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A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET

A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

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Page 1: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET

Page 2: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

Warsaw CBDCompletely transformed skylineCompletely transformed skyline…

Cushman & Wakefield

Page 3: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

Warsaw CBDin just 20 years…in just 20 years

Cushman & Wakefield

Page 4: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

Contents

INVESTMENT OVERVIEW

OFFICE MARKET

1

2

RETAIL MARKET

INDUSTRIAL MARKET

3

4

Cushman & Wakefield

Page 5: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

1 INVESTMENT OVERVIEW

Page 6: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

POLAND INVESTMENT VOLUMES

6 000€4.0 bn2015

4 000

5 000

ualy

(bn

€)

56%

€5.0 bn2016 FORECAST

3 000

4 000

Tran

sact

ions

annu 2015 CE deals concluded

in Poland

1 000

2 000

T

02002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Cushman & Wakefield

Retail Office Industrial Other Total

Page 7: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

POLAND PRIME YIELDS

5.50%OFFICE

5.25%RETAIL

6.75%INDUSTRIAL

11%

12%Prime Yields

9%

10%

6%

7%

8%

4%

5%

6%

Cushman & Wakefield

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Retail Office Logistics

Page 8: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

KEY 2016 YTD AND ANTICIPATED DEALS

HALA KOSZYKI & RENOMA FASHION OUTLET PORTFOLIOSector Retail Sector Retail

PRIME CORPORATE CENTRESector OfficeSector Retail

Location Warsaw & WrocławSeller Griffin Real EstateVolume EUR 250mn

Sector Retail Location nationwideSeller PeaksideVolume EUR 245mn

Sector OfficeLocation WarsawSeller Golub GethouseVolume EUR 90mn

GALERIA SŁONECZNA PZU PORTFOLIOQ22Sector OfficeLocation Warsaw

Sector Retail Location Radom

Sector IndustrialLocation nationwideS ll PZUSeller Echo/Griffin

Volume EUR 220mnSeller WhitestarVolume EUR 195mn

Seller PZUVolume EUR 155mn

Cushman & Wakefield

Page 9: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

2 OFFICE MARKET

Page 10: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

OFFICE MARKET

16%

18%

800 000

900 000

16%

18%

700 000

800 000

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

canc

y ra

te

sq m

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

canc

y ra

te

sq m

0%

2%

4%

6%

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F

Vac

0%

2%

4%

6%

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

Kraków Wrocław Tricity Katowice Poznań Łódź

Vac

• Record high demand driven by decreasing rents • High developers activity record supply of over 450 000 sqm expected in

• Unchanged BPO/SSC strong interest driven by access to qualified but competitive labour high language skills and modern office space

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 F

Supply Absorption Take-up Vacancy

Kraków Wrocław Tricity Katowice Poznań Łódź

Stock 2015 Take-up Vacancy

• High developers activity – record supply of over 450,000 sqm expected in 2016

• Emerging locations – CBD West & CBD North• Supply level to decrease in 2017• Increased pressure on effective rents due to the oversupply very likely to

be continued in 2016

competitive labour, high language skills and modern office space availability

• Kraków classified as the top outsourcing destination in Europe and ranked 9th in the world

• Strong fundamentals for further development• Rents to remain stable in the mid term

Cushman & Wakefield

be continued in 2016• Oversupply may push the vacancy rate to ca. 16% during 2016

• Rents to remain stable in the mid-term• Increasing interest in secondary cities

Page 11: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

3 RETAIL MARKET

Page 12: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

FACTS & FIGURES

EUR 2 3 bn160 700 000EUR 2.3 bnEXPECTED 2016

INVESTMENT VOLUMEWarsaw

100

120

140

€/sq

m/m

onth

400 000

500 000

600 000

sqm

GLA

Plan (by the end of 2019)

UC

Łódź

Wrocław

Poznań

Tri-City

Szczecin

Kraków

Katowice40

60

80

Prim

e re

nt in

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

Supp

ly in

s

2015

2014

2016-2019 – big cities shall return as retail developers’ top destinations About 530,000 sqm GLA – total amount of modern retail area to be delivered

Tri-City201,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,5% 5,0%

Vacancy rate

0Warsaw Kraków Poznań TriCity Katowice Łódź Szczecin Wrocław

(Galeria Północna in Warsaw, Serenada in Kraków, Wroclavia in Wrocław, Forum Gdańsk)

Posnania – with 100,000 sqm GLA under construction it is the largest retailscheme under construction in Poland

in Warsaw in 2016 – 2019

Warsaw, Kraków and Silesia remain the most expensive destinations for the most attractive retail units

Cushman & Wakefield

Except for Warsaw, Poland’s top retail markets remain very similar with regards to prime rents, stock and vacancy rates

Page 13: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

4 INDUSTRIAL MARKET

Page 14: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

POLAND INDUSTRIAL MARKET

12%Warsaw 3 000 000

Take-up in Poland

6%

8%

10% 3,067,308 sqmTricity327,741 sqm

C t l P l d

Wrocław1,391,445 sqm

U Sil i1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

sq m

acan

cy

0%

2%

4%

Kraków212,712 sqm

Central Poland1,335,088 sqm

Poznań1,481,076 sqm

Upper Silesia1,849,898 sqm

-

500 000

1 000 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1

s

Va

Warsaw remains the largest CE distribution hub Substantial pipeline with 630,000 sqm of modern warehousespace under construction

1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 5,00 5,50 New deal Renewal of a deal Space extension Grand TotalHeadline Rent €/sqm/month

Increasing stake of regional industrial destinations in total Poland’sstock

Take-up increased by 20% in 2015

space under construction

Headline rents in the largest warehouse markets remains stable

Vacancy clusters mainly linked to older stock and/or less attractive

Cushman & Wakefield

locations

Page 15: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps g pclients transform the way people work, shop, and live.

Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate serviceslargest commercial real estate services firms with revenue of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory.

400 illi

$5bnrevenue

43,000employees

265To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com or follow @CushWakeCE on Twitter.

400 million sq m

propertymanagement

124 million sq m

265offices

60

Cushman & Wakefield

124 million sq m

facilitiesmanagement

60countries

Page 16: A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLISH REAL ESTATE MARKET · Cushman & Wakefield. ... services, capital markets, facility services ... Microsoft PowerPoint - C&W Real estate market update [tryb

Thank you for your attention!

Cushman & Wakefield Copyright 2016. NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, AND SAME IS SUBMITTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGE OF PRICE, RENTAL OR OTHER CONDITIONS, WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE, AND TO ANY SPECIAL LISTING CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY THE PROPERTY OWNER(S). AS APPLICABLE, WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATION AS TO THE CONDITION OF THE PROPERTY (OR PROPERTIES) IN QUESTION.