A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Study Description

Question: Do large-scale incinerators have an impact on thehealth of the people living close to them?

Study period: 1998-2008Large-scale incinerators in England

>150,000 tpa

Operational on or before 31-12-1998 and for 5 yearssubsequently

→ 5 incinerators +2 London

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Study Description

Question: Do large-scale incinerators have an impact on thehealth of the people living close to them?

Study period: 1998-2008Large-scale incinerators in England

>150,000 tpa

Operational on or before 31-12-1998 and for 5 yearssubsequently

→ 5 incinerators +2 London

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Regions

Case regionsAll LSOAs whose centroid is contained within 10km circlearound incinerator

Control regionsMatched to case regions

Select most similar LA to that containing case region

Within LA, find 10km circle with:population within ± 50% of case region,no incinerator >50,000 tpa in it or within 10km of itsborder

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Regions

Case regionsAll LSOAs whose centroid is contained within 10km circlearound incinerator

Control regionsMatched to case regions

Select most similar LA to that containing case region

Within LA, find 10km circle with:population within ± 50% of case region,no incinerator >50,000 tpa in it or within 10km of itsborder

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Selected Regions

Pair Case Regions Control Regions

1 Billingham, Stockton on Tees Doncaster2 Tyseley, Birmingham Wolverhampton3 Coventry Derby4 Eastcroft, Nottingham Manchester5 Stoke Sunderland

Table: Case regions and theirmatched control regions

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Data

LSOA data:Population Count

Deprivation Score (IMD)

Health Outcomes

Health outcomes:Childhood cancer incidence (<15 yr)

Childhood leukaemia incidence (<15 yr)

Leukaemia incidence

Liver cancer incidence

Lung cancer incidence

Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma incidence

All cause mortality

Infant mortality (<1 yr)

Liver cancer mortality

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Region Maps

Distribution of Deprivation Score in Coventry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Distribution of Infant Mortality in Coventry

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Region Maps

Liver Cancer Mortality − Coventry

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

All Cause Mortality − Coventry

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Continuous function for distance

Yijk ∼ Poisson(µijk)

µijk = Eijkexp(α + βωijk + εi + ηυj)g(d)

whereg(d) = 1 + ζexp(−(d/γ)2)

and

Yijk Disease count in ith pair, jth circle, kth LSOAEijk Expected count per LSOAωijk IMDεi Circle Pair (i=1,...,5)υj Case Control status (j=0,1)d Distance of centre of LSOA to centre of circleζ Elevation in risk at sourceγ Rate of decay of risk with distance from incinerator

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Continuous function for distance

Yijk ∼ Poisson(µijk)

µijk = Eijkexp(α + βωijk + εi + ηυj)g(d)

whereg(d) = 1 + ζexp(−(d/γ)2)

and

Yijk Disease count in ith pair, jth circle, kth LSOAEijk Expected count per LSOAωijk IMDεi Circle Pair (i=1,...,5)υj Case Control status (j=0,1)d Distance of centre of LSOA to centre of circleζ Elevation in risk at sourceγ Rate of decay of risk with distance from incinerator

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Other Models

g(d) =

{1 + γ : d ≤ δ1 : d > δ

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Other Models

g(d) = 1 + θ1exp(−(dθ2exp(−κcos(dir − φ)))2)

A spatialanalysis of thehealth effectsof industrialincinerators

Nicola Reeve

StudyDescription

Regions

Data

Region Maps

ContinuousFunction

Other models

Questions?