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A Role for Science & Technology Foresight in CTBT-ISS ?
Exploring the next generation verification system
Matthias Weber and Ron Johnston
ARC systems research & Australian Centre for Innovation
Vienna, 17 September 2008
© systems research
Overview
The context for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
The landscape of S&T Foresight methods
Experiences with S&T Roadmapping
Key issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
© systems research
The global context for CTBT-ISS
Geopolitical shifts E.g. new entrants/exits to the “nuclear club”
International agreements and regulations E.g. early detection of nuclear disasters
Shifts in perception of risks E.g. greater focus on climate change and natural disasters
Financial pressures E.g. budget cuts
Scientific advances E.g. infrasound
Technological advances E.g. IT-based communication and computation advances
© systems research
The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight
Shift from building up a verification system to operating, maintaining and upgrading it
Emerging needs and opportunities Assess appropriateness of the existing system to meet its
future tasks Continuous monitoring of emerging S&T opportunities Consensus-building on the introduction of novel elements Integration into the existing system Spill-over potential into other problem areas (e.g. natural
disasters)
© systems research
The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight (2)
Three stakeholder communities to consider Preparatory Comission CTBT-ISS Scientific communities
S&T Foresight as a process-based instrument to deal with emerging needs and opportunities in interaction with stakeholder communities
© systems research
Forecasting – Foresight – PlanningWhat is the difference?
Forecasting supposes that there is one possible future, based on extrapolation or projections of past and present trends. Involves only experts. Time horizons commonly 5-10 years.
Foresight assume that there are many futures, and through the mobilisation of interested stakeholders it is feasible to develop a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long-term future. It uses time horizons of 10-20 years.
Planning is based on theories or doctrines on future developments. Involves only policy makers and experts. Time horizons between 1-5 years.
© systems research
Strategic Marketingand Trend Research
Technology ForesightTechnology Foresight(e.g. Delphi-Studies, Technology Monitoring)
Product Impact AssessmentTechnology Assessment(e.g.Offices for technologyassessment)
Scenarios of FutureSocieties(e.g. Political think tanks)
Global Trends(e.g. World Bank,Worldwatch Institute)
StrategicTechnologyMonitoring
Long term perspective
(Conventionalmarket research
StrategicMarket Research
TechnologyMonitoring
Prospective Economic Analyses
CompetitionAnalysis
Short/medium term perspective
Focus on Markets and Business Environments(economic, political, societal, ecological)
= non-technological driving forces
Focus on Technologies
Today + 10 years + 15 years+ 5 years
Innovation and Technology Analysis
Landscape of Future Studies
Source: F. RuffSource: F. Ruff
© systems research
Methods & Tools Diagnosis Prescription Qualitative Exploratory
Prognosi
s Quantitativ
e Normative Predictive
Environmental Scanning/Monitoring
XX X X
Trend ExtrapolationX XX X X X X
Modelling and SimulationX XX X X X
Expert Panels XX X X X X
Delphi SurveyX X X X X X XX X
Roadmapping X X X XX X X
Critical/Key TechnologiesX X XX X X X X
Scenario Building XX X X X
© systems research
Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if this event happens or if that trend develops?
Knowledge about the present
Alternative futures
What if
What if
What if
Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best future“ happen?
Present actions Alternative
futures
What to do
The „best future“
Two basic approaches to Foresight
Source: Keenan/PREST
© systems research
Application of the foresight methodology
Establishing a transparent structured decision-making process
Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative intelligence
Provoking a creative and motivating decision making environment
Stimulating a participative approach Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue Reaching consensus around shared visions Linking technology and innovation to wider socio-
economic issues Paving the way for coordinated/coherent action
Source: Keenan/PREST
© systems research
A STRM is a process tool to help identify the key scientific and technological development that an industry/sector/company/organisation needs to succeed in the future, and the projects/steps required to make these scientific and technological developments available for implementing solutions.
STRMs are developed by a group of collaborators who are knowledgeable about an industry/sector/research field and its relevant scientific and technological developments
STRM can be supported by a range of information gathering (e.g. S&T Monitoring, bibliometric analysis, data mining) and intelligence tools
S&T Roadmapping (STRM) as an option for CTBT-ISS?
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Suppliers Manufacturers
End Users
WHO WHAT/HOW WHY
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
• Identified market demands
• Identified critical technologies
• Targeted R&D investment
• Reduced market and investment risk
• Partnerships• Enhanced
competitiveness• Influence on
government policy, programs and regulations
• Innovation• Improved knowledge• Productivity Growth• Identified human
resource and skills gaps
Anticipated BenefitsIndustry -led Initiative
Periodic iterationFacilitated by: Industry CanadaPotential Facilitators: Other Departments, Research Organizations, Associations or Consultants
Academia and Research Organizations
Feasibility Resources Analysis
Actions to develop, commercialize and transfer technology
Periodic evaluation, re-thinking, and cultural adoption
A Canadian experience with STRM
© systems research
Market / Customers / Competitors /Environment / Industry /
Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats /Objectives / Milestones / Strategy
Products / Services / Applications /Services / Capabilities / Performance /
Features / Components / Families /Processes / Systems / Platforms /
Opportunities / Requirements / Risks
Technology /Competences /
Knowledge
Other resources: Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers /
Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation /Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects
Time
(know-when)
‘purpose’(know-why)
‘delivery’(know-what)
‘resources’(know-how)
Past Now Plans Future Vision
Mar
ket P
ull
Technol
ogy p
ush
Layers connect:
Generic roadmap – links resources to objectives
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10-3
Roadmap for Electronic Devices
101 100 10-1102
104
106
108
Number of chip components
Feature size (microns)
1010
1012
1018
1014
1016
10-2
Classical Age
Historical Trend
SIA Roadmap2010
CMOS
19952000
2005
1970
1980
1990
4oK
Quantum Age
77oK
295oK
Quantum State Switch
Source: Fine, MIT
© systems research
Nanotechnology Roadmap – lessons learned:Atomically Precise Technology (APT)
Atomic precision is the guiding vision for nanotechnology. Required for Moore's law progress in 15 year time frame. Required for optimal materials and systems. Current forms have sharply restricted capabilities. Advances will enable expanding applications. APT development requires focused cross-disciplinary
research to develop a body of engineering knowledge for systematic design and improvement of AP nanosystems
Source: Foresight Nanotech Institute
© systems research
Nanotechnology roadmap – lessons learned:Atomically Precise Manufacturing (APM)
Essential feature: programmable control of operations. Required for engineering and fabricating complex AP
systems. Scanning probe devices: APM on metals,
semiconductors. Biomolecular machines: APM of polymer objects. Self-assembly: large AP products from smaller ones. Near-term APM promises a growing range of
applications. Advanced APM promises revolutionary applications.
© systems research
Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
Establishing the scope and the issue/s to be addressed In need of a scenario-based approach ?
Defining the time horizon Crucial balance between policy relevance and exploratory
character Designing an appropriate foresight process
Definition of the range of stakeholders to engage, and of the approaches to achieve it
Selecting the appropriate foresight tools Drawing on the foresight „toolbox“
Ensuring adequate participation Mobilising the relevant communities is challenging!
© systems research
Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
Appropriate guidance and facilitation Professional support is essential for success
Regular updating and integration in CTBT strategy Not just a one-off exercise, but part of a wider learning process
© systems research