A Spatial Model of Emerald Ash Borer Spread in New York StateHerb SusmannIntroduction to GIS12/9/12

Introduction• Invasive species• Highly destructive• Spread by insect flight, human activities• Less than 1% of New York forests infested• 700 million trees at risk

http://datcpservices.wisconsin.gov/eab/images/eabhome.jpghttp://www.emeraldashborer.info/images/EABadultsideview.jpg

http://www.bauermeistertree.com/uploads/8/5/1/2/8512477/6713457_orig.jpghttp://www.dec.ny.gov/images/lands_forests_images/eablarva1.jpg

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/collections/special/columns/news_cut/content_images/ash_borer.jpg

http://www.dec.ny.gov/images/lands_forests_images/eabquarmap.jpg

Research Question

Can we predict how the emerald ash borer will spread across New York State?

The Model• Simulates EAB Spread• Infested cells have a chance of infecting nearby cells• Can spread long distances to campgrounds

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Infection Probabilities

Insect Flight

Moving Firewood

Data• Population – Price Data• Ash Basal Area – US Forest Service• Campgrounds – Multiple Online Sources• 2012 Infested Area – DEC Map

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Model

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ArcMap

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Future Work• Integrate more sources of spread• Collect more data• Expand to other invasive species