unique storms through 1855.

1. Introduction

Hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean have threatened the inhabitantsof the region for thousands of years. Written records from European witnesses tothese storms date from the voyages of Christopher Columbus. The Spanish, French,English, Dutch, and other Europeans soon discovered the destructiveness of thesestorms and numerous accounts of the misfortunes brought to mariners and colonistswere reported to their home countries.

When the first histories of the Caribbean colonies were written, hurricanes oftenwere mentioned as important events in their history. Du Tertre (1667) mentionedtwelve storms in the Lesser Antilles between 1642 and 1666 and his accounts arethe main source we have for this time period. Other historians and almanac makersproduced local chronologies over the years. Long (1774) apparently used one ormore of these accounts to produce his modest list of hurricanes in the Caribbeanregion. Bryan Edwards’s The history, civil and commercial, of the British Coloniesin the West Indies first published in 1805, listed 18 separate storms. Poey (1855)considered Moreau de Jonnes’s chronology of 1822 to be the first chronological listto attempt to document all of the known hurricanes in the West Indies dating backto 1495. Southey (1827) produced an important list of hurricanes. He also appearsto be the first person to use the newspaper collections of the Reverend Dr. CharlesBurney, purchased by the British Museum in 1818. This collection is the core of the

Climatic Change (2006)

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-9005-2 c© Springer 2006

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M. CHENOWETH

British Library Newspaper Library collection today. Subsequent lists tended to relyheavily on pre-existing chronologies (Evans, 1848; Schomburgk, 1848; Johnston,1855; Poey, 1855).

By the time Poey produced his 1855 chronology, the scientific investigation oftropical cyclones had been underway for more than three decades. Sir William Reid(1838, 1849), William Redfield (1831, 1854), and Henry Piddington (1848) werethe most important researchers publishing their results at this time. None of themproduced a chronology as such, but Poey drew on their work to supplement his list.He spent time in New York with Redfield copying out all of the notes on stormsthat Redfield possessed (Poey, 1855).

The list of Poey is a famous document for students of tropical meteorology.Since 1855, dozens of authors have used his list to produce their own updatedlists of hurricanes and tropical storms. Tannehill (1938) used Poey’s list (and thosemade since Poey’s time) in his updating of the Atlantic basin hurricane history,omitting all storms in the months of December through May that were includedin Poey’s list. This was done because it was well known by this time that tropicalcyclones in these months are very rare and the number too great in the historicalrecord to be accurate. Subsequent work by Millas (1968) confirmed the datingerrors from English sources prior to 1752 due to the late acceptance of the Gre-gorian calendar in England, relative to that of France and Spain. He also madethe first critical analysis of the sources used by Poey, rejecting some storms, andincluding new storms made by his own research. Ludlum (1963) constructed thebest chronology of landfalling tropical cyclones in the United States; a number ofthese storms can be associated with their earlier history in the Caribbean region.Fernandez-Partagas and Diaz (1995a,b, 1996a,b,c, 1997, 1999) make critical ref-erence to Tannehill’s (and, therefore, Poey for 1851 to 1855) chronology in theirdocumentation of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1851–1910. Their results areavailable on-line at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/hurdat pub.html. Like-wise, Rappaport and Fernandez-Partagas (1995) also drew on the same secondarysources. These sources are carried into the North Atlantic hurricane database knownas HURDAT (Landsea et al., 2004), and an assessment of their reliability based onnew information was made.

2. The Need to Re-Analyze the Poey Chronology

The importance of the Poey chronology lies in its persistent use for nearly 150 years.The accuracy of the historical record is important for many research communities.Attempts to reconstruct long-term variability in Atlantic basin hurricanes (e.g.,Walsh and Reading, 1991) assume that the available record in populated regionsof the Caribbean is largely complete since about 1650, which is highly unlikely.Boose et al. (2004) use some of these sources in their work on hurricane impactson Puerto Rican tropical rain forest ecology. Paleohurricane studies using proxy

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

data are dependent on accurate historical records for evaluating strike probabilitiesover time (Liu, 2004; Donnelly et al., 2001; Liu and Fearn, 2000). The insuranceindustry also requires accurate information of hurricane occurrences (Malmquist,1998; Elsner and Kara, 1999).

The use of primary source documents is the most accurate way to rediscoverhistorical tropical cyclones. Redfield, Reid and Piddington all used such sources,particularly ships’ logbooks, to track tropical cyclones in different parts of the world.More recently, Ludlum (1963), Fernandez-Partagas and Diaz (1995a,b, 1996a,b,1997, 1999), Rappaport and Fernandez-Partagas (1995), Rappaport and Ruffman(1999), Sandrik and Landsea (2003), Chenoweth (2003), Mock (2004) and Garcia-Herrera et al. (2005) have used a variety of primary source documents to reconstructindividual storms and local time series of tropical storms and hurricanes. During thecourse of investigating Jamaican tropical cyclones, evidence was found that manyof the accepted accounts of historical tropical cyclones were in error (Chenoweth,2003). The high frequency of errors led to a more detailed search for new informa-tion to determine the reliability of the Poey chronology, and subsequent work thathas relied on Poey and/or the sources he consulted.

3. Poey’s Record

The original list of Poey, published in the Journal of the Royal Geographical Societyin 1855, contains 401 separate entries of “cyclonic hurricanes” from 1493 through1855. The dates, localities affected, and the authorities cited are included, along withfootnotes of additional information and analysis. Poey suspected, usually correctly,that some individual entries were probably related to adjacent entries in the sameyear but he made no effort to narrow down his original count. He also notes conflictson dates of storms between different sources. Dozens of authorities are cited; manyprovide information on only one hurricane. Only fifteen sources provide ten or moredifferent entries. Poey did not investigate the degree to which later authors used thesame sources. The result is the apparent large number of citations for individualstorms, which ultimately derive from a single or very small number of sources.The reliability of the most important sources used by Poey will be documented inSection 6.

4. Source Documents

The original source for Atlantic basin hurricanes is still not always discernible.Judging from sources mentioned in Poey, historians most often used secondarysources for the majority of cases in the 18th and early 19th centuries. The ultimatesources are most often newspaper accounts. Different newspapers often used thesame original colonial newspaper account. The exact source may not be known, but

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M. CHENOWETH

in such instances when details are given they can be compared with the newspaperaccounts and a source confirmed. Millas (1968) quotes the Annual Register and TheGentleman’s Magazine as two sources that were used by early hurricane chroniclersin the mid and late 18th century. These were indeed used but both tended to providea reduced and edited version that appeared in full in other contemporary Englishnewspapers. Private letters were often published in newspapers giving additionalinformation. Major disasters to naval fleets often received extensive press attentionin the official government accounts of European countries. Ship logbook accountsbecome more frequent in appearance in 19th century newspapers. Mariners oftenbrought accounts of storms encountered at sea to the press in ports throughout theregion. Redfield, Reid and Piddington used such press clippings to gather much oftheir marine data.

The main weakness of newspaper accounts, particularly those carrying ac-counts of storms elsewhere, is the risk of inaccurate information being propagatedany number of ways. Incorrect information passed from the original source, orthrough misunderstanding by the reporter, could introduce an error in fact at thefirst point. Typeset could be incorrectly inserted by a hurried or inattentive type-setter. The newspaper item could be picked up by a neighboring newspaper andgarbled and this could then be picked up by other sources. Some accounts omitdates and locations, or are vague about the exact time and place of a storm. Insome instances, information that is known to be possibly vague is later found tobe in error. This requires a more thorough search of newspapers beyond an ini-tial report. A good example of this is reporting on a 1779 tropical cyclone thatpassed some distance off the South Carolina coast in September of that year.Millas (1968) places the storm near Charles Town, the island of Nevis in theLesser Antilles, when in fact his source is discussing Charles Town [Charleston]in South Carolina. Information in the original accounts is vague, involving thesearch of the British Navy for the French Fleet intent on invading the Americancolonies during the American Revolutionary War. Hence, Millas made a bad as-sumption based only on the port’s name and introduced a major error into hischronology.

Most Caribbean newspapers from the 18th century no longer exist. Accountsmust be drawn from other newspapers that republished their original accounts. An-other primary source document is ships’ logbooks, which remain in great numbersfor the entire 1700–1855 period (Chenoweth, 1996; see also www.nmm.ac.uk foran excellent introduction to ships’ logbooks in the Climate of the World’s Oceans(CLIWOC) section). These records fill in the newspaper gap and are extremelyuseful for verifying the existence of a tropical cyclone. They provide wind andweather data at sub-hourly to daily resolution, which is invaluable in determiningprevailing synoptic weather conditions. Their main limitation can be their failure tomake any mention of land-based storm damage, which newspaper accounts providein greater detail. In fact, both records are excellent sources that add to the other.When a newspaper record is unavailable, the logbook record must be scrutinized

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

more closely to infer the potential damage done from the weather reports includedin the logbook.

While newspapers and logbooks are important sources of information it shouldbe pointed out that many other archive sources remain to be examined. The hugerecord of the British Colonial Office provides accounts from all of the colonies on awide range of topics concerning the important political and economic affairs of thecolonies, including storm damage from hurricanes. Likewise, similar Spanish colo-nial records are beginning to yield invaluable information on Atlantic hurricanes,especially in the Spanish colonies (e.g. Garcia-Herrera et al., 2005). In terms oflength of record, Spanish records have potential to provide the longest local time se-ries. A truly comprehensive record of Atlantic hurricanes will require examinationof all European and former colonial archives.

5. Data and Methods

Newspaper accounts for the period 1700–1855 were consulted from newspaperarchives in the U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, DC, the University ofMaryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, inLondon as well as newspapers included in the records of the Colonial Office inthe UK National Archives, London. Scores of different newspapers were used andare too numerous to enumerate here. A few of the titles read include The BostonNews Letter (1705–1775), The Pennsylvania Gazette (1729–1776, 1783–1792);Lloyd’s List (1740–1855), London Times (1785–1855), Jamaica Royal Gazette(1778–1781; 1811–1838); The Royal Gazette and Bahama Advertiser (1804–1811,1813–1837); Diario de la Marina (Havana) (1844–1855) to name only a fewnewspapers. A total of 5,606 newspaper accounts were used. Due to duplica-tion of original sources in other newspapers, the estimated number of “unique”accounts is 3,447, after adjusting for duplications and probable same sources be-ing used in other press accounts. British Navy ships’ logbooks were used to sup-plement newspaper coverage. These logbooks are available at the U.K. NationalArchives in London. Additional logbook data were obtained from other archivesin the United States archives (US National Archives, Washington, DC; MysticSeaport Museum, Mystic, Connecticut; Old Dartmouth Whaling Museum, NewBedford, Massachusetts; Peabody Essex Museum, Salem, Massachusetts). Fourhundred and fifty-six logbook records were used in the re-analysis of the Poeychronology. Precisely dated logbook entries allow for improved temporal and spa-tial continuity in tracking individual storms and detecting potential associations(or their absence) in the mapping and plotting of individual tropical cyclones. De-tails in press coverage were compared with accounts published in Poey (1855),Ludlum (1963), Millas (1968), Mock (2004) and Garcia-Herrera et al. (2005). Ina number of instances, the same (unattributed) newspaper account that was cited

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M. CHENOWETH

in the original source was found in the English press. Such sources are likelythe original record from which all subsequent accounts are originally based. Ta-ble I lists the original Poey entries, with a column indicating whether or not thestorm was accepted or rejected and another column indicating the reason for itsstatus.

The period 1700–1855 was chosen for several reasons. First, the great majorityof the storms listed by Poey occur after 1700. Secondly, English language sourcesare easily available and abundant from 1700 onward; newspapers in England beganto proliferate in number after 1695, following the end of royal licensing with the firstdaily newspaper established in 1703 (Rogers, 2003). Thirdly, newspaper publishingin North America began on a regular basis about the same time. Fourth, logbookrecords are abundant since 1670 from English sources. Using the Poey record, theseprimary sources were used to check the chronology for accuracy in the date andlocation of tropical cyclones.

The Poey record was entered into a database. This record was compared againsta separate record of tropical cyclones from original sources cited above, alongwith daily weather records kept in Jamaica from 1750–1786 (Chenoweth, 2003),St. Eustatia from 1787–1793 (Fahlberg MS Met Obs obtained from the RoyalAcademy of Sweden), Nassau, Bahamas from 1812–1840 (Chenoweth, 1998),and other shorter weather records. Together, they constitute the most compre-hensive collection of daily weather data from the tropical Atlantic for this timeperiod.

Storms included in Poey’s list were considered to be in error for the followingreasons. (1) absence of independent evidence from primary sources; (2) incorrectyears, but correct date; (3) correct dating, but incorrect location; (4) cited sourcefailed to mention weather as a cause of a disaster; (5) correct day of month, butwrong month; (6) date and location are correct, but weather was not associated witha tropical cyclone (e.g., heavy flooding from a thunderstorm).

Storms were accepted even when some errors were evident. These include (1)correct location and month (or just year) without a given day of month which fits,or could plausibly link with independent data; (2) deviations of plus or minus oneday from the actual date of maximum storm impact; (3) incorrectly linked storms,but based on otherwise accurate accounts; (4) dates given in old style Julian form,but correct when converted to the modern Gregorian calendar.

Reasons for rejection of the storms were most frequently due to garbled dates.Very frequently the year was incorrect, often offset by a single year. In some in-stances, the digits in the date were transposed or omitted. Errors in the month, butwith a correct day, were common; a few errors were off by one week. This indi-cates that the original source may have made a reference to the day of the weekof the storm, which was correct, but the day of the month was in error for somereason. In some instances, the date was correct, but the location completely in error(“July 27, 1805 – Jamaica” as cited by Poey from Schomburgk’s work is actuallya storm encountered in the North Atlantic on this date by the fleet sailing from

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

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len

dar

17

47

Oct

.2

4S

t.C

hri

sto

ph

er,

Lee

war

dIs

lan

ds

Acc

epte

d3

32

5N

ov.

4in

Gre

go

rian

cale

nd

ar

17

51

Mar

.7

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d3

4N

on

-tro

pic

alsy

stem

17

51

Au

g.1

0Ja

mai

caR

ejec

ted

35

Gar

ble

dd

ate

17

51

Sep

t.2

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d3

5G

arb

led

dat

e

17

51

Sep

t.1

5S

t.D

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

35

Co

rrec

td

ate,

wro

ng

loca

tio

n

17

51

Oct

.Ja

mai

ca,S

t.D

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

35

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

52

Sep

t.C

har

lest

on

,U

.S.

Acc

epte

d3

62

6

17

53

Sep

t.1

5C

har

lest

on

,U

.S.

Rej

ecte

d3

6G

arb

leo

fS

epte

mb

er1

4,

17

52

hu

rric

ane

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tinu

edon

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)

Page 9: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

LE

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

Acc

epte

d

sto

rmst

orm

Yea

rD

ate

Lo

cali

ties

Sta

tus

Nu

mb

erN

um

ber

Rea

son

for

reje

cted

stat

us

17

54

Sep

t.S

t.D

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

37

27

17

56

Au

g.2

3B

arb

ado

sR

ejec

ted

38

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks;

mis

dat

ed1

75

8st

orm

17

56

Sep

t.1

2M

arti

niq

ue

Acc

epte

d3

92

8

17

57

no

dat

eF

lori

da

toB

ost

on

Acc

epte

d4

02

9

17

57

Au

g.2

9B

arb

ado

sR

ejec

ted

41

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

58

Au

g.2

3B

arb

ado

s,S

ou

thC

aro

lin

a,U

.S.

Acc

epte

d3

83

0C

orr

ect

dat

efo

rB

arb

ado

s;n

oS

.C.st

orm

17

59

Sep

t.G

ulf

of

Mex

ico

Acc

epte

d4

23

1

17

61

May

4C

har

lest

on

,U

.S.

Rej

ecte

d4

3T

orn

ado

17

61

Jun

e1

Ch

arle

sto

n,U

.S.

Rej

ecte

d4

3N

oev

iden

cein

log

bo

ok

so

rn

ewsp

aper

s

17

62

Dec

.9

Car

tag

ena

Rej

ecte

d4

4In

corr

ect

Yea

r

17

65

July

31

Mar

tin

iqu

e,S

t.E

ust

atiu

s,G

uad

elo

up

eA

ccep

ted

45

32

17

65

Sep

t.M

arti

niq

ue,

Gu

adel

ou

pe,

St.

Ch

rist

op

her

Rej

ecte

d4

5C

on

fuse

dw

ith

July

31

sto

rm

17

65

Nov.

13

,1

4S

t.D

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

46

33

17

66

Au

g.1

3,

14

Mar

tin

iqu

eA

ccep

ted

47

34

17

66

Au

g.1

6W

est

of

Jam

aica

Acc

epte

d4

73

4

17

66

Sep

t.1

1V

irg

inia

,U

.S.

Acc

epte

d4

83

5

17

66

Sep

t.1

3–

15

St.

Ch

rist

ova

l,M

on

tser

rat

Rej

ecte

d4

93

6In

corr

ect

dat

es

1766

Sep

t.21

St.

Eust

atiu

s,T

ort

uga

Acc

epte

d49

36

Dat

eis

corr

ect

only

for

Tort

uga

17

66

Oct

.6

Do

min

ica,

St.

Eu

stat

ius,

Gu

adel

ou

pe

Acc

epte

d5

03

7

17

66

Oct

.2

2P

ensa

cola

Acc

epte

d5

13

8

17

68

Au

g.1

2G

ren

ada

Rej

ecte

d5

2M

is-d

ated

;h

app

ened

on

10

Au

gu

st

17

68

Oct

.1

5C

ub

aA

ccep

ted

53

39

17

69

Oct

.2

5C

ub

a(H

avan

a)R

ejec

ted

53

Co

nfu

sed

wit

h1

5O

cto

ber

sto

rm

(Con

tinu

edon

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)

Page 10: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETHT

AB

LE

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

Acc

epte

d

sto

rmst

orm

Yea

rD

ate

Lo

cali

ties

Sta

tus

Nu

mb

erN

um

ber

Rea

son

for

reje

cted

stat

us

17

69

Au

g.3

0W

est

of

Flo

rid

aR

ejec

ted

54

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

17

69

Oct

.2

9E

ast

of

Flo

rid

aR

ejec

ted

55

No

evid

ence

inn

ewsp

aper

s

17

70

Jun

e6

.C

har

lest

on

Acc

epte

d5

64

0

17

71

Au

g.

St.

Eu

stat

ius

Rej

ecte

d5

7N

oev

iden

cein

log

bo

ok

s

17

72

Au

g.4

St.

Do

min

go

Acc

epte

d5

84

1

17

72

Au

g.1

6C

ub

a?

(St.

Jag

o)

Rej

ecte

d5

9In

corr

ect

dat

e

17

72

Au

g.1

7A

nti

gu

aR

ejec

ted

60

Gar

ble

of

corr

ect

27

–2

8A

ug

ust

dat

e

17

72

Au

g.2

8P

ort

oR

ico

,Ja

mai

caR

ejec

ted

60

42

Pu

erto

Ric

ois

Au

g.3

1;

no

sto

rmat

Jam

aica

17

72

Au

g.3

1L

eew

ard

and

Vir

gin

Isla

nd

s,A

nti

gu

aA

ccep

ted

60

42

17

72

Sep

t.1

–4

Do

min

ica,

St.

Do

min

go

Rej

ecte

d6

04

2B

add

ates

;d

etai

lsar

efo

rab

ove

sto

rm

17

72

Nov.

22

St.

Ch

rist

op

her

,S

t.E

ust

atiu

sR

ejec

ted

61

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

73

July

St.

Th

om

as,C

ub

aA

ccep

ted

62

43

No

evid

ence

for

St.

Th

om

as

17

73

Au

g.

Bo

sto

nR

ejec

ted

63

No

evid

ence

inn

ewsp

aper

s

17

74

Sep

t.6

Gu

adel

ou

pe

Rej

ecte

d6

4In

corr

ect

yea

r

17

74

Oct

.2

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d6

5N

oev

iden

cein

Th

istl

ewo

od

MS

wea

ther

reco

rd

17

75

July

30

St.

Cro

ix,M

arti

niq

ue

Acc

epte

d6

64

4

17

75

Au

g.2

5M

arti

niq

ue

Acc

epte

d6

74

5

17

75

Au

g.2

7S

t.D

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

67

45

17

75

Sep

t.1

4C

ub

a,S

t.D

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

68

Gar

ble

dac

cou

nt

17

75

Oct

.1

6S

t.C

hri

sto

ph

erA

ccep

ted

69

46

17

76

Sep

t.4

An

tig

ua,

Mar

tin

iqu

e,G

uad

elo

up

eA

ccep

ted

64

47

17

76

Sep

t.5

,6

Mar

tin

iqu

e.G

uad

elo

up

e,S

t.K

itts

Acc

epte

d6

44

7

17

78

Oct

.2

8C

ub

aR

ejec

ted

70

Inco

rrec

ty

ear

–o

ccu

rred

on

Oct

.2

8,

17

77

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tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 11: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EI

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

Acc

epte

d

sto

rmst

orm

Yea

rD

ate

Lo

cali

ties

Sta

tus

Nu

mb

erN

um

ber

Rea

son

for

reje

cted

stat

us

17

79

no

dat

eN

ewO

rlea

ns

Acc

epte

d7

14

8

17

80

Au

g.2

4N

ewO

rlea

ns

Acc

epte

d7

24

9

17

80

Au

g.2

5S

t.K

itts

Acc

epte

d7

35

0

17

80

Oct

.3

–1

2Ja

mai

ca,C

ub

a,M

arti

niq

ue,

Bar

bad

os

Acc

epte

d7

45

1C

on

fusi

on

of

3O

ctan

d1

0–

12

Oct

sto

rms

17

80

Oct

.1

0–

18

Bar

bad

os,

Do

min

ica,

An

tig

ua,

To

bag

o,

Gre

nad

a,S

t.V

ince

nt,

St.

Do

min

go

Acc

epte

d7

55

2E

nd

ing

dat

eis

inco

rrec

tfo

rsp

ecifi

edis

lan

ds

17

80

Oct

.1

6C

ub

aA

ccep

ted

76

53

17

80

Oct

.3

1B

arb

ado

sR

ejec

ted

77

Gar

ble

dd

ate

17

81

Mar

.1

5W

est

Ind

ies

Rej

ecte

d7

8N

on

-tro

pic

alsy

stem

17

81

Au

g.1

Jam

aica

Acc

epte

d7

95

4

17

81

Au

g.1

0N

ort

hC

aro

lin

a,U

.S.

Acc

epte

d8

05

5

17

81

Sep

t.5

St.

Do

min

go

Acc

epte

d8

15

6

17

82

Ap

r.1

2N

ort

hA

tlan

tic

Rej

ecte

d8

2N

on

-tro

pic

alsy

stem

17

82

July

.2

5L

at4

33

3N

lon

g.4

22

0W

Rej

ecte

d8

3In

corr

ect

dat

e–

occ

urr

edo

nA

ug

.2

5

17

82

July

.3

1K

ing

sto

n(J

amai

ca)

Rej

ecte

d7

9N

oev

iden

cein

Jam

aica

nn

ewsp

aper

s

17

82

Au

g.1

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d7

9N

oev

iden

cein

Jam

aica

nn

ewsp

aper

s

17

82

Sep

t.1

6N

ort

hA

tlan

tic

Acc

epte

d8

45

7

17

84

Mar

ch8

Cu

ba

Rej

ecte

d8

5N

on

-tro

pic

alsy

stem

17

84

July

10

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d8

6N

oev

iden

cein

Jam

aica

nn

ewsp

aper

s

17

84

July

30

Jam

aica

,S

t.D

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

86

58

17

85

July

6W

est

Ind

ies

Rej

ecte

d8

7G

arb

led

refe

ren

ce;

inco

rrec

ty

ear

and

dat

e

17

85

July

25

St.

Cro

ixR

ejec

ted

88

Gar

ble

dd

ate

–is

Au

gu

stst

orm

17

85

Au

g.2

5G

uad

elo

up

eA

ccep

ted

88

59

17

85

Au

g.2

7Ja

mai

caA

ccep

ted

88

59

(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 12: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETHT

AB

LE

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

Acc

epte

d

sto

rmst

orm

Yea

rD

ate

Lo

cali

ties

Sta

tus

Nu

mb

erN

um

ber

Rea

son

for

reje

cted

stat

us

17

85

Au

g.3

1G

uad

elo

up

e,B

arb

ado

s,S

t.D

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

88

Gar

ble

dd

ate

–is

Au

gu

stst

orm

17

85

Sep

t.2

2–

24

Car

oli

na,

Vir

gin

ia,U

.S.

Acc

epte

d8

96

0

17

85

Sep

t.2

7S

t.D

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

88

Gar

ble

dd

ate

–is

Au

gu

stst

orm

17

86

Au

g.1

1S

t.D

om

ing

o,S

t.E

ust

atiu

s,B

arb

ado

sR

ejec

ted

90

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

17

86

Au

g.2

9U

nit

edS

tate

sA

ccep

ted

91

61

17

86

Sep

t.2

Bar

bad

os

Acc

epte

d9

26

2

1786

Sep

t.10

Guad

eloupe

Rej

ecte

d93

No

evid

ence

inlo

gbooks;

gar

ble

dre

fere

nce

17

86

Oct

.5

Bar

bad

os,

Gre

nad

aR

ejec

ted

92

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

17

86

Oct

.2

0Ja

mai

caA

ccep

ted

94

63

17

87

Ap

ril

Un

ited

Sta

tes,

Ber

mu

da

Rej

ecte

d9

5N

on

-tro

pic

alsy

stem

17

87

July

30

.U

nit

edS

tate

sR

ejec

ted

96

No

evid

ence

inn

ewsp

aper

s

17

87

July

Gu

adel

ou

pe,

Fre

nch

Isla

nd

sR

ejec

ted

97

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

17

87

Au

g.3

Do

min

ica

Acc

epte

d9

76

4

17

87

Au

g.1

5F

lori

da

Acc

epte

d9

86

5

17

87

Au

g.2

3D

om

inic

aA

ccep

ted

99

66

17

87

Au

g.2

9D

om

inic

aA

ccep

ted

10

06

7

17

87

Sep

t.2

Ho

nd

ura

sA

ccep

ted

10

06

7

17

87

Sep

t.1

9U

nit

edS

tate

sR

ejec

ted

10

1N

oev

iden

cein

new

spap

ers

17

87

Sep

t.2

3B

eliz

eA

ccep

ted

10

26

8

17

87

Dec

.1

Wes

tIn

die

sR

ejec

ted

10

3N

on

-tro

pic

alsy

stem

17

87

Jan

.1

Ho

nd

ura

sR

ejec

ted

10

4N

on

-tro

pic

alsy

stem

17

88

Mar

.&

Ap

r.S

t.C

roix

Rej

ecte

d1

05

No

n-t

rop

ical

syst

em

17

88

July

22

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Acc

epte

d1

06

69

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tinu

edon

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)

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EI

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

Acc

epte

d

sto

rmst

orm

Yea

rD

ate

Lo

cali

ties

Sta

tus

Nu

mb

erN

um

ber

Rea

son

for

reje

cted

stat

us

17

88

Au

g.1

4M

arti

niq

ue

Acc

epte

d1

07

70

17

88

Au

g.1

6P

ort

oR

ico

,S

t.D

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

10

77

0

17

88

Au

g.1

9U

nit

edS

tate

sA

ccep

ted

10

87

1

17

88

Au

g.2

9D

om

inic

aR

ejec

ted

10

0In

corr

ect

yea

r

17

88

Sep

t.1

9,

20

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Acc

epte

d1

09

72

17

90

Au

g.

Nev

isR

ejec

ted

11

0R

epo

rtis

actu

ally

for

To

bag

o

17

90

July

31

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d1

11

No

evid

ence

inJa

mai

can

new

spap

ers

17

91

Jun

e2

1C

ub

aA

ccep

ted

11

27

3

17

91

Sep

t.2

7C

ub

aA

ccep

ted

11

37

4

17

92

July

15

Wes

tIn

die

sA

ccep

ted

11

47

5

17

92

Au

g.1

An

tig

ua

Acc

epte

d1

15

76

17

92

Au

g.6

Ber

mu

das

,U

.S.

Acc

epte

d1

15

76

17

92

Sep

t.1

0A

nti

gu

aR

ejec

ted

11

6N

oev

iden

cein

log

bo

ok

s

17

92

Oct

.2

9C

ub

aA

ccep

ted

11

77

7

17

93

Au

g.1

2S

t.C

hri

stova

l,S

t.E

ust

atiu

s,S

t.T

ho

mas

Acc

epte

d1

18

78

17

94

Au

g.2

7,

28

Cu

ba

Acc

epte

d1

19

79

17

95

Au

g.1

0Ja

mai

caR

ejec

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 14: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETHT

AB

LE

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

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ence

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 15: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EI

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

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sto

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new

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26

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 16: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETHT

AB

LE

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

Acc

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d

sto

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orm

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 17: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EI

(Con

tinu

ed)

Can

did

ate

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sto

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 18: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

EI

(Con

tinu

ed)

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Sep

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Oct

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34

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

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M. CHENOWETH

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

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M. CHENOWETH

Jamaica). Some entries are rejected because precisely dated primary sources showno evidence for a storm at the cited location.

A number of storm entries in Poey refer to the same storm. The newly gatheredreports allowed a number of entries to be linked, thereby reducing the total numberof storms that were ultimately accepted. Likewise, the number of rejected entriesis actually larger than the actual number of rejected storms, because the year wasincorrect and could be connected with a storm the year before or after on the samedate at the same location as well as multiple misdated, but otherwise identical,storm reports. A good example of this latter error can be found in the listings for1785 (Table I).

Determination of the nature of storms and gales require knowledge of modernsynoptic meteorology. A discussion of these challenges is provided by Rappaportand Fernandez-Partagas (1995) available at the web site http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdeadly2.shtml. Methods for locating the approximate center of a tropical cy-clone such as that described in Landsea et al. (2004) were used. Criteria for in-clusion in the new final compilation included evidence consistent with a tropicalstorm or hurricane (tropical depressions are not included in this list). The evi-dence for each storm which can be consistently applied throughout the 1700–1855period includes one or more of the following: evidence of a closed surface lowpressure center; gradual wind shifts consistent with the apparent motion of thestorm; sustained gale force or greater winds; description of sea states and coastalstorm surges; barometric pressure (when available and reliable); descriptive ac-counts which are consistent with the features of tropical cyclones (e.g., strong windsqualls interspersed with periods of much lighter winds that are not associatedwith local thunderstorm activity); the taking of action by the crew of a ship in thefurling and reefing of sails, use of anchors, and other protective measures that areconsistent with gale force winds; damage reports on land to natural and man-madestructures that are caused by wind damage and not solely by the action of floodwaters or heavy rains; protective measures taken on land in preparation for whatis believed to be an oncoming tropical cyclone. The last point is to emphasize thedirect eyewitness reactions to the weather that we can only reconstruct from writ-ten records, even if the eyewitnesses were fortunate enough to be by-passed by ananticipated storm. Candidate storms from all months of the year were examined.Most storms in the months of December through May were rejected because theywere determined to be extra-tropical in nature, although powerful and producinghurricane force winds in some instances. A good example of such a rejected stormis the storm of 20 January 1855, which was actually a major winter snowstorm thataffected the eastern coast of the United States. An example of an accepted out-of-season storm is that of December 19–20, 1822, which is copiously documented innewspaper accounts of the Lesser Antilles, and probably originated as an extra-tropical low that moved southward into the region and transformed into a tropicalcyclone.

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TABLE II

Reliability of sources used by Poey to construct his chronology (1700–1855 only)

Ratio of rejected

Authority cited by Poey Rejected Accepted Total to accepted storms

Edwards (1805) 1 17 18 1:17

Southey (1827) 5 30 35 1:6

Warden 3 18 21 1:6

Morreau de Jonnes (1822) 5 29 34 1:5.8

Annual Register (London) 2 11 13 1:5.5

Johnson (1855) 12 54 66 1:4.5

Schomburgk (1848) 20 86 106 1:4.3

Thomson 2 8 10 1:4

Herrera (1847) 6 23 29 1:3.8

Evans (1848) 23 64 87 1:2.8

Cotte (1787) 4 9 13 1:2.3

Redfield (1831–1843) 29 51 80 1:1.7

Tegg’s Chronology (1824) 14 23 37 1:1.7

Perrey 8 14 22 1:1.7

Phillip’s Barbados Almanac 11 7 18 1:0.6

Totals 145 444 589 1:3.1

Only sources providing ten or more reports are included. The most reliable source is at top,

the least reliable at bottom. Later chroniclers frequently used earlier records when building

their chronologies which allows for the propagation of errors forward through time. Poey’s

bibliography entries for Warden, Perrey, Tegg’s Chronology, published in London in 1824 and

Phillip’s Barbados Almanac for 1839 are absent or incomplete and could not be located.

6. Reliability of Early Hurricane Compilers

Table II lists the sources cited by Poey in his compilation and the number ofstorms they included in their accounts that were accepted and rejected based on thenew chronology produced by the author. A ratio of rejected to accepted storms isincluded. Of the 15 sources that provided ten or more separate storms, an averageratio of rejected to accepted storms was 1:3.1. The most prolific source (and user ofprevious accounts) Schomburgk (1848) had 106 entries, 20 of which were rejected,and 86 accepted. His ratio of 1:4.3 is better than average. Edwards (1805) is themost accurate source, with a 1:17 ratio, while four sources (Redfield, Perrey, Tegg,and the Barbados Almanac) have ratios of 1:2 or worse.

That Redfield should be among the least reliable sources is a surprise. Whenconsideration is made for his research purposes, which involved gathering largeamounts of data for all types of storms, both tropical and non-tropical, then the errorrate is understandable. Redfield was trying to determine the nature of storms, andbeing the father of this type of research considerable allowance must be accounted

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M. CHENOWETH

for. In addition, Poey chose from the records he was provided by Redfield, whichmay also skew the numbers.

The records produced by Bryan (1805), Warden (1819), Morreau de Jonnes(1822) and Southey (1827) are the most reliable. Apparently, other compilers con-sulted them. They include Schomburgk (1848), Evans (1848) and Johnston (1855).Johnston apparently borrowed from Schomburgk, as the original edition of his phys-ical atlas included 50 hurricanes through 1837, but the 1855 edition included 127hurricanes (Poey, 1855), the exact same number included in Schomburgk’s 1848book. In many instances, the authors do not mention the works they consulted, soit is difficult to determine the source document(s) consulted by the original author.

7. Results

7.1. POEY RECORD

Of the 348 individual entries for the years 1700–1855 in the original Poey record(Table I), 198 were accepted and 149 were rejected. Of the 198 entries, a total of170 unique tropical cyclones were derived, since some entries were for locationsaffected by the same storm. Of the 149 rejected entries, 131 were unique rejectedentries, the excess being due to garbled dating of years, and multiple entries ofbad data for the supposed same storm. So, the original Poey list of 348 storms(1700–1855) actually consisted of only 271 separate storm/non-storm events.

Of the 170 accepted tropical cyclones, 13 were undated in Poey and are nowdated. The entire 156-year period has an average of just over one tropical cycloneper year, or about 10% of the probable average for the period (assuming modernAtlantic basin seasonal totals of 10 tropical cyclones (Pasch et al., 2004) was alsotrue at this time).

7.2. MILL ¬AS RECORD

Until the work of Millas (1968), the sources used by Poey were not criticallyexamined. So, for more than a century many of these errors continued to be carriedforward by historians of the region and meteorologists without much investigationto its accuracy. The original list of Poey was culled of its obvious non-tropical originstorms and several of the storms correctly assumed to be part of the same system byTannehill and his predecessors. As mentioned earlier, the Tannehill (1938) recordcontinues to be used as a reference in most hurricane compilations to this day.Millas makes frequent reference to Tannehill.

Millas (1968) modified the Poey record, even though he also uncritically con-sidered Tannehill, Poey and other compilers as equal authorities. The strength ofMillas’s work was his re-reading of as many of the secondary sources listed in Poey

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

(1855) as he could find, including those in non-English languages. He also em-phasized the calendar differences in the sources he consulted and corrected manylong-standing dates. His reliance on these secondary sources was also a majorlimitation to his efforts as the analysis of primary documents now reveals.

Since Millas made adjustments to the pre-1801 portion of the Poey record, it isof importance to document his adjustments for the years 1700–1800. Twelve stormsaccepted by Millas (1968), and not included in Poey (1855) were confirmed fromindependent sources but a number are undated or misdated. Other storms acceptedby Millas were rejected outright or the date so garbled (even though the source wasvalid) as to be useless. Some of these dating and location errors for 1750–1786 aredocumented in Chenoweth (2003). Table III lists the accepted and rejected Millasstorms. The new assessment of his record is that 85 storms from 1700–1800 areaccepted with 12 not previously known. Ten of the 85 storms were undated ormisdated, limiting their usefulness for climatologists. Between Poey and Millas, atotal of 100 unique storms were recorded, with 16 undated prior to this study andonly one now remaining undated.

7.3. OTHER WORKS AND A A¡ COMPREHENSIVE” CHRONOLOGY

Many storms that pass through the Caribbean eventually make landfall somewherewithin the borders of the United States. Tropical systems documented by Ludlum(1963) were also linked with the new chronology of Caribbean storms and appearin a separate column in Table IV. A number of Ludlum’s storms are undated butnew evidence helps to date the storms exactly, or to narrow the date range down toa narrow range of likely dates.

Since 1982, a number of researchers have gathered new information on pre-viously unknown tropical cyclones. Teachout (1982) identified six new stormsaffecting Bermuda in the 1710s and 1720s. Rappaport and Fernandez-Partagas(1995) identified a number of new storms in both primary and secondary litera-ture. Fernandez-Partagas and Diaz (1995a) cover the final years of the Poey listand added previously unidentified tropical cyclones. Table IV includes only thosestorms included in HURDAT that were known prior to the work of Fernandez-Partagas. For this reason, readers interested in a complete list of Atlantic tropicalcyclones need to consult the HURDAT record as will as Table IV. One new storm inJamaica and the merging of two HURDAT systems are listed in Table IV and havenot yet been added to HURDAT. Other researchers have also added to the record ofU.S. land-falling tropical cyclones (e.g. Sandrik and Landsea, 2003; Mock, 2004).

Two additional columns in Table IV include the work by Mock (2004) on SouthCarolina tropical cyclones. His work is based on extensive archival work on sourcesfrom South Carolina not previously studied. Garcia-Herrera et al. (2005) havepublished a list of tropical cyclones from Spanish archive records and includeimportant new details on both new and previously documented storms.

Page 26: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETH

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anto

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15

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edon

next

page

)

Page 27: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EII

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

Mil

las

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gn

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did

ate

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20

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erto

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ted

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las

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17

22

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21

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9

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25

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17

26

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ted

24

16

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11

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12

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28

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30

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ico

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71

9

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30

Sep

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aica

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81

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ame

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ove

17

30

Sep

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uth

of

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ove

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(Con

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next

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)

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M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

EII

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

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las

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las

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gin

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1

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

LE

III

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

Mil

las

Po

eyP

oey

assi

gn

edac

cep

ted

can

did

ate

acce

pte

d

case

sto

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sto

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ate(

s)L

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tio

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um

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nu

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51

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ted

by

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las

(19

68

)

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51

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g.2

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ted

52

34

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illa

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96

8)

17

51

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mai

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ted

53

34

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s(1

96

8)

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51

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anto

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go

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dat

e

17

51

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iden

cein

log

bo

ok

so

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aper

s

17

51

Sep

t.2

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Sea

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uth

of.

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mai

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ted

56

33

17

51

late

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anto

Do

min

go

,H

aiti

,

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aica

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ecte

d5

73

5

17

54

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3–

15

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ard

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nd

s,S

anto

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min

go

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43

72

7

17

55

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ub

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de

Cu

ba)

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ecte

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ejec

ted

by

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las

also

17

56

Au

g.2

3B

arb

ado

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ted

60

37

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evid

ence

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gb

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ks;

mis

dat

ed

17

58

sto

rm

17

56

Sep

t.1

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13

53

92

8

17

56

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man

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ted

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36

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tan

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f

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ba

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ame

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17

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ted

64

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17

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83

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

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)

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M. CHENOWETHT

AB

LE

III

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

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ith

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34

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g.1

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4

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66

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of

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ain

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17

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erto

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o

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94

35

03

7

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04

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67

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81

45

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68

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ks

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17

68

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(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

LE

III

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

Mil

las

Po

eyP

oey

assi

gn

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cep

ted

can

did

ate

acce

pte

d

case

sto

rmst

orm

sto

rm

Yea

rD

ate(

s)L

oca

tio

nS

tatu

sn

um

ber

nu

mb

ern

um

ber

nu

mb

erR

easo

nfo

rre

ject

edst

atu

s

17

72

July

16

Sea

sn

ort

ho

fP

uer

toR

ico

Rej

ecte

d8

7d

eC

ord

ova

un

reli

able

sou

rce

17

72

Au

g.4

–5

San

toD

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

88

47

58

41

17

72

Au

g.1

6S

anti

ago

de

Cu

ba,

Cu

ba

Rej

ecte

d8

96

0In

corr

ect

dat

e

17

72

Au

g.1

7S

ou

ther

np

art

of

An

tig

ua

Rej

ecte

d9

06

0G

arb

leo

fco

rrec

t2

7–

28

Au

gu

std

ate

17

72

Au

g.2

8–

Sep

.3

No

rth

ern

Lee

war

d[s

]...

Gu

lfo

fH

on

du

ras

Acc

epte

d9

14

86

04

2L

atte

rp

art

of

trac

kin

corr

ect

17

72

Au

g.3

0–

Sep

t.1

Les

ser

An

till

es..

.P

uer

to

Ric

o

Acc

epte

d9

24

96

04

2

17

72

Sep

t.1

–4

Do

min

ica,

San

toD

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

93

60

42

Rej

ecte

db

yM

illa

s

17

72

Oct

.1

8L

eew

ard

Isla

nd

sR

ejec

ted

94

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

72

Nov.

22

St.

Kit

ts,S

t.E

ust

atiu

sR

ejec

ted

95

61

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

73

July

18

–2

2..

.n

ear

Vir

gin

Isla

nd

s...

;

wes

tern

Bah

amas

Acc

epte

d9

65

06

24

3

17

73

Au

g.(s

eco

nd

hal

f)

To

bag

oR

ejec

ted

97

No

sto

rman

yti

me

inA

ug

ust

or

Sep

tem

ber

17

74

no

dat

eC

ub

aR

ejec

ted

98

See

also

Mil

las

(19

68

)p

.24

1p

ost

scri

pt

17

74

Sep

t.6

Gu

adel

ou

pe

Rej

ecte

d9

96

4In

corr

ect

yea

r;se

e1

77

6en

try

17

74

Oct

.2

or

20

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d1

00

65

No

evid

ence

(Ch

enow

eth

,2

00

3)

17

75

July

30

–A

ug

.1

Mar

tin

iqu

e,A

ves

,...

San

toD

om

ing

o

Acc

epte

d1

01

51

66

44

17

75

Au

g.2

5M

arti

niq

ue

Acc

epte

d1

02

52

67

45

17

75

Au

g.2

7S

anto

Do

min

go

Acc

epte

d1

03

52

67

45

Sam

eas

above (C

onti

nued

onne

xtpa

ge)

Page 32: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

EII

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

Mil

las

Po

eyP

oey

assi

gn

edac

cep

ted

can

did

ate

acce

pte

d

case

sto

rmst

orm

sto

rm

Yea

rD

ate(

s)L

oca

tio

nS

tatu

sn

um

ber

nu

mb

ern

um

ber

nu

mb

erR

easo

nfo

rre

ject

edst

atu

s

17

75

Sep

t.1

4–

15

San

toD

om

ing

o,H

aiti..

.

Gre

atIn

agu

aIs

lan

d

Rej

ecte

d1

04

68

Gar

ble

dac

cou

nt

17

75

Oct

.1

6S

t.K

itts

Acc

epte

d1

05

53

69

46

17

76

Sep

t.5

–7

Les

ser

An

till

es..

.d

ista

nt

fro

mP

uer

toR

ico

Acc

epte

d1

06

–1

08

54

64

47

17

78

no

dat

eH

avan

a,C

ub

aR

ejec

ted

10

97

0R

ejec

ted

by

Mil

las

also

17

78

Oct

.2

8–

31

Pro

vin

ceo

fO

rien

te,C

ub

aR

ejec

ted

11

07

0In

corr

ect

yea

r–

occ

urr

edo

nO

ct.

28

,

17

77

17

79

Au

g.2

8M

arti

niq

ue

Acc

epte

d1

11

55

17

79

Sep

t.4

–5

No

rth

ern

par

to

fA

nti

gu

a;

Nev

is

Rej

ecte

d1

12

Ch

arle

sto

n,S

Cac

cou

nt,

no

tN

evis

17

79

Oct

.3

Win

dw

ard

Isla

nd

san

d

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d1

13

Rej

ecte

db

yM

illa

sal

so

17

80

Jun

e1

2–

14

St.

Lu

cia,

Pu

erto

Ric

o,S

anto

Do

min

go

Rej

ecte

d1

14

Co

nfu

sed

wit

hO

ct.1

2–

14

sto

rmin

sam

ey

ear

17

80

Au

g.2

5S

t.K

itts

Acc

epte

d1

15

56

73

50

17

80

Sep

t.3

0D

om

inic

aR

ejec

ted

11

6R

ejec

ted

by

Mil

las

also

17

80

Oct

.3

–5

Wes

tern

Jam

aica

...

cen

tral

Bah

amas

Acc

epte

d1

17

57

74

51

17

80

Oct

.1

0–

16

Bar

bad

os

and

sever

alo

ther

isla

nd

s

Acc

epte

d1

18

58

75

52

17

80

Oct

.1

7–

21

Sea

sn

ort

ho

f..

.C

ub

a...

Gu

lfo

fM

exic

o

Acc

epte

d1

19

59

76

53

(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 33: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EII

I

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

Mil

las

Po

eyP

oey

assi

gn

edac

cep

ted

can

did

ate

acce

pte

d

case

sto

rmst

orm

sto

rm

Yea

rD

ate(

s)L

oca

tio

nS

tatu

sn

um

ber

nu

mb

ern

um

ber

nu

mb

erR

easo

nfo

rre

ject

edst

atu

s

17

80

Oct

.3

1B

arb

ado

sR

ejec

ted

12

0R

ejec

ted

by

Mil

las

also

17

81

Au

g.1

Jam

aica

Acc

epte

d1

21

60

79

54

17

81

Sep

t.5

San

toD

om

ing

oA

ccep

ted

12

26

18

15

6

17

82

pro

bab

lyJu

ly2

8D

om

inic

aR

ejec

ted

12

3N

oev

iden

cein

log

bo

ok

so

rn

ewsp

aper

s

17

82

July

31

–A

ug

.1

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d1

24

79

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

84

July

10

–1

1Ja

mai

caR

ejec

ted

12

58

6N

oev

iden

cein

log

bo

ok

so

rn

ewsp

aper

s

17

84

July

30

Jam

aica

Acc

epte

d1

26

62

86

58

17

84

Au

g.1

–3

San

toD

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

12

76

2M

isd

ated

;ac

tual

lysa

me

asab

ove

sto

rm

17

84

no

dat

eC

ura

cao

Acc

epte

d1

28

63

17

85

July

6W

est

Ind

ies

Rej

ecte

d1

29

64

87

Gar

ble

dd

ate

–is

Au

gu

stst

orm

17

85

July

25

St.

Cro

ixR

ejec

ted

13

06

48

8G

arb

led

dat

e–

isA

ug

ust

sto

rm

17

85

Au

g.2

5G

uad

elo

up

e,S

t.K

itts

Acc

epte

d1

31

64

88

59

17

85

Au

g.2

7Ja

mai

ca,C

aym

anIs

lan

ds

Acc

epte

d1

32

64

88

59

17

85

Au

g.3

1B

arb

ado

s,G

uad

elo

up

e,..

..

Rej

ecte

d1

33

64

88

Gar

ble

dd

ate

–is

Au

gu

stst

orm

17

85

Sep

t.2

5P

uer

toR

ico

Rej

ecte

d1

34

64

88

Gar

ble

dd

ate

–is

Au

gu

stst

orm

17

85

Sep

t.2

7S

t.D

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

13

56

48

8G

arb

led

dat

e–

isA

ug

ust

sto

rm

17

86

Au

g.1

1–

14

Bar

bud

a...

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d1

36

90

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

86

Sep

t.2

–3

Bar

bad

os

Acc

epte

d1

37

65

92

62

17

86

Sep

t.1

0G

uad

elo

up

e,M

arie

Gal

ante

,

...

.

Rej

ecte

d1

38

93

17

86

Oct

.5

Bar

bad

os,

Gre

nad

aR

ejec

ted

13

99

2N

oev

iden

cein

log

bo

ok

so

rn

ewsp

aper

s

17

86

Oct

.2

0Ja

mai

caA

ccep

ted

14

06

69

46

3

17

87

July

6G

ren

ada,

Win

dw

ard

Isla

nd

sR

ejec

ted

14

1N

oev

iden

cein

log

bo

ok

so

rn

ewsp

aper

s

(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 34: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETHT

AB

LE

III

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

Mil

las

Po

eyP

oey

assi

gn

edac

cep

ted

can

did

ate

acce

pte

d

case

sto

rmst

orm

sto

rm

Yea

rD

ate(

s)L

oca

tio

nS

tatu

sn

um

ber

nu

mb

ern

um

ber

nu

mb

erR

easo

nfo

rre

ject

edst

atu

s

17

87

aro

un

dJu

ly2

0F

ren

chA

nti

lles

Rej

ecte

d1

42

96

No

evid

ence

inlo

gb

oo

ks

or

new

spap

ers

17

87

Au

g.3

Do

min

ica

Acc

epte

d1

43

67

97

64

17

87

Au

g.2

3D

om

inic

a...

Gu

adel

ou

pe

and

Mar

tin

iqu

e

Acc

epte

d1

44

68

99

66

17

87

Au

g.2

9D

om

inic

aA

ccep

ted

14

56

91

00

67

17

87

Sep

t.2

Ho

nd

ura

sA

ccep

ted

14

56

91

00

67

Sam

eas

above

17

87

Sep

t.2

3B

eliz

e,B

riti

shH

on

du

ras

Acc

epte

d1

46

70

10

26

8

17

88

Au

g.1

4–

15

Mar

tin

iqu

e,D

om

inic

a,

Gu

adel

ou

pe

Acc

epte

d1

47

71

10

77

0

17

88

Au

g.1

6–

17

Sea

sso

uth

of.

..P

uer

to

Ric

o..

.

Acc

epte

d1

48

71

10

77

0S

ame

asab

ove

17

88

Au

g.2

9–

31

Do

min

ica,

San

toD

om

ing

oR

ejec

ted

14

96

91

00

Inco

rrec

ty

ear

17

88

Oct

.1

2G

ren

ada,

Win

dw

ard

Isla

nd

sR

ejec

ted

15

0E

arth

qu

ake

on

ly–

log

bo

ok

ssh

own

o

sto

rm

17

90

July

31

Jam

aica

Rej

ecte

d1

51

10

8N

oev

iden

cein

Jam

aica

nn

ewsp

aper

s

17

90

Au

g.1

0T

ob

ago

Acc

epte

d1

52

72

17

90

Au

g.

An

tig

ua,

Nev

is,..

.R

edo

nd

aR

ejec

ted

15

37

21

07

Det

ails

are

for

To

bag

ost

orm

17

91

Jun

e2

1–

22

Wes

tern

par

to

fC

ub

a;H

avan

aA

ccep

ted

15

47

31

12

73

17

91

Sep

t.2

7C

ub

a,p

rob

ably

east

ern

hal

fA

ccep

ted

15

57

41

13

74

17

91

Oct

.2

0Ja

mai

caR

ejec

ted

15

6

17

92

July

14

St.

Kit

tsan

dp

rob

ably

oth

er..

.is

lan

ds

Acc

epte

d1

57

75

11

47

5

(Con

tinu

edon

next

page

)

Page 35: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

LE

III

(Con

tinu

ed)

Mil

las

Mil

las

Po

eyP

oey

assi

gn

edac

cep

ted

can

did

ate

acce

pte

d

case

sto

rmst

orm

sto

rm

Yea

rD

ate(

s)L

oca

tio

nS

tatu

sn

um

ber

nu

mb

ern

um

ber

nu

mb

erR

easo

nfo

rre

ject

edst

atu

s

17

92

Au

g.1

–6

An

tig

ua,

St.

Kit

ts..

.;

Ber

mu

da

Isla

nd

s

Acc

epte

d1

59

76

11

57

6

17

92

Sep

t.1

0A

nti

gu

aR

ejec

ted

15

91

16

17

92

Oct

.2

9W

este

rnh

alf

of

Cu

ba

Acc

epte

d1

60

77

11

77

7

17

93

Au

g.1

2–

13

St.

Kit

ts,S

t.E

ust

atiu

s,S

t.

Th

om

as

Acc

epte

d1

61

78

11

87

8

17

94

Au

g.2

7–

28

Hav

ana,

Cu

ba

Acc

epte

d1

62

79

11

97

9

17

94

Oct

.2

7–

28

Cu

ba

Rej

ecte

d1

63

Rej

ecte

db

yM

illa

sal

so

17

95

Au

g.1

0Ja

mai

caR

ejec

ted

16

41

20

No

sto

rmat

Jam

aica

17

95

Au

g.1

8A

nti

gu

aA

ccep

ted

16

58

01

21

80

17

96

Oct

.2

–4

Cu

ba,

Bah

amas

Acc

epte

d1

66

81

12

28

1

17

96

Oct

.2

4C

ub

a(H

avan

a)R

ejec

ted

16

71

22

Gar

ble

of

Oct

ob

er2

–4

dat

es

17

96

Nov.

2H

avan

a,C

ub

aR

ejec

ted

16

81

22

Inco

rrec

tm

on

th;

actu

ally

isO

cto

ber

sto

rm

17

99

no

dat

eS

ou

ther

nco

ast

of

cen

tral

Cu

ba

Acc

epte

d1

69

82

12

38

2

18

00

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g.

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atIn

agu

aIs

lan

d,B

aham

asA

ccep

ted

17

08

3

18

00

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g.1

0N

ort

ho

f..

.T

ob

ago

and

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nid

ad

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epte

d1

71

84

18

00

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.1

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15

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ba

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ecte

d1

72

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illa

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so

18

00

Nov.

2P

rov

ince

of

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ente

,C

ub

aA

ccep

ted

17

38

51

24

83

Page 36: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

EIV

Ch

ron

olo

gic

alli

sto

fth

em

ost

imp

ort

ant

chro

no

log

ies

and

dat

aso

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tlan

tic

bas

intr

op

ical

cycl

on

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Page 37: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

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Page 38: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

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Page 39: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

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M. CHENOWETH

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

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BL

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also

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ser

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lles

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tinu

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next

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Page 43: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

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(Con

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next

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Page 44: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

EIV

(Con

tinu

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Gar

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96

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uth

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97

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next

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Page 45: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

LE

IV

(Con

tinu

ed)

Gar

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104

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105

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106

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Page 46: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

EIV

(Con

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EIV

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M. CHENOWETHT

AB

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EIV

(Con

tinu

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M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

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(Con

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)

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

LE

IV

(Con

tinu

ed)

Gar

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M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONEST

AB

LE

IV

(Con

tinu

ed)

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M. CHENOWETH

TA

BL

EIV

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

TA

BL

EIV

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Page 63: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

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Page 64: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

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REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

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M. CHENOWETHT

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Page 69: A REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL ... · Maryland, College Park, Maryland, the British Library Newspaper Library, in London as well as newspapers included in the

REASSESSMENT OF HISTORICAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES

The records of Poey (1855), Millas (1968), Ludlum (1963), Mock (2004) andGarcia-Herrera et al. (2005) in Table IV, along with previous and new work by thisauthor, provides a “comprehensive” chronology of Atlantic basin storms through1850 and a partial list for 1851–1855 which should be used in combination with thecurrent HURDAT lists for 1851–2004 (Landsea et al., 2004). This final “comprehen-sive” chronology lists all of the published information available as of 2005 and con-sists of 383 published, independently-confirmed tropical cyclones for 1700–1855.It should replace all previous hurricane chronologies prior to 1851. The most com-plete list of post-1850 Atlantic tropical cyclones is found in HURDAT but Table IVadds to and corrects HURDAT. The “comprehensive” chronology in Table IV shouldnow finally replace Poey’s list, and succeeding chronologies published since thattime for years prior to 1851. Tables I, III and IV are also included on the author’sweb site hosted at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/chenowethcc05.pdf.

8. Conclusions and Summary

A new analysis of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1700–1855 wascompared against the previously published chronology of Poey (1855). Thirty-sevenpercent of the entries were found to be in error and rejected. Since the Poey recordhas been used in lists of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for nearly 150 years, thiserror rate makes these lists of little use for serious climatological research. Otherhistorical records of tropical cyclones by Millas (1968) and Ludlum (1963) werealso compared with the new chronology. Millas was found to have continued topropagate errors from Poey’s list, corrected others, and added both new stormsand new errors. Ludlum was more successful in correctly dating and identifyingtropical cyclones based largely on his use of primary sources, and searching formultiple independent sources before accepting them. Millas, in turn, largely read thesecondary literature, which is often flawed. Mock (2004) and Garcia-Herrera et al.(2005) have also made important contributions to the chronology from originaldocuments in archives in South Carolina and Spain.

The new chronology, including 383 unique storms from 1700 through 1855,should now replace all previous compilations of pre-1851 Atlantic basin tropi-cal cyclones, as it is based on the most exhaustive search of primary documentsever done for the basin as a whole. Other research projects, such as that of theClimate of the World’s Oceans (CLIWOC) (www.nmm.ac.uk and the CLIWOChomepage at http://www.ucm.es/info(reclido/en/home-en.htm), provide additionalinformation on ships’ logbooks and climate reconstruction, that is of interest fortropical cyclone reconstruction. Readers interested in post-1850 records shouldconsult the HURDAT data set (Landsea et al., 2004), Chenoweth (2003) and Mock(2004) as well as Table IV of this work. The inclusion of this data into HURDAT isplanned.

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M. CHENOWETH

Acknowledgments

Professor Cary Mock, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina atColumbia generously provided his newly-compiled list of South Carolina historicaltropical cyclones for use in this work. The author also acknowledges the threereferees who provided valuable suggestions and critical commentary.

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